PAGER - M 4.0 - 1.4 km (0.9 mi) N of El Cerrito, CA
Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.
Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN
Download Alert PDFWhat's this?Monday, March 5th, 2012 at 13:33:20 UTC (05:33:20 local)Location: 37.9° N, 122.3° WDepth: 9kmEvent Id: NC71746766Alert Version: 3Created: 2 hours, 44 minutes after earthquake.
Alert Information
Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.
Estimated Fatalities
| ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 (GREEN) | 81 |
| 1 to 9 (YELLOW) | 19 |
| 10 to 99 (YELLOW) | 0 |
| 100 to 999 (ORANGE) | 0 |
| 1 to 10 thousand (RED) | 0 |
| 10 to 100 thousand (RED) | 0 |
| 100 thousand + (RED) | 0 |
Estimated Economic Losses
| ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 to 1 million (GREEN) | 65 |
| 1 to 10 million (YELLOW) | 30 |
| 10 to 100 million (YELLOW) | 4 |
| 100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE) | 0 |
| 1 to 10 billion (RED) | 0 |
| 10 to 100 billion (RED) | 0 |
| 100 billion + (RED) | 0 |
Detailed Information
| Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity | I | II-III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. Population Exposure | 5,319k* | 3,664k | 586k | 295k | 35k | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perceived Shaking | Not Felt | Weak | Light | Moderate | Strong | Very Strong | Severe | Violent | Extreme | |
| Potential Structure Damage | Resistant | none | none | none | V. Light | Light | Moderate | Moderate/Heavy | Heavy | V. Heavy |
| Vulnerable | none | none | none | Light | Moderate | Moderate/Heavy | Heavy | V. Heavy | V. Heavy | |
*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area
Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Structure Information Summary
Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist.
Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)
| Date (UTC) | Dist (km) | Mag | Max MMI (#) | Shaking Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984-11-26 | 320 | 5.1 | V (17k) | 0 |
| 2003-12-22 | 279 | 6.6 | VII (213) | 2 |
| 1989-10-18 | 102 | 6.9 | IX (3k) | 62 |
Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.
Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.
| MMI | City | Population |
|---|---|---|
| VI | El Cerrito | 23k |
| VI | East Richmond Heights | 3k |
| V | Kensington | 5k |
| V | Albany | 16k |
| V | El Sobrante | 14k |
| V | Rollingwood | 3k |
| IV | Oakland | 399k |
| III | San Francisco | 732k |
| I | San Jose | 895k |
| I | Sacramento | 468k |
| I | Stockton | 290k |
(k = x1,000)
| # | Date/Time | Mag | Lat, Lon, Depth | Country | Max MMI (Exposed) | Deaths | Secondary Effects | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaking | Total | |||||||
| 1 | 1975-08-01 20:20 UTC | 5.8 | 39.5° N, 121.4° W 6km | US | VIII (3 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1978-10-04 16:42 UTC | 5.4 | 37.39° N, 118.69° W 8km | US | VI (598) | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1979-08-06 17:05 UTC | 5.7 | 37.07° N, 121.6° W 8km | US | VIII (152) | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1980-01-24 19:00 UTC | 5.8 | 37.71° N, 121.73° W 15km | US | VII (31 k) | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1980-01-27 02:33 UTC | 5.8 | 37.74° N, 121.74° W 15km | US | VI (371 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 1980-05-25 16:33 UTC | 6.2 | 37.53° N, 118.83° W 11km | US | IX (72) | 0 | 0 | landslide |
