WEBVTT

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<v McGarr, Arthur F>[background noise]</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/569-0
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<v McGarr, Arthur F>[background noise]</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/562-0
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<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Alright, thanks.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/572-0
00:00:06.627 --> 00:00:08.007
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Can I make one more quick
announcement?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/589-0
00:00:08.017 --> 00:00:11.497
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yes, please. So next Tuesday from
1-3 p.m. here and online</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/617-0
00:00:11.507 --> 00:00:13.937
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>we will have the summer
summer student final</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/617-1
00:00:13.937 --> 00:00:16.795
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>presentation, so everyone's
encouraged to come and see </v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/617-2
00:00:16.795 --> 00:00:18.177
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>it's really fun to see </v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/628-0
00:00:18.187 --> 00:00:20.927
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030> the breadth of projects. OK, so
thanks.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/641-0
00:00:21.147 --> 00:00:26.737
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>I'm really happy to have
Amy here online today.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/651-0
00:00:26.817 --> 00:00:29.597
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And Amy got her PhD at Georgia
Tech.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/671-0
00:00:29.927 --> 00:00:33.521
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And then did a postdoc at
University of Oregon working on</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/671-1
00:00:33.521 --> 00:00:34.017
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>tsunami.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/682-0
00:00:34.067 --> 00:00:36.657
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>The relationship between tsunami
propagation and updation.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/684-0
00:00:37.177 --> 00:00:37.757
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/716-0
00:00:38.457 --> 00:00:42.457
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And thinking about early tsunami
early warning and she worked</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/716-1
00:00:42.457 --> 00:00:46.265
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>with a joint NASA and NOAA
Sanami early morning project to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/716-2
00:00:46.265 --> 00:00:48.007
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>bring that to the Cascadia.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/728-0
00:00:48.937 --> 00:00:53.987
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And she didn't spend a year as a
duty scientist in Palmer, AK.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/747-0
00:00:53.997 --> 00:00:56.690
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Hopefully I'm getting this right
at the national Inami Warning</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/747-1
00:00:56.690 --> 00:00:58.187
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Center, which sounds a super
cool.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/755-0
00:00:58.197 --> 00:00:59.297
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So you get a chance.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/762-0
00:00:59.307 --> 00:01:00.207
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>That's fair about that.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/802-0
00:01:00.297 --> 00:01:03.137
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And for the past few years,
she's been at Berkeley as a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/802-1
00:01:03.137 --> 00:01:06.433
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>postdoc and and still working on
tsunami early warning, but also</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/802-2
00:01:06.433 --> 00:01:09.628
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>moving more towards terrestrial
early warning and working with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/802-3
00:01:09.628 --> 00:01:10.997
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>the Berkeley through there.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/816-0
00:01:11.047 --> 00:01:14.427
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And she's dabbling slightly in
some sort of ground motion.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/845-0
00:01:14.437 --> 00:01:17.642
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Any stuff which has been fun to
to talk about a little bit, but</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/845-1
00:01:17.642 --> 00:01:20.847
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>I think today she's really gonna
be focused on the the tsunami.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/866-0
00:01:22.867 --> 00:01:28.491
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Propagation and early warning
issue so thanks so much and take</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/866-1
00:01:28.491 --> 00:01:30.277
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>it away in a moment.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/870-0
00:01:30.287 --> 00:01:30.977
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Maybe say.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/872-0
00:01:31.687 --> 00:01:32.067
<v Amy Williamson>Great.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/877-0
00:01:32.127 --> 00:01:35.977
<v Amy Williamson>Thanks me share here.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/886-0
00:01:32.377 --> 00:01:32.767
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>It's.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/887-0
00:01:39.217 --> 00:01:40.747
<v Amy Williamson>And everyone can hear me. OK?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/894-0
00:01:41.217 --> 00:01:43.107
<v Amy Williamson>Yes, great.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/893-0
00:01:43.177 --> 00:01:43.247
<v Garcia, Susan>Yes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/913-0
00:01:44.717 --> 00:01:50.434
<v Amy Williamson>Some play this from the start
and alright, great and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/913-1
00:01:50.434 --> 00:01:55.397
<v Amy Williamson>obligatory everyone can see the
screen right?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/918-0
00:01:57.407 --> 00:01:57.667
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Right.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/919-0
00:01:58.217 --> 00:01:58.667
<v Amy Williamson>Awesome.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/930-0
00:01:58.857 --> 00:02:01.847
<v Amy Williamson>Alright, thank you guys all for
having me.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1003-0
00:02:01.897 --> 00:02:05.973
<v Amy Williamson>I'll be at virtually and so
today I really wanted to talk</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1003-1
00:02:05.973 --> 00:02:10.330
<v Amy Williamson>about kind of to sort of similar
directions that I have done,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1003-2
00:02:10.330 --> 00:02:14.476
<v Amy Williamson>research in both earthquake
early warning and dynami early</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1003-3
00:02:14.476 --> 00:02:18.693
<v Amy Williamson>warning and kind of look at sort
of improvements on in both</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1003-4
00:02:18.693 --> 00:02:23.261
<v Amy Williamson>directions and then a little bit
about kind of my long term goal</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1003-5
00:02:23.261 --> 00:02:27.337
<v Amy Williamson>of wanting to kind of see them
being a bit more combined.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1007-0
00:02:29.307 --> 00:02:29.537
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1022-0
00:02:29.547 --> 00:02:33.197
<v Amy Williamson>And so, you know, both are very
important for the West Coast.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1056-0
00:02:33.207 --> 00:02:37.358
<v Amy Williamson>Not only is it a seismically
active area, it's an area where</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1056-1
00:02:37.358 --> 00:02:41.712
<v Amy Williamson>we have also a high tsunami risk
as well as a lot of population</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1056-2
00:02:41.712 --> 00:02:42.257
<v Amy Williamson>centers.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1071-0
00:02:42.767 --> 00:02:46.057
<v Amy Williamson>And so of course, we have
earthquake early warning along</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1071-1
00:02:46.057 --> 00:02:48.077
<v Amy Williamson>California, Oregon and
Washington.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1093-0
00:02:48.497 --> 00:02:53.726
<v Amy Williamson>And so that gives us, umm, a bit
of a ability to have kind of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1093-1
00:02:53.726 --> 00:02:55.497
<v Amy Williamson>alert to earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1152-0
00:02:55.507 --> 00:02:59.561
<v Amy Williamson>And we also have cenami warning
systems that kind of service the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1152-1
00:02:59.561 --> 00:03:03.054
<v Amy Williamson>West Coast using sort of
different data sets, but could</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1152-2
00:03:03.054 --> 00:03:06.859
<v Amy Williamson>potentially be able to provide
expedited warnings by kind of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1152-3
00:03:06.859 --> 00:03:10.539
<v Amy Williamson>expanding that to include in
some data that's also used in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1152-4
00:03:10.539 --> 00:03:14.157
<v Amy Williamson>early warning as well as some
real time modeling efforts.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1192-0
00:03:14.937 --> 00:03:18.531
<v Amy Williamson>And so this talk today, what I
kind of wanna do is take some of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1192-1
00:03:18.531 --> 00:03:21.676
<v Amy Williamson>the work that I'm currently
doing at Berkeley, which is</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1192-2
00:03:21.676 --> 00:03:24.147
<v Amy Williamson>trying to fine tune some of our
earthquake.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1239-0
00:03:24.397 --> 00:03:28.188
<v Amy Williamson>I really warning algorithms to
try to provide better alerts,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1239-1
00:03:28.188 --> 00:03:31.978
<v Amy Williamson>particularly for those sort of
smaller to moderate magnitude</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1239-2
00:03:31.978 --> 00:03:35.893
<v Amy Williamson>earthquakes, and then kind of
zoom out and look at sort of the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1239-3
00:03:35.893 --> 00:03:38.317
<v Amy Williamson>larger end of the earthquake
spectrum.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1277-0
00:03:38.327 --> 00:03:41.808
<v Amy Williamson>So larger earthquakes,
particularly ones that generate</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1277-1
00:03:41.808 --> 00:03:45.606
<v Amy Williamson>2 nomis and seeing how we can
kind of use some of that real</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1277-2
00:03:45.606 --> 00:03:49.594
<v Amy Williamson>time data to expedite warnings
and kind of move more into that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1277-3
00:03:49.594 --> 00:03:51.367
<v Amy Williamson>tsunami early warning realm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1293-0
00:03:53.117 --> 00:03:58.501
<v Amy Williamson>Alright, so start of you know
the obligatory early earthquake</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1293-1
00:03:58.501 --> 00:03:59.717
<v Amy Williamson>early warning.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1301-0
00:03:59.727 --> 00:04:01.457
<v Amy Williamson>Slide of what is early warning.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1344-0
00:04:01.747 --> 00:04:05.356
<v Amy Williamson>I think many of us are very
familiar with this, but it is a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1344-1
00:04:05.356 --> 00:04:08.844
<v Amy Williamson>systems that can detect,
characterize and then ultimately</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1344-2
00:04:08.844 --> 00:04:12.694
<v Amy Williamson>send out alerts that would warn
people about shaking related to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1344-3
00:04:12.694 --> 00:04:13.957
<v Amy Williamson>damaging earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1359-0
00:04:14.337 --> 00:04:17.372
<v Amy Williamson>And these are usually achieved
through a suite of different</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1359-1
00:04:17.372 --> 00:04:18.637
<v Amy Williamson>early morning algorithms.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1400-0
00:04:19.247 --> 00:04:22.498
<v Amy Williamson>Oftentimes, successful system
would be able to provide at</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1400-1
00:04:22.498 --> 00:04:25.918
<v Amy Williamson>least a few seconds of warning
that will allow us to do very</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1400-2
00:04:25.918 --> 00:04:28.777
<v Amy Williamson>simple actions such as to drop,
cover and hold on.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1406-0
00:04:29.007 --> 00:04:29.517
<v Amy Williamson>Uh, warning.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1419-0
00:04:29.527 --> 00:04:33.222
<v Amy Williamson>Small thing to be able to sort
of minimize our risk prior to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1419-1
00:04:33.222 --> 00:04:33.707
<v Amy Williamson>shaking.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1422-0
00:04:36.417 --> 00:04:36.737
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1441-0
00:04:36.757 --> 00:04:42.475
<v Amy Williamson>And so, you know, we've it's a
fairly straightforward system on</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1441-1
00:04:42.475 --> 00:04:43.547
<v Amy Williamson>the surface.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-0
00:04:43.607 --> 00:04:47.108
<v Amy Williamson>So basically, when we have an
earthquake and body weight</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-1
00:04:47.108 --> 00:04:50.917
<v Amy Williamson>propagate out from that source,
they would be detected by any</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-2
00:04:50.917 --> 00:04:54.848
<v Amy Williamson>nearby stations that would see
that P wave go by and then using</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-3
00:04:54.848 --> 00:04:58.657
<v Amy Williamson>both that trigger time as well
as whatever information we can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-4
00:04:58.657 --> 00:05:02.281
<v Amy Williamson>get within just the first few
seconds of that wave passing</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-5
00:05:02.281 --> 00:05:05.598
<v Amy Williamson>through, we can use that to kind
of create an initial</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-6
00:05:05.598 --> 00:05:09.161
<v Amy Williamson>characterization of the location
and the magnitude of the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1529-7
00:05:09.161 --> 00:05:09.837
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1541-0
00:05:11.367 --> 00:05:13.517
<v Amy Williamson>I'm kind of using that initial
source.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1586-0
00:05:13.527 --> 00:05:17.283
<v Amy Williamson>We can then sort of estimate out
the shaking intensity UM using</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1586-1
00:05:17.283 --> 00:05:20.628
<v Amy Williamson>ground motion prediction
equations and then kind of take</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1586-2
00:05:20.628 --> 00:05:24.091
<v Amy Williamson>those areas where we see a
certain amount of intensity and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1586-3
00:05:24.091 --> 00:05:27.554
<v Amy Williamson>hopefully provide an alert out
for those communities again</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1586-4
00:05:27.554 --> 00:05:28.317
<v Amy Williamson>ideally with.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1605-0
00:05:29.947 --> 00:05:32.453
<v Amy Williamson>A couple of seconds time to be
able to take some of those</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1605-1
00:05:32.453 --> 00:05:33.317
<v Amy Williamson>protective measures.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1625-0
00:05:36.057 --> 00:05:40.037
<v Amy Williamson>And so a lot of this sort of
requires having sort of that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1625-1
00:05:40.037 --> 00:05:41.067
<v Amy Williamson>denser network.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1656-0
00:05:41.077 --> 00:05:45.659
<v Amy Williamson>So the more stations that we can
have close to a source, the more</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1656-1
00:05:45.659 --> 00:05:49.825
<v Amy Williamson>data that we have very early on
to be able to create better</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1656-2
00:05:49.825 --> 00:05:50.867
<v Amy Williamson>initial alerts.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1671-0
00:05:51.357 --> 00:05:54.007
<v Amy Williamson>So having a dense seismic
network is really key.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1693-0
00:05:54.557 --> 00:05:58.632
<v Amy Williamson>And over the past many years,
that network that is used within</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1693-1
00:05:58.632 --> 00:06:01.867
<v Amy Williamson>shake alert has been getting
more and more dense.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1735-0
00:06:02.237 --> 00:06:06.877
<v Amy Williamson>So I have what is I think pretty
updated figure of where stations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1735-1
00:06:06.877 --> 00:06:11.517
<v Amy Williamson>are within shake where where red
triangles are on our seismic end</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1735-2
00:06:11.517 --> 00:06:16.017
<v Amy Williamson>and then as of fairly recently
the inclusion of more GNSS data.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1770-0
00:06:16.027 --> 00:06:19.728
<v Amy Williamson>So those are sort of a blue plus
marks here showing that we've</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1770-1
00:06:19.728 --> 00:06:22.959
<v Amy Williamson>really been densifying that
network even in areas that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1770-2
00:06:22.959 --> 00:06:25.897
<v Amy Williamson>previously didn't have a lot of
station coverage.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1805-0
00:06:26.657 --> 00:06:29.735
<v Amy Williamson>And so, of course, having those
seismic stations nearby can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1805-1
00:06:29.735 --> 00:06:32.813
<v Amy Williamson>really decrease the amount of
time to an alert and increase</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1805-2
00:06:32.813 --> 00:06:34.557
<v Amy Williamson>our data going into those
alerts.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1859-0
00:06:34.787 --> 00:06:38.682
<v Amy Williamson>And then that GNSS data can help
us to further refine estimates,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1859-1
00:06:38.682 --> 00:06:42.277
<v Amy Williamson>particularly when we get to the
larger magnitude end of our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1859-2
00:06:42.277 --> 00:06:46.232
<v Amy Williamson>earthquakes where having some of
that deformation data could help</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1859-3
00:06:46.232 --> 00:06:49.887
<v Amy Williamson>us to refine or magnitudes after
that initial seismic alert.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1877-0
00:06:50.857 --> 00:06:55.548
<v Amy Williamson>I mean this data is also can be
useful for non earthquake early</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1877-1
00:06:55.548 --> 00:06:57.087
<v Amy Williamson>warning applications.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1915-0
00:06:57.417 --> 00:07:00.986
<v Amy Williamson>So being able to use this to
look more at Brown motions,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1915-1
