PAGER - M 7.1 - EASTERN TURKEY

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: RED

Download Alert PDFWhat's this?Sunday, October 23rd, 2011 at 10:41:21 UTC (12:41:21 local)Location: 38.7° N, 43.5° EDepth: 16kmEvent Id: USB0006BQCAlert Version: 8Created: 9 weeks, 5 days after earthquake.
Global Location

Alert Information

Red alert level for economic losses. Extensive damage is probable and the disaster is likely widespread. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of Turkey. Past events with this alert level have required a national or international level response. Orange alert level for shaking-related fatalities. Significant casualties are likely.
Estimated FatalitiesFatality Alert Level: ORANGE
ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: ORANGE
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)1
1 to 9 (YELLOW)
 
6
10 to 99 (YELLOW)
 
21
100 to 999 (ORANGE)
 
35
1 to 10 thousand (RED)
 
27
10 to 100 thousand (RED)
 
9
100 thousand + (RED)1
Estimated Economic LossesEconomic Alert Level: RED
ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: RED
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)0
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)1
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)
 
9
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)
 
26
1 to 10 billion (RED)
 
35
10 to 100 billion (RED)
 
21
100 billion + (RED)
 
6

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli IntensityIII-IIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXX
Est. Population Exposure---*75k*4,838k*10,935k2,188k395k402k00
Perceived ShakingNot FeltWeakLightModerateStrongVery StrongSevereViolentExtreme
Potential Structure DamageResistantnonenonenoneV. LightLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. Heavy
VulnerablenonenonenoneLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. HeavyV. Heavy
*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area
Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Population Exposure Map

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and nonductile reinforced concrete frame construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)Dist (km)MagMax MMI (#)Shaking Deaths
1992-03-133536.6IX (151k)498
1975-09-062386.7VIII (1k)2370
1976-11-24637IX (33k)3900

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.
MMICityPopulation
VIIIVan372k
VIIErcis92k
VIISarmansuyu7k
VIIOzalp8k
VIIGevas12k
VIAdilcevaz53k
VIBitlis0
VIHakkari78k
VSirnak53k
VArmavir3k
VArtashat21k

(k = x1,000)

