PAGER - M 8.6 - OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: YELLOW

Download Alert PDFWhat's this?Wednesday, April 11th, 2012 at 08:38:36 UTC (14:38:36 local)Location: 2.3° N, 93.1° EDepth: 20kmEvent Id: USC000905EAlert Version: 7Created: 1 week, 1 day after earthquake.
Global Location
FOR TSUNAMI INFORMATION, SEE: tsunami.noaa.gov.

Alert Information

Yellow alert level for shaking-related fatalities. Some casualties are possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Past events with this alert level have required a local or regional level response. Green alert level for economic losses. There is a low likelihood of damage.
Estimated FatalitiesFatality Alert Level: YELLOW
ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: YELLOW
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)
 
29
1 to 9 (YELLOW)
 
35
10 to 99 (YELLOW)
 
26
100 to 999 (ORANGE)
 
9
1 to 10 thousand (RED)1
10 to 100 thousand (RED)0
100 thousand + (RED)0
Estimated Economic LossesEconomic Alert Level: GREEN
ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)
 
50
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)
 
32
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)
 
15
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)
 
3
1 to 10 billion (RED)0
10 to 100 billion (RED)0
100 billion + (RED)0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli IntensityIII-IIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXX
Est. Population Exposure---*20k*10,935k*1,988k*210k401k000
Perceived ShakingNot FeltWeakLightModerateStrongVery StrongSevereViolentExtreme
Potential Structure DamageResistantnonenonenoneV. LightLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. Heavy
VulnerablenonenonenoneLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. HeavyV. Heavy
*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area
Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Population Exposure Map

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are nonductile reinforced concrete frame and concrete/cinder block masonry construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)Dist (km)MagMax MMI (#)Shaking Deaths
1993-09-013416.3VII (50k)0
2004-12-263279IX (237k)0
2002-11-023397.2VIII (2k)3

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis and landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.
MMICityPopulation
VIIMeulaboh35k
VIIBanda Aceh251k
VSigli18k
IVSabang25k
IVBireun26k
IVPangkalanbrandan26k
IVBinjai229k
IVPercut311k
IVMedan1,751k
IVSunggal158k
IVPematangsiantar210k

(k = x1,000)

Historical Events Map
Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#Date/TimeMagLat, Lon, DepthCountryMax MMI (Exposed)DeathsSecondary Effects
ShakingTotal
11976-06-20
20:53 UTC
73.44° N, 96.25° E
15km
IDVII (3 k)00
21976-06-21
07:17 UTC
5.83.43° N, 96.38° E
18km
IDV (313 k)00
31976-10-30
09:24 UTC
5.63.57° N, 96.3° E
16km
IDV (302 k)00
41979-09-29
18:37 UTC
6.81.16° N, 94.17° E
37km
IDIV (61 k)00
51982-10-31
02:48 UTC
5.42.92° N, 96° E
43km
IDVI (15 k)00
61993-09-01
14:03 UTC
6.32.97° N, 96.07° E
33km
IDVII (50 k)00
71994-10-31
11:48 UTC
6.13.04° N, 96.19° E
30km
IDVII (4 k)00
81995-03-14
10:27 UTC
5.43.09° N, 95.85° E
30km
IDVI (8 k)00
91995-11-08
07:14 UTC
6.91.82° N, 95.02° E
19km
IDV (74 k)00
101995-11-22
13:27 UTC
5.83.11° N, 95.91° E
26km
IDVII (4 k)00
112002-11-02
01:26 UTC
7.22.82° N, 96.09° E
32km
IDVIII (2 k)33
122002-11-02
09:46 UTC
6.32.94° N, 96.38° E
36km
IDVII (9 k)00
132002-11-13
15:53 UTC
5.52.98° N, 96.01° E
33km
IDVI (29 k)00
142004-12-26
00:58 UTC
93.27° N, 95.86° E
22km
IDIX (237 k)0227898landslide, tsunami
152004-12-27
06:59 UTC
5.62.96° N, 95.51° E
28km
IDVII (1 k)00
162004-12-27
09:39 UTC
65.29° N, 94.59° E
35km
IDVI (103)00
172004-12-27
20:10 UTC
5.72.89° N, 95.57° E
9km
IDVI (18 k)00
182004-12-28
11:17 UTC
5.74.71° N, 95.17° E
36km
IDVI (33 k)00
192005-01-01
01:55 UTC
5.72.9° N, 95.56° E
26km
IDVII (18 k)00
202005-01-02
08:27 UTC
5.83.23° N, 95.44° E
8km
IDVI (108)00
212005-02-24
07:35 UTC
5.62.93° N, 95.66° E
30km
IDVII (4 k)00
222005-02-26
12:56 UTC
6.72.84° N, 95.5° E
27km
IDVIII (19 k)00
232005-03-17
23:20 UTC
5.74.87° N, 95.07° E
45km
IDVI (44 k)00
242005-03-28
16:44 UTC
5.52.08° N, 96.47° E
32km
IDVII (514)00
252005-03-28
23:37 UTC
5.62.89° N, 96.4° E
30km
IDVII (175)00
262005-03-29
05:16 UTC
5.92.67° N, 96.57° E
39km
IDVII (18 k)00
272005-03-30
16:19 UTC
6.22.95° N, 95.41° E
28km
IDIX (108)00
282005-03-30
17:29 UTC
5.62.92° N, 95.4° E
27km
IDVII (108)00
292005-09-10
16:57 UTC
5.84.84° N, 95.01° E
41km
IDVI (44 k)00
302005-10-11
15:05 UTC
5.94.79° N, 95.08° E
30km
IDVII (594)00
312005-12-18
04:23 UTC
5.72.86° N, 95.92° E
21km
IDVIII (481)00
322006-01-31
19:15 UTC
5.92.62° N, 96.02° E
24km
IDVIII (5 k)00
332006-08-11
20:54 UTC
6.22.39° N, 96.32° E
22km
IDIX (3 k)00
342006-12-17
21:10 UTC
5.84.82° N, 95.02° E
36km
IDVI (28 k)00
352007-04-07
09:51 UTC
6.12.91° N, 95.67° E
27km
IDVIII (1 k)00
362007-04-27
08:02 UTC
5.95.33° N, 94.61° E
30km
IDV (605 k)00

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.