WEBVTT

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Well, folks, I think we're gonna
get started.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/201-0
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Thank you all for attending the
Earthquake Science Center Weekly

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Seminar Series.

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If you are new, welcome.

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If you would like to be added to
our email distribution group,

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00:00:16.337 --> 00:00:17.190
please send us an email.

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Seminars are recorded and mostly
all talks are posted on the USGS

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/273-1
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Earthquake Science Center web
page. Closed captioning can be

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turned on by clicking on the CC
icon or the ... more tab at the

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top of the page.

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Attendees, please mute your mics
and turn off your cameras until

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00:00:32.726 --> 00:00:35.828
the Q&A session at the end
of the talk, and feel free to

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00:00:35.828 --> 00:00:38.829
submit your questions via the
chat at any time, or wait to

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turn on your camera and ask your
questions during the Q&A

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00:00:41.983 --> 00:00:42.950
session. Next week,

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as far as announcements go for
today. Next week on Tuesday,

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January 30th, that will be the
first day of the 3-day Northern

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California Earthquake Hazards
Workshop.

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Registration is required to
attend.

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Please see the chat to see the
agenda and to register.

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Susan will add that to the chat
in the meeting.

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Please also note that because of
the overlap with the workshop

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next week, there will not be an
ESC seminar.

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We will pick up in February.

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Let's see.

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So the California Community
models for Seismic Hazards

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Workshop will be online from
March 4th to 5th, 2024.

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Community models include
geologic models, seismic

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/485-1
00:01:23.856 --> 00:01:27.355
velocity models, fault models,
stress models, geodetic models,

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thermal models, and rheology
models.

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More details will be coming
soon.

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The USGS Science Lightning Talks
Town Hall will be on Thursday,

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tomorrow, January 25th, from
2:00 to 3:30, and as always, we

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will have our Not Ready for
Prime Time and in-person

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informal meeting where USGS
scientists have a chance to

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discuss new results and or share
new thoughts and ideas.

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Join us Thursday's at 3 o'clock
here in person in the Yosemite

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Room for that.

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Finally, Max and I will be
handing off our seminar

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/596-1
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coordination hosting
responsibilities to Margaret

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Jessica.

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Mary.

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But next week? Not.

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Sorry, not next week in
February, starting the first

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week, so please rest assured,
the seminar will be in great

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00:02:12.291 --> 00:02:13.490
hands starting then.

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With that, I'll hand it over to
Anne Wein, who will introduce

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our speaker today.

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Good morning.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/672-0
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I crossed paths with Emily
Mongold on the topic of sea

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level rise and liquefaction.

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That was our study with Alex
Grant to analyze the

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liquefaction under changing sea
level rise and it was advised by

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Keith Knudsen as well.

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But back to Emily.

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She's a structural engineer, PhD
student at Stanford University.

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Sorry.

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Yes, she is.

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She completed her Bachelors in
engineering at the University of

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Delaware, where she became
involved in natural hazards

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research.

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And I just heard hurricanes in
particular. Working towards a

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multi-hazard framework
considering an array of coastal

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hazards including earthquakes
and modeled anticipated changes

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due to sea level rise.

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So we'll hear about this
relevant work today and also

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congratulate you, Emily, on your
first publication and

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earthquakes sketcher bit forged
ahead on modeling posters.

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Aster recovery, by accounting
for rental and multifamily

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housing.

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So I present Emily, who is
passionate about resilience,

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sustainability, and solutions.

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Awesome.

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Thank you for the introduction
and thank you all for having me

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here today. My name is Emily
Mongold.

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And yeah, I'm a PhD candidate at
Stanford University.  Today,

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I'm gonna be presenting mostly
on this probabilistic regional

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00:03:48.533 --> 00:03:52.761
liquefaction analysis, but to
give a little bit additional

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background.

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There we go.

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Umm.

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So yeah, I have a background in
structural engineering, so when

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I'm looking at natural hazards,
I'm thinking from a risk-based

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perspective, which means I'm
thinking mostly about how

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hazards impact the built
environment.

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I'm also working on having a
focus on human impacts, so like

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Anne mentioned, I did some work
as well with focus on housing

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and recovery of households and
how households can actually

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rebuild and how people are
impacted by the hazards that

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they experience.

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So with the bigger picture, I'm
working to include multiple

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different hazards because people
are impacted by multiple

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hazards.

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Umm.

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And including sea level rise as
a lot of hazards, impacts are

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changing and I'm doing this with
a focus on the impacts to

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communities and working to
calculate actionable outcomes to

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understand how people are
affected and what can be done to

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help that.

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So, when  I think about this in
the framework of liquefaction,

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00:05:14.709 --> 00:05:17.921
the difference between
liquefaction hazard and risk is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1145-2
00:05:17.921 --> 00:05:21.776
that there can be a liquefaction
hazard a lot of places and there

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1145-3
00:05:21.776 --> 00:05:24.580
are different ways that
liquefaction manifests.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1223-0
00:05:24.590 --> 00:05:28.572
Sand boils or uneven settlement
and if this happens in a place

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00:05:28.572 --> 00:05:32.491
where there aren't people or or
in a field somewhere, there's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1223-2
00:05:32.491 --> 00:05:35.777
still liquefaction hazard, but
there's not really a

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00:05:35.777 --> 00:05:39.949
liquefaction risk because people
aren't affected, infrastructure,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1223-4
00:05:39.949 --> 00:05:43.931
isn't affected, whereas, you can
see on the right hand picture

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that when liquefaction happens
in a place like an urban

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00:05:47.471 --> 00:05:48.230
environment.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1263-0
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This is a picture from the 1906
San Francisco earthquake and we

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1263-1
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can see that this has caused
significant damage to a building

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1263-2
00:05:56.999 --> 00:06:01.170
where it's settled backwards and
it's fallen kind of on its

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00:06:01.170 --> 00:06:02.630
neighboring building.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1274-0
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And so this is where there
becomes risk from the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1274-1
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liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1301-0
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Liquefaction can cause damage to
structures that would otherwise

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withstand earthquake shaking.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1318-0
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We can see in this picture that
the building itself is still

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together.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1322-0
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It hasn't collapsed.

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00:06:25.680 --> 00:06:26.300


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It hasn't exhibited any other
damage other than the fact that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1359-1
00:06:31.495 --> 00:06:35.570
it's now settled back and and
fallen on another building.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1384-0
00:06:36.040 --> 00:06:39.613
And in the past, largely because
ground failure is difficult to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1384-1
00:06:39.613 --> 00:06:42.964
predict, but it hasn't been
considered in a typical seismic

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1384-2
00:06:42.964 --> 00:06:44.360
hazard and risk analysis.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1407-0
00:06:46.340 --> 00:06:52.029
And so I've been working to to
combine it in and using some

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1407-1
00:06:52.029 --> 00:06:54.590
empirical fragility curves.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1452-0
00:06:55.640 --> 00:06:58.876
Some researchers at the
University of Washington

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1452-1
00:06:58.876 --> 00:07:02.707
developed these based on
empirical data, and so those are

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1452-2
00:07:02.707 --> 00:07:06.802
useful to now be able to combine
the way that we consider the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1452-3
00:07:06.802 --> 00:07:11.030
hazard with the losses that we
expect and damages to buildings.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1470-0
00:07:14.900 --> 00:07:21.150
So at a phenomenological scale,
liquefaction is really ground

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1507-0
00:07:21.160 --> 00:07:24.941
failure that occurs during
earthquake shaking and it

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1507-1
00:07:24.941 --> 00:07:29.008
requires that the soil be
saturated, sandy and of course

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1507-2
00:07:29.008 --> 00:07:30.650
experience the shaking.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1564-0
00:07:31.600 --> 00:07:36.585
And so at that small scale, the
particles have to be uplifted in

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1564-1
00:07:36.585 --> 00:07:41.110
the poor water pressure, and
that can cause the settlement

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1564-2
00:07:41.110 --> 00:07:45.099
and the flow of the soil during
during the event of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1564-3
00:07:45.099 --> 00:07:49.471
liquefaction. Liquefaction
itself could happen under the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1564-4
00:07:49.471 --> 00:07:54.150
soil and not really have an
impact that we would know about.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1577-0
00:07:54.780 --> 00:07:58.335
So because I'm focused on risk
to to structures and risk to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1577-1
00:07:58.335 --> 00:07:58.750
people.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1590-0
00:08:00.790 --> 00:08:05.460
I'm focused on when liquefaction
has a surface manifestation.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1605-0
00:08:05.670 --> 00:08:08.493
So that's like the sand boils
and the settlement that I

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1605-1
00:08:08.493 --> 00:08:09.350
mentioned before.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1607-0
00:08:10.340 --> 00:08:10.760


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1662-0
00:08:12.940 --> 00:08:17.127
And there are many different
ways that that past researchers

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1662-1
00:08:17.127 --> 00:08:21.452
have considered measuring and
predicting liquefaction, but the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1662-2
00:08:21.452 --> 00:08:25.914
liquefaction potential index or
LPI is the metric that I've been

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1662-3
00:08:25.914 --> 00:08:29.484
using, and this corresponds
typically to either the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1662-4
00:08:29.484 --> 00:08:32.230
likelihood or severity of
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1696-0
00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:36.990
It's been interpreted both ways
by different researchers, so

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1696-1
00:08:36.990 --> 00:08:41.663
typically an LPI above 5 would
be where you might expect to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1696-2
00:08:41.663 --> 00:08:44.000
moderate liquefaction and LPI 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1720-0
00:08:44.010 --> 00:08:48.258
above 15 would be where you
might experience severe

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1720-1
00:08:48.258 --> 00:08:53.404
liquefaction. So, I used those
thresholds to kind of interpret

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1720-2
00:08:53.404 --> 00:08:54.140
the data.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1745-0
00:08:55.020 --> 00:08:59.179
This equation for LPI on the
right hand side, it's calculated

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1745-1
00:08:59.179 --> 00:09:00.790
along the depth of soil.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1815-0
00:09:01.000 --> 00:09:05.858
So going from where there's
groundwater, where the soil is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1815-1
00:09:05.858 --> 00:09:10.716
saturated, down 20 meters to a
depth where you might still

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1815-2
00:09:10.716 --> 00:09:15.738
expect it to impact surface
manifestation, and the factor of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1815-3
00:09:15.738 --> 00:09:20.926
safety of liquefaction in there
is where the information about

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1815-4
00:09:20.926 --> 00:09:26.113
the soil, the ground shaking and
the different soil properties

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1815-5
00:09:26.113 --> 00:09:29.160
are all in that factor of safety
FS.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1827-0
00:09:30.860 --> 00:09:34.080
 LPI has been empirically fit by
a lot of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1833-0
00:09:35.670 --> 00:09:37.300
geo-techs.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1856-0
00:09:37.310 --> 00:09:42.133
based on different soil data,
but I'm using some that uses CPT

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1856-1
00:09:42.133 --> 00:09:44.430
or cone penetration test data.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1892-0
00:09:45.710 --> 00:09:49.826
So there are a lot of different
ways to calculate, but I've been

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1892-1
00:09:49.826 --> 00:09:54.006
using two equations that use CPT
data and that just stands in for

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1892-2
00:09:54.006 --> 00:09:55.970
the the properties of the soil.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1917-0
00:09:59.740 --> 00:10:03.805
My case study is on Alameda, the
island of Alameda, CA, which is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1917-1
00:10:03.805 --> 00:10:06.994
in the San Francisco Bay,
directly across from San