| 7 | 1980-05-25 16:49 UTC | 5.9 | 37.55° N, 119.02° W 3km | US | VIII (16) | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 1980-05-25 19:44 UTC | 5.9 | 37.38° N, 118.84° W 4km | US | VII (2) | 0 | 0 | landslide |
| 9 | 1980-05-25 20:35 UTC | 5.9 | 37.44° N, 118.96° W 2km | US | VI (6 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 1980-05-25 20:59 UTC | 5.5 | 37.59° N, 118.83° W 10km | US | VII (660) | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 1980-05-26 12:24 UTC | 5.6 | 37.58° N, 118.9° W 2km | US | VII (2 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 1980-05-26 18:57 UTC | 5.7 | 37.56° N, 118.9° W 6km | US | VII (2 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 1980-05-27 14:50 UTC | 5.9 | 37.42° N, 118.8° W 1km | US | VIII (3) | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 1980-11-08 10:27 UTC | 7.3 | 41.11° N, 124.3° W 17km | US | IX (16 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 1981-09-30 11:53 UTC | 5.6 | 37.55° N, 118.8° W 15km | US | VII (591) | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 1983-05-02 23:42 UTC | 6.3 | 36.22° N, 120.3° W 10km | US | IX (29) | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 1983-05-02 23:46 UTC | 5.7 | 36.23° N, 120.29° W 8km | US | VIII (1 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 1983-07-09 07:40 UTC | 5.1 | 36.17° N, 120.37° W 1km | US | VII (10 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 1983-07-22 02:39 UTC | 5.7 | 36.2° N, 120.34° W 7km | US | VII (1 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 1983-08-24 13:36 UTC | 6.2 | 40.29° N, 124.62° W 24km | US | VII (2 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 1984-04-24 21:15 UTC | 6.2 | 37.31° N, 121.71° W 9km | US | IX (1) | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 1984-11-23 18:08 UTC | 5.8 | 37.34° N, 118.51° W 15km | US | VIII (8 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 1984-11-23 19:12 UTC | 5.5 | 37.44° N, 118.64° W 0km | US | VII (381) | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 1984-11-26 16:21 UTC | 5.1 | 37.29° N, 118.76° W 10km | US | V (17 k) | 0 | 0 | landslide |
| 25 | 1985-08-04 12:01 UTC | 6.1 | 36.14° N, 120.11° W 15km | US | IX (713) | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 1986-01-26 19:20 UTC | 5.4 | 36.75° N, 121.36° W 6km | US | VII (2 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 1986-03-31 11:55 UTC | 5.6 | 37.53° N, 121.59° W 6km | US | VII (117) | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 1986-07-20 14:29 UTC | 5.8 | 37.5° N, 118.45° W 15km | US | VIII (9) | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 1986-07-21 14:42 UTC | 6.2 | 37.5° N, 118.44° W 10km | US | VIII (375) | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 1986-07-21 14:51 UTC | 5.7 | 37.5° N, 118.37° W 9km | US | VIII (270) | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 1986-07-21 22:07 UTC | 5.4 | 37.64° N, 118.49° W 6km | US | VII (15) | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 1986-07-31 07:22 UTC | 5.5 | 37.46° N, 118.4° W 15km | US | VII (210) | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 1987-07-31 23:56 UTC | 6 | 40.39° N, 124.2° W 18km | US | VIII (4) | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 1988-06-27 18:43 UTC | 5.7 | 37.13° N, 121.88° W 13km | US | VIII (6) | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | 1989-08-08 08:13 UTC | 5.4 | 37.13° N, 121.93° W 15km | US | VII (4 k) | 1 | 1 | |
