WEBVTT
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Language: en-US

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[silence]

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Disasters do not impact all individuals,
neighborhoods, or communities equally

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across all members. Today, I will look at
an example of disparate risk due to

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earthquakes through the lens of
potentially vulnerable communities.

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The HayWired scenario, which recently
presented its societal consequences

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research to the public on the anniversary
of the 1868 Hayward earthquake,

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comprehensively analyzed many
facets of earthquake hazard.

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This talk will focus on communities
at risk to earthquake hazards

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and their aftermath, specifically
where these communities may be found,

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who may be residents
of these communities,

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and what these communities
may experience.

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Disasters have differential impacts
on the land, buildings,

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and those who reside in them.
Where concentrations of building

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damage are seen, longer and
more complex recoveries result.

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These complexities extend
beyond just the blocks with

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concentrated building damage into
the surrounding neighborhoods.

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An example of this effect was seen
in Los Angeles following the

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1994 Northridge earthquake, where
concentrated multi-family housing

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damage led to more and more residents
leaving, blighting the neighborhoods.

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In the HayWired scenario,
the initial event produces sudden slip

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along the Hayward Fault and
widespread ground shaking.

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The fault slip and ground shaking
cause ground movement

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in the forms of surface rupture,
landslides, and liquefaction.

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Damages from these earthquake hazards
initiate fires following the earthquake,

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and fault slip continues as afterslip
with time as the plates re-equalize.

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Aftershocks and their related hazards
then continue over the course of

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two years following the main shock.
Each unique hazard can exacerbate

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existing damage in addition to
causing new damage.

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To illustrate spatially where damages
may be overwhelming, we took the

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square footage of buildings damaged,
according to FEMA’s Hazus

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loss estimation software,
and integrated square footage damage

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due to fire to identify potential
areas of concentrated damage.

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These areas of concentrated building
damage are mapped as census tracts

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with 20% or more of their
total building square footage

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classified as extensively
or completely damaged.

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Further, these areas of concentrated
damage were divided into

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seven economic sub-areas –
four in Alameda County

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and one each in Contra Costa,
Marin, and Solano Counties.

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Concentrated damage areas in Marin and
Solano Counties stand out specifically

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due to the integration of fire damage.
The area of concentrated damage

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identified for the HayWired scenario,
which is shown in orange and red

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in the map here, contains roughly
203,000 residential buildings

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with around 46,000 of these
buildings potentially experiencing

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extensive or complete damage.
Nearly 50% of the region’s residential

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buildings with extensive or complete
damage in the HayWired scenario

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are located in areas of concentrated
building damage, yet this area contains

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less than 8% of the census tracts in
the nine-county region as a whole.

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As a result, these areas are likely to
have longer recovery trajectories and

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more long-term community recovery
challenges than other parts of the region.

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Following a major disaster, individuals
in the area may leave for several reasons,

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either voluntary or forced.
These reasons may include lack of

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community services and
uncertainty regarding additional

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exposure to hazards.
Residents with school-age children

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will need access to schools to return
to normalcy, while individuals with

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access and functional needs will
need stable access to healthcare.

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Low-income residents will
need inexpensive rental or repair

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options for their housing situations.
Disparate risk can lead to disparate

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recovery, with more vulnerable
populations tending to be more prone

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to longer and more
difficult recovery.

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In order to gain some understanding
of the different population groups that

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may be exposed to HayWired hazards,
several population demographic

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categories were identified
as historically more vulnerable.

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For HayWired, the Association of
Bay Area Governments and

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San Francisco Bay Conservation
and Development Commission’s

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Community Vulnerability Indicators
from 2015 were used as one metric,

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along with additional demographic
characteristics defined by the authors

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of the HayWired
Communities at Risk chapter.

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The Community Vulnerability Indicator
is defined by ABAG and BCDC look at

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10 different demographic characteristics,
including housing cost burden,

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transportation cost burden, home
ownership status, household income,

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education level, racial or cultural
composition, transit dependence,

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primary language spoken at home,
presence of young children,

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and presence of the elderly.
The additional author-defined

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characteristics focused on how likely
a population would need neighborhood

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stability in order to remain
in their current residences.

