M 4.2 - 266 km SW of Port McNeill, Canada

  • 2024-10-02 15:35:45 (UTC)
  • 48.812°N 129.570°W
  • 10.0 km depth

Aftershock Forecast

Contributed by US last updated 2025-03-26 15:45:56 (UTC)
  • The data below are the most preferred data available
  • The data below have NOT been reviewed by a scientist.

  • Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
  • More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
  • When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
  • No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.

Reasenberg-Jones (1989, 1994) aftershock model (Bayesian Combination)

Parameters

a
-3.22
b
1
magMain
4.2
p
1.08
c
0.018
aSigma
0.601
pSigma
0
Mcat
3.5
F
0.5
G
0.25
H
1
regionType
circle
regionCenterLat
48.8116
regionCenterLon
-129.5695
regionRadius
10