M 7.2 - 106 km S of Sand Point, Alaska
- 2023-07-16 06:48:21 (UTC)
- 54.393°N 160.762°W
- 25.0 km depth
Aftershock Forecast
- The data below are the most preferred data available
- The data below have NOT been reviewed by a scientist.
- Damaging earthquakes can occur in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
- More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock. The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence (a series of earthquakes related to each other).
- When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
- No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our aftershock forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area.
| Magnitude (M) of aftershock | within 1 Day | within 1 Week | within 1 Month | within 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M 7or higher | 1 in 100,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 20,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 4,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 500 chance of 1 or more |
| M 6or higher | 1 in 10,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 2,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 400 chance of 1 or more | 2% chance of 1 or more |
| M 5or higher | 1 in 1,000 chance of 1 or more | 1 in 200 chance of 1 or more | 2% chance of 1 or more | 19% chance of 1 or more |
| M 4or higher | 1 in 100 chance of 1 or more | 5% chance of 1 or more | 21% chance of 1 or more | 87% chance of 1 or more |
| M 3or higher | 8% chance of 1 or more | 42% chance of 1 or more | 89% chance of 1 or more | Expect about 21 |
The rate of aftershocks is expected to decline with time. However, the probabilities in the longer time windows are higher because the rates are being summed over a longer time period.