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These characteristics include school-age
children, households with at least one

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resident with access or functional needs,
homeless populations, and younger

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residents with limited ties to the region
due to home ownership status, lack of

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children or family ties, or financial
freedom to move from the region.

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In particular, young and moderate-
to high-income renters may have

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enhanced means in mobility, allowing
them to more easily permanently

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leave the region if a disaster
temporarily displaces them.

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For the HayWired scenario, residents
in census block groups with

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concentrations of at least five
Community Vulnerability Indicators

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make up a disproportionate amount of
total residents in areas with concentrated

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damage, especially in portions of
Alameda and Contra Costa Counties.

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Nearly one in five Alameda County
residents live in block groups

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in concentrated damage areas that also
have concentrations of at least five

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Community Vulnerability Indicators.
Specifically, the central Alameda

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County and western Costra County
sub-areas house around 40 and 26%

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of their total populations, respectively,
in these areas of concentrated damage,

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also supporting concentrations of
five or more Community Vulnerability

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Indicators. Housing- and income-related
indicators, like lack of home ownership,

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high housing cost burden, and lower
household incomes are relatively

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more present in block groups
where concentrations of at least

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five Community Vulnerability
Indicators are found, as are literacy

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indicators like lower levels of education
and more non-English speakers.

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In the HayWired scenario areas of
concentrated damage, there are also

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more than 64,000 school-age children,
more than 31,000 households with

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at least one resident with access or
functional needs, and more than

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24,000 renters householders between
the ages of 25 and 34 in 2010 census

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block groups where the concentrations
of these demographics are higher than

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other block groups. For young renter
householders, more than 14,000

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also reside in block groups where
concentrations of more wealthy young

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householders, individuals with
no families or children,

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or higher rental costs are found.
While detailed data for homeless

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populations were not available,
several cities with areas of concentrated

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damage have identified homeless
populations via point-in-time surveys.

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High concentrations of these additional
demographic characteristics and areas

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with Community Vulnerability
Indicator scores of at least 5 overlap

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the central Alameda County,
western Contra Costa County,

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and Vallejo sub-areas for school-age
children, the western Contra Costa

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County and central Alameda County
economic sub-areas for households

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with at least one resident with access or
functional needs, and Vallejo, Pinole,

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areas near Lake Merritt,
near the west side of Oakland,

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and in Union City for
young renter householders.

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For people displaced from
inhabitable homes or neighborhoods,

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interim and permanent housing needs
resulting from building damage,

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utility outages, and environmental
health threats following a major

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earthquake are less well-addressed
by current government and

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non-government plans compared to
their focus on short-term needs.

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Extended utility outages can
push residents out of otherwise

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structurally sound housing.
For example, residents who rely on

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medical equipment to stay in their
homes will be forced to relocate

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due to extended electric power outage,
even if structural damage to their

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houses was minimal.
And lack of in-house access

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to potable water could lead
residents in otherwise sound areas

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to move elsewhere,
potentially permanent.

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Renters, particularly lower-income
renters, and people with access or

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functional needs may have more
difficulty finding alternative housing.

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Households relying on public housing,
Housing Choice Vouchers, or other

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housing subsidies may be especially
vulnerable to displacement and

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insufficient long-term interim housing,
especially in the San Francisco Bay

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Area, where housing shortages and high
rental prices have dramatically affected

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individuals using Housing Choice
Vouchers and other housing subsidies.

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Estimates of populations and
households at risk of displacement

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owing to building damage and other
physical impacts of the HayWired

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scenario varied depending on the
method used to obtain the estimate.

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The low-end household and population
displacement estimates use a customized

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Hazus analysis to estimate displacement
due to shaking and liquefaction

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damages to buildings by the
HayWired scenario main shock.

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The next estimate assumes,
based on prior earthquakes,

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that utility outages will increase
displacement estimates by 20%.

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The high displacement estimates
include damage due to landslides

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and fires and the compounding
effects of concentrated damage

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by the HayWired
main shock.

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For the HayWired scenario,
the high-end household and

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population displacement estimates show
that as many as 520,000 households

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and 1.45 million people are at risk of
displacement from the HayWired

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main shock, which is about 20%
of the nine-county region total.