00:07:00.986 --> 00:07:04.869
<v Amy Williamson>transient deformations with our
geodetic data, looking at our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1915-2
00:07:04.869 --> 00:07:08.627
<v Amy Williamson>overall hazard sort of outside
of that really warning lens.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1931-0
00:07:08.677 --> 00:07:12.677
<v Amy Williamson>And so it's really been kind of
great to have this sort of large</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1931-1
00:07:12.677 --> 00:07:13.847
<v Amy Williamson>data set available.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1950-0
00:07:17.377 --> 00:07:21.030
<v Amy Williamson>And so within sort of the the US
Shake Alert earthquake early</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1950-1
00:07:21.030 --> 00:07:21.737
<v Amy Williamson>warning hat.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1970-0
00:07:21.747 --> 00:07:26.009
<v Amy Williamson>We have a couple of different
algorithms, so we have epic and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/1970-1
00:07:26.009 --> 00:07:28.347
<v Amy Williamson>this is the one that I work
with.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2000-0
00:07:29.127 --> 00:07:33.829
<v Amy Williamson>This is a sort of network based
point source algorithm and so it</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2000-1
00:07:33.829 --> 00:07:37.809
<v Amy Williamson>covers a lot of our smaller to
moderate side magnitude</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2000-2
00:07:37.809 --> 00:07:38.677
<v Amy Williamson>earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2034-0
00:07:39.467 --> 00:07:42.604
<v Amy Williamson>Then when you get into sort of
the larger earthquakes, you also</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2034-1
00:07:42.604 --> 00:07:45.643
<v Amy Williamson>have Finder, which we've moved
now away from the point source</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2034-2
00:07:45.643 --> 00:07:47.947
<v Amy Williamson>into a sort of about finite
lengths algorithm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2058-0
00:07:47.957 --> 00:07:52.300
<v Amy Williamson>So yeah, that handles kind of
into the moderate to large and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2058-1
00:07:52.300 --> 00:07:55.717
<v Amy Williamson>then as a recently the inclusion
of G fast PGD.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2095-0
00:07:55.787 --> 00:07:59.177
<v Amy Williamson>So this is a peak brown
displacement magnitude algorithm</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2095-1
00:07:59.177 --> 00:08:02.806
<v Amy Williamson>using some of that GNSS data,
and so this again can can fill</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2095-2
00:08:02.806 --> 00:08:06.137
<v Amy Williamson>in once we get to our very large
magnitude earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2115-0
00:08:06.627 --> 00:08:08.947
<v Amy Williamson>So I'm gonna talk mostly on the
earlier part.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2142-0
00:08:08.957 --> 00:08:12.521
<v Amy Williamson>That's talk about some methods
improve on epic and then on the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2142-1
00:08:12.521 --> 00:08:15.859
<v Amy Williamson>tsunami side, some of the work
I've done using a different</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2142-2
00:08:15.859 --> 00:08:19.027
<v Amy Williamson>feature within G fast with their
finite fault modeling.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2164-0
00:08:21.477 --> 00:08:26.200
<v Amy Williamson>Alright, so we're gonna do a
really a very simplified view of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2164-1
00:08:26.200 --> 00:08:27.647
<v Amy Williamson>just how epic runs.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2224-0
00:08:27.937 --> 00:08:31.822
<v Amy Williamson>So we're gonna take a lot of
simplifications here, but</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2224-1
00:08:31.822 --> 00:08:36.060
<v Amy Williamson>basically how this kind of works
is that you have waveforms</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2224-2
00:08:36.060 --> 00:08:40.298
<v Amy Williamson>coming in from the seismic
stations after an earthquake has</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2224-3
00:08:40.298 --> 00:08:44.607
<v Amy Williamson>occurred and you get an initial
trigger using STL algorithm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2251-0
00:08:45.147 --> 00:08:48.134
<v Amy Williamson>And then within Epic, there is
an associate algorithm that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2251-1
00:08:48.134 --> 00:08:51.019
<v Amy Williamson>takes all bunch of these
different triggers and tries to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2251-2
00:08:51.019 --> 00:08:52.437
<v Amy Williamson>group them into earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2275-0
00:08:53.047 --> 00:08:55.889
<v Amy Williamson>So triggers are really coming in
all the time, even without</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2275-1
00:08:55.889 --> 00:08:57.737
<v Amy Williamson>necessarily there being an
earthquake.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2314-0
00:08:57.807 --> 00:09:01.413
<v Amy Williamson>But once there is and you can
start to kind of lump these</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2314-1
00:09:01.413 --> 00:09:05.267
<v Amy Williamson>triggers in, in space and time,
then once you get to three to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2314-2
00:09:05.267 --> 00:09:08.873
<v Amy Williamson>four of those, then you can
start to try to search for an</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2314-3
00:09:08.873 --> 00:09:10.117
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake location.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-0
00:09:10.707 --> 00:09:14.443
<v Amy Williamson>So this is using just a grid
search right now, and then once</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-1
00:09:14.443 --> 00:09:18.180
<v Amy Williamson>we have an idea of where that
earthquake is located, then we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-2
00:09:18.180 --> 00:09:22.039
<v Amy Williamson>can compute a magnitude and so
this is using scaling relations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-3
00:09:22.039 --> 00:09:25.837
<v Amy Williamson>that take in and that station,
epicenter distance and so that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-4
00:09:25.837 --> 00:09:29.635
<v Amy Williamson>distance is using that location
we just solved for as well as</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-5
00:09:29.635 --> 00:09:33.372
<v Amy Williamson>peak deformation that we see
within the 1st 4 seconds at any</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2400-6
00:09:33.372 --> 00:09:35.087
<v Amy Williamson>of those triggered stations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2466-0
00:09:35.697 --> 00:09:38.987
<v Amy Williamson>I mean then as more data gets
included in as the body waves</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2466-1
00:09:38.987 --> 00:09:42.441
<v Amy Williamson>move further and further from
the source and more stations are</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2466-2
00:09:42.441 --> 00:09:45.677
<v Amy Williamson>triggered and associated, we
continuously recalculate that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2466-3
00:09:45.677 --> 00:09:49.186
<v Amy Williamson>location and magnitude and what
kind of happens is you start to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2466-4
00:09:49.186 --> 00:09:52.750
<v Amy Williamson>get this sort of time series of
earthquake characterizations has</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2466-5
00:09:52.750 --> 00:09:53.957
<v Amy Williamson>more data is included.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2541-0
00:09:55.417 --> 00:09:59.139
<v Amy Williamson>As is it happening, all of this
gets pulled in with any other</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2541-1
00:09:59.139 --> 00:10:02.380
<v Amy Williamson>algorithms that might be
contributing information, so</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2541-2
00:10:02.380 --> 00:10:06.342
<v Amy Williamson>it'd be it from Finder or from G
fast, and these all get combined</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2541-3
00:10:06.342 --> 00:10:10.124
<v Amy Williamson>together into one alert that if
it meets certain magnitude and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2541-4
00:10:10.124 --> 00:10:13.786
<v Amy Williamson>intensity thresholds as well as
couple different checks then</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2541-5
00:10:13.786 --> 00:10:15.527
<v Amy Williamson>that goes out as as an alert.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2592-0
00:10:16.177 --> 00:10:19.201
<v Amy Williamson>So again, it's pretty good
simplified flow, but just to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2592-1
00:10:19.201 --> 00:10:22.604
<v Amy Williamson>kind of understand like on epic
side, sort of the order of how</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2592-2
00:10:22.604 --> 00:10:25.736
<v Amy Williamson>it's solving for its event,
where associates then finds a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2592-3
00:10:25.736 --> 00:10:28.167
<v Amy Williamson>location and then moves on to
the magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2635-0
00:10:31.157 --> 00:10:35.532
<v Amy Williamson>And then when we want to get
that message actually out there</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2635-1
00:10:35.532 --> 00:10:39.979
<v Amy Williamson>so it doesn't shake, alert and
and epic don't send alerts for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2635-2
00:10:39.979 --> 00:10:44.498
<v Amy Williamson>every single earthquake, it has
to meet a certain magnitude in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2635-3
00:10:44.498 --> 00:10:46.507
<v Amy Williamson>shaking intensity threshold.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2662-0
00:10:46.517 --> 00:10:51.272
<v Amy Williamson>And so this falls back onto an
intensity scale where one is not</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2662-1
00:10:51.272 --> 00:10:54.987
<v Amy Williamson>felt all the way down to 10
being extreme damage.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2677-0
00:10:55.587 --> 00:11:00.337
<v Amy Williamson>And right now how this works is
there in order to send an alert.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2694-0
00:11:00.867 --> 00:11:04.597
<v Amy Williamson>I'm sorry, we are still kind of
pushed to to phone application.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2732-0
00:11:04.607 --> 00:11:08.663
<v Amy Williamson>It's you must have at least a
magnitude 5 earthquake and then</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2732-1
00:11:08.663 --> 00:11:12.916
<v Amy Williamson>that alert ideally would be sent
to the area that feels at least</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2732-2
00:11:12.916 --> 00:11:14.617
<v Amy Williamson>an MI4 or greater shaking.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-0
00:11:15.727 --> 00:11:19.694
<v Amy Williamson>There are also additional third
party apps such as Android</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-1
00:11:19.694 --> 00:11:24.065
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake alerts and my Shake,
and I think a couple others that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-2
00:11:24.065 --> 00:11:28.166
<v Amy Williamson>takes some of that shake alert
information and then they can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-3
00:11:28.166 --> 00:11:32.134
<v Amy Williamson>use a slightly lower magnitude
threshold for people to who</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-4
00:11:32.134 --> 00:11:36.235
<v Amy Williamson>subscribe to those systems and
so some of those go down to a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-5
00:11:36.235 --> 00:11:40.539
<v Amy Williamson>magnitude 4.5 and then they send
out for intensity 3 or greater</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2808-6
00:11:40.539 --> 00:11:41.077
<v Amy Williamson>shaking.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-0
00:11:41.087 --> 00:11:44.568
<v Amy Williamson>So it's a slightly larger
footprint for people who get</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-1
00:11:44.568 --> 00:11:48.366
<v Amy Williamson>those alerts and then it's
important to note that for a lot</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-2
00:11:48.366 --> 00:11:52.354
<v Amy Williamson>of earthquakes, you can still
feel sort of weak, but maybe not</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-3
00:11:52.354 --> 00:11:56.215
<v Amy Williamson>damaging, shaking from either a
small earthquake that you're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-4
00:11:56.215 --> 00:11:59.950
<v Amy Williamson>really close to or a larger
earthquake where you're out of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-5
00:11:59.950 --> 00:12:03.684
<v Amy Williamson>those kind of MI zones and that
those don't always warrant</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2883-6
00:12:03.684 --> 00:12:04.887
<v Amy Williamson>issuing and alerts.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2907-0
00:12:05.177 --> 00:12:08.993
<v Amy Williamson>So it's this kind of play
between magnitude and intensity</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2907-1
00:12:08.993 --> 00:12:12.677
<v Amy Williamson>as well as your location for how
that gets alerted out.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2925-0
00:12:16.877 --> 00:12:21.767
<v Amy Williamson>So I guess I said I work
primarily with Epic and Epic.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2939-0
00:12:21.777 --> 00:12:26.107
<v Amy Williamson>Has this really large data set
now of detected earthquakes?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2951-0
00:12:26.417 --> 00:12:29.551
<v Amy Williamson>Again, so these are not all
earthquakes that eventually get</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2951-1
00:12:29.551 --> 00:12:29.917
<v Amy Williamson>alerts.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2977-0
00:12:29.927 --> 00:12:33.737
<v Amy Williamson>The majority of these are are
really small magnitudes, but I</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/2977-1
00:12:33.737 --> 00:12:36.797
<v Amy Williamson>pulled sort of from our DM
review to a recently.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3000-0
00:12:36.807 --> 00:12:41.381
<v Amy Williamson>We had like over 17,000
earthquakes that have a match</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3000-1
00:12:41.381 --> 00:12:45.277
<v Amy Williamson>between Epic and the Comcast
since fall 2018.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3002-0
00:12:45.917 --> 00:12:46.107
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3013-0
00:12:46.117 --> 00:12:48.127
<v Amy Williamson>And the majority of these are
very small.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-0
00:12:48.687 --> 00:12:52.433
<v Amy Williamson>And so they're not being issued
out as alerts, but the the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-1
00:12:52.433 --> 00:12:56.496
<v Amy Williamson>really the benefit of looking at
all of these events, including</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-2
00:12:56.496 --> 00:13:00.369
<v Amy Williamson>even the small ones is now we
have this really rich data set</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-3
00:13:00.369 --> 00:13:04.242
<v Amy Williamson>of triggers and attempts at
locations and magnitudes and all</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-4
00:13:04.242 --> 00:13:08.242
<v Amy Williamson>of this information that we can
then look at to see if there's</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-5
00:13:08.242 --> 00:13:11.987
<v Amy Williamson>ways that we can improve the
algorithm, lessen alert times</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3104-6
00:13:11.987 --> 00:13:15.797
<v Amy Williamson>and improve different features
that go out to those alerts.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3118-0
00:13:17.407 --> 00:13:20.901
<v Amy Williamson>I'm into the kind of the two
main ones that feel come from</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3118-1
00:13:20.901 --> 00:13:21.197
<v Amy Williamson>epic.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3125-0
00:13:21.207 --> 00:13:23.877
<v Amy Williamson>Are that location and then that
magnitude?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3169-0
00:13:24.357 --> 00:13:28.024
<v Amy Williamson>And so if I grab all of those
events of all the different</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3169-1
00:13:28.024 --> 00:13:31.819
<v Amy Williamson>magnitude ranges and we just
kind of look at how we do with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3169-2
00:13:31.819 --> 00:13:35.423
<v Amy Williamson>our location through those
events, we do really well for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3169-3
00:13:35.423 --> 00:13:37.257
<v Amy Williamson>the majority of those events.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3219-0
00:13:37.627 --> 00:13:40.980
<v Amy Williamson>But there are some spots where
we get some elevator location</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3219-1
00:13:40.980 --> 00:13:44.389
<v Amy Williamson>errors, so errors into the 10s
to even hundreds of kilometers</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3219-2
00:13:44.389 --> 00:13:47.853
<v Amy Williamson>that we want to look at and see
if there's any way that we can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3219-3
00:13:47.853 --> 00:13:49.777
<v Amy Williamson>sort of lower that location
error.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3231-0
00:13:51.207 --> 00:13:53.387
<v Amy Williamson>And then on the other side is
our magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3247-0
00:13:53.397 --> 00:13:58.607
<v Amy Williamson>So this also, umm, helps it
determine that extent of our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3247-1
00:13:58.607 --> 00:13:59.887
<v Amy Williamson>alerting area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3265-0
00:13:59.897 --> 00:14:03.070
<v Amy Williamson>And so we want a magnitude
error, ideally as close to to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3265-1
00:14:03.070 --> 00:14:04.017
<v Amy Williamson>zero as possible.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3291-0
00:14:04.027 --> 00:14:07.644
<v Amy Williamson>But when we look at these, we
can see that we're have a bit of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3291-1
00:14:07.644 --> 00:14:10.917
<v Amy Williamson>an overestimate over the large
body of offer magnitudes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3311-0
00:14:10.927 --> 00:14:15.163
<v Amy Williamson>So how can we really improve
these and can we get these kind</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3311-1
00:14:15.163 --> 00:14:17.247
<v Amy Williamson>of closer to essentially to 0?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3331-0
00:14:20.667 --> 00:14:24.137
<v Amy Williamson>So kind of the first bit of this
is is looking at locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3358-0
00:14:24.217 --> 00:14:29.799
<v Amy Williamson>And So what I did here was I
pulled all of the epic matched</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3358-1
00:14:29.799 --> 00:14:33.427
<v Amy Williamson>events that here between 3.5 and
over.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3377-0
00:14:33.437 --> 00:14:37.698
<v Amy Williamson>And I did this for four year
span from 2018 to at some point</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3377-1
00:14:37.698 --> 00:14:38.257
<v Amy Williamson>in 2022.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3416-0
00:14:39.167 --> 00:14:42.812
<v Amy Williamson>So I removed those really small
magnitude events from this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3416-1
00:14:42.812 --> 00:14:46.642
<v Amy Williamson>particular data set, and I also
removed events there that had</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3416-2
00:14:46.642 --> 00:14:49.917
<v Amy Williamson>very obvious poor triggers that
got included in and.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3447-0
00:14:49.927 --> 00:14:53.656
<v Amy Williamson>The idea here was to look at
cases where all of the data</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3447-1
00:14:53.656 --> 00:14:57.910
<v Amy Williamson>that's going into Epic is really
