M 4.5 - 2025 Orcas Island, Washington
- 2025-03-03 13:02:37 (UTC)
- 48.611°N 122.805°W
- 15.8 km depth
Aftershock Forecast
- The data below are the most preferred data available
- The data below have NOT been reviewed by a scientist.
- Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
- More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
- When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
- No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.
| Magnitude (M) of aftershock | within 1 Day | within 1 Week | within 1 Month | within 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M 7or higher | 1 in 900,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 100,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 40,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 10,000 chance of 1 or more |
| M 6or higher | 1 in 90,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 10,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 4,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 1,000 chance of 1 or more |
| M 5or higher | 1 in 9,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 1,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 400 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 100 chance of 1 or more |
| M 4or higher | 1 in 900 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 100 chance of 1 or more | 2% chance of 1 or more | 8% chance of 1 or more |
| M 3or higher | 1% chance of 1 or more | 6% chance of 1 or more | 18% chance of 1 or more | 45% chance of 1 or more |
The rate of aftershocks is expected to decline with time. However, the probabilities in the longer time windows are higher because the rates are being summed over a longer time period.