WEBVTT

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[noise]

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All right. Here we go.

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Thank you all for attending the
Earthquake Science Center Weekly

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Seminar Series.

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If you are new, welcome.

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If you would like to be added to
our email distribution group,

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00:00:18.831 --> 00:00:19.826
please send us an email.

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Seminars are recorded and mostly
all talks are posted on the USGS

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Earthquakes Science Center web
page.

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Closed captioning can be turned
on by clicking on the CC icon on

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00:00:29.429 --> 00:00:31.366
the more tab at the top of the
page.

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Attendees, please mute your mics
and turn off your cameras until

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00:00:33.576 --> 00:00:33.866
[noise]

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the Q&A session at the end
of the talk. Submit your

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00:00:38.133 --> 00:00:41.166
questions via the chat at
anytime or wait to turn on your

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00:00:41.166 --> 00:00:44.146
camera and ask your question
during the Q&A session.

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So announcements for this week. September is National

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Preparedness Month.

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Are you prepared? 

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00:00:53.946 --> 00:00:57.539
Are you ready for any disaster
or emergency you can take

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control and not one, not two,
but three easy steps.

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Assess your needs for everyone
in your home.

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Don't forget your pets. Number 2, make a
plan once you assess your needs.

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Plan what you need to do where
you would go and what you need

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to bring if a disaster occurred
and finally step #3 and engage

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your support network.

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Get to know your neighbors like
family and friends 

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they can provide emotional and
practical support in times like

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these.

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There will be no seminar next
week because next week is

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SCEC.

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Folks may either still be in
Palm Springs, or we'll have

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arrived late that night.

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So we are skipping next week.

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Everybody should save the
date for September 28th at 6:00

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PM our very own Ole Kaven will
present the public lecture

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00:01:47.364 --> 00:01:50.724
titled "Geothermal Energy
Research within the USGS: 

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Goldilocks to electricity 
with

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earthquakes in between."

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Google the link for the USGS
public lecture or use the link

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00:02:00.206 --> 00:02:00.846
in the chat. https://www.usgs.gov/public-lecture-series

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Umm.

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And finally, we are looking for
a speaker for September 20th

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after SCEC, so if anybody has
any nominations or has seen a

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great talk recently, we are very
excited to solicit additional

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folks.

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With that, I'd like to turn it
over to Justin, who's going to

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introduce our speaker Ryley
today.

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Thanks, Curtis for the
informative introduction.

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So it's my pleasure to introduce
today's speaker, Ryley Hill.

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Riley is finishing up his PhD in
the joint program of San Diego

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State and Scripps where he's
been working on what we'll be

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hearing about today, as well as
a lot of numerical modeling and

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induce seismicity problems.

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Doing some really interesting
stuff.

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Uh.

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Originally, though, Ryley was
actually a math and physics

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student.

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He did his Bachelors in math and
physics at University of Nevada,

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Reno and actually did an IRIS
internship and discovered that

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he liked earth science and
geophysics and came to the dark

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side.

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Uh.

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And so he did a master's in
geophysics at UNR as well.

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So today's gonna be talking
about some of his recently

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published research.

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It came out in Nature, I believe
in June caused a little bit of a

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hubbub.

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Uh, looking at relationship
between southern San Andreas

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earthquakes and the filling.

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Uh.

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Uh, Lake Cahuilla down in Southern
California, so take it away.

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[noise]

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Thank you.

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Thank you guys so much for
having me.

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This is a truly a great honor, so
thank you so much.

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So I wanted to also just touch
on a few little points about me

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as well.

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I've been working on this work
that I want to share with you

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00:03:48.902 --> 00:03:49.176
today.

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Uh. I've also been really
interested in induced seismicity,

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seismic hazard mitigation, 

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sort of things and optimization
problems with this in mind.

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00:04:00.316 --> 00:04:02.836
Really excited about the future
of carbon sequestration.

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00:04:03.506 --> 00:04:06.076
Looking forward to hopefully
working with Ole in the future.

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I'm also super excited about
machine deep learning types

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things and because of climate
change, I've recently been

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getting into hydrology and
hydrogeodesy problems as well.

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Umm.

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And this picture right here is 
me on Painted Canyon.

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If anyone is familiar with the
Salton Trough area.

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Overlooking the Salton Trough.
and you can see I'm pointing

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actually not at the lake, the
current remnant of Lake Chaquilla.

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The reason being my partner 

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that I took with me up to
this hike?

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I asked her if I was pointing at
the lake and she said yeah, it

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looks good.

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Looks good, but it was not good.

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I was

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It was really hot that day and we
wanted to get down from the

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00:04:48.115 --> 00:04:51.126
mountain, so that's 
what I'm left with.

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So there's a little road map of
what we're gonna be talking

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about.

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I'm gonna do a little motivation
introduction about the problem.

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Some background on portal
elasticity which reveals some

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00:05:02.543 --> 00:05:06.916
really interesting concepts that
will help explain that sort of

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00:05:06.916 --> 00:05:10.674
model results, and then I'm
going to have some sort of

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conclusion and implications of
the work for the future of sort

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of hydrologic loads in general.

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00:05:18.316 --> 00:05:22.382
So it's no surprise that one of
the most intriguing faults in

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all of California is the San
Andreas Fault.

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00:05:25.316 --> 00:05:28.626
And particularly the southern
San Andreas Fault.

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00:05:29.416 --> 00:05:32.439
And that's because it poses the
largest seismic hazard in

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00:05:32.439 --> 00:05:33.316
all of California.

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00:05:34.096 --> 00:05:37.697
Umm, this picture
right here is a model run, a

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00:05:37.697 --> 00:05:41.298
simulation run of a large 
event on the southern San

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00:05:41.298 --> 00:05:44.773
Andreas Fault, with the
northward propagating rupture,

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00:05:44.773 --> 00:05:48.437
and this is a peak ground
velocity map and you can see in

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00:05:48.437 --> 00:05:51.406
Los Angeles it's gonna be experiencing a
lot of damage.

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00:05:51.416 --> 00:05:52.786
It's sort of like a bathtub.

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The energy will swish around
back and forth. This fault

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00:05:57.529 --> 00:06:01.867
has also been studied
geodetically and it is suggested

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00:06:01.867 --> 00:06:06.442
that this fault is
locked and loaded, as Yuri Fiasco

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00:06:06.442 --> 00:06:08.256
likes to say sometimes.

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00:06:09.146 --> 00:06:14.312
So understanding this fault's
history and what it means to the

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00:06:14.312 --> 00:06:16.936
future is critically important.

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00:06:17.596 --> 00:06:21.496
And so Belle Philibosian at the
USGS had a really great paper

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00:06:21.496 --> 00:06:25.204
looking at the Paleoseismic
history of this fault, and it

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00:06:25.204 --> 00:06:28.784
was done at the Coachella site
here to the north on the

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00:06:28.784 --> 00:06:30.126
southern San Andreas.

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00:06:30.136 --> 00:06:31.706
I hope you can see my cursor,
hopefully.

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00:06:31.816 --> 00:06:33.776
It's a little lagged.

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00:06:33.826 --> 00:06:35.316
OK, that's alright.

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00:06:35.596 --> 00:06:39.980
This earthquake history
is really interesting when we

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1326-1
00:06:39.980 --> 00:06:41.606
look at in more detail.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1343-0
00:06:41.996 --> 00:06:45.329
So these are what's called
probability density functions of

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00:06:45.329 --> 00:06:46.606
the earthquake timings.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1370-0
00:06:46.696 --> 00:06:51.456
And since about 1,000 years ago,
the earthquakes occurred pretty

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00:06:51.456 --> 00:06:53.836
much every 180 years ± 40 years.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1393-0
00:06:54.676 --> 00:06:58.362
But currently we sit on a 300
year open interval and that has

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1393-1
00:06:58.362 --> 00:07:01.036
left a lot of people scratching
their heads.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1398-0
00:07:01.046 --> 00:07:01.866
You know, why is that?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1407-0
00:07:01.876 --> 00:07:03.526
Why are we sitting on this
current interval?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1434-0
00:07:04.256 --> 00:07:10.365
Perhaps the answer here is
what's called ancient Lake Cahuilla. 

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1434-1
00:07:10.365 --> 00:07:14.146
Ancient Lake Cahuilla was a vast
lake 

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1501-0
00:07:14.336 --> 00:07:18.400
that was 150 to 50 kilometers in
area with a maximum lake level

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1501-1
00:07:18.400 --> 00:07:22.146
of about 100 meters. That
produces a very large load at

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1501-2
00:07:22.146 --> 00:07:25.892
the surface of the earth, and
this would periodically fill

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1501-3
00:07:25.892 --> 00:07:29.511
from the Colorado River,
changing course and filling the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1501-4
00:07:29.511 --> 00:07:33.320
Salton Trough, as opposed to
its current exit out into the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1501-5
00:07:33.320 --> 00:07:34.526
Gulf of California.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1519-0
00:07:35.146 --> 00:07:38.944
This correlation or
this potential correlation

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1519-1
00:07:38.944 --> 00:07:41.096
between earthquakes on the
fault, 

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-0
00:07:41.106 --> 00:07:45.333
the southern San Andreas Fault
and the lake has been hinted at

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-1
00:07:45.333 --> 00:07:49.560
since earliest times about the
1980s, and there's been several

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-2
00:07:49.560 --> 00:07:53.518
paleoseismic studies as well as
modeling studies that have

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-3
00:07:53.518 --> 00:07:57.409
looked at this sort of
correlation and a lot of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-4
00:07:57.409 --> 00:08:01.501
evidence suggested that there
was a weak correlation or that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-5
00:08:01.501 --> 00:08:05.661
the modeling results showed that
the stress changes were also

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1593-6
00:08:05.661 --> 00:08:05.996
weak.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1610-0
00:08:06.406 --> 00:08:08.971
But hopefully our results will
sort of change your mind and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1610-1
00:08:08.971 --> 00:08:09.826
perspective on this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1638-0
00:08:11.586 --> 00:08:16.430
Here's a picture of Tom Rockwell and I
in front of Lake 3 (on map) and you can

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1638-1
00:08:16.430 --> 00:08:19.456
see I'm clearly cheery in this
picture.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1650-0
00:08:19.466 --> 00:08:21.716
This was after I had to dig
a hole.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1666-0
00:08:21.726 --> 00:08:24.427
Oh sorry, this was before I had
to dig a hole all day looking

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1666-1
00:08:24.427 --> 00:08:24.906
for carbon 

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1702-0
00:08:25.126 --> 00:08:28.491
samples in the 
ground. He was pretty smart

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1702-1
00:08:28.491 --> 00:08:32.204
to take that picture beforehand,
and that was probably the 

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1702-2
00:08:32.204 --> 00:08:35.162
last time I was out there
because I'm definitely a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1702-3
00:08:35.162 --> 00:08:35.916
computer guy.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1714-0
00:08:35.926 --> 00:08:38.616
So this is rare picture of me in
the field.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1728-0
00:08:39.086 --> 00:08:43.016
So this work by Rockwell in
2022 was pretty profound.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1761-0
00:08:43.026 --> 00:08:47.696
Long story short, he had
basically three different lake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1761-1
00:08:47.696 --> 00:08:52.286
models developed based off
different sampling assumptions

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1761-2
00:08:52.286 --> 00:08:56.481
from several different
paleoseismic sites around the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1761-3
00:08:56.481 --> 00:08:56.876
Lake Chaquilla

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1828-0
00:08:56.886 --> 00:09:01.314
 inundation zone. This
put really strong constraints on

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1828-1
00:09:01.314 --> 00:09:05.333
the timing of ancient Lake
Cahuilla. The timing

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1828-2
00:09:05.333 --> 00:09:09.421
of ancient lakes here is very
important in the paleoseismic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1828-3
00:09:09.421 --> 00:09:13.576
studies because the timing of
the lakes inform the timing of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1828-4
00:09:13.576 --> 00:09:17.391
the earthquakes and especially
when you reinterpret the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1828-5
00:09:17.391 --> 00:09:18.276
stratigraphy.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1837-0
00:09:18.326 --> 00:09:20.816
And this is, I'm not gonna shy
away from it is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1860-0
00:09:20.826 --> 00:09:25.058
one of the, probably the
most controversial aspects of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1860-1
00:09:25.058 --> 00:09:28.020
this work is the
reinterpretations of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1860-2
00:09:28.020 --> 00:09:28.936
stratigraphy.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1872-0
00:09:28.946 --> 00:09:31.396
So I wanna spend a little bit of time
talking about this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1888-0
00:09:31.716 --> 00:09:36.776
This is a picture, by the way of
the Aux Cal model that we use.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1910-0
00:09:36.786 --> 00:09:42.356
This is a six page Aux Cal output, so
this is just a subsample of it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1948-0
00:09:42.366 --> 00:09:46.725
Where earthquake horizons
lie is mostly unchanged from

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1948-1
00:09:46.725 --> 00:09:50.873
Belle Philibosian's work, and the main
difference here actually is that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1948-2
00:09:50.873 --> 00:09:54.880
six of the past seven earthquake
horizons lie within the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/1948-3
00:09:54.880 --> 00:09:56.286
 lacustrine sediments.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2002-0
00:09:56.566 --> 00:09:59.702
Lacustrine sediments are lake
sediments and the main

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2002-1
00:09:59.702 --> 00:10:03.478
difference here is that the
earthquake ages are the timing

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2002-2
00:10:03.478 --> 00:10:06.997
of them are a result of
reclassifying the sediments as

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2002-3
00:10:06.997 --> 00:10:11.093
the lacustrine and assuming that
all of the organic material came

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2002-4
00:10:11.093 --> 00:10:12.436
from within the lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2021-0
00:10:12.526 --> 00:10:15.647
So you go out there and you look
around and there's really no

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2021-1
00:10:15.647 --> 00:10:17.056
organic material they found.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2026-0
00:10:17.066 --> 00:10:17.836
It's a desert, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2075-0
00:10:17.926 --> 00:10:22.442
So Tom is pretty convinced that
a lot of the organic material

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2075-1
00:10:22.442 --> 00:10:26.666
came from when the lake was
actually existing and then it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2075-2
00:10:26.666 --> 00:10:31.182
washed up on the shoreline and
you know, bell and him were in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2075-3
00:10:31.182 --> 00:10:35.406
personal communication and he's
a coauthor on this study.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2095-0
00:10:35.476 --> 00:10:40.181
So I like to say this is nothing
to do with my part of the job,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2095-1
00:10:40.181 --> 00:10:40.916
but it is.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2123-0
00:10:41.246 --> 00:10:44.510
Important to really understand
this, so we can talk about this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2123-1
00:10:44.510 --> 00:10:47.566
in more detail afterwards if
people are curious, but yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2172-0
00:10:47.676 --> 00:10:51.347
So when you take the lake ages
and combine this with the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2172-1
00:10:51.347 --> 00:10:55.340
stratigraphy of the earthquake
timings, you get it very clear

