M 6.4 - 4 km SSE of Indios, Puerto Rico

  • 2020-01-07 08:24:27 (UTC)
  • 17.958°N 66.811°W
  • 6.0 km depth

Aftershock Forecast

Contributed by US last updated 2025-02-03 18:49:34 (UTC)
  • The data below are the most preferred data available
  • The data below have been reviewed by a scientist

  • Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
  • More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
  • When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
  • No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.
According to our forecast, the expected number of aftershocks:
Magnitude (M) of aftershockwithin 1 Day within 1 Week within 1 Month within 1 Year
M 7or higher very low probability of 1 or more very low probability of 1 or more 1 in 10,000 chance of 1 or more 1 in 500 chance of 1 or more
M 6or higher very low probability of 1 or more 1 in 3,000 chance of 1 or more 1 in 600 chance of 1 or more 2% chance of 1 or more
M 5or higher 1 in 2,000 chance of 1 or more 1 in 300 chance of 1 or more 2% chance of 1 or more 17% chance of 1 or more
M 4or higher 1 in 200 chance of 1 or more 4% chance of 1 or more 15% chance of 1 or more 84% chance of 1 or more
M 3or higher 5% chance of 1 or more 32% chance of 1 or more 81% chance of 1 or moreExpect about 23

The rate of aftershocks is expected to decline with time. However, the probabilities in the longer time windows are higher because the rates are being summed over a longer time period.