PAGER - M 4.0 - 18.9 km (11.8 mi) SSW of Ocotillo Wells, CA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Saturday, December 22nd, 2012 at 21:37:45 UTC (13:37:45 local)Location: 33° N, 116.2° WDepth: 4kmEvent Id: CI15267105Alert Version: 4Created: 1 day, 0 hours after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	99
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	1
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	99
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	1
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	0
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		3,687k*	2,998k	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1986-07-13	150	5.8	V (10m)	0
1991-06-28	214	5.6	VII (8k)	1
1994-01-17	252	6.7	IX (181k)	33

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
II	Borrego Springs	3k
II	Temecula	85k
II	Salton City	1k
II	Canyon Lake	12k
II	Seeley	2k
II	Wildomar	16k
II	Tijuana	1,376k
II	Mexicali	597k
II	Chula Vista	213k
II	Oceanside	161k
I	San Diego	1,223k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-02-21 14:45 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 119.05° W 6km	US	VIII (4 k)	0	0
2	1978-05-05 21:03 UTC	5.5	32.22° N, 115.32° W 5km	MX	VIII (97)	0	0
3	1978-08-13 22:54 UTC	5.8	34.39° N, 119.64° W 8km	US	VIII (40 k)	0	0
4	1979-03-15 21:07 UTC	5.5	34.2° N, 116.53° W 15km	US	VII (744)	0	0
5	1979-10-15 23:17 UTC	6.5	32.82° N, 115.64° W 9km	US	IX (3 k)	0	0
6	1979-10-16 05:49 UTC	5.6	33.02° N, 115.57° W 5km	US	VIII (611)	0	0
7	1979-10-16 06:19 UTC	5.1	32.73° N, 115.76° W 10km	US	VII (77)	0	0
8	1979-10-16 06:58 UTC	5.6	32.95° N, 115.62° W 10km	US	VIII (287)	0	0
9	1979-10-16 23:16 UTC	5.5	32.92° N, 115.55° W 4km	US	VIII (40)	0	0
10	1980-02-25 10:47 UTC	5.6	33.52° N, 116.55° W 6km	US	VII (847)	0	0
11	1980-06-09 03:28 UTC	6.3	32.27° N, 114.91° W 5km	MX	IX (336)	1	1
12	1981-04-26 12:09 UTC	5.9	33.12° N, 115.64° W 1km	US	VIII (11)	0	0
13	1981-09-04 15:50 UTC	5.8	33.9° N, 119.03° W 15km	US	VI (13 k)	0	0
14	1986-07-08 09:20 UTC	6	33.97° N, 116.78° W 12km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0	landslide
15	1986-07-13 13:47 UTC	5.8	33.05° N, 117.85° W 2km	US	V (9,528 k)	0	1	landslide
16	1987-10-01 14:42 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 118.13° W 14km	US	VIII (20 k)	8	8
17	1987-10-04 10:59 UTC	5.2	34.02° N, 118.14° W 11km	US	VII (453 k)	0	1
18	1987-11-24 01:54 UTC	6	33.22° N, 115.79° W 15km	US	VIII (250)	0	2
19	1987-11-24 13:15 UTC	6.5	33.07° N, 115.95° W 2km	US	IX (599)	0	0
20	1988-02-11 15:25 UTC	4.8	34.08° N, 118.05° W 12km	US	VII (11 k)	0	1
21	1988-12-03 11:38 UTC	5	34.15° N, 118.13° W 13km	US	VI (1,090 k)	0	0
22	1989-01-19 06:53 UTC	5.2	33.91° N, 118.7° W 9km	US	VI (14 k)	0	0
23	1990-02-28 23:43 UTC	5.7	34.14° N, 117.75° W 3km	US	VIII (12 k)	0	0
24	1991-06-28 14:43 UTC	5.6	34.24° N, 118.01° W 11km	US	VII (8 k)	1	1