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2172-2
00:10:55.340 --> 00:10:59.462
and obvious correlation between
the late timings, which are the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2172-3
00:10:59.462 --> 00:11:03.133
light blue polygons and the
earthquake timings which are

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2172-4
00:11:03.133 --> 00:11:04.356
these colored PDFs.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2214-0
00:11:04.646 --> 00:11:08.446
This correlation is
pretty profound when you look at

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2214-1
00:11:08.446 --> 00:11:12.373
it on this figure and these data
sets again are not, you know

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2214-2
00:11:12.373 --> 00:11:16.553
dependent from another, I'm sorry,
they're not independent, they're

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2214-3
00:11:16.553 --> 00:11:18.706
dependent on one
another.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2228-0
00:11:19.076 --> 00:11:24.048
And this correlation alone is
not enough, though, to suggest a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2228-1
00:11:24.048 --> 00:11:25.626
causal relationship.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2271-0
00:11:25.676 --> 00:11:30.751
And the reason here is that,
the modeling efforts previously

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2271-1
00:11:30.751 --> 00:11:34.890
done by Luttrell and 


48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2271-2
00:11:34.890 --> 00:11:39.808
others suggested a a pretty weak
forcing by the lake on the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2271-3
00:11:39.808 --> 00:11:41.916
southern San Andreas Fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2297-0
00:11:42.106 --> 00:11:45.874
And the reasons that is and I'll
explain in more detail are

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2297-1
00:11:45.874 --> 00:11:49.076
assumptions in the model of they
use of the Earth.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2336-0
00:11:49.166 --> 00:11:52.709
It's mostly elastic and it
doesn't involve fully coupled

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2336-1
00:11:52.709 --> 00:11:56.563
portal, elastic theory, a fault
damage them on the fault, and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2336-2
00:11:56.563 --> 00:11:59.981
dipping fault and all those
things contribute to a CFS

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2336-3
00:11:59.981 --> 00:12:00.416
change.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2349-0
00:12:00.426 --> 00:12:03.174
It's cool and failure stress
changes that contribute to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2349-1
00:12:03.174 --> 00:12:03.566
failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2366-0
00:12:05.076 --> 00:12:07.702
So before we get into that,
let's just pose a sort of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2366-1
00:12:07.702 --> 00:12:08.966
hypothetical model, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-0
00:12:09.026 --> 00:12:13.370
If we assume that the southern
San Andreas Fault has some sort

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-1
00:12:13.370 --> 00:12:17.645
of critical shear stress that,
when reached, will cause it to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-2
00:12:17.645 --> 00:12:21.782
fail, then perhaps because of
the tectonic loading bringing

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-3
00:12:21.782 --> 00:12:25.988
in, umm, a a stress equivalent
to 18 millimeters per year of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-4
00:12:25.988 --> 00:12:29.986
slip, then the lake might
effectively modulate that cycle

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-5
00:12:29.986 --> 00:12:34.399
and contribute to enough stress,
triggering an event, and might

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2440-6
00:12:34.399 --> 00:12:35.226
explain why.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2447-0
00:12:35.426 --> 00:12:38.686
Since 1725, the last time of a
lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2467-0
00:12:38.936 --> 00:12:43.117
Why we haven't also had an
earthquake on the southern San

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2467-1
00:12:43.117 --> 00:12:44.846
Andreas Fault currently.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2500-0
00:12:46.256 --> 00:12:49.981
So before we get into there, I
want to talk about some of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2500-1
00:12:49.981 --> 00:12:53.765
poroelastic theory involved here
and those books written about

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2500-2
00:12:53.765 --> 00:12:54.966
four elastic theory.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2506-0
00:12:55.956 --> 00:12:57.266
And I'm gonna try to synthesize
it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2518-0
00:12:57.276 --> 00:12:59.146
Sort of down into 33 slides.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2532-0
00:12:59.356 --> 00:13:03.763
So let me look so everyone
should be familiar with more

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2532-1
00:13:03.763 --> 00:13:04.786
Klum failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2584-0
00:13:05.596 --> 00:13:09.502
It's one of our classic things
that we learn in geology and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2584-1
00:13:09.502 --> 00:13:13.407
this is a uh, just a quick
refresher that you know, there's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2584-2
00:13:13.407 --> 00:13:17.313
some sort of critical shear
stress, this red line that when

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2584-3
00:13:17.313 --> 00:13:20.046
reached by a fault will cause it
to fail.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2606-0
00:13:20.356 --> 00:13:24.284
That's sort of the theory and
the size of this circle will

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2606-1
00:13:24.284 --> 00:13:27.346
actually change due to poor
elastic stresses.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2617-0
00:13:27.636 --> 00:13:31.495
But most importantly here is
that increasing port pressure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2617-1
00:13:31.495 --> 00:13:32.476
always reduces.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2619-0
00:13:32.756 --> 00:13:33.006
Uh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2622-0
00:13:33.496 --> 00:13:33.736
Uh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2643-0
00:13:34.076 --> 00:13:38.527
A fault stability and promotes
failure, so this concept of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2643-1
00:13:38.527 --> 00:13:41.846
cooling failure stress is really
important.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2674-0
00:13:41.856 --> 00:13:45.896
As I'll be talking about it and
have slides about the model

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2674-1
00:13:45.896 --> 00:13:49.599
results using it, so the
poroelastic theory splitting,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2674-2
00:13:49.599 --> 00:13:52.696
I'm gonna split up into sort of
two concepts.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2682-0
00:13:52.766 --> 00:13:54.146
One is the undrained response.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2711-0
00:13:54.446 --> 00:13:58.787
So if we imagined poor elastic
half space and we apply an

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2711-1
00:13:58.787 --> 00:14:03.202
instantaneous load to the
surface, this is an example of a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2711-2
00:14:03.202 --> 00:14:03.576
lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2725-0
00:14:04.146 --> 00:14:07.266
You increase compressional
stress beneath the lake,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2725-1
00:14:07.266 --> 00:14:09.426
instantaneously through the
medium.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2735-0
00:14:09.436 --> 00:14:12.056
That's what these compressive
stresses look like.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2763-0
00:14:12.686 --> 00:14:16.351
Similarly, due to the poor
elastic nature between the solid

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2763-1
00:14:16.351 --> 00:14:20.077
to fluid coupling, you increase
the poor pressure within the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2763-2
00:14:20.077 --> 00:14:21.726
grains immediately as well.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2795-0
00:14:21.946 --> 00:14:25.517
That's called the undrained
response and that happens again

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2795-1
00:14:25.517 --> 00:14:29.267
instantaneously when the lake or
any sort of surface load gets

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2795-2
00:14:29.267 --> 00:14:30.516
applied through time.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2814-0
00:14:30.526 --> 00:14:34.170
As time increases, that fluid
will diffuse out and we and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2814-1
00:14:34.170 --> 00:14:36.996
reach equilibrium throughout the
that space.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2824-0
00:14:38.906 --> 00:14:41.126
The second component is the
drained response.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2845-0
00:14:41.306 --> 00:14:45.426
The drained response is that
fluid diffusion term that, umm,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2845-1
00:14:45.426 --> 00:14:49.546
that moves the poor pressure
through the through the medium.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2867-0
00:14:49.766 --> 00:14:52.429
So when the lake is applied
instantaneously, the poor

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2867-1
00:14:52.429 --> 00:14:54.746
pressure at that surface is
pretty negligible.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2891-0
00:14:55.276 --> 00:14:58.530
Then as time progresses, that
poor pressure will diffuse down

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2891-1
00:14:58.530 --> 00:15:01.259
based off of the hydro
mechanical properties in the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2891-2
00:15:01.259 --> 00:15:01.626
medium.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2910-0
00:15:02.116 --> 00:15:05.854
Now the undrained and the
drained response combine at the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2910-1
00:15:05.854 --> 00:15:07.916
same time, and that's the whole.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2969-0
00:15:08.026 --> 00:15:10.785
That's the whole gist of poor
elastic theory that these two

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2969-1
00:15:10.785 --> 00:15:13.774
components combine, and I wanted
to include some of these slides

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2969-2
00:15:13.774 --> 00:15:16.395
about the one dimensional
solution, because anyone who's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2969-3
00:15:16.395 --> 00:15:19.246
looking to do a quick back of
the envelope calculation in any

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2969-4
00:15:19.246 --> 00:15:21.821
sort of study region from
natural or anthropogenic, can

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2969-5
00:15:21.821 --> 00:15:22.556
quickly do this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2990-0
00:15:22.606 --> 00:15:26.450
And of course, it's paying
homage to Evelyn Rolloffs here

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/2990-1
00:15:26.450 --> 00:15:29.166
at the USGS, who developed this
in 1988.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3027-0
00:15:29.176 --> 00:15:33.528
So if we imagine sort of 1
dimensional material, this sort

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3027-1
00:15:33.528 --> 00:15:37.731
of line of bricks and apply the
surface float that has a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3027-2
00:15:37.731 --> 00:15:40.976
periodic fluctuation in its on
its surface.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3037-0
00:15:42.626 --> 00:15:45.216
The general solution of it is is
given here.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3074-0
00:15:45.526 --> 00:15:49.339
The pressure at certain depth
and time is based off of what's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3074-1
00:15:49.339 --> 00:15:52.782
called the complex pressure,
which is a function of two

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3074-2
00:15:52.782 --> 00:15:56.410
components, the undrained and
the drained response that we

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3074-3
00:15:56.410 --> 00:15:57.516
just talked about.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3103-0
00:15:57.986 --> 00:16:03.589
So this component right here is
really powerful because pressure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3103-1
00:16:03.589 --> 00:16:08.761
the PS term here is it's linear
in this equation, so we can

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3103-2
00:16:08.761 --> 00:16:12.036
actually pull this pressure term
out.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3106-0
00:16:12.416 --> 00:16:12.876
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3140-0
00:16:13.336 --> 00:16:17.093
Retailer it in the frequency
domain using a Greens function

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3140-1
00:16:17.093 --> 00:16:20.662
that uses a a single point
diffusion through time at the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3140-2
00:16:20.662 --> 00:16:24.356
surface and dictate any sort of
surface load that we want.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3178-0
00:16:24.806 --> 00:16:30.108
So here's a sort of toy model of
the lake history I represented

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3178-1
00:16:30.108 --> 00:16:35.078
by a relative amplitude, and
each of these humps right here

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3178-2
00:16:35.078 --> 00:16:40.296
are are different lakes from the
previous work, by by, by Tom.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3207-0
00:16:40.646 --> 00:16:44.134
So this is sort of just saying,
you know, a step function when

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3207-1
00:16:44.134 --> 00:16:47.676
the lake was on and then it goes
to zero when the lake was off.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3257-0
00:16:47.846 --> 00:16:51.314
So we just have six step
functions now we can take this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3257-1
00:16:51.314 --> 00:16:54.843
in the frequency frequency
domain and put that back into

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3257-2
00:16:54.843 --> 00:16:58.682
the complex amplitude equation
that just showed you and split

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3257-3
00:16:58.682 --> 00:17:02.521
apart both the undrained and the
drained response beneath the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3257-4
00:17:02.521 --> 00:17:03.326
surface load.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3285-0
00:17:03.376 --> 00:17:07.479
So this would be sort of quick
thing envelope calculation of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3285-1
00:17:07.479 --> 00:17:11.850
trying to get the poor pressure
term from any sort of hydrologic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3285-2
00:17:11.850 --> 00:17:12.186
load.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3302-0
00:17:12.946 --> 00:17:16.563
So what you see here is that
poor pressure term split up

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3302-1
00:17:16.563 --> 00:17:18.086
between those two parts.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3316-0
00:17:18.596 --> 00:17:23.666
The first is this is this red of
these red humps, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3335-0
00:17:23.836 --> 00:17:28.376
And these red humps are again
they they look exactly like the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3335-1
00:17:28.376 --> 00:17:30.206
surface load of the lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3341-0
00:17:30.296 --> 00:17:32.116
And that's because it is.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3370-0
00:17:33.036 --> 00:17:36.295
No, the undrained response
right, it's that instantaneous

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3370-1
00:17:36.295 --> 00:17:39.891
load of the of the surface going
all the way through the medium

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3370-2
00:17:39.891 --> 00:17:40.846
through dev time.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3386-0
00:17:41.586 --> 00:17:44.536
And so it obviously will look
exactly like the surface load.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3416-0
00:17:45.106 --> 00:17:49.762
The second term is the blue, and
this blue is the diffusion

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3416-1
00:17:49.762 --> 00:17:54.495
aspect, which as later time
progresses starts to diffuse out

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3416-2
00:17:54.495 --> 00:17:57.676
and based off of the
diffusivity, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3430-0
00:17:57.686 --> 00:18:00.356
So this is a higher diffusivity
and this is a lower diffusivity.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3475-0
00:18:00.846 --> 00:18:04.933
The poor pressure term will sort
of get stretched out as it's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3475-1
00:18:04.933 --> 00:18:08.889
taking longer to diffuse through
time, and so both of these

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3475-2
00:18:08.889 --> 00:18:12.910
components, the undrained and
the drained response here, uh,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3475-3
00:18:12.910 --> 00:18:15.546
contribute to the poor pressure
I want.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3486-0
00:18:15.556 --> 00:18:16.646
I wanna mention two.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3503-0
00:18:16.696 --> 00:18:19.646
This gamma term is what drives
everything here to it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3529-0
00:18:20.076 --> 00:18:23.807
This gamma term, if is what's
called the loading efficiency,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3529-1
00:18:23.807 --> 00:18:27.476
and so if we set the loading
efficiency to 0 umm, then this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3529-2
00:18:27.476 --> 00:18:29.066
term would go away, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3555-0
00:18:29.076 --> 00:18:32.455
And you would only be left with
the second term, 1 -, 0 right,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3555-1
00:18:32.455 --> 00:18:35.565
and it would be just the
diffusion term going through the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3555-2
00:18:35.565 --> 00:18:35.886
model.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3591-0
00:18:36.336 --> 00:18:39.000
Now if we set gamma to be one
which is the same as

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3591-1
00:18:39.000 --> 00:18:42.396
incompressible grains and fluid,
then the diffusion term goes to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3591-2
00:18:42.396 --> 00:18:45.216
zero and you're left entirely
with just the undrained

