WEBVTT

8bac2731-f225-4625-a5f2-5a6518dfaeb1-0
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Hello everyone and hello for the
last time this is our very,

8bac2731-f225-4625-a5f2-5a6518dfaeb1-1
00:00:07.063 --> 00:00:10.807
very, last session of the "Too
Many Earthquake Anniversaries

8bac2731-f225-4625-a5f2-5a6518dfaeb1-2
00:00:10.807 --> 00:00:11.360
edition."

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Have we covered all the
earthquakes?

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No we have not.

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So for this last session we have

24cec380-11a5-4c25-b5b9-b7e976d74c81-0
00:00:17.160 --> 00:00:20.606
 asked everyone to submit their
very favorite earthquake and the

24cec380-11a5-4c25-b5b9-b7e976d74c81-1
00:00:20.606 --> 00:00:23.840
very favorite lesson that they
learned from each earthquake.

f80fbcb3-d2bc-400d-86a0-f7573b69b1f0-0
00:00:23.840 --> 00:00:27.397
And we're going to do a rapid
round- the-clock, round-robin of

f80fbcb3-d2bc-400d-86a0-f7573b69b1f0-1
00:00:27.397 --> 00:00:30.560
people telling us what they
learned from an earthquake.

ad9724ae-3a60-4a23-821d-b442d613f471-0
00:00:30.560 --> 00:00:34.023
And then we're gonna end with a
little valedictory speech by

ad9724ae-3a60-4a23-821d-b442d613f471-1
00:00:34.023 --> 00:00:37.656
John Stewart telling us why we
need to investigate earthquakes,

ad9724ae-3a60-4a23-821d-b442d613f471-2
00:00:37.656 --> 00:00:39.360
if we don't know that already.

d38ce476-8be6-4966-81ce-69034551f418-0
00:00:39.680 --> 00:00:42.000
But I think he knows all the
good secrets.

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So here we go with our last set
of moderators, the wonderful

7c6ba390-ed2a-47e4-8500-f41a57e385a0-1
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Lori Johnson and Mike Oskin.
[Woohoo]

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Good afternoon, everybody.

c87a6c3c-2d99-42b8-9edc-40c2d3ad4c28-0
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Im going to lead us off here
welcoming you all to this

c87a6c3c-2d99-42b8-9edc-40c2d3ad4c28-1
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session.

a3cd38f4-37eb-42c9-ab0f-b00302c8b79b-0
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Sarah just described it.

78f9010c-92cf-4c90-8abd-e7a8fb99013b-0
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We have a potpourri of different
earthquakes from the last 100

78f9010c-92cf-4c90-8abd-e7a8fb99013b-1
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years and speakers. I will turn
it over to my Co-moderator to

78f9010c-92cf-4c90-8abd-e7a8fb99013b-2
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introduce the first speaker.

fc24d45b-a676-4412-a37c-01cc339480a1-0
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Thanks Mike.

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Good afternoon everyone.

c761d5e7-6ac8-4f38-b7f6-bf70f41b0b0e-0
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My name is Bob McPherson, and
today I'd like to show you that

c761d5e7-6ac8-4f38-b7f6-bf70f41b0b0e-1
00:01:21.591 --> 00:01:25.738
when we have large earthquakes
near the Mendocino Triple

c761d5e7-6ac8-4f38-b7f6-bf70f41b0b0e-2
00:01:25.738 --> 00:01:29.958
Junction they have a tendency to
excite aftershocks along

c761d5e7-6ac8-4f38-b7f6-bf70f41b0b0e-3
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features other than the initial
slip plane.

f0c6c3a6-516f-4744-b3a0-8279f2fdeee7-0
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And to show this, I'll present
data from the 1992 magnitude 7.2

f0c6c3a6-516f-4744-b3a0-8279f2fdeee7-1
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minutes Cape Mendocino
earthquake.

27d343cc-8056-42b0-93c2-530b51e02f7e-0
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Before I get to the story, I'd
like to thank all of these

27d343cc-8056-42b0-93c2-530b51e02f7e-1
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people here organizers listed
alphabetically and also thank

27d343cc-8056-42b0-93c2-530b51e02f7e-2
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John Grindle for operating the
buttons and controls for this

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meeting and of course the
moderators for this session.

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So thank you all for your
efforts to putting on this

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00:02:06.636 --> 00:02:07.240
workshop.

691dc5f0-753b-499e-b053-90b4f62fdeb2-0
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This is a screen capture showing
an uplifted wavecut marine

691dc5f0-753b-499e-b053-90b4f62fdeb2-1
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platform that was uplifted out
of the surf zone after this

691dc5f0-753b-499e-b053-90b4f62fdeb2-2
00:02:19.042 --> 00:02:19.960
earthquake.

3e7af02e-0391-4560-b22f-30325a2bb79b-0
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So the outline of my talk is
shown over here.

2d710a14-ab12-4426-b251-c4537911c2cd-0
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I'm going to introduce the
setting and show map views and

2d710a14-ab12-4426-b251-c4537911c2cd-1
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cross sections to support the
argument that features are

2d710a14-ab12-4426-b251-c4537911c2cd-2
00:02:38.294 --> 00:02:44.002
reactivated after a large
earthquakes and can make for

2d710a14-ab12-4426-b251-c4537911c2cd-3
00:02:44.002 --> 00:02:45.040
confusion.

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And then apply the lesson to the
Honeydew earthquake, which I

3b2699da-ce40-4c39-b68c-9017a26c721b-1
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think has been misinterpreted.

86505acc-aa13-45c7-bd42-cb72580f0e96-0
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So geographic setting here's
False Cape, here's Cape

86505acc-aa13-45c7-bd42-cb72580f0e96-1
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Mendocino, the concavity of the
Mattole River going around Punta

86505acc-aa13-45c7-bd42-cb72580f0e96-2
00:03:02.064 --> 00:03:06.735
Gorda down towards Shelter Cove
where the San Andreas comes

86505acc-aa13-45c7-bd42-cb72580f0e96-3
00:03:06.735 --> 00:03:07.280
ashore.

1e678e8d-d453-4f41-b4bc-754f747d4f02-0
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And one thing that you need to
know is here comes the Mendocino

1e678e8d-d453-4f41-b4bc-754f747d4f02-1
00:03:12.484 --> 00:03:17.161
fault, the boundary between the
Pacific and the Gorda plate, and

1e678e8d-d453-4f41-b4bc-754f747d4f02-2
00:03:17.161 --> 00:03:18.960
it ends about right here.

fffa6bf1-26ac-4f05-9be2-ed788793be34-0
00:03:19.520 --> 00:03:24.028
And then picking up the San
Andreas in 19O6 rupture and

fffa6bf1-26ac-4f05-9be2-ed788793be34-1
00:03:24.028 --> 00:03:26.360
projecting it upwards to here.

a95279af-2edd-42ad-9ccd-77e18708b6ce-0
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I have now drawn the corner of
the Pacific plate, so the

a95279af-2edd-42ad-9ccd-77e18708b6ce-1
00:03:30.809 --> 00:03:34.360
Mendocino fault doesn't extend
beyond the corner 

a4b5c8db-b15c-4a62-8798-82e617e96938-0
00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:37.160
here is important information.

20413a95-38f2-4253-9a7b-858d68413165-0
00:03:37.600 --> 00:03:40.635
So here's the Honeydew
earthquake, which I'm going to

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00:03:40.635 --> 00:03:41.760
apply the lesson to 

ad641f59-fc16-4919-a881-a4c002092567-0
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and here's the '72 that
ruptured toward the coast.

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00:03:45.960 --> 00:03:50.469
Also important to note is this
is the area of the coast that

80967d37-ec82-4ac1-8382-f559d4a8a195-1
00:03:50.469 --> 00:03:51.800
went up and right.

bbfe15b7-b039-42a3-9e12-26df302fa47c-0
00:03:51.800 --> 00:03:55.840
here was a 1.7g acceleration at
McNutt Gulch.

d0f1cbb2-dc2b-458a-916f-a4aeef4ce371-0
00:03:59.040 --> 00:04:02.922
Alright, so I just drew the
corner of the Pacific Plate and

d0f1cbb2-dc2b-458a-916f-a4aeef4ce371-1
00:04:02.922 --> 00:04:05.240
now I've removed it in this
cartoon.

7558b32f-9625-4dfa-b47b-9204424569e2-0
00:04:05.960 --> 00:04:09.640
that's discussed in the FOP guidebook.

a4cf329e-4740-474c-ade8-c397078b4f75-0
00:04:11.120 --> 00:04:12.920
Anyway, a depth here.

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The '92 about 12 km
ruptured towards the coast and

f03dade3-33a8-4346-885f-8eadc5e7a74b-1
00:04:17.875 --> 00:04:22.830
upward along this slip plane,
again lifting the coast and

f03dade3-33a8-4346-885f-8eadc5e7a74b-2
00:04:22.830 --> 00:04:26.759
causing strong accelerations
along the coast.

40590971-35dc-4724-9a5e-58f7500ab592-0
00:04:28.240 --> 00:04:33.065
Here's the response in the Gorda 
Plate in the cartoon shown by

40590971-35dc-4724-9a5e-58f7500ab592-1
00:04:33.065 --> 00:04:37.000
a right-lateral vertical fault
in the Gorda plate.

2dec3d55-c353-4b22-98ef-3ff69e1aaa73-0
00:04:37.800 --> 00:04:42.684
One other thing to note is as
the Gorda plate descends or the

2dec3d55-c353-4b22-98ef-3ff69e1aaa73-1
00:04:42.684 --> 00:04:47.331
southern Juan de Fuca descends,
this is the boundary between

2dec3d55-c353-4b22-98ef-3ff69e1aaa73-2
00:04:47.331 --> 00:04:51.979
Pacific and the Gorda plate, the
very southern edge of the

2dec3d55-c353-4b22-98ef-3ff69e1aaa73-3
00:04:51.979 --> 00:04:53.240
subduction zone.

ba67aa3d-4cee-4644-af9b-2d95c233904b-0
00:04:53.680 --> 00:04:57.509
It's at a depth of about 17
km beneath the slip

ba67aa3d-4cee-4644-af9b-2d95c233904b-1
00:04:57.509 --> 00:04:57.920
plain.

a40a63bd-eecc-4004-905a-19701961079a-0
00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:02.336
And so you have the Mendocino
fault here and then you have a

a40a63bd-eecc-4004-905a-19701961079a-1
00:05:02.336 --> 00:05:06.130
wedge in North America above it,
which is going to be important

a40a63bd-eecc-4004-905a-19701961079a-2
00:05:06.130 --> 00:05:06.960
consideration.

9a845e66-cf82-4a8c-b892-8e34bd8b3379-0
00:05:09.200 --> 00:05:13.974
So one other thing is these
marine terraces shown here in

9a845e66-cf82-4a8c-b892-8e34bd8b3379-1
00:05:13.974 --> 00:05:14.880
this image.

2d8450d7-7988-43c8-a0e4-0e7b1cee6cf8-0
00:05:16.480 --> 00:05:21.100
So the coast was uplifted from
here down to Punta Gorda in the

2d8450d7-7988-43c8-a0e4-0e7b1cee6cf8-1
00:05:21.100 --> 00:05:21.760
distance.

c6aa0598-1889-44b1-9c55-20cb365f0302-0
00:05:22.280 --> 00:05:27.970
And these terraces are evidence
that this type of block movement

c6aa0598-1889-44b1-9c55-20cb365f0302-1
00:05:27.970 --> 00:05:32.172
may have been occurring
throughout whole of the

c6aa0598-1889-44b1-9c55-20cb365f0302-2
00:05:32.172 --> 00:05:32.960
Holocene.

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00:05:33.880 --> 00:05:39.489
And one last point is here's the
Anthony Lomax's relocations of

75bbf2ba-d754-4e2f-add8-702669070262-1
00:05:39.489 --> 00:05:44.835
of earthquakes in the region and
you can see the Gorda Plate

75bbf2ba-d754-4e2f-add8-702669070262-2
00:05:44.835 --> 00:05:45.800
descending.

bc5e0854-749c-418d-91d4-b355c980e106-0
00:05:46.120 --> 00:05:52.600
Here's the '92 slip plane,

d9f26957-7ec2-4b2b-92d1-fad4a4dfe76e-0
00:05:52.600 --> 00:05:57.720
and what I want to show on this
is that these yellows and green

d9f26957-7ec2-4b2b-92d1-fad4a4dfe76e-1
00:05:57.720 --> 00:06:01.800
colors show that it has been
reactivated in recent

d9f26957-7ec2-4b2b-92d1-fad4a4dfe76e-2
00:06:01.800 --> 00:06:05.000
earthquakes near the Trumbull
Junction.

7a736b0a-925d-4d70-9785-32c5536180e2-0
00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:11.905
Alright, this data is
was done by

7a736b0a-925d-4d70-9785-32c5536180e2-1
00:06:11.905 --> 00:06:18.109
Mike Pasyanos and the green
represents 0 to 10 km

7a736b0a-925d-4d70-9785-32c5536180e2-2
00:06:18.109 --> 00:06:18.720
depth.

b1c9e867-3761-4b7f-95dc-2fe29a0c0792-0
00:06:18.720 --> 00:06:23.874
The red near the epicenter of
the '92 and then it ruptured to

b1c9e867-3761-4b7f-95dc-2fe29a0c0792-1
00:06:23.874 --> 00:06:24.720
the coast, 

8528c081-ce08-4049-b5f4-daf111478b37-0
00:06:25.160 --> 00:06:31.253
and so this area is the slip
patch corroborated by a campaign

8528c081-ce08-4049-b5f4-daf111478b37-1
00:06:31.253 --> 00:06:35.480
GPS done by Mike Lisowski and
Mark Murray.

50fd9000-0b95-4d50-8a3d-5f3af59c46fa-0
00:06:36.320 --> 00:06:42.146
And and then the response to
that slip was two aftershocks and

50fd9000-0b95-4d50-8a3d-5f3af59c46fa-1
00:06:42.146 --> 00:06:48.164
one of them shown in red that
are in blue that represent Gorda

50fd9000-0b95-4d50-8a3d-5f3af59c46fa-2
00:06:48.164 --> 00:06:53.800
plate vertical faults long right-
lateral along a NW trend.

99d31efb-179a-4197-a287-f008c47565c7-0
00:06:54.160 --> 00:06:59.166
And over here in this inset
of relocations, you can

99d31efb-179a-4197-a287-f008c47565c7-1
00:06:59.166 --> 00:07:04.086
see that these features have
grown over time and they're

99d31efb-179a-4197-a287-f008c47565c7-2
00:07:04.086 --> 00:07:08.661
cutting the fabric of the
Gordo Plate, which is

99d31efb-179a-4197-a287-f008c47565c7-3
00:07:08.661 --> 00:07:10.560
interesting in itself.

a2cb3940-799a-4066-ae3d-3349edf9e2a7-0
00:07:11.880 --> 00:07:14.560
Alright, to show you a cross
section.

02d7a5af-2728-4f10-a76a-de5f5a834ca6-0
00:07:14.560 --> 00:07:17.640
So again, here's the map view I
just showed you in the cartoon 

bdd44264-5b63-401c-b30d-5be525e9187f-0
00:07:17.640 --> 00:07:22.767
for reference, this vertical
line here, everything over here

bdd44264-5b63-401c-b30d-5be525e9187f-1
00:07:22.767 --> 00:07:24.280
is Pacific Plate 

2280101d-2530-4f9e-a0b8-cbc726cefe0c-0
00:07:24.720 --> 00:07:28.730
and this horizontal line, this
is North American plate above

2280101d-2530-4f9e-a0b8-cbc726cefe0c-1
00:07:28.730 --> 00:07:31.360
it, and this is Gorda plate
beneath it.

74a0a011-586e-4129-a5b2-396b4d4fa8b3-0
00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:39.515
So this vertical lineation here
represents the Mendocino fault

74a0a011-586e-4129-a5b2-396b4d4fa8b3-1
00:07:39.515 --> 00:07:40.600
at depth.

833b932f-1f6d-4903-b707-fd2be52f586a-0
00:07:40.640 --> 00:07:45.311
This blob represents activity in
the wedge here above the

833b932f-1f6d-4903-b707-fd2be52f586a-1
00:07:45.311 --> 00:07:46.600
Mendocino fault.

bf6bb1f9-95f2-4fbf-9d15-fb11aa7f7027-0
00:07:46.600 --> 00:07:48.440
So you have a fault above a
fault.

fd7ffb05-ae73-40fe-82ed-99f4628c384a-0
00:07:49.160 --> 00:07:53.832
Here's the slip area and 
we're looking out to the ocean,

fd7ffb05-ae73-40fe-82ed-99f4628c384a-1
00:07:53.832 --> 00:07:58.429
so up dip and then here's these
lineations seen in the North

fd7ffb05-ae73-40fe-82ed-99f4628c384a-2
00:07:58.429 --> 00:07:59.560
American Plate.

5b3cb736-7715-4725-bf12-0bf3f9a5641b-0
00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:04.440
So there was quite a bit of
activity in the Gorda Plate and

5b3cb736-7715-4725-bf12-0bf3f9a5641b-1
00:08:04.440 --> 00:08:06.240
all these other features.

b7649f25-1a3f-4ebf-ab29-2b73a699097d-0
00:08:07.440 --> 00:08:13.343
So the lesson learned is that
when you have an earthquake, it

b7649f25-1a3f-4ebf-ab29-2b73a699097d-1
00:08:13.343 --> 00:08:18.200
can excite and look at the
activity here and here.

080b8fd4-47fa-4c72-a606-686d53569996-0
00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:24.686
You can excite other features
with aftershocks that are

080b8fd4-47fa-4c72-a606-686d53569996-1
00:08:24.686 --> 00:08:30.868
related to the slip, but confuse
the interpretation of where the

080b8fd4-47fa-4c72-a606-686d53569996-2
00:08:30.868 --> 00:08:32.200
slip occurred.

c0683834-43a9-4741-9b26-51b18fdb79a0-0
00:08:34.280 --> 00:08:36.440
And so you need corroborative
evidence.

e84ecef7-20b2-46a5-8b80-991312a93e88-0
00:08:36.440 --> 00:08:40.912
And I would suggest that field
evidence is one of the strongest

e84ecef7-20b2-46a5-8b80-991312a93e88-1
00:08:40.912 --> 00:08:42.520
corroborative evidence.

656c1c49-551e-4434-a6cb-60a1f3bce3cb-0
00:08:43.280 --> 00:08:47.680
Here's the Honeydew earthquake
that I've spoke about,

32457b84-6cb2-44ab-b7c4-240550698fbf-0
00:08:47.680 --> 00:08:52.443
and notice that the aftershocks
of the Honeydew earthquake are

32457b84-6cb2-44ab-b7c4-240550698fbf-1
00:08:52.443 --> 00:08:54.560
all to the West or offshore.

653b7448-b216-45c1-a943-0c8cb438a9c9-0
00:08:55.040 --> 00:08:58.861
So the honeydew earthquake activated the

653b7448-b216-45c1-a943-0c8cb438a9c9-1
00:08:58.861 --> 00:09:02.760
Mendocino fault and the future
slip plane of 1992.

46199d9e-6bd1-4a56-8ff7-85660b5bef58-0
00:09:03.880 --> 00:09:08.923
And so some people have
suggested this is where the slip

46199d9e-6bd1-4a56-8ff7-85660b5bef58-1
00:09:08.923 --> 00:09:09.720
occurred.

04f5359b-d772-4698-8337-181dfd590ddc-0
00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:14.950
I would suggest to you that this
is where the slip occurred and

04f5359b-d772-4698-8337-181dfd590ddc-1
00:09:14.950 --> 00:09:19.445
this banana slug feature here is
the result of a field

04f5359b-d772-4698-8337-181dfd590ddc-2
00:09:19.445 --> 00:09:23.614
investigation of strong shaking
and so this is the

04f5359b-d772-4698-8337-181dfd590ddc-3
00:09:23.614 --> 00:09:24.839
interpretation.

d28514ac-a65e-4612-bd5d-22884e8a23b2-0
00:09:24.840 --> 00:09:30.366
It ruptured at depth and the nose
of the hanging wall failed much

d28514ac-a65e-4612-bd5d-22884e8a23b2-1
00:09:30.366 --> 00:09:35.127
like shown in James Brune foam
rubber models in the San

d28514ac-a65e-4612-bd5d-22884e8a23b2-2
00:09:35.127 --> 00:09:40.569
Fernando earthquake and such.
The strong motion evidence was

d28514ac-a65e-4612-bd5d-22884e8a23b2-3
00:09:40.569 --> 00:09:43.800
displaced boulders in Honeydew
Creek.

558eb8a7-169e-4db0-88b4-6e89b0e229c7-0
00:09:44.800 --> 00:09:46.160
Here's a socket.

99bdc066-6be8-4219-b93b-15343c302d06-0
00:09:46.480 --> 00:09:49.560
This cobble went up in the air
and landed.

430bb798-40a0-46c1-9614-667210956d27-0
00:09:50.200 --> 00:09:55.908
Here's a socket being pointed to
and this cobble went up in the

430bb798-40a0-46c1-9614-667210956d27-1
00:09:55.908 --> 00:09:57.960
air and is upside down.

ab314f66-5acc-4f58-8295-9f29181d4ff5-0
00:09:57.960 --> 00:10:04.770
So again the idea is this is
strong evidence that this is the

ab314f66-5acc-4f58-8295-9f29181d4ff5-1
00:10:04.770 --> 00:10:05.320
case 

42ae5296-9ce7-4014-9c39-4db9a5c5f30f-0
00:10:05.600 --> 00:10:09.120
the slip occurred at depth and
ruptured upward to the east.

2936d5d9-ffaa-4ca2-8c61-203ccba0867c-0
00:10:10.240 --> 00:10:15.700
So in conclusion, when you're
looking at the Mendocino Triple

2936d5d9-ffaa-4ca2-8c61-203ccba0867c-1
00:10:15.700 --> 00:10:21.160
Junction, be careful of using
just aftershocks to infer slip.

796b983f-279a-4211-8981-d3393a4e3ed0-0
00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:28.227
You need other evidence such as
now we have broadband's and

796b983f-279a-4211-8981-d3393a4e3ed0-1
00:10:28.227 --> 00:10:33.640
continuous GPS and of course
field evidence.

fe35c886-9236-488d-a112-fb4e8628b20f-0
00:10:34.080 --> 00:10:36.600
Field reconnaissance is very
important.

70ff7476-c20c-4c0f-b28f-27ca23f30c16-0
00:10:36.680 --> 00:10:37.840
Thank you very much.

ca2a4412-fb82-4944-b58f-fce127444cac-0
00:10:45.160 --> 00:10:46.920
Thanks, Bob, for that really
excellent talk.

8410e07a-921c-4b51-b9a2-1d27078cdcb8-0
00:10:46.920 --> 00:10:48.080
This is really fascinating.

ab7d1716-5694-4a17-bd3b-bc28d08060cb-0
00:10:48.080 --> 00:10:51.425
And of course, I want to talk
about the Humboldt

ab7d1716-5694-4a17-bd3b-bc28d08060cb-1
00:10:51.425 --> 00:10:52.560
earthquakes in 2022.

5b1be397-bb28-4237-9ada-dfd3d8ff3d09-0
00:10:53.600 --> 00:10:55.000
So we'll get to that in the
questions.

a5f7106a-480c-4dfb-8cdb-59f36cab1933-0
00:10:55.040 --> 00:10:58.573
Our next talk though is from Sue
Hough, also with the Earthquake

a5f7106a-480c-4dfb-8cdb-59f36cab1933-1
00:10:58.573 --> 00:11:00.120
Hazards Program at the USGS.

a6ebd3aa-1951-4278-a6cc-3294e4f21ea1-0
00:11:00.520 --> 00:11:04.149
And her topic will be insights
from the the one big lesson or

a6ebd3aa-1951-4278-a6cc-3294e4f21ea1-1
00:11:04.149 --> 00:11:06.960
critical lesson from the
Northridge earthquake.

258971b9-20e1-4ac9-94fc-fd2e2ab24c74-0
00:11:10.240 --> 00:11:14.074
Hello, thank you for tuning in
and thank you to the organizers

258971b9-20e1-4ac9-94fc-fd2e2ab24c74-1
00:11:14.074 --> 00:11:17.726
for allowing 10 minutes to talk
about a southern California

258971b9-20e1-4ac9-94fc-fd2e2ab24c74-2
00:11:17.726 --> 00:11:21.379
earthquake that hit the big
30 this year just a couple

258971b9-20e1-4ac9-94fc-fd2e2ab24c74-3
00:11:21.379 --> 00:11:24.240
weeks ago, the 1994 Northridge,
California earthquake.

67c32a2d-5b50-490b-b88e-f14f02d05cfa-0
00:11:24.560 --> 00:11:28.357
So Northridge had long-term
impacts and in so many different

67c32a2d-5b50-490b-b88e-f14f02d05cfa-1
00:11:28.357 --> 00:11:31.657
ways it impacted the building
codes and construction

67c32a2d-5b50-490b-b88e-f14f02d05cfa-2
00:11:31.657 --> 00:11:32.279
practices.

aa0905b6-9cb2-4a13-80ef-e0cf2269f6e0-0
00:11:33.200 --> 00:11:35.840
It led to retrofits of bridges
and overpasses.

ea6c789d-1cf7-401f-943e-988675ac20ab-0
00:11:36.280 --> 00:11:40.422
And within our field it really
spurred the development of

ea6c789d-1cf7-401f-943e-988675ac20ab-1
00:11:40.422 --> 00:11:44.637
seismic monitoring networks,
broadband networks, real-time

ea6c789d-1cf7-401f-943e-988675ac20ab-2
00:11:44.637 --> 00:11:48.351
systems and elements of data products

ea6c789d-1cf7-401f-943e-988675ac20ab-3
00:11:48.351 --> 00:11:50.279
that are now very familiar.

bc465d17-103c-44ce-ab82-74ba7b9e5609-0
00:11:50.280 --> 00:11:55.269
If you look back at what
happened at the time, science

bc465d17-103c-44ce-ab82-74ba7b9e5609-1
00:11:55.269 --> 00:11:58.280
really was different 30 years
ago.

6420e838-64cd-4dfe-aa9f-eb275aeed10c-0
00:11:58.280 --> 00:12:02.320
The initial overview publication
was spearheaded by Lucy Jones.

3edb47fc-1ae6-4582-ae6b-63a4b67f8513-0
00:12:02.320 --> 00:12:06.160
It came out nine months later,
presented some basic overview

3edb47fc-1ae6-4582-ae6b-63a4b67f8513-1
00:12:06.160 --> 00:12:09.560
results including some of the
aftershock relocations.

836663ec-42a8-4053-949c-9728f74e40cc-0
00:12:09.840 --> 00:12:14.777
It showed PGA values for about
200 free-filled stations that

836663ec-42a8-4053-949c-9728f74e40cc-1
00:12:14.777 --> 00:12:16.720
recorded 1%g or higher 

b5d26f62-4f3c-429a-aed2-435b1c6ab280-0
00:12:16.720 --> 00:12:17.360
at the time.

fe9b5d7d-ef25-471e-a55d-410c2f07ba72-0
00:12:17.360 --> 00:12:20.840
That really was a landmark
strong motion data set.

22f27c50-c0a4-4db5-844e-a02abb47c350-0
00:12:21.520 --> 00:12:26.920
The ground motion map from that
paper is shown here.

28b33ea5-52c8-4d95-b5bf-ee5faec2ca25-0
00:12:26.920 --> 00:12:30.700
If you look closely there are
some triangles there bend PGA

28b33ea5-52c8-4d95-b5bf-ee5faec2ca25-1
00:12:30.700 --> 00:12:34.480
values and there is some 
other information on the map.

9c0bc32d-ae32-4819-a115-d0585ba2d437-0
00:12:34.480 --> 00:12:39.079
Well, around this time people
were realizing that

9c0bc32d-ae32-4819-a115-d0585ba2d437-1
00:12:39.079 --> 00:12:43.824
moving towards a broadband
seismic monitoring network would

9c0bc32d-ae32-4819-a115-d0585ba2d437-2
00:12:43.824 --> 00:12:47.620
allow networks to go from
determining magnitude and

9c0bc32d-ae32-4819-a115-d0585ba2d437-3
00:12:47.620 --> 00:12:51.416
epicenter or hypocenter to
actually mapping out the

9c0bc32d-ae32-4819-a115-d0585ba2d437-4
00:12:51.416 --> 00:12:53.679
distribution of ground motions.

0453b8ac-8ce9-4d80-84a2-667dc29bce25-0
00:12:54.120 --> 00:12:58.448
And so that as things move
forward, it was a project that

0453b8ac-8ce9-4d80-84a2-667dc29bce25-1
00:12:58.448 --> 00:13:03.374
Dave Wald spearheaded to develop
what became the ShakeMap system

0453b8ac-8ce9-4d80-84a2-667dc29bce25-2
00:13:03.374 --> 00:13:05.240
that's now very familiar.

78a63833-7fd0-45ad-8e2e-7a64aca09ba3-0
00:13:05.240 --> 00:13:09.323
And around the same time ShakeMap's 
little sister Did You Feel

78a63833-7fd0-45ad-8e2e-7a64aca09ba3-1
00:13:09.323 --> 00:13:13.280
It? is a online system to collect
user reports of earthquakes.

f5ee3bc8-2243-4c65-b8be-b324f74a6e93-0
00:13:13.280 --> 00:13:15.320
I'm going to get back to that in
a minute.