good, but for some reason we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3447-2
00:14:57.910 --> 00:15:00.527
<v Amy Williamson>still getting really bad
locations out.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3467-0
00:15:00.867 --> 00:15:04.125
<v Amy Williamson>I'm trying to see if we can
identify any causes and find any</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3467-1
00:15:04.125 --> 00:15:05.727
<v Amy Williamson>fixes to sort of improve this.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-0
00:15:07.427 --> 00:15:11.284
<v Amy Williamson>And So what this is kind of
what's shown over on on the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-1
00:15:11.284 --> 00:15:15.416
<v Amy Williamson>right and so this is just those
events and I've done a very</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-2
00:15:15.416 --> 00:15:19.273
<v Amy Williamson>coarse coloring, green being
generally a good location,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-3
00:15:19.273 --> 00:15:23.199
<v Amy Williamson>yellows being not that great
into oranges and Reds being</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-4
00:15:23.199 --> 00:15:27.400
<v Amy Williamson>being bad locations and what
kind of stands out is this area</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-5
00:15:27.400 --> 00:15:31.326
<v Amy Williamson>offshore kind of a Northern
California that has a lot of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3560-6
00:15:31.326 --> 00:15:35.527
<v Amy Williamson>really bad locations, a lot of
100 to 200 kilometer offsets.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3599-0
00:15:37.057 --> 00:15:40.860
<v Amy Williamson>And so it seems like there's a
lot of our offshore earthquakes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3599-1
00:15:40.860 --> 00:15:44.602
<v Amy Williamson>and earthquakes right on the
edge of our network that we were</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3599-2
00:15:44.602 --> 00:15:45.387
<v Amy Williamson>doing poorly.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3639-0
00:15:45.397 --> 00:15:49.551
<v Amy Williamson>And this was the point that if I
looked at the overall location</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3639-1
00:15:49.551 --> 00:15:53.706
<v Amy Williamson>errors over this time frame, if
I looked at all location errors</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3639-2
00:15:53.706 --> 00:15:56.887
<v Amy Williamson>for all epic events, it was
about 10 kilometers.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3643-0
00:15:57.387 --> 00:15:57.817
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3677-0
00:15:58.387 --> 00:16:01.861
<v Amy Williamson>But if I then broke it out and
said alright, let's look at only</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3677-1
00:16:01.861 --> 00:16:05.171
<v Amy Williamson>the errors offshore and this
triple junction area, then that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3677-2
00:16:05.171 --> 00:16:07.777
<v Amy Williamson>moves all the way up to close to
60 kilometers.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3720-0
00:16:08.847 --> 00:16:12.544
<v Amy Williamson>So we really wanted to see if we
can improve that because having</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3720-1
00:16:12.544 --> 00:16:16.128
<v Amy Williamson>a poor location would mean we
would have an incorrect area for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3720-2
00:16:16.128 --> 00:16:19.541
<v Amy Williamson>issuing an alerts and often
incorrect magnitudes associated</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3720-3
00:16:19.541 --> 00:16:20.167
<v Amy Williamson>with those.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3745-0
00:16:22.927 --> 00:16:28.079
<v Amy Williamson>And so if we kind of look at
kind of cartoon of what's going</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3745-1
00:16:28.079 --> 00:16:30.697
<v Amy Williamson>on in the triple junction area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3777-0
00:16:31.537 --> 00:16:35.221
<v Amy Williamson>Umm what I have here is sort of
the output of that grid search</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3777-1
00:16:35.221 --> 00:16:38.731
<v Amy Williamson>and I'm just kind of showing the
areas that have really low</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3777-2
00:16:38.731 --> 00:16:40.427
<v Amy Williamson>misfit from that grid search.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3800-0
00:16:40.437 --> 00:16:44.779
<v Amy Williamson>So the search is trying to match
trigger times to potential</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3800-1
00:16:44.779 --> 00:16:48.687
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake locations to really
high misfits in white.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3803-0
00:16:49.217 --> 00:16:49.697
<v Amy Williamson>And So what?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3807-0
00:16:49.707 --> 00:16:50.067
<v Amy Williamson>I'm happy.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3822-0
00:16:50.077 --> 00:16:53.234
<v Amy Williamson>Here is the first stations that
often get triggered from an</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3822-1
00:16:53.234 --> 00:16:54.287
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake offshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3887-0
00:16:54.297 --> 00:16:58.295
<v Amy Williamson>Here are kind of out where the
coast just out a little bit and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3887-1
00:16:58.295 --> 00:17:02.039
<v Amy Williamson>do I have those just kind of
colored in black and what you</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3887-2
00:17:02.039 --> 00:17:05.973
<v Amy Williamson>can see with the really limited
data here is that there's one</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3887-3
00:17:05.973 --> 00:17:10.098
<v Amy Williamson>area that kind of moves from the
coastline down to the southwest</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3887-4
00:17:10.098 --> 00:17:13.017
<v Amy Williamson>and it'll has essentially
equally low misfit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3949-0
00:17:13.447 --> 00:17:16.910
<v Amy Williamson>And So what the grid search does
is it's just going to pick the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3949-1
00:17:16.910 --> 00:17:20.103
<v Amy Williamson>spot with the lowest misfit
possible, which is going to be</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3949-2
00:17:20.103 --> 00:17:23.621
<v Amy Williamson>somewhere along this line moving
kind of offshore or if, uh, and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3949-3
00:17:23.621 --> 00:17:26.976
<v Amy Williamson>it will continue to move further
and further offshore or, you</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3949-4
00:17:26.976 --> 00:17:30.007
<v Amy Williamson>know, depending on how large of
a grid search you have.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/3968-0
00:17:32.427 --> 00:17:36.677
<v Amy Williamson>And so if the easiest first
solution is just add more data.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4011-0
00:17:36.737 --> 00:17:40.835
<v Amy Williamson>So if we wait a few more seconds
and we get a few more stations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4011-1
00:17:40.835 --> 00:17:44.613
<v Amy Williamson>kind of in this area and the
problem is that that offshore</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4011-2
00:17:44.613 --> 00:17:48.391
<v Amy Williamson>misfit area is still really
unresolved, we still have that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4011-3
00:17:48.391 --> 00:17:51.017
<v Amy Williamson>large, low misfit line jetting
offshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4030-0
00:17:51.227 --> 00:17:54.575
<v Amy Williamson>And this is because a lot of
this data is because it's still</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4030-1
00:17:54.575 --> 00:17:56.497
<v Amy Williamson>located sort of in that same
spot.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4067-0
00:17:56.507 --> 00:18:00.868
<v Amy Williamson>It's not really adding any new
information to our grid search</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4067-1
00:18:00.868 --> 00:18:05.018
<v Amy Williamson>and so it becomes very easy to
just pick a point somewhere</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4067-2
00:18:05.018 --> 00:18:09.027
<v Amy Williamson>offshore even when the location
might be much closer in.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4116-0
00:18:09.417 --> 00:18:13.059
<v Amy Williamson>I'm into this particular example
epic push the location 50</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4116-1
00:18:13.059 --> 00:18:16.824
<v Amy Williamson>kilometers offshore for that
sort of early alert and then it</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4116-2
00:18:16.824 --> 00:18:20.405
<v Amy Williamson>will move its grid to that
offshore location to rerun and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4116-3
00:18:20.405 --> 00:18:22.627
<v Amy Williamson>kind of continue to March
westward.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4148-0
00:18:24.097 --> 00:18:29.226
<v Amy Williamson>Now this can sort of be fixed if
we had more data, you know</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4148-1
00:18:29.226 --> 00:18:34.612
<v Amy Williamson>further to the North and South
that would kind of increase our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4148-2
00:18:34.612 --> 00:18:36.407
<v Amy Williamson>coverage of the area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4168-0
00:18:36.417 --> 00:18:40.069
<v Amy Williamson>But the problem with that for
early warning is now we have</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4168-1
00:18:40.069 --> 00:18:42.917
<v Amy Williamson>completely missed the timeliness
of an alert.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4196-0
00:18:42.977 --> 00:18:46.208
<v Amy Williamson>And so it does very little good
for anyone that would have</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4196-1
00:18:46.208 --> 00:18:49.658
<v Amy Williamson>actually wanted to have an alert
for damaging shaking for this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4196-2
00:18:49.658 --> 00:18:49.987
<v Amy Williamson>event.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4227-0
00:18:52.807 --> 00:18:56.855
<v Amy Williamson>Just to compare this offshore
events, this is sort of its own</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4227-1
00:18:56.855 --> 00:19:00.577
<v Amy Williamson>unique scenario and we don't
typically see this onshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4241-0
00:19:01.187 --> 00:19:05.323
<v Amy Williamson>So as a comparison, this is just
an earthquake that occurs in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4241-1
00:19:05.323 --> 00:19:06.657
<v Amy Williamson>Southern California.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4250-0
00:19:06.667 --> 00:19:08.117
<v Amy Williamson>It's in the middle of the
network.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4289-0
00:19:08.127 --> 00:19:11.860
<v Amy Williamson>We have plenty of stations
nearby and rather than have this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4289-1
00:19:11.860 --> 00:19:15.843
<v Amy Williamson>long kind of smeared out misfit
profile, we have just basically</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4289-2
00:19:15.843 --> 00:19:19.577
<v Amy Williamson>concentric down to a bull's eye
that has our little misfit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4302-0
00:19:19.967 --> 00:19:21.637
<v Amy Williamson>And so we typically do a really
good job.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4312-0
00:19:21.957 --> 00:19:25.027
<v Amy Williamson>These onshore events are getting
good locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4320-0
00:19:25.037 --> 00:19:27.257
<v Amy Williamson>So on is the data going in is
good.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4357-0
00:19:29.357 --> 00:19:32.521
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, So what we have to do here
is we can't really wait for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4357-1
00:19:32.521 --> 00:19:35.790
<v Amy Williamson>these offshore events for more
data from more stations up and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4357-2
00:19:35.790 --> 00:19:38.427
<v Amy Williamson>down the coast because that
hurts our timeliness.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4372-0
00:19:38.757 --> 00:19:42.031
<v Amy Williamson>So we need to say in these
initial alerts when data is</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4372-1
00:19:42.031 --> 00:19:42.507
<v Amy Williamson>limited.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4404-0
00:19:42.517 --> 00:19:46.840
<v Amy Williamson>Is there any other information
that we can pull in to the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4404-1
00:19:46.840 --> 00:19:51.610
<v Amy Williamson>alerts to help limit that large
area of low misfit or that area</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4404-2
00:19:51.610 --> 00:19:52.877
<v Amy Williamson>of nonuniqueness?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4406-0
00:19:53.917 --> 00:19:54.287
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4477-0
00:19:54.297 --> 00:19:58.096
<v Amy Williamson>And so one thing that we have
been trying is that we know we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4477-1
00:19:58.096 --> 00:20:01.957
<v Amy Williamson>have an extensive catalog of
past events in the West Coast US</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4477-2
00:20:01.957 --> 00:20:05.506
<v Amy Williamson>can we use some of this
information basically as a prior</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4477-3
00:20:05.506 --> 00:20:09.368
<v Amy Williamson>information to our to our grid
search algorithm and basically</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4477-4
00:20:09.368 --> 00:20:13.104
<v Amy Williamson>use it as a weight to help rein
in some of those really bad</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4477-5
00:20:13.104 --> 00:20:13.727
<v Amy Williamson>locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4492-0
00:20:14.687 --> 00:20:18.847
<v Amy Williamson>And what we do is we take a pass
catalog of earthquakes in the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4492-1
00:20:18.847 --> 00:20:19.177
<v Amy Williamson>area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-0
00:20:19.327 --> 00:20:23.110
<v Amy Williamson>We treat each one of these as a
point in a kernel density</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-1
00:20:23.110 --> 00:20:27.286
<v Amy Williamson>estimate, and all we do is kind
of sum these together to create</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-2
00:20:27.286 --> 00:20:31.591
<v Amy Williamson>sort of this map of high and low
seismicity, and we use this as a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-3
00:20:31.591 --> 00:20:35.570
<v Amy Williamson>prior weighting in our grid
search on the idea here is areas</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-4
00:20:35.570 --> 00:20:39.680
<v Amy Williamson>that have more seismicity have a
higher value, areas that have</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-5
00:20:39.680 --> 00:20:43.399
<v Amy Williamson>essentially no seismicity in
contemporary history have a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4571-6
00:20:43.399 --> 00:20:44.247
<v Amy Williamson>lower number.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4600-0
00:20:44.967 --> 00:20:49.542
<v Amy Williamson>Though not zero, but just kind
of lower and then we can update</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4600-1
00:20:49.542 --> 00:20:53.537
<v Amy Williamson>this catalog over time to
incorporate more earthquakes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4600-2
00:20:53.537 --> 00:20:54.917
<v Amy Williamson>that have occurred.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4607-0
00:20:54.927 --> 00:20:56.577
<v Amy Williamson>Since you know in the past
couple of years.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4646-0
00:20:58.387 --> 00:21:02.543
<v Amy Williamson>And so kind of reformulating how
we do that location then is we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4646-1
00:21:02.543 --> 00:21:06.570
<v Amy Williamson>take that misfit and what we do
is we kind of just reorganize</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4646-2
00:21:06.570 --> 00:21:09.817
<v Amy Williamson>the question from a low misfit
into a likelihood.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4700-0
00:21:10.127 --> 00:21:13.419
<v Amy Williamson>So rather than have something
that can have misfits</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4700-1
00:21:13.419 --> 00:21:16.837
<v Amy Williamson>approaching 0 to high Misfits
approaching essentially</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4700-2
00:21:16.837 --> 00:21:20.889
<v Amy Williamson>Infinity, we bracket that says a
0 to one and say anywhere that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4700-3
00:21:20.889 --> 00:21:24.181
<v Amy Williamson>has really high misfit
approaches 0, and then we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4700-4
00:21:24.181 --> 00:21:25.637
<v Amy Williamson>that has it really low?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4710-0
00:21:25.647 --> 00:21:29.157
<v Amy Williamson>Misfit is is 1, so it's the same
information.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4722-0
00:21:29.167 --> 00:21:31.407
<v Amy Williamson>We're just kind of flipping it
in, bracketing it.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4739-0
00:21:32.217 --> 00:21:35.781
<v Amy Williamson>Uh, we take that prior
seismicity and we merge these</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4739-1
00:21:35.781 --> 00:21:36.387
<v Amy Williamson>together.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4787-0
00:21:36.397 --> 00:21:41.686
<v Amy Williamson>And the idea here then, is that
anywhere that has a a low misfit</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4787-1
00:21:41.686 --> 00:21:46.732
<v Amy Williamson>in our our low misfit in our
grid search here that also has a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4787-2
00:21:46.732 --> 00:21:51.696
<v Amy Williamson>high half seismicity is going to
be slightly uploaded in our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4787-3
00:21:51.696 --> 00:21:52.917
<v Amy Williamson>final solution.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4817-0
00:21:53.167 --> 00:21:57.305
<v Amy Williamson>And anywhere that does not have
that prior is just sort of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4817-1
00:21:57.305 --> 00:22:01.444
<v Amy Williamson>downweighted and then we can
pick between within this what</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4817-2
00:22:01.444 --> 00:22:02.917
<v Amy Williamson>our highest value is.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4865-0
00:22:03.067 --> 00:22:06.592
<v Amy Williamson>And so what's shown here is that
otherwise we would have this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4865-1
00:22:06.592 --> 00:22:10.117
<v Amy Williamson>event that gets pushed really
far offshore and we can instead</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4865-2
00:22:10.117 --> 00:22:13.870
<v Amy Williamson>move it much closer to where the
earthquake actually is occurring</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4865-3
00:22:13.870 --> 00:22:15.917
<v Amy Williamson>based on just using this
weighting.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4908-0
00:22:17.937 --> 00:22:21.676
<v Amy Williamson>And we wanna do, although a lot
of checks to make sure one that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4908-1
00:22:21.676 --> 00:22:25.416
<v Amy Williamson>we don't overweight and always
pull all of our events into just</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4908-2
00:22:25.416 --> 00:22:28.747
<v Amy Williamson>the spot that had the highest
past size medicity and we.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4941-0
00:22:29.077 --> 00:22:31.978
<v Amy Williamson>But we have noticed really
hasn't been an issue because</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4941-1
00:22:31.978 --> 00:22:35.242
<v Amy Williamson>we're still always have to have
an area that had an originally</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4941-2
00:22:35.242 --> 00:22:37.107
<v Amy Williamson>sort of low misfit high
likelihood.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4972-0
00:22:37.417 --> 00:22:40.591
<v Amy Williamson>And so I'm kind of showing an
