PAGER - M 7.2 - 30.8 mi SSE of Calexico, CA

Alert Level: RED

Download Alert PDF What's this?Sunday, April 4th, 2010 at 22:40:42 UTC (15:40:42 local)Location: 32.3° N, 115.3° WDepth: 10kmEvent Id: CI14607652Alert Version: 1Created: 24 weeks, 4 days after earthquake.

Alert Information

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: RED
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	0
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	1
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	10
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	30
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	37
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	19
100 thousand + (RED)	4

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: RED
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	0
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	0
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	3
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	14
1 to 10 billion (RED)	32
10 to 100 billion (RED)	32
100 billion + (RED)	15

Red alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread. Past red alerts have required a national or international response. Estimated economic losses are 0-2% GDP of Mexico.

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	---*	220k*	2,824k*	341k*	144k	753k	48k	38
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block with concrete bond beam and mud wall construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1975-07-08	367	6.5	IX (20)	0
1980-06-09	35	6.3	IX (336)	1
2002-02-22	16	5.5	VIII (8k)	0

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
VIII	Alberto Oviedo Mota	8k
VIII	Delta	6k
VIII	Progreso	5k
VII	Mexicali	597k
VII	El Centro	38k
VII	Calexico	36k
VI	San Luis Rio Colorado	139k
IV	Tijuana	1,376k
IV	Ensenada	257k
IV	Chula Vista	213k
IV	Escondido	137k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1975-07-08 09:37 UTC	6.5	29.36° N, 113.45° W 2km	MX	IX (20)	0	0
2	1978-05-05 21:03 UTC	5.5	32.22° N, 115.32° W 5km	MX	VIII (97)	0	0
3	1979-03-15 21:07 UTC	5.5	34.2° N, 116.53° W 15km	US	VII (744)	0	0
4	1979-10-15 23:17 UTC	6.5	32.82° N, 115.64° W 9km	US	IX (3 k)	0	0
5	1979-10-16 05:49 UTC	5.6	33.02° N, 115.57° W 5km	US	VIII (611)	0	0
6	1979-10-16 06:19 UTC	5.1	32.73° N, 115.76° W 10km	US	VII (77)	0	0
7	1979-10-16 06:58 UTC	5.6	32.95° N, 115.62° W 10km	US	VIII (287)	0	0
8	1979-10-16 23:16 UTC	5.5	32.92° N, 115.55° W 4km	US	VIII (40)	0	0
9	1980-02-25 10:47 UTC	5.6	33.52° N, 116.55° W 6km	US	VII (847)	0	0
10	1980-06-09 03:28 UTC	6.3	32.27° N, 114.91° W 5km	MX	IX (336)	1	1
11	1981-04-26 12:09 UTC	5.9	33.12° N, 115.64° W 1km	US	VIII (11)	0	0
12	1981-09-04 15:50 UTC	5.8	33.9° N, 119.03° W 15km	US	VI (13 k)	0	0
13	1986-07-08 09:20 UTC	6	33.97° N, 116.78° W 12km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0	landslide
14	1986-07-13 13:47 UTC	5.8	33.05° N, 117.85° W 2km	US	V (9,528 k)	0	1	landslide