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3591-3
00:18:45.216 --> 00:18:45.686
response.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3594-0
00:18:45.696 --> 00:18:46.226
The red.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3597-0
00:18:46.236 --> 00:18:46.906
The red humps.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3608-0
00:18:47.216 --> 00:18:50.696
OK, so and this is this is the
toy model, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3638-0
00:18:51.436 --> 00:18:55.563
We can now take this and
actually look at Lake Cahuilla

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3638-1
00:18:55.563 --> 00:19:00.204
with just just the consideration
of being directly beneath the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3638-2
00:19:00.204 --> 00:19:03.446
lake through this one
dimensional solution.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3641-0
00:19:03.456 --> 00:19:03.686
Right.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3652-0
00:19:03.696 --> 00:19:07.146
And using the Greens function to
look at the surface load.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3672-0
00:19:07.156 --> 00:19:11.534
So what you see here in black is
the pressure at the surface of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3672-1
00:19:11.534 --> 00:19:12.286
Lake Yahia.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3693-0
00:19:12.736 --> 00:19:16.489
Again, those six humps and
beneath that, at different

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3693-1
00:19:16.489 --> 00:19:20.451
depths, the pressure, the
combined undrained and drained

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3693-2
00:19:20.451 --> 00:19:21.076
response.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3725-0
00:19:21.796 --> 00:19:26.520
So these two, this figure shows
some interesting aspects right

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3725-1
00:19:26.520 --> 00:19:31.243
at really deep depths the the,
the, the pressure again behaves

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3725-2
00:19:31.243 --> 00:19:34.316
just like the undrained
response, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3737-0
00:19:34.326 --> 00:19:36.908
It looks exactly like a
rectangle and that undrained

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3737-1
00:19:36.908 --> 00:19:37.346
response.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3776-0
00:19:38.016 --> 00:19:42.090
Umm it is because it's that
instantaneous fluid dissolved

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3776-1
00:19:42.090 --> 00:19:46.023
coupling and then as time
progresses that the undrained

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3776-2
00:19:46.023 --> 00:19:50.027
responsive subsequent lakes
compounds and constructively

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3776-3
00:19:50.027 --> 00:19:52.976
with the diffusion of the
previous lakes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3796-0
00:19:53.276 --> 00:19:57.160
And that's really fascinating
here, because this means that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3796-1
00:19:57.160 --> 00:20:00.913
subsequent lakes have higher
poor pressure than a lake by

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3796-2
00:20:00.913 --> 00:20:01.366
itself.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3824-0
00:20:01.376 --> 00:20:04.506
And so modeling the full 6 lake
loading circle tells you a lot

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3824-1
00:20:04.506 --> 00:20:07.436
more about the pressure and the
stress within the problem.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3835-0
00:20:08.326 --> 00:20:11.696
Additionally, this is a little
hint for the future.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3857-0
00:20:11.706 --> 00:20:15.659
Is this, uh, finite element
result is in green and this is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3857-1
00:20:15.659 --> 00:20:17.736
at a depth of seven kilometers?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3889-0
00:20:17.816 --> 00:20:23.447
This you'll notice that that
poor pressure, you know, plot is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3889-1
00:20:23.447 --> 00:20:29.259
between one to three kilometers
results from the the analytical

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3889-2
00:20:29.259 --> 00:20:30.076
solution.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3914-0
00:20:30.206 --> 00:20:33.034
So at a much greater depth,
we're experiencing poor pressure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3914-1
00:20:33.034 --> 00:20:35.676
stress that should be associated
with a shallower depth.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3930-0
00:20:35.826 --> 00:20:39.437
And the reasons are are gonna be
related to the fault damage zone

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3930-1
00:20:39.437 --> 00:20:41.516
and the geometry of the fault
itself.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3948-0
00:20:42.846 --> 00:20:46.426
OK, now let's talk about the
actual model.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3952-0
00:20:46.436 --> 00:20:48.477
Now that we have a good
background of the poor elastic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/3952-1
00:20:48.477 --> 00:20:48.736
theory.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4018-0
00:20:51.836 --> 00:20:56.731
So this model was developed in
Abacus which if anyone knows

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4018-1
00:20:56.731 --> 00:21:01.707
that software is very, very
difficult to work with and I had

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4018-2
00:21:01.707 --> 00:21:06.764
to learn it from the ground up,
which was not umm, wasn't was

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4018-3
00:21:06.764 --> 00:21:11.985
not fun, but uh, you know, it's
good to get it, you know, on in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4018-4
00:21:11.985 --> 00:21:15.166
the report, in the pocket or
whatever.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4021-0
00:21:15.176 --> 00:21:16.056
Now umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4031-0
00:21:16.536 --> 00:21:18.146
But hopefully never have to do
it again.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4037-0
00:21:18.156 --> 00:21:19.496
But the models are made.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4039-0
00:21:20.316 --> 00:21:20.576
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4051-0
00:21:20.586 --> 00:21:22.706
Sorry, I'm just like trying to
just completely forget about it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4061-0
00:21:23.376 --> 00:21:24.966
So this is the model to main.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4099-0
00:21:25.556 --> 00:21:30.218
It's 600 kilometers by 600
kilometers with a 50 kilometer

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4099-1
00:21:30.218 --> 00:21:35.282
depth, and it has over 2,000,000
tetrahedron elements, and the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4099-2
00:21:35.282 --> 00:21:40.425
only reason that we could even
get a model like this to run and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4099-3
00:21:40.425 --> 00:21:40.666
to.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4125-0
00:21:42.896 --> 00:21:46.950
Uh, you know, express the stress
distribution through the through

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4125-1
00:21:46.950 --> 00:21:50.266
the crust was because of a
working with the San Jose.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4128-0
00:21:50.476 --> 00:21:50.856
Uh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4147-0
00:21:51.376 --> 00:21:55.099
A supercomputer lab who use
Abacus to to model really

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4147-1
00:21:55.099 --> 00:21:56.546
complex interactions.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4187-0
00:21:56.616 --> 00:22:00.731
So those guys I'm I'm very not
happy to have worked with and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4187-1
00:22:00.731 --> 00:22:04.980
they were really helpful helping
me move the you know HC's, so

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4187-2
00:22:04.980 --> 00:22:08.892
this uh model also has some
important initial conditions,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4187-3
00:22:08.892 --> 00:22:09.296
right.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4189-0
00:22:09.306 --> 00:22:09.606
Right.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4212-0
00:22:10.136 --> 00:22:13.414
We're not modeling the overall
stress in the in the space where

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4212-1
00:22:13.414 --> 00:22:16.436
modeling, we're modeling just
the relative stress and poor

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4212-2
00:22:16.436 --> 00:22:17.306
pressure changes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4223-0
00:22:17.396 --> 00:22:19.886
So from like a 0 equilibrium
condition.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4246-0
00:22:20.156 --> 00:22:23.248
That way we can see the relative
stress changes and we're not

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4246-1
00:22:23.248 --> 00:22:26.339
trying to incorporate any stress
from previous earthquakes or

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4246-2
00:22:26.339 --> 00:22:27.286
anything like that.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4273-0
00:22:27.716 --> 00:22:31.789
So again, we also do the entire
6 lake loading cycle and this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4273-1
00:22:31.789 --> 00:22:35.731
entire 6 like loading cycle is
based off of Rockwell's Lake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4273-2
00:22:35.731 --> 00:22:36.256
timings.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4281-0
00:22:39.976 --> 00:22:42.186
More importantly, is the fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4352-0
00:22:42.596 --> 00:22:46.883
So here's a sort of cross
section view of the fault that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4352-1
00:22:46.883 --> 00:22:51.771
we're that we're modeling in the
model and this fault has a very

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4352-2
00:22:51.771 --> 00:22:56.433
important property and that's
the dip that was constrained by

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4352-3
00:22:56.433 --> 00:23:01.322
Lindsey and Falco of 60 degrees
in this 60 degree dip you'll see

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4352-4
00:23:01.322 --> 00:23:05.909
in the results contributes to
higher cooling failure, stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4352-5
00:23:05.909 --> 00:23:06.886
on the fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4368-0
00:23:07.106 --> 00:23:10.022
And that's because you can
imagine the surface load right

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4368-1
00:23:10.022 --> 00:23:10.876
here on the lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4406-0
00:23:10.966 --> 00:23:14.223
It creates compression right
beneath, but then there's also

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4406-1
00:23:14.223 --> 00:23:17.208
extension on the outside and
with a dipping fault that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4406-2
00:23:17.208 --> 00:23:20.572
extension is pulling apart that
fault, creating it, making it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4406-3
00:23:20.572 --> 00:23:21.386
easier to slip.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4438-0
00:23:22.116 --> 00:23:25.658
So the last thing that's also
important is that we include a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4438-1
00:23:25.658 --> 00:23:29.142
fault damage zone through here
to model 5 different bearing

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4438-2
00:23:29.142 --> 00:23:31.986
permeabilities and these bearing
permeabilities.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4449-0
00:23:32.556 --> 00:23:35.726
Umm, where are are pretty
interesting to look at too.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4452-0
00:23:35.736 --> 00:23:35.996
We'll see.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4470-0
00:23:37.436 --> 00:23:40.204
So the hydrostatic graphy is
based off of previous work in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4470-1
00:23:40.204 --> 00:23:40.626
the area.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4474-0
00:23:40.706 --> 00:23:43.026
That is pretty straightforward.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4502-0
00:23:43.276 --> 00:23:48.738
There's about four layers of
elastic crust and a mantle that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4502-1
00:23:48.738 --> 00:23:52.766
we use to model the viscoelastic
properties.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4504-0
00:23:53.086 --> 00:23:54.506
The crystalline basement.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4543-0
00:23:55.356 --> 00:23:59.159
Uh is, you know, we don't do any
sort of depth dependence and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4543-1
00:23:59.159 --> 00:24:02.961
permeability if if I had done,
you know, Abacus beforehand, I

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4543-2
00:24:02.961 --> 00:24:05.536
might have been able to
incorporate that.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4565-0
00:24:05.546 --> 00:24:09.084
But a layered cake model was the
simplest way to do this, and so

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4565-1
00:24:09.084 --> 00:24:10.716
that's what we were left with.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4609-0
00:24:13.756 --> 00:24:17.251
When I, I guess I talked about
the fault damage zone

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4609-1
00:24:17.251 --> 00:24:21.471
permeabilities the we started a
very high permeable value which

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4609-2
00:24:21.471 --> 00:24:24.966
was constrained by title
analysis which was which is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4609-3
00:24:24.966 --> 00:24:28.196
pretty high considered what's
actually observed.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4632-0
00:24:28.206 --> 00:24:30.322
So we have varying
permeabilities through the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4632-1
00:24:30.322 --> 00:24:32.898
absurd, and we also have a
single model that assumes no

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4632-2
00:24:32.898 --> 00:24:33.496
fault damage.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4643-0
00:24:33.506 --> 00:24:35.716
So where it's just the same as
the crystalline basement.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4654-0
00:24:37.076 --> 00:24:38.586
So let's take a look at the
results.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4689-0
00:24:38.596 --> 00:24:43.593
We'll spend some time on this
first figure here, so this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4689-1
00:24:43.593 --> 00:24:48.853
figure right here is a post
process results from the Abacus

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4689-2
00:24:48.853 --> 00:24:53.938
model in MATLAB, but also the
Abacus model results on the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4689-3
00:24:53.938 --> 00:24:54.376
left.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4699-0
00:24:54.766 --> 00:24:57.676
So what you see here in this
first slide?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4724-0
00:24:57.686 --> 00:25:04.002
Hey, is the poor pressure of the
lake and a cross sectional view

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4724-1
00:25:04.002 --> 00:25:06.916
of us looking down at default.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4752-0
00:25:06.926 --> 00:25:11.372
And so this highlighted red area
is the plane of the fault

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4752-1
00:25:11.372 --> 00:25:14.536
itself, and we'll start here on
the left.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4761-0
00:25:14.796 --> 00:25:17.266
Just looking at the poor
pressure evolution through time.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4765-0
00:25:17.796 --> 00:25:18.366
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4788-0
00:25:18.416 --> 00:25:24.921
So it's pretty small then the OR
pressure here begins, right when

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4788-1
00:25:24.921 --> 00:25:27.286
the lake starts to load.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4815-0
00:25:27.476 --> 00:25:33.461
And as that poor pressure by the
end of the first lake resolves,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4815-1
00:25:33.461 --> 00:25:39.076
you can see through here or
pressure values along the fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4890-0
00:25:39.886 --> 00:25:43.982
Uh have increased substantially
and that's because the damage

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4890-1
00:25:43.982 --> 00:25:47.418
zone has a higher permeability
in this case and the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4890-2
00:25:47.418 --> 00:25:51.580
permeability and the the poor
pressure preferentially wants to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4890-3
00:25:51.580 --> 00:25:55.676
go to these higher permeable
zones and and we'll go down them

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4890-4
00:25:55.676 --> 00:25:59.838
as the lake as lake ends and the
desiccation of F before E the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4890-5
00:25:59.838 --> 00:26:02.546
poor pressure is still within
the model.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4896-0
00:26:02.556 --> 00:26:03.216
This is slide.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4918-0
00:26:03.226 --> 00:26:06.301
This is part C the poor pressure
exists there, like we saw from

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4918-1
00:26:06.301 --> 00:26:09.086
the diffusion in the one
dimensional analytical solution.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4953-0
00:26:09.096 --> 00:26:13.048
It hasn't fully reached
equilibrium yet, and so when the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4953-1
00:26:13.048 --> 00:26:17.070
next lake occurs, Lake E, you
get a rising power pressure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4953-2
00:26:17.070 --> 00:26:20.536
that's greater than the previous
slide by itself.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4983-0
00:26:20.816 --> 00:26:23.967
And that's because again, that
undrained response increases

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4983-1
00:26:23.967 --> 00:26:27.434
poor pressure and constructively
interferes with the diffusion of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/4983-2
00:26:27.434 --> 00:26:28.536
that that other lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5001-0
00:26:29.306 --> 00:26:33.067
Now on the side here, over here,
we can look at what that looks

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5001-1
00:26:33.067 --> 00:26:34.536
like on the fault itself.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5011-0
00:26:34.886 --> 00:26:36.566
So here's the cooling failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5020-0
00:26:36.576 --> 00:26:39.786
Stress and the three major
components to that value.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5026-0
00:26:41.096 --> 00:26:42.856
1st I'll talk about the
pressure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5050-0
00:26:42.866 --> 00:26:47.024
So the the poor pressure
increases rapidly right beneath

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5050-1
00:26:47.024 --> 00:26:51.546
the lake and will diffuse out
from the lake across the fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5077-0
00:26:51.976 --> 00:26:56.833
The poor pressure is pretty much
positive across the entire