Historical Events Map
Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#Date/TimeMagLat, Lon, DepthCountryMax MMI (Exposed)DeathsSecondary Effects
ShakingTotal
11975-01-12
04:39 UTC
540.59° N, 41.96° E
35km
TRVI (19 k)00
21975-01-14
22:07 UTC
5.135.4° N, 44.81° E
15km
IQV (59 k)00
31975-09-06
09:20 UTC
6.738.51° N, 40.76° E
39km
TRVIII (1 k)23702370
41975-11-14
12:32 UTC
4.738.61° N, 40.7° E
41km
TRV (70 k)00
51975-12-30
14:36 UTC
4.638.6° N, 40.53° E
32km
TRV (149 k)33
61976-03-25
11:55 UTC
4.840.94° N, 42.95° E
35km
TRVI (1 k)11
71976-04-02
16:58 UTC
4.639.8° N, 43.69° E
25km
TRVI (7 k)44
81976-04-29
22:18 UTC
5.540.94° N, 42.87° E
7km
TRVII (2 k)44
91976-07-02
08:50 UTC
4.338.45° N, 40.07° E
30km
TRV (70 k)00
101976-07-09
09:34 UTC
4.238.33° N, 40.46° E
33km
TRV (49 k)11
111976-09-05
22:07 UTC
5.138.46° N, 40.94° E
18km
TRVII (229)00
121976-11-24
12:22 UTC
739.08° N, 44.03° E
9km
TRIX (33 k)39003900
131977-02-21
13:02 UTC
4.639.91° N, 40.03° E
33km
TRV (53 k)00
141977-03-25
02:39 UTC
5.338.65° N, 40.06° E
17km
TRVII (1 k)3030
151977-05-26
01:35 UTC
5.638.9° N, 44.32° E
17km
IRVIII (158)33
161978-02-15
03:17 UTC
4.839.64° N, 39.87° E
7km
TRVI (14 k)00
171980-12-18
14:31 UTC
4.835.79° N, 44.39° E
33km
IQIV (2 k)00
181980-12-19
13:42 UTC
4.935.62° N, 44.45° E
20km
IQV (167)00
191981-07-23
00:05 UTC
5.837.09° N, 45.2° E
34km
IRVIII (404)00
201983-10-30
04:12 UTC
6.640.33° N, 42.17° E
15km
TRIX (4 k)14001400
211983-11-18
01:15 UTC
5.439.76° N, 39.47° E
17km
TRVII (120 k)00
221984-09-18
13:26 UTC
5.540.89° N, 42.24° E
10km
TRVII (3 k)33
231984-10-18
09:46 UTC
5.440.71° N, 42.45° E
35km
TRVI (55 k)33
241984-12-03
07:38 UTC
5.737.96° N, 43.1° E
10km
TRVIII (21)00
251985-11-07
08:26 UTC
5.240.38° N, 42.34° E
35km
TRVI (38 k)00
261986-05-13
08:44 UTC
5.741.41° N, 43.7° E
10km
GEVIII (2 k)22
271986-08-18
09:49 UTC
4.935.87° N, 44.4° E
33km
IQIV (8 k)00
281988-12-07
07:41 UTC
6.740.92° N, 44.12° E
7km
AMIX (50 k)2500025000
291988-12-07
07:45 UTC
5.940.93° N, 44.21° E
16km
AMVIII (1 k)00
301991-04-24
10:54 UTC
4.539.61° N, 41.17° E
35km
TRV (35 k)11
311991-07-24
09:45 UTC
5.536.6° N, 44.06° E
20km
IQVII (2 k)2020
321992-03-13
17:18 UTC
6.639.72° N, 39.62° E
26km
TRIX (151 k)498652landslide
331992-03-15
16:16 UTC
5.939.51° N, 39.94° E
31km
TRVIII (2 k)00
341993-02-17
07:22 UTC
5.435.49° N, 42.59° E
44km
IQVI (6 k)00
351994-12-30
06:56 UTC
4.738.18° N, 39.67° E
10km
TRVI (9 k)00
361995-12-05
18:49 UTC
5.839.48° N, 40.14° E
14km
TRVIII (199)00
371997-08-08
02:39 UTC
4.539.84° N, 41.91° E
10km
TRVI (3 k)00
