M 6.4 - 4 km SSE of Indios, Puerto Rico
- 2020-01-07 08:24:27 (UTC)
- 17.958°N 66.811°W
- 6.0 km depth
Aftershock Forecast
- The data below are the most preferred data available
- The data below have been reviewed by a scientist
- Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
- More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
- When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
- No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.
Magnitude (M) of aftershock | within 1 Day | within 1 Week | within 1 Month | within 1 Year |
---|---|---|---|---|
M 7or higher | very low probability of 1 or more | very low probability of 1 or more | 1 in 10,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 500 chance of 1 or more |
M 6or higher | very low probability of 1 or more | 1 in 3,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 600 chance of 1 or more | 2% chance of 1 or more |
M 5or higher | 1 in 2,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 300 chance of 1 or more | 2% chance of 1 or more | 17% chance of 1 or more |
M 4or higher | 1 in 200 chance of 1 or more | 4% chance of 1 or more | 15% chance of 1 or more | 84% chance of 1 or more |
M 3or higher | 5% chance of 1 or more | 32% chance of 1 or more | 81% chance of 1 or more | Expect about 23 |
The rate of aftershocks is expected to decline with time. However, the probabilities in the longer time windows are higher because the rates are being summed over a longer time period.