WEBVTT

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Alright. Hello everybody, and
welcome to the April 5th ESC

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seminar. And before we begin,
I'd like to go through just a

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couple of announcements.
Everybody, please mark on your

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calendar that there will be an
in-person All Hands on May 10th

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at Moffett Field and the day
right afterwards in the

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afternoon, we're going to have a
media training. Also on April

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14th is the deadline for the
Presidential Early Career Award

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for scientists and engineers,

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which has been won by several
USGS people before, so please

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remember to submit your
nominations. You can find the

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form in an e-mail that
Christine sent out on March

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30th, and finally on the week of
April 17th through 20th. A lot

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of us are gonna be at SSA, so
there's not gonna be any ESC

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seminar that week. Now, I'm
gonna hand it off to Mustafa.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/206-6
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Ohh I mean. Sorry. To Mehmet to
introduce our speaker today,

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Professor Mustafa.

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Erdik.

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Good morning everybody. I am
happy to introduce Professor

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Mustafa Erdik today.

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I have been.

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Let's say a colleague and friend
and everything else.

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I have known Mustafa for many
decades, so probably best person suited

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to introduce him.

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And also I would like to say
that, uh, at least two people or

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more in the audience in that 
remember Mustafa when he worked

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at the USGS many years ago with the
late Bill Joyner.

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Mustafa started

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his early earthquake engineering career as
a student at MEU

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Participated in a reconnaissance
of the 1970 Gediz earthquake.

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And I believe that probably
led him to where he is now because

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he enjoyed that regular
science study.

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He received his bachelors degree
from Middles Technical

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University in 1973 and then
received [not discernible] scholarship to

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study for his PhD at Rice
University.

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Under the 

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direction of

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Well-known professors and
[indiscernible].

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Following that, he joined
faculty at METU, Middle East University

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[noise]

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And advocated earthquake
engineering curriculum and

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research.

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Later, he moved to Kandilli
Observatory of Boğaziçi 

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University, where he served as
director of that institute for

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many years.

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From 1992 to including 1999 earthquakes
in Turkey.

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He played a big role.

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in also developing Earthquake Early Warning
System for Istanbul area.

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Uh, I must say that the Mustafa
can be described as unretired

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retired professor, because I
think he's more busy now than

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when he was active as a faculty
member in Boğaziçi 

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University. So I am very happy
to introduce Mustafa who's

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been a long time friend and
colleague. Thank you. So please

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go ahead.

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OK. Well,  thank you, Mehmet.
I hope I deserve all the

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statements. And I'm. 
pleased to be able to

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address to such a
distinguished audience, I'm sure

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that you have heard lots of
talks on the earthquake, but

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this will be one that I'll try
to wrap up things, and then I'll

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essentially try to discuss what
went on in the earthquake and

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then the first half of my
presentation will deal with 

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the subjects you that you know
problem much better than I do

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dealing with tectonic seismicity,
ground motion part and

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then the second-half I will delve
into the structural stuff.

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Let me take your first slide.

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Well.

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I'm sure that by now you know
all of those things, but

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essentially The thing is that.

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Uh, well, the earthquake took
place on the so-called Islamic

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Tolian fault, and those are the
two events that are about.

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Well, those are the ones that
are about 9 hours apart. So the

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all the buildings in this area
essentially were affected by two

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earthquakes essentially but very
short interval in between.

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They uh Magnum 7 point
Earthquake was physically very

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similar to 1906 San Francisco
cake. That or I think 80% of the

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city was destroyed.

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If we look at the general
statistics, about 3 million

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people have been displaced about
1.7 million people have been

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resettled, about 260,000
collapsed and or heavily damaged

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buildings.

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And then about at least three
2000 and including Syria,

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probably 55,000, that's an 1100
injuries.

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Well, this is a closer view of
the eastern Italian fault.

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The area marked as blue here,
which is described here, is that

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there were no large earthquake.
Major earthquake in the last 500

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years than the last earthquake
here, two last earthquakes. One

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of them is that you'll want 14
and the other one is 1513.

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And the earthquake essentially
affected this segment. Then jump

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to this segment to the north of
it. While the most the biggest

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stores cake that has affected
this part was the one in what we

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call Antakya, they all cities
Antioch and that was in 526,

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then about 250 to 300,000 people
lost their lives. That's the

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proud, the largest casualties
that you're an earthquake that

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we know of.

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And the well, the same area was
one of the areas that has

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received the the greatest damage
compared to the others as well.

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Well, the this is just a.

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Uh map that indicates the the
slip rates and the slip rate on

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the Eastern Anatolian fault
appears to whereabout once

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attributed per year. And that
means that if you are talking

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about 6 meters, slip in 10
millimeters year per sleep, that

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gives about 600 plus years as a
repeat time and that's what we

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have seen in the source code as
well.

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This map on the left is as
essential, taking from the

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Turkey, Syria, earthquake
sequence from USGS that shows

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the the ruptured areas.

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And then the.

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The the first earthquake took
plus over here on the another

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00:07:17.273 --> 00:07:20.644
fault and jumped to this fault
and then after 9 hours jump to

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this fault.

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Essentially, uh. These two
faults are combined here, but

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for some reason that part didn't
get activated, but this part was

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activated and then the this is a
I I took it from Rosenstein from

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temblor, which says that this
part is very similar to the San

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Andreas and the Garlock Fault
and the Garlock Fault here,

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essentially mimicking the that
of the LB Star fault, which is

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this one.

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And then then the having an
earthquake on this one and

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jumping to this one to the main.

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To the main fault is also
repeated as he says, those are

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again from most time in the
magnet 9 point 7.9 generally

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00:08:06.871 --> 00:08:07.332
event.

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These are the pictures of the
fault offset that are thousands

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of them proud, have just taken
the ones six of them. Those are

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00:08:19.027 --> 00:08:22.678
the from the MTA report in
Turkey and then and then. Well,

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the area is a huge area. So
there are snows, there's springs

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and all sorts of things in the
region. This is 3.6 meters and

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then it goes to 3.7 meter. Here.
This. This is the classical

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picture of the offset in the
railroad. It shows that the

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railroad was built very well,
built very well, though nothing

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00:08:41.428 --> 00:08:41.862
in the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1262-0
00:08:41.992 --> 00:08:44.782
And in the buttresses, nothing
in the system as well. So.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1288-0
00:08:46.052 --> 00:08:50.546
The If you look at the, this is
the aftershocks. I think they I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1288-1
00:08:50.546 --> 00:08:54.970
got them from the institute. So
probably about 3-4 days old at

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1288-2
00:08:54.970 --> 00:08:55.602
the most.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1311-0
00:08:56.422 --> 00:08:59.060
Uh, you don't see it much on
this one, but you see the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1311-1
00:08:59.060 --> 00:09:01.746
detachment here as well.
Essentially there is no direct

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1311-2
00:09:01.746 --> 00:09:04.816
physical connection between this
falter and that fault here for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1311-3
00:09:04.816 --> 00:09:05.392
some reason.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1339-0
00:09:06.072 --> 00:09:09.399
And then the earthquakes are
dying down with days this the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1339-1
00:09:09.399 --> 00:09:13.064
horizontal axis days, the work,
the axis, the number of vertical

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1339-2
00:09:13.064 --> 00:09:16.222
axis recorded. So aftershocks
are dying in this manner.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-0
00:09:17.412 --> 00:09:20.910
But there have been several
aftershocks. The interesting is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-1
00:09:20.910 --> 00:09:24.350
that there were at least three
aftershocks with magnitudes

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-2
00:09:24.350 --> 00:09:28.139
between Magnus 6 and seven, and
49 aftershocks with magnitudes 5

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-3
00:09:28.139 --> 00:09:31.696
and six. And then they finished
the buildings that were here

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-4
00:09:31.696 --> 00:09:35.252
with either medium damaged or
heavily damaged, and they they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-5
00:09:35.252 --> 00:09:38.400
made them collapsed. So so many
aftershocks and large

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1421-6
00:09:38.400 --> 00:09:42.132
aftershocks was. We haven't seen
it, at least in Turkey before.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-0
00:09:45.562 --> 00:09:49.440
Well, this is the uh stations uh
in Turkey operated by the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-1
00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:53.252
disaster Emergency Management
Presidency. There are other

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-2
00:09:53.252 --> 00:09:56.999
stations that we operate and
other institutions operates

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-3
00:09:56.999 --> 00:10:00.943
altogether that are about 2000
stations in this area, storm

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-4
00:10:00.943 --> 00:10:05.019
motion stations and then those
are the ones that recorded the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-5
00:10:05.019 --> 00:10:09.160
first earthquake magnitude 7.8.
Then the second one and that's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-6
00:10:09.160 --> 00:10:13.301
the third one that's in South.
Even those are several sessions

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1502-7
00:10:13.301 --> 00:10:14.222
recorded them.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-0
00:10:15.442 --> 00:10:18.785
While these stations are
essentially managed by the OFAT

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-1
00:10:18.785 --> 00:10:22.481
the agency, and they are still
struggling on the releasing the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-2
00:10:22.481 --> 00:10:26.118
final set of data, so I'll I'll
be working on the data that I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-3
00:10:26.118 --> 00:10:29.638
received directly from Ofwat.
They keep changing them, they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-4
00:10:29.638 --> 00:10:33.217
keep they, they're changing
their baseline adjustment, other

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-5
00:10:33.217 --> 00:10:36.854
things. So I'm sure it will take
some time so that we can see

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-6
00:10:36.854 --> 00:10:40.374
them as the final set of data,
but there's a huge number of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-7
00:10:40.374 --> 00:10:44.128
data obviously obtained from the
main sharks and aftershocks as

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1577-8
00:10:44.128 --> 00:10:44.422
well.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1632-0
00:10:45.812 --> 00:10:50.947
This is the largest shock. Uh.
They removed this data set for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1632-1
00:10:50.947 --> 00:10:56.248
some time from the website and
put them again, and then the the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1632-2
00:10:56.248 --> 00:11:01.550
peaks are about 1.95 G close to
2G peaks. Displacements are not

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1632-3
00:11:01.550 --> 00:11:07.016
that great, about 22 millimeters
to centimeters, and the location

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1632-4
00:11:07.016 --> 00:11:08.922
of the station is here.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1639-0
00:11:10.172 --> 00:11:12.002
And then obviously, if you look
at the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1680-0
00:11:13.132 --> 00:11:16.747
If you look at the response
spectrum, this acceleration

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1680-1
00:11:16.747 --> 00:11:20.944
spectrum looks terrible. This is
the 1G line and these things go

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1680-2
00:11:20.944 --> 00:11:24.948
up to 7 G that's a 5% damping
level. Obviously I do not think

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1680-3
00:11:24.948 --> 00:11:28.370
there is structure in the
strange can withstand this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1680-4
00:11:28.370 --> 00:11:28.822
motion.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-0
00:11:34.312 --> 00:11:38.072
These are the distribution of
the stations that recorded the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-1
00:11:38.072 --> 00:11:41.832
M7 Magnum 7.8 earthquake in PGA.
That was, I'm sure that you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-2
00:11:41.832 --> 00:11:45.037
don't see that clearly, but
those are the ones that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-3
00:11:45.037 --> 00:11:48.673
essentially follow the fault.
And over here you should red

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-4
00:11:48.673 --> 00:11:52.372
ones. Those are the ones that
you caught eye motion and the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-5
00:11:52.372 --> 00:11:56.070
same thing also this is the East
West distribution. This is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-6
00:11:56.070 --> 00:11:59.152
north-south distribution and
that's the east West