25	1992-04-23 04:50 UTC	6.2	33.87° N, 116.52° W 4km	US	VIII (16 k)	0	0
26	1992-06-28 11:57 UTC	7.3	34.18° N, 116.53° W 11km	US	IX (2 k)	1	1
27	1992-06-28 15:05 UTC	6.5	34.29° N, 116.82° W 12km	US	IX (2 k)	0	0	landslide
28	1992-06-29 16:01 UTC	5.5	33.82° N, 116.44° W 15km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0
29	1992-07-11 18:14 UTC	5.7	34.96° N, 118.19° W 15km	US	VIII (568)	0	0
30	1992-11-27 16:00 UTC	5.6	34.23° N, 117.01° W 5km	US	VII (4 k)	0	0
31	1994-01-17 12:30 UTC	6.7	34.16° N, 118.58° W 11km	US	IX (181 k)	33	33	landslide, liquefaction
32	1994-01-17 23:33 UTC	5.8	34.27° N, 118.79° W 8km	US	VIII (70 k)	0	0
33	1994-01-18 00:43 UTC	5.5	34.26° N, 118.89° W 17km	US	VII (97 k)	0	0
34	1995-09-20 23:27 UTC	5.5	35.63° N, 117.73° W 15km	US	VIII (852)	0	0
35	1999-10-16 09:46 UTC	7.1	34.52° N, 116.44° W 5km	US	IX (17 k)	0	0
36	1999-10-16 09:59 UTC	5.8	34.56° N, 116.79° W 9km	US	VIII (19)	0	0
37	1999-10-16 12:57 UTC	5.7	34.27° N, 116.23° W 12km	US	VIII (201)	0	0
38	2001-12-08 23:36 UTC	5.7	32.05° N, 114.9° W 9km	MX	VIII (72)	0	0
39	2002-02-22 19:32 UTC	5.5	32.38° N, 115.19° W 9km	MX	VIII (8 k)	0	0
40	2005-06-16 20:53 UTC	4.9	33.95° N, 117.05° W 18km	US	VI (63 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
II	Borrego Springs	3k
II	Temecula	85k
II	Salton City	1k
II	Canyon Lake	12k
II	Seeley	2k
II	Wildomar	16k
II	Tijuana	1,376k
II	Murrieta	89k
II	San Jacinto	29k
II	Mexicali	597k
II	Calexico	36k
II	Sun City	20k
II	Calipatria	8k
II	Puebla	9k
II	Hemet	69k
II	Westmorland	2k
II	Bonita	13k
II	East Hemet	14k
II	Thousand Palms	6k
II	Imperial Beach	27k
II	Heber	3k
II	Tecate	58k
II	Brawley	22k
II	El Centro	38k
II	Mecca	7k
II	Rancho Mirage	17k
II	Bermuda Dunes	7k
II	Cathedral City	53k
II	El Cajon	95k
II	Imperial	10k
II	Holtville	5k
II	Julian	2k
II	Lakeland Village	6k
II	Palm Desert	49k
II	Poway	48k
II	Indian Wells	4k
II	Ramona	17k
II	Progreso	5k
II	Lakeside	19k
II	Winchester	2k
II	Coronado	24k
II	Niland	1k
II	Valle Vista	12k
II	Chula Vista	213k
II	Lake San Marcos	4k
II	National City	62k
II	Carlsbad	78k
II	Escondido	137k
II	Murrieta Hot Springs	4k
II	Oceanside	161k
II	Encinitas	58k
I	La Mesa	54k
I	Pine Valley	2k
I	Sedco Hills	3k
I	Rainbow	2k
I	Rancho Santa Fe	3k
I	Quail Valley	2k
I	La Presa	35k
I	Jamul	8k
I	Rancho San Diego	28k
I	Spring Valley	26k
I	Lemon Grove	25k
I	San Marcos	70k
I	Vista	93k
I	Bonsall	5k
I	Bostonia	16k
I	Crest	3k
I	Granite Hills	3k
I	Santee	53k
I	Winter Gardens	21k
I	Fallbrook	34k
I	Lake Elsinore	41k
I	Harbison Canyon	5k
I	Hidden Meadows	4k
I	Homeland	4k
I	San Diego Country Estates	11k
I	Primo Tapia	5k
I	Estacion Coahuila	8k
I	Alberto Oviedo Mota	8k
I	Guadalupe Victoria	18k
I	Delta	6k
I	Rosarito	66k
I	Alpine	15k
I	Coachella	31k
I	Del Mar	4k
I	Indio	66k
I	La Quinta	38k
I	Nuevo	5k
I	Palm Springs	43k
I	Perris	46k
I	Romoland	3k
I	San Diego	1,223k
I	Solana Beach	13k
I	Valley Center	10k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.