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Due to Alameda County’s position
as the central point of the event,

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as much as 23% of households and
population in the county reside

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in the areas of concentrated damage.
A larger portion of the total

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displacement in the region is likely

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to come from these areas.
While aftershocks would not result

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in substantial increases in emergency
shelter or interim housing demands,

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there could be ripple effects
for mental health,

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population displacement,
and housing.

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These ripple effects may include
mortgage defaults, reduced property

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values, population relocation,
neighborhood blight,

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and decreases in property tax
revenues in affected jurisdictions.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has
highlighted disparities for some

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minority populations, front-line workers,
and people living in close quarters,

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which have seen a disproportionate
number of deaths in the last two years.

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Housing, infrastructure, social,
and financial vulnerabilities to

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a major earthquake are a serious issue
throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.

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And, without changes in investment
and focus on reducing seismic risk,

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at least some of these vulnerabilities
will likely continue to grow.

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During the pandemic, socially cohesive
communities have fared better.

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With the San Jose State University
anthropology department,

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HayWired has engaged with
communities to identify hazards

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and social vulnerability characteristics
of local concern and compare them

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with available HayWired analyses
to see what may be missing

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and what would
help their community.

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Through this engagement,
they found that LGBTQIA+ populations

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were lacking representation
in HayWired research.

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Similarly, the bulk of HayWired
communications are currently

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only available in English
and only available online.

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Were more of the research available
in languages other than English,

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or perhaps in non-digital formats,
a wider audience could be reached.

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During the HayWired Communities
at Risk webinar, Janiele Maffei

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of the California Earthquake Authority
described a program to concentrate free

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building retrofits in lower-income ZIP
codes as an antidote to disproportionate

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effects on underserved populations
in concentrated damage areas.

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Maziar Movassaghi of the California
Housing and Community Development

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department, expressed concern around
the gaps in reconstruction resources

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and costs, the time it takes for funding
to become available, and the lack of

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community planning to leverage
Community Development Block Grant

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Disaster Recovery resources,
all of which are differentially longer

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for multi-family housing.
An example of this delay is shown in

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the graph here, which highlights the
drop in subsequent lack of housing

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stock recovery for Butte County
following the Camp Fire in 2018.

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Many low-income neighborhoods are
already experiencing displacement,

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and high-income neighborhoods
are also rapidly losing their

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existing low-income
populations.

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Neighborhoods with rail stations,
historical housing stock, and rising

00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:55.496
housing prices are especially at risk
of losing low-income households.

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Many of these at-risk neighborhoods
correspond with areas of concentrated

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damage in the East Bay in the HayWired
scenario, making planning all the

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more important to avoid
exacerbating replacement trends.

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Other factors affect whether displaced
residents that are an important part of

00:13:11.200 --> 00:13:14.720
our workforce return to their homes
following a major disaster like the

00:13:14.720 --> 00:13:18.880
HayWired earthquake scenario.
Extended housing restoration times,

00:13:18.880 --> 00:13:23.120
particularly for multi-family housing,
lack of community services,

00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:28.000
lack of social ties, and flexibility of
job locations, among other things,

00:13:28.000 --> 00:13:33.656
could delay population return or
exacerbate population-out migration.

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In addition, some displaced people
may prefer the amenities available

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in their receiving communities and
choose to stay there rather than return.

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Post-disaster changes in the
demographic composition of impacted

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communities is common, with new
people, notably recovery workers

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and the reconstruction labor force
moving in, sometimes permanently.

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I would like to acknowledge my
co-authors for the HayWired

00:13:58.800 --> 00:14:02.960
Communities at Risk Analysis work.
First and foremost, lead author

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Laurie Johnson, along with USGS’s
Anne Wein and Jeff Peters.

00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:10.880
For further information about
the Hayward scenario,

00:14:10.880 --> 00:14:15.200
please refer to the URL shown here
or do an internet search for

00:14:15.200 --> 00:14:18.560
"USGS HayWired" to
find the main website,

00:14:18.560 --> 00:14:24.880
or "HayWired connection" for access
to the webinar archive. Thank you.