PAGER - M 7.9 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: RED

Download Alert PDFWhat's this?Monday, May 12th, 2008 at 06:28:01 UTC (14:28:01 local)Location: 31° N, 103.4° EDepth: 19kmEvent Id: US2008RYANAlert Version: 1Created: 123 weeks, 4 days after earthquake.
Global Location

Alert Information

Red alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread. Past red alerts have required a national or international response. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of China.
Estimated FatalitiesFatality Alert Level: RED
ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: RED
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)0
1 to 9 (YELLOW)0
10 to 99 (YELLOW)0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)1
1 to 10 thousand (RED)
 
17
10 to 100 thousand (RED)
 
57
100 thousand + (RED)
 
25
Estimated Economic LossesEconomic Alert Level: RED
ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: RED
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)0
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)0
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)1
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)
 
13
1 to 10 billion (RED)
 
38
10 to 100 billion (RED)
 
36
100 billion + (RED)
 
11

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli IntensityIII-IIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXX
Est. Population Exposure---*---*1,547k*63,801k*18,835k4,006k1,245k528k2k
Perceived ShakingNot FeltWeakLightModerateStrongVery StrongSevereViolentExtreme
Potential Structure DamageResistantnonenonenoneV. LightLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. Heavy
VulnerablenonenonenoneLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. HeavyV. Heavy
*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area
Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Population Exposure Map

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and ductile reinforced concrete frame construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)Dist (km)MagMax MMI (#)Shaking Deaths
1973-02-062757.7IX (31k)2199
1974-05-103186.8IX (23k)1541
1981-01-232156.5IX (6k)126

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.
MMICityPopulation
VIIITianpeng61k
VIIMianyang264k
VIIJiangyou127k
VIChengdu3,950k
VIGuangyuan213k
VILinqiong56k
VNeijiang547k
VNanchong7,150k
VGaoping204k
VZigong690k
VChongqing3,967k

(k = x1,000)

Historical Events Map
Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#Date/TimeMagLat, Lon, DepthCountryMax MMI (Exposed)DeathsSecondary Effects
ShakingTotal
11973-02-06
10:37 UTC
7.731.36° N, 100.5° E
6km
CNIX (31 k)21992199
21973-02-07
16:06 UTC
5.831.47° N, 100.29° E
10km
CNVIII (122)00
31973-08-11
07:15 UTC
6.132.92° N, 104.02° E
7km
CNVIII (2 k)00
41973-09-09
02:13 UTC
5.531.56° N, 99.99° E
11km
CNVII (8 k)00
51974-01-15
22:50 UTC
5.732.93° N, 104.09° E
15km
CNVIII (130)00
61974-05-10
19:25 UTC
6.828.18° N, 103.99° E
10km
CNIX (23 k)15411541
71975-01-15
11:34 UTC
629.41° N, 101.74° E
34km
CNVIII (157)00
81976-08-16
14:06 UTC
6.732.75° N, 104.09° E
11km
CNIX (2 k)00
91976-08-21
21:49 UTC
6.332.56° N, 104.23° E
22km
CNIX (133)00
101976-08-23
03:30 UTC
6.432.48° N, 104.18° E
7km
CNIX (2 k)4141
111981-01-23
21:13 UTC
6.530.94° N, 101.11° E
5km
CNIX (6 k)126126
121982-06-15
23:24 UTC
5.631.87° N, 99.87° E
10km
CNVIII (18)1111
131985-03-29
11:15 UTC
4.929.35° N, 104.95° E
35km
CNVI (539 k)22
141986-08-06
19:55 UTC
5.329.28° N, 100.75° E
11km
CNVII (181)22
151987-01-07
18:19 UTC
5.434.28° N, 103.34° E
10km
CNVII (921)00
161989-04-25
02:13 UTC
6.130° N, 99.38° E
7km
CNVIII (456)00
171989-05-03
05:53 UTC
6.230.08° N, 99.45° E
13km
CNIX (15)00landslide
181989-05-03
15:41 UTC
5.830.06° N, 99.51° E
3km
CNVIII (70)00
191989-07-21
03:09 UTC
5.630° N, 99.36° E
6km
CNVII (518)33
201989-09-22
02:25 UTC
6.131.53° N, 102.41° E
9km
CNVIII (4 k)11
211989-11-20
03:18 UTC
4.529.94° N, 106.83° E
33km
CNIII (2,529 k)77
221989-11-20
03:21 UTC
5.229.88° N, 106.83° E
25km
CNVII (493)44
231997-08-13
08:13 UTC
4.829.42° N, 105.56° E
35km
CNIV (337 k)00
241999-08-17
10:41 UTC
4.829.35° N, 105.51° E
35km
CNIV (257 k)00
252001-02-23
00:09 UTC
5.629.46° N, 101.08° E
7km
CNVIII (14)33
262001-06-23
02:48 UTC
4.829.32° N, 105.49° E
35km
CNIV (277 k)00
272002-04-30
04:56 UTC
4.829.46° N, 105.65° E
33km
CNIV (580 k)00
282003-11-14
18:49 UTC
5.627.46° N, 103.97° E
35km
CNVII (12 k)44
292006-06-20
16:52 UTC
4.933.07° N, 104.95° E
24km
CNVI (90 k)00landslide
302006-07-22
01:10 UTC
4.928° N, 104.14° E
55km
CNV (292 k)022landslide
312006-08-25
05:51 UTC
528.01° N, 104.15° E
21km
CNVII (159)11landslide
MMICityPopulation
VIIITianpeng61k
VIIMianyang264k
VIIJiangyou127k
VIChengdu3,950k
VIGuangyuan213k
VILinqiong56k
VIDeyang152k
VITongchuan58k
VDongxi4k
VLeshan154k
VNanlong63k
VLangzhong61k
VPuji2k
VSuining125k
VChangchi2k
VZiyang87k
VHanzhong146k
VXialiang2k
VNeijiang547k
VNanchong7,150k
VZengjia1k
VLuocheng74k
VChonglong58k
VGaoping204k
VZigong690k
VYongchuan94k
VChongqing3,967k
VHechuan98k
VJiangjin61k
VKangding100k
VYudong81k
IVBeibei112k
IVPuhechang2k

(k = x1,000)


PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.