example here that we are</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4972-1
00:22:40.591 --> 00:22:43.939
<v Amy Williamson>offshore, but a bit South of
this sort of problem, triple</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/4972-2
00:22:43.939 --> 00:22:44.747
<v Amy Williamson>junction area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5016-0
00:22:44.757 --> 00:22:48.547
<v Amy Williamson>And so this is an earthquake
that occurred in an area that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5016-1
00:22:48.547 --> 00:22:52.338
<v Amy Williamson>did not have a lot of past
seismicity but has two zones of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5016-2
00:22:52.338 --> 00:22:56.257
<v Amy Williamson>basically higher weight 1 to the
north and one to the South.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5040-0
00:22:56.867 --> 00:23:00.159
<v Amy Williamson>And then even with this, because
these are not in areas that had</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5040-1
00:23:00.159 --> 00:23:03.147
<v Amy Williamson>a high likelihood, they don't
get weighted quite the same.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5064-0
00:23:03.157 --> 00:23:06.127
<v Amy Williamson>And so it kind of retains our
our earthquake sort of in that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5064-1
00:23:06.127 --> 00:23:08.707
<v Amy Williamson>spot that we already had a
fairly good solution for.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5123-0
00:23:11.167 --> 00:23:15.122
<v Amy Williamson>And then if we look kind of in
the onshore area that we already</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5123-1
00:23:15.122 --> 00:23:18.707
<v Amy Williamson>have good solutions, we see that
even adding in the prior</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5123-2
00:23:18.707 --> 00:23:22.538
<v Amy Williamson>seismicity because we already
have that one very well defined</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5123-3
00:23:22.538 --> 00:23:26.308
<v Amy Williamson>kind of bullseye likelihood
adding in any additional weights</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5123-4
00:23:26.308 --> 00:23:28.657
<v Amy Williamson>isn't going to change anything
there.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5168-0
00:23:28.667 --> 00:23:31.958
<v Amy Williamson>And so we are able to kind of
maintain our good grid search</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5168-1
00:23:31.958 --> 00:23:35.415
<v Amy Williamson>results in our high density or
high station density areas even</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5168-2
00:23:35.415 --> 00:23:38.597
<v Amy Williamson>with the waiting and we're able
to kind of improve things</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5168-3
00:23:38.597 --> 00:23:40.517
<v Amy Williamson>offshore where we don't have
that.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5174-0
00:23:41.077 --> 00:23:41.807
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah, initial data.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5177-0
00:23:43.857 --> 00:23:44.087
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5213-0
00:23:44.097 --> 00:23:48.216
<v Amy Williamson>And so kind of we we did was we
then ran through this for all of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5213-1
00:23:48.216 --> 00:23:52.209
<v Amy Williamson>those test events, we kind of
recalculated using this this new</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5213-2
00:23:52.209 --> 00:23:53.287
<v Amy Williamson>weighting scheme.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5279-0
00:23:53.297 --> 00:23:56.847
<v Amy Williamson>And so just as a reminder, this
is what that looks like before</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5279-1
00:23:56.847 --> 00:24:00.454
<v Amy Williamson>and that triple junction where
we have numerous events that all</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5279-2
00:24:00.454 --> 00:24:03.666
<v Amy Williamson>got pushed really far to the
West as well as a couple of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5279-3
00:24:03.666 --> 00:24:06.991
<v Amy Williamson>events kind of in the southern
border that also did a very</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5279-4
00:24:06.991 --> 00:24:10.147
<v Amy Williamson>similar kind of pushing away
from the network solution.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5333-0
00:24:11.227 --> 00:24:14.985
<v Amy Williamson>And when we recalculate using
this sort of weighted system,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5333-1
00:24:14.985 --> 00:24:18.556
<v Amy Williamson>we're really able to pull a lot
of those events back in,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5333-2
00:24:18.556 --> 00:24:22.189
<v Amy Williamson>particularly in the triple
junction, but also in areas in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5333-3
00:24:22.189 --> 00:24:26.198
<v Amy Williamson>the within Southern California
and northern Mexico that we were</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5333-4
00:24:26.198 --> 00:24:28.767
<v Amy Williamson>doing this sort of edge of
network poll.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5367-0
00:24:31.187 --> 00:24:34.986
<v Amy Williamson>And So what this ends up
happening is within that triple</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5367-1
00:24:34.986 --> 00:24:38.851
<v Amy Williamson>junction area, we reduce our
location error from what was</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5367-2
00:24:38.851 --> 00:24:42.317
<v Amy Williamson>originally close to 60
kilometers to 15 kilometers.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5395-0
00:24:42.787 --> 00:24:46.151
<v Amy Williamson>So there's still are some that
aren't always that great, but</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5395-1
00:24:46.151 --> 00:24:49.351
<v Amy Williamson>they are significantly improved
compared to where we were</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5395-2
00:24:49.351 --> 00:24:49.737
<v Amy Williamson>before.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5414-0
00:24:50.347 --> 00:24:53.426
<v Amy Williamson>And then the areas outside that
triple junction went from 4</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5414-1
00:24:53.426 --> 00:24:55.017
<v Amy Williamson>kilometers to three kilometers.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5446-0
00:24:55.027 --> 00:24:58.211
<v Amy Williamson>So at that point, we're
essentially not infect affecting</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5446-1
00:24:58.211 --> 00:25:01.507
<v Amy Williamson>or just slightly improving on
our location, but this is an</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5446-2
00:25:01.507 --> 00:25:04.077
<v Amy Williamson>area where we were already doing
pretty good.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5475-0
00:25:04.087 --> 00:25:07.905
<v Amy Williamson>So our goal there was mostly
just did not make anything not</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5475-1
00:25:07.905 --> 00:25:11.851
<v Amy Williamson>to, umm, make anything worse
there at the expense of offshore</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5475-2
00:25:11.851 --> 00:25:12.297
<v Amy Williamson>events.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5537-0
00:25:15.507 --> 00:25:19.183
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, so this is some work that
we've been recently running</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5537-1
00:25:19.183 --> 00:25:23.046
<v Amy Williamson>through a larger test suite of
past events as well as running</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5537-2
00:25:23.046 --> 00:25:26.037
<v Amy Williamson>sort of in a a real time and
offline mode here.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5554-0
00:25:26.197 --> 00:25:29.831
<v Amy Williamson>And we think that it shows a lot
of promise, partially because of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5554-1
00:25:29.831 --> 00:25:30.657
<v Amy Williamson>its simplicity.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5576-0
00:25:31.227 --> 00:25:33.740
<v Amy Williamson>It's helping us to match more
events that we otherwise we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5576-1
00:25:33.740 --> 00:25:36.047
<v Amy Williamson>missing because we're being
pulled really far offshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5601-0
00:25:38.467 --> 00:25:41.355
<v Amy Williamson>And so it is something that we
are hoping that we can try to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5601-1
00:25:41.355 --> 00:25:42.397
<v Amy Williamson>implement within EPIC.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5667-0
00:25:43.247 --> 00:25:46.399
<v Amy Williamson>There are other pieces to this
because I mentioned it is a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5667-1
00:25:46.399 --> 00:25:49.604
<v Amy Williamson>pretty simplified approach, so
there's some things that now</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5667-2
00:25:49.604 --> 00:25:52.917
<v Amy Williamson>that we have done some testing
on on this current version, we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5667-3
00:25:52.917 --> 00:25:56.336
<v Amy Williamson>can start to look at the utility
of and one of those is whether</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5667-4
00:25:56.336 --> 00:25:59.702
<v Amy Williamson>or not we should include a time
dependent weighting to some of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5667-5
00:25:59.702 --> 00:26:00.557
<v Amy Williamson>our earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5674-0
00:26:00.567 --> 00:26:03.147
<v Amy Williamson>Right now, everything is
essentially time independent.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5704-0
00:26:03.217 --> 00:26:07.135
<v Amy Williamson>All of our past seismicity that
goes into that waiting are</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5704-1
00:26:07.135 --> 00:26:11.120
<v Amy Williamson>equally the same regardless of
if it was an earthquake from</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5704-2
00:26:11.120 --> 00:26:12.847
<v Amy Williamson>yesterday or 10 years ago.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5750-0
00:26:13.347 --> 00:26:17.303
<v Amy Williamson>So we can look at whether or not
we have any improvement using</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5750-1
00:26:17.303 --> 00:26:21.071
<v Amy Williamson>either of those weightings at
different depth dependence to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5750-2
00:26:21.071 --> 00:26:25.216
<v Amy Williamson>our earthquakes, or including in
different weights based on known</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5750-3
00:26:25.216 --> 00:26:27.477
<v Amy Williamson>faults or any known as one
hazards.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5765-0
00:26:27.767 --> 00:26:30.258
<v Amy Williamson>So there's some kind of future
directions that we want to look</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5765-1
00:26:30.258 --> 00:26:30.377
<v Amy Williamson>at.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5776-0
00:26:31.217 --> 00:26:34.441
<v Amy Williamson>We're trying to understand and
estimate these offshore</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5776-1
00:26:34.441 --> 00:26:35.027
<v Amy Williamson>locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5783-0
00:26:37.557 --> 00:26:37.887
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5821-0
00:26:37.957 --> 00:26:41.791
<v Amy Williamson>So if you kind of look though, a
lot of these poor locations, we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5821-1
00:26:41.791 --> 00:26:45.508
<v Amy Williamson>remember that sort of flow chart
that we're trying to explain,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5821-2
00:26:45.508 --> 00:26:49.107
<v Amy Williamson>epic that location, then get
used to calculate or magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5832-0
00:26:49.197 --> 00:26:51.927
<v Amy Williamson>So we have a really bad
location, particularly offshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5862-0
00:26:52.277 --> 00:26:55.995
<v Amy Williamson>Then we often have paired with
that it really high magnitude</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5862-1
00:26:55.995 --> 00:26:59.774
<v Amy Williamson>error and so here on the right
we have those same earthquakes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5862-2
00:26:59.774 --> 00:27:01.847
<v Amy Williamson>that were pulled really far
away.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5878-0
00:27:01.937 --> 00:27:05.128
<v Amy Williamson>And what happens then is those
magnitudes end up getting higher</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5878-1
00:27:05.128 --> 00:27:05.677
<v Amy Williamson>and higher.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5881-0
00:27:06.997 --> 00:27:07.257
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5922-0
00:27:07.267 --> 00:27:11.020
<v Amy Williamson>And so we want to see one, how
that location improvement can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5922-1
00:27:11.020 --> 00:27:14.712
<v Amy Williamson>decrease or magnitude error and
also kind of look to see if</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5922-2
00:27:14.712 --> 00:27:17.974
<v Amy Williamson>there are other factors at play
that the cost of our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5922-3
00:27:17.974 --> 00:27:19.697
<v Amy Williamson>overestimates and magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5936-0
00:27:22.197 --> 00:27:24.947
<v Amy Williamson>So just as a quick how do we
calculate magnitude?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5951-0
00:27:25.157 --> 00:27:28.857
<v Amy Williamson>It's based on the station
hypocenter distance and and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/5951-1
00:27:28.857 --> 00:27:30.707
<v Amy Williamson>observed peak displacement.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6000-0
00:27:31.057 --> 00:27:34.443
<v Amy Williamson>That's our PD and our our here
and then we have a set of state</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6000-1
00:27:34.443 --> 00:27:37.883
<v Amy Williamson>of scaling coefficients and so
it's really just that the closer</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6000-2
00:27:37.883 --> 00:27:41.269
<v Amy Williamson>you are to an earthquake, the
larger the peak displacement and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6000-3
00:27:41.269 --> 00:27:43.527
<v Amy Williamson>the further away it decays with
distance.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6023-0
00:27:44.117 --> 00:27:46.525
<v Amy Williamson>And so if you think about
earthquakes, then that get</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6023-1
00:27:46.525 --> 00:27:49.207
<v Amy Williamson>mislocated particularly really
far away from their source.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6051-0
00:27:49.417 --> 00:27:53.411
<v Amy Williamson>What's happening is that station
distant are increases a lot and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6051-1
00:27:53.411 --> 00:27:56.791
<v Amy Williamson>that can really push our
magnitude up and the opposite</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6051-2
00:27:56.791 --> 00:27:57.037
<v Amy Williamson>end.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6094-0
00:27:57.047 --> 00:28:00.517
<v Amy Williamson>Any case where we have an
earthquake, then maybe was far</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6094-1
00:28:00.517 --> 00:28:04.232
<v Amy Williamson>offshore that we mislocated
inland that lowers that distance</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6094-2
00:28:04.232 --> 00:28:08.250
<v Amy Williamson>and that can lower our magnitude
and all of this then affects the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6094-3
00:28:08.250 --> 00:28:10.077
<v Amy Williamson>footprint of that final alert.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6097-0
00:28:12.607 --> 00:28:12.767
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6114-0
00:28:12.887 --> 00:28:17.057
<v Amy Williamson>So the the current scaling was
developed back in 2013.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6147-0
00:28:17.447 --> 00:28:21.658
<v Amy Williamson>And So what I was doing was
using a mix of data that was</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6147-1
00:28:21.658 --> 00:28:26.165
<v Amy Williamson>from California that was real
time but not in an operational</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6147-2
00:28:26.165 --> 00:28:28.677
<v Amy Williamson>sense as well as data from
Japan.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6177-0
00:28:28.767 --> 00:28:32.945
<v Amy Williamson>And so this was looking at
usually the catalog magnitude of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6177-1
00:28:32.945 --> 00:28:36.913
<v Amy Williamson>data at all these different
stations versus the observed</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6177-2
00:28:36.913 --> 00:28:38.167
<v Amy Williamson>peak displacement.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6197-0
00:28:38.297 --> 00:28:40.307
<v Amy Williamson>And by using all of this
together, we can come up with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6197-1
00:28:40.307 --> 00:28:42.061
<v Amy Williamson>some of those scaling
relationships that we see</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6197-2
00:28:42.061 --> 00:28:42.317
<v Amy Williamson>before.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6232-0
00:28:43.497 --> 00:28:47.691
<v Amy Williamson>And so this was a scaling
relation that was really</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6232-1
00:28:47.691 --> 00:28:52.707
<v Amy Williamson>efficient at solving between
sort of the lower magnitude 2's</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6232-2
00:28:52.707 --> 00:28:56.737
<v Amy Williamson>threes and fours with some
slight overestimates.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6258-0
00:28:56.747 --> 00:28:59.647
<v Amy Williamson>Once we moved into five and
sixes, and then once we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6258-1
00:28:59.647 --> 00:29:02.601
<v Amy Williamson>moving out of that point source
earthquake, we start to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6258-2
00:29:02.601 --> 00:29:04.447
<v Amy Williamson>underestimate or magnitudes
again.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6265-0
00:29:07.567 --> 00:29:07.837
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-0
00:29:07.947 --> 00:29:12.284
<v Amy Williamson>So it's also important to note
that for for real time events,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-1
00:29:12.284 --> 00:29:16.621
<v Amy Williamson>because we have this sort of
time series of stations that get</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-2
00:29:16.621 --> 00:29:20.888
<v Amy Williamson>added into our solution and get
associated in, we don't have</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-3
00:29:20.888 --> 00:29:25.365
<v Amy Williamson>just one one magnitude, it ends
up being this time series where</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-4
00:29:25.365 --> 00:29:29.771
<v Amy Williamson>we have an initial one usually
based on three to four stations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-5
00:29:29.771 --> 00:29:34.108
<v Amy Williamson>and then it will continue on as
we get more and more stations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6349-6
00:29:34.108 --> 00:29:36.277
<v Amy Williamson>throughout the entire solution.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6375-0
00:29:36.287 --> 00:29:39.957
<v Amy Williamson>So this is just an example
showing the magnitude as it</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6375-1
00:29:39.957 --> 00:29:43.427
<v Amy Williamson>evolves during the 2022 firmed
Firmdale earthquake.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6381-0
00:29:43.547 --> 00:29:45.277
<v Amy Williamson>This was one that was located
offshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6431-0
00:29:45.287 --> 00:29:49.259
<v Amy Williamson>It had a pretty good location
overall, but we can see just how</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6431-1
00:29:49.259 --> 00:29:53.295
<v Amy Williamson>that magnitude grows with more
station to kind of hit a maximum</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6431-2
00:29:53.295 --> 00:29:57.330
<v Amy Williamson>pretty quickly and then sort of
with even more stations further</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6431-3
00:29:57.330 --> 00:29:59.537