30caac17-54c0-479f-9fce-308fb61083dc-0
00:13:17.360 --> 00:13:21.680
So seismology has come so far in
30 years.

240e83d5-2314-4009-a2ca-9c1096ea7fda-0
00:13:21.680 --> 00:13:25.907
I wanted to take one of 
my 10 minutes to show this

240e83d5-2314-4009-a2ca-9c1096ea7fda-1
00:13:25.907 --> 00:13:29.360
animation, which was put
together by Rob Graves (USGS).

c20c4d8f-fb2c-48d5-a4d5-a6e620d1671d-0
00:13:31.280 --> 00:13:36.170
So this shows predictions of
shaking in a complicated 3D

c20c4d8f-fb2c-48d5-a4d5-a6e620d1671d-1
00:13:36.170 --> 00:13:37.800
velocity structure.

93eb3ed8-c680-48ed-8aac-ed8ffe3d29fb-0
00:13:37.800 --> 00:13:40.080
It's not a research grade
simulation.

d3c10da5-84e3-40b4-acfc-4430cb79d5cb-0
00:13:40.080 --> 00:13:41.520
It's up to 1 hz.

ffa6d2c5-1850-43ad-9b9c-03fd423ae27f-0
00:13:41.800 --> 00:13:43.680
But it's really fascinating to
watch.

a150b8ad-b0f1-4108-8352-effeb47be8d7-0
00:13:43.680 --> 00:13:47.028
If you haven't seen it already,
you can watch the 

a150b8ad-b0f1-4108-8352-effeb47be8d7-1
00:13:47.028 --> 00:13:49.880
propagation effects in the
northern LA basin.

fb77b92c-f02e-4878-8397-d3139abb95d4-0
00:13:49.880 --> 00:13:53.450
You can see this amplification
that was in the area of the I-10

fb77b92c-f02e-4878-8397-d3139abb95d4-1
00:13:53.450 --> 00:13:56.240
collapsed as well as any number
of other effects.

92130025-657a-497c-9c90-1887d4dfa846-0
00:13:56.240 --> 00:13:58.520
So if you haven't seen it, it's
online.

ba0e7aa7-4966-47b5-9cf0-7df9d497a523-0
00:13:58.520 --> 00:14:03.772
I would encourage you to to go
and play with it, but I'm gonna

ba0e7aa7-4966-47b5-9cf0-7df9d497a523-1
00:14:03.772 --> 00:14:04.440
move on.

7b045c06-a082-4e5c-a3f7-600f13f4c84c-0
00:14:04.800 --> 00:14:08.607
Oops, not play it again and talk
about the impact of the

7b045c06-a082-4e5c-a3f7-600f13f4c84c-1
00:14:08.607 --> 00:14:11.480
Northridge earthquake on macroseismology.

0b07191a-0a1d-4a33-94a8-5a8f13011977-0
00:14:11.480 --> 00:14:15.886
Macrseismology is defined to
mean the effects of earthquakes,

0b07191a-0a1d-4a33-94a8-5a8f13011977-1
00:14:15.886 --> 00:14:20.154
shaking on people, and the built
environment, and so this is a

0b07191a-0a1d-4a33-94a8-5a8f13011977-2
00:14:20.154 --> 00:14:23.803
nice set of thumbnail
illustrations that Remy Bossu's

0b07191a-0a1d-4a33-94a8-5a8f13011977-3
00:14:23.803 --> 00:14:25.800
group in France put together.

dfe7e5ab-5f0a-4d17-beb4-d0d16e14ef83-0
00:14:26.200 --> 00:14:30.563
It shows the range of effects
pictorially from Did I feel

dfe7e5ab-5f0a-4d17-beb4-d0d16e14ef83-1
00:14:30.563 --> 00:14:34.626
something all the way to 
extreme damage and you're

dfe7e5ab-5f0a-4d17-beb4-d0d16e14ef83-2
00:14:34.626 --> 00:14:39.290
thinking, wait a minute macroseismology, 
that's ancient and

dfe7e5ab-5f0a-4d17-beb4-d0d16e14ef83-3
00:14:39.290 --> 00:14:43.353
it goes back to
Robert Mallett in the 19th

dfe7e5ab-5f0a-4d17-beb4-d0d16e14ef83-4
00:14:43.353 --> 00:14:47.040
century putting together early
isoseismal maps.

9af353f1-26cf-4939-9999-47bcd71e1658-0
00:14:47.040 --> 00:14:49.560
In fact, it goes back even
earlier than that.

a1aa6a54-d010-48e2-928e-abdb861c8303-0
00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:54.233
So macroseismology has
continued through the 20th

a1aa6a54-d010-48e2-928e-abdb861c8303-1
00:14:54.233 --> 00:14:58.160
century, largely focused on
historical earthquakes.

f7aa5c67-4dc9-4929-9a7a-777209ac858b-0
00:14:58.160 --> 00:15:00.854
If you don't have any
instrumental data, 

f7aa5c67-4dc9-4929-9a7a-777209ac858b-1
00:15:00.854 --> 00:15:03.320
macroseismology is is pretty much all
you have.

7a5dd5bb-8a4b-4ff3-b6dd-04ee745e0457-0
00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:07.770
But it continued through the
20th century for earthquakes, as

7a5dd5bb-8a4b-4ff3-b6dd-04ee745e0457-1
00:15:07.770 --> 00:15:11.120
they happened putting together
these intensity maps.

70041502-0ece-4bdb-8726-47de9d367786-0
00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:15.577
When Northridge happened, Jim
Dewey led a project to do the

70041502-0ece-4bdb-8726-47de9d367786-1
00:15:15.577 --> 00:15:16.840
intensity survey.

de5ab246-7970-4fb1-b2f1-4cc94ed1d0c4-0
00:15:16.840 --> 00:15:20.856
They sent out 610 mail
questionnaires to post offices,

de5ab246-7970-4fb1-b2f1-4cc94ed1d0c4-1
00:15:20.856 --> 00:15:23.120
54 to fire and police stations.

c11e5497-d29f-405b-a3a1-17ec84aedf0f-0
00:15:23.400 --> 00:15:27.040
They got a 75% return rate,
which is impressive.

1af34a9b-e0c4-47d0-b31e-73f248ed73d9-0
00:15:27.040 --> 00:15:31.800
They use those questionnaires to
assign intensities manually.

65ceb728-9fe6-46f5-ad70-7c04164a60b9-0
00:15:31.800 --> 00:15:36.320
It's essentially expert opinion
and traditionally that's done.

0d3cfbfc-c1a3-498d-999f-1fd8e8ad6397-0
00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:40.760
People assign whole number
intensities, 5, 6, 7, so forth.

14dfdd24-ef01-4117-a6fc-f1f377b72112-0
00:15:41.160 --> 00:15:45.240
Sometimes people would assign a
range of intermediate values.

d9ef24ab-e151-4e3d-a5b0-dbc4f4e34ca3-0
00:15:46.400 --> 00:15:51.579
Well, following that, Lori
Dengler teamed up with Jim Dewey

d9ef24ab-e151-4e3d-a5b0-dbc4f4e34ca3-1
00:15:51.579 --> 00:15:56.500
to cast a wider net with
telephone surveys to about 6,000

d9ef24ab-e151-4e3d-a5b0-dbc4f4e34ca3-2
00:15:56.500 --> 00:15:58.400
adults and households.

387ad954-525a-4668-a228-895d0dec4788-0
00:15:58.760 --> 00:16:01.120
They used the standard
questionnaire.

d242e25f-bd1c-441e-b8c6-ee07368c3423-0
00:16:01.120 --> 00:16:02.480
Did you feel it?

d61580c9-9463-43f3-82e3-8749e56e77db-0
00:16:02.880 --> 00:16:05.560
How did you react all the way up
to was there damage?

0b6bd5aa-99c6-4ea6-8fd8-64595354a1b8-0
00:16:06.480 --> 00:16:08.975
And they could have rolled up
their sleeves and assigned

0b6bd5aa-99c6-4ea6-8fd8-64595354a1b8-1
00:16:08.975 --> 00:16:09.720
intensity values,

af767668-772d-4634-af2e-e6fd62031cce-0
00:16:09.720 --> 00:16:15.039
but they decided to use each
question and turn it into an

af767668-772d-4634-af2e-e6fd62031cce-1
00:16:15.039 --> 00:16:18.800
index that they could treat
numerically.

c6adcf8a-0f45-4df6-be89-e758b2fa24c8-0
00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:24.520
So the way this goes, they
defined these indices.

8bed05ed-2d79-4343-b134-04c3178f49a9-0
00:16:24.800 --> 00:16:27.920
Some of the answers lend
themselves to fractions.

99c1256c-5d16-4e5c-98e9-02126cd4c505-0
00:16:27.920 --> 00:16:29.160
Did people feel the earthquake?

8f0d477b-bac7-47bb-8760-5d14ac89052a-0
00:16:29.160 --> 00:16:30.040
What percentage?

45dd691f-3c7b-45a2-af65-64ce0ff70bb2-0
00:16:30.040 --> 00:16:35.064
Some of them they used to define
ranges of indices from 0 to

45dd691f-3c7b-45a2-af65-64ce0ff70bb2-1
00:16:35.064 --> 00:16:39.932
3 or 0 to 5, and then
they put these terms together in

45dd691f-3c7b-45a2-af65-64ce0ff70bb2-2
00:16:39.932 --> 00:16:44.800
a clever way with scaling to
define a community weighted sum.

dbd04f0e-f304-4a9f-9c3c-607e3556bc3d-0
00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:49.679
And from that community weighted
sum they determined community

dbd04f0e-f304-4a9f-9c3c-607e3556bc3d-1
00:16:49.679 --> 00:16:53.762
decimal intensities that matched
the intensities that were

dbd04f0e-f304-4a9f-9c3c-607e3556bc3d-2
00:16:53.762 --> 00:16:57.637
assigned with expert opinion,
Well, this really was the

dbd04f0e-f304-4a9f-9c3c-607e3556bc3d-3
00:16:57.637 --> 00:16:59.160
landmark contribution.

54aa4db3-0a91-436d-a311-45bbc80e4921-0
00:16:59.160 --> 00:17:03.518
This little equation brings
macroseismology into the 21st

54aa4db3-0a91-436d-a311-45bbc80e4921-1
00:17:03.518 --> 00:17:07.655
century, potentially into the
big data era because it's

54aa4db3-0a91-436d-a311-45bbc80e4921-2
00:17:07.655 --> 00:17:08.320
scalable.

4d517b1a-8069-4e96-8f29-0378a642e7c6-0
00:17:08.320 --> 00:17:12.200
You're not rolling up your
sleeves to assign intensity

4d517b1a-8069-4e96-8f29-0378a642e7c6-1
00:17:12.200 --> 00:17:15.727
values, you're using an
algorithm, and so you can

4d517b1a-8069-4e96-8f29-0378a642e7c6-2
00:17:15.727 --> 00:17:19.537
collect any number of
questionnaires and analyze them

4d517b1a-8069-4e96-8f29-0378a642e7c6-3
00:17:19.537 --> 00:17:21.160
easily and objectively.

bdb23db0-a0a3-493f-97c8-3c7e7a2e1bd6-0
00:17:21.160 --> 00:17:25.869
So that's at the stage very
quickly for the Did You Feel It?

bdb23db0-a0a3-493f-97c8-3c7e7a2e1bd6-1
00:17:25.869 --> 00:17:30.108
system, Dave Wall, Vince
Quitoriano with Lori and Jim

bdb23db0-a0a3-493f-97c8-3c7e7a2e1bd6-2
00:17:30.108 --> 00:17:34.818
developed the system to 
collect the report and determine

bdb23db0-a0a3-493f-97c8-3c7e7a2e1bd6-3
00:17:34.818 --> 00:17:35.760
intensities.

c8a16a34-fc12-478a-ba4b-6c8448885e9d-0
00:17:35.760 --> 00:17:39.200
I think it succeeded beyond
wildest expectations.

d690eacc-9104-47d0-bb67-6131e588f7ac-0
00:17:39.200 --> 00:17:44.067
This map was put together a few years

d690eacc-9104-47d0-bb67-6131e588f7ac-1
00:17:44.067 --> 00:17:48.605
ago showing the maximum
intensity values across the U.S.

d690eacc-9104-47d0-bb67-6131e588f7ac-2
00:17:48.605 --> 00:17:49.760
over 20 years.

d8a203a0-b3bb-420f-9d89-a235ce1f61fd-0
00:17:50.080 --> 00:17:54.817
This information has been
used for myriad applications

d8a203a0-b3bb-420f-9d89-a235ce1f61fd-1
00:17:54.817 --> 00:17:58.778
for ground motion
investigations to early warning

d8a203a0-b3bb-420f-9d89-a235ce1f61fd-2
00:17:58.778 --> 00:17:59.400
systems.

06f9ee3a-e850-4f8d-a64a-a37a96c7f89b-0
00:18:00.520 --> 00:18:07.667
I wanted to take a a quick
detour to a historical event,

06f9ee3a-e850-4f8d-a64a-a37a96c7f89b-1
00:18:07.667 --> 00:18:11.360
the 1886 Charleston earthquake.

7fce8f04-358c-4b4e-9b4f-a3f08725e440-0
00:18:11.760 --> 00:18:15.080
We have a quite good intensity
map.

81309543-de09-4d9a-9411-e75199db604a-0
00:18:15.080 --> 00:18:18.825
This was Rossi Ferrell
intensities for that earthquake

81309543-de09-4d9a-9411-e75199db604a-1
00:18:18.825 --> 00:18:22.640
put together by Clarence Dutton
and his his colleagues.

6ac7f499-863e-4698-8e20-bb4539376d0e-0
00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:26.477
They were actually using a
forerunner of the standard

6ac7f499-863e-4698-8e20-bb4539376d0e-1
00:18:26.477 --> 00:18:27.400
questionnaire.

ad8082bf-67d4-45a4-b13f-876a85bc1459-0
00:18:27.400 --> 00:18:30.680
It was a USGS circular way back
in 1886.

476d39b0-d0cc-4249-b264-b8f462ed5001-0
00:18:30.680 --> 00:18:35.009
But there is an impressive
compilation of of macroseismic

476d39b0-d0cc-4249-b264-b8f462ed5001-1
00:18:35.009 --> 00:18:37.280
information for this earthquake.

e03c9915-b59f-4b34-9190-fcce6166bae6-0
00:18:37.760 --> 00:18:41.760
So I went back to that, used it
to assign ratified Mercalli

e03c9915-b59f-4b34-9190-fcce6166bae6-1
00:18:41.760 --> 00:18:43.760
intensities, these black dots.

2d38706e-d7af-4550-b95c-ad91b0ab0ceb-0
00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:45.920
So there's a lot going on 
this panel.

db98fc82-4040-49b2-91b3-4446b535157f-0
00:18:46.200 --> 00:18:49.841
There's some predicted
intensities using the NGA East

db98fc82-4040-49b2-91b3-4446b535157f-1
00:18:49.841 --> 00:18:52.840
relationships, but there's also
red dots.

c9b1fd10-2147-4ec1-bad9-d2477330c44e-0
00:18:52.840 --> 00:18:53.960
What are the red dots?

54936513-4731-4b3d-afcd-49cbe817ef68-0
00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:57.510
Well, because the information is
so detailed, you can actually

54936513-4731-4b3d-afcd-49cbe817ef68-1
00:18:57.510 --> 00:19:01.229
use some of the accounts to feed
the information into the Did you

54936513-4731-4b3d-afcd-49cbe817ef68-2
00:19:01.229 --> 00:19:01.680
Feel it?

d3ffc04f-b731-40de-9f56-aa09c4e03da2-0
00:19:01.680 --> 00:19:06.801
algorithm and you end up with
Did You Feel It? intensities and

d3ffc04f-b731-40de-9f56-aa09c4e03da2-1
00:19:06.801 --> 00:19:11.922
it turns out that they match
quite nicely with the values

d3ffc04f-b731-40de-9f56-aa09c4e03da2-2
00:19:11.922 --> 00:19:17.127
that you assign subjectively. So
these sets opens the door

d3ffc04f-b731-40de-9f56-aa09c4e03da2-3
00:19:17.127 --> 00:19:19.440
to a did they feel it scale.

d2b8be61-f0e9-42ab-b854-664b2dc28812-0
00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:21.887
There's some issues here that
are interesting that I don't

d2b8be61-f0e9-42ab-b854-664b2dc28812-1
00:19:21.887 --> 00:19:22.800
have time to get into.

4e1f6485-707a-4a82-8c94-02ff781d4109-0
00:19:22.800 --> 00:19:25.160
I wanna come back and end with
Northridge.

a9507aec-25ba-47cd-896b-9c1bea0f408c-0
00:19:26.760 --> 00:19:30.804
So for the anniversary we there
were a number of activities,

a9507aec-25ba-47cd-896b-9c1bea0f408c-1
00:19:30.804 --> 00:19:33.920
mostly public facing to
commemorate the event.

d385e868-e159-440d-947d-83b59ad84501-0
00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:39.233
And the centerpiece of those
efforts was asking the public if

d385e868-e159-440d-947d-83b59ad84501-1
00:19:39.233 --> 00:19:41.360
they felt the earthquake.

6260cb8f-ff2f-48e2-82c7-bc372f2ab848-0
00:19:41.880 --> 00:19:46.081
So did you feel it was was
developed in 99 but it can

6260cb8f-ff2f-48e2-82c7-bc372f2ab848-1
00:19:46.081 --> 00:19:50.360
collect reports for earthquakes
that happened earlier.

3e065039-71e3-44f3-bfd0-071a5c3b9f25-0
00:19:50.360 --> 00:19:51.920
People come back to the system.

b9d6563e-554d-43e5-8ccb-d4021cc564fa-0
00:19:52.520 --> 00:19:56.691
A lot of people that done that
before we started this, but we

b9d6563e-554d-43e5-8ccb-d4021cc564fa-1
00:19:56.691 --> 00:20:00.930
started asking people if they
felt it, please come in and tell

b9d6563e-554d-43e5-8ccb-d4021cc564fa-2
00:20:00.930 --> 00:20:02.680
us and contribute to this 

dd2f7670-f1fd-4515-8217-91849c5f7d22-0
00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:07.920
map and and we've gotten a a a
pretty good response to that.

a0e76729-1ff3-4051-841e-17992f3b37cc-0
00:20:08.360 --> 00:20:15.920
So we we put out calls via the
media and social media.

fad43ffc-874e-4381-81a0-550511652d47-0
00:20:15.920 --> 00:20:21.131
There was a tweet that went out
in Spanish because we're hoping

fad43ffc-874e-4381-81a0-550511652d47-1
00:20:21.131 --> 00:20:25.040
to catch cast a wider net and
then the QR code.

3e326954-7f51-43fa-9187-fe837fdf6509-0
00:20:25.520 --> 00:20:26.800
If you can get your phone out.

5b612b48-7df4-44cc-b155-b34fb9210cdb-0
00:20:26.800 --> 00:20:29.840
I think there's 30 seconds left
in my 10 minutes.

88245862-1e75-431d-9dd7-f99ad54e2f5a-0
00:20:30.240 --> 00:20:34.782
This QR code, if you were in the
region, should take you to the

88245862-1e75-431d-9dd7-f99ad54e2f5a-1
00:20:34.782 --> 00:20:39.325
questionnaire to fill out your
report for the Northridge earthquake

88245862-1e75-431d-9dd7-f99ad54e2f5a-2
00:20:39.325 --> 00:20:39.680
So I will

283f5fcc-177c-428b-978c-35247334fd73-0
00:20:40.280 --> 00:20:44.520
stop recording when my
10 minutes are up.

e88a11f8-7bc8-4a7e-88ad-90d189885ef4-0
00:20:45.000 --> 00:20:58.133
Thank you again to the
organizers.

e88a11f8-7bc8-4a7e-88ad-90d189885ef4-1
00:20:58.133 --> 00:20:59.620
Getting my QR code there.

d2da111e-4f0e-4fd6-af5a-c5a629b77fe3-0
00:21:01.740 --> 00:21:03.460
Thank you Sue for that great
talk.

7dca6e2c-c20d-4229-af51-ac6a70c3a840-0
00:21:04.100 --> 00:21:09.236
Next up is David Schwartz, who's
going to be talking about the

7dca6e2c-c20d-4229-af51-ac6a70c3a840-1
00:21:09.236 --> 00:21:13.720
Trans Alaska pipeline and the
2002 earthquake rupture.

fc3413a9-1a88-475a-97dd-391cbe92ea9f-0
00:21:13.720 --> 00:21:16.680
in the one lesson from that take
it away.

d92679df-da0e-4abb-99dc-a5171f67ec1d-0
00:21:17.840 --> 00:21:18.680
Hi everyone.

47c532ff-f27c-4aeb-89bb-e038734aa276-0
00:21:18.680 --> 00:21:20.080
My name is David Schwartz.

1191c4c2-18d1-404a-b6fb-20eb8df17444-0
00:21:20.080 --> 00:21:23.160
I'm a scientist emeritus at the
USGS.

58e510a6-ed4a-496a-97b7-93c191c24c67-0
00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:29.331
And my example of a lesson
learned from an earthquake, derise

58e510a6-ed4a-496a-97b7-93c191c24c67-1
00:21:29.331 --> 00:21:35.384
from the magnitude 7.9 2002
Denali fault earthquake in South

58e510a6-ed4a-496a-97b7-93c191c24c67-2
00:21:35.384 --> 00:21:36.760
Central Alaska.

1968e516-6976-4e6d-b214-eebd2f5469f2-0
00:21:38.160 --> 00:21:44.026
It has critical implications for
defining or characterizing fault

1968e516-6976-4e6d-b214-eebd2f5469f2-1
00:21:44.026 --> 00:21:48.560
displacement across
infrastructure like pipelines.

31272160-abb7-44dd-b835-3eb3f58091df-0
00:21:49.160 --> 00:21:52.880
And in this case it was the
Trans Alaska pipeline.

c4a0249d-b57b-40c3-a32e-d21ba1bc641c-0
00:21:53.240 --> 00:21:58.494
And this is of particular
interest to me because in 1973,

c4a0249d-b57b-40c3-a32e-d21ba1bc641c-1
00:21:58.494 --> 00:22:04.020
I was a member of the fault
study group for the pipeline and

c4a0249d-b57b-40c3-a32e-d21ba1bc641c-2
00:22:04.020 --> 00:22:09.456
I had the chance to go back
after the 2002 event to map the

c4a0249d-b57b-40c3-a32e-d21ba1bc641c-3
00:22:09.456 --> 00:22:10.000
fault.

d7067bd9-6e8c-4099-93c9-31737431d677-0
00:22:10.360 --> 00:22:15.080
And as Yogi Bear said, "it's
like deja vu all over again."

07bf8c33-49ae-4b3d-9504-0919e4027e95-0
00:22:15.080 --> 00:22:20.271
So what you're looking at on
this slide is the rupture from

07bf8c33-49ae-4b3d-9504-0919e4027e95-1
00:22:20.271 --> 00:22:23.560
the 2002 earthquake along the
Denali.

fe0e523c-6bbf-4eb4-ac80-37fd453f4905-0
00:22:23.840 --> 00:22:28.000
It propagated onto the Tachunda
and these are aftershocks.

aff940df-00b9-4777-8960-b30635dbc25b-0
00:22:28.680 --> 00:22:34.214
The earthquake or the rupture
was 341km long with a

aff940df-00b9-4777-8960-b30635dbc25b-1
00:22:34.214 --> 00:22:37.480
maximum displacement of 8.8
meters.

fe54e7de-a480-4ba9-aa68-42b037e170bf-0
00:22:37.880 --> 00:22:42.336
And on this chart, you can see
how it compares with other

fe54e7de-a480-4ba9-aa68-42b037e170bf-1
00:22:42.336 --> 00:22:46.869
similar size shallow crustal
strike-slip events that have

fe54e7de-a480-4ba9-aa68-42b037e170bf-2
00:22:46.869 --> 00:22:48.560
occurred historically.

e90a66a9-40d8-46da-b493-97c5f77c58dc-0
00:22:48.840 --> 00:22:49.960
It's right in there.

1b1fa397-a52c-488f-b49d-e45e29350215-0
00:22:51.080 --> 00:22:55.958
In the bottom part, you're
looking at a distribution of

1b1fa397-a52c-488f-b49d-e45e29350215-1
00:22:55.958 --> 00:22:58.920
slip or offset along the
rupture.

33dc2ae9-b4ba-465b-9489-90ed89dfa85e-0
00:22:59.480 --> 00:23:02.520
The Trans Alaska pipeline is
right here.

74aa6013-ccd2-4e52-8746-43bea7961b67-0
00:23:02.880 --> 00:23:07.966
And in these two little slides,
you can see the rupture through

74aa6013-ccd2-4e52-8746-43bea7961b67-1
00:23:07.966 --> 00:23:08.920
glacial ice.

39e85f29-12d4-4181-802b-2051c302b3d0-0
00:23:09.280 --> 00:23:11.240
It was 90km of that.

a7489d03-a263-4394-af59-072b1f28414f-0
00:23:11.680 --> 00:23:13.800
This hadn't happened before that
we know of.

10b79672-1a54-44fc-b71b-ed599c6498cf-0
00:23:14.160 --> 00:23:22.040
And in the bottom there's a 7m
offset in alluvial deposits.

dbe7a2f1-13d0-44d6-970a-0ce79c1d2195-0
00:23:27.120 --> 00:23:32.367
OK, this is the 
Trans Alaska Pipeline, extending

dbe7a2f1-13d0-44d6-970a-0ce79c1d2195-1
00:23:32.367 --> 00:23:35.120
from Prudhoe Bay down to Valdez.

02bb21e8-5fa2-449c-bec0-6f8074c2a8f5-0
00:23:35.520 --> 00:23:40.160
It was first proposed in 1969 to
the Department of Interior.

05a42f91-3657-414b-b774-f3e76424ec90-0
00:23:40.880 --> 00:23:45.880
It created a lot of questions,
environmental and engineering.

e2b42dfe-37ee-44ac-a7f0-aa20386531a2-0
00:23:46.880 --> 00:23:50.677
The USGS in Menlo Park was
heavily involved in this and

e2b42dfe-37ee-44ac-a7f0-aa20386531a2-1
00:23:50.677 --> 00:23:54.339
they were really questions of
what would it do to the

e2b42dfe-37ee-44ac-a7f0-aa20386531a2-2
00:23:54.339 --> 00:23:57.120
permafrost, how would rivers be
crossed?

9c0a8810-6339-4b31-b5c3-988414d68e71-0
00:23:57.800 --> 00:24:02.296
Well, how would it affect
wildlife migration like Caribou

9c0a8810-6339-4b31-b5c3-988414d68e71-1
00:24:02.296 --> 00:24:04.080
and lastly earthquakes.

b091ce95-640b-441d-9a5c-b9469d455e26-0
00:24:04.440 --> 00:24:09.386
So these zones with a Richter
zone, as you see, these are

b091ce95-640b-441d-9a5c-b9469d455e26-1
00:24:09.386 --> 00:24:14.929
zones developed by the USGS with
the maximum expected earthquake

b091ce95-640b-441d-9a5c-b9469d455e26-2
00:24:14.929 --> 00:24:16.720
to be used in design.

8ba81e0e-6369-4125-a69a-18d377bee1f0-0
00:24:17.600 --> 00:24:20.440
The pipeline was authorized in
'73.

d43737f8-6540-45eb-8381-bf2e3c8f139b-0
00:24:21.000 --> 00:24:24.480
It was constructed between '74
and '77.

2bf76062-10e7-4ff0-b4d3-5f4198c617cf-0
00:24:25.280 --> 00:24:30.430
It was almost 1,300 kilometers
long and cost $8 billion, which

2bf76062-10e7-4ff0-b4d3-5f4198c617cf-1
00:24:30.430 --> 00:24:35.000
included the pump stations and
the terminal at Valdez.

69a50192-ec82-47fd-8b70-42fa181d128d-0
00:24:35.480 --> 00:24:42.520
At the time it was constructed
it carried 27% of U.S. daily oil

69a50192-ec82-47fd-8b70-42fa181d128d-1
00:24:42.520 --> 00:24:45.360
and today it carries 13%.

eb4916ab-30c8-425d-b329-aa609c6fddbd-0
00:24:45.760 --> 00:24:50.011
So you get some feeling for what
the pipeline looked like and

eb4916ab-30c8-425d-b329-aa609c6fddbd-1
00:24:50.011 --> 00:24:52.000
what some of the issues were.

751cb16f-1837-4f6e-862b-4a8606efb820-0
00:24:52.840 --> 00:24:56.712
In 1973, a group was put
together, a group of geologists

751cb16f-1837-4f6e-862b-4a8606efb820-1
00:24:56.712 --> 00:25:00.722
to fly the pipeline route and
look for evidence of act of

751cb16f-1837-4f6e-862b-4a8606efb820-2
00:25:00.722 --> 00:25:02.520
faulting along its length.

