PAGER - M 5.6 - BULGARIA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012 at 00:00:32 UTC (03:00:32 local)Location: 42.6° N, 23° EDepth: 10kmEvent Id: USB0009UYXAlert Version: 3Created: 1 week, 1 day after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	65
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	30
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	4
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	65
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	30
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	4
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	5,681k*	1,163k	1,040k	122k	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and nonductile reinforced concrete frame construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1985-04-30	379	5.6	VII (55k)	0
1978-06-20	211	6.2	VIII (28k)	50
1979-04-15	324	6.9	IX (40k)	156

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
VI	Pernik	82k
VI	Batanovtsi	3k
VI	Breznik	4k
VI	Radomir	15k
V	Bozhurishte	4k
V	Slivnitsa	8k
V	Sofia	1,153k
IV	Kyustendil	48k
IV	Vratsa	65k
IV	Blagoevgrad	71k
IV	Plovdiv	340k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1974-04-17 01:31 UTC	5.6	45.97° N, 21.14° E 33km	RO	VII (254 k)	0	0
2	1975-03-27 05:15 UTC	5.5	40.42° N, 26.14° E 4km	TR	VI (2 k)	0	0
3	1977-11-03 02:22 UTC	5.5	42.11° N, 24.01° E 17km	BG	VII (4 k)	0	0
4	1978-05-23 23:34 UTC	5.8	40.73° N, 23.31° E 9km	GR	VIII (644)	0	0
5	1978-06-19 10:31 UTC	5.3	40.73° N, 23.26° E 8km	GR	VII (3 k)	1	1
6	1978-06-20 20:03 UTC	6.2	40.76° N, 23.3° E 8km	GR	VIII (28 k)	50	50
7	1978-06-24 00:14 UTC	5.5	41.71° N, 20.27° E 7km	AL	VII (14 k)	0	0
8	1978-07-04 22:23 UTC	4.6	40.72° N, 23.11° E 7km	GR	VI (20 k)	1	1
9	1979-04-15 06:19 UTC	6.9	42° N, 19.15° E 15km	RS	IX (40 k)	156	129	tsunami
10	1979-04-15 14:43 UTC	5.8	42.29° N, 18.72° E 19km	RS	VIII (261)	0	0
11	1979-05-24 17:23 UTC	6.2	42.24° N, 18.83° E 9km	RS	VIII (362)	0	0
12	1980-05-18 20:02 UTC	5.9	43.27° N, 20.92° E 5km	RS	VIII (460)	0	0	landslide
13	1980-07-09 02:11 UTC	6.6	39.26° N, 23.01° E 17km	GR	IX (10 k)	1	1
14	1980-07-09 02:35 UTC	6.3	39.23° N, 22.63° E 39km	GR	VII (319 k)	0	0
15	1982-01-18 19:27 UTC	6.6	39.95° N, 24.39° E 15km	GR	VIII (29)	0	0
16	1982-11-16 23:41 UTC	5.6	40.78° N, 19.67° E 22km	AL	VIII (3 k)	1	1
17	1983-02-25 18:22 UTC	4.7	41.96° N, 21.54° E 24km	MK	VII (8 k)	0	12
18	1983-08-06 15:43 UTC	6.6	40.11° N, 24.77° E 15km	GR	VII (115)	0	0
19	1984-03-03 08:32 UTC	4.2	43.32° N, 20.99° E 15km	RS	VI (17)	0	0
20	1984-09-07 00:44 UTC	5.1	43.29° N, 21.03° E 10km	RS	VII (8)	0	0
21	1985-04-30 18:14 UTC	5.6	39.24° N, 22.84° E 29km	GR	VII (55 k)	0	0