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-7
00:11:59.152 --> 00:12:03.035
distribution. These figures are
probably easier to understand.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1760-8
00:12:03.035 --> 00:12:04.022
That's just the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-0
00:12:04.452 --> 00:12:08.034
Uh, just the drawing contour
maps on the base of the peak

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-1
00:12:08.034 --> 00:12:11.988
values. This is the PGA values.
This is the PGA values. This is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-2
00:12:11.988 --> 00:12:15.818
this is NS direction. This is
direction and then what you see

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-3
00:12:15.818 --> 00:12:19.524
is that these are the real
killer peak acceleration values.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-4
00:12:19.524 --> 00:12:23.231
There are some values here and
here. This is just the first

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-5
00:12:23.231 --> 00:12:26.690
third cake. The second
earthquake took place on the 4th

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-6
00:12:26.690 --> 00:12:30.582
line here and then the we have
to look at the combined motion.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1834-7
00:12:30.582 --> 00:12:34.412
But obviously you cannot combine
the motion the acceleration.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1861-0
00:12:34.492 --> 00:12:38.055
I was here are lower obviously
from the secondary cake, but

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1861-1
00:12:38.055 --> 00:12:41.855
then again the structures do not
see that they see the combined

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1861-2
00:12:41.855 --> 00:12:43.162
action of two motions.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1904-0
00:12:45.242 --> 00:12:48.522
And these are for the velocities
when it comes to velocities,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1904-1
00:12:48.522 --> 00:12:51.749
even the killer velocities are
located here I will come. You

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1904-2
00:12:51.749 --> 00:12:54.871
know why? Why they are here?
Because essentially, starting

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1904-3
00:12:54.871 --> 00:12:58.257
from here, this whole there is a
valley and there's a big basin

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1904-4
00:12:58.257 --> 00:12:58.522
here.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1947-0
00:13:01.532 --> 00:13:05.879
While these figures I I gathered
from the ME report that I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1947-1
00:13:05.879 --> 00:13:10.226
schedule essentially mentioned
in the previous talk on the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1947-2
00:13:10.226 --> 00:13:14.867
subject at the USGS, and this
is, this is all. Well, let me do

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1947-3
00:13:14.867 --> 00:13:15.752
it this way.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/1955-0
00:13:17.162 --> 00:13:19.182
Yeah, this is this is buratto.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-0
00:13:20.182 --> 00:13:24.619
At your nation relationship and
this is The Chew Youngs and then

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-1
00:13:24.619 --> 00:13:28.442
what you see is that it's
essentially stays between the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-2
00:13:28.442 --> 00:13:32.469
plus and minus one. Standard
division levels here at these

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-3
00:13:32.469 --> 00:13:36.702
levels these values PGA values
exceed and may even exceed the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-4
00:13:36.702 --> 00:13:41.207
+2 standard deviation levels for
some reason after 100 kilometers

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-5
00:13:41.207 --> 00:13:45.440
they die down and go even go
reach even plus minus 2 standard

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-6
00:13:45.440 --> 00:13:49.399
deviation. I don't know the
reasons for that but I'm sure

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2027-7
00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:50.492
that it will be.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2033-0
00:13:50.732 --> 00:13:52.732
Yeah, eventually enlightened.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2044-0
00:13:55.262 --> 00:13:58.972
These are the uh. These are some
sample. Uh.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2073-0
00:14:00.072 --> 00:14:03.812
Record Spectra and their
compassion with the code base

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2073-1
00:14:03.812 --> 00:14:07.893
Spectra. What you see blue here
at the top? Those are those

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2073-2
00:14:07.893 --> 00:14:11.022
correspond to the MC Spectra in
the US codes.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-0
00:14:11.982 --> 00:14:16.069
And this should correspond to
2/3 of the MC Spectra in Turkish

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-1
00:14:16.069 --> 00:14:20.027
stores are associated with the
475 years, and those are even

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-2
00:14:20.027 --> 00:14:23.920
associated with lower return
periods. So what you see there

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-3
00:14:23.920 --> 00:14:27.748
in this record and well, at
least in this one, you can see

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-4
00:14:27.748 --> 00:14:31.901
that the recorded motion is is
pretty close to design motion in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-5
00:14:31.901 --> 00:14:35.923
short period change but in meet
period trains they they reach

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2141-6
00:14:35.923 --> 00:14:36.832
the MCC level.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-0
00:14:37.712 --> 00:14:41.043
Well, that depends on the
location always in other

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-1
00:14:41.043 --> 00:14:45.027
locations. If you look at it,
they even the this is the code

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-2
00:14:45.027 --> 00:14:49.012
based design level. The code
based design level. Essentially

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-3
00:14:49.012 --> 00:14:53.061
if you are dealing with if you
are with a structured 10 story

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-4
00:14:53.061 --> 00:14:56.981
high or you in 15 story high
then you exit the design basis

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-5
00:14:56.981 --> 00:15:01.226
ground motion by at least three
times. Those are always not easy

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2205-6
00:15:01.226 --> 00:15:04.362
to to be absorbed by the
structures themselves.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-0
00:15:06.022 --> 00:15:09.568
This figure I took from a
Japanese sources and this is the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-1
00:15:09.568 --> 00:15:13.354
spectral acceleration spectral,
the special curve on this axis

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-2
00:15:13.354 --> 00:15:16.480
you have the spectral
acceleration on this axis you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-3
00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:20.386
have the spectral displacement,
the synthetic meters. This is in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-4
00:15:20.386 --> 00:15:23.752
centimeters per second square
and this is drawn for 15%

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-5
00:15:23.752 --> 00:15:26.938
damping. Probably more
applicable to the I would say

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-6
00:15:26.938 --> 00:15:30.484
the isolated structures and then
what you see here is that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-7
00:15:30.484 --> 00:15:34.210
especially this record is that
the ones that are colored this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2297-8
00:15:34.210 --> 00:15:34.992
one this one.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2301-0
00:15:35.212 --> 00:15:35.852
This one.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-0
00:15:36.812 --> 00:15:40.580
Are taken from the torture
quakes, all others late to the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-1
00:15:40.580 --> 00:15:44.738
more Japanese data, so they just
want to make a comparison for,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-2
00:15:44.738 --> 00:15:48.960
for example, this is from covert
gate. And the interesting thing

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-3
00:15:48.960 --> 00:15:53.053
is this one. If you look at this
one, it seems that this is 1.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-4
00:15:53.053 --> 00:15:57.146
This is 2 second probably if you
go like this, this may be 2.5

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-5
00:15:57.146 --> 00:16:01.174
second line at 2.5 seconds you
are dealing with the base year

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-6
00:16:01.174 --> 00:16:05.072
coefficient of 1.8 and the
displacement of about well close

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2399-7
00:16:05.072 --> 00:16:06.242
to 90 centimeters.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2417-0
00:16:06.712 --> 00:16:09.977
If you take this one, the base,
your coefficient is all .6 again

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2417-1
00:16:09.977 --> 00:16:12.892
high and they are dealing with
this space went off about.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2448-0
00:16:13.472 --> 00:16:17.362
Ohh well. Closed under than 35
centimeters per second. What

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2448-1
00:16:17.362 --> 00:16:20.928
they intend to show that it
would be very difficult or

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2448-2
00:16:20.928 --> 00:16:24.558
costly to design an isolated
structure even under those

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2448-3
00:16:24.558 --> 00:16:25.272
conditions.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-0
00:16:27.412 --> 00:16:31.580
These are near fault records,
not very near fault, but I would

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-1
00:16:31.580 --> 00:16:35.616
say near fault and the quasi
near fault I would say. And the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-2
00:16:35.616 --> 00:16:39.652
interesting thing is that they
Spectra response Spectra look

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-3
00:16:39.652 --> 00:16:43.556
pretty the same are almost
similar to each other with some

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-4
00:16:43.556 --> 00:16:47.791
difference always, but it gives
a general shape. This is a very

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-5
00:16:47.791 --> 00:16:51.761
broadband record. It shows that
almost starting probable .1

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2540-6
00:16:51.761 --> 00:16:56.062
second even I say 0.08 second or
oh .07 second and up to almost.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2550-0
00:16:56.602 --> 00:17:00.592
Are two seconds. It is flat at
1G range.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2610-0
00:17:01.662 --> 00:17:05.335
So that's a very broad band
jacket and the same thing holds

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2610-1
00:17:05.335 --> 00:17:09.008
for the displacement Spectra
displacement Spectra. What you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2610-2
00:17:09.008 --> 00:17:12.926
see is that starting from about
2 seconds while I draw it to up

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2610-3
00:17:12.926 --> 00:17:16.660
to 30 seconds, but starting
about 2 seconds and you can take

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2610-4
00:17:16.660 --> 00:17:20.272
it probably up to 20 seconds, it
follows the 1 meter line.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2613-0
00:17:21.602 --> 00:17:22.312
Well, the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2656-0
00:17:23.392 --> 00:17:27.231
Displacement spectral which is
very important for displacement

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2656-1
00:17:27.231 --> 00:17:30.827
based design and there are
several attempts of plotting it

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2656-2
00:17:30.827 --> 00:17:34.545
on the base of the available
data so far and for our problem

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2656-3
00:17:34.545 --> 00:17:38.080
this is from Akkadian bomber.
What is shows that even for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2656-4
00:17:38.080 --> 00:17:38.812
magnitude 8.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2694-0
00:17:39.692 --> 00:17:44.007
At the at level of two seconds,
it's only about less than about

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2694-1
00:17:44.007 --> 00:17:47.513
20 centimeters, or 15
centimeters, and then at high

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2694-2
00:17:47.513 --> 00:17:51.222
periods this goes about four
second. It only is about.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-0
00:17:52.382 --> 00:17:56.516
Well, 30 centimeters, which is
always the does not follow what

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-1
00:17:56.516 --> 00:18:00.848
we have observed. While the this
is from Campbell and Bozorg Mia,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-2
00:18:00.848 --> 00:18:04.654
that's that. That's pretty
pretty better for magnitude 8.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-3
00:18:04.654 --> 00:18:08.657
It costs to 1 meter again at
this level, but at the level of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-4
00:18:08.657 --> 00:18:12.726
two seconds it's again quite low
value. Those are more recent

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-5
00:18:12.726 --> 00:18:16.401
study from 2020 to why Chinese
and then while they they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-6
00:18:16.401 --> 00:18:20.536
predictions is pretty close to
the capital and Bozorg Mia what

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2765-7
00:18:20.536 --> 00:18:21.652
I'm here is that.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2791-0
00:18:21.732 --> 00:18:25.157
The space in the spectral shape
for all will change after the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2791-1
00:18:25.157 --> 00:18:28.362
shortcake. Most of the for the
near fault Nearfield data.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2799-0
00:18:30.142 --> 00:18:31.452
The jaculator pauses.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2798-0
00:18:30.392 --> 00:18:31.282
Hi, Mustafa.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2808-0
00:18:32.232 --> 00:18:32.902
Pictures, man.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2825-0
00:18:32.262 --> 00:18:35.396
Sorry, just a minor
interruption. Is it possible at

