PAGER - M 4.4 - 44.7 mi SW of San Ysidro, CA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Monday, February 1st, 2010 at 14:19:47 UTC (06:19:47 local)Location: 32° N, 117.5° WDepth: 6kmEvent Id: CI10537093Alert Version: 1Created: 47 weeks, 0 days after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	99
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	1
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	99
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	1
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	0
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		231k*	4,198k*	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1980-06-09	247	6.3	IX (24k)	1
2001-12-08	247	5.7	VIII (72)	0
2002-02-22	223	5.5	VIII (11k)	0

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
III	Rosarito	66k
III	Imperial Beach	27k
III	Chula Vista	213k
III	National City	62k
III	Primo Tapia	5k
III	Tijuana	1,376k
II	San Diego	1,223k
II	El Cajon	95k
II	Ensenada	257k
I	Carlsbad	78k
I	Escondido	137k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1973-02-21 14:45 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 119.05° W 6km	US	VIII (4 k)	0	0
2	1978-05-05 21:03 UTC	5.5	32.22° N, 115.32° W 5km	MX	VIII (98)	0	0
3	1978-08-13 22:54 UTC	5.8	34.37° N, 119.65° W 8km	US	VIII (41 k)	0	0
4	1979-03-15 21:07 UTC	5.5	34.2° N, 116.53° W 15km	US	VII (750)	0	0
5	1979-10-15 23:17 UTC	6.5	32.81° N, 115.65° W 12km	US	IX (3 k)	0	0
6	1979-10-16 05:49 UTC	5.6	33.02° N, 115.57° W 5km	US	VIII (614)	0	0
7	1979-10-16 06:19 UTC	5.1	32.73° N, 115.76° W 10km	US	VII (81)	0	0
8	1979-10-16 06:58 UTC	5.6	32.95° N, 115.62° W 10km	US	VIII (268)	0	0
9	1979-10-16 23:16 UTC	5.5	32.92° N, 115.55° W 4km	US	VIII (43)	0	0
10	1980-02-25 10:47 UTC	5.6	33.52° N, 116.55° W 6km	US	VII (980)	0	0
11	1980-06-09 03:28 UTC	6.3	32.27° N, 114.91° W 5km	MX	IX (24 k)	1	1
12	1981-04-26 12:09 UTC	5.9	33.13° N, 115.64° W 10km	US	VIII (11)	0	0
13	1981-09-04 15:50 UTC	5.8	33.89° N, 119.03° W 15km	US	VI (13 k)	0	0
14	1986-07-08 09:20 UTC	6	33.97° N, 116.78° W 12km	US	VIII (8 k)	0	0	landslide
15	1986-07-13 13:47 UTC	5.8	33.07° N, 117.84° W 15km	US	V (9,681 k)	0	1	landslide
16	1987-10-01 14:42 UTC	5.9	34.06° N, 118.14° W 14km	US	VIII (20 k)	8	8
17	1987-10-04 10:59 UTC	5.2	34.02° N, 118.14° W 11km	US	VII (458 k)	0	1
18	1987-11-24 01:54 UTC	6	33.26° N, 115.76° W 15km	US	VIII (273)	0	2
19	1987-11-24 13:15 UTC	6.5	33.07° N, 115.95° W 2km	US	IX (598)	0	0
20	1988-02-11 15:25 UTC	4.8	34.08° N, 118.05° W 12km	US	VII (12 k)	0	1
21	1988-12-03 11:38 UTC	5	34.15° N, 118.13° W 13km	US	VI (1,097 k)	0	0
22	1989-01-19 06:53 UTC	5.2	33.91° N, 118.7° W 9km	US	VI (14 k)	0	0
23	1990-02-28 23:43 UTC	5.7	34.14° N, 117.75° W 3km	US	VIII (12 k)	0	0
24	1991-06-28 14:43 UTC	5.6	34.24° N, 118.01° W 11km	US	VII (8 k)	1	1
25	1992-04-23 04:50 UTC	6.2	33.87° N, 116.55° W 12km	US	VIII (19 k)	0	0
26	1992-06-28 11:57 UTC	7.3	34.19° N, 116.52° W 15km	US	IX (399)	1	1
27	1992-06-28 15:05 UTC	6.5	34.29° N, 116.82° W 12km	US	IX (2 k)	0	0	landslide
28	1992-06-29 16:01 UTC	5.5	33.82° N, 116.44° W 15km	US	VIII (9 k)	0	0
29	1992-07-11 18:14 UTC	5.7	34.96° N, 118.19° W 15km	US	VIII (445)	0	0
30	1992-11-27 16:00 UTC	5.6	34.23° N, 117.01° W 5km	US	VII (4 k)	0	0
31	1994-01-17 12:30 UTC	6.7	34.16° N, 118.56° W 19km	US	IX (211 k)	60	60	landslide, liquefaction
32	1994-01-17 23:33 UTC	5.8	34.28° N, 118.79° W 10km	US	VIII (70 k)	0	0
33	1994-01-18 00:43 UTC	5.5	34.26° N, 118.89° W 17km	US	VII (98 k)	0	0
34	1995-09-20 23:27 UTC	5.5	35.63° N, 117.73° W 15km	US	VIII (846)	0	0
35	1999-10-16 09:46 UTC	7.1	34.52° N, 116.45° W 15km	US	IX (17 k)	0	0
36	1999-10-16 09:59 UTC	5.8	34.56° N, 116.79° W 9km	US	VIII (16)	0	0
37	1999-10-16 12:57 UTC	5.7	34.27° N, 116.23° W 12km	US	VIII (203)	0	0
38	2001-12-08 23:36 UTC	5.7	32.05° N, 114.9° W 9km	MX	VIII (72)	0	0
39	2002-02-22 19:32 UTC	5.5	32.38° N, 115.19° W 9km	MX	VIII (11 k)	0	0
40	2005-06-16 20:53 UTC	4.9	33.95° N, 117.05° W 18km	US	VI (65 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
III	Rosarito	66k
III	Imperial Beach	27k
III	Chula Vista	213k
III	National City	62k
III	Primo Tapia	5k
III	Tijuana	1,376k
III	Bonita	13k
III	Coronado	24k
III	La Presa	35k
II	San Diego	1,223k
II	La Mesa	54k
II	El Cajon	95k
II	Bostonia	16k
II	Lemon Grove	25k
II	Santee	53k
II	Granite Hills	3k
II	Spring Valley	26k
II	Rancho San Diego	28k
II	El Sauzal	9k
II	Maneadero	18k
II	Del Mar	4k
II	Jamul	8k
II	Winter Gardens	21k
II	Ensenada	257k
II	Lakeside	19k
II	Crest	3k
II	Julian	2k
II	Poway	48k
II	Harbison Canyon	5k
II	Tecate	58k
II	Rancho Santa Fe	3k
II	Solana Beach	13k
II	Alpine	15k
II	Ramona	17k
II	Encinitas	58k
I	Lake San Marcos	4k
I	Carlsbad	78k
I	Escondido	137k
I	San Diego Country Estates	11k
I	San Marcos	70k
I	Pine Valley	2k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.