22	1985-09-28 14:50 UTC	5.2	41.53° N, 22.3° E 21km	MK	VII (250)	0	0
23	1986-12-07 14:17 UTC	5.6	43.28° N, 26° E 5km	BG	VIII (4)	3	3
24	1987-08-14 06:24 UTC	4.7	43.73° N, 20.4° E 6km	RS	VI (3 k)	0	0
25	1988-01-09 01:02 UTC	5.9	41.21° N, 19.76° E 24km	AL	VIII (71 k)	0	0
26	1990-12-21 06:57 UTC	6.1	40.98° N, 22.35° E 11km	GR	VII (3)	1	1
27	1991-07-12 10:42 UTC	5.5	45.39° N, 20.98° E 15km	RO	VIII (814)	2	2
28	1991-07-18 11:56 UTC	5.6	44.89° N, 22.47° E 12km	RO	VII (3 k)	0	0	landslide
29	1991-12-02 08:49 UTC	5.5	45.5° N, 21.12° E 15km	RO	VIII (2 k)	0	0
30	1994-09-01 16:12 UTC	5.6	41.17° N, 21.24° E 20km	MK	VIII (19)	0	0
31	1995-05-13 08:47 UTC	6.5	40.14° N, 21.71° E 13km	GR	VIII (64 k)	0	0
32	1998-09-29 22:14 UTC	5.5	44.2° N, 20.09° E 15km	RS	VII (20 k)	0	1
33	2002-04-24 10:51 UTC	5.7	42.42° N, 21.53° E 8km	RS	VIII (8 k)	1	1
34	2002-05-24 20:42 UTC	4.7	44.73° N, 21.67° E 7km	RO	VI (7 k)	0	0
35	2003-07-06 19:10 UTC	5.7	40.45° N, 26.08° E 7km	TR	VI (5 k)	0	0
36	2004-11-23 02:26 UTC	5.4	40.3° N, 20.65° E 12km	AL	VII (6 k)	0	0
37	2006-02-20 17:20 UTC	4.6	41.71° N, 25.54° E 10km	BG	VI (3 k)	0	0
38	2006-06-13 14:15 UTC	4.5	40.27° N, 19.96° E 10km	AL	VI (3 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
VI	Pernik	82k
VI	Batanovtsi	3k
VI	Breznik	4k
VI	Radomir	15k
V	Bozhurishte	4k
V	Slivnitsa	8k
V	Kostinbrod	12k
V	Zemen	2k
V	Sofia	1,153k
V	Bobovdol	6k
V	Dragoman	4k
V	Trun	3k
IV	Godech	5k
IV	Pirot	41k
IV	Dupnitsa	35k
IV	Svoge	9k
IV	Sapareva Banya	5k
IV	Kyustendil	48k
IV	Bukhovo	3k
IV	Elin Pelin	7k
IV	Samokov	27k
IV	Boboshevo	2k
IV	Vratsa	65k
IV	Rila	3k
IV	Gorna Malina	2k
IV	Kocherinovo	3k
IV	Vurshets	8k
IV	Berkovitsa	15k
IV	Radovnica	1k
IV	Blagoevgrad	71k
IV	Botevgrad	21k
IV	Ikhtiman	14k
IV	Plovdiv	340k
IV	Pleven	119k
IV	Dolna Banya	5k
IV	Kriva Palanka	21k
IV	Mezdra	12k
IV	Makedonska Kamenica	8k
IV	Delchevo	17k
IV	Pravets	4k
IV	Dolna Mitropoliya	3k
IV	Mirkovo	2k
IV	Chiprovtsi	2k
III	Simitli	7k
III	Etropole	11k
III	Chavdar	1k
III	Montana	47k
III	Chelopech	2k
III	Rankovce	4k
III	Yakoruda	6k
III	Krivodol	4k
III	Belitsa	3k
III	Vranje	56k
III	Razlog	12k
III	Kratovo	10k
III	Zlatitsa	6k
III	Roman	4k
III	Stara Kresna	4k
III	Orizari	4k
III	Nis	250k
III	Boychinovtsi	2k
III	Belovo	4k
III	Xiropotamos	3k
III	Vinica	18k
III	Kochani	34k
III	Zletovo	3k
III	Pirdop	8k
III	Lesichevo	1k
III	Bansko	9k
III	Probishtip	13k
III	Panagyurishte	19k
III	Gradec	1k
III	Blatec	0
III	Pehcevo	2k
III	Pazardzhik	76k
III	Yablanitsa	3k
III	Zrnovci	3k
III	Obleshevo	5k
III	Septemvri	9k
III	Kresna	4k
III	Cesinovo	2k
III	Berovo	14k
III	Anton	2k
III	Vladimirovo	1k
III	Arachinovo	13k
III	Borovan	3k