| 36 | 1989-10-18 00:04 UTC | 6.9 | 37.11° N, 121.77° W 11km | US | IX (3 k) | 62 | 63 | landslide, tsunami |
| 37 | 1991-08-17 19:29 UTC | 6.1 | 40.25° N, 124.11° W 16km | US | VIII (255) | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 1992-03-08 03:43 UTC | 5.4 | 40.26° N, 123.97° W 14km | US | VII (53) | 0 | 0 | |
| 39 | 1992-04-25 18:06 UTC | 7.2 | 40.35° N, 124.07° W 19km | US | IX (2 k) | 0 | 0 | landslide, liquefaction, tsunami |
| 40 | 1992-04-26 07:41 UTC | 6.5 | 40.55° N, 124.25° W 31km | US | IX (1 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 41 | 1992-04-26 11:18 UTC | 6.6 | 40.43° N, 124.41° W 25km | US | IX (40) | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 1994-09-12 12:23 UTC | 5.9 | 38.86° N, 119.71° W 5km | US | VIII (14 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 43 | 1994-12-26 14:10 UTC | 5.5 | 40.71° N, 124.04° W 26km | US | VII (85 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 1995-12-28 18:27 UTC | 5.5 | 38.78° N, 119.55° W 5km | US | VII (2 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 1997-01-22 07:17 UTC | 5.7 | 40.21° N, 124.29° W 15km | US | VII (151) | 0 | 0 | |
| 46 | 1998-08-12 14:10 UTC | 5.2 | 36.68° N, 121.53° W 9km | US | VII (1 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 47 | 1999-05-15 13:22 UTC | 5.5 | 37.45° N, 118.8° W 1km | US | VII (4) | 0 | 0 | |
| 48 | 2000-09-03 08:36 UTC | 5 | 38.38° N, 122.41° W 10km | US | VI (77 k) | 0 | 0 | |
| 49 | 2003-12-22 19:15 UTC | 6.6 | 35.62° N, 121.07° W 16km | US | VII (213) | 2 | 2 | landslide, liquefaction |
| 50 | 2004-09-28 17:15 UTC | 6 | 35.75° N, 120.32° W 5km | US | VII (160) | 0 | 0 | |
| MMI | City | Population |
|---|---|---|
| VI | El Cerrito | 23k |
| VI | East Richmond Heights | 3k |
| V | Kensington | 5k |
| V | Albany | 16k |
| V | El Sobrante | 14k |
| V | Rollingwood | 3k |
| V | Richmond | 103k |
| V | San Pablo | 31k |
| V | Pinole | 20k |
| V | Berkeley | 100k |
| V | Tara Hills | 6k |
| IV | Emeryville | 8k |
| IV | Hercules | 24k |
| IV | Belvedere | 2k |
| IV | Tiburon | 9k |
| IV | Rodeo | 9k |
| IV | Sausalito | 7k |
| IV | Orinda | 18k |
| IV | Oakland | 399k |
| IV | Benicia | 27k |
| IV | Piedmont | 11k |
| IV | Crockett | 3k |
| IV | Larkspur | 12k |
| IV | Moraga | 17k |
| IV | Vallejo | 120k |
| III | San Francisco | 732k |
| III | Strawberry | 5k |
| III | Lafayette | 25k |
| III | Corte Madera | 9k |
| III | Santa Venetia | 5k |
| III | Martinez | 37k |
| III | Mountain View | 2k |
| III | Vine Hill | 3k |
| III | Alameda | 70k |
| III | Mill Valley | 13k |
| III | San Rafael | 55k |
| III | Pacheco | 4k |
| III | Pleasant Hill | 34k |
| III | Daly City | 99k |
| III | Alamo | 18k |
| III | Kentfield | 7k |
| III | San Bruno | 40k |
| III | South San Francisco | 59k |
| III | American Canyon | 16k |
| III | Ross | 2k |
| III | San Anselmo | 12k |
| III | Waldon | 6k |
| III | Walnut Creek | 65k |
| III | San Leandro | 80k |
| III | Broadmoor | 4k |
| III | Concord | 126k |
| III | Brisbane | 3k |
| III | Colma | 1k |
| III | Fairfax | 7k |
| III | San Lorenzo | 23k |
| II | Danville | 43k |
| II | Pacifica | 36k |
| II | Diablo | 1k |
| II | Woodacre | 1k |
| II | Bolinas | 1k |
| II | San Ramon | 45k |
| II | Bay Point | 22k |
| II | Ashland | 23k |
| II | Castro Valley | 63k |
| II | Cherryland | 16k |
| II | Petaluma | 55k |
| II | Novato | 49k |