185acbba-e6ca-4566-ab52-602c1cfa60c1-0
00:25:03.720 --> 00:25:07.733
This is the group that was
headed up by Lloyd Cluff from

185acbba-e6ca-4566-ab52-602c1cfa60c1-1
00:25:07.733 --> 00:25:12.161
Woodward Clyde Consultants and
really his second in command was

185acbba-e6ca-4566-ab52-602c1cfa60c1-2
00:25:12.161 --> 00:25:15.759
Burt Slemmons from the University
of Nevada at Reno.

22e4f945-f3c8-4397-acad-7600e4aac599-0
00:25:16.120 --> 00:25:20.903
You may recognize some of the
people, Gary Carver who became

22e4f945-f3c8-4397-acad-7600e4aac599-1
00:25:20.903 --> 00:25:26.165
chair at Humboldt State and many
of you may have worked with Gary

22e4f945-f3c8-4397-acad-7600e4aac599-2
00:25:26.165 --> 00:25:27.600
or taking classes.

9e24ff76-6496-4209-b009-f5ada3715eef-0
00:25:28.160 --> 00:25:33.589
This guy in the yellow parker is
Kerry Sieh, a young Kerry C, before

9e24ff76-6496-4209-b009-f5ada3715eef-1
00:25:33.589 --> 00:25:36.680
he went to Caltech to start his
PhD.

c6ab8569-2c43-410c-9bb5-de3d2334c88e-0
00:25:37.040 --> 00:25:43.170
And this guy right here, long
hair and beard, is yours truly

c6ab8569-2c43-410c-9bb5-de3d2334c88e-1
00:25:43.170 --> 00:25:45.080
from New York City.

a1f119aa-6414-4f79-a4ae-bdb567b78118-0
00:25:45.640 --> 00:25:48.040
It was a fantastic group of
geologists.

115cbf52-d8d7-44a4-893b-4be0a901c56c-0
00:25:49.760 --> 00:25:53.710
One of the things we needed to
do was to trace where the Denali

115cbf52-d8d7-44a4-893b-4be0a901c56c-1
00:25:53.710 --> 00:25:56.920
fault crossed the pipeline, and
that was a problem.

6c6178fc-f7fd-46a5-a6e1-b282032c323a-0
00:25:57.480 --> 00:26:01.133
We were able to see the fault on
land, and the red line

6c6178fc-f7fd-46a5-a6e1-b282032c323a-1
00:26:01.133 --> 00:26:02.960
represents the 2002 rupture.

ff41be18-413e-4f48-ab3e-6d1d74b92507-0
00:26:03.720 --> 00:26:07.314
But then there was the Delta
River and there were soft

ff41be18-413e-4f48-ab3e-6d1d74b92507-1
00:26:07.314 --> 00:26:11.627
sediments, fluvial deposits from
the Delta River, and then to the

ff41be18-413e-4f48-ab3e-6d1d74b92507-2
00:26:11.627 --> 00:26:13.000
east of the pipeline.

e511122d-e80f-426e-8c13-6eada6aac520-0
00:26:13.000 --> 00:26:17.391
This whole area had been
modified during the Alaskan

e511122d-e80f-426e-8c13-6eada6aac520-1
00:26:17.391 --> 00:26:22.694
Little Ice Age between the 1300s
and the middle 1800s, so there

e511122d-e80f-426e-8c13-6eada6aac520-2
00:26:22.694 --> 00:26:25.760
was no expression of young
faulting.

99a5d3a8-5d1d-4616-89cc-2264716e30f1-0
00:26:27.560 --> 00:26:29.680
So there were fundamental
questions raised.

7dc7e509-70b6-4dce-8856-4f8849b785a8-0
00:26:29.680 --> 00:26:32.840
Where does the fault cross the
proposed pipeline route?

3d9ce2f8-f83c-4689-bdea-9e35dd8ffb7f-0
00:26:33.400 --> 00:26:36.120
How much slip to accommodate in
a design?

0c6fce59-b7e0-419b-9a5b-1c27d06b5c3f-0
00:26:36.400 --> 00:26:40.264
Because there were no data on
the amount of slip from prior

0c6fce59-b7e0-419b-9a5b-1c27d06b5c3f-1
00:26:40.264 --> 00:26:42.840
earthquakes and actually how to
design.

f4555258-2c85-442b-93cf-5c6d34235b20-0
00:26:44.240 --> 00:26:48.172
So this was the group of
pipeline gurus that were put

f4555258-2c85-442b-93cf-5c6d34235b20-1
00:26:48.172 --> 00:26:49.920
together for the offset.

7cd58292-b17a-4da9-9082-a64cbdb43d28-0
00:26:49.920 --> 00:26:53.924
Lloyd Cluff from Woodward,
Clyde; Burt Slemmons, Nevada,

7cd58292-b17a-4da9-9082-a64cbdb43d28-1
00:26:53.924 --> 00:26:58.000
Reno; and Clarence Allen from
Caltech became part of this.

42a1ef4d-7297-4cbc-847c-f91a4fb4e854-0
00:26:58.520 --> 00:27:03.330
And even though there were no
data, these guys had a lot

42a1ef4d-7297-4cbc-847c-f91a4fb4e854-1
00:27:03.330 --> 00:27:04.400
of experience.

14a93ea3-5778-4658-99a9-044e86d294d5-0
00:27:04.400 --> 00:27:07.720
They had looked at the 1906
rupture.

8c6eadd8-a6d4-43aa-80c6-e00c12fdd052-0
00:27:07.720 --> 00:27:14.560
They had looked at the 1939
rupture in Turkey.

562ad109-c67d-40eb-a05e-469ff2e1f11e-0
00:27:14.760 --> 00:27:17.640
They had looked at other long
strikes that faults.

9586a19d-b1c3-4842-baa9-759f87b336db-0
00:27:17.920 --> 00:27:21.545
So they had a pretty good
feeling that with a fault like

9586a19d-b1c3-4842-baa9-759f87b336db-1
00:27:21.545 --> 00:27:24.280
the Denali, what type of offset
to expect.

71836b0b-10e5-494e-89c4-6e65e13c487d-0
00:27:24.920 --> 00:27:29.833
And then for the design, it was
put together by Nate Newmark

71836b0b-10e5-494e-89c4-6e65e13c487d-1
00:27:29.833 --> 00:27:34.264
from the University of Illinois
and Bill Hall from the

71836b0b-10e5-494e-89c4-6e65e13c487d-2
00:27:34.264 --> 00:27:38.936
University of Illinois and they
came up with a very 

71836b0b-10e5-494e-89c4-6e65e13c487d-3
00:27:38.936 --> 00:27:42.320
innovative design for offset and
shaking.

b44603fe-ce75-4df5-a024-9af86355f9a2-0
00:27:42.880 --> 00:27:47.760
So the pipeline offset design,
we didn't know where the Denali

b44603fe-ce75-4df5-a024-9af86355f9a2-1
00:27:47.760 --> 00:27:49.000
fault crossed it.

954e6a3b-f0d3-4e52-baad-81b7d0b16e97-0
00:27:49.000 --> 00:27:54.652
So it was projected and there
was a 600m wide corridor of

954e6a3b-f0d3-4e52-baad-81b7d0b16e97-1
00:27:54.652 --> 00:27:58.600
potential slip that was used in
the design.

70eedf97-bb87-4786-b0b5-d741fd290381-0
00:27:59.440 --> 00:28:04.665
The consultants recommended 30
feet to the pipeline company

70eedf97-bb87-4786-b0b5-d741fd290381-1
00:28:04.665 --> 00:28:09.891
based on other earthquakes on
other faults, and Alyeska, of

70eedf97-bb87-4786-b0b5-d741fd290381-2
00:28:09.891 --> 00:28:11.720
course, went smaller.

d5e7456d-8670-4a34-a37d-520dcb885738-0
00:28:12.000 --> 00:28:17.840
They designed for 20ft right
lateral and 5ft vertical.

7b850440-26a6-4481-bb5e-472f51bf810e-0
00:28:20.880 --> 00:28:27.080
Here is a slide showing again
the 2002 rupture in red.

6eca1010-11f6-41cf-a166-96eee44dc4c4-0
00:28:27.440 --> 00:28:32.400
The fault was projected from
here in 1973.

3b5ed7e5-135e-45d3-9975-44ee60ac670b-0
00:28:33.160 --> 00:28:38.320
This is the yellow zone, which
is the projected corridor.

192c5842-2dc6-4dab-a629-0263941a9b57-0
00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:43.674
These features were mapped in
1973, but they were not part of

192c5842-2dc6-4dab-a629-0263941a9b57-1
00:28:43.674 --> 00:28:44.680
the faulting.

8a60f672-f4b7-4568-86aa-c84d29d94321-0
00:28:45.680 --> 00:28:50.878
And you'll note that the
pipeline crosses the very

8a60f672-f4b7-4568-86aa-c84d29d94321-1
00:28:50.878 --> 00:28:55.160
southern end of this corridor
for design.

7d436b1b-5aa1-47da-a715-45bdfa1a3433-0
00:28:56.920 --> 00:29:00.963
And this is the pipeline
and this is where it crosses the

7d436b1b-5aa1-47da-a715-45bdfa1a3433-1
00:29:00.963 --> 00:29:01.760
Denali fault.

f3790e88-17bd-4ddd-bf12-fef524204d66-0
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:05.080
It was on supports coming into
the zone.

fa06562a-8175-4e01-8076-21d1f8d038bd-0
00:29:05.440 --> 00:29:10.594
These take heat from the pipe
and pump it out and cool the

fa06562a-8175-4e01-8076-21d1f8d038bd-1
00:29:10.594 --> 00:29:12.080
surface below it.

dd64061e-356b-49e9-bcf1-16673c94b2ec-0
00:29:12.800 --> 00:29:18.520
And then the pipeline itself
sits on these steel sliders.

150b3554-47bc-4344-bae4-9915d6e85d8e-0
00:29:19.800 --> 00:29:25.935
And these sliders are anchored
with teflon shoes and this

150b3554-47bc-4344-bae4-9915d6e85d8e-1
00:29:25.935 --> 00:29:32.916
allows the pipe to move back and
forth in a fault displacement or

150b3554-47bc-4344-bae4-9915d6e85d8e-2
00:29:32.916 --> 00:29:34.080
in shaking.

ce03ffd0-6f43-4c9c-a0d2-578913c9fd50-0
00:29:34.080 --> 00:29:40.492
And the fault rupture was here
at the South end of this zone of

ce03ffd0-6f43-4c9c-a0d2-578913c9fd50-1
00:29:40.492 --> 00:29:44.600
design. So the 2002 rupture. It
ruptured.

6e85640e-14f8-492c-9360-35a79de89d24-0
00:29:45.080 --> 00:29:49.738
The rupture occurred only 36m 
from the South end of the

6e85640e-14f8-492c-9360-35a79de89d24-1
00:29:49.738 --> 00:29:53.120
design corridor and all you can
say is "Phew!"

b7485940-95ef-49fe-8dcc-92ec357656fe-0
00:29:54.360 --> 00:30:00.088
Alyeska designed for 20ft or
6.1m of right-lateral and

b7485940-95ef-49fe-8dcc-92ec357656fe-1
00:30:00.088 --> 00:30:03.400
5ft or 1.5m of vertical.

48614c38-92f8-4a71-8b6d-24ca62cb4bc9-0
00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:09.490
And the 2002 rupture was 5.8m
of right-lateral and 1.6m

48614c38-92f8-4a71-8b6d-24ca62cb4bc9-1
00:30:09.490 --> 00:30:13.360
of vertical with the
north side up.

d78cf916-0bf7-450f-a6c5-23e7c687d4db-0
00:30:13.800 --> 00:30:15.840
This was just what the design
ordered.

96c85704-31ff-49c2-8ae8-6c42627101bb-0
00:30:18.720 --> 00:30:23.627
And what you can see here on the
left is the pipeline prior to

96c85704-31ff-49c2-8ae8-6c42627101bb-1
00:30:23.627 --> 00:30:28.223
the earthquake, the rupture, and
I'll point out that it was

96c85704-31ff-49c2-8ae8-6c42627101bb-2
00:30:28.223 --> 00:30:33.130
configured like this to allow
for compression as a strike-slip

96c85704-31ff-49c2-8ae8-6c42627101bb-3
00:30:33.130 --> 00:30:35.000
rupture went through it.

f6fa9363-a462-4e69-9527-b26eba987ef1-0
00:30:35.560 --> 00:30:39.879
And on the right-side you can
see the pipeline after the

f6fa9363-a462-4e69-9527-b26eba987ef1-1
00:30:39.879 --> 00:30:43.894
earthquake and the yellow line
is the pre-earthquake

f6fa9363-a462-4e69-9527-b26eba987ef1-2
00:30:43.894 --> 00:30:44.880
construction.

2f081759-fcb6-4bd6-a9fb-a2286053fc3c-0
00:30:45.160 --> 00:30:50.087
So you could see how the
pipeline was compressed and

2f081759-fcb6-4bd6-a9fb-a2286053fc3c-1
00:30:50.087 --> 00:30:50.520
bent.

546fd1b0-086d-40fc-9883-635c17f22a52-0
00:30:52.320 --> 00:30:57.811
So lessons learned, and I would
say maybe learned again, is that

546fd1b0-086d-40fc-9883-635c17f22a52-1
00:30:57.811 --> 00:31:03.133
you can engineer for large fault
displacement, but it requires

546fd1b0-086d-40fc-9883-635c17f22a52-2
00:31:03.133 --> 00:31:07.865
innovation, it requires
experience, especially when you

546fd1b0-086d-40fc-9883-635c17f22a52-3
00:31:07.865 --> 00:31:11.160
don't have data on the amount of
slip.

8527ded5-9829-4857-b9af-cee6791e0ea1-0
00:31:12.080 --> 00:31:14.800
It takes into account
uncertainty.

e8209e8b-d255-414f-8981-da12760e720a-0
00:31:14.800 --> 00:31:17.760
You have to account for
uncertainty in the design.

f256227d-70da-4ada-9ef9-6722ff5055aa-0
00:31:18.360 --> 00:31:19.960
And then there's serendipity.

59e5ef17-0a7c-49a0-96fe-91ab021890a1-0
00:31:20.480 --> 00:31:21.720
There were two things.

32b3dbcc-204d-48d1-ba80-88c8ad419a35-0
00:31:22.080 --> 00:31:26.311
If the rupture had occurred a
little further South, the pipe

32b3dbcc-204d-48d1-ba80-88c8ad419a35-1
00:31:26.311 --> 00:31:27.560
would have broken.

81f74237-70f7-448f-abed-6c7639fba24d-0
00:31:28.640 --> 00:31:33.302
If the 8.8m of maximum
slip occurred at the pipeline,

81f74237-70f7-448f-abed-6c7639fba24d-1
00:31:33.302 --> 00:31:35.400
the pipe would have broken.

c35904a6-5107-4ab5-857f-8feff88cb0a8-0
00:31:35.960 --> 00:31:41.800
In the end, there was no black
oil on white snow.

0adde9e4-49d7-476b-815e-45a73a7972f4-0
00:31:51.040 --> 00:31:52.200
Thank you, David.

9517d0ab-5d79-4404-b805-ba8758df0431-0
00:31:52.320 --> 00:31:54.880
I have so many ideas and
questions here.

01802572-d209-4f14-908e-cf4694020ab9-0
00:31:54.880 --> 00:31:56.120
I'm sure others do as well.

a66a07fb-3361-4447-8b7e-276ebdbf15bf-0
00:31:56.520 --> 00:31:59.000
Let's keep moving forward so we
can get to the questions.

978ead66-9033-4746-ba05-a9aa0cf4f1a5-0
00:31:59.000 --> 00:32:02.460
Next is Anne Wine and Sarah
McBride, both of the USGS and

978ead66-9033-4746-ba05-a9aa0cf4f1a5-1
00:32:02.460 --> 00:32:06.280
they're going to talk about the
Canterbury earthquake sequence.

b6092255-c0eb-4ced-b5f1-9dfba291defe-0
00:32:08.960 --> 00:32:12.200
Hello, One earthquake sequence.

8d8aab68-ba6b-454a-ad85-3178acd6923e-0
00:32:12.720 --> 00:32:14.640
The Canterbury earthquake
sequence.

cdf27c81-b3f2-48f5-b0c4-f9f9a806c2cf-0
00:32:15.320 --> 00:32:19.096
One opportunity to learn about
long-term communications of

cdf27c81-b3f2-48f5-b0c4-f9f9a806c2cf-1
00:32:19.096 --> 00:32:20.440
aftershock forecasts.

a0a5d100-3cd2-4af0-a158-4eb934ff589c-0
00:32:21.280 --> 00:32:25.760
I am Anne Wine with the Western
Geographic Science Center, USGS.

4c91ff03-bada-4c0f-a1b5-31a498433a20-0
00:32:26.320 --> 00:32:30.240
This research is with Sarah
McBride in the Earthquake

4c91ff03-bada-4c0f-a1b5-31a498433a20-1
00:32:30.240 --> 00:32:34.741
Science Center et al.,
New Zealand colleagues at GNS

4c91ff03-bada-4c0f-a1b5-31a498433a20-2
00:32:34.741 --> 00:32:36.920
Science and Massey University.

b0fb1376-0757-48f3-9ee3-4dcb7f49c8e3-0
00:32:40.760 --> 00:32:44.362
The Canterbury earthquake
sequence in Alterra, New

b0fb1376-0757-48f3-9ee3-4dcb7f49c8e3-1
00:32:44.362 --> 00:32:48.600
Zealand, initiated September 4,
2010, the green star on the map.

6eb4d0b7-90cd-4265-a333-2d80c12e094b-0
00:32:49.480 --> 00:32:52.600
The activity of the sequence
made for a bumpy road

b1945889-c676-4d02-b7bc-e967000c9d5f-0
00:32:52.600 --> 00:32:53.520
to recovery.

9b63779c-bc42-4827-94be-deeec70fd7b3-0
00:32:54.320 --> 00:32:58.345
The number of earthquakes slowed
down on the pink part of the

9b63779c-bc42-4827-94be-deeec70fd7b3-1
00:32:58.345 --> 00:33:02.370
sequence and recovery was able
to take hold, a year and a half

9b63779c-bc42-4827-94be-deeec70fd7b3-2
00:33:02.370 --> 00:33:02.760
later.

5223f18b-9427-4d0d-a0bd-a6c89fcff822-0
00:33:04.600 --> 00:33:08.368
The earthquake sequence is
unfortunately an example of an

5223f18b-9427-4d0d-a0bd-a6c89fcff822-1
00:33:08.368 --> 00:33:12.396
aftershock causing more damage
than the mainshock due to its

5223f18b-9427-4d0d-a0bd-a6c89fcff822-2
00:33:12.396 --> 00:33:15.840
urban location and energy
directed towards the city.

ebacd3c2-d347-447e-a0a8-d2849de40ccc-0
00:33:16.840 --> 00:33:21.447
On February 22nd, 2011, the
shaken city of Christchurch

ebacd3c2-d347-447e-a0a8-d2849de40ccc-1
00:33:21.447 --> 00:33:24.080
exhibited a large cloud of dust.

67468388-7e5d-41e9-a9db-ef3c2c6c84aa-0
00:33:25.000 --> 00:33:28.559
This damaging and fatal
aftershock occurred more than

67468388-7e5d-41e9-a9db-ef3c2c6c84aa-1
00:33:28.559 --> 00:33:30.800
5 months after the mainshock.

f6513a25-4172-44ab-b3f1-ca97c68dc96d-0
00:33:33.760 --> 00:33:36.695
Prior to the February
Christchurch aftershock,

f6513a25-4172-44ab-b3f1-ca97c68dc96d-1
00:33:36.695 --> 00:33:40.255
thousands of aftershocks were
expected and forecasted by

f6513a25-4172-44ab-b3f1-ca97c68dc96d-2
00:33:40.255 --> 00:33:44.253
GNS Science, but it was hard
to get people's attention when

f6513a25-4172-44ab-b3f1-ca97c68dc96d-3
00:33:44.253 --> 00:33:48.312
they had survived a magnitude 7
earthquake during the night in a

f6513a25-4172-44ab-b3f1-ca97c68dc96d-4
00:33:48.312 --> 00:33:49.000
rural area,

5a8ebd5e-be24-4cf8-afb0-b2164dd3be7c-0
00:33:49.400 --> 00:33:53.880
remarkably well after the fatal
Christchurch earthquake.

18113ef8-dbb7-471e-93c5-db8773218439-0
00:33:53.880 --> 00:33:55.800
The forecast gained more
traction.

a4dcc2bc-fa17-4aa8-a8a8-460fb40bccbb-0
00:33:56.520 --> 00:34:00.449
For example, in May 2011, GNS
scientists forecasted that a

a4dcc2bc-fa17-4aa8-a8a8-460fb40bccbb-1
00:34:00.449 --> 00:34:04.245
magnitude 5 aftershock would
almost certainly occur, and

a4dcc2bc-fa17-4aa8-a8a8-460fb40bccbb-2
00:34:04.245 --> 00:34:08.241
there was a 1-3 chance
of a magnitude 6 aftershock

a4dcc2bc-fa17-4aa8-a8a8-460fb40bccbb-3
00:34:08.241 --> 00:34:09.640
within the next year.

97702fce-283a-42ca-be6c-ce2e2057c2cd-0
00:34:10.640 --> 00:34:13.557
You can see from the blue and
pink sequences that both of

97702fce-283a-42ca-be6c-ce2e2057c2cd-1
00:34:13.557 --> 00:34:15.520
those earthquakes did occur that
year.

05ac58ac-203a-4c62-b97f-d2a23e3a3fdd-0
00:34:16.680 --> 00:34:20.211
Residents were literally shaken
up and aftershocks were the

05ac58ac-203a-4c62-b97f-d2a23e3a3fdd-1
00:34:20.211 --> 00:34:21.800
number one cause of stress.

5fdd75a3-9094-413b-93b6-25dc96d1cad2-0
00:34:23.320 --> 00:34:28.029
Finally, the pink sequence was
leveling off. Was the damaging

5fdd75a3-9094-413b-93b6-25dc96d1cad2-1
00:34:28.029 --> 00:34:32.353
effects of the Canterbury
earthquake sequence over four

5fdd75a3-9094-413b-93b6-25dc96d1cad2-2
00:34:32.353 --> 00:34:33.279
years later.

3cdf18b3-4813-4ee0-ac40-46c125f7a543-0
00:34:33.320 --> 00:34:37.285
Five years into the sequence,
there was still about a 50% or

3cdf18b3-4813-4ee0-ac40-46c125f7a543-1
00:34:37.285 --> 00:34:41.315
1-2 chance of a magnitude
5 aftershock within the next

3cdf18b3-4813-4ee0-ac40-46c125f7a543-2
00:34:41.315 --> 00:34:41.640
year.

1ad9fd5d-2912-4a20-987b-819ed6f404a3-0
00:34:42.640 --> 00:34:45.120
Would you be surprised if such
an earthquake occurred?

a674c549-3746-4b9f-b598-038dff8f12a0-0
00:34:45.440 --> 00:34:47.440
And would you be prepared for
it?

d5353ef1-43a7-4854-9f7d-0597c0063d3a-0
00:34:50.840 --> 00:34:55.027
The 50% chance magnitude 5
earthquake did indeed occur on

d5353ef1-43a7-4854-9f7d-0597c0063d3a-1
00:34:55.027 --> 00:34:56.760
Valentine's Day in 2016.

6b8054ab-92d6-488d-a16a-5ee9abd70e43-0
00:34:57.800 --> 00:35:00.720
This time, dust rose up from the
sun cliffs.

b5142cf0-09d8-4b17-9338-5335140a2ef8-0
00:35:01.680 --> 00:35:04.930
By this time, people felt safer
because they felt fewer

b5142cf0-09d8-4b17-9338-5335140a2ef8-1
00:35:04.930 --> 00:35:08.471
earthquakes and they figured
building risks had been removed

b5142cf0-09d8-4b17-9338-5335140a2ef8-2
00:35:08.471 --> 00:35:09.400
or strengthened.

373b9c3b-5bd3-48f1-bbcf-7261f2ce8522-0
00:35:10.720 --> 00:35:13.996
However, they were little aware of
the residual risks of Cliff

373b9c3b-5bd3-48f1-bbcf-7261f2ce8522-1
00:35:13.996 --> 00:35:14.480
collapse.

165b2b89-8b05-4337-aebd-fb729031e9ce-0
00:35:15.520 --> 00:35:17.520
Also, the population had
changed.

8cd3ee5f-0587-4431-aa3f-4a0fe5a147e5-0
00:35:18.280 --> 00:35:21.810
Residents had been displaced
from red zones and people new to

8cd3ee5f-0587-4431-aa3f-4a0fe5a147e5-1
00:35:21.810 --> 00:35:25.341
the city had arrived who had not
lived through the Canterbury

8cd3ee5f-0587-4431-aa3f-4a0fe5a147e5-2
00:35:25.341 --> 00:35:26.480
earthquake sequence.

9d0335a7-1440-421a-a5f3-bc860702faab-0
00:35:27.520 --> 00:35:31.093
So the population had diverged
on earthquake knowledge and

9d0335a7-1440-421a-a5f3-bc860702faab-1
00:35:31.093 --> 00:35:31.760
experience.

b55e50d8-4cec-4976-b56f-d1c8ff0b7829-0
00:35:34.800 --> 00:35:39.480
This brings me to our study that
followed an earlier one in 2013.

b55585a6-84c2-465d-bf34-60aa9ce34ded-0
00:35:40.440 --> 00:35:44.593
Our research question was to
understand the effects of time,

b55585a6-84c2-465d-bf34-60aa9ce34ded-1
00:35:44.593 --> 00:35:48.133
in other words, during an
earthquake sequence, what

b55585a6-84c2-465d-bf34-60aa9ce34ded-2
00:35:48.133 --> 00:35:52.423
aftershock forecast information
and communication needs can be

b55585a6-84c2-465d-bf34-60aa9ce34ded-3
00:35:52.423 --> 00:35:56.576
revealed from the investigation
of long-term experiences, in

b55585a6-84c2-465d-bf34-60aa9ce34ded-4
00:35:56.576 --> 00:35:58.960
this case six years of
experience.

8d3e0a17-7597-4eef-af20-eeaaecd52217-0
00:35:59.880 --> 00:36:03.672
At the time there was very
little study of longitudinal

8d3e0a17-7597-4eef-af20-eeaaecd52217-1
00:36:03.672 --> 00:36:07.600
risk communication, just some
related to volcanic unrest.

d47ef340-a4ee-41d0-97be-93574c8c15b1-0
00:36:09.240 --> 00:36:13.231
We held four workshops with 21
participants in public health

d47ef340-a4ee-41d0-97be-93574c8c15b1-1
00:36:13.231 --> 00:36:17.222
and Emergency Management roles
and interested members of the

d47ef340-a4ee-41d0-97be-93574c8c15b1-2
00:36:17.222 --> 00:36:17.680
public.

28fa7270-2ccd-4bb7-9c99-fda684f6de0d-0
00:36:18.760 --> 00:36:22.473
We learned about surprise or not
of the Valentine's Day

28fa7270-2ccd-4bb7-9c99-fda684f6de0d-1
00:36:22.473 --> 00:36:25.988
earthquake, how time dynamics
affected behavior and

28fa7270-2ccd-4bb7-9c99-fda684f6de0d-2
00:36:25.988 --> 00:36:29.769
preparedness, trust in the
science agency, knowledge and

28fa7270-2ccd-4bb7-9c99-fda684f6de0d-3
00:36:29.769 --> 00:36:33.284
information needs, risk,
perceptions and living with

28fa7270-2ccd-4bb7-9c99-fda684f6de0d-4
00:36:33.284 --> 00:36:34.080
uncertainty.

b4e138f0-ecea-481a-b1a4-bed6f7a92a32-0
00:36:35.480 --> 00:36:39.637
And thirdly, we receive feedback
on the utility of aftershock

b4e138f0-ecea-481a-b1a4-bed6f7a92a32-1
00:36:39.637 --> 00:36:43.661
forecast scenarios, as in the
possibilities of the sequence

b4e138f0-ecea-481a-b1a4-bed6f7a92a32-2
00:36:43.661 --> 00:36:47.014
slowing down, of a bumpy
recovery like Canterbury

b4e138f0-ecea-481a-b1a4-bed6f7a92a32-3
00:36:47.014 --> 00:36:50.971
earthquake sequence, and of the
worst to come with another

b4e138f0-ecea-481a-b1a4-bed6f7a92a32-4
00:36:50.971 --> 00:36:53.520
earthquake of similar or larger
size.

4562719b-b12e-4e21-82ec-0cbd9532106b-0
00:36:54.280 --> 00:36:59.794
The case of the 2023 Turkey
earthquake sequence. We gathered

4562719b-b12e-4e21-82ec-0cbd9532106b-1
00:36:59.794 --> 00:37:05.400
three types of surprise about
the Valentine's Day earthquake.

d2956015-348f-44ca-8568-09cf0eb3bb5c-0
00:37:06.000 --> 00:37:09.056
There were people who had heard
and retained the concept of an

d2956015-348f-44ca-8568-09cf0eb3bb5c-1
00:37:09.056 --> 00:37:11.240
earthquake sequence with spikes
of activity.