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1917-2
00:10:06.994 --> 00:10:07.620
Francisco.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1920-0
00:10:08.870 --> 00:10:09.460


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1943-0
00:10:09.710 --> 00:10:14.303
And this is actually a map from
the USGS that is based on the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1943-1
00:10:14.303 --> 00:10:16.230
soil deposits in the area.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1986-0
00:10:16.910 --> 00:10:21.329
We know that there's a lot of
artificial fill in the Bay Area,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1986-1
00:10:21.329 --> 00:10:25.468
which is very susceptible to
liquefaction and even the the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1986-2
00:10:25.468 --> 00:10:30.027
natural deposits that were there
are in this medium liquefaction

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/1986-3
00:10:30.027 --> 00:10:31.080
susceptibility.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2000-0
00:10:32.520 --> 00:10:36.250
But this isn't based on the
earthquake events.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2029-0
00:10:36.460 --> 00:10:41.406
This is based solely on these
soil deposit types, but we also

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2029-1
00:10:41.406 --> 00:10:46.193
know that the Bay Area and
Alameda is subject to earthquake

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2029-2
00:10:46.193 --> 00:10:47.390
hazard as well.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2075-0
00:10:47.400 --> 00:10:51.992
Of course, we have the Hayward
fault to the east and the San

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2075-1
00:10:51.992 --> 00:10:56.736
Andreas fault a bit farther away
to the west. On Alameda there

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2075-2
00:10:56.736 --> 00:11:00.727
are over 12,000 residential
buildings, which are the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2075-3
00:11:00.727 --> 00:11:04.040
buildings that I analyze in my
simulations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2114-0
00:11:06.620 --> 00:11:10.480
So the questions that I aimed to
answer with this work is how

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2114-1
00:11:10.480 --> 00:11:14.466
much risk does Alameda face from
liquefaction and how much loss

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2114-2
00:11:14.466 --> 00:11:16.770
might we see in a future
earthquake?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2167-0
00:11:19.240 --> 00:11:23.646
So first I'm going to talk
through the methodology and the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2167-1
00:11:23.646 --> 00:11:28.501
end goal of this methodology is
to get to an expected loss ratio

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2167-2
00:11:28.501 --> 00:11:33.207
or the ratio of the damage to
the total building value for all

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2167-3
00:11:33.207 --> 00:11:36.270
of the residential buildings on
Alameda.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2201-0
00:11:38.910 --> 00:11:44.246
And the first input that I start
with is the ground motions using

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2201-1
00:11:44.246 --> 00:11:49.258
open SSH, a database of known
faults and possible ruptures on

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2201-2
00:11:49.258 --> 00:11:50.310
those faults.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2233-0
00:11:51.030 --> 00:11:54.912
 I produce ground shaking
simulations using multiple

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2233-1
00:11:54.912 --> 00:11:59.233
ground motion models to get
simulated intensity maps where

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2233-2
00:11:59.233 --> 00:12:02.310
we have PGA across the entire
study area.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2263-0
00:12:04.930 --> 00:12:08.278
The second input is the
groundwater level because the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2263-1
00:12:08.278 --> 00:12:11.254
soil has to be saturated in
order for us to see

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2263-2
00:12:11.254 --> 00:12:12.060
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2296-0
00:12:12.450 --> 00:12:16.663
So for this I have measurements
of groundwater depth and I

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2296-1
00:12:16.663 --> 00:12:20.949
interpolate the groundwater
surface from those measurements

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2296-2
00:12:20.949 --> 00:12:24.520
across the island to have a
depth to groundwater.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2311-0
00:12:28.100 --> 00:12:31.210
And then the third input is the
soil properties.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2336-0
00:12:31.260 --> 00:12:36.103
So at those same locations where
there are groundwater

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2336-1
00:12:36.103 --> 00:12:41.474
measurements, those are CPT
boreholes where cone penetration

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2336-2
00:12:41.474 --> 00:12:43.500
test data was obtained.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2369-0
00:12:44.480 --> 00:12:49.781
So those are along the depth of
soil and I perform sequential

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2369-1
00:12:49.781 --> 00:12:54.570
Gaussian simulations to simulate
a 3D set of soil data.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2380-0
00:12:55.580 --> 00:12:59.610
In order to use that across that
same area of the island.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2404-0
00:13:03.120 --> 00:13:08.207
These three inputs are then
combined with that liquefaction

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2404-1
00:13:08.207 --> 00:13:11.430
LPI equation that I mentioned
before.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2432-0
00:13:12.100 --> 00:13:16.326
So the ground shaking, the
ground water, and the soil maps

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2432-1
00:13:16.326 --> 00:13:20.410
each play in to give a map of
the LPI across the island.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2447-0
00:13:22.150 --> 00:13:26.640
And this LPI would be for one
scenario.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2471-0
00:13:26.650 --> 00:13:31.319
So then this is done for
multiple scenarios based on how

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2471-1
00:13:31.319 --> 00:13:35.580
many faults and ruptures there
are in the database.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2529-0
00:13:38.420 --> 00:13:43.138
Then for the risk analysis, I
find the LPI at each building

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2529-1
00:13:43.138 --> 00:13:48.328
location interpolating from from
the total area and utilize those

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2529-2
00:13:48.328 --> 00:13:53.360
damage and loss functions that I
mentioned in order to get loss

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2529-3
00:13:53.360 --> 00:13:58.393
ratio at each building for each
simulation, which gives then an

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2529-4
00:13:58.393 --> 00:14:01.460
expected loss ratio for the
buildings.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2546-0
00:14:05.480 --> 00:14:09.464
So first I'm going to talk about
the results from the hazard part

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2546-1
00:14:09.464 --> 00:14:10.430
of the analysis.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2561-0
00:14:12.760 --> 00:14:17.230
The first is the annual rate of
liquefaction across Alameda.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2588-0
00:14:18.200 --> 00:14:22.063
So this [indiscernible] L-value
is the annual rate and we can

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2588-1
00:14:22.063 --> 00:14:25.740
see that it's higher where the
color is darker on the map.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-0
00:14:26.720 --> 00:14:31.589
This accounts for the rates of
the triggering earthquake events

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-1
00:14:31.589 --> 00:14:35.012
that are used in the
simulations, which is a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-2
00:14:35.012 --> 00:14:39.425
combination of over 2000
probabilistic events and you can

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-3
00:14:39.425 --> 00:14:44.142
see that the darkest areas with
the highest hazard show up on

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-4
00:14:44.142 --> 00:14:48.935
the western side of the island
as well as on that southeastern

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-5
00:14:48.935 --> 00:14:53.880
side, and this aligns very well
with where we expect the highest

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2675-6
00:14:53.880 --> 00:14:57.000
hazard to be from the geologic
deposits.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2691-0
00:14:58.050 --> 00:15:01.884
But this is now taking into
account the groundwater and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2691-1
00:15:01.884 --> 00:15:03.460
ground shaking as well.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2719-0
00:15:03.470 --> 00:15:09.141
So we can see that from a
different data source to think

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2719-1
00:15:09.141 --> 00:15:15.210
about, the soil properties, we
still see a very similar map.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2743-0
00:15:18.850 --> 00:15:23.226
And using this map I've
developed this regional metric

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2743-1
00:15:23.226 --> 00:15:26.410
of regional hazard extent and
severity.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2771-0
00:15:27.720 --> 00:15:32.350
So this is a way to consider the
rate of exceedance of both an

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2771-1
00:15:32.350 --> 00:15:36.540
area of the island and an LPI
threshold that's exceeded.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2821-0
00:15:37.890 --> 00:15:42.221
So for example, if we're
interested in 40% of the area

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2821-1
00:15:42.221 --> 00:15:47.105
exceeding some threshold, we can
look at this 0.4 along the X

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2821-2
00:15:47.105 --> 00:15:52.067
axis, which is the portion of
the land area, and then up the Y

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2821-3
00:15:52.067 --> 00:15:55.060
axis we have the LPI that's
exceeded.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2863-0
00:15:55.240 --> 00:15:59.485
We can look across at an LPI 5,
where we might expect moderate

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2863-1
00:15:59.485 --> 00:16:03.798
and liquefaction or look higher
at an LPI of 15, where we might

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2863-2
00:16:03.798 --> 00:16:07.100
expect severe liquefaction, and
we can see that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2888-0
00:16:09.530 --> 00:16:14.033
Obviously that's getting more
rare to see larger areas and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2888-1
00:16:14.033 --> 00:16:16.170
combinations of larger LPIs.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2916-0
00:16:16.750 --> 00:16:20.163
But we can look at this for
different portions of land area

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2916-1
00:16:20.163 --> 00:16:23.690
that we might be interested in
and see the the annual rate of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2916-2
00:16:23.690 --> 00:16:24.430
those events.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2982-0
00:16:27.040 --> 00:16:32.236
We can also see from this where
either the extent or severity

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2982-1
00:16:32.236 --> 00:16:37.266
are increasing so we can see on
the  top left of this where

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2982-2
00:16:37.266 --> 00:16:42.546
we're kind of below 0.1 portion
of the land area, but above an

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/2982-3
00:16:42.546 --> 00:16:46.570
LPI of 10. We see that these are
very vertical.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3004-0
00:16:46.580 --> 00:16:52.184
So we're seeing the same amount
of area has an LPI exceeding of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3004-1
00:16:52.184 --> 00:16:55.250
10, as has an LPI exceeding of
20.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3023-0
00:16:55.580 --> 00:17:00.160
So really, it's where we expect
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3059-0
00:17:00.170 --> 00:17:04.903
We expect more severe
liquefaction and so we can see

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3059-1
00:17:04.903 --> 00:17:10.262
where the extent and severity
are interplaying. And finally

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3059-2
00:17:10.262 --> 00:17:15.621
another use in this is that we
can find some equally likely

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3059-3
00:17:15.621 --> 00:17:17.140
hazard scenarios.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3100-0
00:17:18.030 --> 00:17:22.146
So, if we look along those
contours, we can see that it's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3100-1
00:17:22.146 --> 00:17:26.618
equally likely that 20% of the
area exceeds an LPI of 5 or has

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3100-2
00:17:26.618 --> 00:17:30.380
moderate liquefaction as it is
that 5% of the area, 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3126-0
00:17:30.390 --> 00:17:35.983
 so as a smaller portion, but is
exceeding saying LPI of 15 or

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3126-1
00:17:35.983 --> 00:17:38.380
even probably an LPI of 20,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3132-0
00:17:39.010 --> 00:17:40.540
so that's how much more severe

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3140-0
00:17:42.530 --> 00:17:44.000
liquefaction that we would
expect.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3171-0
00:17:49.030 --> 00:17:53.250
And coming from that, we are
looking to answer the question

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3171-1
00:17:53.250 --> 00:17:57.329
of what earthquake sources are
contributing to these high

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3171-2
00:17:57.329 --> 00:17:59.440
liquefaction hazard scenarios.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3197-0
00:17:59.750 --> 00:18:04.521
So pulling, for example one of
those from the last plot being a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3197-1
00:18:04.521 --> 00:18:07.280
20% area and an LPI threshold of
5, 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3230-0
00:18:08.160 --> 00:18:12.589
we then perform a
disaggregation, the same as we

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3230-1
00:18:12.589 --> 00:18:17.109
would on earthquake hazard
scenarios to see which