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2825-1
00:18:35.396 --> 00:18:38.712
all to remove the menu from the
bottom of your screen?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2834-0
00:18:39.882 --> 00:18:41.042
Some people think it's a.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2832-0
00:18:39.932 --> 00:18:40.552
How do you do?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2843-0
00:18:41.462 --> 00:18:44.382
How do you like? How do I do
that?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2840-0
00:18:41.732 --> 00:18:42.592
If if it's.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2860-0
00:18:45.812 --> 00:18:49.932
If it's too difficult, it's not
an issue, but like yeah.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2853-0
00:18:48.142 --> 00:18:48.582
OK.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2865-0
00:18:49.952 --> 00:18:52.292
Well, let me see what I can do.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2873-0
00:18:59.472 --> 00:19:00.872
Would it be easier now to see?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2875-0
00:19:04.372 --> 00:19:04.852
Uh.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2884-0
00:19:06.682 --> 00:19:09.152
Yeah, that works, but if it's.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2883-0
00:19:08.282 --> 00:19:08.662
OK.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2895-0
00:19:09.922 --> 00:19:12.149
I don't know how to how to do
that. You know, I'm sure there's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2895-1
00:19:12.149 --> 00:19:12.962
a way of doing it, but.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2908-0
00:19:15.022 --> 00:19:18.922
OK. Well, I'll, I'll continue
this way. Well, in several of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2908-1
00:19:18.922 --> 00:19:20.222
the velocity traces.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2913-0
00:19:21.022 --> 00:19:21.842
The pulses.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2945-0
00:19:23.502 --> 00:19:27.213
The fossils can be seen very
well, and this the the post

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2945-1
00:19:27.213 --> 00:19:31.120
period. This is about four
seconds. This is about 2 second.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/2945-2
00:19:31.120 --> 00:19:34.832
It's about 5 seconds. This about
again I think 5 second.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3013-0
00:19:36.112 --> 00:19:40.285
I I'm sure more more studies
would be needed on the on on

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3013-1
00:19:40.285 --> 00:19:44.890
sorting out the the directivity
FX and then the seeing how they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3013-2
00:19:44.890 --> 00:19:48.991
relate, how they both the
magnitude and the and the site

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3013-3
00:19:48.991 --> 00:19:53.453
conditions relate to the both
the amplitude and the period of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3013-4
00:19:53.453 --> 00:19:57.842
this process. So there's I'm
sure lots of people who work on

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3013-5
00:19:57.842 --> 00:19:58.202
that.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3024-0
00:20:00.052 --> 00:20:03.382
The other thing that we have
noticed is the basin.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3044-0
00:20:04.172 --> 00:20:07.937
That is, the basin in hotel is
called Ohmic Bayesian also.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3044-1
00:20:07.937 --> 00:20:09.852
Well, that's the basin itself.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3087-0
00:20:10.572 --> 00:20:13.994
The the area that's heavily
settled in this area and then

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3087-1
00:20:13.994 --> 00:20:17.476
you can see the these are the
buildings over there and the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3087-2
00:20:17.476 --> 00:20:20.958
color code indicates the one
that are collapsed or heavily

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3087-3
00:20:20.958 --> 00:20:23.142
damaged. The ones that are in
there.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3109-0
00:20:23.992 --> 00:20:27.074
In red, here are the ones that
have collapsed and then you can

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3109-1
00:20:27.074 --> 00:20:30.156
see the most of settlement here
that coincide with this region

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3109-2
00:20:30.156 --> 00:20:31.722
that coincides with this region.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3165-0
00:20:32.872 --> 00:20:36.107
There's a fault line here. I
don't know if there's a fault or

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3165-1
00:20:36.107 --> 00:20:39.238
not, but that's the base in
itself. The dimensions of. It's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3165-2
00:20:39.238 --> 00:20:42.264
probably in this direction of
our 30 kilometers, and this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3165-3
00:20:42.264 --> 00:20:45.291
direction about probably, I
would say 15 kilometers. So I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3165-4
00:20:45.291 --> 00:20:48.526
think in dimension wise, I don't
know, that's sure, but I was

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3165-5
00:20:48.526 --> 00:20:51.762
told that dimension wise it's
resembles that of the LA Basin.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3177-0
00:20:53.542 --> 00:20:57.356
And then these are a preliminary
study of the amplification of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3177-1
00:20:57.356 --> 00:20:57.962
the basin.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-0
00:20:59.052 --> 00:21:02.980
These stations, while this one
and this one, are the stations

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-1
00:21:02.980 --> 00:21:07.034
that are located on stiff soils,
and these two stations are the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-2
00:21:07.034 --> 00:21:10.772
ones that are located in the
basin and that's the transfer

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-3
00:21:10.772 --> 00:21:14.764
function between them. What we
see is that, well, obviously it

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-4
00:21:14.764 --> 00:21:18.819
varies a lot, but on the average
there's about amplification of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-5
00:21:18.819 --> 00:21:22.303
what 2 or 2.5 and for a wide
range of periods starting

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-6
00:21:22.303 --> 00:21:26.295
probably about one second up to
10 seconds. And it can even go

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3253-7
00:21:26.295 --> 00:21:26.802
further.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3255-0
00:21:27.712 --> 00:21:28.252
They.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3320-0
00:21:29.092 --> 00:21:33.296
We do not know much about the
the details of the basin in the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3320-1
00:21:33.296 --> 00:21:37.296
sort of, for example, if you
want to compete with with the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3320-2
00:21:37.296 --> 00:21:41.432
campaign and bozorgh now we have
to deal with the sheer wave

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3320-3
00:21:41.432 --> 00:21:45.636
velocities that 2.5 kilometers
and we don't know it, but that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3320-4
00:21:45.636 --> 00:21:49.840
what it shows that the results
are quite similar to the basin

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3320-5
00:21:49.840 --> 00:21:53.502
application factors given by
campland bozarth Mia if.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-0
00:21:54.312 --> 00:21:58.241
Is that 2.5 is within 3.5 and
4.5 kilometer. There will be

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-1
00:21:58.241 --> 00:22:02.370
several projects of this. I'm
sure that will end that will be

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-2
00:22:02.370 --> 00:22:06.699
sold out and then we really need
those data. The reason being is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-3
00:22:06.699 --> 00:22:10.895
that in our next version of the
earthquake, hazard maps that's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-4
00:22:10.895 --> 00:22:15.091
associated with the code we want
to include the basins as well

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-5
00:22:15.091 --> 00:22:19.220
because the the older structures
located on this patient have

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-6
00:22:19.220 --> 00:22:23.083
received ground motion that
exceeds at least twice of the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3398-7
00:22:23.083 --> 00:22:24.282
code based levels.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3464-0
00:22:27.762 --> 00:22:31.473
While this is the looking uh to
Antarctica basin from the uh

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3464-1
00:22:31.473 --> 00:22:35.124
looking S essentially well, this
is the real work that goes

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3464-2
00:22:35.124 --> 00:22:38.958
through it and then well, the
dev is cleaned so that all these

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3464-3
00:22:38.958 --> 00:22:42.426
areas essentially building
collapse and there is cleaned

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3464-4
00:22:42.426 --> 00:22:46.381
and that's the amount of part I
think the fault passes somewhere

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3464-5
00:22:46.381 --> 00:22:49.302
here, but not much damage on the
mountain side.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3471-0
00:22:53.012 --> 00:22:55.092
Well, the findings on strong
ground motion.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3508-0
00:22:56.062 --> 00:22:59.471
Most often my already explained,
but the record PJ's are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3508-1
00:22:59.471 --> 00:23:03.178
generally in agreement to Nas
two, except that velocities are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3508-2
00:23:03.178 --> 00:23:07.066
higher excitation Spectra in the
near field conditions generally

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3508-3
00:23:07.066 --> 00:23:08.382
exceed the code based.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3515-0
00:23:09.142 --> 00:23:10.832
Design basis ground motion.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3529-0
00:23:12.092 --> 00:23:15.392
And in some cases, even the MC
associate called based Spectrum.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3562-0
00:23:17.352 --> 00:23:20.890
Well, this is to be expected
obviously, but the recorded

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3562-1
00:23:20.890 --> 00:23:24.676
vertical acceleration of the,
especially at near fault sites

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3562-2
00:23:24.676 --> 00:23:28.711
and soft soils are very high and
they even exceed the horizontal

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3562-3
00:23:28.711 --> 00:23:29.022
pgas.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3588-0
00:23:30.622 --> 00:23:33.717
And pass like motion is clearly
visible in selective versus

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3588-1
00:23:33.717 --> 00:23:36.348
traces. The near fault
directivity features in the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3588-2
00:23:36.348 --> 00:23:39.392
respondent in recorded promotion
needs to be investigated.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-0
00:23:40.752 --> 00:23:44.120
The effects of the army hottie
basin are evident, and then the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-1
00:23:44.120 --> 00:23:47.435
national earthquake hazard maps
need to modify through effect

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-2
00:23:47.435 --> 00:23:50.697
increased ground motion levels
associated with the important

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-3
00:23:50.697 --> 00:23:54.172
basins in this content. Not only
this basin, but there are other

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-4
00:23:54.172 --> 00:23:57.594
basins as well. The other thing
is that we may need to wait for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-5
00:23:57.594 --> 00:24:00.588
sorting out some of the
inconsistencies associated with

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-6
00:24:00.588 --> 00:24:03.903
this strong motion data that
will take some time. Probably. I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-7
00:24:03.903 --> 00:24:07.272
don't think it will affect all
of the records or those general

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3673-8
00:24:07.272 --> 00:24:09.732
findings, but some some of the
records maybe.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3682-0
00:24:10.622 --> 00:24:14.232
Uh differ from the what we have
before.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3698-0
00:24:16.502 --> 00:24:19.962
Now coming to this structural
response, this is the isothermal

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3698-1
00:24:19.962 --> 00:24:20.182
map.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3752-0
00:24:20.922 --> 00:24:24.883
Of the earthquake, the yellow
traces here indicate the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3752-1
00:24:24.883 --> 00:24:28.629
intense. The seven. Well,
intense. The seven is the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3752-2
00:24:28.629 --> 00:24:32.447
intensity that essentially the
damage starts to more

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3752-3
00:24:32.447 --> 00:24:36.913
structures. And this distance is
under the kilometers. So the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3752-4
00:24:36.913 --> 00:24:41.163
thickness of this albatross,
sometimes 70 kilometers. This

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3752-5
00:24:41.163 --> 00:24:43.252
dimension approached about 3.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3779-0
00:24:43.342 --> 00:24:47.789
Uh, 300 kilometers and that time
mentioned about, I would say 100

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3779-1
00:24:47.789 --> 00:24:52.033
kilometer. So we are talking of
an area about 400 kilometer by

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3779-2
00:24:52.033 --> 00:24:54.392
70 kilometer that received
damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3842-0
00:24:56.002 --> 00:24:59.409
Two parts are received heavy
damage. That's the Kahraman

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3842-1
00:24:59.409 --> 00:25:02.937
marriage part. The reason?
Reason being that it's affected

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3842-2
00:25:02.937 --> 00:25:06.643
by these two events, both of
them affected the always the the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3842-3
00:25:06.643 --> 00:25:10.350
performance of structures here
and then this is the area that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3842-4
00:25:10.350 --> 00:25:13.997
we have that are talking about
the basin. So those two areas

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3842-5
00:25:13.997 --> 00:25:15.372
received damage damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3864-0
00:25:16.052 --> 00:25:20.275
The maximum intensity I would
believe in the vicinity of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3864-1
00:25:20.275 --> 00:25:23.462
probably 11 at locations near to
defaults.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3921-0
00:25:24.172 --> 00:25:27.506
The average investor intensity I
would imagine to be about

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3921-1
00:25:27.506 --> 00:25:31.066
between 9:00 and 10:00 in most
of these several damaged areas.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3921-2
00:25:31.066 --> 00:25:34.513
Obviously there are areas that
are less intensive than this,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3921-3
00:25:34.513 --> 00:25:37.904
but especially in this and this
area is the intensities are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3921-4
00:25:37.904 --> 00:25:41.182
close to between 9:00 and 10:00,
the average intensities.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3923-0
00:25:42.002 --> 00:25:42.532
Well.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3927-0
00:25:45.042 --> 00:25:46.432
All threes data.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3953-0
00:25:47.532 --> 00:25:51.191
Tells us as Sasha, what happens
in those intensities? This is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3953-1
00:25:51.191 --> 00:25:54.969
the empirical building fragility
model empirical just the field