<v Amy Williamson>away sort of settled into a
value.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6439-0
00:29:59.547 --> 00:30:02.287
<v Amy Williamson>And I think close to 6.4 here.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6441-0
00:30:03.347 --> 00:30:03.827
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6490-0
00:30:04.487 --> 00:30:07.685
<v Amy Williamson>And so a lot of the work that
we've been doing is really</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6490-1
00:30:07.685 --> 00:30:10.939
<v Amy Williamson>trying to focus on uh, reducing
residuals at this maximum</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6490-2
00:30:10.939 --> 00:30:14.417
<v Amy Williamson>magnitude estimate because this
is the one that can cause the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6490-3
00:30:14.417 --> 00:30:17.952
<v Amy Williamson>largest potential over alerts
and the largest kind of alerting</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6490-4
00:30:17.952 --> 00:30:18.457
<v Amy Williamson>polygons.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6529-0
00:30:20.947 --> 00:30:24.440
<v Amy Williamson>And So what we did was we
grabbed a lot of that past data</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6529-1
00:30:24.440 --> 00:30:27.752
<v Amy Williamson>and right now we're just
plotting the magnitude versus</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6529-2
00:30:27.752 --> 00:30:31.305
<v Amy Williamson>whatever the Comcast catalog
magnitude for that particular</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6529-3
00:30:31.305 --> 00:30:31.907
<v Amy Williamson>event was.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6592-0
00:30:31.917 --> 00:30:36.110
<v Amy Williamson>And so we're looking here at
that initial, that maximum and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6592-1
00:30:36.110 --> 00:30:40.444
<v Amy Williamson>that final magnitude stage kind
of within the time series for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6592-2
00:30:40.444 --> 00:30:44.777
<v Amy Williamson>all of our events and kind of
focusing again on that maximum,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6592-3
00:30:44.777 --> 00:30:48.831
<v Amy Williamson>what we see is that we have for
all of our magnitudes and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6592-4
00:30:48.831 --> 00:30:51.767
<v Amy Williamson>overestimate by about .3
magnitude units.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6611-0
00:30:51.827 --> 00:30:54.549
<v Amy Williamson>And we also have a fair amount
of scatters or standard</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6611-1
00:30:54.549 --> 00:30:56.677
<v Amy Williamson>deviation is another third of a
magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6643-0
00:30:58.987 --> 00:31:02.819
<v Amy Williamson>But we also kind of wanna look
at this under the lens of what</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6643-1
00:31:02.819 --> 00:31:06.157
<v Amy Williamson>earthquakes and what events
we're sending alerts for.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6679-0
00:31:06.467 --> 00:31:09.200
<v Amy Williamson>You know, if we do really,
really well or really poorly</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6679-1
00:31:09.200 --> 00:31:12.323
<v Amy Williamson>with the magnitude 2 event that
we never send an alert for like</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6679-2
00:31:12.323 --> 00:31:14.617
<v Amy Williamson>that's kind of us focusing on
the wrong thing.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6707-0
00:31:15.407 --> 00:31:19.788
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, so here we are, kind of
then looking at how do we do</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6707-1
00:31:19.788 --> 00:31:23.717
<v Amy Williamson>with magnitudes that are at
least a 4.5 or greater.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6758-0
00:31:23.727 --> 00:31:28.151
<v Amy Williamson>So 4.5 is that that lower
magnitude boundary for some of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6758-1
00:31:28.151 --> 00:31:32.342
<v Amy Williamson>the third party alerting
distributions and so this is</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6758-2
00:31:32.342 --> 00:31:36.843
<v Amy Williamson>showing any time that either
Epic had calculated a 4.5 or</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6758-3
00:31:36.843 --> 00:31:40.957
<v Amy Williamson>greater or the catalog magnitude
was 4.5 or greater.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6782-0
00:31:41.317 --> 00:31:46.112
<v Amy Williamson>And unfortunately, when we get
to just looking at some of those</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6782-1
00:31:46.112 --> 00:31:50.457
<v Amy Williamson>moderate to larger magnitudes,
we overestimate even more.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6823-0
00:31:50.467 --> 00:31:54.990
<v Amy Williamson>So we're closer to .4 magnitude
units, even though our sort of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6823-1
00:31:54.990 --> 00:31:59.730
<v Amy Williamson>initial and final magnitudes are
are pretty good on average, it's</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6823-2
00:31:59.730 --> 00:32:04.181
<v Amy Williamson>really this maximum that we are
trying to to reduce the error</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6823-3
00:32:04.181 --> 00:32:04.397
<v Amy Williamson>on.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6859-0
00:32:07.867 --> 00:32:11.020
<v Amy Williamson>And so if I kind of pulled all
those again, this is using a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6859-1
00:32:11.020 --> 00:32:14.278
<v Amy Williamson>slightly larger data set than
the location study only because</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6859-2
00:32:14.278 --> 00:32:16.117
<v Amy Williamson>I did this one a little bit
later.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6875-0
00:32:16.127 --> 00:32:19.257
<v Amy Williamson>So I kind of backfilled in the
catalog that was using.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6935-0
00:32:20.127 --> 00:32:23.990
<v Amy Williamson>We're focusing on trying to
improve at 4.5 and greater and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6935-1
00:32:23.990 --> 00:32:27.854
<v Amy Williamson>something that if I kind of
looked at a lot of our really,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6935-2
00:32:27.854 --> 00:32:32.110
<v Amy Williamson>really poor magnitude performing
events, something I noticed was</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6935-3
00:32:32.110 --> 00:32:35.515
<v Amy Williamson>kind of without a lot of
surprise is a lot of those</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6935-4
00:32:35.515 --> 00:32:39.117
<v Amy Williamson>events are events that also had
really poor locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6967-0
00:32:39.307 --> 00:32:42.331
<v Amy Williamson>So many of these overestimates
are events that are occurring in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6967-1
00:32:42.331 --> 00:32:45.073
<v Amy Williamson>that triple junction area, and
so in this case we haven't</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/6967-2
00:32:45.073 --> 00:32:46.207
<v Amy Williamson>applied any new waiting.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7000-0
00:32:46.217 --> 00:32:49.888
<v Amy Williamson>This is just epic as epic
behaved in the moment, and so a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7000-1
00:32:49.888 --> 00:32:53.179
<v Amy Williamson>lot of those really poor
locations really drove our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7000-2
00:32:53.179 --> 00:32:56.217
<v Amy Williamson>magnitudes up, sometimes over a
magnitude unit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7003-0
00:32:56.227 --> 00:32:56.527
<v Amy Williamson>From what?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7025-0
00:32:56.837 --> 00:33:01.163
<v Amy Williamson>So that the catalog said and
even some of our underestimates</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7025-1
00:33:01.163 --> 00:33:04.567
<v Amy Williamson>outside of Ridgecrest were also
poor locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7044-0
00:33:04.577 --> 00:33:07.875
<v Amy Williamson>Cases where we moved a magnitude
really inward, even though it</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7044-1
00:33:07.875 --> 00:33:09.917
<v Amy Williamson>was supposed to be something
offshore.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7079-0
00:33:11.527 --> 00:33:15.391
<v Amy Williamson>And so we, so we know this is an
is a source of error and we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7079-1
00:33:15.391 --> 00:33:19.315
<v Amy Williamson>trying to come up with new ways
and location algorithm to to fix</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7079-2
00:33:19.315 --> 00:33:19.617
<v Amy Williamson>this.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7113-0
00:33:19.987 --> 00:33:23.131
<v Amy Williamson>But what we kind of wanted to
see is, are there any other</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7113-1
00:33:23.131 --> 00:33:26.547
<v Amy Williamson>sources of error outside of the
location or any places that we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7113-2
00:33:26.547 --> 00:33:27.577
<v Amy Williamson>want to improve on?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7152-0
00:33:28.087 --> 00:33:31.789
<v Amy Williamson>And So what we did was we
recalculated all of these events</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7152-1
00:33:31.789 --> 00:33:35.303
<v Amy Williamson>where what we did was we
essentially fixed the location</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7152-2
00:33:35.303 --> 00:33:38.629
<v Amy Williamson>to where the, the catalog
magnitude or server by the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7152-3
00:33:38.629 --> 00:33:39.947
<v Amy Williamson>catalog location was.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7161-0
00:33:39.957 --> 00:33:41.287
<v Amy Williamson>And so we basically fixed that.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7193-0
00:33:41.447 --> 00:33:45.202
<v Amy Williamson>Our value in our magnitude
estimate to see which events app</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7193-1
00:33:45.202 --> 00:33:47.642
<v Amy Williamson>after that are still
overestimating or</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7193-2
00:33:47.642 --> 00:33:50.897
<v Amy Williamson>underestimating and and what we
can do to fix this.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7213-0
00:33:51.287 --> 00:33:54.251
<v Amy Williamson>And so what's the first thing
that we see is that our mean</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7213-1
00:33:54.251 --> 00:33:55.557
<v Amy Williamson>error shrinks quite a bit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7267-0
00:33:55.627 --> 00:33:59.978
<v Amy Williamson>So we move down to closer to two
magnitude units and or scatter</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7267-1
00:33:59.978 --> 00:34:04.330
<v Amy Williamson>has reduced a lot, but we want
to look at this data set and see</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7267-2
00:34:04.330 --> 00:34:08.681
<v Amy Williamson>what what can we improve on here
because we still don't want to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7267-3
00:34:08.681 --> 00:34:11.537
<v Amy Williamson>provide an over alert if we can
avoid it.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7271-0
00:34:13.477 --> 00:34:13.727
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-0
00:34:13.737 --> 00:34:17.651
<v Amy Williamson>And so one thing again, if I
pull these kind of corrected</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-1
00:34:17.651 --> 00:34:22.038
<v Amy Williamson>location events and I grabbed or
three largest over alerts, what</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-2
00:34:22.038 --> 00:34:25.750
<v Amy Williamson>I have here is just each
individual stations magnitude</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-3
00:34:25.750 --> 00:34:29.394
<v Amy Williamson>and kind of where it's it's
location is away from the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-4
00:34:29.394 --> 00:34:33.646
<v Amy Williamson>epicenter and something that's
kind of apparent on many of our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-5
00:34:33.646 --> 00:34:37.830
<v Amy Williamson>events is the the magnitude of
the station sort of within the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-6
00:34:37.830 --> 00:34:41.610
<v Amy Williamson>1st 10s of kilometers are almost
always higher than the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7375-7
00:34:41.610 --> 00:34:45.187
<v Amy Williamson>magnitudes from stations that
are much further away.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7422-0
00:34:46.067 --> 00:34:48.977
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, we can see this
particularly in this bottom plot</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7422-1
00:34:48.977 --> 00:34:52.263
<v Amy Williamson>where we have some magnitudes
that are really sit quite high</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7422-2
00:34:52.263 --> 00:34:55.389
<v Amy Williamson>in the kind of dip down, much
closer to where we'd expect</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7422-3
00:34:55.389 --> 00:34:58.137
<v Amy Williamson>them, and it used to be for this
particular event.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7428-0
00:34:59.777 --> 00:35:00.267
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7469-0
00:35:01.547 --> 00:35:05.262
<v Amy Williamson>If we then just sort of plot in
sort of a time series view, all</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7469-1
00:35:05.262 --> 00:35:08.803
<v Amy Williamson>of those events, and here I've
I've picked out three just to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7469-2
00:35:08.803 --> 00:35:11.357
<v Amy Williamson>kind of help us train our eye a
little bit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7487-0
00:35:11.827 --> 00:35:14.700
<v Amy Williamson>I'll have these events that go
through Epic have this sort of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7487-1
00:35:14.700 --> 00:35:16.137
<v Amy Williamson>characteristic magnitude shape.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7496-0
00:35:16.147 --> 00:35:18.297
<v Amy Williamson>Are we sort of start somewhat
lower?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7542-0
00:35:18.567 --> 00:35:22.521
<v Amy Williamson>Sometimes we jut up really high
to high magnitude and as we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7542-1
00:35:22.521 --> 00:35:26.542
<v Amy Williamson>added more and more data, our
magnitudes kind of settle into</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7542-2
00:35:26.542 --> 00:35:30.364
<v Amy Williamson>something with a lot lower
overall magnitude residual and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7542-3
00:35:30.364 --> 00:35:32.737
<v Amy Williamson>we can see this on the right
tools.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7572-0
00:35:32.807 --> 00:35:36.147
<v Amy Williamson>This is again just that
individual station view with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7572-1
00:35:36.147 --> 00:35:40.117
<v Amy Williamson>distance on the X axis and we're
just looking at the residual.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7597-0
00:35:40.127 --> 00:35:44.569
<v Amy Williamson>And so if we're in the first
basically 30 to 50 kilometers,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7597-1
00:35:44.569 --> 00:35:48.197
<v Amy Williamson>those stations are almost always
overestimating.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7626-0
00:35:48.667 --> 00:35:52.580
<v Amy Williamson>And then as we move to our
further and further stations,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7626-1
00:35:52.580 --> 00:35:56.974
<v Amy Williamson>there's a lot more scatter, but
on average they are much closer</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7626-2
00:35:56.974 --> 00:35:57.867
<v Amy Williamson>to to 0 here.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7678-0
00:35:59.647 --> 00:36:03.850
<v Amy Williamson>And so we wanted to to also then
look at is, is there any reason</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7678-1
00:36:03.850 --> 00:36:07.536
<v Amy Williamson>why umm and so one thing we
wanted to do just as a quick</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7678-2
00:36:07.536 --> 00:36:11.545
<v Amy Williamson>sanity check was say, alright,
when are all of these stations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7678-3
00:36:11.545 --> 00:36:12.257
<v Amy Williamson>triggering?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7687-0
00:36:12.267 --> 00:36:14.537
<v Amy Williamson>Are they triggering in line with
the P wave?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7710-0
00:36:14.687 --> 00:36:17.900
<v Amy Williamson>And so here I have all of those
station triggers based on their</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7710-1
00:36:17.900 --> 00:36:19.657
<v Amy Williamson>distance away from the
earthquake.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7740-0
00:36:20.087 --> 00:36:23.666
<v Amy Williamson>When they triggered, corrected
for their origin times, and then</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7740-1
00:36:23.666 --> 00:36:27.022
<v Amy Williamson>starts with some guide bars of
this black dashed line being</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7740-2
00:36:27.022 --> 00:36:28.197
<v Amy Williamson>when we would expect.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7785-0
00:36:28.207 --> 00:36:31.145
<v Amy Williamson>Generally, the P wave to arrive,
the red line being when we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7785-1
00:36:31.145 --> 00:36:34.230
<v Amy Williamson>expect swipe to arrive, and then
they solid lines are just the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7785-2
00:36:34.230 --> 00:36:37.316
<v Amy Williamson>associate algorithm with an epic
that lumps events together if</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7785-3
00:36:37.316 --> 00:36:38.687
<v Amy Williamson>they're within these bounds.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7797-0
00:36:39.567 --> 00:36:42.297
<v Amy Williamson>And what we see is that we do
trigger on the the P wave.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7806-0
00:36:43.097 --> 00:36:45.547
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, which is what we wanted.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7868-0
00:36:46.137 --> 00:36:49.318
<v Amy Williamson>But then if we look at where
we're drawing our peak</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7868-1
00:36:49.318 --> 00:36:53.172
<v Amy Williamson>displacement value, because Epic
will use up to the first four</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7868-2
00:36:53.172 --> 00:36:57.148
<v Amy Williamson>seconds of data, if four station
that's really close by, we have</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7868-3
00:36:57.148 --> 00:37:00.696
<v Amy Williamson>some cases where that peak
displacement is kind of closer</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7868-4
00:37:00.696 --> 00:37:04.367
<v Amy Williamson>to the end of that force seconds
rather than the beginning.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7880-0
00:37:04.777 --> 00:37:06.827
<v Amy Williamson>And so with what that lines up
with?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7921-0
00:37:08.127 --> 00:37:11.576
<v Amy Williamson>Well, this plot here is that
sometimes that means that we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7921-1
00:37:11.576 --> 00:37:14.969
<v Amy Williamson>including in sweave arrivals,
and so our sweave will have a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7921-2
00:37:14.969 --> 00:37:18.475
<v Amy Williamson>was not originally included in
the scaling relationships that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7921-3
00:37:18.475 --> 00:37:19.437
<v Amy Williamson>we currently use.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7964-0
00:37:21.247 --> 00:37:25.311
<v Amy Williamson>And so we were trying to toy
around with, you know, what</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7964-1
00:37:25.311 --> 00:37:29.446
<v Amy Williamson>exactly to do with this and
whether or not we should crop</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7964-2
00:37:29.446 --> 00:37:33.866
<v Amy Williamson>out any data that has an S wave
arrival or rescale, including</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7964-3