381998-04-13
15:14 UTC
5.239.32° N, 41.12° E
15km
TRVII (1 k)00
391999-12-03
17:06 UTC
5.740.48° N, 42.35° E
6km
TRVIII (286)11landslide
402000-08-19
21:26 UTC
4.139.7° N, 41.13° E
33km
TRV (9 k)00
412000-11-15
15:05 UTC
5.538.43° N, 42.97° E
32km
TRVII (1 k)00
422001-05-29
13:14 UTC
4.639.83° N, 41.68° E
34km
TRV (91 k)00
432001-07-10
21:42 UTC
5.439.82° N, 41.62° E
38km
TRVI (67 k)00
442002-04-25
17:41 UTC
4.841.77° N, 44.86° E
35km
GEVI (269 k)55landslide
452003-01-27
05:26 UTC
639.5° N, 39.85° E
16km
TRVIII (3 k)11
462003-05-01
00:27 UTC
6.338.97° N, 40.45° E
14km
TRIX (209)177177landslide
472003-07-13
01:48 UTC
5.538.28° N, 38.94° E
15km
TRVII (8 k)00
482004-03-25
19:30 UTC
5.639.8° N, 40.72° E
56km
TRVI (19 k)1010
492004-03-28
03:51 UTC
5.639.91° N, 40.91° E
44km
TRVI (407 k)00landslide
502004-07-01
22:30 UTC
5.139.74° N, 43.91° E
27km
TRVII (755)1818
512004-07-30
07:14 UTC
4.839.69° N, 43.94° E
20km
TRVI (2 k)11
522004-08-11
15:48 UTC
5.638.35° N, 39.23° E
5km
TRVII (1 k)11
532005-01-25
16:44 UTC
5.937.65° N, 43.68° E
38km
TRVII (25 k)22
542005-03-12
07:36 UTC
5.639.36° N, 40.97° E
19km
TRVIII (13)00landslide
552005-03-23
21:44 UTC
5.639.36° N, 40.87° E
16km
TRVIII (12)00
562005-06-06
07:41 UTC
5.639.3° N, 41.07° E
3km
TRVIII (1 k)00
572007-01-21
07:38 UTC
5.239.59° N, 42.86° E
3km
TRVII (109)00
582007-02-09
02:22 UTC
5.538.39° N, 39.04° E
2km
TRVII (4 k)00
592007-02-21
11:05 UTC
5.738.32° N, 39.28° E
6km
TRVIII (37)00
MMICityPopulation
VIIIVan372k
VIIErcis92k
VIISarmansuyu7k
VIIOzalp8k
VIIGevas12k
VIAdilcevaz53k
VIBahcesaray4k
VIBaskale15k
VIAhlat65k
VIPatnos87k
VIKonalga2k
VIBitlis0
VIDiyadin18k
VIHizan15k
VIMezrea4k
VITaslicay5k
VIPervari6k
VIDogankoy2k
VIGokcekoru1k
VIBulanik31k
VITatvan73k
VIBeytussebap8k
VIHakkari78k
VISalmas82k
VIGuroymak26k
VIKhvoy175k
VIBogazoren1k
VIBasaran1k
VIMalazgirt26k
VIKarakoyunlu5k
VIQareh Zia' od Din32k
VIMutki6k
VIPshatavan2k
VIYuksekova72k
VIUludere9k
VKaracoban20k
VArazap1k
VYemisli2k
VMargara1k
VAygeshat2k
VArgavand2k
VSirvan6k
VOrtakoy1k
VGundes1k
VTandzut2k
VKorkut8k
VYeghegnut2k
VArevik2k
VEleskirt19k
VYeraskhahun1k
VEruh8k
VArak's1k
VSirnak53k
VArmavir26k
VNoramarg2k
VMetsamor9k
VApaga2k
VGay3k
VHaykashen1k
VHovtashen1k
VCukurca9k
VSis1k
VGriboyedov2k
VHamur4k
VBaykan11k
VGetashen2k
VShenavan2k
VNalbandyan4k
VJanfida3k
VNor Armavir2k
VKumcati5k
VKarayazi7k
VNoyakert2k
VZorak1k
VArmavir3k
VNizami1k
VSayat'-Nova2k
VYeghegnavan1k
VAvshar4k
VSovetakan2k
VBambakashat3k
VSurenavan2k
VAygavan4k
VArmash2k
VArarat29k
VHoktember5k
VLenughi2k