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3953-2
00:25:54.969 --> 00:25:57.862
data from the 1999 cordial
earthquake in Turkey.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3955-0
00:25:58.992 --> 00:25:59.442
Now.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3962-0
00:26:00.582 --> 00:26:03.587
Well, this is the total
collapse. This is the heavy

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3962-1
00:26:03.587 --> 00:26:03.992
damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3982-0
00:26:04.472 --> 00:26:08.079
Uh, for most cases, when we say
damaged buildings or buildings

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3982-1
00:26:08.079 --> 00:26:11.744
that cannot be used afterwards,
or to demolish the include both

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/3982-2
00:26:11.744 --> 00:26:12.202
of them.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-0
00:26:13.292 --> 00:26:17.219
So for example, if you go to
intensive 10, what we see here

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-1
00:26:17.219 --> 00:26:21.474
is that while that combines the
D5 damage 5 and the damage four,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-2
00:26:21.474 --> 00:26:25.663
what we see is about this level
and that cost about while close

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-3
00:26:25.663 --> 00:26:29.525
to 3540% of the damage of the
buildings damaged either the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-4
00:26:29.525 --> 00:26:33.518
shape or the shape. Well, if you
go to intents and nine that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-5
00:26:33.518 --> 00:26:37.380
drops down there about 14
percent, 15 maybe 16%. And those

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-6
00:26:37.380 --> 00:26:41.503
are essentially the values that
you obtain in the field in the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4065-7
00:26:41.503 --> 00:26:42.682
most general term.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4081-0
00:26:42.902 --> 00:26:46.047
So it's it's essential that you
that you have seen this before,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4081-1
00:26:46.047 --> 00:26:47.472
that not really much changed.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4104-0
00:26:48.252 --> 00:26:51.500
With the exception that the
ground motion level on this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4104-1
00:26:51.500 --> 00:26:55.154
earthquake was at least half of
that we obtained in the recent

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4104-2
00:26:55.154 --> 00:26:55.792
earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4110-0
00:26:58.302 --> 00:26:59.952
These are some interesting
pictures.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4126-0
00:27:01.422 --> 00:27:05.604
Taken at the same direction and
same location in the city of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4126-1
00:27:05.604 --> 00:27:07.182
Kahramanmaras, this is.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4133-0
00:27:07.922 --> 00:27:09.912
Prior to the earthquake, this
after the earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-0
00:27:10.722 --> 00:27:13.473
So you can't see that something
you know, nice looking

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-1
00:27:13.473 --> 00:27:16.074
buildings, streets and
everything. And this is what

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-2
00:27:16.074 --> 00:27:18.926
took place after those cake.
Well, probably you see this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-3
00:27:18.926 --> 00:27:21.777
building and this building
standing and this, this, this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-4
00:27:21.777 --> 00:27:24.779
building and this building
standing maybe this one and this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-5
00:27:24.779 --> 00:27:27.580
one. But that's about is like
the atomic bomb after the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4191-6
00:27:27.580 --> 00:27:30.082
Hiroshima or something very
similar to that view.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4222-0
00:27:30.942 --> 00:27:34.332
And then this is another view
from the city. Well, this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4222-1
00:27:34.332 --> 00:27:38.086
building will be substance and
these features stand here, but

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4222-2
00:27:38.086 --> 00:27:41.719
the most of the buildings in
this part have collapsed or in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4222-3
00:27:41.719 --> 00:27:43.052
the verge of collapse.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4231-0
00:27:45.492 --> 00:27:47.862
Thus another 2 views from the
city.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4252-0
00:27:48.732 --> 00:27:52.308
Well, this building I think
stands still stands here. And

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4252-1
00:27:52.308 --> 00:27:56.130
then these three stand and this
one, this one stands. But the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4252-2
00:27:56.130 --> 00:27:56.932
oldest group.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-0
00:27:58.132 --> 00:28:01.359
Just following down, it's
interesting that the while you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-1
00:28:01.359 --> 00:28:04.870
will see it later on though,
that the ones that fall down are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-2
00:28:04.870 --> 00:28:08.381
essential. The ones that line
the street. The reason being is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-3
00:28:08.381 --> 00:28:11.778
that they're the first floors
are all shops with the infill

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-4
00:28:11.778 --> 00:28:14.666
walls removed that are
essentially makes them soft

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-5
00:28:14.666 --> 00:28:18.403
story. And then while tarks them
for trainer and that's a similar

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-6
00:28:18.403 --> 00:28:21.857
picture taking from another
angle from the city that city is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4339-7
00:28:21.857 --> 00:28:24.972
preparing an album of this
because they had all these.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4361-0
00:28:25.782 --> 00:28:28.697
Pictures before and they have
taken the same pictures. After

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4361-1
00:28:28.697 --> 00:28:31.709
those cake in the same angle,
same thing and they're preparing

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4361-2
00:28:31.709 --> 00:28:32.522
an album on that.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4393-0
00:28:34.452 --> 00:28:38.760
These are from the Antakya, all
the Antioch, and then while from

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4393-1
00:28:38.760 --> 00:28:42.538
here I I think these are all the
basin effects that they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4393-2
00:28:42.538 --> 00:28:45.322
essentially collapse the very
bad manner.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4408-0
00:28:47.172 --> 00:28:50.768
And this is again from Antakya,
Antioch. You see building

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4408-1
00:28:50.768 --> 00:28:52.442
standing, but the rest are.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4416-0
00:28:53.142 --> 00:28:55.762
Have gone heavily and then
that's what we call the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4428-0
00:28:56.292 --> 00:28:59.752
Uh pancake type of collapse and
I will come to the you know why?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4433-0
00:29:02.492 --> 00:29:04.052
These are the statistics.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4460-0
00:29:04.852 --> 00:29:09.010
On the on the damage rates, as I
said, the two major areas of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4460-1
00:29:09.010 --> 00:29:13.370
damage is in kahramanmaras this
one and this is the basin affect

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4460-2
00:29:13.370 --> 00:29:14.242
us in hatyai.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4486-0
00:29:15.102 --> 00:29:18.340
The number of damaged buildings.
That means that all the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4486-1
00:29:18.340 --> 00:29:21.805
buildings from the light damage
to the heavy damage, in this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4486-2
00:29:21.805 --> 00:29:22.942
case about 107 to 2.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4496-0
00:29:24.022 --> 00:29:27.092
And the 44% of those are minor
damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4509-0
00:29:28.152 --> 00:29:32.712
6% are medium damage and 50% is
major damage to collapse.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4531-0
00:29:34.512 --> 00:29:39.227
And in Caramoan Marash, well,
the number of damaged buildings,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4531-1
00:29:39.227 --> 00:29:42.072
all sorts of damage is about
115,000.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4551-0
00:29:42.822 --> 00:29:47.652
About 58 of them are minor
damage, 6% medium damage, and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4551-1
00:29:47.652 --> 00:29:49.602
then the 3rd 6% damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4604-0
00:29:51.382 --> 00:29:55.897
So eight 887% of the buildings
with major damage to collapse

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4604-1
00:29:55.897 --> 00:30:00.413
were located in the essential
four cities over there or city

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4604-2
00:30:00.413 --> 00:30:05.077
centers. The interesting thing
for you to see here is that the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4604-3
00:30:05.077 --> 00:30:09.667
median damage is very low. I
mean, in, in, if you look at the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4604-4
00:30:09.667 --> 00:30:10.852
for example the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4613-0
00:30:11.552 --> 00:30:14.452
Uh. The fragility curves for,
you know, structures.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-0
00:30:15.732 --> 00:30:19.353
In several parts on the world,
you see that those figures would

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-1
00:30:19.353 --> 00:30:22.861
be close to each other. In this
case, the median them is very

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-2
00:30:22.861 --> 00:30:26.030
low. That shows the binary
nature of the damage. So the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-3
00:30:26.030 --> 00:30:29.481
building either stand or they
collapse. And the reason being

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-4
00:30:29.481 --> 00:30:32.593
is that they are brittle
structures. I mean, once they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-5
00:30:32.593 --> 00:30:35.988
ground motion actually certain
level they are gone. If it's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-6
00:30:35.988 --> 00:30:39.270
stays below that level, they
they you know, they can have

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-7
00:30:39.270 --> 00:30:42.892
minor damage, but every medium
damage is difficult in this case

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4694-8
00:30:42.892 --> 00:30:45.212
because that's not graduation of
damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4705-0
00:30:48.092 --> 00:30:51.902
Well, this could have been also
dot losses could have been also.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-0
00:30:52.562 --> 00:30:56.462
Could also be in the known
before. The reason being that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-1
00:30:56.462 --> 00:31:00.637
this has started that we have
made for the assessment of the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-2
00:31:00.637 --> 00:31:04.675
insurance premium or earthquake
insurance premium and this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-3
00:31:04.675 --> 00:31:08.575
essentially shows the average
building loss ratio on the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-4
00:31:08.575 --> 00:31:12.681
exposure to MC level ground
motion. OK, well, these are the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-5
00:31:12.681 --> 00:31:16.719
areas that we think of the
damage. And if you look at this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-6
00:31:16.719 --> 00:31:20.962
figure probably there's between
1.5 and 4.7. And then in this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4781-7
00:31:20.962 --> 00:31:21.852
area overall.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4796-0
00:31:22.532 --> 00:31:27.186
The damage is between 1.3 and
1.5. That means that that means

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4796-1
00:31:27.186 --> 00:31:27.562
that.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-0
00:31:29.222 --> 00:31:33.003
In, well, these are those are
sub provinces and for example in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-1
00:31:33.003 --> 00:31:36.725
any of these sub provinces the
the, the, the buildings, total

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-2
00:31:36.725 --> 00:31:40.386
buildings lost their 40% of
their value after the shortcake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-3
00:31:40.386 --> 00:31:43.747
I mean either damage or the
other things. So that's the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-4
00:31:43.747 --> 00:31:47.409
that's what we call the loss
ratio. But that could have been

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-5
00:31:47.409 --> 00:31:50.890
predicted obviously we cannot
predict the location of the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4861-6
00:31:50.890 --> 00:31:54.072
earthquake. But once it took
place and once we know.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4870-0
00:31:54.252 --> 00:31:57.792
Just size to because they've
predicted.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-0
00:31:59.412 --> 00:32:03.475
Well this I just added here to
to show you the the way that the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-1
00:32:03.475 --> 00:32:06.967
earthquake guys in building
design and construction in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-2
00:32:06.967 --> 00:32:10.777
Turkey is developed. The first
code was in 1940 and at that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-3
00:32:10.777 --> 00:32:14.713
time we just translated Italian
code and start using it. Then

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-4
00:32:14.713 --> 00:32:18.587
after major earthquakes that
have been changing the code and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-5
00:32:18.587 --> 00:32:21.698
these are the number of
buildings that are still

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4930-6
00:32:21.698 --> 00:32:23.222
existing with that code.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4992-0
00:32:25.102 --> 00:32:29.644
Then we have the 1999 earthquake
at this location, 1999

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4992-1
00:32:29.644 --> 00:32:34.348
earthquake. That was a major
earthquake. Then there was a

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4992-2
00:32:34.348 --> 00:32:39.458
change in the code and the the
code at that time appears to be

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4992-3
00:32:39.458 --> 00:32:44.162
199990961998 code. That was,
that was a code. And then we