00:37:33.866 --> 00:37:34.437
<v Amy Williamson>that in.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7976-0
00:37:34.447 --> 00:37:35.927
<v Amy Williamson>And we've kind of decided on
that.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7988-0
00:37:35.937 --> 00:37:39.052
<v Amy Williamson>We want to rescale our data
knowing that there could be this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/7988-1
00:37:39.052 --> 00:37:40.227
<v Amy Williamson>contamination in there.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8044-0
00:37:40.337 --> 00:37:44.362
<v Amy Williamson>I mean, part of the main reason
why why we want to go that route</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8044-1
00:37:44.362 --> 00:37:48.078
<v Amy Williamson>is that it's really difficult in
the first few seconds with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8044-2
00:37:48.078 --> 00:37:52.103
<v Amy Williamson>limited data to get essentially
a perfect location and without a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8044-3
00:37:52.103 --> 00:37:55.757
<v Amy Williamson>perfect location, we're not
gonna be very good at cropping</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8044-4
00:37:55.757 --> 00:37:57.677
<v Amy Williamson>within those first few seconds.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8067-0
00:37:57.687 --> 00:38:00.965
<v Amy Williamson>Our data to exclude out best
waves and so that causes us to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8067-1
00:38:00.965 --> 00:38:02.987
<v Amy Williamson>have some really unstable
solutions.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8129-0
00:38:02.997 --> 00:38:06.415
<v Amy Williamson>And So what ended up being a
much better route for us knowing</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8129-1
00:38:06.415 --> 00:38:09.833
<v Amy Williamson>that we're in kind of in the
early warning world and we don't</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8129-2
00:38:09.833 --> 00:38:13.472
<v Amy Williamson>have the ability to like look at
events as analysts and and treat</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8129-3
00:38:13.472 --> 00:38:16.835
<v Amy Williamson>all the data beforehand is to
just go ahead and know that we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8129-4
00:38:16.835 --> 00:38:19.757
<v Amy Williamson>have this contamination and and
rescale accordingly.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8151-0
00:38:20.617 --> 00:38:25.071
<v Amy Williamson>And So what we did here was we
followed a similar methodology</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8151-1
00:38:25.071 --> 00:38:27.227
<v Amy Williamson>to that original 2013 scaling.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8156-0
00:38:27.977 --> 00:38:29.527
<v Amy Williamson>But we've done a little bit of.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8168-0
00:38:32.577 --> 00:38:34.647
<v Amy Williamson>Cleaning to kind of generate
that test data set.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8193-0
00:38:35.417 --> 00:38:38.456
<v Amy Williamson>So what we did was we grabbed
all the input data in Epic that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8193-1
00:38:38.456 --> 00:38:40.907
<v Amy Williamson>has already been through that
waveform processor.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8232-0
00:38:41.557 --> 00:38:45.026
<v Amy Williamson>We made sure that all of our
station magnitudes that are used</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8232-1
00:38:45.026 --> 00:38:48.607
<v Amy Williamson>is using the correct location,
so we don't want to include that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8232-2
00:38:48.607 --> 00:38:51.517
<v Amy Williamson>location error and propagate
that into our scaling.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8248-0
00:38:51.527 --> 00:38:54.057
<v Amy Williamson>We wanna make sure that it's all
correct locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8295-0
00:38:54.867 --> 00:38:58.579
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, we wanna make sure that we
remove any observations from a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8295-1
00:38:58.579 --> 00:39:01.643
<v Amy Williamson>scaling that might have
triggered on non earthquake</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8295-2
00:39:01.643 --> 00:39:05.356
<v Amy Williamson>noise and so this can come to
play if there was a bad location</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8295-3
00:39:05.356 --> 00:39:08.597
<v Amy Williamson>and new associations were based
on that poor location.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8327-0
00:39:08.607 --> 00:39:11.787
<v Amy Williamson>Sometimes what happens is you'll
get triggers on noise that just</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8327-1
00:39:11.787 --> 00:39:14.624
<v Amy Williamson>happen to be kind of in line
with everything else, and we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8327-2
00:39:14.624 --> 00:39:15.847
<v Amy Williamson>want to get rid of those.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8363-0
00:39:17.127 --> 00:39:21.245
<v Amy Williamson>And then we want to use stations
that have that full 4 seconds of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8363-1
00:39:21.245 --> 00:39:25.238
<v Amy Williamson>data because we want to be able
to include in what Epic sees in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8363-2
00:39:25.238 --> 00:39:28.607
<v Amy Williamson>real time mode, which includes
some of those S waves.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8406-0
00:39:30.727 --> 00:39:34.166
<v Amy Williamson>And so this on the right is just
kind of showing basically the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8406-1
00:39:34.166 --> 00:39:37.441
<v Amy Williamson>the cropping down of data that
we did to remove things that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8406-2
00:39:37.441 --> 00:39:40.335
<v Amy Williamson>were not necessarily always
earthquake triggers that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8406-3
00:39:40.335 --> 00:39:42.027
<v Amy Williamson>sometimes get pulled into epic.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8434-0
00:39:42.737 --> 00:39:46.142
<v Amy Williamson>So we were using a much more
refined smaller data set for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8434-1
00:39:46.142 --> 00:39:49.723
<v Amy Williamson>scaling and then we go apply it
back out to all of our noisy</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8434-2
00:39:49.723 --> 00:39:50.017
<v Amy Williamson>data.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8501-0
00:39:52.027 --> 00:39:55.475
<v Amy Williamson>I'm in, so by doing a lot of
different tests here, what we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8501-1
00:39:55.475 --> 00:39:59.040
<v Amy Williamson>ended up deciding on is that the
easiest way to get the best</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8501-2
00:39:59.040 --> 00:40:02.254
<v Amy Williamson>results to limit our maximum
magnitude was to actually</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8501-3
00:40:02.254 --> 00:40:05.527
<v Amy Williamson>partition or scaling into two
different sets of scaling</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8501-4
00:40:05.527 --> 00:40:09.209
<v Amy Williamson>relations depending on if that
station is in the near field or</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8501-5
00:40:09.209 --> 00:40:10.027
<v Amy Williamson>the far field.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8552-0
00:40:10.757 --> 00:40:14.127
<v Amy Williamson>So we divided this basically at
50 kilometers at which gave us</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8552-1
00:40:14.127 --> 00:40:17.069
<v Amy Williamson>the best results to say that if
a station is within 50</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8552-2
00:40:17.069 --> 00:40:20.439
<v Amy Williamson>kilometers, it has one set of
scaling and if it's further away</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8552-3
00:40:20.439 --> 00:40:21.937
<v Amy Williamson>then it has a different set.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8592-0
00:40:22.847 --> 00:40:26.403
<v Amy Williamson>And So what this really does is
it reduces that overestimate</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8592-1
00:40:26.403 --> 00:40:29.725
<v Amy Williamson>eskimos's early stations without
imposing basically that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8592-2
00:40:29.725 --> 00:40:32.407
<v Amy Williamson>reduction with our stations in
the far field.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8652-0
00:40:32.417 --> 00:40:36.942
<v Amy Williamson>They're already doing a fairly
good job with magnitude, and So</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8652-1
00:40:36.942 --> 00:40:41.394
<v Amy Williamson>what this does is if I compare
our current scaling, which has</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8652-2
00:40:41.394 --> 00:40:44.986
<v Amy Williamson>that sort of initial
overestimate with time, that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8652-3
00:40:44.986 --> 00:40:49.726
<v Amy Williamson>kind of settles in with this new
scaling that we're proposing, we</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8652-4
00:40:49.726 --> 00:40:53.317
<v Amy Williamson>really reduce a lot of that
initial overestimate.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8695-0
00:40:53.527 --> 00:40:57.358
<v Amy Williamson>So we can see that both in the
time series and then we can see</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8695-1
00:40:57.358 --> 00:41:00.825
<v Amy Williamson>it in just the individual
station view that we no longer</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8695-2
00:41:00.825 --> 00:41:04.534
<v Amy Williamson>have this large uptick within
the 1st about 30 kilometers or</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8695-3
00:41:04.534 --> 00:41:04.717
<v Amy Williamson>so.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8732-0
00:41:05.157 --> 00:41:09.151
<v Amy Williamson>And we also then kind of fix a
little bit of a really far field</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8732-1
00:41:09.151 --> 00:41:12.709
<v Amy Williamson>under underestimate where our
data was kind of tilting a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8732-2
00:41:12.709 --> 00:41:16.017
<v Amy Williamson>little bit underestimate we kind
of fixed that also.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8740-0
00:41:19.177 --> 00:41:21.317
<v Amy Williamson>So there's other pieces though,
besides just.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8814-0
00:41:23.997 --> 00:41:28.465
<v Amy Williamson>Trying to fix this really near
field data in her magnitude and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8814-1
00:41:28.465 --> 00:41:32.862
<v Amy Williamson>so one that we're starting to
slowly dabble in but need to to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8814-2
00:41:32.862 --> 00:41:37.330
<v Amy Williamson>do a lot of thinking about is
how do we handle stations within</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8814-3
00:41:37.330 --> 00:41:40.947
<v Amy Williamson>the network that are
consistently always providing</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8814-4
00:41:40.947 --> 00:41:45.132
<v Amy Williamson>over or underestimates of or
magnitude and possibly due to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8814-5
00:41:45.132 --> 00:41:47.827
<v Amy Williamson>local factors or geology in the
area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8856-0
00:41:48.337 --> 00:41:54.527
<v Amy Williamson>And so if I if I take all of our
stations over all of our events</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8856-1
00:41:54.527 --> 00:42:00.337
<v Amy Williamson>and look at the residuals on
that station magnitude over the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8856-2
00:42:00.337 --> 00:42:06.147
<v Amy Williamson>very large average, they all
have a pretty low overestimate.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8933-0
00:42:06.157 --> 00:42:10.095
<v Amy Williamson>They're pretty close to 0, but
individual stations can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8933-1
00:42:10.095 --> 00:42:14.464
<v Amy Williamson>sometimes always perform bit
over our estimate or under, and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8933-2
00:42:14.464 --> 00:42:18.832
<v Amy Williamson>so the issue there is how do we
handle these sort of case by</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8933-3
00:42:18.832 --> 00:42:23.128
<v Amy Williamson>case stations where some of
these stations, particularly if</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8933-4
00:42:23.128 --> 00:42:27.568
<v Amy Williamson>they are close to a source or
provide a lot of data, can sort</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8933-5
00:42:27.568 --> 00:42:31.507
<v Amy Williamson>of single handedly increase or
decrease or magnitudes?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8938-0
00:42:31.877 --> 00:42:34.137
<v Amy Williamson>Umm, so how do we what?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8997-0
00:42:34.237 --> 00:42:37.241
<v Amy Williamson>Something that we're kind of
starting to look at is whether</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8997-1
00:42:37.241 --> 00:42:40.345
<v Amy Williamson>or not it would be appropriate
to include it in some of these</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8997-2
00:42:40.345 --> 00:42:43.500
<v Amy Williamson>corrections into our individual
magnitudes, and how that would</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8997-3
00:42:43.500 --> 00:42:46.604
<v Amy Williamson>affect our event magnitudes and
what sort of the best ways to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/8997-4
00:42:46.604 --> 00:42:48.607
<v Amy Williamson>include this this data set in
would be.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9012-0
00:42:49.167 --> 00:42:53.083
<v Amy Williamson>That was kind of where some of
our future directions with that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9012-1
00:42:53.083 --> 00:42:54.327
<v Amy Williamson>magnitude piece are.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9017-0
00:42:56.257 --> 00:42:56.587
<v Amy Williamson>Alright.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9044-0
00:42:56.597 --> 00:43:00.018
<v Amy Williamson>But so from there we kind of
talked a lot about how we want</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9044-1
00:43:00.018 --> 00:43:03.383
<v Amy Williamson>to improve our magnitudes,
improve a lot of those offshore</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9044-2
00:43:03.383 --> 00:43:04.067
<v Amy Williamson>earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9084-0
00:43:04.077 --> 00:43:07.443
<v Amy Williamson>And this is all really been
sitting in that sort of smaller</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9084-1
00:43:07.443 --> 00:43:10.978
<v Amy Williamson>to moderate earthquake, early
warning world and that's because</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9084-2
00:43:10.978 --> 00:43:14.401
<v Amy Williamson>that's what a lot of the events
that we've seen come through</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9084-3
00:43:14.401 --> 00:43:15.467
<v Amy Williamson>Sheckler have been.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9096-0
00:43:16.357 --> 00:43:19.484
<v Amy Williamson>But that's not necessarily what
all feature earthquakes will</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9096-1
00:43:19.484 --> 00:43:19.997
<v Amy Williamson>look like.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9129-0
00:43:21.527 --> 00:43:25.193
<v Amy Williamson>And so we do have what kind of
within our alerting area the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9129-1
00:43:25.193 --> 00:43:29.165
<v Amy Williamson>potential for larger earthquakes
both within California but also</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9129-2
00:43:29.165 --> 00:43:30.937
<v Amy Williamson>within the Pacific Northwest.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9177-0
00:43:31.147 --> 00:43:35.375
<v Amy Williamson>And this is where data sets like
what is available from high rate</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9177-1
00:43:35.375 --> 00:43:39.475
<v Amy Williamson>GPS can help us with and so GPS
data can help us to resolve the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9177-2
00:43:39.475 --> 00:43:43.511
<v Amy Williamson>magnitudes of larger earthquakes
by being able to use stations</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9177-3
00:43:43.511 --> 00:43:45.817
<v Amy Williamson>that are sort of in the near
field.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9221-0
00:43:45.987 --> 00:43:49.851
<v Amy Williamson>So without any sort of
saturation effect, and then from</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9221-1
00:43:49.851 --> 00:43:53.922
<v Amy Williamson>that if we have an event that
has a much larger magnitude,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9221-2
00:43:53.922 --> 00:43:57.717
<v Amy Williamson>particularly if it's along the
coastline or within the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9221-3
00:43:57.717 --> 00:44:01.167
<v Amy Williamson>subduction zone, there's also
additional hazards.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9247-0
00:44:01.257 --> 00:44:06.491
<v Amy Williamson>One of those being being Dynamis
and so this is something that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9247-1
00:44:06.491 --> 00:44:11.477
<v Amy Williamson>I've been really interested in
and it is for early warning.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9287-0
00:44:11.487 --> 00:44:15.610
<v Amy Williamson>It's sort of kind of you have to
reframe a little bit what we're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9287-1
00:44:15.610 --> 00:44:19.480
<v Amy Williamson>working on here because the
tsunami piece kind of effects of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9287-2
00:44:19.480 --> 00:44:23.096
<v Amy Williamson>much larger voter group than
what the initial earthquake</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9287-3
00:44:23.096 --> 00:44:23.857
<v Amy Williamson>necessarily.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9299-0
00:44:25.387 --> 00:44:27.017
<v Amy Williamson>Would need a warning for and.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9317-0
00:44:27.027 --> 00:44:30.015
<v Amy Williamson>So here I'm just showing like a
schematic of foreign event</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9317-1
00:44:30.015 --> 00:44:31.737
<v Amy Williamson>that's rupturing off of
Cascadia.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9357-0
00:44:32.387 --> 00:44:35.609
<v Amy Williamson>You have tsunami that would
require a warning that can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9357-1
00:44:35.609 --> 00:44:38.773
<v Amy Williamson>impact the near field along
Oregon, Washington within</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9357-2
00:44:38.773 --> 00:44:42.113
<v Amy Williamson>Minutes, 10s of minutes,
depending on where that rupture</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9357-3
00:44:42.113 --> 00:44:44.457
<v Amy Williamson>is occurring along the
subduction zone.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9370-0
00:44:44.967 --> 00:44:47.699
<v Amy Williamson>But then you also have
communities all along the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9370-1
00:44:47.699 --> 00:44:48.257
<v Amy Williamson>coastline.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9420-0
00:44:48.267 --> 00:44:52.247
<v Amy Williamson>Well into California that will
see you sanami arrival times</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9420-1
00:44:52.247 --> 00:44:56.427
<v Amy Williamson>within the half hour to two hour
time frame that also need umm</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9420-2
00:44:56.427 --> 00:45:00.540
<v Amy Williamson>what also want a warning for
that, but they won't necessarily</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9420-3
00:45:00.540 --> 00:45:03.127
<v Amy Williamson>be feeling the effects the
earthquake.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9466-0
00:45:03.307 --> 00:45:06.394
<v Amy Williamson>And so we have sort of these
different types of hazard</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9466-1
00:45:06.394 --> 00:45:09.930
<v Amy Williamson>footprints kind of extended from
that seismic source, umm, and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9466-2
00:45:09.930 --> 00:45:13.353