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3230-2
00:18:17.109 --> 00:18:21.810
earthquake sources are
contributing to that hazard.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3232-0
00:18:22.840 --> 00:18:24.350
So,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3272-0
00:18:25.890 --> 00:18:29.721
in this case, yeah, we're
looking at that 20% of area

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3272-1
00:18:29.721 --> 00:18:34.050
exceeding an LPI of 5, and we
can map some of these ruptured

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3272-2
00:18:34.050 --> 00:18:36.250
distances to the nearby faults.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3291-0
00:18:36.550 --> 00:18:41.606
So we know that between 0 and 20
and about 8 kilometers is the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3291-1
00:18:41.606 --> 00:18:42.730
Hayward Fault.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3328-0
00:18:43.400 --> 00:18:48.095
And and we know that at about 25
kilometers between 20 and 40 on

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3328-1
00:18:48.095 --> 00:18:52.429
this plot, we would know that
that's mostly coming from the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3328-2
00:18:52.429 --> 00:18:53.730
San Andreas fault.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3333-0
00:18:56.010 --> 00:18:56.420


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3364-0
00:18:57.010 --> 00:19:01.877
And what's interesting in this
particular map is that even some

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3364-1
00:19:01.877 --> 00:19:06.289
of these distant ruptures, so up
to 100, 120 km away, are

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3364-2
00:19:06.289 --> 00:19:09.940
contributing to a moderate
liquefaction hazard.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3404-0
00:19:15.180 --> 00:19:22.346
And now that map from the last
slide is the upper left plot in

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3404-1
00:19:22.346 --> 00:19:29.286
this set and we can create these
for different areas and for

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3404-2
00:19:29.286 --> 00:19:32.130
different LPI thresholds.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3424-0
00:19:32.490 --> 00:19:39.420
So, going left to right, we have
an area of either 0.2 or 0.4.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3444-0
00:19:39.430 --> 00:19:43.116
So we're seeing higher area of
the island expecting

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3444-1
00:19:43.116 --> 00:19:46.520
liquefaction. And going from the
top to bottom 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3458-0
00:19:46.530 --> 00:19:50.347
we're seeing a higher hazard, so
a threshold of 5 or a threshold

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3458-1
00:19:50.347 --> 00:19:50.700
of 15.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3462-0
00:19:52.640 --> 00:19:52.960


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-0
00:19:53.260 --> 00:19:57.700
And we can see that as we're
looking at these higher and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-1
00:19:57.700 --> 00:20:01.985
higher hazard and area
scenarios, we're getting closer

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-2
00:20:01.985 --> 00:20:06.815
to the closer sources and the
larger magnitude events, and we

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-3
00:20:06.815 --> 00:20:11.724
can see really clearly that the
Hayward and San Andreas faults

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-4
00:20:11.724 --> 00:20:16.632
are coming out on both of these
aggregations and this can help

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-5
00:20:16.632 --> 00:20:21.150
inform what some high hazard
events might be for scenario

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3539-6
00:20:21.150 --> 00:20:21.930
selection.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3572-0
00:20:22.800 --> 00:20:27.285
So, we see that a M7.0 on the
Hayward which is used  a lot,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3572-1
00:20:27.285 --> 00:20:30.650
used by Anne Wein for the
HayWired scenario.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3587-0
00:20:31.140 --> 00:20:34.398
So, that is definitely one that
we're seeing contribute to this

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3587-1
00:20:34.398 --> 00:20:35.010
high hazard.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3602-0
00:20:35.570 --> 00:20:41.092
And we are also seeing some San
Andreas ruptures that are

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3602-1
00:20:41.092 --> 00:20:42.330
contributing.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3623-0
00:20:42.340 --> 00:20:45.952
So, it might be interesting also
to to see what a scenario would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3623-1
00:20:45.952 --> 00:20:47.120
look like from there.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3628-0
00:20:51.100 --> 00:20:51.650


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3640-0
00:20:52.100 --> 00:20:54.730
Now I'm gonna move onto  the
risk results.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3663-0
00:20:54.740 --> 00:20:58.713
So that was all thinking about
the hazard and the actual extent

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3663-1
00:20:58.713 --> 00:21:01.570
of liquefaction and severity of
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3685-0
00:21:01.860 --> 00:21:05.310
And now I'm looking at the
losses and damages to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3685-1
00:21:05.310 --> 00:21:08.620
specifically residential
buildings on Alameda.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3700-0
00:21:10.020 --> 00:21:15.634
So on this map, each of the
colored dots are residential

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3700-1
00:21:15.634 --> 00:21:16.620
buildings.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3732-0
00:21:18.580 --> 00:21:21.819
The gray-kind of building
outlines are  buildings of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3732-1
00:21:21.819 --> 00:21:24.937
different types, so maybe
industrial or commercial

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3732-2
00:21:24.937 --> 00:21:28.299
buildings and focused on the
residential ones for this

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3732-3
00:21:28.299 --> 00:21:28.850
analysis.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3747-0
00:21:29.840 --> 00:21:32.588
And you can see that they're
concentrated on the eastern side

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3747-1
00:21:32.588 --> 00:21:33.120
of the city.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3781-0
00:21:36.600 --> 00:21:41.168
And we know that some of the
highest liquefaction hazard was

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3781-1
00:21:41.168 --> 00:21:45.736
actually on that western side,
but that's where there was a 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3781-2
00:21:45.736 --> 00:21:47.010
former naval base

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3794-0
00:21:47.020 --> 00:21:50.635
and so there's not residential
buildings in that area of the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3794-1
00:21:50.635 --> 00:21:51.050
island.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3813-0
00:21:53.860 --> 00:21:57.671
And this plot the color is
showing the expected loss ratio

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3813-1
00:21:57.671 --> 00:21:58.770
of the building, 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3863-0
00:21:58.780 --> 00:22:03.312
so combining all of the
scenarios together and seeing

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3863-1
00:22:03.312 --> 00:22:08.264
the damages both from ground
shaking using HAZUS fragility

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3863-2
00:22:08.264 --> 00:22:13.300
curves to see the expected
damage to date and expected loss

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3863-3
00:22:13.300 --> 00:22:16.490
ratio from those, and then using
the 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3904-0
00:22:18.560 --> 00:22:23.815
loss functions that I mentioned
before for liquefaction, and the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3904-1
00:22:23.815 --> 00:22:29.071
maximum losses is taken from the
two of those because of the way

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3904-2
00:22:29.071 --> 00:22:33.600
that liquefaction damage is
considered in those curves.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3944-0
00:22:35.020 --> 00:22:38.066
Basically, once the building is
damaged, if they saw

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3944-1
00:22:38.066 --> 00:22:41.686
liquefaction they can attribute
liquefaction, but it's hard to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3944-2
00:22:41.686 --> 00:22:44.502
separate back out the damage
from shaking versus

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3944-3
00:22:44.502 --> 00:22:45.250
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3960-0
00:22:45.510 --> 00:22:50.978
So all the damage is considered
together in that liquefaction

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3960-1
00:22:50.978 --> 00:22:51.420
loss.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3982-0
00:22:53.120 --> 00:22:57.167
And yeah, based on those HAZUS
fragility functions, this

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/3982-1
00:22:57.167 --> 00:23:00.150
depends on building type for the
shaking.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4040-0
00:23:00.160 --> 00:23:05.167
So both the structural type of
the building and the code year

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4040-1
00:23:05.167 --> 00:23:10.174
or what level of code it was
built to based on the age of the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4040-2
00:23:10.174 --> 00:23:15.101
building and for liquefaction
and the damage is based solely

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4040-3
00:23:15.101 --> 00:23:19.866
on that LPI at the building
location because it's combined

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4040-4
00:23:19.866 --> 00:23:22.370
for all residential structures.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4067-0
00:23:24.660 --> 00:23:29.010
And then what we can do is we
can separate out the damage

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4067-1
00:23:29.010 --> 00:23:31.410
that's coming from liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4089-0
00:23:31.720 --> 00:23:36.521
So this is showing the expected
loss ratio from liquefaction

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4089-1
00:23:36.521 --> 00:23:40.300
over that expected loss ratio
and the last map.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4126-0
00:23:42.660 --> 00:23:47.212
And again, because the maximum
of both, we can see these very

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4126-1
00:23:47.212 --> 00:23:51.910
high values, but that means that
we are expecting a high damage

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4126-2
00:23:51.910 --> 00:23:54.040
from the liquefaction itself.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4136-0
00:23:55.460 --> 00:23:57.670
Again, this is dependent on the
hazard.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4179-0
00:23:57.680 --> 00:24:02.247
Based on those loss functions
from the researchers at the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4179-1
00:24:02.247 --> 00:24:07.208
University of Washington and the
liquefaction is including all

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4179-2
00:24:07.208 --> 00:24:11.775
the damage to the building and
and the locations with the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4179-3
00:24:11.775 --> 00:24:15.870
lighter color are less
susceptible to liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4211-0
00:24:17.710 --> 00:24:21.998
And it does follow that geologic
deposit where we expect, lower

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4211-1
00:24:21.998 --> 00:24:25.885
susceptibility, even though we
still do expect a moderate

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4211-2
00:24:25.885 --> 00:24:28.030
susceptibility in that location.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4240-0
00:24:28.660 --> 00:24:32.488
But we see that it's a lot
higher in that southeastern area

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4240-1
00:24:32.488 --> 00:24:36.189
where there's high hazard as
well as kind of the northern

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4240-2
00:24:36.189 --> 00:24:36.700
portion.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4274-0
00:24:37.710 --> 00:24:41.008
And though, this is useful
because it does take into

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4274-1
00:24:41.008 --> 00:24:44.992
account the hazard, but it also
does take into account from the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4274-2
00:24:44.992 --> 00:24:48.788
shaking side the building age
and the building properties as

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4274-3
00:24:48.788 --> 00:24:49.100
well.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4291-0
00:24:53.410 --> 00:24:59.380
And from this we can see that we
can calculate total loss.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4309-0
00:24:59.750 --> 00:25:03.902
So on the Y axis we have the
exceedance rate and on the X

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4309-1
00:25:03.902 --> 00:25:05.120
axis is the loss.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4327-0
00:25:05.130 --> 00:25:10.707
The total loss in billions of
dollars and the blue line is the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4327-1
00:25:10.707 --> 00:25:11.770
lost, sorry.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4385-0
00:25:11.840 --> 00:25:16.841
The darker blue line is the loss
from ground shaking alone, so if

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4385-1
00:25:16.841 --> 00:25:21.237
we ran this analysis just with
the PGA and with the HAZUS

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4385-2
00:25:21.237 --> 00:25:25.708
fragility curves, that's the
loss exceedance that we would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4385-3
00:25:25.708 --> 00:25:29.724
get from that analysis. If we
just took into account

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4385-4
00:25:29.724 --> 00:25:30.710
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4387-0
00:25:31.340 --> 00:25:31.890


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4421-0
00:25:32.240 --> 00:25:37.049
Then we will get that lighter
blue line which we see captures

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4421-1
00:25:37.049 --> 00:25:42.091
a lot of the more frequent rates
because it is including kind of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4421-2
00:25:42.091 --> 00:25:43.410
the total damage.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4454-0
00:25:44.070 --> 00:25:48.389
but it's dropping off more
quickly, which is likely because

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4454-1
00:25:48.389 --> 00:25:52.852
we're not seeing then the damage
for the buildings that maybe