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/4992-4
00:32:44.162 --> 00:32:49.272
have the 2007 code and then now
we are dealing with 2019 code.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-0
00:32:50.462 --> 00:32:54.486
I would call this area as the
low Code area that we end up

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-1
00:32:54.486 --> 00:32:58.784
with more spiritual structures
and this is the High Code area,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-2
00:32:58.784 --> 00:33:03.013
meaning that if the if the code
confirmed is pretty good, the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-3
00:33:03.013 --> 00:33:07.379
buildings are quite safe so the
The thing is that prior to 1996

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-4
00:33:07.379 --> 00:33:11.540
code which is here, the designer
was permitted to design non

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-5
00:33:11.540 --> 00:33:14.951
ductile enforced concrete
buildings and driven in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-6
00:33:14.951 --> 00:33:18.975
particular by cost design result
in non ductile reinforced

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5078-7
00:33:18.975 --> 00:33:20.272
concrete buildings.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5134-0
00:33:21.592 --> 00:33:26.483
The 1996 code was similar to the
to the UBC 1997 code in the US

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5134-1
00:33:26.483 --> 00:33:31.298
and the 2019 code has similar
features to what ASC 716 and the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5134-2
00:33:31.298 --> 00:33:35.884
EA cause most on the ground
motion and the designers use is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5134-3
00:33:35.884 --> 00:33:37.872
very similar to the C 716.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5171-0
00:33:41.002 --> 00:33:44.962
Now this obviously is represents
the type of buildings that are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5171-1
00:33:44.962 --> 00:33:48.736
prone to damage whenever the
earthquake ground motion level.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5171-2
00:33:48.736 --> 00:33:52.510
Most acceleration of almost
level exceeds a certain level or

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5171-3
00:33:52.510 --> 00:33:53.872
some major earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5219-0
00:33:55.002 --> 00:33:59.230
And then that is a big issue.
You know, all over, I would say

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5219-1
00:33:59.230 --> 00:34:03.662
the the the part that we are in,
this is a map for the Southeast

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5219-2
00:34:03.662 --> 00:34:07.754
Europe. You see Italy here,
these are the Balkan countries,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5219-3
00:34:07.754 --> 00:34:11.641
Greece is here and then the
yellow indicates the the low

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5219-4
00:34:11.641 --> 00:34:11.982
code.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-0
00:34:13.082 --> 00:34:16.809
And the red indicates the High
Court. So it's if you can see

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-1
00:34:16.809 --> 00:34:20.719
easily that easier with 40% of
the buildings in Turkey today is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-2
00:34:20.719 --> 00:34:24.629
with respect to high code, but
about 60% with respect to local,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-3
00:34:24.629 --> 00:34:28.173
that means that if such an
earthquake happens anywhere in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-4
00:34:28.173 --> 00:34:31.961
the world, anywhere in Turkey,
we will have huge damage. Well

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-5
00:34:31.961 --> 00:34:35.871
the same that ratio also exists
in for example in Italy. But in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-6
00:34:35.871 --> 00:34:39.354
Italy they know they have
earthquakes, say 66.5 network,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-7
00:34:39.354 --> 00:34:43.142
this size of earthquakes. So
that they won't experience and I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5316-8
00:34:43.142 --> 00:34:44.792
hope they won't experience.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5321-0
00:34:45.052 --> 00:34:45.922
That's sort of damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5323-0
00:34:48.462 --> 00:34:48.962
No.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-0
00:34:49.692 --> 00:34:53.798
This is the almost repeats what
I say is that the about 40% of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-1
00:34:53.798 --> 00:34:58.099
these buildings were built after
2000, so any utterance with this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-2
00:34:58.099 --> 00:35:01.358
code with 1998 code and then
with proper designer

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-3
00:35:01.358 --> 00:35:05.529
construction controls so you can
see the shape well this is the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-4
00:35:05.529 --> 00:35:09.440
space from like this lateral
load. If it is brutal whenever

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-5
00:35:09.440 --> 00:35:13.546
it reads a certain lateral load
level, it just collapses if it

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5404-6
00:35:13.546 --> 00:35:13.742
is.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5444-0
00:35:14.652 --> 00:35:19.011
Doctor Kyle, while it can start
yielding at lower lows, but then

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5444-1
00:35:19.011 --> 00:35:23.235
it can take huge displacements,
I can't stay. Well, this is an

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5444-2
00:35:23.235 --> 00:35:27.058
what you say from a virtual
building and that's what you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5444-3
00:35:27.058 --> 00:35:28.802
would obtain Dr. building.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5498-0
00:35:30.802 --> 00:35:34.261
And then this is. This shows
that this shows that the level

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5498-1
00:35:34.261 --> 00:35:38.009
of the ground motion the the the
buildings are built. That's the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5498-2
00:35:38.009 --> 00:35:41.469
design level on this design
level. But then then the amount

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5498-3
00:35:41.469 --> 00:35:45.217
of ground motion or that ground
motion acceleration in this case

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5498-4
00:35:45.217 --> 00:35:48.446
they received acceleration
Spectra in this case is that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5498-5
00:35:48.446 --> 00:35:50.292
these three times of that level.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5540-0
00:35:51.072 --> 00:35:55.199
So that shows that shows the one
of the reasons for the damage

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5540-1
00:35:55.199 --> 00:35:59.196
obviously doesn't show that the
why buildings have collapsed

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5540-2
00:35:59.196 --> 00:36:03.127
this way. They should have
collapsed in a way that does not

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5540-3
00:36:03.127 --> 00:36:07.255
allow so many casualties. But
then again, the rest is the poor

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5540-4
00:36:07.255 --> 00:36:09.352
building construction standards.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5558-0
00:36:12.152 --> 00:36:15.982
As I said the the the the damage
is selective and almost binary.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5558-1
00:36:15.982 --> 00:36:18.222
You can see it easily in this
figure.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-0
00:36:21.072 --> 00:36:24.663
And then the the worst type of
collapse is you have is the what

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-1
00:36:24.663 --> 00:36:27.805
we call the camp pancake
collapse, where the close file

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-2
00:36:27.805 --> 00:36:31.228
up on top of each other, which
is the worst type of collapse

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-3
00:36:31.228 --> 00:36:34.651
mechanism that led to excessive
casualties. If the buildings

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-4
00:36:34.651 --> 00:36:38.018
were built better, they would
have collapsed. What not this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-5
00:36:38.018 --> 00:36:41.385
way. And then they would have
left the people, you know, at

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-6
00:36:41.385 --> 00:36:44.808
least save their lives and the
search and rescue teams could

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-7
00:36:44.808 --> 00:36:48.399
have work properly. Well, such
collapses were also seen just to

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5649-8
00:36:48.399 --> 00:36:51.542
remind you, in Miami what this
gravity based structure.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5676-0
00:36:51.642 --> 00:36:55.226
Even the smallest problems in
the in the first floor, in the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5676-1
00:36:55.226 --> 00:36:58.341
foundation, whatever it is,
first least this type of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5676-2
00:36:58.341 --> 00:37:01.690
failure. And then when the
structure falls this way, the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5676-3
00:37:01.690 --> 00:37:02.102
impact.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5703-0
00:37:03.342 --> 00:37:07.159
Is disintegrates the structure
and have it called UPS in what

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5703-1
00:37:07.159 --> 00:37:10.915
we call the pain cake format.
This is the type of thing that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5703-2
00:37:10.915 --> 00:37:13.502
the the earth engine should try
to avoid.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5740-0
00:37:16.062 --> 00:37:19.029
These are some figures on the on
the standing buildings and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5740-1
00:37:19.029 --> 00:37:21.997
collapsing buildings. They while
the media is such that you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5740-2
00:37:21.997 --> 00:37:25.063
always see the collapsed ones,
but they're also ones that are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5740-3
00:37:25.063 --> 00:37:26.102
standing pretty well.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5772-0
00:37:28.012 --> 00:37:31.286
I'll just call them pretty fast.
I don't want to take too much

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5772-1
00:37:31.286 --> 00:37:34.560
time on this, but you can see
the distinction between the ones

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5772-2
00:37:34.560 --> 00:37:37.626
that are totally collapsed and
the standing and nothing in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5772-3
00:37:37.626 --> 00:37:38.562
between that much.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5802-0
00:37:51.532 --> 00:37:54.213
Well, that that was the
connection problems, obviously.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5802-1
00:37:54.213 --> 00:37:57.134
But in the collection you know,
although the structures were

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5802-2
00:37:57.134 --> 00:37:59.002
unused out to Turkey people, you
know.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-0
00:37:59.672 --> 00:38:03.152
Left a structure with their
lives. The they didn't lose

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-1
00:38:03.152 --> 00:38:07.130
their lives. And this is those
are. This is the this is rocking

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-2
00:38:07.130 --> 00:38:10.798
motion of the liquefaction and
those are the ones that are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-3
00:38:10.798 --> 00:38:14.589
settlement due to the softened
ground or little Vince ground

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-4
00:38:14.589 --> 00:38:18.629
that was that was heavily cases
of it. But I don't want to spend

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-5
00:38:18.629 --> 00:38:22.421
too much time on that. This is
an interesting structure that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-6
00:38:22.421 --> 00:38:26.212
was the 12 year old so-called
International Science has done

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-7
00:38:26.212 --> 00:38:29.320
the apartment complex and
Antakya that was a very

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5887-8
00:38:29.320 --> 00:38:29.942
expensive.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-0
00:38:30.032 --> 00:38:33.995
Complex that include everything,
all the luxuries and everything.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-1
00:38:33.995 --> 00:38:37.898
That's the that's the picture of
it. And that's when it's built.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-2
00:38:37.898 --> 00:38:41.440
The thing is that it has very
low aspect ratios, very high

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-3
00:38:41.440 --> 00:38:45.103
aspect ratios. Aspect ratio
means that this the total weight

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-4
00:38:45.103 --> 00:38:48.706
divided by this dimension. So
that was close to 6-7. That's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-5
00:38:48.706 --> 00:38:51.828
pretty high end well in
structural engineering that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-6
00:38:51.828 --> 00:38:55.551
means that if the earthquakes
acts in this direction, you end

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5953-7
00:38:55.551 --> 00:38:56.332
up with huge.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5968-0
00:38:57.592 --> 00:39:00.870
Accelerations in the columns
here due to the overturning

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/5968-1
00:39:00.870 --> 00:39:03.632
moment, and that's essentially
what took place.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6010-0
00:39:04.532 --> 00:39:08.301
And then you can see that the
these columns here essentially

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6010-1
00:39:08.301 --> 00:39:12.256
gone due to the failure due the
tension. That means that either

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6010-2
00:39:12.256 --> 00:39:16.087
the reinforced bars are must
splice properly or not connected

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6010-3
00:39:16.087 --> 00:39:18.312
properly and they just let go
here.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-0
00:39:19.162 --> 00:39:22.564
A good example of this could
have been in the parking lot

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-1
00:39:22.564 --> 00:39:26.319
structure in Northern earthquake
just reminds you it's the same

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-2
00:39:26.319 --> 00:39:29.781
type of collapse, except that
looked at. These are what we

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-3
00:39:29.781 --> 00:39:33.125
call the ductile type of
failure, so that even if people

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-4
00:39:33.125 --> 00:39:36.821
are in it, I'm sure they would.
They would have left it alive.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-5
00:39:36.821 --> 00:39:40.694
Not in this case. This is a very
sudden collapse. Very big impact

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6070-6
00:39:40.694 --> 00:39:41.222
collapse.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-0
00:39:46.652 --> 00:39:50.226
This the the some structures
performed excellent in this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-1
00:39:50.226 --> 00:39:54.365
earthquake and those are what we
call the tunnel form structures.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-2
00:39:54.365 --> 00:39:58.316
This is a tunnel form structure.
So these are the tunnel forms

