M 6.4 - 4 km SSE of Indios, Puerto Rico
- 2020-01-07 08:24:27 (UTC)
- 17.958°N 66.811°W
- 6.0 km depth
Aftershock Forecast
- The data below are the most preferred data available
- The data below have been reviewed by a scientist
- Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
- More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
- When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
- No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.
USGS Aftershock Forecast: What we think will happen next
According to our forecast, there is a 19% chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 5, which can be damaging, within the next year. There will likely be smaller aftershocks within the next year, with up to 98 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and higher aftershocks are large enough to be felt nearby. The number of aftershocks will decrease over time, but a large aftershock can temporarily increase the number of aftershocks.
This forecast applies to the area where the earthquake and aftershocks are already occurring.
About this earthquake and related aftershocks
At the time of this forecast, there have been 2549 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks, which are strong enough to be felt nearby, and 15 magnitude 5 or higher aftershocks, which are large enough to do damage.
Our detailed aftershock forecast
The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks within the next year until January 2, 2026 00:00 (UTC) as follows:
There is a more than 99% chance of magnitude 3 and above aftershocks within the next year, and it is most likely that 12 to 98 of these will occur. There is a 86% chance of magnitude 4 and above aftershocks within the next year, and it is most likely that 0 to 11 of these will occur. There is a 19% chance of magnitude 5 and above aftershocks within the next year, and it is most likely that 0 to 2 of these will occur. There is a 2% chance of magnitude 6 and above aftershocks within the next year, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability. There is a 1 in 100 chance (0.8%) that this earthquake becomes a foreshock to a larger earthquake (magnitude 6.4 or greater) in the next year, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability. There is a 1 in 400 chance (0.2%) of magnitude 7 and above aftershocks within the next year, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
About our aftershock forecasts
Our forecast changes as time passes, particularly during the first 72 hours after a mainshock. These changes happen because of three things: the usual decrease of aftershocks as time goes on, larger aftershocks that trigger more activity, and changes in forecast modeling due to ongoing data collection.
More information about how we developed our forecast models.