PAGER - M 6.3 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Tuesday, September 25th, 2012 at 23:45:24 UTC (16:45:24 local)Location: 24.7° N, 110.2° WDepth: 10kmEvent Id: USC000CW0LAlert Version: 5Created: 1 week, 0 days after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	65
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	30
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	4
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	65
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	30
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	4
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	1,723k*	1,271k	217k	0	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)
1995-08-28	156	6.5	V (326k)
1973-10-03	389	5.5	VII (49)
1995-06-30	15	5.7	VII (50)

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
V	La Paz	171k
IV	Topolobampo	8k
IV	Ciudad Constitucion	40k
IV	Higuera de Zaragoza	9k
IV	Ahome	11k
IV	Bagojo	4k
IV	Los Mochis	215k
IV	Guasave	68k
IV	San Jose del Cabo	49k
IV	Guamuchil	59k
III	Culiacan	582k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-10-03 04:27 UTC	5.5	27.48° N, 112.49° W 15km	MX	VII (49)	0	0
2	1974-05-31 14:05 UTC	6.4	27.53° N, 111.04° W 19km	MX	VI (16 k)	0	0
3	1975-09-24 17:19 UTC	5.8	25.17° N, 109.17° W 17km	MX	V (485 k)	0	0
4	1988-06-18 22:49 UTC	6.6	26.76° N, 110.98° W 9km	MX	V (652 k)	0	0
5	1990-03-16 15:52 UTC	6.1	24.83° N, 109.05° W 28km	MX	VI (61)	0	0
6	1995-06-30 11:58 UTC	6.2	24.7° N, 110.19° W 13km	MX	VI (20)	0	0
7	1995-06-30 13:41 UTC	5.7	24.53° N, 110.21° W 22km	MX	VII (50)	0	0
8	1995-08-28 10:46 UTC	6.5	26.05° N, 110.43° W 7km	MX	V (326 k)	0	0
9	2000-03-24 04:23 UTC	5.6	27.66° N, 111.24° W 25km	MX	VI (54 k)	0	0
10	2002-10-03 16:08 UTC	6.5	23.28° N, 108.57° W 28km	MX	VI (84)	0	0
11	2003-03-12 23:41 UTC	6.3	26.65° N, 110.56° W 32km	MX	VI (8 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
V	La Paz	171k
IV	Topolobampo	8k
IV	Ciudad Constitucion	40k
IV	Higuera de Zaragoza	9k
IV	Bagojo	4k
IV	Ahome	11k
IV	Los Mochis	215k
IV	Villa Insurgentes	9k
IV	San Miguel Zapotitlan	6k
IV	General Juan Jose Rios	26k
IV	Adolfo Ruiz Cortines	13k
IV	Mochicahui	5k
IV	Gabriel Leyva Solano	28k
IV	Guasave	68k
IV	El Burrion	4k
IV	Compuertas	4k
IV	La Trinidad	4k
IV	San Blas	6k
IV	Angostura	5k
IV	La Reforma	7k
IV	San Jose del Cabo	49k
IV	Guamuchil	59k
IV	Yavaros	4k
IV	Sinaloa de Leyva	4k
IV	Etchoropo	4k
III	Mocorito	5k
III	La Union	5k
III	Huatabampo	30k
III	El Fuerte	11k
III	Navolato	28k
III	Etchojoa	9k
III	San Lucas	43k
III	Culiacancito	4k
III	Campo Gobierno	21k
III	Villa Juarez	15k
III	Loreto	11k
III	Badiraguato	4k
III	Culiacan	582k
III	Costa Rica	22k
III	El Dorado	14k
III	Alamos	9k
III	Choix	8k
III	Pueblo Yaqui	15k
III	Quila	6k
III	El Tobarito	9k
III	Mulege	4k
III	El Rosario	15k
III	Constancia	6k
III	Santa Rosalia	12k
III	Todos Santos	4k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.