III	Ilinden	16k
III	Velingrad	24k
III	Rusinovo	2k
III	Creshevo	1k
III	Bulachani	1k
III	Biljaca	2k
III	Teteven	11k
III	Staro Nagorichane	4k
III	Strelcha	5k
III	Ruzhintsi	1k
III	Marino	3k
III	Jurumleri	2k
III	Vasilevo	12k
III	Vidin	54k
III	Medkovets	3k
III	Koprivshtitsa	3k
III	Strumica	46k
III	Radishani	2k
III	Idrizovo	2k
III	Rajince	2k
III	Klechovce	2k
III	Karbinci	4k
III	Kadino	1k
III	Calafat	19k
III	Dunavtsi	3k
III	Velusa	2k
III	Skopje	475k
III	Bosilovo	12k
III	Shuto Orizari	0
III	Zujince	1k
III	Lukovit	10k
III	Cherven Bryag	22k
III	Belogradchik	6k
III	Studenichani	18k
III	Murtino	2k
III	Brusartsi	2k
III	Rakitovo	8k
III	Usje	1k
III	Kuklish	4k
III	Yakimovo	3k
III	Sopishte	9k
III	Batinci	3k
III	Sekirnik	1k
III	Miratovac	3k
III	Byala Slatina	13k
III	Orashac	1k
III	Lojane	2k
III	Ilovica	2k
III	Ciupercenii Noi	6k
III	Klisura	1k
III	Khayredin	2k
III	Podares	4k
III	Kumanovo	108k
III	Knjazevac	25k
III	Vaksince	2k
III	Shtip	48k
III	Radovish	25k
III	Oraovica	4k
III	Koynare	3k
III	Petroussa	2k
III	Bedinje	2k
III	Kamenica	0
III	Sveti Nikole	13k
III	Vulchedrum	5k
III	Strumyani	1k
III	Dimovo	1k
III	Krushopek	1k
III	Slupchane	3k
III	Romanovce	2k
III	Ugurchin	3k
III	Batak	4k
III	Ognjaci	1k
III	Morani	1k
III	Izvor	1k
III	Gorobinci	1k
III	Peshtera	19k
III	Saraj	25k
III	Matejche	3k
III	Lipkovo	28k
III	Grchec	1k
III	Bostane	0
III	Knezha	7k
III	Otlja	2k
III	Sredno Konjari	1k
III	Ivankovci	1k
III	Lom	27k
III	Bratsigovo	5k
III	Lozovo	3k
III	Dolno Kolicani	1k
III	Petrovec	8k
III	Suedinenie	6k
III	Gurmen	2k
III	Gotse Delchev	20k
III	Susica	2k
III	Miladinovci	1k
III	Miziya	4k
III	Gramada	2k
III	Desa	5k
III	Iskur	4k
III	Stamboliyski	12k
III	Sandanski	26k
III	Krichim	9k
III	Novo Selo	12k
III	Konce	3k
III	Petrich	30k
III	Ljubin	1k
III	Kondovo	12k
III	Chucher - Sandevo	9k
III	Rastu	4k
III	Viti	0
III	Satovcha	2k
III	Kozloduy	15k
III	Khisarya	8k
III	Piscu Vechi	5k
III	Poiana Mare	13k
III	Troyan	21k
III	Perushtitsa	5k
III	Kula	4k
III	Khadzhidimovo	3k
III	Veles	58k
III	Oryakhovo	6k
III	Dolni Dubnik	5k
III	Angistron	1k
III	Zelenikovo	4k
III	Stanica Zelenikovo	1k
III	Seaca de Cimp	2k
III	Bistretu	5k
III	Pristina	550k
III	Kaloyanovo	3k
III	Dospat	3k
III	Bechet	4k
III	Karlovo	20k
III	Gradsko	4k
III	Ostroveni	6k
III	Valandovo	4k
III	Negotino	20k
III	Gorno Orizari	2k
III	Macesu de Jos	2k
III	Gighera	4k
III	Lovech	42k
III	Borino	3k
III	Ano Poroia	2k
III	Goicea	5k
III	Podujevo	35k
III	Kacanik	0
III	Demir Kapija	4k
III	Fushe Kosove	0
III	Neon Petritsion	2k
III	Rosoman	4k
III	Pirava	2k
III	Macesu de Sus	2k
III	Devin	7k
III	Lipjan	0
III	Rodopolis	1k
III	Maglavit	6k
III	Calarasi	7k
III	Birca	4k
