PAGER - M 6.1 - OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Tuesday, August 24th, 2010 at 02:12:00 UTC (19:12:00 local)Location: 18.9° N, 107.3° WDepth: 10kmEvent Id: US2010AIADAlert Version: 1Created: 4 weeks, 1 day after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	90
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	9
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	90
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	9
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	0
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	434k*	647k	0	0	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1989-08-29	197	6.5	IV (454k)	0
1995-10-09	328	8	VIII (89k)	49
2003-01-22	344	7.5	VII (300k)	29

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
IV	San Patricio	7k
IV	Puerto Vallarta	187k
IV	Cihuatlan	17k
IV	Bucerias	9k
IV	Ixtapa	19k
IV	Tomatlan	8k
IV	Manzanillo	111k
IV	Autlan de Navarro	42k
IV	El Salto	23k
III	Tepic	281k
III	Ixtlan del Rio	22k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-01-22 00:37 UTC	6.2	18.51° N, 105.11° W 2km	MX	V (121 k)	0	0
2	1973-10-18 10:49 UTC	6.8	19.32° N, 105.05° W 24km	MX	VIII (14 k)	0	0
3	1981-03-09 22:38 UTC	5.9	18.73° N, 104.02° W 30km	MX	VII (111 k)	0	0
4	1989-08-29 04:16 UTC	6.5	18.02° N, 105.69° W 27km	MX	IV (454 k)	0	0
5	1995-10-06 05:13 UTC	5.8	18.79° N, 104.45° W 28km	MX	VII (52 k)	0	0
6	1995-10-09 15:35 UTC	8	19.05° N, 104.21° W 26km	MX	VIII (89 k)	49	58	landslide, tsunami
7	1995-10-12 16:52 UTC	5.9	18.85° N, 104.01° W 24km	MX	VIII (788)	0	0
8	1995-10-18 23:02 UTC	5.4	19.29° N, 105° W 23km	MX	VII (9 k)	0	0
9	1995-12-11 14:09 UTC	6.3	18.78° N, 105.56° W 10km	MX	V (40 k)	0	0
10	1997-05-01 11:37 UTC	6.9	18.86° N, 107.37° W 17km	MX	IV (928 k)	0	0
11	2001-04-29 21:26 UTC	6.1	18.75° N, 104.53° W 18km	MX	VI (49 k)	0	0
12	2001-05-08 05:15 UTC	5.5	18.84° N, 104.11° W 34km	MX	VII (3 k)	0	0
13	2001-05-20 04:21 UTC	6.3	18.91° N, 104.44° W 18km	MX	VIII (26)	0	0
14	2003-01-22 02:06 UTC	7.5	18.9° N, 104.06° W 24km	MX	VII (300 k)	29	29	landslide, tsunami
15	2003-01-22 19:41 UTC	5.9	18.92° N, 104.29° W 41km	MX	VII (107 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
IV	San Patricio	7k
IV	Cihuatlan	17k
IV	Puerto Vallarta	187k
IV	Bucerias	9k
IV	Ixtapa	19k
IV	Valle de Banderas	6k
IV	Tomatlan	8k
IV	Manzanillo	111k
IV	Las Juntas	6k
IV	Las Varas	13k
IV	La Huerta	8k
IV	Purificacion	5k
IV	Lo Arado	4k
IV	Compostela	16k
IV	Talpa de Allende	8k
IV	San Juan de Abajo	9k
IV	Casimiro Castillo	11k
IV	Mascota	8k
IV	Santa Maria del Oro	4k
IV	La Tijera	6k
IV	Autlan de Navarro	42k
IV	El Salto	23k
IV	Zacualpan	5k
IV	Ayutla	8k
IV	San Blas	9k
IV	Jalcocotan	4k
IV	Amatlan de Canas	3k
III	San Pedro Lagunillas	4k
III	Tepic	281k
III	Ahuacatlan	6k
III	Jala	9k
III	Ixtlan del Rio	22k
III	Puga	6k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.