PAGER - M 5.3 - PAKISTAN

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Monday, November 19th, 2012 at 17:54:08 UTC (22:54:08 local)Location: 30.5° N, 67.5° EDepth: 14kmEvent Id: USC000DUZZAlert Version: 3Created: 1 week, 0 days after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	65
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	30
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	4
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	65
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	30
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	4
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	4,455k*	734k	30k	8k	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1990-11-16	299	4.7	IV (601k)	0
1981-12-12	75	4.6	V (486k)	6
1997-02-27	84	7.1	VIII (139k)	60

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
VI	Alik Ghund	8k
IV	Khadan Khak	7k
IV	Pishin	24k
IV	Harnai	11k
III	Mach	17k
III	Loralai	38k
III	Sibi	64k
III	Quetta	734k
III	Kot Malik	69k
III	Chaman	89k
III	Kandahar	391k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-01-20 12:34 UTC	5.6	29.3° N, 68.63° E 17km	PK	VIII (11)	0	0
2	1975-03-24 05:33 UTC	5.5	29.62° N, 68.65° E 4km	PK	VII (2 k)	0	0
3	1975-10-03 05:14 UTC	6.7	30.24° N, 66.29° E 1km	AF	IX (901)	0	0
4	1975-10-03 17:31 UTC	6.4	30.39° N, 66.35° E 1km	PK	IX (55)	0	0
5	1977-07-13 08:09 UTC	5.5	29.87° N, 67.33° E 9km	PK	VII (967)	0	0
6	1978-05-06 11:16 UTC	5.9	29.8° N, 66.13° E 16km	PK	VIII (103)	0	0
7	1980-10-27 20:12 UTC	5.1	29.21° N, 70.14° E 33km	PK	IV (373 k)	0	0
8	1980-11-03 21:44 UTC	4.7	29.31° N, 70.13° E 35km	PK	IV (121)	0	0
9	1980-11-04 15:35 UTC	4.9	29.27° N, 70.19° E 35km	PK	IV (186 k)	0	0
10	1981-12-12 20:26 UTC	4.6	29.91° N, 67.08° E 35km	PK	V (486 k)	6	6
11	1982-03-24 14:27 UTC	4.7	28.24° N, 69.24° E 33km	PK	IV (117 k)	0	0
12	1982-05-01 17:42 UTC	5.2	31.59° N, 71.42° E 29km	PK	V (3 k)	0	0
13	1984-01-18 14:08 UTC	5.6	28.01° N, 65.75° E 10km	PK	VIII (24)	0	0
14	1985-05-06 03:04 UTC	5.9	30.85° N, 70.27° E 17km	PK	VIII (2 k)	0	0
15	1986-01-19 14:45 UTC	4.9	30.8° N, 70.26° E 24km	PK	VII (720)	0	0
16	1989-05-12 00:40 UTC	4.7	32.26° N, 71.1° E 33km	PK	IV (33 k)	0	0
17	1990-03-04 19:46 UTC	6	28.9° N, 66.36° E 5km	PK	IX (156)	11	11
18	1990-06-17 04:51 UTC	6.1	27.41° N, 65.7° E 12km	PK	VIII (735)	6	6
19	1990-07-26 06:53 UTC	5.9	27.35° N, 65.58° E 15km	PK	VIII (48)	0	0
20	1990-09-08 19:33 UTC	5.5	27.53° N, 66.1° E 34km	PK	VII (17 k)	0	0
21	1990-11-16 04:18 UTC	4.7	29.88° N, 70.58° E 33km	PK	IV (601 k)	0	0
22	1992-01-20 08:58 UTC	5.5	27.54° N, 66.09° E 20km	PK	VII (5 k)	0	0
23	1992-02-05 23:10 UTC	5.5	31.43° N, 66.86° E 17km	AF	VII (2 k)	0	0
24	1992-04-24 07:07 UTC	6	27.54° N, 66.1° E 20km	PK	VIII (6 k)	0	0
25	1992-08-28 00:50 UTC	5.5	29.21° N, 66.82° E 6km	PK	VII (4 k)	4	4
26	1993-11-16 15:52 UTC	5.6	30.8° N, 67.22° E 35km	PK	VII (29 k)	0	0
27	1994-06-03 22:40 UTC	5.9	28.72° N, 70.06° E 33km	PK	VIII (486)	0	0
28	1995-05-31 13:51 UTC	5.5	30.26° N, 67.96° E 18km	PK	VII (1 k)	0	0
29	1995-06-11 21:55 UTC	5.6	32.57° N, 69.69° E 29km	PK	VII (77 k)	0	0
30	1996-10-01 16:14 UTC	4.7	32.37° N, 70.6° E 35km	PK	III (1,255 k)	0	0
31	1997-02-27 21:08 UTC	7.1	29.95° N, 68.19° E 24km	PK	VIII (139 k)	60	57	landslide
32	1997-02-27 21:30 UTC	6	29.99° N, 67.95° E 24km	PK	VIII (2 k)	0	0
33	1997-03-04 13:03 UTC	5.7	29.41° N, 68.75° E 38km	PK	VII (11 k)	0	0
34	1997-03-20 08:50 UTC	5.9	30.12° N, 68.02° E 27km	PK	VIII (2 k)	0	0
35	1997-08-24 13:15 UTC	5.6	30.13° N, 67.94° E 15km	PK	VII (8 k)	0	0
36	1999-06-26 21:54 UTC	5.5	30° N, 69.43° E 29km	PK	VII (46 k)	0	0
37	1999-07-12 03:42 UTC	5.6	30.03° N, 69.42° E 31km	PK	VII (34 k)	0	0
38	1999-07-28 13:17 UTC	5.5	29.95° N, 69.41° E 13km	PK	VII (7 k)	0	0
39	2000-06-04 17:52 UTC	6	28.72° N, 65.27° E 12km	PK	VIII (445)	0	0
40	2000-08-10 11:26 UTC	4.8	29.8° N, 69.94° E 15km	PK	VI (2 k)	0	0
41	2002-07-13 20:06 UTC	5.7	30.66° N, 69.87° E 16km	PK	VIII (3 k)	0	0
42	2004-05-08 20:11 UTC	4.5	30.17° N, 67.07° E 35km	PK	V (914 k)	1	1
43	2004-07-18 08:31 UTC	5.2	33.34° N, 69.48° E 6km	AF	VII (2 k)	2	2
44	2005-03-02 11:12 UTC	4.9	30.38° N, 68.04° E 51km	PK	V (53 k)	0	0
45	2006-01-05 14:47 UTC	4.7	31.81° N, 70.29° E 10km	PK	V (59 k)	0	0
46	2006-10-09 05:12 UTC	4.4	30.94° N, 66.54° E 10km	PK	VI (920)	0	0

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.