VSadarak2k
VKagizman25k
VVosketap'4k
VShahumyan4k
VMrgavan2k
VMrgashat5k
VHinis35k
VDogubayazit70k
VBaggoze1k
VVostan3k
VDalar3k
VBurastan2k
VBerkanush2k
VArtashat21k
VAralek2k
VMyasnikyan3k
VMetsamor1k
VSisavan2k
VAygezard3k
VAygepat1k
VZhdanov2k
VAknalich3k
VDimitrov1k
VSilopi75k
VKurtalan32k
VKayabaglar6k
VLukashin2k
VDalarik3k
VByuravan1k
VTaronik2k
VAknashen1k
VMrgavet2k
VArevabuyr1k
VZakho95k
VYenikend2k
VVedi12k
VKhoronk'2k
VAygestan2k
VNshavan2k
VHovtashat3k
VBozalan2k
VVerin Artashat4k
VNorashen3k
VMrganush1k
VArshaluys4k
VArevshat2k
VVoskehat2k
VKozluk30k
VGetazat2k
VArtimet2k
VNaxcivan65k
VSemdinli19k
VDoruklu1k
VKars77k
VVerin Dvin2k
VSamaghar2k
VHovtamej1k
VDvin3k
VSason11k
VCizre81k
VEjmiatsin50k
VTsaghkunk'1k
VTsiatsan1k
VVarto19k
VArteni3k
VNorakert2k
VAghavnatun3k
VGuclukonak5k
VBespinar1k
VZangakatun1k
VDoghs1k
VAygeshat1k
VAmberd1k
VCulfa11k
VAshnak1k
VAreni2k
VRrind1k
VVoskevaz4k
VOshakan5k
VMasis19k
VKosh3k
VAgarak2k
VNor Sasunik2k
VGozpinar4k
VHorasan17k
VT'alin5k
VDargecit21k
VBozhuyuk1k
VKilavuz2k
VAghavnadzor2k
VByurakan4k
VAshtarak19k
VKaralar5k
VIdil23k
VNor Yerznka1k
VSahbuz3k
VMarand124k
VGetap'2k
VKarbi4k
VYeghegnadzor0
VAgarakadzor1k
VUshi1k
VTekman8k
VIkikopru4k
VSarikamis24k
VYeghvard11k
VZarrit'ap'1k
VShatin2k
VMalishka4k
VGladzor2k
VDzit'hank'ov1k
VByureghavan7k
VArzni2k
VVayk'5k
VZoravan1k
VNor Geghi5k
VKotayk'2k
VHasankeyf4k
VSelim5k
VVernashen1k
VAgri92k
VArtabuynk'1k
VNor Gyugh1k
VMayakovski2k
VOrtaca3k
VKulp27k
VAltinkum2k
VLerrnakert1k
VKaputan1k
VArgel3k
VPasinler25k
VShenavan2k
VPemzashen2k
VMaralik5k
VAragats3k
VFantan1k
VZovuni4k
VBuzhakan2k
VGercus9k
VT'azagyugh2k
VMadina1k
VArzakan3k
VOrdubad10k
VSilvan66k
VKasakh4k
VBjni3k
VAnushavan2k
VYolagzi3k
VOzbek1k
VBesiri10k
VBaristepe1k
VVerin Getashen4k
VSpandaryan1k
VSolak2k
VLichk'4k
VHnaberd2k
VKaranlukh5k
VDzoragyugh4k
VAramus3k
VAkunk'2k
VVardadzor2k
VYayvantepe2k
VYeranos4k
VTsaghkahovit2k
VPokr Mantash2k
VMets Mant'ash2k
VMarmarashen3k
VHayanist2k
VJrahovit1k
VArevshat2k
VArevashat1k
VAparan6k
VVaghashen3k
VSarukhan6k
VNerk'in Getashen7k
VMeghrashen1k
VMartuni11k
VLerrnanist3k
VOshnaviyeh51k
VMidyat76k
VHisarkoy2k
VJermuk5k
VLanjaghbyur2k
VHrazdan41k
VAstghadzor4k
VGandzak4k
VAcirli8k
VHats'avan15k
VTsaghkadzor1k
VYolbasi5k
VGelinkaya6k
VCavuslu9k
VSenkaya4k
VShaghat1k
VBrrnakot'2k
VGavarr22k
VNarman10k
VAngeghakot'2k
VVardenik8k
VMeghradzor3k
VAghavnadzor1k
VTall Kayf24k
VSogutlu8k
VSenkoy9k
VSarikoy1k
VKayapinar5k
VHazro6k
VSusuz4k
VHorrom2k
VTsovinar4k
VSaratak1k
VLchashen4k
VGagarin1k
VAzar Shahr37k
