PAGER - M 4.1 - 16.1 km (10.0 mi) WNW of Ocotillo, CA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDFWhat's this?Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012 at 08:28:14 UTC (01:28:14 local)Location: 32.8° N, 116.1° WDepth: 10kmEvent Id: CI15223417Alert Version: 11Created: 1 day, 9 hours after earthquake.
Global Location

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.
Estimated FatalitiesFatality Alert Level: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)
 
99
1 to 9 (YELLOW)1
10 to 99 (YELLOW)0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)0
100 thousand + (RED)0
Estimated Economic LossesEconomic Alert Level: GREEN
ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)
 
99
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)1
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)0
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)0
1 to 10 billion (RED)0
10 to 100 billion (RED)0
100 billion + (RED)0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli IntensityIII-IIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXX
Est. Population Exposure84k*5,959k*3k000000
Perceived ShakingNot FeltWeakLightModerateStrongVery StrongSevereViolentExtreme
Potential Structure DamageResistantnonenonenoneV. LightLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. Heavy
VulnerablenonenonenoneLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. HeavyV. Heavy
*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area
Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Population Exposure Map

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)Dist (km)MagMax MMI (#)Shaking Deaths
1986-07-131625.8V (10m)0
1991-06-282355.6VII (8k)1
1994-01-172716.7IX (181k)33

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.
MMICityPopulation
IIIHeber3k
IIIImperial10k
IIISeeley2k
IIIEl Centro38k
IIIWestmorland2k
IIIHoltville5k
IIIMexicali597k
IITijuana1,376k
IIChula Vista213k
IIOceanside161k
IISan Diego1,223k

(k = x1,000)