III	Bailesti	20k
III	Urosevac	0
III	Obiliq	0
III	Kharopon	2k
III	Miravci	3k
III	Caska	3k
III	Gingiova	3k
III	Dabuleni	14k
III	Afumati	3k
III	Kavadarci	39k
III	Apriltsi	4k
III	Kerkini	2k
III	Vatasa	3k
III	Sidirokastron	6k
III	Koimisis	1k
III	Urzicuta	3k
III	Silistea Crucii	2k
III	Sadova	8k
III	Ianca	4k
III	Motatei	8k
III	Grojdibodu	3k
III	Giurgita	3k
III	Izvor	696
III	Cetate	6k
III	Kalofer	3k
III	Neokhorion	1k
III	Nea Iraklia	3k
III	Khrisokhorafa	1k
III	Star Dojran	3k
III	Bogdanci	9k
III	Stefan cel Mare	2k
III	Galicea Mare	5k
III	Stimlje	35k
III	Valteron	1k
III	Bukovik	1k
III	Bojane	2k
III	Valea Stanciului	6k
III	Cioroiasu	2k
III	Rakovski	16k
III	Vamvakofiton	1k
III	Vratnica	4k
III	Dobresti	3k
III	Nerashte	3k
III	Orlea	5k
III	Giubega	4k
III	Ceratu	4k
III	Asenovgrad	52k
III	Volax	1k
III	Jegunovce	7k
III	Strpce	0
III	Sadovo	3k
III	Dobroste	3k
III	Lipovu	3k
III	Prsovce	2k
III	Krusevac	75k
III	Pordim	2k
III	Gyovren	1k
III	Chepelare	5k
III	Vadastrita	4k
III	Daneti	7k
III	Luki	3k
III	Tearce	23k
III	Larce	1k
III	Konopiste	327
III	Bogomila	1k
III	Segarcea	8k
III	Amarastii de Jos	6k
III	Slatino	3k
III	Mikropolis	1k
III	Zhelino	25k
III	Sedlarevo	1k
III	Dobarce	1k
III	Vadastra	4k
III	Corabia	20k
III	Amarastii de Sus	4k
III	Slavyanovo	5k
III	Gulyantsi	4k
III	Bucinisu	2k
II	Dzepciste	8k
II	Strimnica	2k
II	Prosotsani	4k
II	Gurgurnica	1k
II	Crniliste	1k
II	Visina	3k
II	Apele Vii	2k
II	Gjilan	0
II	Miki	1k
II	Desovo	1k
II	Celopek	5k
II	Celaru	5k
II	Smolyan	32k
II	Miletino	2k
II	Rotunda	3k
II	Gircov	3k
II	Castra-Nova	4k
II	Samokov	1k
II	Dolneni	12k
II	Studina	5k
II	Islaz	6k
II	Paracin	6k
II	Varos	3k
II	Prilep	74k
II	Vladila	2k
II	Redea	3k
II	Izbiceni	5k
II	Giuvarasti	3k
II	Vitoliste	456
II	Tia Mare	5k
II	Diosti	3k
II	Cilieni	4k
II	Lazani	2k
II	Traian	3k
II	Rusanesti	5k
II	Nikopol	4k
II	Makedonski Brod	6k
II	Deveselu	3k
II	Turnu Magurele	29k
II	Segarcea Vale	4k
II	Lunca	6k
II	Lita	3k
II	Zitose	2k
II	Tuin	1k
II	Slobozia-Mindra	4k
II	Scarisoara	3k
II	Caracal	34k
II	Rudozem	4k
II	Srbica	2k
II	Krivogashtani	6k
II	Plopii Slavitesti	5k
II	Babiciu	2k
II	Ciuperceni	2k
II	Plasnica	5k
II	Obrsani	1k
II	Krushevo	5k
II	Kanatlarci	1k
II	Oslomej	102
II	Stoenesti	2k
II	Gostavatu	3k
II	Madan	6k
II	Topolcani	3k
II	Jagodina	36k
II	Strelci	2k
II	Bucin	1k
II	Vinica	0
II	Glogovac	73k
II	Lisicani	1k
II	Sprincenata	3k
II	Kallithea	1k
II	Vranestica	1k
II	Cringeni	4k
II	Calmatuiu	3k
II	Dolno Srpci	1k
II	Salcia	3k
II	Radomiresti	4k
II	Putineiu	3k
II	Sopotnica	2k
II	Pakhni	1k
II	Slepce	1k
II	Demir Hisar	2k
II	Ekhinos	2k
II	Maldaeni	5k
II	Rosiori de Vede	31k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.