3e410803-c3f5-4039-b236-0449d0a1043c-0
00:37:12.000 --> 00:37:15.122
They claimed to not be surprised
by the Valentine's Day

3e410803-c3f5-4039-b236-0449d0a1043c-1
00:37:15.122 --> 00:37:18.301
aftershock except for the
uncertainty of the exact time,

3e410803-c3f5-4039-b236-0449d0a1043c-2
00:37:18.301 --> 00:37:19.640
location and size of it.

dc4fe40f-303e-414e-96d1-b94570f9b891-0
00:37:21.080 --> 00:37:24.214
An outcome of the lack of
surprise was associated with

dc4fe40f-303e-414e-96d1-b94570f9b891-1
00:37:24.214 --> 00:37:27.633
underestimating communication
needs and their public health

dc4fe40f-303e-414e-96d1-b94570f9b891-2
00:37:27.633 --> 00:37:29.400
and Emergency Management roles.

5d4fde9e-ab9e-4ddd-b419-d28eb10e4d49-0
00:37:30.600 --> 00:37:34.468
Consequently, the amplification
of the DNS science message did

5d4fde9e-ab9e-4ddd-b419-d28eb10e4d49-1
00:37:34.468 --> 00:37:38.275
not happen through the networks
and affected populations were

5d4fde9e-ab9e-4ddd-b419-d28eb10e4d49-2
00:37:38.275 --> 00:37:42.021
alerted by the media report of
cliff collapse and supporting

5d4fde9e-ab9e-4ddd-b419-d28eb10e4d49-3
00:37:42.021 --> 00:37:44.600
each other and making sense of
the event.

2bc7dc39-1291-4270-a679-8db7118bb7ee-0
00:37:44.600 --> 00:37:49.373
Within a social media platform,
there were people who had become

2bc7dc39-1291-4270-a679-8db7118bb7ee-1
00:37:49.373 --> 00:37:53.558
less attentive to earthquake
risks and had moved on with

2bc7dc39-1291-4270-a679-8db7118bb7ee-2
00:37:53.558 --> 00:37:54.439
their lives.

04762d7d-0c43-4d2f-a184-1520f22b69ad-0
00:37:55.200 --> 00:37:59.150
This is known as psychological
adaptation and you can relate to

04762d7d-0c43-4d2f-a184-1520f22b69ad-1
00:37:59.150 --> 00:38:02.360
it from your multi-year
experience of the pandemic.

98b8654b-cb29-43aa-b936-d7a6204c3810-0
00:38:03.960 --> 00:38:07.055
This group acknowledged that
they had set themselves up for

98b8654b-cb29-43aa-b936-d7a6204c3810-1
00:38:07.055 --> 00:38:07.520
surprise.

82074107-eb2f-4a40-a232-c6f1550117a7-0
00:38:09.160 --> 00:38:12.932
The third situation identified
was people new to the area and

82074107-eb2f-4a40-a232-c6f1550117a7-1
00:38:12.932 --> 00:38:16.400
an experience with earthquakes
and earthquake sequences.

bf6138aa-3eb5-4c35-802b-54977761fb9c-0
00:38:16.680 --> 00:38:19.120
They were surprised, scared,
upset.

782e13ed-7186-4d71-8498-57e60910aa9f-0
00:38:20.520 --> 00:38:24.470
The combination of moving on
with lives and new people to the

782e13ed-7186-4d71-8498-57e60910aa9f-1
00:38:24.470 --> 00:38:28.358
area was sort of associated with
a lapse in preparedness or

782e13ed-7186-4d71-8498-57e60910aa9f-2
00:38:28.358 --> 00:38:29.760
atrophy and vigilance.

3223580e-71d8-4799-be0f-53c54698b7cb-0
00:38:30.720 --> 00:38:34.840
An example was that hospital
response procedures that were a

3223580e-71d8-4799-be0f-53c54698b7cb-1
00:38:34.840 --> 00:38:38.960
well-oiled machine a few years
earlier were not implemented.

84244df1-e106-4555-8429-af639ab5ee0b-0
00:38:43.760 --> 00:38:47.133
Workshop participants recognized
the need then to sustain the

84244df1-e106-4555-8429-af639ab5ee0b-1
00:38:47.133 --> 00:38:50.290
coordination of earthquake
communication across roles and

84244df1-e106-4555-8429-af639ab5ee0b-2
00:38:50.290 --> 00:38:53.120
down the line to divergent and
diverse populations.

dec2f223-50f8-4ea5-88a2-a963461aa3d8-0
00:38:54.320 --> 00:38:58.347
When the rate of earthquakes and
the environmental queue slowed

dec2f223-50f8-4ea5-88a2-a963461aa3d8-1
00:38:58.347 --> 00:39:02.374
down, they wanted to look to the
science agency to periodically

dec2f223-50f8-4ea5-88a2-a963461aa3d8-2
00:39:02.374 --> 00:39:05.080
prompt them to exercise and stay
prepared.

1aab9805-f47d-4131-9947-67dc7332e053-0
00:39:06.320 --> 00:39:09.554
This assumes that the lead
agency has established a main

1aab9805-f47d-4131-9947-67dc7332e053-1
00:39:09.554 --> 00:39:11.200
trust with diverse audiences.

6148e1a5-df1a-4291-a853-727b0ba01235-0
00:39:11.960 --> 00:39:15.978
Certainly there was evidence
among the participants that

6148e1a5-df1a-4291-a853-727b0ba01235-1
00:39:15.978 --> 00:39:20.138
trust had been gained and their
words they had watched the

6148e1a5-df1a-4291-a853-727b0ba01235-2
00:39:20.138 --> 00:39:23.240
forecast come true earlier in
the sequence.

7c1758f1-f605-4a61-a058-b496bbf5f1bc-0
00:39:24.680 --> 00:39:27.273
It was also clear that five
years later people were not

7c1758f1-f605-4a61-a058-b496bbf5f1bc-1
00:39:27.273 --> 00:39:29.589
following the forecast or
checking them after the

7c1758f1-f605-4a61-a058-b496bbf5f1bc-2
00:39:29.589 --> 00:39:30.840
Valentine's Day earthquake.

16a487cd-b77b-4931-a10d-383736ead13d-0
00:39:31.360 --> 00:39:35.113
What was apparent that the
spikes of earthquake sequence

16a487cd-b77b-4931-a10d-383736ead13d-1
00:39:35.113 --> 00:39:39.460
behavior is an enduring concept
that reduced the surprise factor

16a487cd-b77b-4931-a10d-383736ead13d-2
00:39:39.460 --> 00:39:43.345
and helped make sense of the
damaging aftershock for those

16a487cd-b77b-4931-a10d-383736ead13d-3
00:39:43.345 --> 00:39:47.230
learning about earthquake
sequence behavior for the first

16a487cd-b77b-4931-a10d-383736ead13d-4
00:39:47.230 --> 00:39:47.560
time.

c913e6d0-98d3-4470-8d9e-00641cc4ff55-0
00:39:49.000 --> 00:39:52.319
The other point to note is that
some participants were seeking

c913e6d0-98d3-4470-8d9e-00641cc4ff55-1
00:39:52.319 --> 00:39:55.427
deeper and broader information
about earthquake hazards as

c913e6d0-98d3-4470-8d9e-00641cc4ff55-2
00:39:55.427 --> 00:39:58.800
their risk perception shifted to
larger sources of earthquakes.

1244367c-5d7f-4d33-91d3-15acefd4719e-0
00:40:00.560 --> 00:40:04.023
We received feedback that
suggested more appealing and

1244367c-5d7f-4d33-91d3-15acefd4719e-1
00:40:04.023 --> 00:40:06.920
useful aftershock scenarios
could be created.

32c3253e-ec39-4445-a630-2d3535174ad9-0
00:40:07.720 --> 00:40:12.548
Participants largely endorsed three
scenarios and to include a worst

32c3253e-ec39-4445-a630-2d3535174ad9-1
00:40:12.548 --> 00:40:12.920
case.

426fc327-4a31-4f82-a076-b5a39d15ff1d-0
00:40:13.480 --> 00:40:16.854
They wanted to know the science
underpinning the three

426fc327-4a31-4f82-a076-b5a39d15ff1d-1
00:40:16.854 --> 00:40:20.842
possibilities of a slowing rate
of earthquakes, a bumpy recovery

426fc327-4a31-4f82-a076-b5a39d15ff1d-2
00:40:20.842 --> 00:40:22.559
and the worst still to come.

8341adde-e591-44aa-b844-8041c71748fa-0
00:40:23.680 --> 00:40:26.760
Further, they endorse
communicating the uncertainties.

78e56caf-34e9-454e-b09e-8b017d7c3772-0
00:40:28.040 --> 00:40:32.156
However, to be useful they need
more information about the

78e56caf-34e9-454e-b09e-8b017d7c3772-1
00:40:32.156 --> 00:40:36.342
impacts, not unlike the recent
wave of impact based weather

78e56caf-34e9-454e-b09e-8b017d7c3772-2
00:40:36.342 --> 00:40:37.040
forecasts.

313e3db3-5598-4826-94a6-9eb4eff9a67c-0
00:40:38.320 --> 00:40:42.204
So thinking ahead on
collaborations for impact based

313e3db3-5598-4826-94a6-9eb4eff9a67c-1
00:40:42.204 --> 00:40:46.601
aftershock forecast, we can
involve people in this workshop.

313e3db3-5598-4826-94a6-9eb4eff9a67c-2
00:40:46.601 --> 00:40:50.705
Scenarios like HayWire go
through the translation of an

313e3db3-5598-4826-94a6-9eb4eff9a67c-3
00:40:50.705 --> 00:40:55.102
earthquake sequence and to
engineering and societal impacts

313e3db3-5598-4826-94a6-9eb4eff9a67c-4
00:40:55.102 --> 00:40:58.840
to help build that capacity and
the relationships.

80133453-4dff-4de4-9ffb-5c4e0279de61-0
00:41:00.760 --> 00:41:05.041
One thing that was striking
about the feedback on

80133453-4dff-4de4-9ffb-5c4e0279de61-1
00:41:05.041 --> 00:41:09.478
aftershock scenarios was the
alignment with McKinsey &

80133453-4dff-4de4-9ffb-5c4e0279de61-2
00:41:09.478 --> 00:41:14.538
Company pandemic scenarios, and
we could think about alternative

80133453-4dff-4de4-9ffb-5c4e0279de61-3
00:41:14.538 --> 00:41:18.819
presentations like this one. In
conclusion one earthquake

80133453-4dff-4de4-9ffb-5c4e0279de61-4
00:41:18.819 --> 00:41:19.519
sequence,

b688d353-f911-44f6-963a-9d6a2a6518ba-0
00:41:19.760 --> 00:41:23.166
one opportunity to learn about
long-term communication of

b688d353-f911-44f6-963a-9d6a2a6518ba-1
00:41:23.166 --> 00:41:24.400
aftershock forecasts.

2eea9a42-e8a1-4bab-b415-4eba456c34c9-0
00:41:25.480 --> 00:41:29.709
We explored surprise when the
possible happens and associated

2eea9a42-e8a1-4bab-b415-4eba456c34c9-1
00:41:29.709 --> 00:41:34.076
Behavior, other time dynamics
and strategies for preparing for

2eea9a42-e8a1-4bab-b415-4eba456c34c9-2
00:41:34.076 --> 00:41:37.760
and communicating about
aftershocks in the long-term.

3d45355b-5c78-4088-b5ef-1832cf6c5128-0
00:41:38.920 --> 00:41:41.888
There were very few studies on
long-term hazard and risk

3d45355b-5c78-4088-b5ef-1832cf6c5128-1
00:41:41.888 --> 00:41:44.440
communication when we started
the study in 2016.

2fb60632-c1df-42de-832c-872c45dba2e3-0
00:41:45.680 --> 00:41:49.653
The pandemic has stimulated a
lot more research and there are

2fb60632-c1df-42de-832c-872c45dba2e3-1
00:41:49.653 --> 00:41:53.756
parallels that we can continue
to use to reinforce our findings

2fb60632-c1df-42de-832c-872c45dba2e3-2
00:41:53.756 --> 00:41:56.320
and I thank you all for your
attention.

9a1e28cc-56c2-4851-b3b0-d0a4b31612a2-0
00:42:06.420 --> 00:42:06.860
Thank you.

68e7043b-92cd-4c71-9c19-c59368379034-0
00:42:07.620 --> 00:42:08.340
Great talk.

d4c2a116-2726-4c9d-bd81-ce76668d56e5-0
00:42:11.380 --> 00:42:17.299
The Mendocino Junction area with
present the 2022 Ferndale

d4c2a116-2726-4c9d-bd81-ce76668d56e5-1
00:42:17.299 --> 00:42:22.316
earthquake and how it
activated the subduction

d4c2a116-2726-4c9d-bd81-ce76668d56e5-2
00:42:22.316 --> 00:42:23.319
interface.

78210225-7b54-4d3d-b5a1-f3e44bd8eae1-0
00:42:27.680 --> 00:42:30.726
The Mendocino Triple Junction in
Northern California is one of

78210225-7b54-4d3d-b5a1-f3e44bd8eae1-1
00:42:30.726 --> 00:42:33.000
the most seismically active
regions in the U.S.

574ebd8d-2946-4a82-9a06-f32da5e74785-0
00:42:33.880 --> 00:42:37.915
So this is the story of how the
fault systems in the subduction

574ebd8d-2946-4a82-9a06-f32da5e74785-1
00:42:37.915 --> 00:42:41.698
zone off the Mendocino Triple
Junction are intertwined, how

574ebd8d-2946-4a82-9a06-f32da5e74785-2
00:42:41.698 --> 00:42:45.229
the intraslab 2022 magnitude
6.4 Ferndale earthquake

574ebd8d-2946-4a82-9a06-f32da5e74785-3
00:42:45.229 --> 00:42:48.760
triggered post seismic slip on
the seduction interface.

3bc6a632-a91f-4df0-9da4-6ef80181d908-0
00:42:49.160 --> 00:42:52.722
And I'd like to thank all my
co-authors from various parts of

3bc6a632-a91f-4df0-9da4-6ef80181d908-1
00:42:52.722 --> 00:42:53.240
the USGS.

ac2ddb25-909f-4985-b07b-bf72665e8df0-0
00:42:59.360 --> 00:43:01.240
First, let me start with the
punchline.

279c766b-2841-40db-a3ef-f8588a46b19d-0
00:43:01.440 --> 00:43:04.680
This is a really weird and also
important earthquake.

e99219d1-ac9b-4a6e-8f4a-4d59a519f9cc-0
00:43:05.760 --> 00:43:09.324
This earthquake is weird because
it doesn't fit in the standard

e99219d1-ac9b-4a6e-8f4a-4d59a519f9cc-1
00:43:09.324 --> 00:43:11.720
categories of subduction zone
earthquakes.

a3c27e47-efcd-44b3-9420-ea3a9ece3831-0
00:43:11.720 --> 00:43:13.560
It's not an intermediate depth
earthquake.

9a3f7107-104f-400f-b3ce-b49cb74f11c8-0
00:43:13.840 --> 00:43:15.400
It's not an outer rise
earthquake.

be10fbc4-3b76-4e0d-aea5-7a1886287ca9-0
00:43:15.960 --> 00:43:17.280
It's not, at least initially,

c3f10af3-08cd-46ce-8067-c14de2fd4fc6-0
00:43:17.280 --> 00:43:20.411
it's not an interplate thrust
earthquake, it's a strike-slip

c3f10af3-08cd-46ce-8067-c14de2fd4fc6-1
00:43:20.411 --> 00:43:23.440
earthquake within the shallow
part of the subducting slab.

03de4b4b-34d6-4a04-ab56-3b027ae8e0c7-0
00:43:24.880 --> 00:43:28.157
It's also an important
earthquake because after this

03de4b4b-34d6-4a04-ab56-3b027ae8e0c7-1
00:43:28.157 --> 00:43:31.681
event occurs, we see post
seismic slip on the subduction

03de4b4b-34d6-4a04-ab56-3b027ae8e0c7-2
00:43:31.681 --> 00:43:34.897
interface showing this
connection between the fault

03de4b4b-34d6-4a04-ab56-3b027ae8e0c7-3
00:43:34.897 --> 00:43:38.360
systems within the slab and on
the seduction interface.

2b7717b3-070f-4033-8e6e-e985a2f0b59a-0
00:43:39.000 --> 00:43:41.650
So we usually consider these
different categories of

2b7717b3-070f-4033-8e6e-e985a2f0b59a-1
00:43:41.650 --> 00:43:42.800
earthquakes separately.

971c6c19-b3b8-4d9a-8c8f-2ae034eccdf5-0
00:43:43.400 --> 00:43:46.880
But this earthquake demonstrates
that they are sometimes

971c6c19-b3b8-4d9a-8c8f-2ae034eccdf5-1
00:43:46.880 --> 00:43:50.483
connected, and that's important
because this megathrust is

971c6c19-b3b8-4d9a-8c8f-2ae034eccdf5-2
00:43:50.483 --> 00:43:53.720
capable of generating magnitude
9 class earthquakes.

9e278590-9cb5-4007-88f7-71ba6defdbc3-0
00:43:53.960 --> 00:43:57.740
So we really need to consider
the possibility that slip within

9e278590-9cb5-4007-88f7-71ba6defdbc3-1
00:43:57.740 --> 00:44:00.560
the slab might lead to slip on
the megathrust,

020709eb-ef04-4727-b570-f62d7addf2a7-0
00:44:01.200 --> 00:44:04.386
and going along with the session
topic, this is the critical

020709eb-ef04-4727-b570-f62d7addf2a7-1
00:44:04.386 --> 00:44:06.320
lesson learned from this
earthquake.

355e8354-84cc-434d-9371-c996b6e8a9d4-0
00:44:08.440 --> 00:44:12.080
Mendocino Triple Junction is very
active and in fact has a lot of

355e8354-84cc-434d-9371-c996b6e8a9d4-1
00:44:12.080 --> 00:44:14.880
complex earthquakes that rupture
multiple faults.

19b59a08-df85-4bfb-ad3a-924d2687418e-0
00:44:14.920 --> 00:44:19.064
The most recent example of this
before the Ferndale earthquake

19b59a08-df85-4bfb-ad3a-924d2687418e-1
00:44:19.064 --> 00:44:23.208
occurred just one year earlier
the 2021 Petrolia earthquake

19b59a08-df85-4bfb-ad3a-924d2687418e-2
00:44:23.208 --> 00:44:23.800
sequence.

b20a6e20-ba8d-4bc5-9379-92da95961bc5-0
00:44:24.120 --> 00:44:28.240
This sequence initiated with a
magnitude 6.1 right-lateral

b20a6e20-ba8d-4bc5-9379-92da95961bc5-1
00:44:28.240 --> 00:44:32.500
strike-slip earthquake offshore
along the Mendocino Transform

b20a6e20-ba8d-4bc5-9379-92da95961bc5-2
00:44:32.500 --> 00:44:32.920
fault.

a0bd39a1-5372-47b8-ad05-f5f05b1e12b8-0
00:44:32.920 --> 00:44:34.120
This is the pink mechanism.

9be1a7e1-40cb-48a1-9f27-11cccc20c2d4-0
00:44:34.160 --> 00:44:37.309
11 seconds later it triggered a
left-lateral strike-slip

9be1a7e1-40cb-48a1-9f27-11cccc20c2d4-1
00:44:37.309 --> 00:44:40.680
earthquake within the mantle of
the selecting gorgeous slab.

11d31ac9-d079-4ab3-af0b-8b130c1dd582-0
00:44:40.680 --> 00:44:41.960
That's the purple mechanism.

284fee29-e140-4f13-98fb-bece4057a447-0
00:44:42.560 --> 00:44:47.019
And now one year later, an
earthquake occurred about 20km

284fee29-e140-4f13-98fb-bece4057a447-1
00:44:47.019 --> 00:44:51.400
to the northwest of
the onshore 2021 event.

e0efaca7-90d4-4cde-8383-a24578b7a8fc-0
00:44:51.400 --> 00:44:55.188
That's this teal mechanism, the
the magnitude 6.4 Ferndale

e0efaca7-90d4-4cde-8383-a24578b7a8fc-1
00:44:55.188 --> 00:44:55.920
earthquake, 

aaab2fa8-79ae-478f-a3dc-04ef07f37acd-0
00:44:56.000 --> 00:44:57.640
that is the focus of this talk.

7190d923-a640-45b1-928d-a1239d0a3523-0
00:44:59.880 --> 00:45:01.560
So I'm going to start by looking
at 

b5a2f095-c409-4a71-8e1f-1eed847df5f1-0
00:45:01.560 --> 00:45:04.240
the seismicity of the magnitude
6.4.

0673e45a-a6d2-410c-95e0-a55a706923d7-0
00:45:04.560 --> 00:45:06.840
We're going to use a waveform
template based approach.

836b248f-2a28-4b6b-ab5a-68f0fa2ddb31-0
00:45:06.840 --> 00:45:10.273
We start using 309 routinely
catalogued earthquakes from the

836b248f-2a28-4b6b-ab5a-68f0fa2ddb31-1
00:45:10.273 --> 00:45:13.707
Northern California Seismic
Network catalogue spanning about

836b248f-2a28-4b6b-ab5a-68f0fa2ddb31-2
00:45:13.707 --> 00:45:16.239
a month starting just before the
earthquake.

1a16540e-2c8b-4e48-8aeb-dc68544e9865-0
00:45:17.280 --> 00:45:21.236
From these we are able to detect
and relocate more than 7,800

1a16540e-2c8b-4e48-8aeb-dc68544e9865-1
00:45:21.236 --> 00:45:22.080
total events.

361fe85f-4163-4834-b99a-a547a17e4144-0
00:45:22.280 --> 00:45:25.599
We relocate these using hypoDD
and we also use the cross

361fe85f-4163-4834-b99a-a547a17e4144-1
00:45:25.599 --> 00:45:29.320
correlation measurements to help
constrain the focal mechanisms.

a6a4dc93-25dc-4337-8e1a-4f9f6c46574d-0
00:45:30.480 --> 00:45:32.600
So here's a look at this
earthquake sequence.

dd2b726f-f136-42ce-a7c2-bee0c7ea3f05-0
00:45:32.640 --> 00:45:36.680
This is the magnitude 6.4 
mainshock focal mechanism.

5202d23e-20f6-4c39-a517-f84dbaf0a30c-0
00:45:36.680 --> 00:45:41.124
It shows the strike-slip left-
lateral motion striking toward

5202d23e-20f6-4c39-a517-f84dbaf0a30c-1
00:45:41.124 --> 00:45:42.800
the east northeast.

4bfd8483-aaa5-4e6f-a05b-9c668d1b77c4-0
00:45:42.800 --> 00:45:46.431
Here you can see the zone of
aftershocks denoting this

4bfd8483-aaa5-4e6f-a05b-9c668d1b77c4-1
00:45:46.431 --> 00:45:46.960
rupture.

891aea78-84ce-4525-a156-f06813d47334-0
00:45:47.760 --> 00:45:51.079
In fact, these left-lateral
strike-slip faults within the

891aea78-84ce-4525-a156-f06813d47334-1
00:45:51.079 --> 00:45:54.627
Gorda slab are well known and
they're thought to be spreading

891aea78-84ce-4525-a156-f06813d47334-2
00:45:54.627 --> 00:45:58.233
center normal faults that have
been rotated and reactivated in

891aea78-84ce-4525-a156-f06813d47334-3
00:45:58.233 --> 00:46:01.896
a left-lateral strike-slip sense
and these help accommodate the

891aea78-84ce-4525-a156-f06813d47334-4
00:46:01.896 --> 00:46:05.273
compression the north-south
compression experienced by the

891aea78-84ce-4525-a156-f06813d47334-5
00:46:05.273 --> 00:46:05.960
Gorda slab.

642942e2-ec26-468d-8113-29ed05fb970f-0
00:46:10.640 --> 00:46:14.560
So we see a pretty complex
distribution of aftershocks.

77181771-19ff-41cf-adc6-dd52314eea48-0
00:46:14.560 --> 00:46:19.245
We do see this main alignment of
events along this main left-

77181771-19ff-41cf-adc6-dd52314eea48-1
00:46:19.245 --> 00:46:24.007
lateral strike-slip fault, but
we also see subsidiary faults,

77181771-19ff-41cf-adc6-dd52314eea48-2
00:46:24.007 --> 00:46:28.308
some of these apparently
striking nearly northward that

77181771-19ff-41cf-adc6-dd52314eea48-3
00:46:28.308 --> 00:46:32.840
also seem to have left-lateral
strike-slip motion on them.

52d444eb-bb28-4e98-b474-6d12634176aa-0
00:46:33.520 --> 00:46:36.210
Furthermore, we see some normal
faulting, particularly the

52d444eb-bb28-4e98-b474-6d12634176aa-1
00:46:36.210 --> 00:46:38.400
purple group here and the dark
blue group here.

04af8fe7-d2be-47a9-8690-a56ee0e06503-0
00:46:38.880 --> 00:46:42.422
I should say this these right
hand plots are a zoomed view of

04af8fe7-d2be-47a9-8690-a56ee0e06503-1
00:46:42.422 --> 00:46:45.280
the map view and cross section
shown on the left.

d50ce9da-f818-43a4-bdd1-0a5f1c975e36-0
00:46:48.520 --> 00:46:52.233
We estimate the Coseismic slip
distribution from the GNSS

d50ce9da-f818-43a4-bdd1-0a5f1c975e36-1
00:46:52.233 --> 00:46:55.757
displacements as well as
modeling the seismic data, and

d50ce9da-f818-43a4-bdd1-0a5f1c975e36-2
00:46:55.757 --> 00:46:59.533
we find different
answers depending on whether we

d50ce9da-f818-43a4-bdd1-0a5f1c975e36-3
00:46:59.533 --> 00:47:02.240
force the slip to be deep within
the slab.

b1e29c76-4a6f-4b77-b806-da5296e63b81-0
00:47:02.280 --> 00:47:06.268
If we don't do that, the model
wants to put considerable slip

b1e29c76-4a6f-4b77-b806-da5296e63b81-1
00:47:06.268 --> 00:47:08.520
within the upper part of the
slab.

b5f7bf12-cb62-4939-bfce-7b92c4dd748f-0
00:47:09.120 --> 00:47:12.346
However, we don't really see
aftershocks within the upper

b5f7bf12-cb62-4939-bfce-7b92c4dd748f-1
00:47:12.346 --> 00:47:12.680
plate.

67778635-6009-44e8-9d6c-7f4a7ae45204-0
00:47:15.040 --> 00:47:17.736
The slip distribution in this
model goes up to about 5km

67778635-6009-44e8-9d6c-7f4a7ae45204-1
00:47:17.736 --> 00:47:20.972
depth, and this is an
area where we've had earthquakes

67778635-6009-44e8-9d6c-7f4a7ae45204-2
00:47:20.972 --> 00:47:22.640
and many aftershocks in the
past.

a59489e6-9e48-4275-bf2c-a534b02ab938-0
00:47:23.440 --> 00:47:27.202
However, we can force the slip
to be down at slab depths, in

a59489e6-9e48-4275-bf2c-a534b02ab938-1
00:47:27.202 --> 00:47:30.594
this case 15km or
deeper, and we fit the data

a59489e6-9e48-4275-bf2c-a534b02ab938-2
00:47:30.594 --> 00:47:31.519
almost as well.

c68ae4d8-2ae4-444a-b3dc-7df47f8c8b57-0
00:47:32.400 --> 00:47:36.619
So in this case we consider that
this depth constrained inversion

c68ae4d8-2ae4-444a-b3dc-7df47f8c8b57-1
00:47:36.619 --> 00:47:40.200
is the more likely or more
realistic slip distribution.

be1dbf93-779f-459e-af5f-25eefe120e20-0
00:47:40.200 --> 00:47:42.480
With slip primarily confined
within the slab.

504ce563-99e0-4aa2-b384-bbeb544a059f-0
00:47:44.560 --> 00:47:48.793
If we look at the postseismic
motion, things get even more

504ce563-99e0-4aa2-b384-bbeb544a059f-1
00:47:48.793 --> 00:47:49.640
interesting.

7f07d55d-4c21-4f1f-88fd-19681156b3c6-0
00:47:50.440 --> 00:47:53.440
This plot is showing three
different GPS stations.

2315807e-b08a-4247-8a58-1911b501b8df-0
00:47:53.440 --> 00:47:57.180
There's a red box here
corresponding to this plot in

2315807e-b08a-4247-8a58-1911b501b8df-1
00:47:57.180 --> 00:48:01.344
the upper right and the two
purple boxes showing these two

2315807e-b08a-4247-8a58-1911b501b8df-2
00:48:01.344 --> 00:48:03.320
stations on the lower right.

ddeb7409-d944-460d-ae09-e2a85672eb62-0
00:48:03.960 --> 00:48:08.041
If I focus on station P158 here,
that's this bold purple box

ddeb7409-d944-460d-ae09-e2a85672eb62-1
00:48:08.041 --> 00:48:12.256
shown in the map view, we can
see that the motion is steady

ddeb7409-d944-460d-ae09-e2a85672eb62-2
00:48:12.256 --> 00:48:15.200
for several months prior to the
earthquake.

553f9ce2-5299-4d87-92e4-9a2383409c56-0
00:48:15.200 --> 00:48:17.720
This is a one-year time period
spanning the earthquake.

d4c67bcf-1ec9-4eaf-8533-fcd46ddfdb4b-0
00:48:18.160 --> 00:48:21.886
Then we see there's sudden
eastward motion with the

d4c67bcf-1ec9-4eaf-8533-fcd46ddfdb4b-1
00:48:21.886 --> 00:48:24.960
mainshock, the Coseismic
displacement there.