VSivrice1k
VMeghri5k
VZovaber1k
VNoratus5k
VLchap'1k
VGeghamavan2k
VDdmashen2k
VArtsvanist3k
VYukarisalat7k
VIcoren2k
VVarser2k
VTsovazard2k
VTsaghkaber1k
VRawandoz23k
VCalpinar1k
VArpacay5k
VSevan17k
VMusayelyan2k
VLice16k
VKayalipinar1k
VZarr1k
VMets Parni2k
VKarchaghbyur2k
V`Ajab Shir30k
VToptepe1k
VTortum9k
VGole12k
VTepeustu1k
VTepealti1k
VKutlubey2k
VIlica13k
VGenc22k
VOltu24k
VTsovagyugh4k
VMargahovit3k
VVanadzor101k
VShahumyan2k
VGarrni7k
VFioletovo1k
VUckavak1k
VTsovak3k
VGugark'5k
VGoght'2k
VAmasia2k
VAbovyan1k
VNaqadeh74k
VBonab80k
VBaskavak2k
VBazum1k
VAkunk'3k
VKamaris2k
VSavur9k
VDzorastan1k
VVardenis11k
VDrakhtik1k
VDilijan13k
VBismil74k
VShinuhayr2k
VKapan33k
VPtghunk'1k
VMusalerr2k
VDashtavan2k
VOmerli7k
VNusaybin89k
VKocakoy6k
VBuyukkardes1k
VAralik2k
VAkarsu5k
VBrrun1k
VMets Masrik3k
VGeghamasar1k
VJrashen2k
VYedisu2k
VAydinlar3k
VVerishen2k
VGoris20k
VVahagni1k
VBaghramyan2k
VAygek1k
VSenocak2k
VSurgucu4k
VPinardere4k
VOymatas2k
VKoseli1k
VDereyani1k
VUzundere6k
VYeghegnut1k
VVahan1k
VHaghartsin3k
VGyulagarak2k
VChambarak6k
VVardablur1k
VYesilalan4k
VSinankoy2k
VKazanci1k
VIsgoren1k
VOlur4k
VAbovyan36k
VUctepe2k
VKhndzoresk2k
VPrroshyan4k
VDsegh2k
VAgarak1k
VYenipinar1k
VAmbar5k
VLorut1k
VKalbacar0
VOguz3k
VAskale15k
VTegh2k
VYaprakbasi1k
VGetahovit2k
VIjevan15k
VSiirt114k
VMahabad162k
VNavur1k
VMrgashen2k
VKhasht'arrak2k
VMiandoab133k
VGokcebag3k
VGadabay9k
VEymirli1k
VYusufeli7k
VIspir13k
VBerd8k
VAzatamut2k
VArtsvaberd3k
VAygehovit3k
VKiziltepe150k
VPazaryolu6k
VMosesgegh2k
VYuxari Daskasan2k
VDaskasan0
VDarbasiyah21k
VSenyurt2k
VParravak'ar2k
VAgdam0
VMus83k
VHocakoy2k
VDarpas2k
VTovuz13k
VArbat'2k
VSamkir35k
VZayam7k
VAran1k
VDalilar4k
VErzurum421k
IVXanlar18k
IVNorabats'2k
IVDarakert2k
IVBukan213k
IVAl Hasakah82k
IVDogankavak2k
IVPtghni1k
IVBalahovit3k
IVHemsin3k
IVBartsrashen1k
IVQarayeri6k
IVGanca303k
IVKarliova9k
IVGuneysu6k
IVShirak1k
IVDzoraghbyur2k
IVBinatli2k
IVRize93k
IVMerdzavan3k
IVKamo1k
IVKaynakkaya2k
IVYerazgavors1k
IVAydinkonak1k
IVLerrnapat2k
IVGhukasavan2k
IVErkoklu1k
IVBatman302k
IVGeghanist2k
IVLernavan2k
IVArgavand2k
IVVoskehask2k
IVArevik2k
IVShirakamut2k
IVJrashen3k
IVAzatan4k
IVSina129k
IVSaramech1k
IVHaykavan1k
IVSpitak1k
IVK'anak'erravan3k
IVAkhuryan8k
IVMarmashen2k
IVMayisyan2k
IVGogaran1k
IVArrap'i2k
IVSarahart'1k
IVGyumri148k
IVYerevan1,093k
IVOrumiyeh577k
IVYayli2k
IVArevashogh2k
IVSolhan15k
IVSpitak15k
IVTabriz1,425k
IVOrtakoy5k
IVYesilli32k
IVKabala9k
IIIMardin71k

(k = x1,000)


PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.