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5077-1
00:26:56.833 --> 00:27:01.448
fault, except there's some zero
values and actually some

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5077-2
00:27:01.448 --> 00:27:04.766
negative pore pressure values,
which is.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5136-0
00:27:05.376 --> 00:27:09.867
I can explain that later, but
not super important and the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5136-1
00:27:09.867 --> 00:27:14.435
effective stress is uh really
interesting because it shows

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5136-2
00:27:14.435 --> 00:27:19.468
that the compression of the lake
right at the top of the surface

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5136-3
00:27:19.468 --> 00:27:24.346
creates areas of lower effective
stress then actually areas at

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5136-4
00:27:24.346 --> 00:27:28.526
seismogenic depth, which is
around 5 to 8 kilometers.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5156-0
00:27:28.936 --> 00:27:32.308
The reason is is that when you
apply a surface float, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5156-1
00:27:32.308 --> 00:27:34.866
create compression directly
beneath, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5192-0
00:27:34.936 --> 00:27:38.611
But again, because of the
dipping fault, you're creating

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5192-1
00:27:38.611 --> 00:27:42.350
extension farther away and so
that contributes to sort of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5192-2
00:27:42.350 --> 00:27:46.476
positive stress here, combining
with the pressure shear stress.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5208-0
00:27:46.486 --> 00:27:49.878
As is interesting, there's uh,
positive shear stress near the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5208-1
00:27:49.878 --> 00:27:51.136
the center of the lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5225-0
00:27:51.226 --> 00:27:55.094
But actually negative shoe
stress towards the middle of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5225-1
00:27:55.094 --> 00:27:55.416
lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5253-0
00:27:55.506 --> 00:27:58.153
But those values are
considerably less than the port

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5253-1
00:27:58.153 --> 00:28:01.250
pressure effect of stress, so
that your total cooling failure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5253-2
00:28:01.250 --> 00:28:04.146
stress is relatively positive
throughout the whole fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5272-0
00:28:04.466 --> 00:28:08.084
There's some areas of negative
colon failure stress, but the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5272-1
00:28:08.084 --> 00:28:10.396
highest values are again
surprisingly.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5303-0
00:28:10.986 --> 00:28:14.546
Well, maybe not surprisingly,
but at seismogenic depth between

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5303-1
00:28:14.546 --> 00:28:18.219
about five and eight meters and
start to sort of keep her off in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5303-2
00:28:18.219 --> 00:28:20.366
either direction, shallow and
deeper.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5317-0
00:28:22.956 --> 00:28:26.606
So let's look at the evolution
of the cooling failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5335-0
00:28:26.616 --> 00:28:30.506
Stress on the fault through
time, and this is a video of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5335-1
00:28:30.506 --> 00:28:31.526
cooling failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5358-0
00:28:31.536 --> 00:28:36.138
Stress you'll see here in a SEC
on the fall and on the right is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5358-1
00:28:36.138 --> 00:28:37.576
the cooling failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5367-0
00:28:37.586 --> 00:28:41.366
Stress through time at a single
point.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5391-0
00:28:41.376 --> 00:28:44.739
The point being, of course, this
this black, this black dot,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5391-1
00:28:44.739 --> 00:28:47.936
which represents the maximum
Coulomb stress on the fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5426-0
00:28:49.346 --> 00:28:53.188
So as time progresses you can
see that the the cooling failure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5426-1
00:28:53.188 --> 00:28:57.030
stress constructively interferes
with subsequent lakes, and so

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5426-2
00:28:57.030 --> 00:28:59.896
you get the second humps usually
being higher.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5457-0
00:29:03.776 --> 00:29:07.959
And these black lines represent
a ratio between the the positive

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5457-1
00:29:07.959 --> 00:29:11.434
values of cooling failure,
stress and negative values

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5457-2
00:29:11.434 --> 00:29:13.686
across the entire fault
interface.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5463-0
00:29:14.256 --> 00:29:18.396
The the Gray is anything below 7
kilometers.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5488-0
00:29:21.266 --> 00:29:24.378
So yeah, there's a lot going on
here and you'll see here at the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5488-1
00:29:24.378 --> 00:29:26.176
end, I'll play it a second time
too.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5501-0
00:29:26.246 --> 00:29:29.376
You'll start to see the
contributions of salt and sea.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5504-0
00:29:29.806 --> 00:29:32.876
The current modern remnant.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5517-0
00:29:36.506 --> 00:29:39.376
So I'll do it one more time
because we have time.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5550-0
00:29:41.326 --> 00:29:46.003
So you'll see here again the
evolution as it increases when

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5550-1
00:29:46.003 --> 00:29:50.913
the leaks are on and starts to
decrease as the cooling failure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5549-0
00:29:50.906 --> 00:29:51.476
OK, OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5550-2
00:29:50.913 --> 00:29:52.316
stress drops down.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5593-0
00:29:58.436 --> 00:30:03.608
Umm yeah, I don't think there's
anything super uh or important

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5593-1
00:30:03.608 --> 00:30:07.876
to note too is that the code
failure stress remains

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5593-2
00:30:07.876 --> 00:30:13.047
relatively positive across the
whole fault, even when there is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5593-3
00:30:13.047 --> 00:30:14.196
a like absent.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5616-0
00:30:14.966 --> 00:30:18.705
There's no like, so this is
actually very different than

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5616-1
00:30:18.705 --> 00:30:22.379
prior results, which suggests
that very strong negative

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5616-2
00:30:22.379 --> 00:30:23.756
stresses pretty much.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5630-0
00:30:24.896 --> 00:30:27.846
Uh, the whole time, and also
when the lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5633-0
00:30:27.896 --> 00:30:29.406
Uh wasn't wasn't there?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5663-0
00:30:29.516 --> 00:30:32.859
So I'm gonna pause it actually,
cause the we're it's weird that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5663-1
00:30:32.859 --> 00:30:35.941
it cuts off like this to talk
about the salt and sea for a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5663-2
00:30:35.941 --> 00:30:36.306
second.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5682-0
00:30:36.316 --> 00:30:39.466
So the current remnant rank the
Salton Sea also contributes to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5682-1
00:30:39.466 --> 00:30:40.366
the stress change.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5709-0
00:30:40.426 --> 00:30:44.357
And you know, we talked about it
a little bit more detail on the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5709-1
00:30:44.357 --> 00:30:48.106
paper, but this stress change is
is not insignificant, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5767-0
00:30:48.116 --> 00:30:51.880
It's it's greater than what's
considered sort of this basic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5767-1
00:30:51.880 --> 00:30:55.770
0.1 megapascal threshold, and
more importantly, as the Salton

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5767-2
00:30:55.770 --> 00:30:59.534
Sea continues to decline, there
is a lowering of the client

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5767-3
00:30:59.534 --> 00:31:03.675
failure, stress, and the rate is
negative, which suggests a small

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5767-4
00:31:03.675 --> 00:31:04.866
amount of clamping.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5794-0
00:31:04.956 --> 00:31:09.392
Actually, on the southern San
Andreas Fault, that might be

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5794-1
00:31:09.392 --> 00:31:13.827
actually prolonging, uh, an
earthquake, but it's to a very

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5794-2
00:31:13.827 --> 00:31:15.556
marginal degree, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5800-0
00:31:15.566 --> 00:31:18.246
Compared to the overall tectonic
stress, OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5808-0
00:31:21.346 --> 00:31:22.076
Should I get it?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5816-0
00:31:22.086 --> 00:31:23.476
I get the other for a second OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5848-0
00:31:25.516 --> 00:31:30.046
So we can actually also look now
at the cooling failure stress at

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5848-1
00:31:30.046 --> 00:31:34.232
a single point through time to
look at different sensitivity

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5848-2
00:31:34.232 --> 00:31:35.536
tests of the model.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5882-0
00:31:35.816 --> 00:31:40.211
So what I'm plotting here is, is
the is an area beneath the lake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5882-1
00:31:40.211 --> 00:31:44.066
where you saw sort of the
maximum cooling failure stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5882-2
00:31:44.066 --> 00:31:46.026
at around 7 kilometers depth.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5894-0
00:31:46.376 --> 00:31:49.146
So each of these models again
are the damage zone.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5944-0
00:31:49.156 --> 00:31:53.682
Permeabilities model one is our
highest permeable case and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5944-1
00:31:53.682 --> 00:31:58.285
you're getting uh megapascal
come stress changes about, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5944-2
00:31:58.285 --> 00:32:03.041
know, your .7 Model 5 is the
model that excludes fault damage

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5944-3
00:32:03.041 --> 00:32:06.416
zone and you're only having a
permeability.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5983-0
00:32:06.976 --> 00:32:10.299
Uh, same the same as the
material that it cuts, so the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5983-1
00:32:10.299 --> 00:32:14.285
same as the crystalline basement
and most important about this is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5983-2
00:32:14.285 --> 00:32:18.151
that the clone stress change is
positive pretty much throughout

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5983-3
00:32:18.151 --> 00:32:18.936
all the time.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5998-0
00:32:18.946 --> 00:32:21.919
There's a sometimes at which it
dips below 0 at this particular

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/5998-1
00:32:21.919 --> 00:32:22.336
location.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6000-0
00:32:23.206 --> 00:32:23.486
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6027-0
00:32:23.666 --> 00:32:26.940
And the second thing is that for
all five models, there are

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6027-1
00:32:26.940 --> 00:32:30.376
greater than that sort of 0.1
megapascal triggering threshold.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6057-0
00:32:30.446 --> 00:32:34.361
So every time there was a lake,
you're reaching stress changes

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6057-1
00:32:34.361 --> 00:32:38.275
are sufficient for triggering
and that's and that was exciting

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6057-2
00:32:38.275 --> 00:32:40.636
to see cause that was not
previously.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6082-0
00:32:43.306 --> 00:32:47.334
Uh, you know scene and the
previous models, there was some

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6082-1
00:32:47.334 --> 00:32:49.996
stress changes that contributed
to it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6106-0
00:32:50.006 --> 00:32:53.356
Could have maybe modulated
slightly, but these stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6106-1
00:32:53.356 --> 00:32:57.326
changes are are, are, are much
much larger when we look at the.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6129-0
00:32:57.396 --> 00:33:00.031
So there's also a lot of
evidence now in in induced

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6129-1
00:33:00.031 --> 00:33:02.969
seismicity that the stressing
rate also can contribute to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6129-2
00:33:02.969 --> 00:33:03.576
earthquakes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6179-0
00:33:03.586 --> 00:33:07.146
So we look at the stressing rate
of the colon failure stress as

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6179-1
00:33:07.146 --> 00:33:10.651
well and the stressing rate ends
up being increased by up to a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6179-2
00:33:10.651 --> 00:33:13.766
factor of 3 compared to the
tectonic loading during the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6179-3
00:33:13.766 --> 00:33:15.156
times of like inundation.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6199-0
00:33:15.476 --> 00:33:19.612
And what you see here is the
PDFs and how they compare with a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6199-1
00:33:19.612 --> 00:33:21.146
plus or minus Sigma to.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6259-0
00:33:22.526 --> 00:33:26.596
Uh to the to the stressing rates
and again you can see that the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6259-1
00:33:26.596 --> 00:33:30.475
stressing rates actually go
negative obviously when the lake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6259-2
00:33:30.475 --> 00:33:34.164
is declining, but it recovers
pretty quickly, but there's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6259-3
00:33:34.164 --> 00:33:38.106
there are lots of peaks here in
the in the seismicity, right,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6259-4
00:33:38.106 --> 00:33:40.586
when the when the lake gets
inundated.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6313-0
00:33:42.656 --> 00:33:47.253
Umm, we can actually take this
seismicity rate and formulate it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6313-1
00:33:47.253 --> 00:33:51.634
with the Dietrich model and the
Siegel and Lu formulation of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6313-2
00:33:51.634 --> 00:33:56.302
seismicity rate from the column
failure stress and so this is an

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6313-3
00:33:56.302 --> 00:34:00.036
example of that seismicity right
at a single point.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6348-0
00:34:00.086 --> 00:34:03.506
The Bombay area again, that,
that area, that experience is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6348-1
00:34:03.506 --> 00:34:06.984
pretty much the largest quorum
stress changes and this is a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6348-2
00:34:06.984 --> 00:34:10.056
sensitivity of this sort of
characteristic variable.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6390-0
00:34:10.626 --> 00:34:14.681
And you can see that when
there's a lake, that's Missy,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6390-1
00:34:14.681 --> 00:34:19.026
rape on increases compared to
the tectonic background rate,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6390-2
00:34:19.026 --> 00:34:23.732
which is 1 up to again like near
a factor of 3 for some of these

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6390-3
00:34:23.732 --> 00:34:24.166
lakes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6403-0
00:34:25.026 --> 00:34:28.438
But actually, if depending on
the sensitivity it could be it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6403-1
00:34:28.438 --> 00:34:29.276
could be lower.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6446-0
00:34:29.616 --> 00:34:33.772
What's really interesting here,
which is different than the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6446-1
00:34:33.772 --> 00:34:38.066
quorum failure stress rate, is
that there's a very big dip in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6446-2
00:34:38.066 --> 00:34:42.429
negative seismicity rate with
the lake right next to the other

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6446-3
00:34:42.429 --> 00:34:42.706
one.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6465-0
00:34:42.946 --> 00:34:46.394
And that's because of the the
rapid changes in the the like

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6465-1
00:34:46.394 --> 00:34:47.026
inundating.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6490-0
00:34:47.396 --> 00:34:50.958
So it's the seismicity rate, is
very, it's sort of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6490-1
00:34:50.958 --> 00:34:55.009
exponentially, there's an
exponential relationship to the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6490-2
00:34:55.009 --> 00:34:56.056
stressing rate.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6500-0
00:34:56.066 --> 00:34:58.466
So there's it's pretty sensitive
here.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6528-0
00:34:58.516 --> 00:35:03.932
So you also see negative side of
the city rates or not negative

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6528-1
00:35:03.932 --> 00:35:09.178
but lower than tectonic rates
when they're like is coming off

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6528-2
00:35:09.178 --> 00:35:09.516
umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6561-0
00:35:10.796 --> 00:35:13.851
So I've been talking about a
little bit of the sensitivity of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6561-1
00:35:13.851 --> 00:35:16.315
the model to different
parameters, which might be

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6561-2
00:35:16.315 --> 00:35:19.321
important to other people's work
and in different hydrologic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6561-3
00:35:19.321 --> 00:35:19.616
loads.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6587-0
00:35:19.626 --> 00:35:24.258
So what we found was when we
looked at the the dip, that 60