| II | Montara | 3k |
| II | Clayton | 11k |
| II | Fairfield | 106k |
| II | Moss Beach | 2k |
| II | Suisun City | 27k |
| II | Burlingame | 27k |
| II | Millbrae | 20k |
| II | Foster City | 29k |
| II | Bodega Bay | 2k |
| II | Hayward | 140k |
| II | Cotati | 7k |
| II | Pittsburg | 63k |
| II | Rohnert Park | 41k |
| II | Hillsborough | 10k |
| II | San Mateo | 90k |
| II | Union City | 67k |
| II | El Granada | 7k |
| II | Napa | 77k |
| II | Fairview | 10k |
| II | Half Moon Bay | 12k |
| II | Oakley | 27k |
| II | Atherton | 7k |
| II | Menlo Park | 29k |
| II | North Fair Oaks | 16k |
| II | Redwood City | 72k |
| II | San Carlos | 27k |
| II | Pleasanton | 67k |
| II | East Palo Alto | 33k |
| II | Portola Valley | 4k |
| II | Dublin | 39k |
| II | Temelec | 2k |
| II | Rio Vista | 7k |
| II | Roseland | 6k |
| II | Inverness | 1k |
| II | Sonoma | 10k |
| II | Green Valley | 2k |
| II | Occidental | 1k |
| I | Woodside | 5k |
| I | El Verano | 4k |
| I | Sebastopol | 8k |
| I | Union City | 70k |
| I | West Menlo Park | 4k |
| I | Boyes Hot Springs | 7k |
| I | Stanford | 13k |
| I | Palo Alto | 57k |
| I | Antioch | 106k |
| I | Brentwood | 47k |
| I | Newark | 43k |
| I | Vacaville | 96k |
| I | Yountville | 3k |
| I | Belmont | 24k |
| I | Bethel Island | 2k |
| I | Emerald Lake Hills | 4k |
| I | Eldridge | 2k |
| I | Graton | 2k |
| I | Los Altos Hills | 8k |
| I | Sunol | 1k |
| I | Los Altos | 27k |
| I | Santa Rosa | 155k |
| I | Livermore | 80k |
| I | Alum Rock | 14k |
| I | Boulder Creek | 4k |
| I | Discovery Bay | 12k |
| I | East Foothills | 8k |
| I | Fremont | 203k |
| I | Forestville | 2k |
| I | Los Gatos | 28k |
| I | Sunnyvale | 127k |
| I | Guerneville | 3k |
| I | Saratoga | 29k |
| I | Windsor | 25k |
| I | Loyola | 4k |
| I | Milpitas | 63k |
| I | Mountain View | 68k |
| I | San Jose | 895k |
| I | Lexington Hills | 3k |
| I | Monte Rio | 1k |
| I | Morgan Hill | 35k |
| I | Seven Trees | 2k |
| I | Campbell | 37k |
| I | Cupertino | 51k |
| I | Saint Helena | 6k |
| I | Santa Clara | 102k |
| I | Buena Vista | 2k |
| I | Burbank | 5k |
| I | Cambrian Park | 3k |
| I | Healdsburg | 11k |
| I | Middletown | 1k |
| I | Angwin | 3k |
| I | August | 9k |
| I | Calistoga | 5k |
| I | Carmichael | 51k |
| I | Citrus Heights | 89k |
| I | Cottonwood | 4k |
| I | Country Club | 10k |
| I | Davis | 66k |
| I | Deer Park | 1k |
| I | Dixon | 16k |
| I | El Dorado Hills | 25k |
| I | Elk Grove | 95k |
| I | Esparto | 2k |
| I | Fair Oaks | 29k |
| I | Florin | 30k |
| I | Folsom | 68k |
| I | Foothill Farms | 18k |
| I | French Camp | 5k |
| I | Galt | 24k |
| I | Garden Acres | 11k |
| I | Gold River | 9k |
| I | Grayson | 1k |
| I | Kennedy | 4k |
| I | La Riviera | 10k |
| I | Laguna | 47k |
| I | Lathrop | 13k |
| I | Lincoln Village | 4k |
| I | Linden | 1k |
| I | Lockeford | 3k |
| I | Lodi | 63k |
| I | Manteca | 66k |
| I | Monte Sereno | 3k |
| I | Morada | 4k |
| I | North Highlands | 46k |
| I | Orangevale | 27k |
| I | Patterson | 16k |
| I | Rancho Cordova | 59k |
| I | Rancho Murieta | 6k |
| I | Rio Linda | 11k |
| I | Ripon | 14k |
| I | Rosemont | 23k |
| I | Roseville | 113k |
| I | Sacramento | 468k |
| I | Salida | 17k |
| I | Stockton | 290k |
| I | Tracy | 83k |
| I | West Sacramento | 41k |
| I | Wilton | 5k |
| I | Winters | 7k |
| I | Woodland | 52k |
(k = x1,000)
PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.