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-3
00:39:58.316 --> 00:40:02.455
and then essentially concrete is
put in these forms and then it's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-4
00:40:02.455 --> 00:40:06.156
all over shear walls, shear,
shear walls about probably 12

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-5
00:40:06.156 --> 00:40:10.106
centimeter thickness. But this
building this building and this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6144-6
00:40:10.106 --> 00:40:11.612
huge complex in scandal.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6167-0
00:40:12.372 --> 00:40:15.868
Thus built by Golden begins is
there is no damage at all, and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6167-1
00:40:15.868 --> 00:40:18.462
this is a low cost housing
complex and about.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6204-0
00:40:19.102 --> 00:40:22.304
Ohh. 13,000 tunnel form
buildings. Most construct by

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6204-1
00:40:22.304 --> 00:40:26.232
government agencies for locals.
Housing performed very well. The

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6204-2
00:40:26.232 --> 00:40:30.221
building have shear walls or for
about 3% of polar area. Well the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6204-3
00:40:30.221 --> 00:40:33.182
history repeats itself. The same
thing in Chile.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6266-0
00:40:34.342 --> 00:40:38.619
In 2010, earthquake, which is
magnet 8.8, but this was always

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6266-1
00:40:38.619 --> 00:40:42.758
the ground motion was less than
what we have in the circuit

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6266-2
00:40:42.758 --> 00:40:46.760
because the the distance they
the the epicenter was about

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6266-3
00:40:46.760 --> 00:40:50.899
probably one of the kilometers
away from the city. But then

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6266-4
00:40:50.899 --> 00:40:55.177
again having all the 500 deaths
is is an issue that should be

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6266-5
00:40:55.177 --> 00:40:56.212
related to the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6325-0
00:40:56.272 --> 00:41:00.206
Uh to the use of the shiros
Sheila. Use heavy shear walls

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6325-1
00:41:00.206 --> 00:41:04.615
and that's that's a lifesaver in
such earthquakes. I'm sure that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6325-2
00:41:04.615 --> 00:41:09.024
in the in the new buildings that
are being built, the government

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6325-3
00:41:09.024 --> 00:41:12.687
wants to build them in what's
called this tunnel form

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6325-4
00:41:12.687 --> 00:41:16.554
structure, while doesn't allow
much of the architectural

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6325-5
00:41:16.554 --> 00:41:20.692
freedom for you. But then again,
it saves the peoples lives.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6374-0
00:41:23.412 --> 00:41:26.886
The schools on hospital
buildings performed quite well.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6374-1
00:41:26.886 --> 00:41:30.174
There were 20,000 educational
buildings, schools and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6374-2
00:41:30.174 --> 00:41:33.958
dormitories. What have only 3%
of them collapsed and then 7%

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6374-3
00:41:33.958 --> 00:41:37.494
were heavily damaged. So that's
compared to the password

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6374-4
00:41:37.494 --> 00:41:40.472
connection. Turkey. There's a
very big success.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6410-0
00:41:41.482 --> 00:41:45.384
And the four hospitals were now
functional or partly functional

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6410-1
00:41:45.384 --> 00:41:49.224
due to earthquake damage and 15%
of the healthcare facilities.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6410-2
00:41:49.224 --> 00:41:52.883
That includes the smallest
hospitals, the largest hospitals

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6410-3
00:41:52.883 --> 00:41:56.602
were nonfunctional, but mostly
due to non structural damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6452-0
00:41:57.312 --> 00:42:00.121
So those are the buildings,
those are the structural

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6452-1
00:42:00.121 --> 00:42:03.301
building, structural damage,
that's partial damage, but the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6452-2
00:42:03.301 --> 00:42:06.164
rest of the building is
standing. But it can, most of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6452-3
00:42:06.164 --> 00:42:09.503
them cannot be used due to the
what we call the non structural

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6452-4
00:42:09.503 --> 00:42:13.002
damage. More so far ceilings and
then cracks in the infill walls.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6462-0
00:42:15.152 --> 00:42:18.672
On the other hand, the in the
there are there were nine.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-0
00:42:19.372 --> 00:42:22.844
Isolate those without seismic
isolators with those. This is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-1
00:42:22.844 --> 00:42:25.622
the one that's under
construction. But even the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-2
00:42:25.622 --> 00:42:29.210
scaffolding, nothing is on this
one is fall down. This is the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-3
00:42:29.210 --> 00:42:32.625
this is a very large problem.
Second largest in the world.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-4
00:42:32.625 --> 00:42:36.040
Hospital isolate hospital. If
people live within the field

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-5
00:42:36.040 --> 00:42:39.628
earthquake and these are two.
This is the one that we started

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-6
00:42:39.628 --> 00:42:43.216
this in detail again. Isolated
hospitals. They functioned and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-7
00:42:43.216 --> 00:42:46.515
short people very well so that
the government has taking

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6552-8
00:42:46.515 --> 00:42:49.062
decision to make all the
hospitals isolate.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6560-0
00:42:49.282 --> 00:42:51.532
Sorted and they are continuing
with the decision.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6573-0
00:42:52.632 --> 00:42:55.311
And they have collected their
fruits of that decision in the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6573-1
00:42:55.311 --> 00:42:56.102
source making our.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6575-0
00:42:57.322 --> 00:42:57.572
The.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6624-0
00:42:58.772 --> 00:43:01.926
If it comes to infrastructure,
major infrastructure

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6624-1
00:43:01.926 --> 00:43:05.504
infrastructure performed very
well, about 150 Dems only to

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6624-2
00:43:05.504 --> 00:43:09.083
only one of them in Turkey
embankment them. But that's the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6624-3
00:43:09.083 --> 00:43:12.904
irrigation. Them has some cracks
and then in Syria there was a

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6624-4
00:43:12.904 --> 00:43:16.362
there was a 75 meter offering
them again similar damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6660-0
00:43:17.682 --> 00:43:20.848
The main hydrocarbon pipelines,
all we should they got damaged

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6660-1
00:43:20.848 --> 00:43:24.116
and the roads and railroads when
they're crossing the false. But

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6660-2
00:43:24.116 --> 00:43:27.232
apart from that they started
fine and the port of the scandal

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6660-3
00:43:27.232 --> 00:43:29.042
and has sustained the final
damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6694-0
00:43:30.332 --> 00:43:33.546
These are the pictures of it.
These are the major oil

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6694-1
00:43:33.546 --> 00:43:37.355
pipelines. They all come to here
for export purposes and all we

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6694-2
00:43:37.355 --> 00:43:41.165
should are cutting the the the
false here and then at the fault

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6694-3
00:43:41.165 --> 00:43:42.832
junctions that were damaged.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6713-0
00:43:43.522 --> 00:43:47.396
And this is for the dam and this
is the fire and the port, but

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6713-1
00:43:47.396 --> 00:43:48.872
that was put out easily.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6725-0
00:43:51.252 --> 00:43:55.180
Again, damage to highways and
railways and bridges were very

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6725-1
00:43:55.180 --> 00:43:55.502
good.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6774-0
00:43:56.222 --> 00:44:00.189
More than 1000 bridges, only 15
at slight damage, and the all

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6774-1
00:44:00.189 --> 00:44:04.092
the transport rules were operate
within two days. The reason

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6774-2
00:44:04.092 --> 00:44:07.675
being is that almost all the
bridges, while turkeys and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6774-3
00:44:07.675 --> 00:44:11.771
Ashton countries are almost all
the bridges, are built. Ashton,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6774-4
00:44:11.771 --> 00:44:15.546
Caltrans regulations under
supervision of our departments.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6774-5
00:44:15.546 --> 00:44:17.082
Well, I think that even.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6820-0
00:44:17.932 --> 00:44:21.579
Several bridges in in California
just collapsed, with ground

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6820-1
00:44:21.579 --> 00:44:25.286
motions less than what it is, so
the the the bridge is really

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6820-2
00:44:25.286 --> 00:44:28.934
performed very well. The Hotai
airport at some damage due to

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6820-3
00:44:28.934 --> 00:44:32.522
sprawl due to liquefaction and
tunnels performed very well.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-0
00:44:33.302 --> 00:44:37.189
These are some pictures of it.
Well, these are the raw damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-1
00:44:37.189 --> 00:44:40.706
So minings on the tunnels fall
down. Always when you are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-2
00:44:40.706 --> 00:44:44.779
passing Liquide areas, railroads
and having good shape while this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-3
00:44:44.779 --> 00:44:47.741
bridge collapsed due to its
small bridge due to

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-4
00:44:47.741 --> 00:44:51.628
liquefaction. But there's a new
one here. The parallel to this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-5
00:44:51.628 --> 00:44:55.701
one that didn't have any damage.
So they use this bridge. This is

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6895-6
00:44:55.701 --> 00:44:56.812
the repair of the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6903-0
00:44:57.832 --> 00:44:59.642
Around where they on the
airport.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6916-0
00:45:01.192 --> 00:45:03.781
There was some damage to the
industry, but most became

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6916-1
00:45:03.781 --> 00:45:05.382
operational after the
earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6963-0
00:45:06.432 --> 00:45:10.369
And the financial losses amount
about 100 billion. Well, that's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6963-1
00:45:10.369 --> 00:45:14.123
about 9% of the GDP of Turkey.
That's that's quite high. And

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6963-2
00:45:14.123 --> 00:45:17.753
the government plans to build
about 400, four, 100,000 new

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6963-3
00:45:17.753 --> 00:45:20.522
urban housing units within one
or two years.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6965-0
00:45:21.662 --> 00:45:21.952
The.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6970-0
00:45:22.752 --> 00:45:24.732
The earthquake insurance.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/6978-0
00:45:25.822 --> 00:45:27.462
Is about 5 billion damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7012-0
00:45:28.192 --> 00:45:32.071
The insurance penetration in
earthquake insurance penetration

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7012-1
00:45:32.071 --> 00:45:35.887
and there is about 55% which is
very high, well not high for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7012-2
00:45:35.887 --> 00:45:39.766
Turkey that areas for 100% but
55% is where I compared to the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7012-3
00:45:39.766 --> 00:45:40.142
world.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-0
00:45:40.912 --> 00:45:45.242
Then the total about the total
number of claims about reach

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-1
00:45:45.242 --> 00:45:49.861
about close to about 500,000 and
probably 3 billion damage will

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-2
00:45:49.861 --> 00:45:54.407
be paid. But the reason being is
that such low payment is that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-3
00:45:54.407 --> 00:45:58.521
only 5% collapse 6% every
dimension 9% medium damage and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-4
00:45:58.521 --> 00:46:02.924
8% minor damage. It's amazing
that the people that purchased

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-5
00:46:02.924 --> 00:46:07.543
the earthquake were most of the
people that live in pretty good

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7074-6
00:46:07.543 --> 00:46:08.842
houses, so that's.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7102-0
00:46:08.922 --> 00:46:12.122
So every indication of of such
an earthquake? Well, the reasons

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7102-1
00:46:12.122 --> 00:46:14.822
extent with damage, the
residential building and life

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7102-2
00:46:14.822 --> 00:46:18.122
flows I have spent over them. So
I'm running out of time. I don't

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7102-3
00:46:18.122 --> 00:46:19.972
want to spend too much time on
this.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7128-0
00:46:20.782 --> 00:46:24.241
So we are proposing additional
measures for newbuildings to the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7128-1
00:46:24.241 --> 00:46:27.377
government. One of them is the
institutional professional