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6587-1
00:35:24.258 --> 00:35:28.273
degree dip is our preferred
model from the geodetic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6587-2
00:35:28.273 --> 00:35:29.276
observations.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6611-0
00:35:29.466 --> 00:35:32.602
But if we were to make it
shallower, we get increasing

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6611-1
00:35:32.602 --> 00:35:34.426
school and failure stress again.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-0
00:35:34.436 --> 00:35:37.854
The shallower fault will have
more of that extensional

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-1
00:35:37.854 --> 00:35:41.706
component of the Lake Rd, and
for a steeper uh, you know more

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-2
00:35:41.706 --> 00:35:45.620
vertical dipping fault, you get
lower and lower column failure

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-3
00:35:45.620 --> 00:35:49.037
stress and this is important
because prior work used a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-4
00:35:49.037 --> 00:35:52.454
complete you know vertical
fault, uh and 90 degree dip

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-5
00:35:52.454 --> 00:35:56.120
fault for their model and so
they're coming failure stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6684-6
00:35:56.120 --> 00:35:57.486
was was was was lower.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6695-0
00:35:59.056 --> 00:36:01.466
Umm we can also look at the
viscosity.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6729-0
00:36:01.476 --> 00:36:05.002
See how the viscoelastic
properties are playing here and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6729-1
00:36:05.002 --> 00:36:08.527
we found that the VISCO elastic
properties didn't really

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6729-2
00:36:08.527 --> 00:36:12.237
contribute that much change we
used as suggested from prior

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6729-3
00:36:12.237 --> 00:36:12.546
work.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6735-0
00:36:12.556 --> 00:36:14.466
A 70 year relaxation time.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6771-0
00:36:15.176 --> 00:36:18.173
But when we look at the sort of
the two different number cases,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6771-1
00:36:18.173 --> 00:36:20.935
the 20 year and the 200 year,
there's really not that much

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6771-2
00:36:20.935 --> 00:36:22.526
changes when the lake is
present.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6790-0
00:36:22.536 --> 00:36:26.384
The biggest changes occur when
you have a long period of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6790-1
00:36:26.384 --> 00:36:29.016
relaxation for the between lake
loads.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6796-0
00:36:31.846 --> 00:36:32.106
OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6823-0
00:36:32.116 --> 00:36:36.151
So and so, I'll just say some
conclusions that you know

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6823-1
00:36:36.151 --> 00:36:40.402
increases in lake level result
in positive cooling, stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6823-2
00:36:40.402 --> 00:36:40.906
change.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6833-0
00:36:41.516 --> 00:36:43.472
On the southern San Andreas
Fault, bringing it closer to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6833-1
00:36:43.472 --> 00:36:43.746
failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6853-0
00:36:43.756 --> 00:36:48.159
And these changes from our study
are likely sufficient and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6853-1
00:36:48.159 --> 00:36:50.546
greater than originally thought.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6893-0
00:36:50.806 --> 00:36:54.266
And I mean likely sufficient for
triggering the lateral diffusion

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6893-1
00:36:54.266 --> 00:36:57.359
of poor pressure along a 60
degree dipping permeable fault

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6893-2
00:36:57.359 --> 00:37:00.347
zone, and the poroelastic
effects of that sort of memory

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6893-3
00:37:00.347 --> 00:37:02.286
effect that the undrained
component.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6898-0
00:37:03.266 --> 00:37:04.316
And I've said this like
multiple.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6914-0
00:37:04.676 --> 00:37:08.761
Yeah, constructively interferes
with the diffusion, is very

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6914-1
00:37:08.761 --> 00:37:11.416
important to the the model
complexity.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6925-0
00:37:12.146 --> 00:37:14.896
Uh, and and to the Coulomb
stress changes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6960-0
00:37:15.146 --> 00:37:18.243
So our model predicts a
predominantly negative cooling

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6960-1
00:37:18.243 --> 00:37:21.733
stress change for sufficiently
long dry periods and a gradual

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6960-2
00:37:21.733 --> 00:37:25.336
decline in Cullman stress change
for the present open interval.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6985-0
00:37:25.766 --> 00:37:28.997
And as the salt and sea level
continues to decline, we also

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6985-1
00:37:28.997 --> 00:37:32.227
are experiencing some stress
change decline on the fault as

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6985-2
00:37:32.227 --> 00:37:32.496
well.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6995-0
00:37:32.546 --> 00:37:35.051
Although it's very marginal
compared to the overall tectonic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/6995-1
00:37:35.051 --> 00:37:35.256
load.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7008-0
00:37:36.276 --> 00:37:40.846
Umm, So what does this mean for
the implications of future work?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7011-0
00:37:40.856 --> 00:37:41.196
Right.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7045-0
00:37:41.316 --> 00:37:44.820
So there is a pretty famous
earthquake in China called the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7045-1
00:37:44.820 --> 00:37:48.621
Wenchuan earthquake, which has
been suggested to have triggered

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7045-2
00:37:48.621 --> 00:37:52.006
due to reservoir impoundment
from the Zipangu Reservoir.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7058-0
00:37:52.456 --> 00:37:57.811
And what's really fascinating
about this study was a couple of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7058-1
00:37:57.811 --> 00:37:58.406
things.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7105-0
00:37:58.416 --> 00:38:02.439
So compared to our work where
the Coulomb stress was certainly

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7105-1
00:38:02.439 --> 00:38:06.334
significant to trigger an event,
they found that the cooling

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7105-2
00:38:06.334 --> 00:38:10.485
failure stress at the hypocenter
of this Wenchuan earthquake was

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7105-3
00:38:10.485 --> 00:38:14.316
actually probably not sufficient
to trigger the earthquake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7105-4
00:38:14.316 --> 00:38:14.826
However.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7109-0
00:38:16.156 --> 00:38:16.686
Uh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7124-0
00:38:16.916 --> 00:38:20.529
The reservoir increased cooling
failure stress across the full

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7124-1
00:38:20.529 --> 00:38:22.306
from the surface down to depth.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7162-0
00:38:22.616 --> 00:38:27.362
So you have effectively weakened
the fault across the from the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7162-1
00:38:27.362 --> 00:38:31.355
low to shallow point of the
fall, and then they have

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7162-2
00:38:31.355 --> 00:38:35.196
suggested an another paper has
looked at the slip.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7209-0
00:38:35.206 --> 00:38:40.020
Slip of this is that potentially
a small event could have created

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7209-1
00:38:40.020 --> 00:38:44.468
a cascading of failure of the
asperities that are now weaker

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7209-2
00:38:44.468 --> 00:38:48.625
across all of the default, and
so this might actually be

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7209-3
00:38:48.625 --> 00:38:51.396
applicable to our study area as
well.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7225-0
00:38:51.586 --> 00:38:53.697
We'll have to see when the next
earthquake occurs on the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7225-1
00:38:53.697 --> 00:38:54.696
southern San Andreas Fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7235-0
00:38:54.866 --> 00:38:57.956
You know, will all of that
stress be released at once?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7242-0
00:38:58.326 --> 00:38:59.396
I mean hopefully not.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7256-0
00:38:59.406 --> 00:39:02.876
But is this stress going to be
broken up in the little bits?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7290-0
00:39:02.886 --> 00:39:05.894
I mean hopefully and maybe the
reason it doesn't happen is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7290-1
00:39:05.894 --> 00:39:08.953
because you haven't weakened a
larger portion of that fault

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7290-2
00:39:08.953 --> 00:39:11.196
with the increasing cooling
failure stress.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7347-0
00:39:11.506 --> 00:39:15.064
But this remains to be seen and
we don't really talk about that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7347-1
00:39:15.064 --> 00:39:18.288
in the paper and this is also
really important for anyone

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7347-2
00:39:18.288 --> 00:39:21.179
that's going to build a
reservoir to not, you know,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7347-3
00:39:21.179 --> 00:39:24.570
build it near, you know, an
active fault zone because you're

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7347-4
00:39:24.570 --> 00:39:28.016
going to again contribute to
failure across that whole fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7363-0
00:39:28.166 --> 00:39:32.480
So we can look at other natural
instances besides anthropogenic

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7363-1
00:39:32.480 --> 00:39:33.356
ones as well.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7371-0
00:39:33.416 --> 00:39:36.916
And the Dead Sea is also pretty
fascinating.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7414-0
00:39:37.276 --> 00:39:41.885
There's been a lot of work
recently that have suggested a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7414-1
00:39:41.885 --> 00:39:46.334
correlation between our
earthquakes and lake level rise

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7414-2
00:39:46.334 --> 00:39:50.862
on the Dead Sea, so we're
excited to see where things go

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7414-3
00:39:50.862 --> 00:39:53.166
from here and I'll I'll stop.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7418-0
00:39:53.176 --> 00:39:53.606
I'll stop there.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7430-0
00:39:54.096 --> 00:39:56.856
I'm not see any questions I
guess so thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7456-0
00:40:11.946 --> 00:40:14.612
We're getting there, but I'm
gonna turn on the camera here,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7456-1
00:40:14.612 --> 00:40:16.566
but we actually tested it on
that computer.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7463-0
00:40:18.356 --> 00:40:19.396
The IT was great.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7467-0
00:40:19.406 --> 00:40:19.636
Talk.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7472-0
00:40:19.646 --> 00:40:21.626
Really, really interesting stuff
I have.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7478-0
00:40:21.636 --> 00:40:22.816
Thanks a lot of questions.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7487-0
00:40:23.666 --> 00:40:25.686
I'll keep it to one step.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7507-0
00:40:25.746 --> 00:40:30.098
Uh, you know, obviously there's
a lot of variables here as far

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7507-1
00:40:30.098 --> 00:40:30.996
as, etcetera.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7518-0
00:40:31.606 --> 00:40:35.006
But let's say we stay in our
sort of current status.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7532-0
00:40:35.046 --> 00:40:37.196
You know, there's no refilling
at this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7546-0
00:40:37.206 --> 00:40:40.611
This paleo leg, you know,
they're assuming current

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7546-1
00:40:40.611 --> 00:40:42.146
tectonic loading rates.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7552-0
00:40:42.196 --> 00:40:43.336
Then should we expect that?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7561-0
00:40:46.586 --> 00:40:48.516
Ohh, I'm not gonna try.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7564-0
00:40:48.526 --> 00:40:48.896
I'm not.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7574-0
00:40:48.966 --> 00:40:50.536
I'm not gonna try to earn quick
thing.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7581-0
00:40:52.196 --> 00:40:53.046
That's a good question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7586-0
00:40:53.056 --> 00:40:55.776
The you know, I got it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7636-0
00:40:56.386 --> 00:41:00.047
I he the earthquake recurrence
interval if we were to just look

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7636-1
00:41:00.047 --> 00:41:03.365
at it objectively to like
poissonian distribution between

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7636-2
00:41:03.365 --> 00:41:06.797
the earthquake times the you
know we currently sit and this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7636-3
00:41:06.797 --> 00:41:10.286
is with Tom and Philippians,
both of their earthquake times.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7662-0
00:41:10.296 --> 00:41:14.701
When we look at either of them,
the you know the probability of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7662-1
00:41:14.701 --> 00:41:19.036
having an earthquake is greater
than 95% in both cases, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7671-0
00:41:19.116 --> 00:41:21.636
So this is it's locked and
loaded.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7699-0
00:41:21.926 --> 00:41:27.841
I would expect it to go at any
time soon and and if it's salty,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7699-1
00:41:27.841 --> 00:41:30.336
continues to decline again.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7711-0
00:41:30.346 --> 00:41:33.566
That's very marginal to the
overall tipped phonic load so.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7750-0
00:41:36.576 --> 00:41:41.735
So I guess following on that
question I there's a need to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7750-1
00:41:41.735 --> 00:41:47.427
speak to or is what does, what
are your results imply about the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7750-2
00:41:47.427 --> 00:41:50.806
nature of the earthquakes that
occur?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7761-0
00:41:50.816 --> 00:41:53.756
So you've got this sort of
triggering effect.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7781-0
00:41:53.766 --> 00:41:57.426
You have spike and stress, but
it's geographically localized

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7781-1
00:41:57.426 --> 00:41:59.226
compared with tectonic voting.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7814-0
00:41:59.236 --> 00:42:02.725
You have major in playground
reloading going on in the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7814-1
00:42:02.725 --> 00:42:06.594
background, so you accelerated
it and you're getting shorter

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7814-2
00:42:06.594 --> 00:42:10.526
intervals between those weights
because of that acceleration.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7824-0
00:42:10.536 --> 00:42:13.446
Or are you getting shorter
intervals?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7836-0
00:42:13.456 --> 00:42:15.978
If you have the same sort of
spike every time, well, it's a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7836-1
00:42:15.978 --> 00:42:16.566
good question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7840-0
00:42:16.576 --> 00:42:16.886
So.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7844-0
00:42:16.896 --> 00:42:18.286
So yeah, that's actually
interesting.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7875-0
00:42:18.296 --> 00:42:24.151
So the the longest intervals
technically are when the lake is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7875-1
00:42:24.151 --> 00:42:29.628
absent, so this the whole
actually lake history goes back

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7875-2
00:42:29.628 --> 00:42:30.666
2000 years.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7884-0
00:42:30.676 --> 00:42:32.316
We only modeled 1000 years back.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7901-0
00:42:33.166 --> 00:42:36.737
2000 years ago was the was like
the oldest lake that we have

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7901-1
00:42:36.737 --> 00:42:37.966
good measurements of.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7934-0
00:42:38.196 --> 00:42:42.364
And then it's actually about
1000 years before the next for

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7934-1
00:42:42.364 --> 00:42:45.837
the next lake and the
earthquake, the earthquakes

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7934-2
00:42:45.837 --> 00:42:48.546
between there are, there's
hardly any.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/7939-0
00:42:48.666 --> 00:42:50.976
So there might actually there's
other.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8000-0
00:42:50.986 --> 00:42:54.302
There's also a bunch of
suggestions too that you know

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8000-1
00:42:54.302 --> 00:42:57.864
super cycles are at play here,
so maybe all of the stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8000-2
00:42:57.864 --> 00:43:01.671
released itself in this past
1000 years, but the southern San

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8000-3
00:43:01.671 --> 00:43:05.539
Andreas Fault might have a much
longer supercycle period where

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8000-4
00:43:05.539 --> 00:43:08.916
we don't see earthquakes, Intel,
a certain time frame.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8010-0
00:43:08.986 --> 00:43:11.726
So uh, hopefully that answers
the question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8030-0
00:43:11.736 --> 00:43:15.695
But between the lake loading
itself, we do see when there are