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4454-2
00:25:52.852 --> 00:25:54.940
don't experience liquefaction

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4470-0
00:25:54.950 --> 00:25:58.326
very much, but would have
damages from ground shaking and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4470-1
00:25:58.326 --> 00:26:00.190
those high return period events.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4473-0
00:26:02.130 --> 00:26:02.450


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4515-0
00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:07.599
And then when we calculate them
together, we get this black line

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4515-1
00:26:07.599 --> 00:26:11.246
of the total loss and you can
see that obviously neither

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4515-2
00:26:11.246 --> 00:26:14.510
hazard predicts the losses as
high as exceedances.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4572-0
00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:20.589
And it's also not additive of
the two, so  it's important that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4572-1
00:26:20.589 --> 00:26:25.503
we consider both in the same
analysis to get that full

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4572-2
00:26:25.503 --> 00:26:31.043
picture  and to give an extent,
an idea of the scale of this,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4572-3
00:26:31.043 --> 00:26:35.600
the total portfolio value is
about $5 Billion USD.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4574-0
00:26:35.610 --> 00:26:36.050


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4581-0
00:26:36.060 --> 00:26:39.340
So the very, very high.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4599-0
00:26:39.880 --> 00:26:45.629
And a very low exceedance rate
events are getting to about 3

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4599-1
00:26:45.629 --> 00:26:48.080
just below $3 Billion USD.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4618-0
00:26:53.440 --> 00:26:57.158
Now I'm going to pull a little
bit from that work that Anne

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4618-1
00:26:57.158 --> 00:26:59.080
mentioned the housing recovery 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4620-0
00:27:00.770 --> 00:27:01.350
because 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4657-0
00:27:03.000 --> 00:27:06.517
the way that I think about it is
we can look at this loss, but we

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4657-1
00:27:06.517 --> 00:27:09.715
don't really know necessarily
the impact that loss has when

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4657-2
00:27:09.715 --> 00:27:11.900
we're stopping at kind of dollar
values.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4678-0
00:27:12.860 --> 00:27:17.599
So now moving a little bit into
how we would think about

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4678-1
00:27:17.599 --> 00:27:20.260
simulating the impact to humans.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4707-0
00:27:20.270 --> 00:27:25.986
So, this is some work that I did
with Rodrigo Costa, Adam

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4707-1
00:27:25.986 --> 00:27:29.830
Zsarnoczay, and my advisor Jack
Baker.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4720-0
00:27:30.290 --> 00:27:33.030
And this is on some housing
recovery modeling.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4745-0
00:27:33.540 --> 00:27:37.928
So this really connects the loss
at each building location and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4745-1
00:27:37.928 --> 00:27:41.760
the dollar loss for each
building to the human impact.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4753-0
00:27:42.630 --> 00:27:46.010
So the financing to repair from 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4773-0
00:27:48.170 --> 00:27:52.257
an earthquake or from an event
comes from some major public and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4773-1
00:27:52.257 --> 00:27:53.790
private funding sources.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4776-0
00:27:55.100 --> 00:27:55.430


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4818-0
00:27:55.440 --> 00:27:58.310
And this flow chart is just, you
know, not supposed to really be

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4818-1
00:27:58.310 --> 00:28:01.048
able to read it, but it's just
to give you an idea of kind of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4818-2
00:28:01.048 --> 00:28:03.742
the different sources and how it
maybe splits into different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4818-3
00:28:03.742 --> 00:28:04.140
programs 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4841-0
00:28:04.150 --> 00:28:07.716
and you have to go through all
of these, all these different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4841-1
00:28:07.716 --> 00:28:11.050
programs to see, do you have
enough money yet to repair?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4849-0
00:28:11.060 --> 00:28:12.700
Do you need to apply to
something else?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4883-0
00:28:13.960 --> 00:28:18.904
And so it depends on income, of
course, of the likelihood of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4883-1
00:28:18.904 --> 00:28:23.767
people getting things like bank
loans and then our work has

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4883-2
00:28:23.767 --> 00:28:27.090
included now also multifamily
buildings.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4906-0
00:28:27.100 --> 00:28:31.428
So there are different sources
for multifamily versus single

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4906-1
00:28:31.428 --> 00:28:35.190
family buildings as well as the
tenure or ownership,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4923-0
00:28:35.200 --> 00:28:39.320
so whether it's owner, renter,
occupied makes a big difference,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4946-0
00:28:39.750 --> 00:28:44.678
And as far as renter occupied,
its typically a landlord that's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4946-1
00:28:44.678 --> 00:28:46.790
applying for those repairs.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4952-0
00:28:46.800 --> 00:28:48.590
It's not the renters themselves.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4998-0
00:28:48.600 --> 00:28:54.140
So ths is all taken into account
in a model that looks at these

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4998-1
00:28:54.140 --> 00:28:59.333
actual processes and takes into
account the steps that each

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4998-2
00:28:59.333 --> 00:29:04.614
household or each owner of a
building would take in order to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/4998-3
00:29:04.614 --> 00:29:05.220
repair.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5005-0
00:29:07.470 --> 00:29:09.250
So I've applied this to.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5025-0
00:29:11.180 --> 00:29:17.800
 the liquefaction damages in the
in this regional study  and.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5037-0
00:29:19.940 --> 00:29:21.010
that slide is running.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5053-0
00:29:21.020 --> 00:29:24.586
It's only including rental units
because it's only single family

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5053-1
00:29:24.586 --> 00:29:24.970
housing

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5071-0
00:29:24.980 --> 00:29:29.607
Based on the liquefaction
fragility, so the liquefaction

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5071-1
00:29:29.607 --> 00:29:33.910
loss is only calculated for
single family buildings.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5098-0
00:29:34.760 --> 00:29:40.496
But looking at all of the
possible financing sources and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5098-1
00:29:40.496 --> 00:29:46.736
ability to finance repairs can
get us an annual rate of unmet

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5098-2
00:29:46.736 --> 00:29:47.240
need.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5126-0
00:29:47.690 --> 00:29:52.400
And so if a household has
applied to all of the five major

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5126-1
00:29:52.400 --> 00:29:57.270
funding sources, and they still
don't have enough to repair.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-0
00:29:57.990 --> 00:30:02.520
Of course it's possible in
reality that they figure it out

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-1
00:30:02.520 --> 00:30:07.127
some other way, but this would
still mean that it's a large

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-2
00:30:07.127 --> 00:30:11.964
burden for them to be able to
recover and so we use this unmet

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-3
00:30:11.964 --> 00:30:17.032
need as a proxy for non recovery
or just a proxy that it's a very

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-4
00:30:17.032 --> 00:30:21.639
big challenge to recover and we
can see this annual rate of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-5
00:30:21.639 --> 00:30:26.169
unmet need in the plot on top
between the rental and owner

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-6
00:30:26.169 --> 00:30:30.776
occupied units, the lighter
colors of blue are lower annual

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-7
00:30:30.776 --> 00:30:35.844
rates of unmet need and then the
darker the color it's the higher

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-8
00:30:35.844 --> 00:30:40.758
rate of having unmet need and we
can see that on the right plot

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-9
00:30:40.758 --> 00:30:45.365
on the right set of bars that
the renter occupied buildings

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-10
00:30:45.365 --> 00:30:49.973
are disproportionately having
higher rates of not obtaining

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-11
00:30:49.973 --> 00:30:54.656
funding and not being able to
repair and this is useful. The

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-12
00:30:54.656 --> 00:30:59.340
plot on the bottom is showing
that annual rate of unmet need

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-13
00:30:59.340 --> 00:31:04.101
and we don't necessarily notice
it spatially but we know that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-14
00:31:04.101 --> 00:31:08.938
this is then taking into account
the amount of hazard that the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-15
00:31:08.938 --> 00:31:13.622
different locations are exposed
to and it's also taking into

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5357-16
00:31:13.622 --> 00:31:18.460
account for the ground shaking
damage the age of the building.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5365-0
00:31:18.900 --> 00:31:21.470
So it's not just the hazard, but
the exposure.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5397-0
00:31:21.600 --> 00:31:26.994
And then also it's taking into
account the income and the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5397-1
00:31:26.994 --> 00:31:31.923
renter 10 year status of the
household that owns the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5397-2
00:31:31.923 --> 00:31:32.760
building.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5399-0
00:31:33.400 --> 00:31:33.750


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5423-0
00:31:34.100 --> 00:31:37.313
And so we can see how all of
those things are combined to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5423-1
00:31:37.313 --> 00:31:40.692
give us a bigger picture of how
people are impacted by these

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5423-2
00:31:40.692 --> 00:31:41.080
events.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5432-0
00:31:45.930 --> 00:31:47.890
So I might have gone fast
[laughs] but 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5449-0
00:31:49.490 --> 00:31:53.800
 I will just give you some of
the key takeaways from this.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5487-0
00:31:53.810 --> 00:31:57.593
First, I laid out this
methodology of how we can

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5487-1
00:31:57.593 --> 00:32:02.380
combine on a regional scale and
run a liquefaction hazard and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5487-2
00:32:02.380 --> 00:32:06.550
risk analysis, combining some
different data sources.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5526-0
00:32:08.200 --> 00:32:12.540
I showed you this new regional
metric of liquefaction hazard

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5526-1
00:32:12.540 --> 00:32:17.022
extent and severity where we can
see both the portions of area

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5526-2
00:32:17.022 --> 00:32:21.220
and the severity of flick of
faction that we might expect.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5530-0
00:32:22.930 --> 00:32:23.220


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5534-0
00:32:23.710 --> 00:32:25.960
I disaggregated on these
different 

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5564-0
00:32:27.420 --> 00:32:32.201
combinations of area and
liquefaction and LPI exceedance

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5564-1
00:32:32.201 --> 00:32:37.570
in order to see which earthquake
sources are leading the most .