<v Amy Williamson>whether or not we can use some
of that initial data from the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9466-3
00:45:13.353 --> 00:45:15.767
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake to help us with those
warnings.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9503-0
00:45:16.747 --> 00:45:20.368
<v Amy Williamson>I mean, so do you also wanna
note that we do have a current</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9503-1
00:45:20.368 --> 00:45:24.231
<v Amy Williamson>tsunami warning system that for
an event like this will provide</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9503-2
00:45:24.231 --> 00:45:25.197
<v Amy Williamson>cenami warnings.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9518-0
00:45:31.847 --> 00:45:32.107
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>It's.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9575-0
00:45:32.167 --> 00:45:35.807
<v Amy Williamson>Your sensors, but the downside
of this is that those pressure</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9575-1
00:45:35.807 --> 00:45:39.506
<v Amy Williamson>sensors, by being offshore and
sort of away from being damaged</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9575-2
00:45:39.506 --> 00:45:43.088
<v Amy Williamson>by the tsunami itself, can take
a lot of time for you to get</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9575-3
00:45:43.088 --> 00:45:45.437
<v Amy Williamson>enough data at to to provide a
warning.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9605-0
00:45:45.687 --> 00:45:49.326
<v Amy Williamson>And so this means that our
window for warning in near field</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9605-1
00:45:49.326 --> 00:45:52.722
<v Amy Williamson>as well as kind of midfield
within California is can be</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9605-2
00:45:52.722 --> 00:45:54.117
<v Amy Williamson>potentially very short.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9668-0
00:45:54.667 --> 00:45:57.967
<v Amy Williamson>So if we can be able to use and
leverage some of our early</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9668-1
00:45:57.967 --> 00:46:01.323
<v Amy Williamson>warning data that we'll have
available within the first few</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9668-2
00:46:01.323 --> 00:46:04.734
<v Amy Williamson>minutes to kind of improve on
that, tell me warning, how can</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9668-3
00:46:04.734 --> 00:46:08.090
<v Amy Williamson>we do that and what sort of
advantage would that provide as</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9668-4
00:46:08.090 --> 00:46:10.887
<v Amy Williamson>kind of an add on to our current
warning systems?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9671-0
00:46:12.837 --> 00:46:13.027
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9692-0
00:46:13.037 --> 00:46:17.915
<v Amy Williamson>And so to look at this, this is
some work that I I did at the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9692-1
00:46:17.915 --> 00:46:19.567
<v Amy Williamson>University of Oregon.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9723-0
00:46:19.577 --> 00:46:23.992
<v Amy Williamson>And what we ended up doing was
taking the Gefest early warning</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9723-1
00:46:23.992 --> 00:46:28.547
<v Amy Williamson>code so the PGD magnitude piece
is currently within shake alert.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9740-0
00:46:28.557 --> 00:46:32.701
<v Amy Williamson>But there are other components
that you can basically develop</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9740-1
00:46:32.701 --> 00:46:34.707
<v Amy Williamson>real time finite fault models.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9767-0
00:46:34.807 --> 00:46:38.057
<v Amy Williamson>And so the question we wanted to
to ask was how well do those</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9767-1
00:46:38.057 --> 00:46:41.151
<v Amy Williamson>finite fault models available
within the first few minutes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9767-2
00:46:41.151 --> 00:46:42.147
<v Amy Williamson>handle the tsunami?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9786-0
00:46:42.977 --> 00:46:47.387
<v Amy Williamson>So we generated a really large
source of synthetic uh Cascadia</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9786-1
00:46:47.387 --> 00:46:48.647
<v Amy Williamson>style earthquakes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9831-0
00:46:49.457 --> 00:46:53.065
<v Amy Williamson>The then modeled the expected
PGD at coastal GNSS stations,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9831-1
00:46:53.065 --> 00:46:56.734
<v Amy Williamson>and then we ran sort of a course
or inverse problem, saying,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9831-2
00:46:56.734 --> 00:47:00.583
<v Amy Williamson>alright, how well does that PDD
at those stations then recreate</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9831-3
00:47:00.583 --> 00:47:02.027
<v Amy Williamson>that finite fault model?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9907-0
00:47:02.717 --> 00:47:06.250
<v Amy Williamson>And then along the same time, we
run a high resolution sanomi</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9907-1
00:47:06.250 --> 00:47:09.727
<v Amy Williamson>model for our kind of synthetic
known and then we rerun that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9907-2
00:47:09.727 --> 00:47:13.318
<v Amy Williamson>tsunami model with our courser
finite fault and we compare the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9907-3
00:47:13.318 --> 00:47:16.737
<v Amy Williamson>two and say, alright, how well
does that horse dynami model</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9907-4
00:47:16.737 --> 00:47:20.271
<v Amy Williamson>that we have available within
the first three to five minutes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9907-5
00:47:20.271 --> 00:47:20.727
<v Amy Williamson>compare.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9923-0
00:47:20.737 --> 00:47:24.300
<v Amy Williamson>And this is something that is
good enough to provide</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9923-1
00:47:24.300 --> 00:47:27.997
<v Amy Williamson>actionable information within
those first few minutes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9951-0
00:47:28.647 --> 00:47:34.129
<v Amy Williamson>And so this was one example here
that is using sort of somewhat</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/9951-1
00:47:34.129 --> 00:47:38.327
<v Amy Williamson>simplified 8.3 earthquake and
are finally fault.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-0
00:47:38.337 --> 00:47:42.265
<v Amy Williamson>Model does a fairly good job at
generally recreating both the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-1
00:47:42.265 --> 00:47:46.320
<v Amy Williamson>fault plane and the overall slip
structure, and then if we look</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-2
00:47:46.320 --> 00:47:50.184
<v Amy Williamson>at our sort of observed versus
synthetic phenomena along the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-3
00:47:50.184 --> 00:47:54.239
<v Amy Williamson>coastline, we actually do, you
know, while we're not perfect in</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-4
00:47:54.239 --> 00:47:58.357
<v Amy Williamson>every spot, we do a really good
job of recreating basically what</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-5
00:47:58.357 --> 00:48:02.222
<v Amy Williamson>areas do you have sort of the
more extreme amplitudes on the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-6
00:48:02.222 --> 00:48:05.897
<v Amy Williamson>coastline and which areas are
really outside of that main</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10033-7
00:48:05.897 --> 00:48:06.657
<v Amy Williamson>hazard zone.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10102-0
00:48:07.387 --> 00:48:11.190
<v Amy Williamson>We did a lot of tests with this,
so we did this with more complex</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10102-1
00:48:11.190 --> 00:48:14.704
<v Amy Williamson>sources where you know within
the first few minutes we don't</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10102-2
00:48:14.704 --> 00:48:17.816
<v Amy Williamson>always perfectly recreate
everything and so this is a</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10102-3
00:48:17.816 --> 00:48:21.445
<v Amy Williamson>little bit more of a test of,
you know, ways to fine tune some</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10102-4
00:48:21.445 --> 00:48:25.018
<v Amy Williamson>of the the finite faults and
what we are interested in on the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10102-5
00:48:25.018 --> 00:48:25.767
<v Amy Williamson>tsunami side.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10139-0
00:48:25.917 --> 00:48:30.689
<v Amy Williamson>However, it does provide a lot
of actionable information that I</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10139-1
00:48:30.689 --> 00:48:34.790
<v Amy Williamson>think that we could could
leverage and warnings and so</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10139-2
00:48:34.790 --> 00:48:39.637
<v Amy Williamson>kind of the the piece to pull it
all together is then then what?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10147-0
00:48:40.607 --> 00:48:42.697
<v Amy Williamson>So what is really the?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10201-0
00:48:42.767 --> 00:48:46.065
<v Amy Williamson>Is there a way that we can
provide both the earthquake</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10201-1
00:48:46.065 --> 00:48:49.843
<v Amy Williamson>piece and all the sanami pieces
sort of in one data stream for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10201-2
00:48:49.843 --> 00:48:53.560
<v Amy Williamson>people when we're experiencing a
large earthquake on the West</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10201-3
00:48:53.560 --> 00:48:57.038
<v Amy Williamson>Coast so you know this is
thinking about how these alerts</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10201-4
00:48:57.038 --> 00:48:59.557
<v Amy Williamson>might be happening on similar
timescales?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10215-0
00:48:59.567 --> 00:49:02.367
<v Amy Williamson>Of course, the early warning
alerts happening within seconds.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10229-0
00:49:02.807 --> 00:49:05.999
<v Amy Williamson>The cenami P is happening within
the Minutes as kind of a follow</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10229-1
00:49:05.999 --> 00:49:06.147
<v Amy Williamson>up.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-0
00:49:07.157 --> 00:49:09.990
<v Amy Williamson>These are occurring over
sometimes very similar</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-1
00:49:09.990 --> 00:49:13.531
<v Amy Williamson>footprints, especially in the
near field, and those are the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-2
00:49:13.531 --> 00:49:17.190
<v Amy Williamson>people that have the most need
to react to the earthquake and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-3
00:49:17.190 --> 00:49:20.672
<v Amy Williamson>the most need to react to
potential tsunami evacuations to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-4
00:49:20.672 --> 00:49:24.450
<v Amy Williamson>how do we get all of this data
to them both without in poor pun</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-5
00:49:24.450 --> 00:49:28.109
<v Amy Williamson>intended, inundating them with
too much data at once and also</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-6
00:49:28.109 --> 00:49:31.414
<v Amy Williamson>making sure that it's in an
accessible format that they</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-7
00:49:31.414 --> 00:49:34.719
<v Amy Williamson>don't have to go through
multiple different agencies to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10334-8
00:49:34.719 --> 00:49:37.257
<v Amy Williamson>kind of search for exactly what
they need.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10387-0
00:49:37.987 --> 00:49:41.467
<v Amy Williamson>So this is kind of my ultimate
where I want things to go is to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10387-1
00:49:41.467 --> 00:49:45.002
<v Amy Williamson>be able to find a more refined
system to be able to combine all</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10387-2
00:49:45.002 --> 00:49:48.372
<v Amy Williamson>of this information and to be
able to do it within the first</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10387-3
00:49:48.372 --> 00:49:50.747
<v Amy Williamson>couple minutes for like the
Cascadia area.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10407-0
00:49:53.127 --> 00:49:56.177
<v Amy Williamson>Alright, so to kind of summarize
everything that's in here.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10478-0
00:49:56.187 --> 00:49:59.763
<v Amy Williamson>So if we're on the smaller side
of earthquakes but are still</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10478-1
00:49:59.763 --> 00:50:03.340
<v Amy Williamson>actionable for early warning, so
it's moderate sized events,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10478-2
00:50:03.340 --> 00:50:07.092
<v Amy Williamson>we've been doing a lot of work
to try to improve a lot of those</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10478-3
00:50:07.092 --> 00:50:10.375
<v Amy Williamson>locations and magnitude
estimates on this is really has</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10478-4
00:50:10.375 --> 00:50:13.893
<v Amy Williamson>a large impact on some of our
close by offshore earthquakes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10478-5
00:50:13.893 --> 00:50:15.887
<v Amy Williamson>which are on our edge of
network.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10512-0
00:50:16.167 --> 00:50:19.089
<v Amy Williamson>And the way that we do this is
by trying to use some</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10512-1
00:50:19.089 --> 00:50:22.618
<v Amy Williamson>prioritized mycity as weights to
really rain in some of our the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10512-2
00:50:22.618 --> 00:50:24.107
<v Amy Williamson>worst performing locations.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10568-0
00:50:24.877 --> 00:50:28.442
<v Amy Williamson>However, you know, if we were
able to have, you know, more</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10568-1
00:50:28.442 --> 00:50:31.826
<v Amy Williamson>data available, particularly
offshore, those could also</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10568-2
00:50:31.826 --> 00:50:35.754
<v Amy Williamson>probably help us a lot with some
of our earthquake early warning</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10568-3
00:50:35.754 --> 00:50:39.199
<v Amy Williamson>efforts and then having those
better locations also then</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10568-4
00:50:39.199 --> 00:50:43.127
<v Amy Williamson>directly impacts and is able to
improve our magnitude estimates.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10591-0
00:50:43.137 --> 00:50:46.479
<v Amy Williamson>And so having both a good
location and magnitude that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10591-1
00:50:46.479 --> 00:50:50.007
<v Amy Williamson>helps us with having an accurate
initial alert location.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10628-0
00:50:50.957 --> 00:50:54.189
<v Amy Williamson>And then as those earthquakes
get larger and we move more into</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10628-1
00:50:54.189 --> 00:50:57.524
<v Amy Williamson>the Cinnami early warning world,
how can we leverage some of the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10628-2
00:50:57.524 --> 00:51:00.398
<v Amy Williamson>high rate GPS data that's now
kind of folded into shake</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10628-3
00:51:00.398 --> 00:51:00.757
<v Amy Williamson>alerts?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-0
00:51:01.117 --> 00:51:04.243
<v Amy Williamson>How can we use that to provide
more actionable information for</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-1
00:51:04.243 --> 00:51:07.319
<v Amy Williamson>tsunami hazards within those
first few minutes before data is</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-2
00:51:07.319 --> 00:51:10.048
<v Amy Williamson>available from some of those
offshore sensors that are</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-3
00:51:10.048 --> 00:51:13.075
<v Amy Williamson>currently traditionally used,
and then once we have all this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-4
00:51:13.075 --> 00:51:16.300
<v Amy Williamson>data together, how do we combine
these alerting systems in a way</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-5
00:51:16.300 --> 00:51:19.178
<v Amy Williamson>that would actually increase
action when both hazards are</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-6
00:51:19.178 --> 00:51:22.403
<v Amy Williamson>present, particularly when they
are affecting the same community</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-7
00:51:22.403 --> 00:51:25.381
<v Amy Williamson>that is seeing all of these
things happening kind of at the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10727-8
00:51:25.381 --> 00:51:25.877
<v Amy Williamson>same time?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10748-0
00:51:27.167 --> 00:51:30.182
<v Amy Williamson>So trying to trying to merge
merge 2 kind of ends of the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10748-1
00:51:30.182 --> 00:51:31.717
<v Amy Williamson>earthquake spectrum together.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10759-0
00:51:32.687 --> 00:51:35.347
<v Amy Williamson>So a lot of work ahead, but
something I'm pretty excited</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10759-1
00:51:35.347 --> 00:51:35.627
<v Amy Williamson>about.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10774-0
00:51:36.577 --> 00:51:40.745
<v Amy Williamson>Ohh, so that that's gonna say
thank you and if anybody has any</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10774-1
00:51:40.745 --> 00:51:41.407
<v Amy Williamson>questions.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10777-0
00:51:49.727 --> 00:51:50.037
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Awesome.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10779-0
00:51:50.047 --> 00:51:50.217
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10805-0
00:51:50.227 --> 00:51:53.089
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So why don't we start with
questions in the room and then</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10805-1
00:51:53.089 --> 00:51:55.507
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>we'll turn to questions into
chat and online so.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10810-0
00:51:57.777 --> 00:51:58.277
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>That's it.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10821-0
00:51:58.347 --> 00:52:02.307
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yes, and really interesting and
clear talk.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10827-0
00:52:02.757 --> 00:52:06.037
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>I had questions about the
magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10872-0
00:52:07.557 --> 00:52:11.450
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So you in in the magnitude
distance relationship you're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10872-1
00:52:11.450 --> 00:52:15.135
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>you're using an epicentral
distance and I was really</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10872-2
00:52:15.135 --> 00:52:19.098
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>surprised to see Japanese data
integrated into that just</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10872-3
00:52:19.098 --> 00:52:23.687
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>because you're gonna be having a
lot of deeper earthquakes there.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10907-0
00:52:23.697 --> 00:52:28.318
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Is that does that play and and
sort of related to that, could</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10907-1
00:52:28.318 --> 00:52:32.641
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>you have sort of regional
magnitude corrections where you</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10907-2
00:52:32.641 --> 00:52:34.877