Historical Events Map
Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#Date/TimeMagLat, Lon, DepthCountryMax MMI (Exposed)DeathsSecondary Effects
ShakingTotal
11973-02-21
14:45 UTC
5.934.06° N, 119.05° W
6km
USVIII (4 k)00
21978-05-05
21:03 UTC
5.532.22° N, 115.32° W
5km
MXVIII (97)00
31978-08-13
22:54 UTC
5.834.39° N, 119.64° W
8km
USVIII (40 k)00
41979-03-15
21:07 UTC
5.534.2° N, 116.53° W
15km
USVII (744)00
51979-10-15
23:17 UTC
6.532.82° N, 115.64° W
9km
USIX (3 k)00
61979-10-16
05:49 UTC
5.633.02° N, 115.57° W
5km
USVIII (611)00
71979-10-16
06:19 UTC
5.132.73° N, 115.76° W
10km
USVII (77)00
81979-10-16
06:58 UTC
5.632.95° N, 115.62° W
10km
USVIII (287)00
91979-10-16
23:16 UTC
5.532.92° N, 115.55° W
4km
USVIII (40)00
101980-02-25
10:47 UTC
5.633.52° N, 116.55° W
6km
USVII (847)00
111980-06-09
03:28 UTC
6.332.27° N, 114.91° W
5km
MXIX (336)11
121981-04-26
12:09 UTC
5.933.12° N, 115.64° W
1km
USVIII (11)00
131981-09-04
15:50 UTC
5.833.9° N, 119.03° W
15km
USVI (13 k)00
141986-07-08
09:20 UTC
633.97° N, 116.78° W
12km
USVIII (8 k)00landslide
151986-07-13
13:47 UTC
5.833.05° N, 117.85° W
2km
USV (9,528 k)01landslide
161987-10-01
14:42 UTC
5.934.06° N, 118.13° W
14km
USVIII (20 k)88
171987-10-04
10:59 UTC
5.234.02° N, 118.14° W
11km
USVII (453 k)01
181987-11-24
01:54 UTC
633.22° N, 115.79° W
15km
USVIII (250)02
191987-11-24
13:15 UTC
6.533.07° N, 115.95° W
2km
USIX (599)00
201988-02-11
15:25 UTC
4.834.08° N, 118.05° W
12km
USVII (11 k)01
211988-12-03
11:38 UTC
534.15° N, 118.13° W
13km
USVI (1,090 k)00
221989-01-19
06:53 UTC
5.233.91° N, 118.7° W
9km
USVI (14 k)00
231990-02-28
23:43 UTC
5.734.14° N, 117.75° W
3km
USVIII (12 k)00
241991-06-28
14:43 UTC
5.634.24° N, 118.01° W
11km
USVII (8 k)11
251992-04-23
04:50 UTC
6.233.87° N, 116.52° W
4km
USVIII (16 k)00
261992-06-28
11:57 UTC
7.334.18° N, 116.53° W
11km
USIX (2 k)11
271992-06-28
15:05 UTC
6.534.29° N, 116.82° W
12km
USIX (2 k)00landslide
281992-06-29
16:01 UTC
5.533.82° N, 116.44° W
15km
USVIII (8 k)00
291992-07-11
18:14 UTC
5.734.96° N, 118.19° W
15km
USVIII (568)00
301992-11-27
16:00 UTC
5.634.23° N, 117.01° W
5km
USVII (4 k)00
311994-01-17
12:30 UTC
6.734.16° N, 118.58° W
11km
USIX (181 k)3333landslide, liquefaction
321994-01-17
23:33 UTC
5.834.27° N, 118.79° W
8km
USVIII (70 k)00
331994-01-18
00:43 UTC
5.534.26° N, 118.89° W
17km
USVII (97 k)00
341995-09-20
23:27 UTC
5.535.63° N, 117.73° W
15km
USVIII (852)00
351999-10-16
09:46 UTC
7.134.52° N, 116.44° W
5km
USIX (17 k)00
361999-10-16
09:59 UTC
5.834.56° N, 116.79° W
9km
USVIII (19)00
371999-10-16
12:57 UTC
5.734.27° N, 116.23° W
12km
USVIII (201)00
382001-12-08
23:36 UTC
5.732.05° N, 114.9° W
9km
MXVIII (72)00
392002-02-22
19:32 UTC
5.532.38° N, 115.19° W
9km
MXVIII (8 k)00
402005-06-16
20:53 UTC
4.933.95° N, 117.05° W
18km
USVI (63 k)00
MMICityPopulation
IIIHeber3k
IIIImperial10k
IIISeeley2k
IIIEl Centro38k
IIIWestmorland2k
IIIHoltville5k
IIIBrawley22k
IIICalipatria8k
IIISalton City1k
IIICalexico36k
IIIMexicali597k
IIIProgreso5k
IIIPine Valley2k
IIIJulian2k
IIIPuebla9k
IIITecate58k
IIINiland1k
IITijuana1,376k
IIPoway48k
IIRamona17k
IIBorrego Springs3k
IISan Diego Country Estates11k
IIAlpine15k
IIGranite Hills3k
IIDelta6k
IIImperial Beach27k
IIMecca7k
IIBonita13k
IIHarbison Canyon5k
IIBostonia16k
IIEl Cajon95k
IILa Presa35k
IIRancho Santa Fe3k
IISantee53k
IIAlberto Oviedo Mota8k
IIGuadalupe Victoria18k
IITecolots5k
IIMurrieta89k
IIMurrieta Hot Springs4k
IIChula Vista213k
IIHermosillo6k
IIJamul8k
IICrest3k
IINational City62k
IIPrimo Tapia5k
IIEstacion Coahuila8k
IILemon Grove25k
IICarlsbad78k
IILakeside19k
IICoronado24k
IIRosarito66k
IIWinter Gardens21k
IIRancho San Diego28k
IIEscondido137k
IIWildomar16k
IIOceanside161k
IILa Mesa54k
IIRainbow2k
IIDel Mar4k
IITemecula85k
IISan Diego1,223k
IIValley Center10k
IISolana Beach13k
IISpring Valley26k
IISan Marcos70k
IIBonsall5k
IIEncinitas58k
IIHidden Meadows4k
IVista93k
IFallbrook34k
ILake San Marcos4k

(k = x1,000)


PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.