M 6.9 - Maug Islands region, Northern Mariana Islands
- 2023-11-24 09:05:03 (UTC)
- 20.132°N 145.520°E
- 22.2 km depth
Aftershock Forecast
- The data below are the most preferred data available
- The data below have NOT been reviewed by a scientist.
- Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
- More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
- When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
- No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.
| Magnitude (M) of aftershock | within 1 Day | within 1 Week | within 1 Month | within 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M 7or higher | 1 in 6,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 800 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 200 chance of 1 or more | 5% chance of 1 or more |
| M 6or higher | 1 in 600 chance of 1 or more | 1% chance of 1 or more | 5% chance of 1 or more | 37% chance of 1 or more |
| M 5or higher | 2% chance of 1 or more | 11% chance of 1 or more | 39% chance of 1 or more | Expect about 4 |
| M 4or higher | 16% chance of 1 or more | 70% chance of 1 or more | Expect about 5 | Expect about 46 |
| M 3or higher | 82% chance of 1 or more | Expect about 12 | Expect about 50 | Expect about 464 |
The rate of aftershocks is expected to decline with time. However, the probabilities in the longer time windows are higher because the rates are being summed over a longer time period.