9bdb4bba-6ffe-400d-ab33-a7fe0817b22d-0
00:48:25.560 --> 00:48:27.440
And then a really strange thing
happens.

884a586e-0aeb-40af-adb6-b88e1b8eb83f-0
00:48:28.880 --> 00:48:32.871
If we look at the period of
about two months following the

884a586e-0aeb-40af-adb6-b88e1b8eb83f-1
00:48:32.871 --> 00:48:36.592
earthquake, this station
actually rebounds back to the

884a586e-0aeb-40af-adb6-b88e1b8eb83f-2
00:48:36.592 --> 00:48:39.840
West recovering most of that Co-
seismic offset.

fed4ad3c-17e1-4d40-b56c-ba2f03e0c54a-0
00:48:40.560 --> 00:48:44.190
Now sometimes we see post-
seismic slip that continues the

fed4ad3c-17e1-4d40-b56c-ba2f03e0c54a-1
00:48:44.190 --> 00:48:47.946
motion seen coseismically and
this would make sense if you

fed4ad3c-17e1-4d40-b56c-ba2f03e0c54a-2
00:48:47.946 --> 00:48:50.200
have after slip on that same
fault.

fa80e9f4-893b-4bd3-90eb-22c7f5f74809-0
00:48:50.520 --> 00:48:54.826
But the fact that this motion
reverses the Coseismic motion

fa80e9f4-893b-4bd3-90eb-22c7f5f74809-1
00:48:54.826 --> 00:48:59.062
is an indication that this slip
is occurring on a different

fa80e9f4-893b-4bd3-90eb-22c7f5f74809-2
00:48:59.062 --> 00:49:03.440
fault and that fault is likely
the Cascadia megathrust fault.

c39f63c4-4afa-483d-a726-1bd8bc8faed7-0
00:49:03.960 --> 00:49:06.968
So this plot on the left is
showing the slip 

c39f63c4-4afa-483d-a726-1bd8bc8faed7-1
00:49:06.968 --> 00:49:10.760
distribution that we estimate to
fit this postseismic motion.

7689c428-e292-48dd-9252-a4b6f7dea745-0
00:49:10.760 --> 00:49:15.244
It does a quite a good job of
explaining that motion, and it

7689c428-e292-48dd-9252-a4b6f7dea745-1
00:49:15.244 --> 00:49:19.656
has up to 4 cm of slip
on the interface, primarily

7689c428-e292-48dd-9252-a4b6f7dea745-2
00:49:19.656 --> 00:49:21.200
south of the rupture.

2bc5a444-db03-40c6-80f6-9fb0e2cfdcdf-0
00:49:22.000 --> 00:49:25.484
This is also an area where the
coupling on the subduction zone

2bc5a444-db03-40c6-80f6-9fb0e2cfdcdf-1
00:49:25.484 --> 00:49:28.969
transitions from highly coupled
to the north of the rupture to

2bc5a444-db03-40c6-80f6-9fb0e2cfdcdf-2
00:49:28.969 --> 00:49:31.680
less highly coupled to the south
of the rupture.

1792d4a5-f7fb-4ca5-b51b-655b0365729b-0
00:49:32.120 --> 00:49:35.367
So you may have this 
situation where the southern

1792d4a5-f7fb-4ca5-b51b-655b0365729b-1
00:49:35.367 --> 00:49:38.615
part is creeping, the northern
part is locked and it's

1792d4a5-f7fb-4ca5-b51b-655b0365729b-2
00:49:38.615 --> 00:49:42.217
essentially tearing the slab
apart and this earthquake could

1792d4a5-f7fb-4ca5-b51b-655b0365729b-3
00:49:42.217 --> 00:49:44.519
help accommodate that relative
motion.

5f1a1e53-587e-4a1e-b745-8a1ee98c6464-0
00:49:45.120 --> 00:49:48.915
If we look at the Coulomb stress
transfer from the mainshock

5f1a1e53-587e-4a1e-b745-8a1ee98c6464-1
00:49:48.915 --> 00:49:52.711
expected onto the megathrust, we
see up to 200 kilopascals of

5f1a1e53-587e-4a1e-b745-8a1ee98c6464-2
00:49:52.711 --> 00:49:56.629
encouraging stress for a slip on
the megathrust primarily south

5f1a1e53-587e-4a1e-b745-8a1ee98c6464-3
00:49:56.629 --> 00:50:00.241
of the rupture, consistent with
the region where we see 

5f1a1e53-587e-4a1e-b745-8a1ee98c6464-4
00:50:00.241 --> 00:50:01.160
coseismic motion.

c184959c-a66f-49c1-9850-72ff3d1a4bcf-0
00:50:02.040 --> 00:50:05.369
Coincidentally, we also see an
episodic tremor and slip event

c184959c-a66f-49c1-9850-72ff3d1a4bcf-1
00:50:05.369 --> 00:50:07.840
that occurs down dip during this
time period.

e2904bba-7a1a-435a-b4b5-7cb78c42da5f-0
00:50:07.840 --> 00:50:11.561
It initiates about two weeks
after after the rupture, but is

e2904bba-7a1a-435a-b4b5-7cb78c42da5f-1
00:50:11.561 --> 00:50:12.720
probably unrelated.

f1fa87d5-b3ac-4f70-91a0-2dcfd6b515ff-0
00:50:15.720 --> 00:50:18.480
To help visualize this motion,
we made these cartoons.

2ad8edcc-0cf8-485f-b19c-bbafef5deafc-0
00:50:18.480 --> 00:50:20.720
The left plot is showing the
coseismic motion.

c488deac-f73b-4c67-a8f5-6a3f32efaaa0-0
00:50:20.720 --> 00:50:23.862
Is this Crimson zone of left
lateral strike slip motion

c488deac-f73b-4c67-a8f5-6a3f32efaaa0-1
00:50:23.862 --> 00:50:27.228
within the slab this kind of
tearing motion within the slab

c488deac-f73b-4c67-a8f5-6a3f32efaaa0-2
00:50:27.228 --> 00:50:30.707
and then the plot on the right
shows the postseismic motion,

c488deac-f73b-4c67-a8f5-6a3f32efaaa0-3
00:50:30.707 --> 00:50:34.018
the Blue Zone on the subduction
interface that essentially

c488deac-f73b-4c67-a8f5-6a3f32efaaa0-4
00:50:34.018 --> 00:50:36.880
accommodates this relative
motion within the slab.

50828ee6-e8d9-4803-904f-1e8fb96399ea-0
00:50:37.280 --> 00:50:40.935
You can think of this almost as
like a buried surface rupture at

50828ee6-e8d9-4803-904f-1e8fb96399ea-1
00:50:40.935 --> 00:50:42.960
the surface of the subducting
slab.

204eb007-dc7f-4135-914b-4dcb116279d6-0
00:50:46.680 --> 00:50:49.731
So in conclusion, our primary
results, we find that

204eb007-dc7f-4135-914b-4dcb116279d6-1
00:50:49.731 --> 00:50:53.018
aftershocks are primarily
confined within the uppermost

204eb007-dc7f-4135-914b-4dcb116279d6-2
00:50:53.018 --> 00:50:56.129
Gorda slab, probably on
hydrated faults and they're

204eb007-dc7f-4135-914b-4dcb116279d6-3
00:50:56.129 --> 00:50:59.240
notably absent from the
subduction interface itself.

ca3e7a54-77e5-4801-bbe6-6b059fc5d2cf-0
00:51:00.280 --> 00:51:03.987
Our preferred slip model has 
coseismic rupture confined within

ca3e7a54-77e5-4801-bbe6-6b059fc5d2cf-1
00:51:03.987 --> 00:51:07.753
the slab and we identified 
postseismic deformation that is well

ca3e7a54-77e5-4801-bbe6-6b059fc5d2cf-2
00:51:07.753 --> 00:51:11.114
modeled by up to 4cm
of slip on the subduction

ca3e7a54-77e5-4801-bbe6-6b059fc5d2cf-3
00:51:11.114 --> 00:51:14.590
interface consistent with the
modeled stress transfer from

ca3e7a54-77e5-4801-bbe6-6b059fc5d2cf-4
00:51:14.590 --> 00:51:16.560
the coseismic slip
distribution.

1458d4ff-879c-42cf-9002-7dd2cd16dac9-0
00:51:17.400 --> 00:51:19.480
The implications of this are
even more important.

c0256725-3a13-4183-8f1d-31e35da0e61a-0
00:51:20.440 --> 00:51:23.437
This sequence demonstrates
potential for interactions

c0256725-3a13-4183-8f1d-31e35da0e61a-1
00:51:23.437 --> 00:51:26.989
between these different types of
subduction earthquakes that we

c0256725-3a13-4183-8f1d-31e35da0e61a-2
00:51:26.989 --> 00:51:30.596
usually consider separately, in
this case intraslab earthquakes

c0256725-3a13-4183-8f1d-31e35da0e61a-3
00:51:30.596 --> 00:51:32.040
and slip on the interface.

031fe062-554c-4189-a0f0-9ab666356eb8-0
00:51:33.280 --> 00:51:36.420
So we really need to consider
the possibility that intraslab

031fe062-554c-4189-a0f0-9ab666356eb8-1
00:51:36.420 --> 00:51:39.256
earthquakes could be potential
triggers for slip on the

031fe062-554c-4189-a0f0-9ab666356eb8-2
00:51:39.256 --> 00:51:40.320
subduction interface.

1684c59a-2c9b-4de7-a9e4-3b54af877036-0
00:51:40.560 --> 00:51:43.993
Now in the case of the Ferndale
earthquake, this slip on the

1684c59a-2c9b-4de7-a9e4-3b54af877036-1
00:51:43.993 --> 00:51:47.201
interface was aseismic slow
postseismic motion, but it

1684c59a-2c9b-4de7-a9e4-3b54af877036-2
00:51:47.201 --> 00:51:48.440
could also be seismic.

90ffc8b5-3dfa-471b-8a61-2255df380b8f-0
00:51:48.960 --> 00:51:52.414
And in fact, it's conceivable
that the next megathrust

90ffc8b5-3dfa-471b-8a61-2255df380b8f-1
00:51:52.414 --> 00:51:55.681
earthquake on the Cascadia
subjection zone could be

90ffc8b5-3dfa-471b-8a61-2255df380b8f-2
00:51:55.681 --> 00:51:57.880
initiated by slip within the
slab.

f1a78f77-b540-4db4-835a-b2a3158a4bfc-0
00:51:58.640 --> 00:51:59.440
Thanks very much.

3f259cf8-0a95-4ba3-94b1-bc78cf0f2062-0
00:52:07.580 --> 00:52:08.740
Thanks so much, David.

7e65bfa2-8fe8-493f-af44-67d68fb13db5-0
00:52:09.140 --> 00:52:12.900
That's really excellent and
scary.

11eadcf2-715a-4df9-9840-5dfca68847db-0
00:52:13.900 --> 00:52:17.138
So we are now, as Sarah
mentioned, we're gonna turn to

11eadcf2-715a-4df9-9840-5dfca68847db-1
00:52:17.138 --> 00:52:20.965
Jon Stewart, who's down in New
Zealand to kind of bring us home

11eadcf2-715a-4df9-9840-5dfca68847db-2
00:52:20.965 --> 00:52:21.260
here.

7a2cad65-43a0-4665-982c-f4d510f48357-0
00:52:21.500 --> 00:52:26.320
I was thinking, John, just about
all the reconnaissance that I

7a2cad65-43a0-4665-982c-f4d510f48357-1
00:52:26.320 --> 00:52:30.988
know you've done with the GEER
Association, but also just of

7a2cad65-43a0-4665-982c-f4d510f48357-2
00:52:30.988 --> 00:52:35.120
all the earthquakes that this
panel collectively have

7a2cad65-43a0-4665-982c-f4d510f48357-3
00:52:35.120 --> 00:52:36.880
investigated over time.

09fd2099-2035-4061-b14f-e4f4e8fc769e-0
00:52:36.880 --> 00:52:40.798
So I think we have
even though none of us were here

09fd2099-2035-4061-b14f-e4f4e8fc769e-1
00:52:40.798 --> 00:52:44.653
for the 1923 Kanto earthquake,
we certainly have hundreds of

09fd2099-2035-4061-b14f-e4f4e8fc769e-2
00:52:44.653 --> 00:52:47.559
years of collective experience
in this panel.

2337bb80-c929-4be9-892f-be6df42ed8b8-0
00:52:48.320 --> 00:52:49.040
And thanks.

62b89e10-cead-4d56-a466-66dd35900804-0
00:52:49.400 --> 00:52:51.440
And we'll listen to John's
presentation now.

39c179a4-3b1b-441b-b4d0-79c73d057032-0
00:52:54.240 --> 00:52:57.600
Greetings, I'm Jon Stewart, I'm
glad to be with you here today.

8c308a18-0779-413a-bc84-3bb7ed276f6c-0
00:52:58.160 --> 00:53:01.940
I'm going to be speaking about
the benefits and impacts of post

8c308a18-0779-413a-bc84-3bb7ed276f6c-1
00:53:01.940 --> 00:53:03.240
events reconnaissance.

cb18a46d-ac31-459f-bdaf-ddf0de8c36cd-0
00:53:03.920 --> 00:53:08.298
I'm a professor in UCLA Samueli
Engineering, a board member with

cb18a46d-ac31-459f-bdaf-ddf0de8c36cd-1
00:53:08.298 --> 00:53:12.475
EERI and the board liaison to
the Learning from Earthquakes

cb18a46d-ac31-459f-bdaf-ddf0de8c36cd-2
00:53:12.475 --> 00:53:16.181
Program and a Co-Pi of the
Geotechnical Extreme Events

cb18a46d-ac31-459f-bdaf-ddf0de8c36cd-3
00:53:16.181 --> 00:53:18.000
Reconnaissance (GEER) association.

4197a68a-0623-443a-8934-a88a9f2816ff-0
00:53:20.280 --> 00:53:23.680
I'll be talking about two main
themes here today.

f00d902c-8226-4fb0-a0a0-0ff235be7171-0
00:53:24.160 --> 00:53:28.550
The first has to do with kind of
the technical impacts of

f00d902c-8226-4fb0-a0a0-0ff235be7171-1
00:53:28.550 --> 00:53:31.880
reconnaissance, how
reconnaissance findings

f00d902c-8226-4fb0-a0a0-0ff235be7171-2
00:53:31.880 --> 00:53:33.999
facilitate research and 

afd227d2-7f4d-4f44-8e92-21f7d0f9aeb6-0
00:53:34.160 --> 00:53:37.366
that research then is the
basis for improvements in our

afd227d2-7f4d-4f44-8e92-21f7d0f9aeb6-1
00:53:37.366 --> 00:53:40.358
understanding of earthquake
processes and its impact on

afd227d2-7f4d-4f44-8e92-21f7d0f9aeb6-2
00:53:40.358 --> 00:53:41.160
infrastructure.

e8f2bff7-f810-41a7-8bf6-164245c70b76-0
00:53:42.480 --> 00:53:45.520
The second part of the talk will
be more human focused.

dc6c0519-c314-40cd-9d39-7639aa95c481-0
00:53:45.520 --> 00:53:49.781
It's about how participation and
reconnaissance teams has

dc6c0519-c314-40cd-9d39-7639aa95c481-1
00:53:49.781 --> 00:53:54.189
profoundly impacted many young
researchers and I will presents

dc6c0519-c314-40cd-9d39-7639aa95c481-2
00:53:54.189 --> 00:53:56.320
comments from a few examples.

6798bd26-7371-49b6-b521-5e94e41abc08-0
00:53:59.320 --> 00:54:04.246
So when we think about the
impacts of reconnaissance on our

6798bd26-7371-49b6-b521-5e94e41abc08-1
00:54:04.246 --> 00:54:08.844
practice as earthquake
professionals, one of the things

6798bd26-7371-49b6-b521-5e94e41abc08-2
00:54:08.844 --> 00:54:13.852
that we see repeatedly is that
when we go out and we look at

6798bd26-7371-49b6-b521-5e94e41abc08-3
00:54:13.852 --> 00:54:18.778
what actually has happened,
we're surprised and we may then

6798bd26-7371-49b6-b521-5e94e41abc08-4
00:54:18.778 --> 00:54:22.720
move our research in an entirely
new direction.

2f9754bc-e531-4f1b-bda7-ba6bacc87977-0
00:54:24.000 --> 00:54:25.600
So there's many examples of
this.

eb5b33bf-e3c1-4191-a7e7-5565901d8063-0
00:54:25.680 --> 00:54:30.240
I'll talk about one here, which
is steel construction.

5b9c7fd5-05f8-4008-a795-da9a0801520d-0
00:54:30.320 --> 00:54:32.800
So this is the frame of a steel
building.

3c235125-85f9-4c24-8939-03c3657157f1-0
00:54:33.800 --> 00:54:38.168
Steel frame buildings have been
with us for a very long time and

3c235125-85f9-4c24-8939-03c3657157f1-1
00:54:38.168 --> 00:54:42.334
prior to 1994 had been through
many earthquakes successfully,

3c235125-85f9-4c24-8939-03c3657157f1-2
00:54:42.334 --> 00:54:45.560
or at least much more
successfully then masonry

3c235125-85f9-4c24-8939-03c3657157f1-3
00:54:45.560 --> 00:54:49.256
structures and concrete
structures, particularly older

3c235125-85f9-4c24-8939-03c3657157f1-4
00:54:49.256 --> 00:54:50.600
concrete structures.

51429945-dad3-41a4-9db2-fb244be4538a-0
00:54:51.160 --> 00:54:55.158
And so there was kind of a
prevailing feeling that steel

51429945-dad3-41a4-9db2-fb244be4538a-1
00:54:55.158 --> 00:54:59.577
structures were relatively good,
more earthquake resistant and

51429945-dad3-41a4-9db2-fb244be4538a-2
00:54:59.577 --> 00:55:00.560
more reliable.

61f202e0-c377-4d28-9b19-c4ebb412c867-0
00:55:01.920 --> 00:55:05.761
What we found in the Northridge
earthquake; however, once people

61f202e0-c377-4d28-9b19-c4ebb412c867-1
00:55:05.761 --> 00:55:09.367
broke through walls and took a
look at some of the beams and

61f202e0-c377-4d28-9b19-c4ebb412c867-2
00:55:09.367 --> 00:55:12.972
columns, is that cracks were
showing up, an example of which

61f202e0-c377-4d28-9b19-c4ebb412c867-3
00:55:12.972 --> 00:55:13.799
is shown here.

81474385-ffd0-41ed-b7e2-4ab0d8f702d7-0
00:55:14.400 --> 00:55:17.147
And these cracks have
significantly weakened the

81474385-ffd0-41ed-b7e2-4ab0d8f702d7-1
00:55:17.147 --> 00:55:20.174
structure, making it more
vulnerable to collapse from

81474385-ffd0-41ed-b7e2-4ab0d8f702d7-2
00:55:20.174 --> 00:55:21.240
future earthquakes.

2bf971f6-c93c-41d7-b6b7-e020e89ca7f6-0
00:55:21.240 --> 00:55:24.290
In fact, there's been quite a
bit of speculation of how much

2bf971f6-c93c-41d7-b6b7-e020e89ca7f6-1
00:55:24.290 --> 00:55:26.890
more duration from the
Northridge earthquakes would

2bf971f6-c93c-41d7-b6b7-e020e89ca7f6-2
00:55:26.890 --> 00:55:29.040
have brought some of these
buildings down.

038aefdd-ada1-4377-bc67-e5de3efcad2a-0
00:55:29.960 --> 00:55:34.113
So this realization that steel
frame buildings do in fact have

038aefdd-ada1-4377-bc67-e5de3efcad2a-1
00:55:34.113 --> 00:55:38.069
some of these vulnerabilities
spurred research that went on

038aefdd-ada1-4377-bc67-e5de3efcad2a-2
00:55:38.069 --> 00:55:39.520
for quite a long time.

d3e5cd8f-7762-4146-a148-57b42aff0aa7-0
00:55:39.520 --> 00:55:43.574
It was called the SAC Steel
Project and it ultimately led to

d3e5cd8f-7762-4146-a148-57b42aff0aa7-1
00:55:43.574 --> 00:55:47.429
understanding that these
problems were related to certain

d3e5cd8f-7762-4146-a148-57b42aff0aa7-2
00:55:47.429 --> 00:55:51.483
welding practices and newer
practices were derived to try to

d3e5cd8f-7762-4146-a148-57b42aff0aa7-3
00:55:51.483 --> 00:55:52.679
solve the problem.

406c1565-22d6-42c8-aa9c-2bce9e8d19bf-0
00:55:56.480 --> 00:55:59.969
Not everything we observe after
an earthquake, of course, is a

406c1565-22d6-42c8-aa9c-2bce9e8d19bf-1
00:55:59.969 --> 00:56:00.800
great surprise.

c9ad0199-0367-40d8-8685-f1fe3b0f4ce6-0
00:56:00.800 --> 00:56:05.918
Sometimes we see the things we
might have expected to see, and

c9ad0199-0367-40d8-8685-f1fe3b0f4ce6-1
00:56:05.918 --> 00:56:10.711
one example is shown here, where
we've had liquefaction on

c9ad0199-0367-40d8-8685-f1fe3b0f4ce6-2
00:56:10.711 --> 00:56:15.260
saturated grounds from fairly
strong shaking, the Nigata

c9ad0199-0367-40d8-8685-f1fe3b0f4ce6-3
00:56:15.260 --> 00:56:19.159
earthquake just because we might
have expected 

45bc0097-81c4-4dfa-8a3c-5c2b0d471883-0
00:56:19.160 --> 00:56:23.208
this does not mean, however,
that it's not valuable, because

45bc0097-81c4-4dfa-8a3c-5c2b0d471883-1
00:56:23.208 --> 00:56:27.257
it is possible in many cases to
take the information derived

45bc0097-81c4-4dfa-8a3c-5c2b0d471883-2
00:56:27.257 --> 00:56:30.643
from our reconnaissance along
with some subsequent

45bc0097-81c4-4dfa-8a3c-5c2b0d471883-3
00:56:30.643 --> 00:56:34.493
investigation, and come up with
case history data that is

45bc0097-81c4-4dfa-8a3c-5c2b0d471883-4
00:56:34.493 --> 00:56:37.480
directly employed within models
that we use.

cd42ebc3-00f4-4153-b557-7dd701e5e78b-0
00:56:38.240 --> 00:56:40.040
And liquefaction is one such
case.

21a07253-bb02-454c-bee5-65c2fcc89678-0
00:56:40.040 --> 00:56:43.100
So we take observations like
this one where liquefaction

21a07253-bb02-454c-bee5-65c2fcc89678-1
00:56:43.100 --> 00:56:46.160
happened along with other
observations where it did not.

120159f2-55cd-4473-96ea-776ad9123a31-0
00:56:47.480 --> 00:56:49.840
We do subsequent investigations.

1a8905d0-6d92-4bdf-a0dd-959509b8b466-0
00:56:49.840 --> 00:56:53.310
This is the log of a boring
where we can see different soil

1a8905d0-6d92-4bdf-a0dd-959509b8b466-1
00:56:53.310 --> 00:56:56.029
types and different soil
properties, including

1a8905d0-6d92-4bdf-a0dd-959509b8b466-2
00:56:56.029 --> 00:56:57.359
penetration resistance.

6c9605d8-888d-4c6c-a4b5-6942eb71807a-0
00:56:58.080 --> 00:57:01.988
We find the layer within this
profile that might have been

6c9605d8-888d-4c6c-a4b5-6942eb71807a-1
00:57:01.988 --> 00:57:06.228
most likely to have produced the
liquefaction, and by combining

6c9605d8-888d-4c6c-a4b5-6942eb71807a-2
00:57:06.228 --> 00:57:10.336
the observation with the soil
profile, some information about

6c9605d8-888d-4c6c-a4b5-6942eb71807a-3
00:57:10.336 --> 00:57:13.980
the ground shaking in the
earthquake, we can develop a

6c9605d8-888d-4c6c-a4b5-6942eb71807a-4
00:57:13.980 --> 00:57:17.160
data point like this one in
green on the graph.

ea13b2b5-f5b5-4ce0-b593-ce5b52a0e7cc-0
00:57:18.200 --> 00:57:23.291
That data point represents that
case history, and the value on

ea13b2b5-f5b5-4ce0-b593-ce5b52a0e7cc-1
00:57:23.291 --> 00:57:26.120
the Y axis is a loading
parameter.

9b9ee011-b2d6-414b-bc93-faa9383e5c89-0
00:57:26.160 --> 00:57:29.104
It's related to the strength of
the shaking at that site during

9b9ee011-b2d6-414b-bc93-faa9383e5c89-1
00:57:29.104 --> 00:57:29.840
that earthquake.

58ca28d2-43e6-43f4-ba00-5e5f722d112b-0
00:57:31.080 --> 00:57:34.956
And what's on the X axis is a
soil resistance parameter that's

58ca28d2-43e6-43f4-ba00-5e5f722d112b-1
00:57:34.956 --> 00:57:36.680
coming from that boring log.

4e57a1c4-ec38-4790-a195-128693dcec94-0
00:57:37.400 --> 00:57:41.371
And so we can position different
case histories within this space

4e57a1c4-ec38-4790-a195-128693dcec94-1
00:57:41.371 --> 00:57:45.222
and then we can draw a boundary
line separating the solid dots,

4e57a1c4-ec38-4790-a195-128693dcec94-2
00:57:45.222 --> 00:57:48.651
which are liquefaction, from
open circles, which are 

4e57a1c4-ec38-4790-a195-128693dcec94-3
00:57:48.651 --> 00:57:51.480
non-liquefaction, and that then
becomes the model.

41a2a8e5-9af0-4e04-99e4-9cf6bce9b556-0
00:57:51.960 --> 00:57:55.513
So this is a good example of how
observations from earthquakes,

41a2a8e5-9af0-4e04-99e4-9cf6bce9b556-1
00:57:55.513 --> 00:57:58.733
even if they're expected, are
still very useful for model

41a2a8e5-9af0-4e04-99e4-9cf6bce9b556-2
00:57:58.733 --> 00:57:59.400
development.

c4eb795d-2728-49c7-8742-9c689b1b8a28-0
00:58:02.120 --> 00:58:06.880
Another type of use of case
history data is for validation.

1fbca258-4d6f-4a9e-b074-6cf60d84f45d-0
00:58:07.720 --> 00:58:11.830
Now what we're talking about
with validation is we,

1fbca258-4d6f-4a9e-b074-6cf60d84f45d-1
00:58:11.830 --> 00:58:15.865
engineers and engineering
seismologists and so on, we

1fbca258-4d6f-4a9e-b074-6cf60d84f45d-2
00:58:15.865 --> 00:58:20.349
create models for a certain
phenomenon, and sometimes these

1fbca258-4d6f-4a9e-b074-6cf60d84f45d-3
00:58:20.349 --> 00:58:24.759
models can be fairly involved
mechanistic models or finite

1fbca258-4d6f-4a9e-b074-6cf60d84f45d-4
00:58:24.759 --> 00:58:25.880
element models.

4764198d-714d-4c4b-bba3-e4c2f22c4cd7-0
00:58:26.520 --> 00:58:30.589
And we're not really sure that
these models are going to be

4764198d-714d-4c4b-bba3-e4c2f22c4cd7-1
00:58:30.589 --> 00:58:31.200
accurate.

b27a508c-31dd-45ee-b126-1ea432ac71b7-0
00:58:31.200 --> 00:58:34.467
So we want to do a comparison of
our model predictions to

b27a508c-31dd-45ee-b126-1ea432ac71b7-1
00:58:34.467 --> 00:58:35.200
observations.

a02ba6a2-9b24-456f-833e-4221a10acc77-0
00:58:36.160 --> 00:58:40.537
This is really essential because
these physics based models are

a02ba6a2-9b24-456f-833e-4221a10acc77-1
00:58:40.537 --> 00:58:43.000
always a simplification of
reality.

6ac8d491-594e-4280-a194-411fea9642f6-0
00:58:43.160 --> 00:58:46.427
And so whether they actually are
effective or the range of

6ac8d491-594e-4280-a194-411fea9642f6-1
00:58:46.427 --> 00:58:49.806
conditions over which they're
effective is very important to

6ac8d491-594e-4280-a194-411fea9642f6-2
00:58:49.806 --> 00:58:50.360
establish.

00977e2b-7400-468b-a3a5-3e70698b5b92-0
00:58:52.000 --> 00:58:55.353
So one example of this, this is
an example of landslides from

00977e2b-7400-468b-a3a5-3e70698b5b92-1
00:58:55.353 --> 00:58:56.760
the Northridge earthquake.

44d1f171-06a7-4da7-b031-840740809f63-0
00:58:56.760 --> 00:59:00.608
This is a map prepared by Randy
Jibson and his colleagues, where

44d1f171-06a7-4da7-b031-840740809f63-1
00:59:00.608 --> 00:59:03.628
the dark blotches on the map
indicate locations of

44d1f171-06a7-4da7-b031-840740809f63-2
00:59:03.628 --> 00:59:04.280
landslides.