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5568-0
00:32:37.580 --> 00:32:39.440
to this high liquefaction
hazard.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5605-0
00:32:42.220 --> 00:32:47.619
I calculated the loss from each
of these events to see how much

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5605-1
00:32:47.619 --> 00:32:52.680
damage and monetary loss the
community is experiencing from

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5605-2
00:32:52.680 --> 00:32:58.080
both the combination of ground
shaking and liquefaction hazard.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5627-0
00:33:00.260 --> 00:33:04.561
And then I showed how this loss
can be translated into unmet

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5627-1
00:33:04.561 --> 00:33:07.170
need using a housing recovery
model.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5631-0
00:33:07.660 --> 00:33:08.130


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5653-0
00:33:08.540 --> 00:33:12.776
And how we can consider
inequities or the impacts of the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5653-1
00:33:12.776 --> 00:33:16.270
actual damages and of the
liquefaction events.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5658-0
00:33:19.480 --> 00:33:19.910


be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5663-0
00:33:20.340 --> 00:33:21.790
So I'll give you this.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5720-0
00:33:22.100 --> 00:33:26.160
Takeaway is that we can
incorporate a liquefaction into

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5720-1
00:33:26.160 --> 00:33:30.728
our regional earthquake hazard
and risk analysis and if you're

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5720-2
00:33:30.728 --> 00:33:35.006
interested in using any part of
that workflow, the code is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5720-3
00:33:35.006 --> 00:33:39.647
available on my GitHub, which is
emongold, and it's the same as

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5720-4
00:33:39.647 --> 00:33:40.300
my email.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5736-0
00:33:40.310 --> 00:33:43.123
So if anyone is interested or
wants to reach out about any of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5736-1
00:33:43.123 --> 00:33:43.350
this.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5749-0
00:33:44.810 --> 00:33:46.890
I would love to talk and love to
take questions now.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5754-0
00:33:56.280 --> 00:33:56.930
3rd question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5759-0
00:33:58.720 --> 00:33:59.450
OK, go.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5762-0
00:33:59.510 --> 00:33:59.880
Stuff.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5765-0
00:33:59.890 --> 00:34:01.000
Just take one second.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5776-0
00:34:08.470 --> 00:34:12.120
Alrighty, so let's open it up.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5783-0
00:34:12.130 --> 00:34:13.480
Thank you for a great talk.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5792-0
00:34:14.350 --> 00:34:16.840
I see a hand raised online.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5797-0
00:34:16.850 --> 00:34:17.540
Let's see.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5809-0
00:34:18.670 --> 00:34:20.806
Kevin Miller, do you wanna
unmute yourself and ask your

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5809-1
00:34:20.806 --> 00:34:21.150
question?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5811-0
00:34:22.760 --> 00:34:23.430
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5816-0
00:34:23.440 --> 00:34:23.840
Hi, Emily.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5835-0
00:34:24.130 --> 00:34:28.526
Uh, first of all, great talk and
I'm really happy to hear you're

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5835-1
00:34:28.526 --> 00:34:30.420
using results from open SSH.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5860-0
00:34:30.430 --> 00:34:35.355
A uh, my question is about the
the regional calculations you

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5845-0
00:34:32.300 --> 00:34:32.490
It's.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5860-1
00:34:35.355 --> 00:34:39.150
showed around slide, I think is
like 16 or so.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5875-0
00:34:40.550 --> 00:34:44.263
Umm, how do you account for
spatial correlation in those

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5875-1
00:34:44.263 --> 00:34:45.110
calculations?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5922-0
00:34:45.910 --> 00:34:48.747
When we do those types of
analysis for ground motion

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5922-1
00:34:48.747 --> 00:34:51.692
hazard, we typically need to
account for the spatially

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5922-2
00:34:51.692 --> 00:34:54.904
correlated ground motions, and
I'm wondering how that plays

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5922-3
00:34:54.904 --> 00:34:57.689
into your calculations and
taking it might apply to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5922-4
00:34:57.689 --> 00:34:59.670
liquefaction susceptibility as
well.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5927-0
00:35:01.290 --> 00:35:02.700
Umm. Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5930-0
00:35:02.710 --> 00:35:03.250
Thank you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5935-0
00:35:03.490 --> 00:35:04.660
That's a great question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5951-0
00:35:04.670 --> 00:35:10.710
So umm for the ground motions,
the correlation models?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5967-0
00:35:11.110 --> 00:35:14.014
Uh, are you so that the
Galatians themselves, the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5967-1
00:35:14.014 --> 00:35:15.990
FPGA's, are spatially
correlated?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5984-0
00:35:16.970 --> 00:35:21.340
Uh, and then for the and soil
model.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/5994-0
00:35:21.350 --> 00:35:26.270
So for the 3D model of the soil
across the island.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6058-0
00:35:30.700 --> 00:35:35.584
From this step, the sequential
Gaussian simulations use a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6058-1
00:35:35.584 --> 00:35:40.973
variogram which is spread to the
fit to the actual data, and so

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6058-2
00:35:40.973 --> 00:35:45.183
that gives an idea of the
correlation of the soil

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6058-3
00:35:45.183 --> 00:35:50.489
properties in the vertical and
then the horizontal directions,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6058-4
00:35:50.489 --> 00:35:55.710
and so that's applied to the
sequential cache in simulations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6106-0
00:35:55.870 --> 00:36:00.251
So we actually see, but some of
this layering that we would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6106-1
00:36:00.251 --> 00:36:04.560
expect in the soil in the
simulated soil data because they

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6106-2
00:36:04.560 --> 00:36:09.379
have a higher correlation in the
horizontal direction than in the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6106-3
00:36:09.379 --> 00:36:10.110
verticals.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6111-0
00:36:10.120 --> 00:36:10.950
So that we can.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6126-0
00:36:11.730 --> 00:36:15.480
So yeah, we capture the layering
in the spatial relations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6128-0
00:36:23.210 --> 00:36:23.490
Alright.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6145-0
00:36:25.880 --> 00:36:31.954
Josie, in the great talk in the
hazard disaggregation that you

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6145-1
00:36:31.954 --> 00:36:32.340
did?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6178-0
00:36:32.630 --> 00:36:36.387
I'm curious about the word
distal sources and whether that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6178-1
00:36:36.387 --> 00:36:40.271
might represent something like
the theater, and if you could

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6178-2
00:36:40.271 --> 00:36:43.710
use that event on the comparison
for your simulation.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6187-0
00:36:47.770 --> 00:36:49.990
Yeah, that's a that's a great
point.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6195-0
00:36:51.310 --> 00:36:52.410
I'm not sure exactly what.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6220-0
00:36:55.150 --> 00:36:57.756
What faults of those came from
but it, but it definitely is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6220-1
00:36:57.756 --> 00:36:59.320
possible that it's more similar
to.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6243-0
00:37:00.660 --> 00:37:07.166
I'm afraid that I haven't done
any any validation yet, and I

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6243-1
00:37:07.166 --> 00:37:09.620
think that it would be.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6258-0
00:37:09.670 --> 00:37:12.849
Yeah, it would be slightly
different because it would be

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6258-1
00:37:12.849 --> 00:37:15.080
probabilistic, but still on that
event.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6275-0
00:37:15.090 --> 00:37:19.377
So we need like multiple
simulations of of the possible

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6275-1
00:37:19.377 --> 00:37:21.980
both soil and and ground
shaking.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6298-0
00:37:23.490 --> 00:37:26.573
But that to get kind of a
balance of of what we would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6298-1
00:37:26.573 --> 00:37:28.400
expect versus what we're seeing.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6303-0
00:37:28.550 --> 00:37:31.050
But yeah, it's a.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6306-0
00:37:34.240 --> 00:37:34.760
Jim.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6308-0
00:37:35.160 --> 00:37:35.340
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6311-0
00:37:35.350 --> 00:37:36.100
Thank you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6329-0
00:37:36.440 --> 00:37:39.832
So wondering through the this
slide here, did you keep the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6329-1
00:37:39.832 --> 00:37:41.270
groundwater level in the?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6348-0
00:37:41.360 --> 00:37:45.365
So much your constant, and if
you didn't, did you see any

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6348-1
00:37:45.365 --> 00:37:46.470
changes between?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6367-0
00:37:46.480 --> 00:37:50.432
Like say we are going to be in
the winter versus the summer and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6367-1
00:37:50.432 --> 00:37:51.730
how that affected it.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6373-0
00:37:51.790 --> 00:37:53.330
OK, the diction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6377-0
00:37:55.240 --> 00:37:55.650
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6380-0
00:37:55.660 --> 00:37:56.110
Thank you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6388-0
00:37:56.120 --> 00:37:58.130
That's that's a great question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6395-0
00:37:58.140 --> 00:38:00.100
So I did very the water depth.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6423-0
00:38:01.980 --> 00:38:08.461
As part of the sensitivity study
on this and and we only have

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6423-1
00:38:08.461 --> 00:38:13.480
data from one set of from that
same set of CPT.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6427-0
00:38:13.490 --> 00:38:14.340
So we don't have.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6458-0
00:38:17.530 --> 00:38:21.744
We don't have seasonal data
necessarily, but but there are

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6458-1
00:38:21.744 --> 00:38:26.101
other studies that have looked
at at seasonal change and the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6458-2
00:38:26.101 --> 00:38:27.530
uncertainty on that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6477-0
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:33.644
And so based on that I used
about 2 meters of shift and that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6477-1
00:38:33.644 --> 00:38:34.940
is one of the.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6502-0
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:39.964
So the two most important
variables that played in were

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6502-1
00:38:39.964 --> 00:38:43.324
the equation that was used for
for LPI, and then that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6502-2
00:38:43.324 --> 00:38:44.320
groundwater gap.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6512-0
00:38:45.890 --> 00:38:47.780
So yeah, that is important.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6547-0
00:38:47.790 --> 00:38:51.074
And that's also part of
communications to include more

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6547-1
00:38:51.074 --> 00:38:54.836
of the sea level rise also into
that seems like longer term is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6547-2
00:38:54.836 --> 00:38:58.360
like this long term drought good
for the for the vacation.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6553-0
00:39:01.460 --> 00:39:02.240
The longer the better.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6561-0
00:39:05.030 --> 00:39:07.220
Yeah, that could be a surprise.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6568-0
00:39:07.230 --> 00:39:09.110
Positive from from a long job.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6594-0
00:39:11.730 --> 00:39:15.860
Well, could you say more about
how you calculate the action

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6594-1
00:39:15.860 --> 00:39:19.990
potential index and do you need
a cone penetration test to?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6598-0
00:39:22.270 --> 00:39:22.840
Obtained it.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6600-0
00:39:23.190 --> 00:39:24.130
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6621-0
00:39:24.640 --> 00:39:31.568
So the LPI is based on, has been
set with multiple different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6621-1
00:39:31.568 --> 00:39:33.840
empirical equations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6636-0
00:39:34.610 --> 00:39:38.643
So the two that I use were both
based on concentration test

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6636-1
00:39:38.643 --> 00:39:38.980
data.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6659-0
00:39:39.790 --> 00:39:45.412
There are other equations of
health Pi that are based on SPT

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6659-1
00:39:45.412 --> 00:39:49.100
standard penetration test data
and and.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6679-0
00:39:51.180 --> 00:39:55.565
Yeah, there is other research on
on like more regional metrics

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6679-1
00:39:55.565 --> 00:39:56.610
other than LPI.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6709-0
00:39:56.730 --> 00:40:03.929
It umm but for for this analysis
I use Alpi based on CBT data and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6709-1
00:40:03.929 --> 00:40:07.420
that's what plays into both the.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6769-0
00:40:07.480 --> 00:40:12.298
So the factor of safety is the
ratio of cyclic resistance to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6769-1
00:40:12.298 --> 00:40:17.116
cyclic stress, and so both of
those are based on the the two

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6769-2
00:40:17.116 --> 00:40:21.777
metrics, the QC, the yeah to
persistence and a fast asleep

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6769-3
00:40:21.777 --> 00:40:26.358
friction that come from the
concentration test as well as

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6769-4
00:40:26.358 --> 00:40:29.360
the the P GI and the magnitude
event.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6782-0
00:40:30.710 --> 00:40:36.460
So our cone penetration tests
available, why do you label for?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6799-0
00:40:38.640 --> 00:40:42.110
Areas that have liquefaction
potential or are they rare?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6804-0
00:40:43.220 --> 00:40:43.610
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6822-0
00:40:43.620 --> 00:40:47.895
So that is one of the the
biggest challenges to applying

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6822-1
00:40:47.895 --> 00:40:48.270
this.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6849-0
00:40:48.440 --> 00:40:53.340
This particular methodology is
that there are lot, so the USGS

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6849-1
00:40:53.340 --> 00:40:57.230
has a lot from the same data set
on the East Bay.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6863-0
00:40:57.620 --> 00:41:04.620
Uh, but they they're not like
coverage fully, so I'm working.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6875-0
00:41:06.840 --> 00:41:08.870
On a project also in San Mateo.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6897-0
00:41:09.180 --> 00:41:13.486
And there aren't these these
public ones, but they are

