Because of its location in the heart of the Bay Area, then having a total
population of about 260,000, and its magnitude, variously estimated as
between 6.8 and 7.0, this earthquake was one of the most destructive in
California history. Property loss was extensive and 30 people were killed.
USGS scientists describe the Hayward fault as a tectonic time bomb, due
anytime for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Because such a quake
could cause hundreds of deaths, leave thousands homeless, and devastate
the region’s economy, the USGS and other organizations are working
together with new urgency to help prepare Bay Area communities for this
certain future quake.
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults,
and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working
Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake
forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability
(or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater
striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043.
The next major earthquake to strike the San Francisco Bay Area will most
likely result from rupture of the Hayward or Rodgers Creek faults. New
models show that these faults are directly connected at the surface, which
enables simultaneous rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults, a
scenario that could result in a major earthquake.
Self-guided field trips to one of North America’s most dangerous
earthquake faults, the Hayward Fault. Locations were chosen because of
their easy access using mass transit and/or their significance relating to
the natural and cultural history of the East Bay landscape.
A detailed geologic and architectural field guide to 11 stops along the
Hayward Fault, including UC Berkeley Campus and Memorial Stadium, Point
Pinole, Cragmont School in Berkeley, Oakland City Hall, and old City Hall
in Hayward and it includes discussion of the 1868 earthquake. This guide
was published by the Geological Society of America in 2006 as part of the
1906 San Francisco Earthquake Centennial Meeting.
Field Guide to the Hayward Fault (29 MB pdf)
Download a 2001 U.S. Geological Survey Field Guide to the Hayward Fault
in Downtown Hayward and at the Caldecott Tunnel (between Orinida and
Oakland) and to the 1998 Fremont Peak landslide.
This web site was created in 2008 to help coordinate and promote efforts
and activities between organizations throughout the greater San Francisco
Bay Area planning to commemorate the 140th anniversary of the earthquake.