565e2f4a-a39a-481e-8fab-6306e60b3dc3-0
00:59:04.840 --> 00:59:09.148
And then he took a mechanistic
model for Newmark sliding block

565e2f4a-a39a-481e-8fab-6306e60b3dc3-1
00:59:09.148 --> 00:59:13.387
displacements, predicted the
level of displacement as colored

565e2f4a-a39a-481e-8fab-6306e60b3dc3-2
00:59:13.387 --> 00:59:17.217
for that same region on this
plot, and then was able to

565e2f4a-a39a-481e-8fab-6306e60b3dc3-3
00:59:17.217 --> 00:59:21.662
compare where the model predicts
accurately the actual locations

565e2f4a-a39a-481e-8fab-6306e60b3dc3-4
00:59:21.662 --> 00:59:23.440
of landslide displacement.

9472a977-2944-4306-8ca7-cff1ff19034b-0
00:59:23.440 --> 00:59:27.361
And in that way, he was able to
come up with relationships for

9472a977-2944-4306-8ca7-cff1ff19034b-1
00:59:27.361 --> 00:59:30.723
how much Newmark displacement
would be predicting the

9472a977-2944-4306-8ca7-cff1ff19034b-2
00:59:30.723 --> 00:59:32.279
occurrence of landslides.

42622634-b94f-495f-9b9e-a268faef6e72-0
00:59:35.080 --> 00:59:39.125
The second thing I'd like to
talk about is how participation

42622634-b94f-495f-9b9e-a268faef6e72-1
00:59:39.125 --> 00:59:42.840
in reconnaissance teams has
impacted young researchers.

8b2ec7e1-f607-4a4f-b5ee-f7d5cc3ba3eb-0
00:59:43.320 --> 00:59:45.899
Certainly impacted me and
virtually everybody I know

8b2ec7e1-f607-4a4f-b5ee-f7d5cc3ba3eb-1
00:59:45.899 --> 00:59:47.360
that's been on these missions.

420bb1b5-ab82-464a-9df1-9243e9d3e78b-0
00:59:48.160 --> 00:59:51.753
As part of this, I reached out
to a few people who've done this

420bb1b5-ab82-464a-9df1-9243e9d3e78b-1
00:59:51.753 --> 00:59:54.280
for the first time in the last
decade or so.

a9ad5960-0516-4112-95f8-a2e8effa9246-0
00:59:54.800 --> 00:59:58.960
And I've organized their
comments to kind of convey a bit

a9ad5960-0516-4112-95f8-a2e8effa9246-1
00:59:58.960 --> 01:00:03.479
about what is the kind of impact
that this can have on a young

a9ad5960-0516-4112-95f8-a2e8effa9246-2
01:00:03.479 --> 01:00:05.560
person early in their career.

8fb0aaa7-f1d3-4e98-8546-3e891e20b29e-0
01:00:07.360 --> 01:00:09.320
I'd like to start with Ashley
Cabas Mijares.

b54cb6ea-855c-4303-b26d-a8652a432b33-0
01:00:09.320 --> 01:00:13.492
She's a professor at NC State
and she wrote to me that

b54cb6ea-855c-4303-b26d-a8652a432b33-1
01:00:13.492 --> 01:00:15.920
participating in reconnaissance.

eed99aa1-87c5-4df6-9c4b-34b8de044173-0
01:00:16.320 --> 01:00:19.284
Raised my awareness about the
disproportionate effects of

eed99aa1-87c5-4df6-9c4b-34b8de044173-1
01:00:19.284 --> 01:00:21.840
earthquakes on vulnerable
communities, she added.

1da6876a-9139-4f2b-ab06-3deb3593be90-0
01:00:21.840 --> 01:00:25.376
I became increasingly interested
in disaster resilience research

1da6876a-9139-4f2b-ab06-3deb3593be90-1
01:00:25.376 --> 01:00:27.824
with the focus on the
intersection of social

1da6876a-9139-4f2b-ab06-3deb3593be90-2
01:00:27.824 --> 01:00:30.000
vulnerability, hazards, and
engineering.

343d49b1-3501-4af9-b3f5-28654b596442-0
01:00:32.920 --> 01:00:36.525
Paolo Zimmaro is associate
professor at the University of

343d49b1-3501-4af9-b3f5-28654b596442-1
01:00:36.525 --> 01:00:40.324
Calabria was very involved in
reconnaissance following the

343d49b1-3501-4af9-b3f5-28654b596442-2
01:00:40.324 --> 01:00:42.320
2016 Central Italy earthquakes.

9ee6e3a4-6b77-4c22-a841-950b015bd79b-0
01:00:43.200 --> 01:00:46.109
He wrote that reconnaissance
activities gave me increased

9ee6e3a4-6b77-4c22-a841-950b015bd79b-1
01:00:46.109 --> 01:00:49.018
awareness of our role as
earthquake engineers towards the

9ee6e3a4-6b77-4c22-a841-950b015bd79b-2
01:00:49.018 --> 01:00:49.519
community.

4a922594-5e3d-4442-b0aa-7ede49197c12-0
01:00:50.000 --> 01:00:52.920
Our work can make a tangible
impact and change lives.

332b4ba7-d962-444e-8716-a41179e00b47-0
01:00:53.600 --> 01:00:56.716
My first-hand reconnaissance
experiences became part of my

332b4ba7-d962-444e-8716-a41179e00b47-1
01:00:56.716 --> 01:00:57.720
teaching materials.

69cee890-d6bb-4062-a596-70a1b54e0cfc-0
01:00:57.720 --> 01:01:00.895
Students are more engaged when
learning that I was actually

69cee890-d6bb-4062-a596-70a1b54e0cfc-1
01:01:00.895 --> 01:01:02.960
involved in doing the data
collection.

7856e7a8-30a2-48ae-ab28-f6604537d65c-0
01:01:05.280 --> 01:01:09.174
Chukwuemeka Nweke, assistant professor
at USC, has been involved in the

7856e7a8-30a2-48ae-ab28-f6604537d65c-1
01:01:09.174 --> 01:01:12.360
Ridgecrest earthquake and the
2022 Taiwan earthquake.

01248ffe-107f-4240-a5eb-b29b726c05d7-0
01:01:13.680 --> 01:01:16.954
He wrote that learning how to
conduct a proper reconnaissance

01248ffe-107f-4240-a5eb-b29b726c05d7-1
01:01:16.954 --> 01:01:19.911
clarified my perspective on
what's important in reality

01248ffe-107f-4240-a5eb-b29b726c05d7-2
01:01:19.911 --> 01:01:23.080
versus what we may think is
important in our academic work.

b17ba08e-169c-4f89-bd30-1a7953d86f2f-0
01:01:23.920 --> 01:01:27.190
And I've gained an appreciation
for the perishable nature of

b17ba08e-169c-4f89-bd30-1a7953d86f2f-1
01:01:27.190 --> 01:01:30.407
field performance data and the
need for being timely in our

b17ba08e-169c-4f89-bd30-1a7953d86f2f-2
01:01:30.407 --> 01:01:31.480
reconnaissance work.

6a89f9bf-05a5-40d3-96af-b8556120108d-0
01:01:33.560 --> 01:01:37.293
Sean Ahdi, an engineering
seismologist with AECom was

6a89f9bf-05a5-40d3-96af-b8556120108d-1
01:01:37.293 --> 01:01:40.280
involved in the 2019 Ridgecrest
earthquake.

c26b3054-fea2-4c2c-8a67-9aeb0e93b5d6-0
01:01:41.320 --> 01:01:44.410
He writes that seeing damage
first-hand, speaking to people

c26b3054-fea2-4c2c-8a67-9aeb0e93b5d6-1
01:01:44.410 --> 01:01:47.347
and getting their perspectives
is critical to doing good

c26b3054-fea2-4c2c-8a67-9aeb0e93b5d6-2
01:01:47.347 --> 01:01:48.120
reconnaissance.

c731a321-8132-444b-9ff1-7a13f5418a2b-0
01:01:48.800 --> 01:01:52.076
Having discussions with locals
who are truly scared while

c731a321-8132-444b-9ff1-7a13f5418a2b-1
01:01:52.076 --> 01:01:55.578
trying to exercise appropriate
restraint in our excitement

c731a321-8132-444b-9ff1-7a13f5418a2b-2
01:01:55.578 --> 01:01:58.516
regarding our scientific
endeavors provides a great

c731a321-8132-444b-9ff1-7a13f5418a2b-3
01:01:58.516 --> 01:02:01.680
opportunity to learn appropriate
science communication.

7164ef70-060f-4112-81e3-fab218f1736b-0
01:02:02.760 --> 01:02:05.952
And we need to be cautious to
not come across as big shots

7164ef70-060f-4112-81e3-fab218f1736b-1
01:02:05.952 --> 01:02:09.200
that are swooping in to profit
off the suffering of others.

c22d23e9-f7ff-481b-baef-e9ddbd6ddef5-0
01:02:09.480 --> 01:02:12.280
We'll do a better job to improve
our image in this regard.

5d101d0e-8f11-442c-9590-c7832af8f27f-0
01:02:13.240 --> 01:02:17.344
So I really appreciate these
comments from these folks who

5d101d0e-8f11-442c-9590-c7832af8f27f-1
01:02:17.344 --> 01:02:21.935
I reached out to and I think
that provides a nice perspective

5d101d0e-8f11-442c-9590-c7832af8f27f-2
01:02:21.935 --> 01:02:26.248
on how reconnaissance
has impacted their careers and

5d101d0e-8f11-442c-9590-c7832af8f27f-3
01:02:26.248 --> 01:02:29.239
also some good advice for those
to follow.

23e9478e-27f3-45bd-a6ca-7551be24de5f-0
01:02:30.320 --> 01:02:33.251
With that, I will wrap it up and
I appreciate the opportunity to

23e9478e-27f3-45bd-a6ca-7551be24de5f-1
01:02:33.251 --> 01:02:34.920
share these thoughts with you
today.

eb109f9d-82f2-45bc-be2e-0e053d3d838a-0
01:02:42.720 --> 01:02:47.240
Thank you, John and thank you
everybody for the great talks.

b20e568e-49cc-4a08-aebe-9c99b7aaf5e1-0
01:02:48.440 --> 01:02:51.407
Now we're starting the
discussion part of this last

b20e568e-49cc-4a08-aebe-9c99b7aaf5e1-1
01:02:51.407 --> 01:02:55.002
session and Sarah has informed
me that we can run over 4:00 if

b20e568e-49cc-4a08-aebe-9c99b7aaf5e1-2
01:02:55.002 --> 01:02:57.000
we get excited and need that
time.

4ac5f313-1e14-4885-ab41-13aed1fb7127-0
01:02:57.920 --> 01:03:00.895
If you'd like to ask a question
or make a comment, please raise

4ac5f313-1e14-4885-ab41-13aed1fb7127-1
01:03:00.895 --> 01:03:03.080
your virtual hand using the
raise hand button.

6d039070-f011-45b1-a767-9f6d2d097b10-0
01:03:03.880 --> 01:03:06.960
You can also ask questions using
chat, but they might get missed.

20a610cb-7da9-4b70-bfc1-3bbd1b9a34e1-0
01:03:07.040 --> 01:03:09.640
It's much better to turn on your
video and interact verbally.

8637aea2-a290-4d7f-9d0a-ae6e1a2e201b-0
01:03:10.400 --> 01:03:13.023
And speakers, please also turn
on your video during this

8637aea2-a290-4d7f-9d0a-ae6e1a2e201b-1
01:03:13.023 --> 01:03:13.760
Q&A session.

5b4db49e-1e50-4e66-804d-ef48e6e94b47-0
01:03:16.960 --> 01:03:18.000
I have a question.

08dc1297-501c-4a70-816e-1265de5d7954-0
01:03:18.000 --> 01:03:21.906
I asked it in the chat, but I'm
going to put one of the Dave's

08dc1297-501c-4a70-816e-1265de5d7954-1
01:03:21.906 --> 01:03:22.960
on the spot here.

73c3189e-485c-40d1-929d-f8e08f216c56-0
01:03:23.280 --> 01:03:27.855
How did Alyeska justify not
taking the design criteria full

73c3189e-485c-40d1-929d-f8e08f216c56-1
01:03:27.855 --> 01:03:28.680
face value?

c309f83f-866a-4eb7-b467-4d6be7c15448-0
01:03:28.680 --> 01:03:31.240
Did they give any excuse
whatsoever?

b44541a8-423f-45d3-bfbd-f27a9f1c380d-0
01:03:31.240 --> 01:03:34.000
You know, I can't really.

e7a183c4-c358-46c5-8595-6f6b84144369-0
01:03:34.000 --> 01:03:34.480
They got lucky.

a21a45ba-2859-4589-a1b5-8f57ce8a90c6-0
01:03:36.520 --> 01:03:42.560
I was not involved in the
discussions of the final design.

83f722aa-0e12-4900-8df9-91e18314d856-0
01:03:44.080 --> 01:03:48.400
You knew you would have to ask
Clarence or Burt or Lloyd.

052c06b3-683c-4d15-852e-2a997b590001-0
01:03:48.800 --> 01:03:54.389
Those were the three guys and
very few of us peons who were

052c06b3-683c-4d15-852e-2a997b590001-1
01:03:54.389 --> 01:04:00.071
involved in the actual field
mapping had any real say in the

052c06b3-683c-4d15-852e-2a997b590001-2
01:04:00.071 --> 01:04:02.679
design of the offset.

69d98a11-858c-452c-8277-806470f41a0a-0
01:04:04.440 --> 01:04:04.920
Okay.

6f5fdd61-0829-4a8f-9e72-9368fd784dd0-0
01:04:06.560 --> 01:04:08.240
Yeah, I was curious about that
as well.

2c96e10e-2977-4691-ba46-1881be997471-0
01:04:08.360 --> 01:04:09.000
Oh, sorry, Mike.

8920a5e4-6724-4d3b-b052-3a7af17548fb-0
01:04:09.680 --> 01:04:12.732
I was going to say this worries
me because if we get better at

8920a5e4-6724-4d3b-b052-3a7af17548fb-1
01:04:12.732 --> 01:04:15.737
our understanding of what we
might forecast, that means we're

8920a5e4-6724-4d3b-b052-3a7af17548fb-2
01:04:15.737 --> 01:04:18.160
more likely to have the
real value ignored.

072be5e8-0e3c-4c2b-80e3-51a24a418622-0
01:04:19.960 --> 01:04:27.105
[noise]
Alyesco was you know just a

072be5e8-0e3c-4c2b-80e3-51a24a418622-1
01:04:27.105 --> 01:04:33.916
world unto itself and why they thought they

072be5e8-0e3c-4c2b-80e3-51a24a418622-2
01:04:33.916 --> 01:04:40.280
could only designed for
a little over 6 m.,

3388252c-b561-4bce-b49b-437b74140601-0
01:04:41.720 --> 01:04:45.234
I don't know, but that's a good
question and I think that's

3388252c-b561-4bce-b49b-437b74140601-1
01:04:45.234 --> 01:04:48.691
something maybe I will spend a
little bit of time trying to

3388252c-b561-4bce-b49b-437b74140601-2
01:04:48.691 --> 01:04:49.440
follow up on.

ffce725e-fce0-41a8-8148-f7f6904084a6-0
01:04:49.760 --> 01:04:51.720
When I do, I'll let everybody know.

3813fadb-e06f-48f5-ba73-715fe7a711b0-0
01:04:51.720 --> 01:04:57.339
You know Dave if I may ask
were those estimates of mean

3813fadb-e06f-48f5-ba73-715fe7a711b0-1
01:04:57.339 --> 01:04:59.760
or medium or an upper bound.

a6c37eb6-4985-444c-9d4c-789eddb30f25-0
01:05:00.560 --> 01:05:02.600
It was 

88f2c4e9-64ab-4575-868e-216b2d8357b2-0
01:05:02.800 --> 01:05:03.680
a number.

3c705e1a-1224-4f99-b3e9-a66937bb6c82-0
01:05:03.760 --> 01:05:09.187
You know there were just
no real uncertainties put on

3c705e1a-1224-4f99-b3e9-a66937bb6c82-1
01:05:09.187 --> 01:05:09.640
them.

da954a1e-919c-4f17-9155-8a8610b81a16-0
01:05:10.640 --> 01:05:16.736
You can imagine Burt and Lloyd
and Clarence sitting around and

da954a1e-919c-4f17-9155-8a8610b81a16-1
01:05:16.736 --> 01:05:21.961
saying, hey, you know these
other big faults 

da954a1e-919c-4f17-9155-8a8610b81a16-2
01:05:21.961 --> 01:05:23.800
ruptured 10 m.

784372a8-43c0-4c05-a53a-b338179c4e2b-0
01:05:23.880 --> 01:05:31.115
We'll use that as the
design and beyond that, I can't,

784372a8-43c0-4c05-a53a-b338179c4e2b-1
01:05:31.115 --> 01:05:33.800
go any further.

b76b51d8-15d5-4fa9-b739-c8aa0986661f-0
01:05:33.800 --> 01:05:36.320
There were no other
uncertainties.

90259cde-c91e-4aa9-97d9-9d478750a027-0
01:05:37.160 --> 01:05:42.220
It wasn't done the way
statistically you would develop

90259cde-c91e-4aa9-97d9-9d478750a027-1
01:05:42.220 --> 01:05:43.600
a design today.

8e3c543e-a8d8-4c50-88fc-45faf839f285-0
01:05:43.720 --> 01:05:47.360
And it was seat of the pants.

f88a4fc8-7ed6-4bd9-90d3-60904f006350-0
01:05:52.660 --> 01:05:52.900
Thank you.

03c33162-fa6d-4a53-b095-0dfd0a558e3f-0
01:05:54.380 --> 01:05:55.900
I see we have some raised hands.

642edce2-aa9a-4e99-8fc8-8eb3a9e574aa-0
01:05:56.500 --> 01:05:56.860
Yeah.

7b2228d0-011e-41e8-8a94-1c657cd89146-0
01:05:57.300 --> 01:06:00.716
I was just gonna note there's a
comment by Lori Dingler in the

7b2228d0-011e-41e8-8a94-1c657cd89146-1
01:06:00.716 --> 01:06:03.700
top that Lloyd Cluff did get
them to expand the zone.

81bc46d7-6bd3-42a7-8d88-3a9d9a6baaca-0
01:06:05.620 --> 01:06:11.840
So yeah, you know the we didn't
know where the fault was.

39374aec-44cf-4f2a-98c4-11f6bd6ef6a2-0
01:06:11.840 --> 01:06:16.636
And today there were any
number of subsurface techniques

39374aec-44cf-4f2a-98c4-11f6bd6ef6a2-1
01:06:16.636 --> 01:06:21.063
you could use to try and see
where the fault was under that

39374aec-44cf-4f2a-98c4-11f6bd6ef6a2-2
01:06:21.063 --> 01:06:23.720
relatively unconsolidated
material.

f33e644b-4a8f-4de7-bd5b-102c856784f5-0
01:06:25.080 --> 01:06:28.920
But at the time there was just a
lot of question marks.

e52c96a1-1288-48dc-85ff-f5844fe3800e-0
01:06:28.920 --> 01:06:33.151
And I will say that one thing
that was not known at the time,

e52c96a1-1288-48dc-85ff-f5844fe3800e-1
01:06:33.151 --> 01:06:36.920
and I don't know how that would
have changed the design.

d4d9cd5b-6bbc-498c-a59c-791d5e52bf6d-0
01:06:37.600 --> 01:06:44.726
But in 1912 there was a large
earthquake South of the

d4d9cd5b-6bbc-498c-a59c-791d5e52bf6d-1
01:06:44.726 --> 01:06:52.979
Denali Range and Diane Dozer put
M7.3-M7.4 on it and suggested it was

d4d9cd5b-6bbc-498c-a59c-791d5e52bf6d-2
01:06:52.979 --> 01:06:55.480
on the Denali fault.

a5234bae-cff1-4c01-96aa-f21866d383b2-0
01:06:56.440 --> 01:07:02.039
After the 2002 earthquake, Gary
Carver spent time looking at

a5234bae-cff1-4c01-96aa-f21866d383b2-1
01:07:02.039 --> 01:07:07.731
trees along the location of the
fault in the soft alluvium 

a5234bae-cff1-4c01-96aa-f21866d383b2-2
01:07:07.731 --> 01:07:09.200
to the west.

9ba955b0-74ad-4f94-bdc4-17ed71e5d697-0
01:07:10.000 --> 01:07:12.160
And some of the trees were
split.

cdc63f09-7499-4769-8066-fbade5b6b58d-0
01:07:12.960 --> 01:07:17.727
And he noticed that in those
trees there was evidence of a

cdc63f09-7499-4769-8066-fbade5b6b58d-1
01:07:17.727 --> 01:07:22.494
prior damage and the
trees were cored and they were

cdc63f09-7499-4769-8066-fbade5b6b58d-2
01:07:22.494 --> 01:07:25.080
dated and they came out in 1912.

ab50eb0d-8795-4445-ad63-4d059e4048d1-0
01:07:25.480 --> 01:07:30.061
So we didn't know at the time
that there had been a large

ab50eb0d-8795-4445-ad63-4d059e4048d1-1
01:07:30.061 --> 01:07:34.485
earthquake that probably
extended under the pipeline in

ab50eb0d-8795-4445-ad63-4d059e4048d1-2
01:07:34.485 --> 01:07:34.880
1912.

1fe52483-eb29-4203-a9d0-5f414bbfe29e-0
01:07:34.880 --> 01:07:40.222
How that would have changed the
design, I don't know, but there

1fe52483-eb29-4203-a9d0-5f414bbfe29e-1
01:07:40.222 --> 01:07:45.647
really were, there were a lot of
data that were not available at

1fe52483-eb29-4203-a9d0-5f414bbfe29e-2
01:07:45.647 --> 01:07:50.822
the time that the pipeline was
constructed and the design was

1fe52483-eb29-4203-a9d0-5f414bbfe29e-3
01:07:50.822 --> 01:07:51.239
made.

f97a82aa-ce25-4195-a23f-e968dbe87cf7-0
01:07:52.120 --> 01:07:54.000
It was amazingly innovative 

1aba5170-0a37-4726-90e1-bcad58d79086-0
01:07:54.000 --> 01:07:59.413
design a pipeline that had never been
designed to slide back and forth

1aba5170-0a37-4726-90e1-bcad58d79086-1
01:07:59.413 --> 01:08:04.064
and you know, in the end, maybe
even if there was more

1aba5170-0a37-4726-90e1-bcad58d79086-2
01:08:04.064 --> 01:08:08.039
displacement, it would have been
accommodated.

95f3984b-a3e5-467e-ad88-7bcc377c46cb-0
01:08:08.840 --> 01:08:14.626
The pipe wasn't damaged, but 
the shoes that it was on, the

95f3984b-a3e5-467e-ad88-7bcc377c46cb-1
01:08:14.626 --> 01:08:20.320
teflon shoes, a few of those
almost came off the ends of

95f3984b-a3e5-467e-ad88-7bcc377c46cb-2
01:08:20.320 --> 01:08:22.000
the steel sliders.

749b6696-1921-4c1d-9842-d7f8636fe8e0-0
01:08:25.080 --> 01:08:30.697
And finally, I just say that
because the pipe was unbroken,

749b6696-1921-4c1d-9842-d7f8636fe8e0-1
01:08:30.697 --> 01:08:35.845
Alyeska reset it for its
original design configuration

749b6696-1921-4c1d-9842-d7f8636fe8e0-2
01:08:35.845 --> 01:08:42.024
with the idea that another large
event wouldn't occur for several

749b6696-1921-4c1d-9842-d7f8636fe8e0-3
01:08:42.024 --> 01:08:47.080
100 years and the pipe had a 50-
year design lifeline.

5d2b6521-b98b-4922-a484-1e9b8b0aae96-0
01:08:47.120 --> 01:08:52.000
So lot of serendipity
across the board.

871baef0-9d91-41ab-a113-3236ad5f87eb-0
01:08:54.720 --> 01:08:55.760
Thank you, David.

7eed9cc5-2048-4e37-ab38-15642a1bcdcb-0
01:08:59.080 --> 01:09:01.280
Let's see who is up next here.

8a1aa119-9842-4fad-a3b2-aa47ea458b84-0
01:09:01.760 --> 01:09:03.080
Laura, did you have a question?

484d1e46-b94a-4c26-aa9a-14d5cb6f9ab5-0
01:09:04.160 --> 01:09:09.847
Oh, I just wanted to comment
that I spent many hours talking

484d1e46-b94a-4c26-aa9a-14d5cb6f9ab5-1
01:09:09.847 --> 01:09:14.000
with Lloyd Cluff, oh probably
6-7 years ago, 

44271e0b-2e0f-4925-b8c3-22f3a8bbb24a-0
01:09:14.000 --> 01:09:15.480
and also Gary Carver.

d8628ad0-ed37-4abe-9829-b8b807400170-0
01:09:16.120 --> 01:09:21.979
And my understanding from Lloyd
was that it wasn't a yes or no,

d8628ad0-ed37-4abe-9829-b8b807400170-1
01:09:21.979 --> 01:09:27.747
it was an incremental discussion
and that Lloyd said they were

d8628ad0-ed37-4abe-9829-b8b807400170-2
01:09:27.747 --> 01:09:33.424
able to expand it particularly
to the north to the edge where

d8628ad0-ed37-4abe-9829-b8b807400170-3
01:09:33.424 --> 01:09:36.720
the displacement actually
occurred.

ccd22836-e250-42b7-ac69-66e548ccc932-0
01:09:37.040 --> 01:09:43.021
They didn't get everything they
wanted, but they did managed

ccd22836-e250-42b7-ac69-66e548ccc932-1
01:09:43.021 --> 01:09:47.040
to capture the part that
actually slipped.

8808df41-2217-4ce3-bde2-ac063132eb60-0
01:09:47.640 --> 01:09:51.459
That's just according to my
recollection of talking with

8808df41-2217-4ce3-bde2-ac063132eb60-1
01:09:51.459 --> 01:09:52.800
both Lloyd and Gary.

fbc601e7-c15e-4726-9f9c-2d7d10b90ec8-0
01:09:53.280 --> 01:09:57.394
Yeah, I would just say that the
because it was really uncertain

fbc601e7-c15e-4726-9f9c-2d7d10b90ec8-1
01:09:57.394 --> 01:09:58.680
where the fault was.

67094048-4721-4e3e-874e-056d9fc2327c-0
01:09:59.520 --> 01:10:05.198
As I said, a projection was made
from the west and that took into

67094048-4721-4e3e-874e-056d9fc2327c-1
01:10:05.198 --> 01:10:10.360
account the variation in the
strike of the fault itself.

84fd94de-1298-4720-8807-3914e19a2362-0
01:10:10.960 --> 01:10:19.450
And that 600m wide zone was
really based on uncertainty in

84fd94de-1298-4720-8807-3914e19a2362-1
01:10:19.450 --> 01:10:21.440
the projection.

ce871d35-17a9-4cde-8b56-32878812502d-0
01:10:21.720 --> 01:10:26.428
Now maybe behind closed doors
they had decided to, you know,

ce871d35-17a9-4cde-8b56-32878812502d-1
01:10:26.428 --> 01:10:27.200
expand it.

f8a3505e-5fc9-405c-b9d8-3b6ce5674f4a-0
01:10:28.840 --> 01:10:30.080
I just don't know.

04ed74fd-283b-49c9-88d9-c0e06b75f67b-0
01:10:30.080 --> 01:10:35.722
And unfortunately, Lloyd has
passed and we can't go back and

04ed74fd-283b-49c9-88d9-c0e06b75f67b-1
01:10:35.722 --> 01:10:37.480
ask him that again.

c0956034-ce95-42bc-b135-4a9f6b93fb08-0
01:10:37.480 --> 01:10:40.640
Although knowing Lloyd, he may
send an answer down.

79c6092f-dd0d-4dc3-9613-32400c82d8c4-0
01:10:45.400 --> 01:10:48.280
I say we have a few more
questions.

770cd476-9742-4ca6-ba86-17eca3eb3165-0
01:10:48.560 --> 01:10:50.200
People raised hands.

26a5ff72-0cfa-461a-a507-f8d23604b0bc-0
01:10:50.200 --> 01:10:53.732
I'm curious, just a question for
one of our other speakers just

26a5ff72-0cfa-461a-a507-f8d23604b0bc-1
01:10:53.732 --> 01:10:55.720
to sort of spread out the joy
here.

0d9b0854-84ce-4f99-82d2-27f96b6e3499-0
01:10:56.880 --> 01:11:00.801
Yeah, Gordon, you have a
question for somebody else or is

0d9b0854-84ce-4f99-82d2-27f96b6e3499-1
01:11:00.801 --> 01:11:02.560
it directed towards David?

d66c6ba7-e5cd-4143-a39f-cfa10cca5b2d-0
01:11:05.920 --> 01:11:07.000
I think he answered it.

781306fe-fe2f-4b65-bb3f-a752c13cb18e-0
01:11:08.520 --> 01:11:10.280
Okay. Charles.

d75f5649-9de3-4ef8-90a2-7e860974cd07-0
01:11:12.240 --> 01:11:12.440
Yeah.

c045efd9-7f03-4a4b-b625-93be9340a7a1-0
01:11:12.440 --> 01:11:17.025
I this is just a comment for Jon
Stewart. First of all, I want to

c045efd9-7f03-4a4b-b625-93be9340a7a1-1
01:11:17.025 --> 01:11:20.200
thank all the speaker's for a great
Session. Jon?