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6897-1
00:41:13.486 --> 00:41:18.185
somewhat commonly done by by
developers in these locations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6897-2
00:41:18.185 --> 00:41:18.420
So.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6914-0
00:41:20.480 --> 00:41:22.938
Yeah, getting getting the data
can be more the challenge

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6914-1
00:41:22.938 --> 00:41:23.240
though.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6936-0
00:41:24.310 --> 00:41:27.624
So I've been related question
and by the way, very nice talk

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6936-1
00:41:27.624 --> 00:41:29.580
and I'm very confident that I
like.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6966-0
00:41:29.630 --> 00:41:33.665
So how do you extrapolate away
from the limited number of CPT

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6966-1
00:41:33.665 --> 00:41:36.790
soundings or SCPT soundings to
the surrounding?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6990-0
00:41:37.710 --> 00:41:40.861
You know shallow structure, I
mean I I know people use

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6990-1
00:41:40.861 --> 00:41:44.298
velocity proxies, noninvasive
proxies to use those sorts of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/6990-2
00:41:44.298 --> 00:41:44.700
things.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7011-0
00:41:44.710 --> 00:41:48.073
There's a based upon the
generally published job, you

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7011-1
00:41:48.073 --> 00:41:50.690
know soil structures and
subsurface maps.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7017-0
00:41:51.740 --> 00:41:52.100
Umm.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7019-0
00:41:52.880 --> 00:41:53.250
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7078-0
00:41:53.260 --> 00:41:58.371
So it's it's not based on the
geologic deposit maps, it's it's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7078-1
00:41:58.371 --> 00:42:03.401
interpolated from all of the CTS
on the island and some other

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7078-2
00:42:03.401 --> 00:42:08.350
research has shown that it's
it's better to interpolate from

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7078-3
00:42:08.350 --> 00:42:13.624
everything instead of separating
and interpolating just within a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7078-4
00:42:13.624 --> 00:42:14.760
geologic zone.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7101-0
00:42:15.070 --> 00:42:19.880
And so, yeah, the very ground
that I mentioned before is what

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7101-1
00:42:19.880 --> 00:42:23.140
stands in for those spatial
correlations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7113-0
00:42:24.710 --> 00:42:26.640
So you assume a certain
variability.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7125-0
00:42:26.940 --> 00:42:29.180
There are enough CPT soundings
on Alameda.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7135-0
00:42:29.190 --> 00:42:30.810
You can get pretty good spatial
coverage.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7143-0
00:42:31.850 --> 00:42:33.320
Umm yeah, there is.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7147-0
00:42:33.370 --> 00:42:35.530
There's 21 across the island.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7151-0
00:42:37.950 --> 00:42:38.180
Right.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7178-0
00:42:39.420 --> 00:42:43.269
Umm, there is a quick question
in the chat from keep nutzen,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7178-1
00:42:43.269 --> 00:42:46.930
but I believe Steve your
question covered the same topic.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7214-0
00:42:46.940 --> 00:42:51.147
So Keith, if if you have
remaining questions about the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7214-1
00:42:51.147 --> 00:42:55.354
you know kind of going from
point CPT tests to kind of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7214-2
00:42:55.354 --> 00:42:58.950
extrapolation for their beyond
the point data.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7223-0
00:42:59.020 --> 00:42:59.690
Please chime in.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7224-0
00:43:01.110 --> 00:43:01.380
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7227-0
00:43:01.390 --> 00:43:01.680
Thanks.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7246-0
00:43:01.690 --> 00:43:06.839
I I will great talk and I I
really, really appreciate the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7246-1
00:43:06.839 --> 00:43:10.390
challenging nature of this ohh
problem.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7269-0
00:43:10.400 --> 00:43:14.196
You're you're starting with the
soils and the ground motions and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7269-1
00:43:14.196 --> 00:43:16.882
going all the way to
probabilistic losses and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7269-2
00:43:16.882 --> 00:43:17.350
impacts.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7274-0
00:43:17.360 --> 00:43:18.840
So that's not easy.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7284-0
00:43:18.850 --> 00:43:20.740
Congratulations on all the work
you're doing.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7350-0
00:43:21.470 --> 00:43:26.396
Umm yeah, so the the question
Steve asked is really what the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7350-1
00:43:26.396 --> 00:43:31.566
one I I am interested in and I I
think I understand what you've

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7350-2
00:43:31.566 --> 00:43:36.008
done, but you just made a
comment in response to Steve

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7350-3
00:43:36.008 --> 00:43:40.450
saying that these sort of
creaking based or geospatial

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7350-4
00:43:40.450 --> 00:43:45.135
statistic approaches have been
shown to do better than uh

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7350-5
00:43:45.135 --> 00:43:46.670
geologic map based.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7390-0
00:43:48.760 --> 00:43:53.758
Uh, characterizations of the of
the liquefaction susceptibility

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7390-1
00:43:53.758 --> 00:43:58.522
and I'm not aware of those or
maybe kick how, how do I learn

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7390-2
00:43:58.522 --> 00:44:02.350
about these, these studies that
have shown that?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7415-0
00:44:04.320 --> 00:44:09.822
Umm, so I don't know that it's
better than like a different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7415-1
00:44:09.822 --> 00:44:14.500
type of of like perfection
analysis in that sense.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-0
00:44:16.020 --> 00:44:21.868
I I can follow up with the the
paper that I'm referring to that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-1
00:44:21.868 --> 00:44:26.711
I that I cite because it
basically says that for the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-2
00:44:26.711 --> 00:44:32.559
liquefaction calculations that
it doesn't make, it doesn't make

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-3
00:44:32.559 --> 00:44:38.042
a difference if you separate
them off and it's better if we

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-4
00:44:38.042 --> 00:44:43.525
have the more data to to create
the the full spatial spread

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-5
00:44:43.525 --> 00:44:49.007
instead of trying to use much
fewer points that are within,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7501-6
00:44:49.007 --> 00:44:50.470
umm one deposit.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7504-0
00:44:54.510 --> 00:44:54.840
OK.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7506-0
00:44:54.850 --> 00:44:55.220
Thanks.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7542-0
00:44:55.230 --> 00:44:59.688
Yeah, I I think it's always been
a challenge deciding how much

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7542-1
00:44:59.688 --> 00:45:03.793
how much of this kind of point
data, LPI, for example, is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7542-2
00:45:03.793 --> 00:45:07.120
sufficient to adequately
characterize an area.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7561-0
00:45:07.130 --> 00:45:09.572
And then if we change to a
different area in a different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7561-1
00:45:09.572 --> 00:45:11.500
geologic setting, how much data
do you need?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7595-0
00:45:12.300 --> 00:45:17.092
And I my personal belief is that
marrying the two approaches of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7595-1
00:45:17.092 --> 00:45:21.210
using uh, at least few
statistical approaches combined

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7595-2
00:45:21.210 --> 00:45:24.580
with what we know about the
surface geology.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7623-0
00:45:25.650 --> 00:45:29.728
Umm might be at the best
product, but I I'd love to love

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7623-1
00:45:29.728 --> 00:45:32.590
to hear what or I'd love to
learn what?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7617-0
00:45:29.730 --> 00:45:30.000
They.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7633-0
00:45:32.640 --> 00:45:35.480
What reference here here
exciting or just writing?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7642-0
00:45:38.180 --> 00:45:39.010
Here's your question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7646-0
00:45:38.500 --> 00:45:38.840
Thank you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7647-0
00:45:39.930 --> 00:45:40.200
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7690-0
00:45:40.210 --> 00:45:44.346
I think for the great talk to
your estimates of risk or loss

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7690-1
00:45:44.346 --> 00:45:48.822
ratios have uncertainties and if
they do, do you have a sense for

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7690-2
00:45:48.822 --> 00:45:52.890
which component of the analysis
is contributing the most of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7690-3
00:45:52.890 --> 00:45:53.230
this?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7700-0
00:45:54.820 --> 00:45:59.740
And yeah, so so on the, on the
LPI.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7744-0
00:46:01.590 --> 00:46:06.360
On the hazard side, so not going
all the way through to rest, but

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7744-1
00:46:06.360 --> 00:46:10.407
but as far as the liquefaction
hazard and the empirical

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7744-2
00:46:10.407 --> 00:46:14.310
equation for LPI that's used is
is very important so.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7774-0
00:46:16.900 --> 00:46:20.967
Uh, I've used too, and it would
be interesting to to use even

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7774-1
00:46:20.967 --> 00:46:24.970
more to to see how much they
agree or how important that is.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7785-0
00:46:25.490 --> 00:46:29.890
And then the watered down as
well as is important.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7788-0
00:46:33.320 --> 00:46:33.520
Right.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7803-0
00:46:34.430 --> 00:46:36.400
Ohh, first of all 'cause you
didn't get it.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7806-0
00:46:36.410 --> 00:46:37.660
Keith is geologist.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7809-0
00:46:37.840 --> 00:46:38.420
Yep, yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7822-0
00:46:40.720 --> 00:46:45.260
He was politely emphasizing that
maybe you should revisit this.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7829-0
00:46:47.170 --> 00:46:48.040
A terrific talk.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7854-0
00:46:48.050 --> 00:46:51.204
It was really, really clear and
I'm no expert in this field and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7854-1
00:46:51.204 --> 00:46:53.620
I felt like I learned a lot, so
congratulations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7868-0
00:46:54.910 --> 00:47:00.190
I have questions very similar to
to Josie's you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7881-0
00:47:00.300 --> 00:47:03.464
You did this aggregation to come
up with, you know, from all

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7881-1
00:47:03.464 --> 00:47:03.880
sources.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7884-0
00:47:05.730 --> 00:47:06.180
What?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7901-0
00:47:06.290 --> 00:47:11.158
What these various parameters
are related to liquefaction loss

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7901-1
00:47:11.158 --> 00:47:12.240
and potential.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7915-0
00:47:12.860 --> 00:47:19.760
Ohh, I'm interested in as a
function of magnitude and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7915-1
00:47:19.760 --> 00:47:20.910
distance.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7929-0
00:47:23.160 --> 00:47:26.721
Can you look at sort of the
threshold for for significant

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7929-1
00:47:26.721 --> 00:47:27.520
liquefaction?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7943-0
00:47:28.400 --> 00:47:31.560
Uh Alameda Island or or in the
other place?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7970-0
00:47:32.290 --> 00:47:36.619
I mean, for example is a A
magnitude 5 1/2 on the Hayward

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7970-1
00:47:36.619 --> 00:47:39.830
fault because efficient much
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7996-0
00:47:39.840 --> 00:47:44.662
And then Jose's question for the
lumber breed earthquake 8090

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7996-1
00:47:44.662 --> 00:47:49.018
kilometers away, there was there
was damage in the like

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/7996-2
00:47:49.018 --> 00:47:50.030
liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8005-0
00:47:50.370 --> 00:47:54.960
So presumably you can pull that
out and disaggregation.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8009-0
00:47:55.170 --> 00:47:55.900
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8026-0
00:47:56.950 --> 00:47:59.832
Yeah, I think that's a lot of
what we see from the designation

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8026-1
00:47:59.832 --> 00:48:00.930
is that we can get that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8045-0
00:48:03.160 --> 00:48:07.316
Probably even to to have very
confident balance doing even