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8030-1
00:43:15.695 --> 00:43:17.546
lakes, there are earthquakes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8045-0
00:43:17.586 --> 00:43:20.529
But again, that's based off of
their interpretations of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8045-1
00:43:20.529 --> 00:43:21.166
payload size.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8050-0
00:43:21.176 --> 00:43:21.776
Big history.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8105-0
00:43:21.876 --> 00:43:25.888
I guess it's sort of corollary
or counterpart, especially so

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8105-1
00:43:25.888 --> 00:43:29.044
that's the time intervals
modulation are to the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8105-2
00:43:29.044 --> 00:43:33.055
earthquakes that occur to have
less slight products for less

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8105-3
00:43:33.055 --> 00:43:36.869
important because you haven't
built up the really sort of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8105-4
00:43:36.869 --> 00:43:39.236
serious tectonic stress and
strain.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8114-0
00:43:39.396 --> 00:43:41.846
Umm, that's important that the
playground, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8133-0
00:43:41.856 --> 00:43:45.958
I mean the the lakes and trigger
the earthquake, but they're not

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8133-1
00:43:45.958 --> 00:43:47.346
moving the fault line.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8168-0
00:43:48.556 --> 00:43:51.616
All these these earthquakes are
all large events, and that's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8168-1
00:43:51.616 --> 00:43:54.424
from the you can see like
liquefaction, liquefaction in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8168-2
00:43:54.424 --> 00:43:57.233
the in the, in the, in the
things which only occur, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8168-3
00:43:57.233 --> 00:43:58.486
know, greater magnitudes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8178-0
00:43:58.536 --> 00:44:01.626
So these events that are labeled
here.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8197-0
00:44:01.856 --> 00:44:06.031
Besides, I think one of them out
of the seven is our considered

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8197-1
00:44:06.031 --> 00:44:07.726
larger, even major events.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8210-0
00:44:07.796 --> 00:44:10.356
So that's that, but we'll have
to see, right?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8212-0
00:44:10.366 --> 00:44:10.706
They're not.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8222-0
00:44:10.716 --> 00:44:12.496
We have no have historical
calculation on that.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8224-0
00:44:12.976 --> 00:44:15.356
So yeah. Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8228-0
00:44:17.246 --> 00:44:18.116
Thank you. Thanks.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8231-0
00:44:26.976 --> 00:44:27.296
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8301-0
00:44:34.966 --> 00:44:38.951
Yeah, this lease comma, higher
light level, produce the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8301-1
00:44:38.951 --> 00:44:42.935
borderless exchange that
encourages earthquakes and the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8301-2
00:44:42.935 --> 00:44:46.705
elastic material elastic
response would provide plan

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8301-3
00:44:46.705 --> 00:44:51.045
based on that was the elastic
response also like the loading

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8301-4
00:44:51.045 --> 00:44:55.242
response also fully find it out
like did we look at just a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8301-5
00:44:55.242 --> 00:44:56.736
purely elastic model?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8303-0
00:44:56.786 --> 00:44:57.656
Is it any question?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8307-0
00:45:01.046 --> 00:45:01.826
Oh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8311-0
00:45:02.106 --> 00:45:03.106
Ohh right yeah so.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8322-0
00:45:04.866 --> 00:45:06.616
Uh, so you can see one.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8339-0
00:45:06.666 --> 00:45:09.866
This is a good way to think
about this too is I think that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8339-1
00:45:09.866 --> 00:45:10.896
you would split up.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8346-0
00:45:11.336 --> 00:45:12.716
You can't really do it right.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8365-0
00:45:12.726 --> 00:45:15.658
It's fully coupled, but the what
you could kind of make out from

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8365-1
00:45:15.658 --> 00:45:17.236
the what's the undrained
response.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8394-0
00:45:17.246 --> 00:45:20.864
So just that purely load to
fluid coupling effect and in

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8394-1
00:45:20.864 --> 00:45:24.672
this poor elastic solution
because it's saturated, the poor

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8394-2
00:45:24.672 --> 00:45:26.956
pressure will rise
instantaneously.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8430-0
00:45:26.966 --> 00:45:30.182
And actually our largest
contribution, we think or pretty

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8430-1
00:45:30.182 --> 00:45:33.786
clearly is that is actually that
loading effect and it has to do

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8430-2
00:45:33.786 --> 00:45:36.946
with the 4th fluid already being
there within the crust.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8455-0
00:45:36.956 --> 00:45:41.614
So the the port the fusion
aspect is the 2nd tier to that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8455-1
00:45:41.614 --> 00:45:45.146
on drain effect from the elastic
load yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8462-0
00:45:48.156 --> 00:45:48.966
Back on the question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8464-0
00:45:48.976 --> 00:45:49.146
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8467-0
00:45:49.156 --> 00:45:49.686
Nice talk.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8470-0
00:45:49.796 --> 00:45:50.156
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8516-0
00:45:51.176 --> 00:45:54.241
So as I understand it, the
biggest change in the gulong

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8516-1
00:45:54.241 --> 00:45:57.578
failure function is due to the
essentially unclamping of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8516-2
00:45:57.578 --> 00:46:00.916
fault, because it's dipping away
from the lake and the fluid

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8516-3
00:46:00.916 --> 00:46:02.776
pressure diffusion into the
fall.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8534-0
00:46:02.786 --> 00:46:06.416
So unclamped reduce the normal
stress that for most failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8563-0
00:46:06.586 --> 00:46:09.445
But there's a shear stress
component to which you show, and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8563-1
00:46:09.445 --> 00:46:12.256
the shear stress for shear
traction is highly directional.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8599-0
00:46:12.266 --> 00:46:16.365
So looking at the column stress
change and impact on propensity

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8599-1
00:46:16.365 --> 00:46:20.400
for failure, it matters what the
ambient tectonic stresses you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8599-2
00:46:20.400 --> 00:46:20.656
see.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8615-0
00:46:20.666 --> 00:46:23.358
A few imposes the left ladder
will share a stress on the right

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8615-1
00:46:23.358 --> 00:46:23.956
lateral fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8638-0
00:46:24.266 --> 00:46:27.043
You're going to delay trigger
and and vice versa, promote it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8638-1
00:46:27.043 --> 00:46:28.726
for right lateral and right
lateral.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8651-0
00:46:29.286 --> 00:46:32.126
So, have you considered the
instress field?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8661-0
00:46:32.596 --> 00:46:34.166
And it looked like the load was.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8677-0
00:46:34.656 --> 00:46:37.476
I mean, look like we have shear
stress off to the northwest.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8680-0
00:46:38.726 --> 00:46:39.666
Yeah. Uh, yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8685-0
00:46:39.676 --> 00:46:40.036
Who wouldn't?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8701-0
00:46:40.226 --> 00:46:43.906
Think that would be right battle
for a load like this? You know?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8721-0
00:46:43.916 --> 00:46:47.462
Did you consider the the
traction induced by the lake and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8721-1
00:46:47.462 --> 00:46:49.296
superimposing on the tectonic?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8726-0
00:46:49.636 --> 00:46:50.436
Does it matter?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8743-0
00:46:50.446 --> 00:46:53.926
Was everything just all about
reduction and effect on it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8743-1
00:46:53.926 --> 00:46:55.696
doesn't really good question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8772-0
00:46:55.806 --> 00:47:01.000
So the the shear stress is but
or you know, uh, our models we

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8772-1
00:47:01.000 --> 00:47:04.266
we we we looked at a couple of
things.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8777-0
00:47:04.276 --> 00:47:05.996
We looked at the directional
influence.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8780-0
00:47:06.456 --> 00:47:06.816
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8790-0
00:47:07.816 --> 00:47:09.366
And we also looked at absolute
share.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8825-0
00:47:09.736 --> 00:47:13.278
So we found that even in all
cases that the shear stress is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8825-1
00:47:13.278 --> 00:47:16.879
pretty marginal to the overall
stress changes, the effective

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8825-2
00:47:16.879 --> 00:47:19.476
normal stress being the biggest
one I play.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8830-0
00:47:20.206 --> 00:47:20.676
So.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8859-0
00:47:20.766 --> 00:47:24.465
So in this case, the ambient
tectonic stress machine doesn't

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8859-1
00:47:24.465 --> 00:47:28.224
matter as much as if the shear
stress was the primary induced

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8859-2
00:47:28.224 --> 00:47:29.436
stress or something.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8866-0
00:47:29.706 --> 00:47:31.116
Yeah, it will.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8893-0
00:47:31.186 --> 00:47:35.535
So relative changes the the,
the, the, the the lake is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8893-1
00:47:35.535 --> 00:47:40.516
contributing you know certain
amount tectonically though those

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8893-2
00:47:40.516 --> 00:47:43.046
dresses are considerably larger.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8906-0
00:47:43.356 --> 00:47:46.697
So but we yeah, like just the
relative change from the lake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8906-1
00:47:46.697 --> 00:47:47.086
itself.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8939-0
00:47:47.716 --> 00:47:51.106
You know we when we first tried
to submit this and stuff, we

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8939-1
00:47:51.106 --> 00:47:54.607
wanted to actually look at the
overall stress change based off

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8939-2
00:47:54.607 --> 00:47:55.996
like a dislocation model.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8941-0
00:47:56.336 --> 00:47:56.716
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8946-0
00:47:57.456 --> 00:47:59.586
And that stress changed.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8971-0
00:47:59.596 --> 00:48:02.375
How much did the stress of the
lake like compared to the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8971-1
00:48:02.375 --> 00:48:04.666
overall stress change of the
tectonic loading?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8985-0
00:48:04.736 --> 00:48:08.226
And it's actually around like
25% of that we got.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/8999-0
00:48:08.296 --> 00:48:13.086
So if that kind of answers your
question, you know significant.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9016-0
00:48:13.096 --> 00:48:16.337
But it's again, yeah, it's
significant and it's it becomes

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9016-1
00:48:16.337 --> 00:48:16.776
smaller.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9048-0
00:48:16.786 --> 00:48:19.859
Of course, when you have longer
open intervals, because now that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9048-1
00:48:19.859 --> 00:48:22.364
stress is accumulated,
accumulated, accumulated, and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9048-2
00:48:22.364 --> 00:48:25.436
any sort of modulation on that,
overall stress is smaller, yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9068-0
00:48:27.846 --> 00:48:31.121
That's some online questions
that I've been waiting for a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9068-1
00:48:31.121 --> 00:48:31.516
minute.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9083-0
00:48:31.526 --> 00:48:34.496
So, Tom Hanks, you wanna be
yourself and ask your question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9092-0
00:48:38.376 --> 00:48:41.846
OK, thought we can't hear you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9099-0
00:48:41.856 --> 00:48:43.466
I think you mean muted yourself.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9109-0
00:48:44.856 --> 00:48:46.546
And OK, so let's do it this way.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9114-0
00:48:47.376 --> 00:48:47.756
There we go.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9121-0
00:48:49.396 --> 00:48:53.086
And my question has to do with
how do you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9154-0
00:48:55.986 --> 00:49:01.576
How do you estimate the duration
of the high stand and and then

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9154-1
00:49:01.576 --> 00:49:07.165
when the lake begins to dry up,
you take it all the way down to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9154-2
00:49:07.165 --> 00:49:07.776
0 lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9167-0
00:49:07.876 --> 00:49:14.006
But what happens if it just just
goes down to half full and of?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9183-0
00:49:14.036 --> 00:49:18.111
Course you know that Shoreline
will probably never be available

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9183-1
00:49:18.111 --> 00:49:18.556
to you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9205-0
00:49:19.266 --> 00:49:25.019
Uh, so the questions involve umm
yeah, how do you really

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9205-1
00:49:25.019 --> 00:49:28.046
distinguish the highest stand?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9219-0
00:49:28.896 --> 00:49:35.635
Yeah, from from where the wake
is just before it begins to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9219-1
00:49:35.635 --> 00:49:36.206
fall.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9237-0
00:49:36.556 --> 00:49:41.531
And then you have it
precipitously drying up, and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9237-1
00:49:41.531 --> 00:49:44.416
that raises a third question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9266-0
00:49:44.786 --> 00:49:49.769
If if you had a full wake and
then you had no additional

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9266-1
00:49:49.769 --> 00:49:55.014
contributions from the river,
how long would it take to dry

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9266-2
00:49:55.014 --> 00:49:55.276
up?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9269-0
00:49:56.866 --> 00:49:58.386
OK, that's a really good
question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9324-0
00:49:58.666 --> 00:50:02.987
So the timings of a lake in
indication is about 13 years,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9324-1
00:50:02.987 --> 00:50:07.158
and the desiccation 50 years,
and this was this is well

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9324-2
00:50:07.158 --> 00:50:11.702
constrained by Tom Rockwell's
work and his 2018 paper, where

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9324-3
00:50:11.702 --> 00:50:16.246
he looks at the loading filling
rates of the last two lakes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9352-0
00:50:16.646 --> 00:50:20.313
The for the model this is was
actually an interesting point

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9352-1
00:50:20.313 --> 00:50:23.796
that you make in one of the
reviewers commented on this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9377-0
00:50:23.806 --> 00:50:28.954
So at first we modeled a filling
rate where we said OK across the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9377-1
00:50:28.954 --> 00:50:33.556
entire perimeter and I'll just
get a picture actually the.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9393-0
00:50:35.386 --> 00:50:38.896
So here's the picture of the
model across this entire lake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9397-0
00:50:39.206 --> 00:50:40.666
Using this perimeter here.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9415-0
00:50:41.376 --> 00:50:45.872
Umm, we fill up the lake
proportionately based off of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9415-1
00:50:45.872 --> 00:50:47.786
this this filling rate.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9451-0
00:50:47.796 --> 00:50:52.126
So you know, if it was 25% full,
it's 25% full across that whole

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9451-1
00:50:52.126 --> 00:50:55.856
area, which obviously is not
what the reality would be.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9465-0
00:50:55.866 --> 00:50:59.464
The reality would be near
Bombay, where it's deepest that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9465-1
00:50:59.464 --> 00:51:00.146
would fill.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9507-0
00:51:00.236 --> 00:51:03.715
And so we actually
painstakingly, I ran a final

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9507-1
00:51:03.715 --> 00:51:07.339
model that used the local
bathymetry and had that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9507-2
00:51:07.339 --> 00:51:11.977
bathymetry fill up as it should
progress through the inundation

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9507-3
00:51:11.977 --> 00:51:14.296
phase and the desiccation phase.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9548-0
00:51:14.426 --> 00:51:19.453
And we found that the results
are reduced between pretty