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7128-2
00:46:27.377 --> 00:46:30.242
engineering. We don't have
professional engineering.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7134-0
00:46:31.612 --> 00:46:34.062
That is mandatory professional
liability insurance.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7181-0
00:46:34.792 --> 00:46:37.811
And the requirement of third
party liability insurance and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7181-1
00:46:37.811 --> 00:46:40.626
the provision of earthcare crisp
reports for all house

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7181-2
00:46:40.626 --> 00:46:44.004
transactions. Those are the ones
that are pushing the government.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7181-3
00:46:44.004 --> 00:46:47.075
Those are some of the more soft
measures, but I'm sure they

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7181-4
00:46:47.075 --> 00:46:49.532
would be very effective in the
code compliance.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7225-0
00:46:50.702 --> 00:46:54.689
For existing risky buildings,
there is an urban renewal

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7225-1
00:46:54.689 --> 00:46:59.174
program. It's going on, but it's
going on rather slow. So what

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7225-2
00:46:59.174 --> 00:47:03.446
you are pushing the government
is that we should work for a

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7225-3
00:47:03.446 --> 00:47:07.220
special retrofit campaign for
older buildings, build

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7225-4
00:47:07.220 --> 00:47:07.932
buildings.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-0
00:47:08.602 --> 00:47:12.408
But to do this what we need an
external rate of it. So without

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-1
00:47:12.408 --> 00:47:16.153
having the tenants to vacate
their apartments, that's the way

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-2
00:47:16.153 --> 00:47:19.959
to go. Otherwise, if you tell
the tenant vacate the apartment,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-3
00:47:19.959 --> 00:47:23.644
go somewhere else and get your
house retrofitted, moving, do

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-4
00:47:23.644 --> 00:47:27.269
all the repairs, do all the
finishes and everything. That's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-5
00:47:27.269 --> 00:47:31.196
a cumbersome project. So what we
are pushing all when to start a

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7311-6
00:47:31.196 --> 00:47:33.492
campaign like this and then the
last.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7334-0
00:47:36.142 --> 00:47:39.421
OK. The last one is that that
the option Turkish people thanks

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7334-1
00:47:39.421 --> 00:47:42.804
the at Los Angeles County search
and rescue team. They have done

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7334-2
00:47:42.804 --> 00:47:44.782
a great work and saved lots of
lives.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7353-0
00:47:45.592 --> 00:47:48.254
So that concludes my
presentation and thank you for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7353-1
00:47:48.254 --> 00:47:51.122
listening. I I tried to be as
fast as I can. Thank you.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7364-0
00:47:56.342 --> 00:47:58.172
I'll take you, Missoula, for.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7365-0
00:47:56.802 --> 00:47:58.472
OK. Thank you. With silver for.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7376-0
00:48:00.052 --> 00:48:02.442
Thank you for really great.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7377-0
00:48:00.442 --> 00:48:02.542
Thank you for really great.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7415-0
00:48:03.252 --> 00:48:08.205
Uh, summary of everything. Every
subject that we could have

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7383-0
00:48:04.132 --> 00:48:04.472
Summary.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7415-1
00:48:08.205 --> 00:48:13.241
imagined. So I think that that
was a that gave us additional

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7415-2
00:48:13.241 --> 00:48:18.442
information that we didn't know.
So thank you for taking time.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7432-0
00:48:19.272 --> 00:48:23.991
From your visit to San Francisco
Bay area and doing this seminar,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7432-1
00:48:23.991 --> 00:48:25.422
I really appreciate.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7450-0
00:48:24.922 --> 00:48:27.521
Well, thank you. I could have
done the same thing from

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7450-1
00:48:27.521 --> 00:48:30.594
Istanbul, but turned out that I
had to do it from San Francisco,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7450-2
00:48:30.594 --> 00:48:31.492
but that's alright.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7463-0
00:48:33.012 --> 00:48:37.123
Well, you know, that's the way
that we could arrange it. So

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7462-0
00:48:36.982 --> 00:48:37.392
Yes.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7463-1
00:48:37.123 --> 00:48:37.672
tell me.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7468-0
00:48:38.272 --> 00:48:39.002
That's all right.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7477-0
00:48:44.662 --> 00:48:48.302
Evan, do you want to conduct the
question session?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7487-0
00:48:52.662 --> 00:48:54.722
Yeah. Do we have any questions
from the audience?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7505-0
00:49:06.632 --> 00:49:07.992
I saw Tom had his hand up.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7527-0
00:49:06.992 --> 00:49:11.925
That's that's OK. I have. I have
one question maybe well, Tom

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7527-1
00:49:11.925 --> 00:49:17.097
Hanks said that his hand up, so
maybe he should ask first. After

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7527-2
00:49:17.097 --> 00:49:18.052
that I will.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7529-0
00:49:18.772 --> 00:49:19.082
Umm.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7540-0
00:49:33.522 --> 00:49:36.022
Tom, do you wanna unmute
yourself? Are you unmute?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7546-0
00:49:41.332 --> 00:49:43.102
Since the Mexico City
earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7561-0
00:49:44.642 --> 00:49:48.392
I've been concerned about how
many people really died in in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7561-1
00:49:48.392 --> 00:49:49.392
that earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7567-0
00:49:50.082 --> 00:49:52.962
Or this earthquake when?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7581-0
00:49:53.712 --> 00:49:59.082
You say 260,000 people who are
buildings have been.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7588-0
00:49:59.892 --> 00:50:01.572
Damaged her collapse.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7592-0
00:50:02.372 --> 00:50:03.402
That's only.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7623-0
00:50:05.932 --> 00:50:10.576
One person for every five
buildings, which sort of seems

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7623-1
00:50:10.576 --> 00:50:15.302
like an underestimate. So are
the number of of fatalities

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7623-2
00:50:15.302 --> 00:50:20.353
based solely on body counts or
on missing people who are. How

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7623-3
00:50:20.353 --> 00:50:21.902
do you reckon that?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7626-0
00:50:23.582 --> 00:50:24.282
All the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7682-0
00:50:25.742 --> 00:50:29.698
That number is the cumulative
number. That's. That's what you

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7682-1
00:50:29.698 --> 00:50:33.462
have achieved after so many
aftershocks and also after the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7682-2
00:50:33.462 --> 00:50:37.163
first earthquake. Well, the
number of collapsed buildings

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7682-3
00:50:37.163 --> 00:50:41.247
was about 6-7 thousand people 6
and 7000. But the after 9 hours

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7682-4
00:50:41.247 --> 00:50:45.012
there was another cake. But by
that time, people were out.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7711-0
00:50:46.382 --> 00:50:49.567
So they didn't really get
killed, and the most of the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7711-1
00:50:49.567 --> 00:50:52.871
numbers just added up because
aftershocks took down the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7711-2
00:50:52.871 --> 00:50:55.762
buildings. But the there were no
people in them.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7725-0
00:50:57.622 --> 00:51:02.927
OK. So you you feel that that
50,000 is is a reliable

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7725-1
00:51:02.927 --> 00:51:03.812
estimate?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7744-0
00:51:03.882 --> 00:51:06.814
You may be. I mean it. It can
increase, say probably you know

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7744-1
00:51:06.814 --> 00:51:09.322
10%, but that's about it. That's
what I think, yeah.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7748-0
00:51:09.892 --> 00:51:11.062
OK. Thank you.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7750-0
00:51:11.442 --> 00:51:11.822
Sure.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7757-0
00:51:17.212 --> 00:51:19.242
OK. Yeah. Can I ask you a
question?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7765-0
00:51:21.342 --> 00:51:25.272
Uh, I think Mustafa, one of the
things that.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7769-0
00:51:26.282 --> 00:51:28.052
I at least heard.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7790-0
00:51:29.622 --> 00:51:35.975
That uh, that I was just leaving
Turkey. I I was ever for two

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7790-1
00:51:35.975 --> 00:51:37.512
weeks at least.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7795-0
00:51:38.302 --> 00:51:40.032
Government officials were.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7816-0
00:51:41.712 --> 00:51:45.997
Making statements which were
quite positive. I thought that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7816-1
00:51:45.997 --> 00:51:50.282
they would now going to listen
to academicians and experts.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7825-0
00:51:51.312 --> 00:51:54.762
Uh, do you feel that that's
being?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7832-0
00:51:57.512 --> 00:52:00.102
Uh, don't know at the moment.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-0
00:52:01.922 --> 00:52:05.147
Mama Tom in the academicians and
experts needs to qualify. You

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-1
00:52:05.147 --> 00:52:08.117
know some of them, you know,
stay at the back and the two

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-2
00:52:08.117 --> 00:52:11.138
levels I guess of the level they
cannot even differentiate

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-3
00:52:11.138 --> 00:52:14.108
between the intensities and
magnitudes. So I I don't know

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-4
00:52:14.108 --> 00:52:17.334
how will that go. They form the
committee and a member of that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-5
00:52:17.334 --> 00:52:20.406
committee and I'm pushing for
the stuff that I've told you.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-6
00:52:20.406 --> 00:52:23.120
But they are, you know,
especially with professional

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-7
00:52:23.120 --> 00:52:26.500
engineering. You know they don't
want to take decisions that this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7932-8
00:52:26.500 --> 00:52:27.012
they just.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7976-0
00:52:27.652 --> 00:52:31.127
Just uh, you know, a month
before the elections because,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7976-1
00:52:31.127 --> 00:52:34.907
you know, I'm sure that that
they may have some ramifications

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7976-2
00:52:34.907 --> 00:52:38.748
of that, but I'm sure that the
several things will be done and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7976-3
00:52:38.748 --> 00:52:42.467
that we are pushing very, very
deeply for licensed engineers

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/7976-4
00:52:42.467 --> 00:52:44.662
and professional engineers and
the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-0
00:52:44.802 --> 00:52:48.605
And the insurance with that, the
liability insurance and those

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-1
00:52:48.605 --> 00:52:52.529
are soft measures. But I'm sure
that they will add a lot because

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-2
00:52:52.529 --> 00:52:55.668
the what is clear that the
buildings that are built

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-3
00:52:55.668 --> 00:52:59.049
properly can withstand the
earthquake and the the build

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-4
00:52:59.049 --> 00:53:02.611
properly means that they are
properly designed. That's the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-5
00:53:02.611 --> 00:53:06.414
most important thing because the
current control system cannot

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-6
00:53:06.414 --> 00:53:09.674
check the designs. It's
difficult, check the designs,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-7
00:53:09.674 --> 00:53:12.995
but they can check the
construction. So what we should

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8066-8
00:53:12.995 --> 00:53:15.772
do go after our think having a
proper design.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8078-0
00:53:16.112 --> 00:53:18.382
That follows the strictly the
code itself.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8087-0
00:53:21.602 --> 00:53:24.692
Well, since no other hands are
up, I can.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8091-0
00:53:25.452 --> 00:53:26.632
Ask you another question.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8096-0
00:53:27.602 --> 00:53:28.972
What do you think that?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8104-0
00:53:30.342 --> 00:53:33.712
Are the implications of these
earthquakes?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8119-0
00:53:34.492 --> 00:53:38.965
With the larger extracted
Marmara earthquake that will

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8119-1
00:53:38.965 --> 00:53:41.162
definitely affect Istanbul.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8132-0
00:53:42.092 --> 00:53:47.424
Which is heavily populated and
heavily built. Do you have any

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8132-1
00:53:47.424 --> 00:53:48.972
forecast for that?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8178-0
00:53:49.672 --> 00:53:53.352
Well, I have several forecasts
for that, but one one good thing

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8178-1
00:53:53.352 --> 00:53:56.745
obviously is that the the
maximum magnitude that we expect

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8178-2
00:53:56.745 --> 00:54:00.196
in the Marmara is less than
that. And 2nd, the fault passes

