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Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks
for hanging in to the last presentation

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of the last session of our
Earthquake Hazards Workshop.

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I’m Keith Knudsen of the USGS,
and I’m going to spend a little bit

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of time talking about
USGS earthquake response.

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I’m going to cover really
three main topics.

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The first is the abundance of data
that’s available in the seconds, minutes,

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and hour or two after an event occurs.
Secondly, given that all that information

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is available, I believe our earthquake
response has really changed over the

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last decade or two and that our response
now should be governed by trying to

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answer questions about earthquake
phenomenon – outstanding questions.

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And I’ll go through
some of those questions.

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And then, third, I’ll talk
a little bit about collaborating

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and partnering and how to
plan to collaborate.

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So first, what are the goals of
earthquake response for USGS?

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The first is to provide
situational awareness.

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And we know that a wide range of
audiences are interested in learning

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what we can share about
a recent earthquake.

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Second is to collect
perishable data to document

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the earthquake
effects and impacts.

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Third is to better understand hazards
and risks so that we make better

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forecasts and products.
Again, are there outstanding questions

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about how earthquakes work,
and can we design our post-earthquake

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response investigations to try
to answer those questions.

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And the last goal of USGS earthquake
response, which I think is often

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not considered in decisions about
how to respond, is giving our scientists

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and technicians and others a chance
to see what happens in an earthquake –

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to have that experience.
People work for decades in earthquake

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science and may only be around
for one or two big earthquakes.

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I’m sure that many of you –
probably all of you are familiar

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with our event pages.
This shows these events pages.

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This one is for the recent
Petrolia, California, earthquake.

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And these event pages show the
plethora of available data and analyses

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that are available in the seconds,
minutes, and hours following

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an earthquake. From earthquake early
warning to ShakeMaps, to PAGER,

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to interactive maps showing
seismicity before, during –

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or, before and after an event.
These red rectangles highlight three

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of our newer products. There’s
aftershock forecasts, which I hope

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many of you are familiar with.
There is ShakeAlert, which is a project

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whereby we attempt to warn people
that they will be shaking while

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that shaking is going on elsewhere
and headed their way, and last is

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probabilistic maps of predictions
of where liquefaction and

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landsliding likely occurred given
the magnitude and location.

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And this figure, borrowed from
Dave Wald, shows the timing with

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which those various products are
released, starting with probabilistic

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seismic hazard assessments and
development of scenarios in the

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between-earthquake times,
to ShakeAlert and our ENS

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notification of location and
magnitude of earthquakes,

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to ShakeMap, which is one of the
first sort of data-intensive products

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to come out, all the way out to our
aftershock forecasts and ground failure

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predictions that typically come
out within an hour or so.

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And I think this is – this suite of
products represents tremendous

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progress we’ve made in recent
years and over the last decade or so.

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Given that this suite of products is
available, I contend that our earthquake

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response should have evolved from
collecting the kind of information that

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goes into those products to trying to
answer outstanding questions about

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earthquake processes and phenomena.
And I’ve spoken with colleagues in

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recent weeks to come up with a list
of those outstanding questions,

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and these next two slide, I –
two slides will be used to

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go through those
outstanding questions.

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So the first is, of course,
how do different types of structures

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respond to shaking. For example,
a retrofitted building compared to

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a non-retrofitted similar building,
what’s the relative performance?

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What was the shaking at sites
where landslides or liquefaction

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or building and other
infrastructure damage occurred?

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And can we characterize that
shaking as a function of frequency?

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What factors contributed to the fact that
there were damaging ground motions?

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Were there source
effects or directivity –

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path, site, basin, resonance,
topographic, etc.?

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And are these
factors predictable?

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How did people and react to
and receive, or not, I suppose,

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ShakeAlerts and
our other products?

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And relatedly, what caused
the injuries that were –

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that occurred, and deaths,
for that matter?

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The next question would be,
how spatially variable are

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ground motions in any
one event, and why?

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And then last on this slide –
I’ll go into one more slide,

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were there precursory signals or
changes, like foreshocks or changes

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in creep rate or other phenomenon
that we might have identified

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beforehand that would tell us that
something big was about to happen?

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And how do we go about
identifying these potential

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precursors and
evaluating them?

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And, if we do identify them, what do
we say, and to whom do we say that?

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Some more questions about earthquake
processes in general that should guide

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our earthquake response. What is
the temporal distribution of slip?

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I’ve got a number of bullets under this
that I don’t have time to go through.

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Relatedly, what is the
spatial distribution of slip?

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And by that, I mean both along-strike
and perpendicular to strike.

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And I’m talking about
slip at the surface here.

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Why do aftershocks occur,
and where and when they do.

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I’ll read that again. Why do aftershocks
occur where and when they do?

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And, relatedly, what might control
triggering of additional large events?

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Where do ruptures
start and stop, and why?

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This is a question that we try to
answer with our UCERF project

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and mode of analyses.
And then, lastly, what is the extent

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and magnitude of ground failure?
And by ground failure, I mean

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liquefaction and landsliding.
You’ve probably seen me stand up

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in meetings and urge people to collect
and compile complete maps of where

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ground failure did and did not occur
because we need such maps for

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validating and testing
and calibrating our models.

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Okay. The last part of this is planning
for future earthquake response.

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I think each of the regions in the
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program

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has some form of planning where
they’ve got an org chart or a call-down

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list or lists of people who they think
will be involved, and this is – this is

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our northern California earthquake
response organization chart.

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I’d be happy to share this with others,
and I urge those of you who are

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thinking that you’ll collaborate
and partner with the USGS in future

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events to contact those individuals.
And you can use those individuals

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who do related work to what
you’re interested in doing.

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And you can use this organization
chart to go – to identify

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who those people are now.
This is sort of a moving target.

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It’s always – the names in the
boxes are always being changed.

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And the colors of the names
correspond to their location

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within different
offices of the USGS.

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The top part of that shows
sort of the liaison roles.

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Some of you may represent agencies
that our folks will be representing us

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in conversations with you
following the next earthquake.

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And then these are the sort of
investigative sub-disciplines.

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We’ve got field
operations on the left.

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We’ve got collection of geospatial
information in the light blue.

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The green shows really the
performance of different aspects

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of our regional networks,
collecting primarily seismic data.

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We need administrative support,
even more than normal, in the times

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following an earthquake. And then
the gray boxes in the right are the

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kinds of scientific analyses typically
we’re doing back in the office.

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So, again, I’m happy to share this with
anyone who would like to figure out

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who they should be talking with to
plan future response to earthquakes.

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And then, last, this document,
USGS Circular 1242, is a document

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to guide our interactions with
other NEHRP agencies,

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and it was last written in 2003.
You’ll be happy to know that there’s

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a group of people actively writing
the revision to this, and it will describe

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the roles and responsibilities of
the different NEHRP agencies.

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So, with that, I’ll stop here and look
forward to a lively discussion about

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how we can all collaborate better
on earthquake response. Thank you.