15	1987-10-01 14:42 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 118.13° W 14km	US	VIII (20 k)	8	8
16	1987-10-04 10:59 UTC	5.2	34.02° N, 118.14° W 11km	US	VII (453 k)	0	1
17	1987-11-24 01:54 UTC	6	33.22° N, 115.79° W 15km	US	VIII (250)	0	2
18	1987-11-24 13:15 UTC	6.5	33.07° N, 115.95° W 2km	US	IX (599)	0	0
19	1988-02-11 15:25 UTC	4.8	34.08° N, 118.05° W 12km	US	VII (11 k)	0	1
20	1988-12-03 11:38 UTC	5	34.15° N, 118.13° W 13km	US	VI (1,090 k)	0	0
21	1989-01-19 06:53 UTC	5.2	33.91° N, 118.7° W 9km	US	VI (14 k)	0	0
22	1990-02-28 23:43 UTC	5.7	34.14° N, 117.75° W 3km	US	VIII (12 k)	0	0
23	1991-06-28 14:43 UTC	5.6	34.24° N, 118.01° W 11km	US	VII (8 k)	1	1
24	1992-04-23 04:50 UTC	6.2	33.87° N, 116.52° W 4km	US	VIII (16 k)	0	0
25	1992-06-28 11:57 UTC	7.3	34.18° N, 116.53° W 11km	US	IX (2 k)	1	1
26	1992-06-28 15:05 UTC	6.5	34.29° N, 116.82° W 12km	US	IX (2 k)	0	0	landslide
27	1992-06-29 16:01 UTC	5.5	33.82° N, 116.44° W 15km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0
28	1992-11-27 16:00 UTC	5.6	34.23° N, 117.01° W 5km	US	VII (4 k)	0	0
29	1994-01-17 12:30 UTC	6.7	34.16° N, 118.58° W 11km	US	IX (181 k)	33	33	landslide, liquefaction
30	1994-01-17 23:33 UTC	5.8	34.27° N, 118.79° W 8km	US	VIII (70 k)	0	0
31	1999-10-16 09:46 UTC	7.1	34.52° N, 116.44° W 5km	US	IX (17 k)	0	0
32	1999-10-16 09:59 UTC	5.8	34.56° N, 116.79° W 9km	US	VIII (19)	0	0
33	1999-10-16 12:57 UTC	5.7	34.27° N, 116.23° W 12km	US	VIII (201)	0	0
34	2001-12-08 23:36 UTC	5.7	32.05° N, 114.9° W 9km	MX	VIII (72)	0	0
35	2002-02-22 19:32 UTC	5.5	32.38° N, 115.19° W 9km	MX	VIII (8 k)	0	0
36	2005-06-16 20:53 UTC	4.9	33.95° N, 117.05° W 18km	US	VI (63 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
VIII	Alberto Oviedo Mota	8k
VIII	Progreso	5k
VIII	Delta	6k
VII	Guadalupe Victoria	18k
VII	Heber	3k
VII	Calexico	36k
VII	Mexicali	597k
VII	Estacion Coahuila	8k
VII	El Centro	38k
VII	Puebla	9k
VII	Seeley	2k
VII	Imperial	10k
VI	Holtville	5k
VI	Tecolots	5k
VI	Hermosillo	6k
VI	Brawley	22k
VI	Westmorland	2k
VI	San Luis Rio Colorado	139k
VI	San Luis	22k
VI	Gadsden	1k
V	Somerton	9k
V	Calipatria	8k
V	Los Algodones	5k
V	Niland	1k
V	Salton City	1k
V	Wellton	2k
V	Yuma	84k
V	Maneadero	18k
V	Pine Valley	2k
IV	Tijuana	1,376k
IV	Tecate	58k
IV	Fortuna Foothills	31k
IV	Ramona	17k
IV	Chula Vista	213k
IV	Bonita	13k
IV	Lakeside	19k
IV	San Diego Country Estates	11k
IV	Ensenada	257k
IV	El Sauzal	9k
IV	Primo Tapia	5k
IV	National City	62k
IV	Escondido	137k
IV	Rosarito	66k
IV	Bostonia	16k
IV	Poway	48k
IV	La Presa	35k
IV	Alpine	15k
IV	Jamul	8k
IV	Borrego Springs	3k
IV	El Cajon	95k
IV	Harbison Canyon	5k
IV	Valley Center	10k
IV	Crest	3k
IV	La Mesa	54k
IV	Granite Hills	3k
IV	Santee	53k
IV	Winter Gardens	21k
IV	Lemon Grove	25k
IV	Julian	2k
IV	Rancho San Diego	28k
IV	Spring Valley	26k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER results are generally available on the Internet within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.