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9548-1
00:51:19.453 --> 00:51:25.009
significantly 30 to like 40% and
we put that in the paper that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9548-2
00:51:25.009 --> 00:51:30.388
using a basic imagery, uh lake
level changes things a little

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9548-3
00:51:30.388 --> 00:51:32.416
bit send your question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9552-0
00:51:35.206 --> 00:51:36.086
What happens if?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9555-0
00:51:40.566 --> 00:51:40.856
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9564-0
00:51:40.866 --> 00:51:42.496
How do you determine the low
stand?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9569-0
00:51:42.506 --> 00:51:43.276
You, you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9574-0
00:51:43.286 --> 00:51:46.186
You always take it down to uh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9623-0
00:51:48.716 --> 00:51:54.069
OK, so the way Bill and then the
lake is, is that it's maximal

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9594-0
00:51:49.026 --> 00:51:50.146
Yeah to 0 like.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9623-1
00:51:54.069 --> 00:51:58.997
height for so long and then it
precipitously drops, which

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9621-0
00:51:58.756 --> 00:51:58.966
Mm-hmm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9623-2
00:51:58.997 --> 00:52:00.696
probably isn't true.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9659-0
00:52:01.046 --> 00:52:06.470
And what happens if you don't go
all the way to 0, but you go

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9659-1
00:52:06.470 --> 00:52:12.155
down to half full and you don't
know it because those shorelines

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9659-2
00:52:12.155 --> 00:52:15.566
are are always probably always
buried.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9660-0
00:52:16.836 --> 00:52:17.146
OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9662-0
00:52:17.156 --> 00:52:17.996
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9688-0
00:52:18.456 --> 00:52:23.483
Yeah, we don't we I would I one
here if I go back to actually

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9688-1
00:52:23.483 --> 00:52:28.510
the results here, one of the
lakes actually doesn't desiccate

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9688-2
00:52:28.510 --> 00:52:28.996
fully.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9709-0
00:52:29.006 --> 00:52:31.904
That's actually the very first
leg, and that's based off of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9709-1
00:52:31.904 --> 00:52:33.836
Tom's Rockwell, the times of the
lakes.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9759-0
00:52:33.846 --> 00:52:37.216
So we actually do have one
example where a lake hasn't

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9759-1
00:52:37.216 --> 00:52:41.013
fully desiccated, but it's just
a modeling assumption that we

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9759-2
00:52:41.013 --> 00:52:44.934
had to make in the shoreline is
pretty well constrained because

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9759-3
00:52:44.934 --> 00:52:47.996
it's like actually you can see
the bathtub rings.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9780-0
00:52:48.416 --> 00:52:51.657
And of course there would be
changes, but hopefully those

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9780-1
00:52:51.657 --> 00:52:54.506
changes are pretty marginal to
the overall stress.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9795-0
00:52:56.166 --> 00:52:58.936
Yeah, but the but bathtub rings
have to be separate.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9838-0
00:52:58.946 --> 00:53:04.714
It rated you know specially in
in order to see them in identify

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9807-0
00:53:00.376 --> 00:53:00.786
Yeah, you're.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9838-1
00:53:04.714 --> 00:53:10.391
them and what if what if there
are other shoreline stands that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9838-2
00:53:10.391 --> 00:53:14.716
just sit on top of something
something earlier.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9855-0
00:53:15.906 --> 00:53:20.622
I I just don't I I'm trying to
understand the uniqueness of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9845-0
00:53:16.576 --> 00:53:16.746
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9855-1
00:53:20.622 --> 00:53:22.036
this time history.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9860-0
00:53:23.126 --> 00:53:23.626
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9888-0
00:53:24.996 --> 00:53:30.354
And you know, in a lot of ways I
should be asking these questions

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9888-1
00:53:30.354 --> 00:53:35.386
to Tom, who did the geology law,
this stuff then then to you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9903-0
00:53:35.396 --> 00:53:39.696
But Tom's not available when you
are, so go ahead and message you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9903-1
00:53:39.696 --> 00:53:39.956
can.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9911-0
00:53:43.156 --> 00:53:46.006
Yeah, I I I'm not.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9916-0
00:53:46.056 --> 00:53:47.986
I kind of I I.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9924-0
00:53:47.996 --> 00:53:48.886
Yeah, I don't know how.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9926-0
00:53:48.896 --> 00:53:49.186
How?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/9935-0
00:53:49.196 --> 00:53:50.976
How else to answer your
question?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-0
00:53:51.296 --> 00:53:55.959
The you know, we we hadn't make
assumptions in the model and you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-1
00:53:55.959 --> 00:54:00.120
know we we can't constrain
everything and I think I think

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-2
00:54:00.120 --> 00:54:04.712
as far as like order dependence
goes, I think that's you know a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-3
00:54:04.712 --> 00:54:09.446
much higher order you know issue
or problem and there actually is

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-4
00:54:09.446 --> 00:54:13.894
a I had talked to Dave Samwell
on this problem and one of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-5
00:54:13.894 --> 00:54:17.912
reasons we wanted to use this
Lake imprint or this this

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-6
00:54:17.912 --> 00:54:22.575
footprint right here is because
that's the same footprint, exact

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10034-7
00:54:22.575 --> 00:54:25.946
same footprint used in prior and
prior models.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10061-0
00:54:26.216 --> 00:54:30.302
So we wanted to keep a sort of
consistency throughout the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10061-1
00:54:30.302 --> 00:54:34.316
different works and uh, you
know, they're in the future.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10098-0
00:54:34.326 --> 00:54:37.293
I'm sure they're going to have
better models of this and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10098-1
00:54:37.293 --> 00:54:40.313
there's actually new LIDAR
measurements to the South that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10098-2
00:54:40.313 --> 00:54:43.384
are improving our understanding
of where the lake the lake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10098-3
00:54:43.384 --> 00:54:44.216
boundaries were.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10115-0
00:54:44.436 --> 00:54:48.616
So yeah, that's I think that's
all the information I can share

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10115-1
00:54:48.616 --> 00:54:49.146
on this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10118-0
00:54:49.346 --> 00:54:49.816
OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10125-0
00:54:49.826 --> 00:54:54.416
Well, bells on on the air right
now.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10136-0
00:54:54.426 --> 00:54:56.396
Maybe she has something to add
to this.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10140-0
00:54:56.406 --> 00:54:56.936
Go ahead.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10151-0
00:54:57.486 --> 00:54:59.086
They'll take over if you can.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10162-0
00:54:59.866 --> 00:55:01.316
The so anyone help me?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10160-0
00:55:01.236 --> 00:55:02.386
I I would just.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10172-0
00:55:02.736 --> 00:55:04.346
Sorry I couldn't be there in
person.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10186-0
00:55:04.356 --> 00:55:07.186
I I was hoping I'd be able to
come in, but I can.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10188-0
00:55:04.686 --> 00:55:05.226
Yeah, no worries.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10258-0
00:55:07.196 --> 00:55:11.372
I can jump here to talk about
answer Tom's question a little

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10210-0
00:55:10.966 --> 00:55:11.166
OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10258-1
00:55:11.372 --> 00:55:15.342
bit, I think, which is that
because the leak is filled by

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10258-2
00:55:15.342 --> 00:55:19.380
input from the Colorado River
diversion, there isn't there

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10258-3
00:55:19.380 --> 00:55:23.829
isn't really a reason to expect
that it would ever be maintained

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10258-4
00:55:23.829 --> 00:55:27.731
at a high stand at A at a
shoreline level other than the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10258-5
00:55:27.731 --> 00:55:29.236
highest and shoreline.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10285-0
00:55:30.086 --> 00:55:33.378
Because if the water was
diverted in, it would fill all

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10285-1
00:55:33.378 --> 00:55:37.200
the way up to the point where it
would spill over, which is that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10285-2
00:55:37.200 --> 00:55:38.316
13 meter shoreline.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10302-0
00:55:39.286 --> 00:55:42.686
And then when the river was
diverted away, it would

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10302-1
00:55:42.686 --> 00:55:43.536
desiccate in.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10334-0
00:55:43.546 --> 00:55:46.634
There, there's no reason why it
would ever be maintained at a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10334-1
00:55:46.634 --> 00:55:49.722
lower level, so I think it's
that is a reasonable Sumption to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10334-2
00:55:49.722 --> 00:55:51.166
make in this particular case.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10337-0
00:55:53.376 --> 00:55:53.706
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10340-0
00:55:53.716 --> 00:55:54.066
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10342-0
00:55:54.106 --> 00:55:54.326
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10348-0
00:55:54.336 --> 00:55:54.956
Thank you so much.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10365-0
00:55:57.016 --> 00:55:58.116
And thanks for your talk, Riley.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10358-0
00:55:58.416 --> 00:55:58.986
No, thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10361-0
00:55:58.996 --> 00:55:59.466
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-0
00:55:59.736 --> 00:56:04.055
I I have a question you
mentioned in your talk that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-1
00:56:04.055 --> 00:56:09.204
Wenchuan earthquake and it's
possible connection to those are

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-2
00:56:09.204 --> 00:56:13.688
being fluid reservoir the
Zipping Boo reservoir has a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-3
00:56:13.688 --> 00:56:19.086
dimension of about 10 kilometers
and whereas the fault is of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-4
00:56:19.086 --> 00:56:24.235
order of 300 kilometers long, I
guess it's that that makes it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-5
00:56:24.235 --> 00:56:29.301
similar in some ways to your
proposed connection between the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-6
00:56:29.301 --> 00:56:34.284
the Salton Sea and and what
water chairs, brakes, it can be

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-7
00:56:34.284 --> 00:56:39.350
by magnitude 7 or so range then
in in both cases the zipping

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-8
00:56:39.350 --> 00:56:44.000
poop reservoir connection in
particular kind of strange

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-9
00:56:44.000 --> 00:56:48.817
spreadability considering that,
you know, even though the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-10
00:56:48.817 --> 00:56:54.215
hypocenter is uh in the city of
these zipping through reservoir,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-11
00:56:54.215 --> 00:56:59.281
umm if it's a very small area
where the hydrological effects

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-12
00:56:59.281 --> 00:57:04.513
could have had the an influence
on on on this or magnitude 7.8

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10548-13
00:57:04.513 --> 00:57:05.426
earthquake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10554-0
00:57:05.436 --> 00:57:06.336
Yeah, 7.7.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10558-0
00:57:06.666 --> 00:57:07.076
Yeah, and.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10593-0
00:57:07.086 --> 00:57:12.063
And then I'm just wondering if
you don't have a similar problem

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10593-1
00:57:12.063 --> 00:57:16.729
here where the salt and the sea
is of a smart a far smaller

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10593-2
00:57:16.729 --> 00:57:19.606
dimension than the major
earthquake.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10604-0
00:57:19.656 --> 00:57:22.886
Yeah, of the long that portion,
I mean, they're.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10608-0
00:57:22.926 --> 00:57:23.096
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10638-0
00:57:24.506 --> 00:57:28.664
Yeah, there seems to have been
better off plate reorganization

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10638-1
00:57:28.664 --> 00:57:32.492
because Imperial Valley Falls
seems to be the most active

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10638-2
00:57:32.492 --> 00:57:34.406
element in that general area.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10657-0
00:57:34.416 --> 00:57:39.486
At least half of the Salton Sea
and giving the Mexico?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10661-0
00:57:40.036 --> 00:57:41.246
That's really good question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10669-0
00:57:42.666 --> 00:57:45.046
Uh, so there's a there's.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10715-0
00:57:45.066 --> 00:57:48.180
Like you said, there's there's a
lot of faults in this area and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10715-1
00:57:48.180 --> 00:57:51.294
in fact the brothers paper that
I mentioned at the start of the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10715-2
00:57:51.294 --> 00:57:53.872
talk actually looked at the
normal faults within the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10715-3
00:57:53.872 --> 00:57:54.796
extensional regime.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10774-0
00:57:54.896 --> 00:57:58.642
That and their work suggested
that the lake itself probably

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10774-1
00:57:58.642 --> 00:58:02.076
didn't contribute that much
stress on southern address

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10774-2
00:58:02.076 --> 00:58:05.385
fault, but for probably
triggered normal faults that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10774-3
00:58:05.385 --> 00:58:09.006
then increase common failure
stress on the swing stage as

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10774-4
00:58:09.006 --> 00:58:12.627
fault, which has totally
potential, I could have occurred

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10774-5
00:58:12.627 --> 00:58:13.126
as well.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10782-0
00:58:13.956 --> 00:58:16.406
And someone at Skegness music.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10788-0
00:58:16.556 --> 00:58:17.676
You only Model 1 fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10811-0
00:58:17.686 --> 00:58:20.206
Where about the other fault and
I was like, well, yeah, let's

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10811-1
00:58:20.206 --> 00:58:21.466
save this for the other papers.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10815-0
00:58:21.476 --> 00:58:23.436
Right, just joking.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10828-0
00:58:23.446 --> 00:58:26.056
But I'm definitely not hopefully
gonna do it again.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10851-0
00:58:26.446 --> 00:58:32.111
But but this, this, this, this
lake had effects on the other

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10851-1
00:58:32.111 --> 00:58:34.896
faults in the area definitely.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10855-0
00:58:34.906 --> 00:58:38.426
And it's interesting.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10878-0
00:58:38.506 --> 00:58:43.129
Again, I I do I I am really
curious about the idea of, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10878-1
00:58:43.129 --> 00:58:46.576
know, putting more of the fault
to failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10887-0
00:58:46.586 --> 00:58:48.126
And that's what happened with
the long mentioned.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10932-0
00:58:48.216 --> 00:58:51.595
I think it's called the long
Menschen LA and and it's a you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10932-1
00:58:51.595 --> 00:58:55.255
can see in the modeling efforts
like like like you like you said

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10932-2
00:58:55.255 --> 00:58:58.577
it you know the the stress at
the hypocenter pretty pretty

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10932-3
00:58:58.577 --> 00:58:59.196
negligible.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10952-0
00:58:59.506 --> 00:59:01.991
But they looked at the poor
pressure across the entire

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10952-1
00:59:01.991 --> 00:59:04.656
interface of the fault because
they took the in the fault.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10955-0
00:59:04.666 --> 00:59:05.356
Is this weird?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/10970-0
00:59:05.366 --> 00:59:10.656
Sort of curved shape and it had
been the recurrence interval.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11011-0
00:59:10.806 --> 00:59:14.687
Time had been accelerated across
all of that portion, so the idea

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11011-1
00:59:14.687 --> 00:59:18.567
being that if you have a trigger
and the whole thing goes as like

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11011-2
00:59:18.567 --> 00:59:21.976
a cascading rupture, that's
something really fascinating.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11052-0
00:59:22.256 --> 00:59:25.938
Not I'm curious to learn more
about but but yeah, potentially