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8045-1
00:48:07.316 --> 00:48:09.500
more probabilistic simulations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8053-0
00:48:09.510 --> 00:48:14.080
So this is like one signing
issue per.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8067-0
00:48:15.180 --> 00:48:18.971
Fracture scenario, yeah, but
obviously doing more for each

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8067-1
00:48:18.971 --> 00:48:19.550
scenario.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8076-0
00:48:19.920 --> 00:48:22.830
We give a little bit more idea.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8100-0
00:48:22.840 --> 00:48:27.392
It's like maybe a maybe a small
range you could contribute to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8100-1
00:48:27.392 --> 00:48:30.550
that, but but we didn't see it
in in this.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8118-0
00:48:33.450 --> 00:48:37.560
But yeah, there's I think
there's desperation plots.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8123-0
00:48:37.570 --> 00:48:39.340
And if, if you're curious about.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8167-0
00:48:41.290 --> 00:48:45.623
About a different metric, so we
can we can say the losses that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8167-1
00:48:45.623 --> 00:48:49.544
exceed a certain a certain
barrier and disaggregate from

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8167-2
00:48:49.544 --> 00:48:53.190
that and see see which sources
it to that and so on.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8169-0
00:48:54.330 --> 00:48:54.670
Thank you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8182-0
00:48:56.620 --> 00:48:59.050
Umm Ben Mason has a question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8191-0
00:48:59.060 --> 00:49:00.660
Do you want to unmute yourself
and ask your question?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8196-0
00:49:03.330 --> 00:49:03.900
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8198-0
00:49:03.910 --> 00:49:04.440
Thanks.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8205-0
00:49:04.490 --> 00:49:05.420
So thanks, Emily.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8207-0
00:49:05.430 --> 00:49:05.740
I'm.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8211-0
00:49:05.750 --> 00:49:06.530
I'm Ben Mason.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8222-0
00:49:06.540 --> 00:49:10.360
I'm at the geologic Hazard
Center and Golden Co.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8232-0
00:49:10.990 --> 00:49:12.620
Thanks so much for your talk.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8239-0
00:49:13.070 --> 00:49:15.840
My my interest was on the soil
simulations.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8282-0
00:49:17.420 --> 00:49:22.350
And if you can add or how
computationally expensive those

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8282-1
00:49:22.350 --> 00:49:27.790
are, and if you could add those
into your workflow so you could

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8282-2
00:49:27.790 --> 00:49:32.380
consider multiple souls
simulations and then consider

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8282-3
00:49:32.380 --> 00:49:34.590
the uncertainty with that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8331-0
00:49:35.120 --> 00:49:39.850
And on top of that, I'm
wondering if you can also at the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8331-1
00:49:39.850 --> 00:49:45.161
same time and corporate geology
into this this workflow somehow

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8331-2
00:49:45.161 --> 00:49:50.639
because you know Alameda Island,
I think it's a very smart choice

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8331-3
00:49:50.639 --> 00:49:52.880
of a place to start, right?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8380-0
00:49:52.930 --> 00:49:57.276
There's a lot of data and we
also know it's gonna liquify

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8380-1
00:49:57.276 --> 00:50:01.922
spectacularly, but I'm curious,
as you're moving to less base

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8380-2
00:50:01.922 --> 00:50:06.343
heads and and harder sights if
you can incorporate some of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8380-3
00:50:06.343 --> 00:50:10.990
these more sophisticated things
into your analysis procedure.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8387-0
00:50:11.220 --> 00:50:11.800
Thanks so much.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8385-0
00:50:12.930 --> 00:50:13.320
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8389-0
00:50:13.330 --> 00:50:13.710
Thank you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8424-0
00:50:13.960 --> 00:50:18.356
And so to to address the first
part of that question and this

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8424-1
00:50:18.356 --> 00:50:22.894
is, yeah, so I do run sequential
Gaussian simulations with with

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8424-2
00:50:22.894 --> 00:50:24.880
uncertainty on that as well.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8447-0
00:50:25.540 --> 00:50:31.060
So the the variogram parameters
are given ranges that are that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8447-1
00:50:31.060 --> 00:50:34.040
are reasonable based on the
data.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8462-0
00:50:34.750 --> 00:50:39.181
To see how sensitive the the
final local faction is from

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8462-1
00:50:39.181 --> 00:50:39.570
that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8498-0
00:50:39.750 --> 00:50:43.211
So when I mentioned before that
the LPI creation in the water

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8498-1
00:50:43.211 --> 00:50:45.890
depths aren't the most
important, these certain

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8498-2
00:50:45.890 --> 00:50:49.240
parameters for the variogram did
not make a big difference.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8528-0
00:50:49.250 --> 00:50:54.125
They they were not important
parameters and based on that so

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8528-1
00:50:54.125 --> 00:50:59.240
in that sense every each of the
2000 runs does have a different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8528-2
00:50:59.240 --> 00:50:59.880
scenery.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-0
00:50:59.950 --> 00:51:04.302
Soil umm 3 I got 3D grid that
you see there and and yes

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-1
00:51:04.302 --> 00:51:08.966
definitely incorporating a
different a different soil model

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-2
00:51:08.966 --> 00:51:13.630
would definitely be great and
you could still you could run

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-3
00:51:13.630 --> 00:51:18.682
the whole analysis as long as if
it either still outputs and LPI

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-4
00:51:18.682 --> 00:51:23.035
or if you have a different
damage or loss function from

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-5
00:51:23.035 --> 00:51:28.087
that metric which I think that's
one of the maybe the more major

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-6
00:51:28.087 --> 00:51:32.984
holdups from my end of trying to
look all the way through rest

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-7
00:51:32.984 --> 00:51:37.725
and we have to have of course
the data to run the the hazard

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-8
00:51:37.725 --> 00:51:42.389
simulation but we also have to
have the loss function to to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-9
00:51:42.389 --> 00:51:47.208
estimate damage to buildings so
because that was the end goal

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-10
00:51:47.208 --> 00:51:52.183
the loss function there aren't
there aren't many that I've seen

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-11
00:51:52.183 --> 00:51:57.235
the the one that the researchers
at University of Washington are

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-12
00:51:57.235 --> 00:52:01.744
working on is based on LBI so
working backwards from that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-13
00:52:01.744 --> 00:52:06.718
that's why this particular model
is used for the whole workflow

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8716-14
00:52:06.718 --> 00:52:08.040
to come together.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8761-0
00:52:08.850 --> 00:52:13.097
But if you have these different
pieces and and you have a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8761-1
00:52:13.097 --> 00:52:17.784
better, a better framework for
the for the soil to faction kind

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8761-2
00:52:17.784 --> 00:52:22.325
of calculation, then that would
be great to to to plug in and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8761-3
00:52:22.325 --> 00:52:23.790
run well using that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8772-0
00:52:27.220 --> 00:52:28.130
And a question for you.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8777-0
00:52:28.140 --> 00:52:29.390
I really liked your talk.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8780-0
00:52:29.400 --> 00:52:29.690
It was.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8783-0
00:52:29.700 --> 00:52:30.280
It was great.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8822-0
00:52:32.160 --> 00:52:36.853
Expanding on the last question a
little bit, I've I'm wondering

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8822-1
00:52:36.853 --> 00:52:41.400
if you've thought about running
this type of analysis in in a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8822-2
00:52:41.400 --> 00:52:44.700
place where it is currently
being developed.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8851-0
00:52:44.710 --> 00:52:48.238
Like I'm thinking about, for
example, Treasure Island, it's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8851-1
00:52:48.238 --> 00:52:51.944
all Phil, but they're rapidly
building apartment complexes and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8851-2
00:52:51.944 --> 00:52:53.650
houses to repurpose the land.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8856-0
00:52:53.660 --> 00:52:55.070
It'll probably liquify.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8879-0
00:52:55.440 --> 00:52:58.216
This is a broad conjecture, but
maybe more so than Alameda

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8879-1
00:52:58.216 --> 00:53:00.570
because it's all filled in the
middle of the day.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8915-0
00:53:00.880 --> 00:53:05.300
What would you need to conduct a
similar analysis aside from CPT

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8915-1
00:53:05.300 --> 00:53:09.516
test and then maybe hand your
results over to the engineering

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8915-2
00:53:09.516 --> 00:53:12.780
firms to like appropriately
design for housing?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8934-0
00:53:14.860 --> 00:53:17.049
Limitations and things like is
that is that something you've

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8934-1
00:53:17.049 --> 00:53:17.660
thought about it?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8958-0
00:53:19.150 --> 00:53:22.804
Umm yeah, so so I'm I'm very
interested in how kind of this

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8958-1
00:53:22.804 --> 00:53:25.240
can be applied in that sort of
context.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8962-0
00:53:25.590 --> 00:53:26.080
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8977-0
00:53:26.470 --> 00:53:30.064
And definitely like you
mentioned that the CVT data is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8977-1
00:53:30.064 --> 00:53:32.090
is one of the main constraints.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8999-0
00:53:34.290 --> 00:53:39.364
And I think that it would be a
question of what, what metric is

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/8999-1
00:53:39.364 --> 00:53:41.030
informative for them.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9047-0
00:53:41.350 --> 00:53:46.176
So if they're interested in OK
as a as a meaningful metric to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9047-1
00:53:46.176 --> 00:53:51.079
to inform their development or
if and and it's very easy to go

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9047-2
00:53:51.079 --> 00:53:54.738
LPI to to probability of
liquefaction or these

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9047-3
00:53:54.738 --> 00:53:56.840
frequencies and rates, but.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9080-0
00:53:57.670 --> 00:54:01.643
Umm, as well as the loss, as
long as so in this case the the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9080-1
00:54:01.643 --> 00:54:05.617
loss function is kind of the
limiting factor because there's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9080-2
00:54:05.617 --> 00:54:06.920
one for residential.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9099-0
00:54:06.930 --> 00:54:11.114
But if you're thinking of like a
tall, tall high rise, then that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9099-1
00:54:11.114 --> 00:54:12.660
wouldn't apply the same.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9113-0
00:54:12.670 --> 00:54:16.000
So yeah, that would be probably
the main thing I would need.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9115-0
00:54:16.230 --> 00:54:16.780
Gotcha.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9117-0
00:54:17.110 --> 00:54:17.380
Cool.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9120-0
00:54:17.390 --> 00:54:17.630
Thanks.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9128-0
00:54:19.090 --> 00:54:20.260
Other questions in the room?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9130-0
00:54:20.330 --> 00:54:20.690
I'll talk.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9132-0
00:54:20.700 --> 00:54:20.900
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9135-0
00:54:20.910 --> 00:54:21.550
Talk, Tom.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9139-0
00:54:22.470 --> 00:54:23.030
Yeah, I will.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9192-0
00:54:24.860 --> 00:54:30.338
It's interesting in the problem
of who's going to pay for this,

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9192-1
00:54:30.338 --> 00:54:35.645
and I think at one point you
seem to think that Windows would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9192-2
00:54:35.645 --> 00:54:41.124
be putting up part of the money
to to be build housing and that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9192-3
00:54:41.124 --> 00:54:43.350
that kitchen you problems.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9207-0
00:54:43.630 --> 00:54:49.550
How much is damage fixable
versus how much is total?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9218-0
00:54:51.670 --> 00:54:57.140
A good boss and also time to fix
it.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9250-0
00:54:59.340 --> 00:55:05.252
Because that takes years and and
the better can't wait years, let

