PAGER - M 6.3 - NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: YELLOW

Download Alert PDF What's this?Friday, June 29th, 2012 at 21:07:33 UTC (05:07:33 local)Location: 43.4° N, 84.7° EDepth: 18kmEvent Id: USB000AUE4Alert Version: 4Created: 1 week, 0 days after earthquake.

Alert Information

Yellow alert level for economic losses. Some damage is possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of China. Past events with this alert level have required a local or regional level response. Green alert level for shaking-related fatalities. There is a low likelihood of casualties.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	65
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	30
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	4
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: YELLOW
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	24
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	34
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	29
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	11
1 to 10 billion (RED)	2
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	1,009k*	5,664k	1,060k	9k	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1973-06-02	119	5.8	VII (1k)	0
1993-02-02	180	5.7	VII (80k)	4
2003-12-01	343	6	VIII (6k)	11

Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
V	Shihezi	573k
IV	Urumqi	1,508k
IV	Changji	199k
IV	Korla	179k
IV	Kuqa	68k
III	Dostyq	3k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-05-17 09:38 UTC	5.5	41.14° N, 82.19° E 5km	CN	VIII (8)	0	0
2	1973-06-02 23:57 UTC	5.8	44.14° N, 83.59° E 22km	CN	VII (1 k)	0	0
3	1979-03-29 02:01 UTC	5.6	41.99° N, 83.43° E 16km	CN	VII (9)	0	0
4	1980-11-06 01:34 UTC	5.7	43.77° N, 86.19° E 18km	CN	VIII (18)	0	0
5	1987-01-05 22:52 UTC	5.7	41.96° N, 81.31° E 16km	CN	VIII (28)	0	0
6	1993-02-02 16:05 UTC	5.7	42.2° N, 86.14° E 32km	CN	VII (80 k)	4	4
7	1998-07-28 04:51 UTC	5.1	41.75° N, 81.48° E 10km	CN	VI (29 k)	0	0
8	1999-03-15 10:42 UTC	5.4	41.77° N, 82.66° E 15km	CN	VII (1)	0	0
9	2003-12-01 01:38 UTC	6	42.88° N, 80.54° E 17km	CN	VIII (6 k)	11	11
10	2007-07-20 10:06 UTC	5.6	42.91° N, 82.38° E 10km	CN	VII (62)	0	0

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.