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8178-3
00:54:00.196 --> 00:54:03.704
on there. Whatever is about 20
kilometers South of the city,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8178-4
00:54:03.704 --> 00:54:06.752
not under the city's, those are
two positive things.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-0
00:54:07.482 --> 00:54:11.038
And then in Istanbul, the soil
conditions are pretty good. No

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-1
00:54:11.038 --> 00:54:14.194
basis, no nothing. The other
thing is that in Istanbul

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-2
00:54:14.194 --> 00:54:17.693
directs about, I would imagine,
about 106,000 buildings that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-3
00:54:17.693 --> 00:54:21.422
what we call the local buildings
that needs to be retrofitted or

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-4
00:54:21.422 --> 00:54:24.921
dismounted and built again. So
that's why we are pushing for

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-5
00:54:24.921 --> 00:54:28.306
the what we call the temporal
retrofitted or emergency. So

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-6
00:54:28.306 --> 00:54:31.977
that at least the people and it
can save their lives. And after

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-7
00:54:31.977 --> 00:54:35.477
that with the money they get
from the insurance and from the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8268-8
00:54:35.477 --> 00:54:37.772
government, can they build their
house.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-0
00:54:37.892 --> 00:54:41.777
Yeah, but the the people are
obviously very much excited. You

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-1
00:54:41.777 --> 00:54:45.725
know some some wants to get, you
know, they even go to stores,

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-2
00:54:45.725 --> 00:54:49.486
try to bind isolation units. You
know, so that to get their

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-3
00:54:49.486 --> 00:54:53.308
building isolated and the sum
are looking around so that how

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-4
00:54:53.308 --> 00:54:57.382
they can get it retrofitted but
it's it's a very complex complex

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-5
00:54:57.382 --> 00:55:00.703
thing. I your question is very
valid but it needs to

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8331-6
00:55:00.703 --> 00:55:03.712
investigate it. And I've been
talking with the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8338-0
00:55:04.932 --> 00:55:07.422
Friends in Japan and I also
talked with the.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-0
00:55:08.532 --> 00:55:12.274
I shall have tasks to from ATC
and with some other colleagues

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-1
00:55:12.274 --> 00:55:15.533
so that if we can start, you
know some sort of design

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-2
00:55:15.533 --> 00:55:19.335
competition so that to come up
with the external retrofit type

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-3
00:55:19.335 --> 00:55:22.594
of design for these type of
buildings with not enough

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-4
00:55:22.594 --> 00:55:26.397
performance because unless we
have external retrofit, it would

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-5
00:55:26.397 --> 00:55:30.199
be very difficult to for them to
people to vacate the building

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-6
00:55:30.199 --> 00:55:33.639
and come back again and start
finishing it again type of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8400-7
00:55:33.639 --> 00:55:34.002
thing.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8427-0
00:55:35.962 --> 00:55:39.218
Well, great here. Great to hear
that you're seeing this

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8427-1
00:55:39.218 --> 00:55:42.823
miserable because I have been
also advocating for the last 10

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8427-2
00:55:42.823 --> 00:55:43.172
years.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8444-0
00:55:43.902 --> 00:55:47.547
Almost the same thing,
identical. So that's great. I'm

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8444-1
00:55:47.547 --> 00:55:50.862
really happy to hear that you're
also doing that.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8449-0
00:55:51.542 --> 00:55:52.142
Thank you.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8457-0
00:55:51.542 --> 00:55:54.762
I think Kate, Kate, Kate is a
question, Kate.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-0
00:55:55.982 --> 00:56:00.421
Hey, thanks so much for that.
That was really informative and

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-1
00:56:00.421 --> 00:56:04.861
interesting. I was wondering if
you could speak a little more

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-2
00:56:04.861 --> 00:56:09.301
about the the bridge success
story that seems impressive that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-3
00:56:09.301 --> 00:56:13.669
so many bridges were didn't,
didn't tumble, are they sort of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-4
00:56:13.669 --> 00:56:18.037
is or is it largely that they
were built in sort of the last

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-5
00:56:18.037 --> 00:56:22.477
two decades? Is that related to
recency or is there something

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8520-6
00:56:22.477 --> 00:56:24.912
about the code that helped
there?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8516-0
00:56:22.992 --> 00:56:23.372
Well.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8559-0
00:56:25.422 --> 00:56:29.198
Well, cold, as I said, essential
follow as I said, they both

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8559-1
00:56:29.198 --> 00:56:32.665
Caltrans and Ashton, Well,
Caltrans also follows Ashton

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8559-2
00:56:32.665 --> 00:56:36.690
some degree and then the sum of
them are I think two or three of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8559-3
00:56:36.690 --> 00:56:40.342
them are isolated. But more than
that they are done by big

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8559-4
00:56:40.342 --> 00:56:40.962
companies.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8606-0
00:56:41.672 --> 00:56:44.991
And under government control
with good design and everything.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8606-1
00:56:44.991 --> 00:56:48.151
The problem with residential
building is that most of them

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8606-2
00:56:48.151 --> 00:56:51.363
are built individually, not not
by big contractors, by just

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8606-3
00:56:51.363 --> 00:56:54.576
small contractors. They don't
know anything what is good or

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8606-4
00:56:54.576 --> 00:56:56.772
what is bad and they are poorly
checked.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-0
00:56:57.482 --> 00:57:01.337
So I mean, I don't see anything.
Well, I I think the the bridges

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-1
00:57:01.337 --> 00:57:04.600
has received good engineering
design and plus reliable

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-2
00:57:04.600 --> 00:57:08.396
construction on the government
supervision that's about it. But

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-3
00:57:08.396 --> 00:57:12.252
same thing with the schools and
all public buildings. I'm a very

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-4
00:57:12.252 --> 00:57:15.337
few damaged in the public
buildings, all this stuff

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-5
00:57:15.337 --> 00:57:18.481
difficult stuff is in
residential buildings and then

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8656-0
00:57:15.402 --> 00:57:15.692
2.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8671-6
00:57:18.481 --> 00:57:21.032
the buildings that are built
individually.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8673-0
00:57:22.522 --> 00:57:23.032
Thank you.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8733-0
00:57:24.922 --> 00:57:28.572
OK, Belle verbose and has a
question and the chat which I'm

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8733-1
00:57:28.572 --> 00:57:31.797
gonna read real quick. You
mentioned at the end that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8733-2
00:57:31.797 --> 00:57:34.596
earthquake insurance is
mandatory for private

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8733-3
00:57:34.596 --> 00:57:38.490
residences, but also penetration
is 55%. Can you expand on that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8733-4
00:57:38.490 --> 00:57:41.593
or clarify is insurance not
required for apartment

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8733-5
00:57:41.593 --> 00:57:42.202
buildings?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8783-0
00:57:42.822 --> 00:57:46.413
Well, it is required for
apartment buildings, but the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8783-1
00:57:46.413 --> 00:57:50.536
weather it it is checked through
the through the municipality

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8783-2
00:57:50.536 --> 00:57:54.127
services. I mean if you don't
have, if you don't have

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8783-3
00:57:54.127 --> 00:57:58.051
insurance, you cannot get the
municipal services. But when

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8783-4
00:57:58.051 --> 00:58:02.042
when it comes to renewal time,
you may or may not renew it.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-0
00:58:02.752 --> 00:58:06.861
So it is not mandatory in the
sense that if you don't have

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-1
00:58:06.861 --> 00:58:10.902
insurance, you are you'll
receive a penalty. So there are

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-2
00:58:10.902 --> 00:58:14.803
some controls on it, but the
problem does not enough in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-3
00:58:14.803 --> 00:58:19.191
certain areas. For example in
Istanbul, which about 70%, there

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-4
00:58:19.191 --> 00:58:23.371
are some cities that close to
90% and in that area 55%. But

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-5
00:58:23.371 --> 00:58:27.341
the the interesting thing is
that although the number of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-6
00:58:27.341 --> 00:58:31.869
claims are about 500,000 is you
have seen that about 80% of them

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8866-7
00:58:31.869 --> 00:58:33.402
are from minor damage.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8912-0
00:58:34.002 --> 00:58:37.437
So they may not get much of a
money out of that. The it's

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8912-1
00:58:37.437 --> 00:58:40.991
amazing that usually there is
the moral hazard in insurance

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8912-2
00:58:40.991 --> 00:58:44.841
business and those people living
in bath houses get insurance in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8912-3
00:58:44.841 --> 00:58:48.395
good houses. They don't care
insurance. But for some reason

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8912-4
00:58:48.395 --> 00:58:50.172
it reversed in the earthquake.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8958-0
00:58:50.862 --> 00:58:54.057
And the I'm sure that the
reasons will be will be sorted

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8958-1
00:58:54.057 --> 00:58:57.197
out eventually, but that's
that's what it I I think the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8958-2
00:58:57.197 --> 00:59:00.560
Turkey is the second largest
country after New Zealand with

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8958-3
00:59:00.560 --> 00:59:03.980
that high earthquake insurance
penetration. I don't think in

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8958-4
00:59:03.980 --> 00:59:05.382
California taxi it's 15%.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8974-0
00:59:09.732 --> 00:59:13.110
OK, I think we have Question
Time for one question for Walter

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/8974-1
00:59:13.110 --> 00:59:16.052
Mooney and then we'll transition
to the open session.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9000-0
00:59:17.782 --> 00:59:22.129
Thank you very much for your
presentation. With Savi was very

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9000-1
00:59:22.129 --> 00:59:26.476
comprehensive and informative.
Do you know if there have been

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9000-2
00:59:26.476 --> 00:59:29.702
field geological studies to
measure the slip?

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9023-0
00:59:30.432 --> 00:59:34.294
The amount of slip along the
fault and the nature of the

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9023-1
00:59:34.294 --> 00:59:38.292
motion, you know, strike, slip
versus thrusting and so on.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9027-0
00:59:39.252 --> 00:59:40.372
Geological studies.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-0
00:59:40.842 --> 00:59:44.619
While several of them, I just,
you know, copied some of them

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-1
00:59:44.619 --> 00:59:48.397
and then they the the vertical
motion was in the vicinity of

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-2
00:59:48.397 --> 00:59:51.928
out some some measure about 30
centimeters, some measure

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-3
00:59:51.928 --> 00:59:55.458
probably 40 centimeters. Not
that great it's mostly left

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-4
00:59:55.458 --> 00:59:59.050
lateral and then they they
mostly measured through drones

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-5
00:59:59.050 --> 01:00:02.642
and then scale them but in
certain areas they said that I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-6
01:00:02.642 --> 01:00:06.544
found probably 6 meters which is
the maximum problem they that

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-7
01:00:06.544 --> 01:00:10.260
you can find on the surface
because on the fault mechanisms

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9126-8
01:00:10.260 --> 01:00:14.162
that solutions you you go up to
probably 8 meters at the most.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9150-0
01:00:14.302 --> 01:00:17.257
But that's about it. But there
are so many reports on that I

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9150-1
01:00:17.257 --> 01:00:20.019
can, you know, be happy to, to
send you some references.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9150-2
01:00:20.019 --> 01:00:21.812
Several people measure those
things.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9153-0
01:00:22.992 --> 01:00:23.822
Thank you very much.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9157-0
01:00:24.092 --> 01:00:24.752
You're welcome.

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9196-0
01:00:31.142 --> 01:00:35.599
All right. At this point, since
it is 11:30, I think we can stop

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9196-1
01:00:35.599 --> 01:00:39.920
the recording and then if people
wanna stay on and chat, we'll

22602784-3eae-4529-93d1-e1eb6a78d753/9196-2
01:00:39.920 --> 01:00:42.732
just leave the room on for open
session.