439a05ea-09c6-4e15-8d7b-d60deb85f134-0
01:11:20.280 --> 01:11:23.880
Do you emphasize the value of
reconnaissance to

026fdc4a-9ebf-46d9-9607-8b555ab27120-0
01:11:24.160 --> 01:11:25.600
young researchers?

9d231a5e-3505-4b9c-9b75-55963fe8d275-0
01:11:26.080 --> 01:11:29.000
I also just want to help like
that.

d519fc6d-f6dd-477e-97f7-565f43e58c94-0
01:11:30.520 --> 01:11:36.274
Young practitioners and all the
engineering firms went out of

d519fc6d-f6dd-477e-97f7-565f43e58c94-1
01:11:36.274 --> 01:11:40.080
each league, also dating gold
and so on.

0e31331f-ebdb-46d9-a34c-6e53c2acdc0f-0
01:11:41.080 --> 01:11:42.520
I'm among all firms.

71076ea6-614b-4209-a32e-b9f932476cc9-0
01:11:42.520 --> 01:11:47.750
I've always sent the younger
engineers out when events occur

71076ea6-614b-4209-a32e-b9f932476cc9-1
01:11:47.750 --> 01:11:52.980
because it has a tremendous
impact on their understanding of

71076ea6-614b-4209-a32e-b9f932476cc9-2
01:11:52.980 --> 01:11:58.039
important seismic design, and
this point is worth making

71076ea6-614b-4209-a32e-b9f932476cc9-3
01:11:58.039 --> 01:11:58.640
across.

0b3848df-5ec4-439a-b6c4-5d6d1175f6c7-0
01:11:59.720 --> 01:12:03.080
Many of the reconnaissance
efforts are led by academic.

e25bfc98-e9a2-428b-8c14-017ed0654cbb-0
01:12:03.080 --> 01:12:11.652
It's important that they also
bring along their [indiscernible] and

e25bfc98-e9a2-428b-8c14-017ed0654cbb-1
01:12:11.652 --> 01:12:20.521
practitioners and continue
their education after the

e25bfc98-e9a2-428b-8c14-017ed0654cbb-2
01:12:20.521 --> 01:12:29.241
graduation of the classroom.
Thank you. Perry, turn your

e25bfc98-e9a2-428b-8c14-017ed0654cbb-3
01:12:29.241 --> 01:12:30.720
camera on.

e3307a38-f207-497b-baaa-aaff9d12b59e-0
01:12:31.520 --> 01:12:33.320
Oh yeah, I think, Oh, is it on?

2ba66a1d-74f5-4c0c-baa5-d038d2fe7e7b-0
01:12:33.920 --> 01:12:34.600
Is it on now?

0e68ec9c-f4f1-4a0a-bf1a-c6f6a482741f-0
01:12:34.600 --> 01:12:37.120
Oh, Okay. Whoops, A little bit.

132e743b-138a-4344-9cc6-87930eb26285-0
01:12:39.120 --> 01:12:39.680
Sorry about that.

1f458320-cea0-4b0a-ab52-c525e192e999-0
01:12:41.440 --> 01:12:45.491
I'm not sure who among the group
could answer it, but I'm hoping

1f458320-cea0-4b0a-ab52-c525e192e999-1
01:12:45.491 --> 01:12:48.920
this is a wide enough swath,
both yesterday and today.

4d9ec6c3-b6c9-4290-b1b9-153ff8d1a58b-0
01:12:48.920 --> 01:12:53.522
I'm back to the fires again,
because they seem to have such a

4d9ec6c3-b6c9-4290-b1b9-153ff8d1a58b-1
01:12:53.522 --> 01:12:54.880
tremendous impact.

dc9977bb-7fbd-44c6-abe5-dc66085d0b6e-0
01:12:54.880 --> 01:12:58.141
And if you're gonna be saving, I
don't know it just seems like a

dc9977bb-7fbd-44c6-abe5-dc66085d0b6e-1
01:12:58.141 --> 01:13:00.800
tremendous way to maybe do
something about all this.

df68ec68-4eee-4d89-bccf-c3f301bbaed6-0
01:13:01.520 --> 01:13:07.469
So what I what I was wondering
was, is anyone aware of any

df68ec68-4eee-4d89-bccf-c3f301bbaed6-1
01:13:07.469 --> 01:13:08.680
plans to go.

79960600-31e0-4549-8f4d-364e3842383e-0
01:13:08.880 --> 01:13:12.531
I mean one of Carl's main
suggestions was to have

79960600-31e0-4549-8f4d-364e3842383e-1
01:13:12.531 --> 01:13:17.132
automatic cut-off valves 
for the gas perhaps PG&E 

79960600-31e0-4549-8f4d-364e3842383e-2
01:13:17.132 --> 01:13:21.222
has a representative onboard here or if
anyone has any industrial

79960600-31e0-4549-8f4d-364e3842383e-3
01:13:21.222 --> 01:13:23.559
connections or has been talking.

4b127290-be0f-4f65-8630-31caa13edfac-0
01:13:23.960 --> 01:13:27.277
Are there plans to sort of think
about this and address 

4b127290-be0f-4f65-8630-31caa13edfac-1
01:13:27.277 --> 01:13:30.380
some of those top two
mitigation issues and I guess

4b127290-be0f-4f65-8630-31caa13edfac-2
01:13:30.380 --> 01:13:33.377
the other one was the water but
it seems to me that the

4b127290-be0f-4f65-8630-31caa13edfac-3
01:13:33.377 --> 01:13:36.319
automatic shut off could be
particularly valuable.

6e0d65a3-06eb-4216-a5a4-13e68bff39f1-0
01:13:36.960 --> 01:13:41.090
Yeah anyway. If there's some
one from PG&E here they

6e0d65a3-06eb-4216-a5a4-13e68bff39f1-1
01:13:41.090 --> 01:13:45.640
should respond to that otherwise
I can respond. Yeah this is

6e0d65a3-06eb-4216-a5a4-13e68bff39f1-2
01:13:45.640 --> 01:13:48.160
Jeff Bachhuber, I'll jump in on
that.

f85962af-a3f4-4c9b-9737-e1e5246d4e18-0
01:13:48.160 --> 01:13:52.346
We do have automatic shut-off
valves at regular intervals on

f85962af-a3f4-4c9b-9737-e1e5246d4e18-1
01:13:52.346 --> 01:13:54.200
our gas transmission lines.

3b8c7bfe-eaaf-4d53-b729-a0259c57d310-0
01:13:56.080 --> 01:13:59.720
One thing we're looking at
because we keep getting asked

3b8c7bfe-eaaf-4d53-b729-a0259c57d310-1
01:13:59.720 --> 01:14:03.425
about is integrating
earthquake early warning to shut-

3b8c7bfe-eaaf-4d53-b729-a0259c57d310-2
01:14:03.425 --> 01:14:04.400
off the gas systems.

bf9a507d-78db-4952-97c6-80e630f3d2b3-0
01:14:05.360 --> 01:14:10.252
But it's important not to have
false positives because when we

bf9a507d-78db-4952-97c6-80e630f3d2b3-1
01:14:10.252 --> 01:14:14.756
shut-off parts of our gas
system, it's a major effort for

bf9a507d-78db-4952-97c6-80e630f3d2b3-2
01:14:14.756 --> 01:14:18.640
gas and line inspections and
relighting and such.

7253589f-578f-4738-aa5f-a9c078c7c675-0
01:14:19.560 --> 01:14:23.292
So when we do need to have
control that's 

7253589f-578f-4738-aa5f-a9c078c7c675-1
01:14:23.292 --> 01:14:27.518
automatically tripped, it's
better to have a seismograph at

7253589f-578f-4738-aa5f-a9c078c7c675-2
01:14:27.518 --> 01:14:31.462
that control location and then
set a trigger, 

7253589f-578f-4738-aa5f-a9c078c7c675-3
01:14:31.462 --> 01:14:34.280
appropriate for the engineering
design.

95b4f387-31c5-4f07-9abb-34a1451c0e19-0
01:14:35.240 --> 01:14:39.040
For our distribution system, we
do have cut-off valves.

b9611fd8-59f7-4e1c-8ace-7142f89d6d42-0
01:14:39.040 --> 01:14:42.978
A lot of them are still manual,
but on the transmission lines we

b9611fd8-59f7-4e1c-8ace-7142f89d6d42-1
01:14:42.978 --> 01:14:46.917
do have automated shut offs and
they're typically triggered by a

b9611fd8-59f7-4e1c-8ace-7142f89d6d42-2
01:14:46.917 --> 01:14:50.674
drop in the flow velocity or an
increase in the flow velocity

b9611fd8-59f7-4e1c-8ace-7142f89d6d42-3
01:14:50.674 --> 01:14:51.280
recording.

4fc331e6-9fb2-4d85-84e9-763ee1eb8ff9-0
01:14:51.280 --> 01:14:57.400
You actually have damage and a
rupture or a split in the pipe.

942a954c-97aa-43cd-8eb7-4de7438f0136-0
01:14:57.760 --> 01:14:59.080
And so it's a positive way.

8d93d8e0-12c7-45f3-a1e4-895bcba63987-0
01:14:59.080 --> 01:15:01.040
Yeah, we had damage and it shuts
it off.

1152dc83-fe01-4105-a628-2fd5a64f6585-0
01:15:04.280 --> 01:15:04.760
Thank you.

0fd533be-8df4-4730-9a41-671f8dfbf52b-0
01:15:04.920 --> 01:15:06.520
Thanks so much for your answer.

63a05ffc-8f27-4690-958b-07577f92bba2-0
01:15:06.960 --> 01:15:13.120
Charlie, go ahead if I may.

0175018b-f77d-495f-90bc-e722dedf0550-0
01:15:13.240 --> 01:15:21.960
Charlie you might turn
off your video,

afddc90e-01c4-4541-af7f-b1bc0296aa5d-0
01:15:21.960 --> 01:15:23.800
we're having trouble hearing
you.

3d998c67-09b2-48c1-8f0a-19e4c736917b-0
01:15:26.040 --> 01:15:26.320
Let me.

dd693c24-f382-4951-8ba2-650114e2df5f-0
01:15:28.320 --> 01:15:29.320
Sorry, just a second.

9b3edb8d-f6e9-47d2-8e7b-ef9716392f4f-0
01:15:30.200 --> 01:15:30.560
Okay.

217a2ac1-74d4-4c02-9c1b-7da589b20c5b-0
01:15:31.040 --> 01:15:33.880
Can you hear me better now, I
hope. Yeah, much better.

428c67e2-d3ca-4fd3-b5db-67d56126ce53-0
01:15:34.680 --> 01:15:34.960
Okay.

282f0f2e-4cd2-4bde-a8d4-01b45ce5b9c0-0
01:15:34.960 --> 01:15:35.240
Thank you.

d03208d3-0440-46c6-b6a8-562b4d790b53-0
01:15:36.400 --> 01:15:37.360
Much better.

f7a6e747-466b-4b74-b11f-6a48733bc9d1-0
01:15:37.360 --> 01:15:38.600
[noise]

31afec8f-3b0a-4268-8752-c51b63e12cb8-0
01:15:38.600 --> 01:15:40.920
Let me just speak to Jeff's
points.

4b58b057-3853-44f7-970c-365573af8093-0
01:15:40.960 --> 01:15:44.249
The shut offs in the
transmission lines are spaced

4b58b057-3853-44f7-970c-365573af8093-1
01:15:44.249 --> 01:15:47.990
many kilometers apart and as we
saw in the 2010 San Bruno

4b58b057-3853-44f7-970c-365573af8093-2
01:15:47.990 --> 01:15:52.054
explosion, the residual pressure
will continue to feed a flare

4b58b057-3853-44f7-970c-365573af8093-3
01:15:52.054 --> 01:15:53.279
for hours.

58ce15b3-69d5-4f08-9c57-04a84ac12bdc-0
01:15:54.560 --> 01:15:58.663
As he pointed out the
distribution system shut offs

58ce15b3-69d5-4f08-9c57-04a84ac12bdc-1
01:15:58.663 --> 01:16:03.280
there are about maybe
a dozen or 20 in San Francisco

58ce15b3-69d5-4f08-9c57-04a84ac12bdc-2
01:16:03.280 --> 01:16:04.160
for example.

3c046039-cd26-4f80-8822-f16683a5c07a-0
01:16:04.520 --> 01:16:09.595
They are manual and we
saw in 1984 puncture of a

3c046039-cd26-4f80-8822-f16683a5c07a-1
01:16:09.595 --> 01:16:15.205
distribution line in downtown
San Francisco near Embarcador

3c046039-cd26-4f80-8822-f16683a5c07a-2
01:16:15.205 --> 01:16:20.815
Center that valve was paved
over and it took them over an

3c046039-cd26-4f80-8822-f16683a5c07a-3
01:16:20.815 --> 01:16:22.239
hour to find it.

9a11f302-ae57-4989-b61f-be05505ee9c0-0
01:16:22.880 --> 01:16:26.271
So the ability to
control the system after an

9a11f302-ae57-4989-b61f-be05505ee9c0-1
01:16:26.271 --> 01:16:28.800
earthquake is actually quite
inadequate.

2eb0d360-4fb6-4237-93cf-0c10acc10e1f-0
01:16:30.600 --> 01:16:34.465
Now it's my understanding and
Jeff might comment on this that

2eb0d360-4fb6-4237-93cf-0c10acc10e1f-1
01:16:34.465 --> 01:16:38.205
I do know that previously
PG&E replaced all their gas

2eb0d360-4fb6-4237-93cf-0c10acc10e1f-2
01:16:38.205 --> 01:16:42.070
meters with smart meters but
without including a seismic shut

2eb0d360-4fb6-4237-93cf-0c10acc10e1f-3
01:16:42.070 --> 01:16:42.320
off.

a413fae5-4642-470d-abe1-8597a5b9c18d-0
01:16:42.560 --> 01:16:46.347
They now have a pilot
program I believe to examine the

a413fae5-4642-470d-abe1-8597a5b9c18d-1
01:16:46.347 --> 01:16:50.200
efficacy of including a seismic
shut off in the gas meters,

60704577-7c6a-4612-be5c-09d9f6de9698-0
01:16:51.680 --> 01:16:53.680
but it's a very small power
program.

6ca6008f-b321-40fa-9b27-db13ea75a9ad-0
01:16:55.040 --> 01:16:59.894
I just was involved in an effort
in British Columbia to try and

6ca6008f-b321-40fa-9b27-db13ea75a9ad-1
01:16:59.894 --> 01:17:04.294
get the Canadian
insurance industry to try to get

6ca6008f-b321-40fa-9b27-db13ea75a9ad-2
01:17:04.294 --> 01:17:09.149
the gas utility there to
include a seismic gas shut off

6ca6008f-b321-40fa-9b27-db13ea75a9ad-3
01:17:09.149 --> 01:17:09.680
device.

968e5e82-92e2-425e-aaa9-1c421a8084a3-0
01:17:09.680 --> 01:17:13.421
A seismic device in their gas
meters which they were going to

968e5e82-92e2-425e-aaa9-1c421a8084a3-1
01:17:13.421 --> 01:17:17.162
replace wholesale, which they
are replacing wholesale for the

968e5e82-92e2-425e-aaa9-1c421a8084a3-2
01:17:17.162 --> 01:17:21.084
same smart meter elimination of
the meter reader job purpose and

968e5e82-92e2-425e-aaa9-1c421a8084a3-3
01:17:21.084 --> 01:17:23.919
they fought that tooth and nail
and we failed.

a419eddc-b14f-45cc-8974-7050b1584a3b-0
01:17:24.760 --> 01:17:30.195
On the other hand in
Japan as Jeff knows well Tokyo

a419eddc-b14f-45cc-8974-7050b1584a3b-1
01:17:30.195 --> 01:17:35.803
has 12,000 seismometer connected
automatic shut off devices that

a419eddc-b14f-45cc-8974-7050b1584a3b-2
01:17:35.803 --> 01:17:41.238
in their grid within the city
that isolate the brakes within a

a419eddc-b14f-45cc-8974-7050b1584a3b-3
01:17:41.238 --> 01:17:42.359
block or two.

218571b5-761f-4c2e-893d-2534b3f974f6-0
01:17:42.920 --> 01:17:46.776
And every customer in
Japan about 20 million people

218571b5-761f-4c2e-893d-2534b3f974f6-1
01:17:46.776 --> 01:17:50.240
has a seismic device
incorporated in the gas heater.

fa74f6fe-ec2d-48eb-a740-018481b66f16-0
01:17:50.240 --> 01:17:52.200
These were all switched out
following Kobe earthquake.

8698d9da-1ed0-45b3-9cff-2955634df6b2-0
01:17:52.960 --> 01:17:56.189
So just like an early earthquake
warning has been implemented 10

8698d9da-1ed0-45b3-9cff-2955634df6b2-1
01:17:56.189 --> 01:17:59.368
years earlier in Japan, actually
15 years earlier in Japan than

8698d9da-1ed0-45b3-9cff-2955634df6b2-2
01:17:59.368 --> 01:18:00.760
it has in the United States.

7fdbc21b-cfd2-4efa-b952-b5890de6716b-0
01:18:01.200 --> 01:18:04.693
The safety for gas systems in
Japan is decades ahead of what

7fdbc21b-cfd2-4efa-b952-b5890de6716b-1
01:18:04.693 --> 01:18:06.240
it is in the United States.

24f9f65b-05e7-4432-ba7e-674e87b57962-0
01:18:08.800 --> 01:18:09.120
Yeah.

5db122fc-60db-4e20-8601-426b438c420f-0
01:18:09.120 --> 01:18:09.560
Jeff.

c234483f-d4d8-4a9b-8b67-8ce167c320ba-0
01:18:09.960 --> 01:18:14.720
Yeah, the Japanese definitely
are on the cutting edge there.

4b8b78ed-4934-4dd9-869b-d50d0375f677-0
01:18:15.320 --> 01:18:19.427
A lot of the damage to gas
pipelines occurs on the service

4b8b78ed-4934-4dd9-869b-d50d0375f677-1
01:18:19.427 --> 01:18:22.560
line, so on the customer side of
the meters.

e6cb3d03-dbf4-456b-8c15-1a122b3f8d5f-0
01:18:22.800 --> 01:18:25.486
So I saw in the chat that
mentioned that some folks have

e6cb3d03-dbf4-456b-8c15-1a122b3f8d5f-1
01:18:25.486 --> 01:18:26.240
installed those.

003e1b22-c5b9-4a7e-82a6-8572e0c0c537-0
01:18:26.240 --> 01:18:27.880
I actually have one on my house
too.

7653f4b3-b3ea-4f28-83f3-02b084bff231-0
01:18:28.840 --> 01:18:32.740
And so you know, right after the
meter, it's a ball valve that

7653f4b3-b3ea-4f28-83f3-02b084bff231-1
01:18:32.740 --> 01:18:34.040
typically drops down.

06d8af27-7fb5-4b91-a1bc-30cede567703-0
01:18:34.040 --> 01:18:35.160
Those are really cheap.

7dc062f9-ee08-4559-bb4a-7ffa9e7e2b47-0
01:18:35.800 --> 01:18:39.654
That's a good way for customers
to have some level of protection

7dc062f9-ee08-4559-bb4a-7ffa9e7e2b47-1
01:18:39.654 --> 01:18:43.271
feeding right into their house
where it probably is the most

7dc062f9-ee08-4559-bb4a-7ffa9e7e2b47-2
01:18:43.271 --> 01:18:45.880
vulnerable part of the gas
pipeline system.

edbc9e43-3f49-42f8-ad66-b200f7aaa368-0
01:18:47.600 --> 01:18:51.020
Actually, Jeff, there's the most
inefficient way to mitigate this

edbc9e43-3f49-42f8-ad66-b200f7aaa368-1
01:18:51.020 --> 01:18:51.280
risk.

4777151c-72c7-4244-a4a9-71b4bbd09185-0
01:18:51.520 --> 01:18:51.840
Yes.

036d9a30-b106-4947-8621-5c1ee7706f08-0
01:18:52.840 --> 01:18:52.960
Yeah.

17b8f065-93db-44a0-9e71-8175ffbf2d96-0
01:18:52.960 --> 01:18:55.400
I just want to move us on just
because we're running out of time.

5fff7f45-45cc-4537-b53c-e8b3b84d4e76-0
01:18:55.440 --> 01:18:56.000
Well, if I can.

5e76984c-9b13-41a4-b122-eb10e0bbd434-0
01:18:56.000 --> 01:18:58.480
All right, fine.

1c72aafd-4e06-4ce8-a0a3-8f8f98243523-0
01:18:58.520 --> 01:19:00.040
So I can think.

d573f909-a83e-47d9-be5b-dd8c024732b7-0
01:19:00.040 --> 01:19:03.026
Let me add one thing to
that, which is Japan has

d573f909-a83e-47d9-be5b-dd8c024732b7-1
01:19:03.026 --> 01:19:04.360
mandatory cut off valves;

858bbc00-f2de-4ce1-a8cb-3cc8b4b8352c-0
01:19:04.400 --> 01:19:05.280
they still have fires.

62f7481e-ffe3-4a0d-b719-fd1ca903dc8b-0
01:19:05.280 --> 01:19:09.786
So it's not the only source of
fires. Yeah that's

62f7481e-ffe3-4a0d-b719-fd1ca903dc8b-1
01:19:09.786 --> 01:19:12.040
yet another challenge.

ff70bf4a-9f66-4244-8a9f-527a420367b6-0
01:19:15.000 --> 01:19:15.360
Absolutely.

c421b51b-7cde-440b-8aec-c1c34501cb7c-0
01:19:15.480 --> 01:19:20.262
I'd like to ask the question of
both Bob and Dave Shelley about

c421b51b-7cde-440b-8aec-c1c34501cb7c-1
01:19:20.262 --> 01:19:22.280
the 1992 earthquake.

0bfef1a8-0727-4a9b-87d1-5c3a71ff073e-0
01:19:22.800 --> 01:19:26.256
Do you think we had the more
modern observations that of the

0bfef1a8-0727-4a9b-87d1-5c3a71ff073e-1
01:19:26.256 --> 01:19:29.826
quake happened now that Bob you
might reinterpret what's going

0bfef1a8-0727-4a9b-87d1-5c3a71ff073e-2
01:19:29.826 --> 01:19:33.226
on about what faults were just
lit up by aftershocks versus

0bfef1a8-0727-4a9b-87d1-5c3a71ff073e-3
01:19:33.226 --> 01:19:35.040
maybe was a multi-fault rupture?

e0dfdf2f-f57a-489a-bf0d-e85e1fca4c1c-0
01:19:37.680 --> 01:19:38.800
That's a good question.

54d4733b-14ff-460e-943d-4e7fbed4aa19-0
01:19:39.400 --> 01:19:45.364
I think in 1992 when we're
going from analog to broadband,

54d4733b-14ff-460e-943d-4e7fbed4aa19-1
01:19:45.364 --> 01:19:51.139
you know of course there was no
continuous GPS and so it was

54d4733b-14ff-460e-943d-4e7fbed4aa19-2
01:19:51.139 --> 01:19:56.535
campaign GPS that actually came
up with a slip plane that

54d4733b-14ff-460e-943d-4e7fbed4aa19-3
01:19:56.535 --> 01:20:02.499
corroborated with the hypocenter
locations and then you add to

54d4733b-14ff-460e-943d-4e7fbed4aa19-4
01:20:02.499 --> 01:20:03.919
That field 

f5f25009-167a-4858-aa6b-2b2d25faf7ee-0
01:20:04.960 --> 01:20:08.647
observations of strong shaking
at the nose, of the hanging

f5f25009-167a-4858-aa6b-2b2d25faf7ee-1
01:20:08.647 --> 01:20:08.960
wall.

eedcfefe-18d0-4a94-a9b3-f274143cc1c3-0
01:20:09.400 --> 01:20:13.422
You put all those together and
it's fairly confident of the

eedcfefe-18d0-4a94-a9b3-f274143cc1c3-1
01:20:13.422 --> 01:20:14.160
slip plane.

a49e975e-8309-4518-8f5b-8704b90ae112-0
01:20:16.040 --> 01:20:21.587
So, yeah, now with David doing
his wave led locations and such,

a49e975e-8309-4518-8f5b-8704b90ae112-1
01:20:21.587 --> 01:20:26.077
I don't think there's any
problem now with the new

a49e975e-8309-4518-8f5b-8704b90ae112-2
01:20:26.077 --> 01:20:30.480
coverage and the earthquake
early warning system.

fd4d3a30-6492-4563-976b-b4b2cb436d97-0
01:20:30.480 --> 01:20:34.920
And we're instrumented now a
continuous GPS.

9330e6b3-22c3-4b27-a800-9b25505ea56a-0
01:20:34.920 --> 01:20:41.218
And you saw Dave's work, you
know, interesting, I wanted to

9330e6b3-22c3-4b27-a800-9b25505ea56a-1
01:20:41.218 --> 01:20:47.307
make a comment, I've written
some posters on our offshore

9330e6b3-22c3-4b27-a800-9b25505ea56a-2
01:20:47.307 --> 01:20:53.606
earthquakes and so we had 2005,
2010, 2014, and all of those

9330e6b3-22c3-4b27-a800-9b25505ea56a-3
01:20:53.606 --> 01:20:59.800
earthquakes moved the GPS
stations on the surface of North

9330e6b3-22c3-4b27-a800-9b25505ea56a-4
01:20:59.800 --> 01:21:00.639
America.

4f024c7b-65d8-4dee-b74c-5912dca2c02a-0
01:21:00.960 --> 01:21:04.957
So those are offshore
earthquakes and they move

4f024c7b-65d8-4dee-b74c-5912dca2c02a-1
01:21:04.957 --> 01:21:08.880
the stations through the
megathrust through the surface.

6ee95ade-92c8-4897-a25e-2d74ecf4c0d6-0
01:21:10.440 --> 01:21:15.191
And then you have what Dave just
saw or documented that we

6ee95ade-92c8-4897-a25e-2d74ecf4c0d6-1
01:21:15.191 --> 01:21:18.829
have triggering on the
megathrust, which doesn't

6ee95ade-92c8-4897-a25e-2d74ecf4c0d6-2
01:21:18.829 --> 01:21:20.240
surprise me at all.

da24a133-c0a9-474f-8b3c-8118dcf0cf1f-0
01:21:22.120 --> 01:21:26.494
I think the big question of the
triggering of the Cascadia was

da24a133-c0a9-474f-8b3c-8118dcf0cf1f-1
01:21:26.494 --> 01:21:30.800
written by Goldfinger and his
people about the 1906 triggers of

02cb49e6-9709-43b8-9b88-5b8830c2c3ef-0
01:21:31.280 --> 01:21:37.044
the Cascadia, you know where
where you have a 8m slip coming

02cb49e6-9709-43b8-9b88-5b8830c2c3ef-1
01:21:37.044 --> 01:21:43.092
up through Shelter Cove and then
the Coulomb stress projections

02cb49e6-9709-43b8-9b88-5b8830c2c3ef-2
01:21:43.092 --> 01:21:47.440
onto the surface initiate a
megathrust event.

f37f3e34-a0eb-4fed-b6df-cdf1cf40e6c1-0
01:21:47.440 --> 01:21:51.412
Dave could probably talk more on
that, but I think these

f37f3e34-a0eb-4fed-b6df-cdf1cf40e6c1-1
01:21:51.412 --> 01:21:55.384
intraplate earthquakes, it 
doesn't surprise me at all

f37f3e34-a0eb-4fed-b6df-cdf1cf40e6c1-2
01:21:55.384 --> 01:21:59.565
because basically a little
triangular piece moved under the

f37f3e34-a0eb-4fed-b6df-cdf1cf40e6c1-3
01:21:59.565 --> 01:22:00.680
subduction zone.

290db775-c064-4e05-9cd1-71e288d98444-0
01:22:00.680 --> 01:22:04.840
So that doesn't surprise me,
what Dave just documented.

ae3b248c-ca9b-496b-9f3c-bc6c93095398-0
01:22:08.520 --> 01:22:11.559
Dave, do you think that
earthquake would look more

ae3b248c-ca9b-496b-9f3c-bc6c93095398-1
01:22:11.559 --> 01:22:14.360
complex from 1992 if we had 2022
observations?

631bcdc5-cc5a-4df2-bb6e-28b7ee1b39cd-0
01:22:14.840 --> 01:22:17.995
Yeah, I'm sure it would, but
it's complex enough even

631bcdc5-cc5a-4df2-bb6e-28b7ee1b39cd-1
01:22:17.995 --> 01:22:19.440
with the 1992 observations.

768bf10b-800f-44a3-b96a-0892d859329d-0
01:22:19.560 --> 01:22:22.680
So we would of course love to
have more data for that.

b1aa0d97-4c8a-49ce-8fbf-d9ac3649168d-0
01:22:22.680 --> 01:22:25.939
But you know, Mendocino is just,
a highly active area and

b1aa0d97-4c8a-49ce-8fbf-d9ac3649168d-1
01:22:25.939 --> 01:22:27.440
it's a really complicated area.

d7c91b8a-b848-4610-b973-191d752d87be-0
01:22:27.440 --> 01:22:30.627
So it seems like the kind of
place where we can look over a

d7c91b8a-b848-4610-b973-191d752d87be-1
01:22:30.627 --> 01:22:33.761
relatively short period of time
and kind of get an idea of

d7c91b8a-b848-4610-b973-191d752d87be-2
01:22:33.761 --> 01:22:36.948
scenarios that may happen that
we might not have thought of

d7c91b8a-b848-4610-b973-191d752d87be-3
01:22:36.948 --> 01:22:37.480
otherwise.

f1c5bd2a-6c9f-4105-816c-58e81d621281-0
01:22:37.920 --> 01:22:42.738
You know, just another comment
is the 2022 which we also have a

f1c5bd2a-6c9f-4105-816c-58e81d621281-1
01:22:42.738 --> 01:22:44.320
paper in the process.

