PAGER - M 4.1 - 16.1 km (10.0 mi) WNW of Ocotillo, CA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012 at 08:28:14 UTC (01:28:14 local)Location: 32.8° N, 116.1° WDepth: 10kmEvent Id: CI15223417Alert Version: 11Created: 1 day, 9 hours after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	99
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	1
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	99
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	1
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	0
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		84k*	5,959k*	3k	0	0	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1986-07-13	162	5.8	V (10m)	0
1991-06-28	235	5.6	VII (8k)	1
1994-01-17	271	6.7	IX (181k)	33

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
III	Heber	3k
III	Imperial	10k
III	Seeley	2k
III	El Centro	38k
III	Westmorland	2k
III	Holtville	5k
III	Mexicali	597k
II	Tijuana	1,376k
II	Chula Vista	213k
II	Oceanside	161k
II	San Diego	1,223k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-02-21 14:45 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 119.05° W 6km	US	VIII (4 k)	0	0
2	1978-05-05 21:03 UTC	5.5	32.22° N, 115.32° W 5km	MX	VIII (97)	0	0
3	1978-08-13 22:54 UTC	5.8	34.39° N, 119.64° W 8km	US	VIII (40 k)	0	0
4	1979-03-15 21:07 UTC	5.5	34.2° N, 116.53° W 15km	US	VII (744)	0	0
5	1979-10-15 23:17 UTC	6.5	32.82° N, 115.64° W 9km	US	IX (3 k)	0	0
6	1979-10-16 05:49 UTC	5.6	33.02° N, 115.57° W 5km	US	VIII (611)	0	0
7	1979-10-16 06:19 UTC	5.1	32.73° N, 115.76° W 10km	US	VII (77)	0	0
8	1979-10-16 06:58 UTC	5.6	32.95° N, 115.62° W 10km	US	VIII (287)	0	0
9	1979-10-16 23:16 UTC	5.5	32.92° N, 115.55° W 4km	US	VIII (40)	0	0
10	1980-02-25 10:47 UTC	5.6	33.52° N, 116.55° W 6km	US	VII (847)	0	0
11	1980-06-09 03:28 UTC	6.3	32.27° N, 114.91° W 5km	MX	IX (336)	1	1
12	1981-04-26 12:09 UTC	5.9	33.12° N, 115.64° W 1km	US	VIII (11)	0	0
13	1981-09-04 15:50 UTC	5.8	33.9° N, 119.03° W 15km	US	VI (13 k)	0	0
14	1986-07-08 09:20 UTC	6	33.97° N, 116.78° W 12km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0	landslide
15	1986-07-13 13:47 UTC	5.8	33.05° N, 117.85° W 2km	US	V (9,528 k)	0	1	landslide
16	1987-10-01 14:42 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 118.13° W 14km	US	VIII (20 k)	8	8
17	1987-10-04 10:59 UTC	5.2	34.02° N, 118.14° W 11km	US	VII (453 k)	0	1
18	1987-11-24 01:54 UTC	6	33.22° N, 115.79° W 15km	US	VIII (250)	0	2
19	1987-11-24 13:15 UTC	6.5	33.07° N, 115.95° W 2km	US	IX (599)	0	0
20	1988-02-11 15:25 UTC	4.8	34.08° N, 118.05° W 12km	US	VII (11 k)	0	1
21	1988-12-03 11:38 UTC	5	34.15° N, 118.13° W 13km	US	VI (1,090 k)	0	0
22	1989-01-19 06:53 UTC	5.2	33.91° N, 118.7° W 9km	US	VI (14 k)	0	0