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9250-1
00:55:05.252 --> 00:55:10.180
alone put in money into
something really ready to use.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9262-0
00:55:10.730 --> 00:55:12.650
So it was I.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9289-0
00:55:12.730 --> 00:55:17.421
In that case, it's starting on
the whole economic issues and

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9289-1
00:55:17.421 --> 00:55:22.035
having thought about this stuff
and I and I know that's not

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9289-2
00:55:22.035 --> 00:55:23.420
true, she refused.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9299-0
00:55:23.430 --> 00:55:25.460
This is all of that where I hope
it's not.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9308-0
00:55:27.950 --> 00:55:30.780
It is take 450 years.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9326-0
00:55:31.070 --> 00:55:37.260
You could you give us a little
feel for, I mean, on renters.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9333-0
00:55:37.270 --> 00:55:38.980
Did people really think renters?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9339-0
00:55:38.990 --> 00:55:39.820
So that put up money.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9349-0
00:55:41.190 --> 00:55:43.340
Umm, so that's a great question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9355-0
00:55:43.430 --> 00:55:45.360
Yeah, you don't have a home
anymore.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9358-0
00:55:46.610 --> 00:55:47.100
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9384-0
00:55:47.210 --> 00:55:53.315
So yeah, so so in the case of
renter buildings, we simulate

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9384-1
00:55:53.315 --> 00:55:58.504
the but the owner like the
tenant, the tenant, the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9384-2
00:55:58.504 --> 00:55:59.420
landlord.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9403-0
00:56:01.030 --> 00:56:04.557
So the landlord would be the one
that's repairing structural

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9403-1
00:56:04.557 --> 00:56:05.020
damages.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9420-0
00:56:05.950 --> 00:56:09.506
And for renters, like their
insurance is typically just for

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9420-1
00:56:09.506 --> 00:56:10.040
contents.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9455-0
00:56:10.790 --> 00:56:14.051
And and this we don't consider
contents damage, so it would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9455-1
00:56:14.051 --> 00:56:17.040
still be the owner of the
building, but it's different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9455-2
00:56:17.040 --> 00:56:19.160
because they're not an owner
occupant.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9467-0
00:56:19.890 --> 00:56:24.060
So they're repairing that as as
like their business.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9486-0
00:56:24.350 --> 00:56:28.444
And so that causes them to have
different, umm, different

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9486-1
00:56:28.444 --> 00:56:32.750
funding that they can get and
then also a different process.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9529-0
00:56:32.760 --> 00:56:36.724
So if one landlord owns multiple
buildings, then they can't get

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9529-1
00:56:36.724 --> 00:56:40.441
the same funding for every
building, so they may be able to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9529-2
00:56:40.441 --> 00:56:44.282
get part of the funding, but
some of the rental buildings but

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9529-3
00:56:44.282 --> 00:56:44.840
still be.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9542-0
00:56:46.410 --> 00:56:47.650
Be unable to be repaired.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9559-0
00:56:48.720 --> 00:56:53.693
Do you have any idea how long
for one of your scenarios at 7

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9559-1
00:56:53.693 --> 00:56:54.020
1/2?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9592-0
00:56:55.740 --> 00:57:02.083
It was in so much with the
you're living the idea how long

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9592-1
00:57:02.083 --> 00:57:07.890
it would take to redo that and
what it is today. Umm.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9599-0
00:57:09.940 --> 00:57:12.350
So that's a good question.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9610-0
00:57:12.360 --> 00:57:12.690
So.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9631-0
00:57:12.700 --> 00:57:17.853
So the hazard recovery model in
this this paper is is just for

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9631-1
00:57:17.853 --> 00:57:23.170
earthquake and then the separate
results were from liquefaction.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9676-0
00:57:23.420 --> 00:57:28.646
So the results in this paper, I
don't remember the exact

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9676-1
00:57:28.646 --> 00:57:33.965
timeline, but we do have
recovery times for the buildings

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9676-2
00:57:33.965 --> 00:57:39.100
on Alameda from simulations of a
7.0 on on the Hayward.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9697-0
00:57:39.580 --> 00:57:43.287
And so that, yeah, that's that's
definitely in the years that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9697-1
00:57:43.287 --> 00:57:45.740
goes everything out to four
years or so.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9700-0
00:57:45.750 --> 00:57:46.770
And some of the scenarios.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9750-0
00:57:49.090 --> 00:57:52.727
And that's in a case where
that's another metric that we

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9750-1
00:57:52.727 --> 00:57:56.428
can get out of the house and
recovery model is to see not

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9750-2
00:57:56.428 --> 00:58:00.130
only the funding, but it takes
time to obtain the funding

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9750-3
00:58:00.130 --> 00:58:02.300
depending on the sources as
well.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9785-0
00:58:02.470 --> 00:58:07.251
And then it takes time to repair
after getting funds and and that

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9785-1
00:58:07.251 --> 00:58:11.816
depends on how many contractor
crews are going to be available

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9785-2
00:58:11.816 --> 00:58:13.990
to work on houses in parallel.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9788-0
00:58:14.740 --> 00:58:15.150
Umm.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9794-0
00:58:15.740 --> 00:58:18.940
And and so that's.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9814-0
00:58:18.950 --> 00:58:22.380
Yeah, that's all included in in
this hazard recovery model.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9824-0
00:58:22.390 --> 00:58:27.053
But but I don't have a sense
with the liquefaction case of of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9824-1
00:58:27.053 --> 00:58:27.730
the time.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9828-0
00:58:30.940 --> 00:58:31.270
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9839-0
00:58:31.580 --> 00:58:34.950
Would it even be repairable like
usable again? Right?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9850-0
00:58:34.960 --> 00:58:37.010
Because sometimes, like in
Christchurch, they didn't.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9857-0
00:58:37.020 --> 00:58:38.170
Maybe gonna end at all.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9860-0
00:58:38.480 --> 00:58:38.690
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9866-0
00:58:38.950 --> 00:58:40.120
Uh, they Anne.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9868-0
00:58:40.130 --> 00:58:40.890
Could you speak?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9870-0
00:58:41.460 --> 00:58:41.930
Sorry.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9876-0
00:58:41.940 --> 00:58:42.550
Yeah, I said.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9883-0
00:58:42.560 --> 00:58:43.170
My mask.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9921-0
00:58:44.900 --> 00:58:47.773
I think that this could take a
lot of time to figure out the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9921-1
00:58:47.773 --> 00:58:50.269
permitting for the the
rebuilding, which you may not

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9921-2
00:58:50.269 --> 00:58:52.860
have built in yet, and it was an
issue after learning.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9948-0
00:58:53.260 --> 00:58:57.787
Create it and and Christchurch
they had areas where they would

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9948-1
00:58:57.787 --> 00:59:02.530
not rebuild because the risk was
too high to going in the future.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9957-0
00:59:02.620 --> 00:59:05.380
Yeah, it would be a lot of time.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9960-0
00:59:05.390 --> 00:59:05.980
We'll go.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9967-0
00:59:06.570 --> 00:59:06.940
Yeah.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/9974-0
00:59:06.950 --> 00:59:10.240
On the on the land issues, yeah,
I think so.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10006-0
00:59:10.290 --> 00:59:13.324
I think part of with
Christchurch because they were

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10006-1
00:59:13.324 --> 00:59:16.767
hit by so many aftershocks that
they were able to see very

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10006-2
00:59:16.767 --> 00:59:19.160
quickly that this was a
repeating issue.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10059-0
00:59:19.170 --> 00:59:22.142
And I think that maybe if
there's if there's not

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10059-1
00:59:22.142 --> 00:59:26.084
aftershocks, then then it might
not be seen and the present as a

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10059-2
00:59:26.084 --> 00:59:29.845
repeating issue necessarily,
even though we know that that it

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10059-3
00:59:29.845 --> 00:59:32.150
that it would be realistically
again.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10062-0
00:59:32.160 --> 00:59:33.070
So that might be another.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10072-0
00:59:38.650 --> 00:59:40.340
Can I pick up on that
aftershock, please?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10086-0
00:59:43.460 --> 00:59:48.210
So in your source model, you
just have one rupture, right?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10109-0
00:59:48.260 --> 00:59:52.142
One big earthquake and then you
propagate that through to the

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10109-1
00:59:52.142 --> 00:59:55.900
next, uh parts of your workflow
for each simulation, right?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10129-0
00:59:56.550 --> 00:59:59.977
And like that, earthquakes can
come and sources and but it it's

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10129-1
00:59:59.977 --> 01:00:00.460
just one.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10133-0
01:00:00.830 --> 01:00:01.770
And we we know that.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10153-0
01:00:04.190 --> 01:00:06.587
Earthquakes are clustered and
and that there will be

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10153-1
01:00:06.587 --> 01:00:08.170
aftershocks after the
earthquakes.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10207-0
01:00:08.500 --> 01:00:13.207
So do you have a sense of well
first, could you include that in

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10207-1
01:00:13.207 --> 01:00:17.915
your I'm workflow to have lots
of sources that are like somehow

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10207-2
01:00:17.915 --> 01:00:22.255
temporarily and spatially
correlated and then what kind of

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10207-3
01:00:22.255 --> 01:00:26.889
impact do you think that would
have on some of your downstream

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10207-4
01:00:26.889 --> 01:00:29.170
outputs like annualized losses?

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10214-0
01:00:30.440 --> 01:00:32.550
Yeah, that's a great point.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10267-0
01:00:32.560 --> 01:00:36.441
Yeah, after shocks are not are
not included in this and I think

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10267-1
01:00:36.441 --> 01:00:39.838
that the biggest thing from umm
from the whole workflow

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10267-2
01:00:39.838 --> 01:00:43.477
perspective like from the risk
perspective is that we don't

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10267-3
01:00:43.477 --> 01:00:47.177
really have good data on what
the additional damage is going

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10267-4
01:00:47.177 --> 01:00:48.330
to be to buildings.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10281-0
01:00:49.610 --> 01:00:54.418
So if you know a building
already has damage and Ben has

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10281-1
01:00:54.418 --> 01:00:54.840
more.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10358-0
01:00:57.330 --> 01:01:01.925
We don't have necessarily a good
enough understanding or enough

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10358-1
01:01:01.925 --> 01:01:06.521
data on on that to then see how
much higher the damage would be

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10358-2
01:01:06.521 --> 01:01:10.901
and and a lot of them do if if
they already have high damage

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10358-3
01:01:10.901 --> 01:01:15.496
then we know that depending on
the time, like if it, if it's if

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10358-4
01:01:15.496 --> 01:01:19.804
it soon after another they're
trying already starting to to

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10358-5
01:01:19.804 --> 01:01:21.600
build something new then.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10384-0
01:01:23.720 --> 01:01:26.486
If there's already complete
damaged then it then it doesn't

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10384-1
01:01:26.486 --> 01:01:28.700
make a difference, but it would
be interesting.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10386-0
01:01:28.750 --> 01:01:29.200
I just.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10392-0
01:01:29.210 --> 01:01:29.820
Yeah, I don't.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10410-0
01:01:29.830 --> 01:01:33.932
I don't don't have the the data
for that loss story seems like

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10410-1
01:01:33.932 --> 01:01:35.560
an exciting research gap.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10419-0
01:01:38.150 --> 01:01:39.580
That is so self serving.

be9aacf8-b4a4-40ad-9539-2c7f34c2aa5f/10433-0
01:01:42.950 --> 01:01:46.840
With that, let's thank Emily one
last time for a great talk.