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11052-1
00:59:25.938 --> 00:59:29.798
if this is a triggering spot and
the whole fault, uh went to you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11052-2
00:59:29.798 --> 00:59:33.658
know, it's where it's currently
or like section that's locked it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11052-3
00:59:33.658 --> 00:59:34.726
maybe maybe. Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11054-0
00:59:36.316 --> 00:59:36.636
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11057-0
00:59:36.646 --> 00:59:36.956
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11060-0
00:59:36.966 --> 00:59:37.506
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11101-0
00:59:37.896 --> 00:59:40.875
There are a few other questions
in the chat here that have

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11101-1
00:59:40.875 --> 00:59:44.005
touched on topics that we've
been talking about, but I wanted

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11101-2
00:59:44.005 --> 00:59:47.135
to give those folks a chance to
expand on them if they wanted

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11101-3
00:59:47.135 --> 00:59:47.286
to.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11135-0
00:59:47.296 --> 00:59:51.573
So if he had a question about
the effects of partially

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11135-1
00:59:51.573 --> 00:59:56.317
fillings as well, it is there
something you wanted to add to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11135-2
00:59:56.317 --> 00:59:57.716
that conversation?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11138-0
00:59:57.726 --> 00:59:59.396
And whereas a separate question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11142-0
01:00:03.626 --> 01:00:03.916
Hi.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11147-0
01:00:03.926 --> 01:00:04.276
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11167-0
01:00:04.286 --> 01:00:08.084
I just, you know, we do have
evidence from some of the sites

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11167-1
01:00:08.084 --> 01:00:11.756
deeper in the Salton Sea that
there were partial fillings.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11192-0
01:00:11.766 --> 01:00:15.034
And so I wanted to know if you
were considering or could kind

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11192-1
01:00:15.034 --> 01:00:17.616
of talk about what the impacts
of that would be.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11200-0
01:00:18.596 --> 01:00:20.236
Umm, you know there?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11208-0
01:00:21.646 --> 01:00:23.316
Uh, just there's just a couple
sites.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11234-0
01:00:23.326 --> 01:00:26.427
There's not good timing on that,
so it would, it would be, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11234-1
01:00:26.427 --> 01:00:29.576
know, coming up with the right
sort of approach to modeling it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11264-0
01:00:29.586 --> 01:00:32.601
But if you had some thoughts
thinking about if you did have

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11264-1
01:00:32.601 --> 01:00:35.565
partial filling events, what
would those do to your model?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11264-2
01:00:35.565 --> 01:00:35.916
Thanks.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11269-0
01:00:36.446 --> 01:00:37.076
It doesn't.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11278-0
01:00:37.086 --> 01:00:39.716
It's really interesting
question, am I think.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11283-0
01:00:39.726 --> 01:00:40.696
Uh, yeah, it would.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11286-0
01:00:40.706 --> 01:00:41.036
It would.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11289-0
01:00:41.046 --> 01:00:41.436
It would.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11297-0
01:00:41.446 --> 01:00:43.396
It would contribute to to
failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11312-0
01:00:43.406 --> 01:00:45.688
I mean, anytime, anytime the
like seems to fill, it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11312-1
01:00:45.688 --> 01:00:46.696
contributes to failure.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11368-0
01:00:46.706 --> 01:00:50.962
I think the if if this filling
was in the same shape as the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11368-1
01:00:50.962 --> 01:00:55.431
Salton Sea right from the the
the the lowest, the lowest depth

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11368-2
01:00:55.431 --> 01:01:00.042
here is actually a slide that I
didn't include in the talk where

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11368-3
01:01:00.042 --> 01:01:04.226
you can see the actual stress
changes from the Salton Sea.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11375-0
01:01:05.016 --> 01:01:06.506
This is again for a point.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11433-0
01:01:06.926 --> 01:01:11.087
These are for different points
across the fault, but you can

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11433-1
01:01:11.087 --> 01:01:14.771
see that you know even small
changes in the load will

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11433-2
01:01:14.771 --> 01:01:19.137
contribute to positive cooling,
failure, stress and so like I'm

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11433-3
01:01:19.137 --> 01:01:23.298
I'm not sure exactly when the
timings are, but if you had it

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11433-4
01:01:23.298 --> 01:01:26.776
maybe in this dryer period or
somewhere back here.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11462-0
01:01:27.426 --> 01:01:30.873
Umm yeah, you would you you we
would expect to see these sort

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11462-1
01:01:30.873 --> 01:01:34.042
of these sort of stretch
changes, the increasing cooling

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11462-2
01:01:34.042 --> 01:01:34.876
failure stress.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11466-0
01:01:35.376 --> 01:01:36.266
I hope that answers your
question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11476-0
01:01:39.906 --> 01:01:40.206
Umm.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11474-0
01:01:39.996 --> 01:01:40.586
Yes, it does.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11479-0
01:01:40.596 --> 01:01:40.926
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11514-0
01:01:42.146 --> 01:01:45.869
It looks like Greece had a
question expanding on the along

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11514-1
01:01:45.869 --> 01:01:49.844
strike extent of the effects of
this poroelasticity related to

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11514-2
01:01:49.844 --> 01:01:51.736
some of our earlier questions.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11525-0
01:01:51.746 --> 01:01:53.416
Ruth, did you wanna expand on
that?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11526-0
01:01:54.486 --> 01:01:54.816
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11544-0
01:01:54.826 --> 01:01:59.106
So this is very closely related
to Art McCarthy, good question

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11544-1
01:01:59.106 --> 01:02:01.076
about the long strike extent.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11558-0
01:02:01.886 --> 01:02:05.178
But this is a question also just
for how we understand earthquake

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11558-1
01:02:05.178 --> 01:02:05.676
mechanics.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11587-0
01:02:05.906 --> 01:02:09.651
We don't really know what sets
off and of quick how you end up

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11587-1
01:02:09.651 --> 01:02:12.326
with a magnitude 5 versus the
magnitude 7.9.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11591-0
01:02:13.556 --> 01:02:14.446
So are you?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11600-0
01:02:13.736 --> 01:02:14.066
OK.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11664-0
01:02:14.656 --> 01:02:18.148
I'm hoping in that in the near
future, planning on modeling

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11664-1
01:02:18.148 --> 01:02:21.873
things along strike to see how
they look and also what does the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11664-2
01:02:21.873 --> 01:02:25.482
picture look like with depth
cause here like this plot is for

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11664-3
01:02:25.482 --> 01:02:29.032
7 kilometer depth, but I think
in the Coulomb failure stress

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11664-4
01:02:29.032 --> 01:02:32.698
figure so you showed before when
the movie you also showed the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11664-5
01:02:32.698 --> 01:02:35.026
how how things are affected with
depth.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11669-0
01:02:35.036 --> 01:02:36.626
So are you planning on?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11683-0
01:02:36.676 --> 01:02:38.746
I'm hoping continuing I do feel
sorry for you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11741-0
01:02:38.756 --> 01:02:42.462
With Abacus so originally did
work with Abacus Long long ago,

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11741-1
01:02:42.462 --> 01:02:45.928
and I've also worked with
students with Abacus it and not

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11716-0
01:02:43.486 --> 01:02:43.846
Hold on.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11741-2
01:02:45.928 --> 01:02:49.275
fun, so I hope you can find a
easier program to use for

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11741-3
01:02:49.275 --> 01:02:51.486
geoscientists anyway, in the
future.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11762-0
01:02:51.496 --> 01:02:54.245
Sometimes, but now that you've
struggled through 'cause, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11762-1
01:02:54.245 --> 01:02:55.146
are an expert at it.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11792-0
01:02:55.256 --> 01:02:58.181
Anyway, I was wondering about
the long straight for both the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11792-1
01:02:58.181 --> 01:03:00.817
stress the Coulomb barrier
structure and then also the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11792-2
01:03:00.817 --> 01:03:01.536
stressing rate.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11812-0
01:03:01.806 --> 01:03:04.948
If you're thinking of looking at
in the feature that that in the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11812-1
01:03:04.948 --> 01:03:05.286
future.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11816-0
01:03:05.606 --> 01:03:08.296
Well, yeah, the that's a good
question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11827-0
01:03:08.386 --> 01:03:10.656
I I I would like to learn more
about that.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11831-0
01:03:10.666 --> 01:03:11.236
Definitely.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11846-0
01:03:11.246 --> 01:03:15.886
And I think that I we have the
stress results, right.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11874-0
01:03:15.896 --> 01:03:19.453
The advocates I'll put the
stress tensor and we can

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11874-1
01:03:19.453 --> 01:03:23.763
manipulate that stress tensor
anyway we want, so hopefully I'm

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11874-2
01:03:23.763 --> 01:03:25.746
not super familiar with that.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11908-0
01:03:26.436 --> 01:03:29.665
Uh, we met that method, but I
would assume that you could

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11908-1
01:03:29.665 --> 01:03:33.006
probably get it to be a long
strike by just manipulating of

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11908-2
01:03:33.006 --> 01:03:35.566
the stress tensor, but we could
look at that.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11910-0
01:03:35.576 --> 01:03:35.786
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11967-0
01:03:35.796 --> 01:03:39.534
And then just add a sort of
hypothetical stressing rate from

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11967-1
01:03:39.534 --> 01:03:42.903
some sort of dislocation model
or maybe something more

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11967-2
01:03:42.903 --> 01:03:46.763
elaborate, but but I don't want
to run anymore bottles, but we

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11967-3
01:03:46.763 --> 01:03:50.010
think we could use the current
results to do a quick

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11953-0
01:03:47.026 --> 01:03:47.376
I think.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11967-4
01:03:50.010 --> 01:03:52.276
calculation like that would be
cool.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11973-0
01:03:52.286 --> 01:03:53.236
Yeah, that's really great idea.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11988-0
01:03:53.246 --> 01:03:53.566
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11977-0
01:03:54.016 --> 01:03:54.286
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11990-0
01:03:54.296 --> 01:03:56.026
No, I would need to see like how
far?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11992-0
01:03:56.036 --> 01:03:56.266
How?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/11995-0
01:03:56.276 --> 01:03:56.786
How far?

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12034-0
01:03:56.796 --> 01:03:59.983
Even if you just did the stress
and stress change into the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12034-1
01:03:59.983 --> 01:04:03.440
stressing great change just to
see how far along, how long, how

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12034-2
01:04:03.440 --> 01:04:06.356
far along the southern San
Andreas Fault you can get.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12036-0
01:04:06.396 --> 01:04:06.706
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12039-0
01:04:06.716 --> 01:04:07.126
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12047-0
01:04:07.136 --> 01:04:08.336
And I really liked your talk.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12080-0
01:04:08.346 --> 01:04:11.491
I really appreciate that how you
explained on really complicated

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12080-1
01:04:11.491 --> 01:04:14.346
concepts really well and and
this is really good work that

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12087-0
01:04:13.816 --> 01:04:16.226
Like if. Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12080-2
01:04:14.346 --> 01:04:14.926
you've done.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12090-0
01:04:14.936 --> 01:04:15.356
So thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12091-0
01:04:16.236 --> 01:04:16.546
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12096-0
01:04:16.556 --> 01:04:16.786
Thank you.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12121-0
01:04:18.416 --> 01:04:22.483
Due to the time, I think we'll
have our last question from Andy

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12121-1
01:04:22.483 --> 01:04:24.706
Barber and it's got two thumbs
up.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12126-0
01:04:24.716 --> 01:04:25.546
So on the chat.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12143-0
01:04:25.556 --> 01:04:27.856
So it's a popular question if
you wanna ask your question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12144-0
01:04:28.706 --> 01:04:29.656
His thumbs up.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12147-0
01:04:29.666 --> 01:04:30.136
Alright.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12154-0
01:04:30.406 --> 01:04:33.206
Uh, yeah, I too thought.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12179-0
01:04:33.216 --> 01:04:35.749
Thought you guys did a really
good job on the study and the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12179-1
01:04:35.749 --> 01:04:37.226
correlation is really
fascinating.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-0
01:04:39.156 --> 01:04:43.842
I guess my question is sort of
related to other in the, you

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-1
01:04:43.842 --> 01:04:48.684
know evidence of this showing up
on other major faults in the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-2
01:04:48.684 --> 01:04:53.527
region, given the geographic
extent of a full like a here I'm

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-3
01:04:53.527 --> 01:04:58.369
you know I'm not necessarily
aware of all the paleoseismology

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12230-0
01:04:55.566 --> 01:04:55.786
You know.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-4
01:04:58.369 --> 01:05:03.133
or you know studies out there,
but wouldn't we need to see a

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-5
01:05:03.133 --> 01:05:07.975
similar pattern on the imperial
fall the perhaps even the San

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-6
01:05:07.975 --> 01:05:12.583
Jacinto Fault or even faults
further South into the in the

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12281-7
01:05:12.583 --> 01:05:14.066
Mexico for example.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12298-0
01:05:14.296 --> 01:05:16.446
So that's that's the basis of my
question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12292-0
01:05:14.666 --> 01:05:15.066
It.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12304-0
01:05:17.146 --> 01:05:18.916
Yeah, that's a that's a really
great question.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12312-0
01:05:18.926 --> 01:05:21.916
And TomTom Rockwell, a Co author
on the paper.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12345-0
01:05:21.926 --> 01:05:26.139
He he he has been trying to get
funding and trying to get people

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12345-1
01:05:26.139 --> 01:05:30.093
out there to get more, more
paleoseismic studies and and and

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12345-2
01:05:30.093 --> 01:05:32.296
get more evidence on this
effect.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12349-0
01:05:32.706 --> 01:05:33.276
Uh.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12354-0
01:05:33.846 --> 01:05:35.296
Or, you know, maybe lack
thereof.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12369-0
01:05:35.306 --> 01:05:38.395
So it would be really
interesting to get more studies

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12369-1
01:05:38.395 --> 01:05:38.966
out there.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12381-0
01:05:39.366 --> 01:05:42.056
And yeah, I I I I would love to
see it as well.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12405-0
01:05:42.066 --> 01:05:45.476
I don't wanna go out and dig
more holes, but I'll definitely

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12405-1
01:05:45.476 --> 01:05:47.376
be interested to see the
effects.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12406-0
01:05:49.276 --> 01:05:49.606
Yeah.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12416-0
01:05:49.616 --> 01:05:50.706
Anyway, nice talk. Thanks.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12418-0
01:05:51.216 --> 01:05:51.846
Thank you, baby.

48824814-4483-4b25-8f72-28d422c5de66/12432-0
01:05:53.256 --> 01:05:55.876
Right, folks, with that, let's
thank our speaker one more time.