23	1990-02-28 23:43 UTC	5.7	34.14° N, 117.75° W 3km	US	VIII (12 k)	0	0
24	1991-06-28 14:43 UTC	5.6	34.24° N, 118.01° W 11km	US	VII (8 k)	1	1
25	1992-04-23 04:50 UTC	6.2	33.87° N, 116.52° W 4km	US	VIII (16 k)	0	0
26	1992-06-28 11:57 UTC	7.3	34.18° N, 116.53° W 11km	US	IX (2 k)	1	1
27	1992-06-28 15:05 UTC	6.5	34.29° N, 116.82° W 12km	US	IX (2 k)	0	0	landslide
28	1992-06-29 16:01 UTC	5.5	33.82° N, 116.44° W 15km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0
29	1992-07-11 18:14 UTC	5.7	34.96° N, 118.19° W 15km	US	VIII (568)	0	0
30	1992-11-27 16:00 UTC	5.6	34.23° N, 117.01° W 5km	US	VII (4 k)	0	0
31	1994-01-17 12:30 UTC	6.7	34.16° N, 118.58° W 11km	US	IX (181 k)	33	33	landslide, liquefaction
32	1994-01-17 23:33 UTC	5.8	34.27° N, 118.79° W 8km	US	VIII (70 k)	0	0
33	1994-01-18 00:43 UTC	5.5	34.26° N, 118.89° W 17km	US	VII (97 k)	0	0
34	1995-09-20 23:27 UTC	5.5	35.63° N, 117.73° W 15km	US	VIII (852)	0	0
35	1999-10-16 09:46 UTC	7.1	34.52° N, 116.44° W 5km	US	IX (17 k)	0	0
36	1999-10-16 09:59 UTC	5.8	34.56° N, 116.79° W 9km	US	VIII (19)	0	0
37	1999-10-16 12:57 UTC	5.7	34.27° N, 116.23° W 12km	US	VIII (201)	0	0
38	2001-12-08 23:36 UTC	5.7	32.05° N, 114.9° W 9km	MX	VIII (72)	0	0
39	2002-02-22 19:32 UTC	5.5	32.38° N, 115.19° W 9km	MX	VIII (8 k)	0	0
40	2005-06-16 20:53 UTC	4.9	33.95° N, 117.05° W 18km	US	VI (63 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
III	Heber	3k
III	Imperial	10k
III	Seeley	2k
III	El Centro	38k
III	Westmorland	2k
III	Holtville	5k
III	Brawley	22k
III	Calipatria	8k
III	Salton City	1k
III	Calexico	36k
III	Mexicali	597k
III	Progreso	5k
III	Pine Valley	2k
III	Julian	2k
III	Puebla	9k
III	Tecate	58k
III	Niland	1k
II	Tijuana	1,376k
II	Poway	48k
II	Ramona	17k
II	Borrego Springs	3k
II	San Diego Country Estates	11k
II	Alpine	15k
II	Granite Hills	3k
II	Delta	6k
II	Imperial Beach	27k
II	Mecca	7k
II	Bonita	13k
II	Harbison Canyon	5k
II	Bostonia	16k
II	El Cajon	95k
II	La Presa	35k
II	Rancho Santa Fe	3k
II	Santee	53k
II	Alberto Oviedo Mota	8k
II	Guadalupe Victoria	18k
II	Tecolots	5k
II	Murrieta	89k
II	Murrieta Hot Springs	4k
II	Chula Vista	213k
II	Hermosillo	6k
II	Jamul	8k
II	Crest	3k
II	National City	62k
II	Primo Tapia	5k
II	Estacion Coahuila	8k
II	Lemon Grove	25k
II	Carlsbad	78k
II	Lakeside	19k
II	Coronado	24k
II	Rosarito	66k
II	Winter Gardens	21k
II	Rancho San Diego	28k
II	Escondido	137k
II	Wildomar	16k
II	Oceanside	161k
II	La Mesa	54k
II	Rainbow	2k
II	Del Mar	4k
II	Temecula	85k
II	San Diego	1,223k
II	Valley Center	10k
II	Solana Beach	13k
II	Spring Valley	26k
II	San Marcos	70k
II	Bonsall	5k
II	Encinitas	58k
II	Hidden Meadows	4k
I	Vista	93k
I	Fallbrook	34k
I	Lake San Marcos	4k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.