0da3e641-ad25-4553-b7cf-2cf16ed48fa1-0
01:22:45.320 --> 01:22:49.509
It initiated the Mendocino fault. It 
initiated the wedge above

0da3e641-ad25-4553-b7cf-2cf16ed48fa1-1
01:22:49.509 --> 01:22:50.840
the Mendocino fault.

3f5185c1-6fbf-435e-babf-8f4d8b681a71-0
01:22:51.160 --> 01:22:54.970
It initiated some of the
right-lateral, these new

3f5185c1-6fbf-435e-babf-8f4d8b681a71-1
01:22:54.970 --> 01:22:59.001
right-lateral that are cutting
across. So these earthquakes

3f5185c1-6fbf-435e-babf-8f4d8b681a71-2
01:22:59.001 --> 01:23:01.640
initiate many features in the
area.

aebba5fc-53ca-497a-a178-6ed79222e03d-0
01:23:05.040 --> 01:23:10.000
It is complicated.

2c0d717f-3914-4bc8-be7f-24b38c34706d-0
01:23:11.120 --> 01:23:11.840
Thank you Bob.

83fe2f49-9a75-40c4-8109-3c426471ac1a-0
01:23:12.080 --> 01:23:13.760
I wanted to give 

dc48d29b-d79a-400c-9983-c6b141cf478e-0
01:23:15.720 --> 01:23:20.427
Anne and Sarah a chance and

dc48d29b-d79a-400c-9983-c6b141cf478e-1
01:23:20.427 --> 01:23:24.400
for folks to ask a question if
they have one, 

2055c50e-de72-46e9-b1ee-2aa566e77952-0
01:23:24.760 --> 01:23:28.472
as well as Susan. I
wanted to ask in particular

2055c50e-de72-46e9-b1ee-2aa566e77952-1
01:23:28.472 --> 01:23:32.122
your work with the HayWired
scenario especially the follow-

2055c50e-de72-46e9-b1ee-2aa566e77952-2
01:23:32.122 --> 01:23:35.401
on work whether emergency
managers in particular are

2055c50e-de72-46e9-b1ee-2aa566e77952-3
01:23:35.401 --> 01:23:37.320
thinking more about aftershocks.

9c8fd73d-c983-4c63-9025-5b6494704d9b-0
01:23:37.480 --> 01:23:40.828
I know when we started the
HayWired work back in the mid-

9c8fd73d-c983-4c63-9025-5b6494704d9b-1
01:23:40.828 --> 01:23:44.469
teens, many emergency management
plans really always just had

9c8fd73d-c983-4c63-9025-5b6494704d9b-2
01:23:44.469 --> 01:23:48.111
sort of one earthquake scenario, a
major event with very little

9c8fd73d-c983-4c63-9025-5b6494704d9b-3
01:23:48.111 --> 01:23:50.520
consideration of an aftershock
sequence.

85f3751e-1e79-4177-a944-c2ed16fd4541-0
01:23:50.520 --> 01:23:53.662
So curious what your
observations have been and the

85f3751e-1e79-4177-a944-c2ed16fd4541-1
01:23:53.662 --> 01:23:56.200
outreach you've been doing post-
scenario.

92d46b4f-d2e6-4591-8cad-860c780744c7-0
01:23:56.760 --> 01:23:57.440
Thanks for that.

d10a5536-9412-4b00-b042-04f7f1ede53e-0
01:23:58.400 --> 01:24:02.656
PG&E, I think were the first
users to run a exercise

d10a5536-9412-4b00-b042-04f7f1ede53e-1
01:24:02.656 --> 01:24:05.520
including some aftershocks early
on.

8716a8a0-b91d-479f-a4b1-93aa7941fc16-0
01:24:05.720 --> 01:24:06.600
So that was great.

ba763cff-2969-43fa-9a5f-2251ffb6ae78-0
01:24:07.120 --> 01:24:11.455
And most recently we've got
the HayWire tool kit, which Mark

ba763cff-2969-43fa-9a5f-2251ffb6ae78-1
01:24:11.455 --> 01:24:13.360
spoke to yesterday.

689df8a8-2a81-49b2-92c7-de087ca90658-0
01:24:13.360 --> 01:24:17.115
So there is a tool on
aftershocks and afterslip and

689df8a8-2a81-49b2-92c7-de087ca90658-1
01:24:17.115 --> 01:24:20.870
then it's brought up
periodically within some of the

689df8a8-2a81-49b2-92c7-de087ca90658-2
01:24:20.870 --> 01:24:24.200
other subjects that are offered
for exercises.

3f2d8e85-4bc5-4a22-be1a-18c0ae35c15a-0
01:24:24.200 --> 01:24:27.937
So in our workshops, we've been
bringing it up and having people

3f2d8e85-4bc5-4a22-be1a-18c0ae35c15a-1
01:24:27.937 --> 01:24:28.800
think about it.

d9c84f2a-ed2a-4f37-8fca-8a4f814df7d5-0
01:24:36.240 --> 01:24:40.640
David Wald, I think you
had your hands up.

4eff8f9c-a716-497d-8995-023ac7010ccc-0
01:24:41.560 --> 01:24:43.920
Yeah, unfortunately Jon Stewart
snuck out.

2cba83f5-1a96-4944-913e-e80f74853c69-0
01:24:45.440 --> 01:24:47.311
I'm going to give him his
question anyway, maybe you can

2cba83f5-1a96-4944-913e-e80f74853c69-1
01:24:47.311 --> 01:24:47.640
answer it.

d4942d8a-d3f5-4417-ac82-d6a7e6687a15-0
01:24:47.640 --> 01:24:51.055
And you know, we always learn
things from the field and really

d4942d8a-d3f5-4417-ac82-d6a7e6687a15-1
01:24:51.055 --> 01:24:54.470
surprised, as Jon said, but you
know, he talked about 1994 in

d4942d8a-d3f5-4417-ac82-d6a7e6687a15-2
01:24:54.470 --> 01:24:57.397
steel buildings and yet, you
know, we had some pretty

d4942d8a-d3f5-4417-ac82-d6a7e6687a15-3
01:24:57.397 --> 01:25:00.000
extraordinary collapses in
Mexico City in 1985.

bc9b42c3-ad30-465a-bfc3-a5139df870fa-0
01:25:00.480 --> 01:25:02.640
So you know, 

e0a6873b-9fe7-48ba-83e2-65e121ae98ab-0
01:25:02.960 --> 01:25:07.389
did we just ignore those because
those were not our structures or

e0a6873b-9fe7-48ba-83e2-65e121ae98ab-1
01:25:07.389 --> 01:25:11.483
was that lesson
never absorbed without steel

e0a6873b-9fe7-48ba-83e2-65e121ae98ab-2
01:25:11.483 --> 01:25:12.960
structures in 1985.

3a3c4ad7-f8c9-4d1a-8f0c-05cd243ea5e2-0
01:25:16.400 --> 01:25:19.280
Actually I was there.

128190b4-7f18-417f-b7be-61d95d05c611-0
01:25:19.600 --> 01:25:21.520
There was no steel structures
that collapsed.

9745a86e-0a18-4304-8fa4-3cf034886d23-0
01:25:22.200 --> 01:25:25.680
The steel structure,
the high rise buildings that

9745a86e-0a18-4304-8fa4-3cf034886d23-1
01:25:25.680 --> 01:25:28.774
collapsed Parte Loco and some
of the others were all

9745a86e-0a18-4304-8fa4-3cf034886d23-2
01:25:28.774 --> 01:25:29.880
reinforced concrete.

aead2b56-0587-419d-894f-0587dbf25173-0
01:25:30.440 --> 01:25:35.721
The Piño Suarez building was a
3 high

aead2b56-0587-419d-894f-0587dbf25173-1
01:25:35.721 --> 01:25:37.280
rise steel frame.

141c5214-f3d8-4d05-9097-4648f4c0c335-0
01:25:38.240 --> 01:25:39.280
They did not collapse.

4aa6c162-8e4e-460a-8611-502155eb0d60-0
01:25:39.280 --> 01:25:41.080
The columns buckled.

5efa99d7-bea7-42b9-823f-9d753a3cd5e4-0
01:25:41.440 --> 01:25:43.640
They were virtually on the edge
of collapse,

c2a64644-90de-45ea-99ca-fc89300666ad-0
01:25:43.640 --> 01:25:44.720
but they did not collapse.

409d0f65-eba6-4412-97aa-49250386193d-0
01:25:46.000 --> 01:25:49.365
I'm looking at Astras's paper on
steel structures collapsing,

409d0f65-eba6-4412-97aa-49250386193d-1
01:25:49.365 --> 01:25:49.800
Charlie.

33f10927-7454-482e-8328-a2722588fb7c-0
01:25:50.160 --> 01:25:51.200
Oh well,

d5dddad9-697e-4562-aba8-ca8c75bb79e6-0
01:25:51.200 --> 01:25:52.040
I'll do my homework.

4a5658b2-61e5-4295-a7e5-94d0bdc42da4-0
01:25:52.320 --> 01:25:53.600
Which ones is named?

03f27049-4f90-449a-8022-3c8c3f103a2d-0
01:25:54.000 --> 01:25:54.080
The 

0e1284df-0207-4cd6-8568-8bb6a877a205-0
01:25:54.440 --> 01:25:55.080
I don't.

345187a8-f9bf-45ad-8947-220bd3a4849c-0
01:25:55.080 --> 01:25:56.240
The Piño Suarez.

dbc36a82-bdec-4912-a87b-631beebcf699-0
01:25:57.120 --> 01:25:58.960
Piño Suarez did not collapse.

1ae0157e-48a8-46f8-9b07-34221b089612-0
01:26:00.320 --> 01:26:04.023
Severely damaged, 21-story
building collapsed and a 14-

1ae0157e-48a8-46f8-9b07-34221b089612-1
01:26:04.023 --> 01:26:05.640
story building collapse.

7677fd58-e4f1-4436-94bb-04a6093dc5b1-0
01:26:05.640 --> 01:26:07.040
So that's pretty nice.

c3acb797-5c8b-4d77-afbf-f3b42a2370ed-0
01:26:07.200 --> 01:26:07.520
Really.

d42331c6-187a-4b12-82cb-cd2cabe0baed-0
01:26:07.520 --> 01:26:08.440
But they did not collapse.

6dc6e979-4d21-4d8f-93e1-689902d4f3a1-0
01:26:11.600 --> 01:26:12.840
Okay.  [noise]

e15acdc9-2700-496d-a8f0-1bf7a261571b-0
01:26:14.040 --> 01:26:14.200
Yeah.

6ea8c978-edda-4410-aaa2-ef14f88b7d70-0
01:26:14.280 --> 01:26:16.920
OK, Dave, I have a question for
you.

e680838b-bd13-4f28-a59a-dd75f8256b7d-0
01:26:17.520 --> 01:26:21.311
Okay. Is there any consideration for

e680838b-bd13-4f28-a59a-dd75f8256b7d-1
01:26:21.311 --> 01:26:24.960
incorporating fire following
into pager estimates?

37c26f80-5fc1-4fca-bd9d-878e135823c9-0
01:26:26.160 --> 01:26:26.880
No.

1c8fc9c7-3f73-43bf-b984-1852deab5b9c-0
01:26:27.160 --> 01:26:28.480
That's a really tough one.

162dd393-d93a-4d53-9e1a-9e7d060b2870-0
01:26:28.480 --> 01:26:32.117
I mean it's right there
with tsunami where, you know,

162dd393-d93a-4d53-9e1a-9e7d060b2870-1
01:26:32.117 --> 01:26:34.240
the shaking's over and we're
done.

bd5338c1-d894-46ea-9345-808411e60c0c-0
01:26:34.640 --> 01:26:37.876
You know the most of the
problems over the damages done,

bd5338c1-d894-46ea-9345-808411e60c0c-1
01:26:37.876 --> 01:26:41.112
tsunami's going to come at some
later time and that's an

bd5338c1-d894-46ea-9345-808411e60c0c-2
01:26:41.112 --> 01:26:43.439
evolving process. With fire
following,

ab6e1a9d-3b7e-4f68-b740-449e343bbedb-0
01:26:43.440 --> 01:26:47.418
it's also an evolving process
that is, as Charlie knows, it's

ab6e1a9d-3b7e-4f68-b740-449e343bbedb-1
01:26:47.418 --> 01:26:50.663
really, it's difficult to model
and it's more really

ab6e1a9d-3b7e-4f68-b740-449e343bbedb-2
01:26:50.663 --> 01:26:51.520
observational.

0c3d0bcc-6d42-4284-8f47-0a5cd5ad7622-0
01:26:51.520 --> 01:26:53.675
I mean you got to
pay attention to what's happening

0c3d0bcc-6d42-4284-8f47-0a5cd5ad7622-1
01:26:53.675 --> 01:26:55.760
on the street and that's what
the new fire departments do.

e785a58b-1873-4635-a9f4-6d27000f7a73-0
01:26:55.800 --> 01:26:56.000
Yeah.

105002e0-a02e-4be2-bd42-b79c9aaf5a11-0
01:26:56.000 --> 01:27:00.095
So I think from a mitigation of
planning perspective, it would

105002e0-a02e-4be2-bd42-b79c9aaf5a11-1
01:27:00.095 --> 01:27:04.320
be better to have better models
for scenario earthquakes so that

105002e0-a02e-4be2-bd42-b79c9aaf5a11-2
01:27:04.320 --> 01:27:08.025
we can we can do that, but
it's a tricky business

105002e0-a02e-4be2-bd42-b79c9aaf5a11-3
01:27:08.025 --> 01:27:12.185
and we stick with shaking base
damage which is still tricky but

105002e0-a02e-4be2-bd42-b79c9aaf5a11-4
01:27:12.185 --> 01:27:14.200
still a little bit more viable.

d592a377-011f-45ab-b6c6-cc8e37965b6b-0
01:27:17.800 --> 01:27:19.400
I have a question for Sue.

fca77fe9-5559-4f91-9665-d90599935617-0
01:27:21.080 --> 01:27:24.626
It's really interesting to be
able to use the historical

fca77fe9-5559-4f91-9665-d90599935617-1
01:27:24.626 --> 01:27:26.120
reports from Charleston.

00d33fc5-f4d9-41e5-bff8-71ee4619f17b-0
01:27:26.760 --> 01:27:28.920
How far back can we reliably go?

7fff8b10-6ac3-4af8-860c-1a008cc4e588-0
01:27:28.920 --> 01:27:33.004
I mean, there's some really
long earthquake records in, say,

7fff8b10-6ac3-4af8-860c-1a008cc4e588-1
01:27:33.004 --> 01:27:36.634
Turkey and China, but the
reports are really sparse and

7fff8b10-6ac3-4af8-860c-1a008cc4e588-2
01:27:36.634 --> 01:27:38.319
from a very different era.

cb631c29-7d24-4037-8350-adab8cc24fdc-0
01:27:39.160 --> 01:27:43.184
So yeah, I mean, there's the
whole realm of of historical

cb631c29-7d24-4037-8350-adab8cc24fdc-1
01:27:43.184 --> 01:27:45.960
seismology that depends on the
history.

b6874402-74c1-4bf6-9c20-db10513d2cc6-0
01:27:45.960 --> 01:27:49.600
Japan, I mean, the history has
to exist, written history.

e7ad42ea-1696-4e08-9530-803eeb5f3dd1-0
01:27:49.800 --> 01:27:52.656
And a lot of the native tribes
in North America didn't have a

e7ad42ea-1696-4e08-9530-803eeb5f3dd1-1
01:27:52.656 --> 01:27:53.440
written language.

fe1fdd63-19f5-492b-bb19-994419473c8d-0
01:27:53.440 --> 01:27:55.980
So they were around, but there
there weren't any records that

fe1fdd63-19f5-492b-bb19-994419473c8d-1
01:27:55.980 --> 01:27:56.480
we can find.

db9d5067-beec-43a5-a260-a727ffec39f4-0
01:27:57.400 --> 01:28:00.972
Ruth Ludwig's done some great
work going back to to

db9d5067-beec-43a5-a260-a727ffec39f4-1
01:28:00.972 --> 01:28:05.301
transcribed oral histories to
tease out some information about

db9d5067-beec-43a5-a260-a727ffec39f4-2
01:28:05.301 --> 01:28:05.920
Cascadia.

38aef1e5-f4e4-458a-94d1-0e14ddccf917-0
01:28:05.960 --> 01:28:08.200
Really remarkable work.

ff924a27-c20a-47d1-932b-a537b8019d7d-0
01:28:08.600 --> 01:28:12.153
It just depends on the country
how far back the written records

ff924a27-c20a-47d1-932b-a537b8019d7d-1
01:28:12.153 --> 01:28:12.320
go.

6f11e627-4fcb-43ea-8c72-ac32893b7088-0
01:28:13.440 --> 01:28:16.200
And then, you know, finding
them.

ae83b2ff-1fbb-46eb-98b7-5ccbad347211-0
01:28:16.200 --> 01:28:20.504
1886 really is exceptional
because of Clarence Dutton and

ae83b2ff-1fbb-46eb-98b7-5ccbad347211-1
01:28:20.504 --> 01:28:25.253
the report that was done on
that earthquake is a remarkable

ae83b2ff-1fbb-46eb-98b7-5ccbad347211-2
01:28:25.253 --> 01:28:27.480
compilation of information.

6c4066af-294a-4d6a-851e-0ae2eb3775c2-0
01:28:29.200 --> 01:28:32.602
If you go back to New Madrid or
earlier earthquakes and you're

6c4066af-294a-4d6a-851e-0ae2eb3775c2-1
01:28:32.602 --> 01:28:35.680
rooting around for newspaper
articles for the most part.

1c7a4d6d-de93-4ee9-a740-5003bf528256-0
01:28:37.720 --> 01:28:42.262
May I mention that in the
1980's Muir Wood would develop

1c7a4d6d-de93-4ee9-a740-5003bf528256-1
01:28:42.262 --> 01:28:46.366
the catalog of British
earthquakes going back over 1000

1c7a4d6d-de93-4ee9-a740-5003bf528256-2
01:28:46.366 --> 01:28:51.055
years by looking at not only the
literature but also the damage

1c7a4d6d-de93-4ee9-a740-5003bf528256-3
01:28:51.055 --> 01:28:53.839
the churches in the UK or in
Britain.

3abee833-68ae-4acc-9581-dff418d4f6a6-0
01:28:55.200 --> 01:28:58.486
So it's similar thing and I
enjoyed your presentation very

3abee833-68ae-4acc-9581-dff418d4f6a6-1
01:28:58.486 --> 01:28:59.000
much soon.

3a8dc623-5db8-4fb4-9138-ab54583fe7a3-0
01:29:00.120 --> 01:29:00.440
Thank you.

a4dc4ea8-500f-4597-ae57-2b2205ab14fb-0
01:29:00.440 --> 01:29:04.840
Yeah, I mean the Britain,
England has a long history.

f159095e-ecd3-4953-8ae7-5a0c5d71559f-0
01:29:04.840 --> 01:29:10.213
Italy, Italy has a very active
historical seismology community

f159095e-ecd3-4953-8ae7-5a0c5d71559f-1
01:29:10.213 --> 01:29:11.920
with a long history.

c51e7cde-eac7-4c57-a270-543b1be7ddee-0
01:29:13.000 --> 01:29:16.483
I think with some of the
work you really need to have

c51e7cde-eac7-4c57-a270-543b1be7ddee-1
01:29:16.483 --> 01:29:19.200
the language becomes an issue.

40046b3e-b493-4dc1-a914-69a7af64584e-0
01:29:20.360 --> 01:29:24.019
So it's not something like
looking at the Chinese record,

40046b3e-b493-4dc1-a914-69a7af64584e-1
01:29:24.019 --> 01:29:28.120
it's not something that someone
from the outside could could do.

46bfa0ec-a7b5-4b0a-8c79-0ccd1fbf93fd-0
01:29:32.600 --> 01:29:34.080
So I wanted to check with
everybody.

e80e2881-d031-4cd2-be8f-718c6b24f980-0
01:29:34.080 --> 01:29:37.080
Is there any last questions for
our speakers?

4fc27b92-1aed-4c29-afd4-9ea4082e8a5f-0
01:29:41.120 --> 01:29:43.120
Thank you all for your
participation.

7ffd31af-2810-4c86-a03e-0d75f44b3909-0
01:29:43.120 --> 01:29:44.600
I'm going to hand this off to
Sarah.

d19076ba-f166-42aa-9fd2-bb0ee5367e36-0
01:29:46.680 --> 01:29:49.781
Thank you so much to our
speakers, our moderators, and our

d19076ba-f166-42aa-9fd2-bb0ee5367e36-1
01:29:49.781 --> 01:29:51.600
wonderful, wonderful participants.

0d0ad06a-dcbd-452d-abb3-f36acbdb0dba-0
01:29:51.600 --> 01:29:55.040
That was a great closing session
and a lively discussion.

6d4dfb79-9d1e-4bce-a855-044526d8577a-0
01:29:55.040 --> 01:29:58.745
I hate to interrupt, but it is
the end of the third day and I

6d4dfb79-9d1e-4bce-a855-044526d8577a-1
01:29:58.745 --> 01:30:01.640
feel like I should release
everyone to the world.

8a4ae2f1-6657-4127-85b2-0e153d3c5a92-0
01:30:01.920 --> 01:30:04.680
But I want to say that we I need
to interrupt you.

d7663ab0-f30a-41cf-a752-c3f0188a7a7a-0
01:30:04.800 --> 01:30:07.680
I've been instructed that I'm
allowed to do that.

342c3112-9d7a-4451-974a-a83cf4f399de-0
01:30:08.320 --> 01:30:08.720
Okay.

b4bb45be-8e0b-4a5b-9132-8dcdfebbe5cc-0
01:30:08.760 --> 01:30:14.310
Of course we will because we 
"otter" thank you for your

b4bb45be-8e0b-4a5b-9132-8dcdfebbe5cc-1
01:30:14.310 --> 01:30:19.673
utterly important contributions
as a fearless leader for

b4bb45be-8e0b-4a5b-9132-8dcdfebbe5cc-2
01:30:19.673 --> 01:30:22.120
everybody in the workshop.

0f7f9b29-6706-4bc2-84c7-9f82b53cbf3d-0
01:30:22.520 --> 01:30:24.240
And thank you so much.

98c264c0-7b3c-4b0a-9ae8-2a860fcae08a-0
01:30:24.240 --> 01:30:27.455
So everybody, a round of
applause for Sarah and everybody

98c264c0-7b3c-4b0a-9ae8-2a860fcae08a-1
01:30:27.455 --> 01:30:30.670
in the speakers and the and
everybody who got engaged and

98c264c0-7b3c-4b0a-9ae8-2a860fcae08a-2
01:30:30.670 --> 01:30:31.280
moderators.

7dcf85d7-cc7f-4bed-9acb-b3a9cb094d4a-0
01:30:31.280 --> 01:30:34.920
But really, Sarah, thank you so
much for putting this together.

be768301-eff3-4e5c-9ae8-56bbf707cf68-0
01:30:34.920 --> 01:30:39.574
And now I'm retreating politely
so you can finish your 

be768301-eff3-4e5c-9ae8-56bbf707cf68-1
01:30:39.574 --> 01:30:40.040
spill.

e234a627-dde0-4b85-bc8a-2ccb0be0acf9-0
01:30:40.800 --> 01:30:41.320
Thank you, Sarah.

8d660a08-6ca9-4032-afdd-e456c8309de3-0
01:30:41.320 --> 01:30:43.520
No, thank you everyone.

1d7ca09d-262b-4cac-9603-150e00829574-0
01:30:45.200 --> 01:30:49.043
You know, this is a group
activity all the organizers do

1d7ca09d-262b-4cac-9603-150e00829574-1
01:30:49.043 --> 01:30:49.920
with so much.

d452c726-21b0-4840-a618-8ae64b16fbf4-0
01:30:49.920 --> 01:30:52.836
But also, you know, it's all of
you being wonderful and

d452c726-21b0-4840-a618-8ae64b16fbf4-1
01:30:52.836 --> 01:30:55.440
participating wonderfully that
make the workshop.

d88c52c2-641e-4ec5-b391-4f0b43f9f999-0
01:30:55.440 --> 01:30:58.360
So give you all, Give yourselves
a big round of applause.

525890c7-1190-4582-9cef-3c93c4a7568d-0
01:31:00.200 --> 01:31:00.960
 for Sarah.

90f6fc8f-d451-4c7e-8fb6-4ce320b6bec2-0
01:31:04.400 --> 01:31:07.707
So we learned 
climate change and how

90f6fc8f-d451-4c7e-8fb6-4ce320b6bec2-1
01:31:07.707 --> 01:31:10.952
hazards are gonna be more
seasonal in the future as

90f6fc8f-d451-4c7e-8fb6-4ce320b6bec2-2
01:31:10.952 --> 01:31:13.760
climate becomes more extreme in
its seasons.

22b02a7c-a01d-4188-b2cf-ce0e9e0d2564-0
01:31:14.400 --> 01:31:18.144
We learned about the importance
of different communications

22b02a7c-a01d-4188-b2cf-ce0e9e0d2564-1
01:31:18.144 --> 01:31:20.640
methods and basic earthquake
education.

77f299b9-a84f-4a24-83ca-18d9c6cdbb4f-0
01:31:20.640 --> 01:31:23.326
And then, in fact, people may
need basic earthquake education

77f299b9-a84f-4a24-83ca-18d9c6cdbb4f-1
01:31:23.326 --> 01:31:25.840
to be able to take advantage of
earthquake early warning.

e547b6ad-0db5-4325-bc34-007eda543ec9-0
01:31:26.480 --> 01:31:29.000
We talked about the extinction
of the passenger pigeons, which

e547b6ad-0db5-4325-bc34-007eda543ec9-1
01:31:29.000 --> 01:31:30.160
I was not expecting us to do.

91cfe2b6-1080-41ad-9f2d-8716b32d9b90-0
01:31:30.160 --> 01:31:32.000
We made a lot of otter puns.

6c0bac75-2772-4bde-8afb-0b5f517c9b28-0
01:31:33.720 --> 01:31:37.218
We managed to cause both an
atmospheric river during a

6c0bac75-2772-4bde-8afb-0b5f517c9b28-1
01:31:37.218 --> 01:31:41.226
climate change session and a a
swarm on a creeping faultt during

6c0bac75-2772-4bde-8afb-0b5f517c9b28-2
01:31:41.226 --> 01:31:42.880
a a creeping fault session.

8e608353-fd52-4c5c-b677-0d5d6366a405-0
01:31:42.880 --> 01:31:45.858
So we're really, really powerful
in a way that we weren't

8e608353-fd52-4c5c-b677-0d5d6366a405-1
01:31:45.858 --> 01:31:46.680
expecting to be.

931724a5-3c2a-410b-9089-d6fadc407ab4-0
01:31:48.160 --> 01:31:50.812
We've developed an important
theory about earthquakes

931724a5-3c2a-410b-9089-d6fadc407ab4-1
01:31:50.812 --> 01:31:53.711
happening in the years 4 and 9,
except for the Triple Junction

931724a5-3c2a-410b-9089-d6fadc407ab4-2
01:31:53.711 --> 01:31:55.480
where it's the years ending in
2.

6419ad4d-575b-4bd9-a17b-7da640ae5e70-0
01:31:55.760 --> 01:31:58.575
And I think most importantly of
all, I want to end with the

6419ad4d-575b-4bd9-a17b-7da640ae5e70-1
01:31:58.575 --> 01:32:01.250
really, really important words
that Christy Rose gave us

6419ad4d-575b-4bd9-a17b-7da640ae5e70-2
01:32:01.250 --> 01:32:01.719
yesterday.

75301d5d-eb73-48b5-9300-16b71a4aadb6-0
01:32:02.520 --> 01:32:04.600
Trees are not weeds.

656f6a3c-5b69-4f24-92ab-1ba829926b26-0
01:32:08.840 --> 01:32:10.000
And I think that's it.

d13022ab-d2e4-4d2c-affc-8fd26624276d-0
01:32:10.320 --> 01:32:12.200
Thank you so much everyone.

5ebcd77b-6f79-4023-976b-2dafbd556943-0
01:32:12.200 --> 01:32:13.840
Have a wonderful, wonderful
time.

954c595a-8b6e-4a6a-9b1e-d32b9a9933cb-0
01:32:13.840 --> 01:32:16.280
Till next year or actually until
next month.

bf5d3706-270d-41d4-bf0d-e1135f099713-0
01:32:16.280 --> 01:32:19.827
Come back March 4th through 5th
for our community modeling

bf5d3706-270d-41d4-bf0d-e1135f099713-1
01:32:19.827 --> 01:32:20.360
workshop.

87b1eda3-8951-49f8-a5ff-8ee321989872-0
01:32:20.360 --> 01:32:21.520
More information to come.