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>would have deeper earthquakes?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10921-0
00:52:34.887 --> 00:52:36.667
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And I'm sure you've probably
already thought of.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10918-0
00:52:37.607 --> 00:52:38.327
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10951-0
00:52:38.337 --> 00:52:43.253
<v Amy Williamson>So the the original scaling has
larger magnitude data from</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10951-1
00:52:43.253 --> 00:52:48.337
<v Amy Williamson>Japan, which, yeah, that then
has different depths than what</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/10951-2
00:52:48.337 --> 00:52:50.337
<v Amy Williamson>we currently are seeing.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11006-0
00:52:50.567 --> 00:52:54.769
<v Amy Williamson>And So what Epic does is Epic
assumes an 8 kilometer depth are</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11006-1
00:52:54.769 --> 00:52:57.972
<v Amy Williamson>all earthquakes, which
especially early on when</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11006-2
00:52:57.972 --> 00:53:01.641
<v Amy Williamson>Sheckler was limited to
California, worked really well</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11006-3
00:53:01.641 --> 00:53:05.843
<v Amy Williamson>and it still for all the events
we see having that depth works</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11006-4
00:53:05.843 --> 00:53:06.177
<v Amy Williamson>well.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11057-0
00:53:06.527 --> 00:53:10.043
<v Amy Williamson>But that doesn't quite play in
with some of the original</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11057-1
00:53:10.043 --> 00:53:13.867
<v Amy Williamson>scaling data that might be have
a greater depth range, and so</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11057-2
00:53:13.867 --> 00:53:17.568
<v Amy Williamson>when we have been working on
this new scaling, we have this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11057-3
00:53:17.568 --> 00:53:21.083
<v Amy Williamson>want to include ends with a
larger magnitude ranges from</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11057-4
00:53:21.083 --> 00:53:21.947
<v Amy Williamson>that data set.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11069-0
00:53:21.957 --> 00:53:24.107
<v Amy Williamson>But what we've done instead is
really limited to just.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11128-0
00:53:26.227 --> 00:53:30.376
<v Amy Williamson>Events within the Sheckler
reporting zone, so most of our</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11128-1
00:53:30.376 --> 00:53:35.027
<v Amy Williamson>depths are much closer to the 8
kilometer range, but a follow up</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11128-2
00:53:35.027 --> 00:53:39.677
<v Amy Williamson>question that we've or a follow
up project that we wanna look at</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11128-3
00:53:39.677 --> 00:53:43.970
<v Amy Williamson>is that sometimes we do see
magnitudes that are really poor</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11128-4
00:53:43.970 --> 00:53:44.757
<v Amy Williamson>performing.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11191-0
00:53:44.807 --> 00:53:48.551
<v Amy Williamson>And the reason is because we
make assumptions about depth and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11191-1
00:53:48.551 --> 00:53:52.476
<v Amy Williamson>it's actually kind of on the the
shallower side that we see some</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11191-2
00:53:52.476 --> 00:53:56.039
<v Amy Williamson>problems and so there are some
events that if the depth is</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11191-3
00:53:56.039 --> 00:53:59.602
<v Amy Williamson>closer to 1 to 2 kilometers,
we've been having some really</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11191-4
00:53:59.602 --> 00:54:03.467
<v Amy Williamson>large difficulty with having a
good magnitude for those events.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11223-0
00:54:03.477 --> 00:54:07.750
<v Amy Williamson>And so as a follow up is to see
whether or not we want to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11223-1
00:54:07.750 --> 00:54:12.317
<v Amy Williamson>include depth in our location
algorithm and then by extension</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11223-2
00:54:12.317 --> 00:54:13.717
<v Amy Williamson>into our magnitude.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11236-0
00:54:14.767 --> 00:54:17.924
<v Amy Williamson>The bigger question there is how
well can we resolve those with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11236-1
00:54:17.924 --> 00:54:18.417
<v Amy Williamson>this data.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11281-0
00:54:18.427 --> 00:54:22.316
<v Amy Williamson>So yeah, it's it's in the
pipeline of things that we wanna</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11281-1
00:54:22.316 --> 00:54:26.470
<v Amy Williamson>look at, it would maybe help us
then to be able to use in some</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11281-2
00:54:26.470 --> 00:54:29.107
<v Amy Williamson>of those larger magnitude
scaling data.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11288-0
00:54:34.937 --> 00:54:35.777
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yeah, I think so much, Jimmy.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11304-0
00:54:35.787 --> 00:54:38.280
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>It was really very clear and it
was really nice to see all this</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11304-1
00:54:38.280 --> 00:54:38.787
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>put together.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11314-0
00:54:39.187 --> 00:54:41.067
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>I'll kind of follow on. Justin.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11327-0
00:54:41.077 --> 00:54:43.468
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Special I'm I'm also really
curious about magnitudes as you</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11327-1
00:54:43.468 --> 00:54:43.667
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>know.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11373-0
00:54:44.197 --> 00:54:47.601
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So first, like maybe a quick
question and I think we've</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11373-1
00:54:47.601 --> 00:54:51.491
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>talked about this, but for those
catalog magnitudes that you're</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11373-2
00:54:51.491 --> 00:54:55.139
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>comparing Epic against, are
those no it magnitudes or local</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11373-3
00:54:55.139 --> 00:54:56.537
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>magnitudes or mixtures?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11383-0
00:54:57.477 --> 00:54:59.427
<v Amy Williamson>It is, so it's usually a
mixture.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11417-0
00:54:59.437 --> 00:55:03.760
<v Amy Williamson>If it's the smaller magnitudes,
then it airs towards a local and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11417-1
00:55:03.760 --> 00:55:07.817
<v Amy Williamson>then if it's in the larger end,
then it goes towards moment.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11407-0
00:55:03.787 --> 00:55:04.097
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>The.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11458-0
00:55:07.867 --> 00:55:12.531
<v Amy Williamson>And so yeah, this is something
that we've been struggling with</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11458-1
00:55:12.531 --> 00:55:16.900
<v Amy Williamson>how we want to handle, umm,
converting everything to local</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11458-2
00:55:16.900 --> 00:55:21.490
<v Amy Williamson>or keeping it as whatever the
preferred magnitude is for each</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11458-3
00:55:21.490 --> 00:55:22.527
<v Amy Williamson>of the events.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11494-0
00:55:22.537 --> 00:55:26.534
<v Amy Williamson>And yeah, that gets a little bit
tricky because sometimes the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11494-1
00:55:26.534 --> 00:55:30.338
<v Amy Williamson>events get finally kind of
graded on what is the preferred</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11494-2
00:55:30.338 --> 00:55:34.077
<v Amy Williamson>magnitude, even if they might
fit better with with local.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11522-0
00:55:34.147 --> 00:55:38.984
<v Amy Williamson>And so yeah, it's right now it's
it's whatever the preferred one</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11515-0
00:55:36.617 --> 00:55:36.797
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11522-1
00:55:38.984 --> 00:55:39.207
<v Amy Williamson>is.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11520-0
00:55:39.667 --> 00:55:40.067
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Right.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11524-0
00:55:40.137 --> 00:55:40.487
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>OK.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11527-0
00:55:40.497 --> 00:55:40.927
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Great.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11578-0
00:55:41.517 --> 00:55:44.216
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Then the second thing is, have
you looked at a regional</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11578-1
00:55:44.216 --> 00:55:47.302
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>difference in these 19 misfits
between Norcal and Socal, and so</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11578-2
00:55:47.302 --> 00:55:50.242
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>particularly I think you were
showing a slide like the three</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11578-3
00:55:50.242 --> 00:55:53.231
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>curves, all of those events were
Northern California, is that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11578-4
00:55:53.231 --> 00:55:53.617
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>correct?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11588-0
00:55:53.627 --> 00:55:54.627
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>They were all in C.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11586-0
00:55:55.067 --> 00:55:56.597
<v Amy Williamson>Yes, they were.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11599-0
00:55:56.607 --> 00:55:58.157
<v Amy Williamson>I haven't might be a good
question.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11625-0
00:55:58.167 --> 00:56:02.035
<v Amy Williamson>I haven't plotted out the
similar events in that in that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11616-0
00:56:00.127 --> 00:56:02.337
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>And you have your. Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11625-1
00:56:02.035 --> 00:56:02.307
<v Amy Williamson>way.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11640-0
00:56:02.347 --> 00:56:05.075
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So you have a mask when you
started talking about magnitudes</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11640-1
00:56:05.075 --> 00:56:07.177
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>that seem to perhaps show
regional difference.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11651-0
00:56:07.267 --> 00:56:08.397
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Be interesting to revisit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11688-0
00:56:09.817 --> 00:56:13.858
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Maybe after your corrections or
I don't know something because I</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11688-1
00:56:13.858 --> 00:56:17.090
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>I think we we I mean the
original PD relations were</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11688-2
00:56:17.090 --> 00:56:19.577
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>different from North Callum and
so Cal.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11684-0
00:56:19.817 --> 00:56:20.207
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11707-0
00:56:20.017 --> 00:56:22.527
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So I think really interesting,
Teresa.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11703-0
00:56:20.257 --> 00:56:21.047
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah, they were at.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11708-0
00:56:21.097 --> 00:56:22.757
<v Amy Williamson>And yeah, that would be.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11738-0
00:56:24.197 --> 00:56:28.382
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah, that would be something I
hadn't thought about looking at,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11738-1
00:56:28.382 --> 00:56:32.309
<v Amy Williamson>but it would be interesting to
see even between northern and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11738-2
00:56:32.309 --> 00:56:33.597
<v Amy Williamson>Southern California.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11803-0
00:56:33.607 --> 00:56:37.763
<v Amy Williamson>And you know, we have a lot less
data, but the Pacific Northwest</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11803-1
00:56:37.763 --> 00:56:41.791
<v Amy Williamson>is kind of what the other kind
of question here is, would that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11763-0
00:56:39.547 --> 00:56:39.937
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>No.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11803-2
00:56:41.791 --> 00:56:45.820
<v Amy Williamson>necessarily behave the same way
and is it necessarily going to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11803-3
00:56:45.820 --> 00:56:49.848
<v Amy Williamson>be reflected in the data when we
have such cause like we could</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11803-4
00:56:49.848 --> 00:56:53.876
<v Amy Williamson>potentially be overpowering a
different system with so much to</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11803-5
00:56:53.876 --> 00:56:55.347
<v Amy Williamson>California earthquakes?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11827-0
00:56:56.557 --> 00:56:59.777
<v Amy Williamson>So yeah, I that's a good
question I would.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11830-0
00:56:56.757 --> 00:57:00.543
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yeah, because that's implicit
relationships is some</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11830-1
00:57:00.543 --> 00:57:01.927
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>attenuation, right?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11849-0
00:57:01.937 --> 00:57:05.030
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>So if the geology or the
structure is different than</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11849-1
00:57:05.030 --> 00:57:06.897
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>these regions, then map that to.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11855-0
00:57:06.967 --> 00:57:07.427
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11863-0
00:57:07.587 --> 00:57:08.007
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Thank you.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11857-0
00:57:08.757 --> 00:57:09.167
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11865-0
00:57:09.217 --> 00:57:11.257
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah, it's a good suggestion.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11879-0
00:57:11.377 --> 00:57:14.767
<v Amy Williamson>I haven't done it, but now I'm
curious, so look at that.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11888-0
00:57:17.987 --> 00:57:18.917
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Your questions in the room.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11891-0
00:57:20.987 --> 00:57:21.787
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Yeah.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11896-0
00:57:22.487 --> 00:57:22.847
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Thank you.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11904-0
00:57:24.667 --> 00:57:26.427
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>My question thank you for this.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11907-0
00:57:26.437 --> 00:57:27.547
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Uh, right.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11916-0
00:57:27.557 --> 00:57:30.327
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Uh, presentation related to the
GNSS.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11955-0
00:57:30.697 --> 00:57:34.625
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>How many sampling rate for the
higher resolution for GPS that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11955-1
00:57:34.625 --> 00:57:38.109
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>you use and then how many
station that you use for the</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/11955-2
00:57:38.109 --> 00:57:41.087
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>three minutes in person finding
for in person?</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12016-0
00:57:42.497 --> 00:57:47.148
<v Amy Williamson>Yeah, so this oops, trying to go
back to these, these were using,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12016-1
00:57:47.148 --> 00:57:51.306
<v Amy Williamson>so this was all I should caveat
with this was modeling and</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12016-2
00:57:51.306 --> 00:57:55.323
<v Amy Williamson>synthetic because we don't have
events here, but we were</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12016-3
00:57:55.323 --> 00:57:59.692
<v Amy Williamson>modeling at 1 Hertz and this was
using stations assuming that</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12016-4
00:57:59.692 --> 00:58:04.343
<v Amy Williamson>they were all available stations
that were all available within 3</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12016-5
00:58:04.343 --> 00:58:04.907
<v Amy Williamson>minutes.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12018-0
00:58:05.997 --> 00:58:06.447
<v Amy Williamson>Umm.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12050-0
00:58:07.487 --> 00:58:11.203
<v Amy Williamson>And so we played around a bit
with creating different finite</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12050-1
00:58:11.203 --> 00:58:14.614
<v Amy Williamson>vaults for basically a 60
seconds, you know, 2 minutes,</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12050-2
00:58:14.614 --> 00:58:17.417
<v Amy Williamson>three minute, 5 minutes, 10
minutes solution.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12071-0
00:58:17.627 --> 00:58:20.657
<v Amy Williamson>And so it's not we didn't really
have a a particular number of</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12071-1
00:58:20.657 --> 00:58:22.437
<v Amy Williamson>stations that we were trying to
hit.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12098-0
00:58:22.447 --> 00:58:25.605
<v Amy Williamson>It was just what would be
available given where the Earth</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12098-1
00:58:25.605 --> 00:58:28.545
<v Amy Williamson>Pixel location is and the
station density in the area</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12098-2
00:58:28.545 --> 00:58:29.907
<v Amy Williamson>within those time frames.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12106-0
00:58:35.527 --> 00:58:36.327
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>That's all the questions.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12113-0
00:58:39.977 --> 00:58:42.827
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>I wish. No sure.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12118-0
00:58:42.917 --> 00:58:43.237
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Alright.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12125-0
00:58:43.247 --> 00:58:45.357
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>Well, that's let's thank Amy one
more time.</v>

6dc286c8-5ca6-4524-96fe-ce0b4e8fa98a/12139-0
00:58:50.537 --> 00:58:52.067
<v GS-CAMFT-Bldg19-YosemiteConfRoom2030>You got some great comments in
the chat.</v>