WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en-US 00:00:00.310 --> 00:00:02.982 … our next speaker, Elizabeth Vanacore. 00:00:02.982 --> 00:00:06.625 Elizabeth received her bachelor’s of science in geological sciences from 00:00:06.625 --> 00:00:10.201 Virginia Tech before pursuing her Ph.D. at Rice University. 00:00:10.201 --> 00:00:14.375 Before landing in Puerto Rico a little over six years ago, she had postdocs 00:00:14.375 --> 00:00:18.125 at Australia National University Research School of Earth Sciences 00:00:18.125 --> 00:00:20.886 and the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. 00:00:20.888 --> 00:00:23.623 She is now an associate research professor at the University of Puerto 00:00:23.625 --> 00:00:29.250 Rico-Mayagūez and a coordinator of research and seismologist at the 00:00:29.250 --> 00:00:33.750 Puerto Rico Seismic Network. She’s also the current team member 00:00:33.750 --> 00:00:41.843 of the UNESCO IGBC Caribbean Wave Task Force team, the UNESCO 00:00:41.843 --> 00:00:46.500 Caribbean EWS Working Group 3 vice chair, and vice chair of protocols 00:00:46.500 --> 00:00:50.750 for end-to-end communication and dissemination of warnings. 00:00:50.750 --> 00:00:55.375 Without further ado, Elizabeth, thank you so much for being here today. 00:00:55.638 --> 00:00:57.935 - Great. Thank you. It’s good to be here. 00:00:57.935 --> 00:01:01.271 I’m going to be talking a little bit on a different angle. 00:01:01.271 --> 00:01:06.500 Much more of what we see as the scientific network side as far as 00:01:06.500 --> 00:01:10.750 our kind of communications during the 2020 southwest 00:01:10.750 --> 00:01:12.904 Puerto Rico seismic sequence. 00:01:12.904 --> 00:01:17.388 And I’m going to start out by showing you kind of the web of communications. 00:01:17.388 --> 00:01:22.467 As far as Puerto Rico goes, we have the – we have the USGS, 00:01:22.467 --> 00:01:25.375 Puerto Rico Seismic Network and Strong Motion Program, and the 00:01:25.375 --> 00:01:30.234 National Weather Service as the official sources of information for – 00:01:30.234 --> 00:01:34.750 this is just for earthquakes and tsunamis. And, from that, the official sources will 00:01:34.750 --> 00:01:37.625 feed into our emergency management. It’s important to note that 00:01:37.625 --> 00:01:39.662 it’s not just Puerto Rico emergency management – 00:01:39.662 --> 00:01:42.115 also Virgin Islands emergency management. 00:01:42.157 --> 00:01:44.125 And that also means to the government officials 00:01:44.125 --> 00:01:46.500 and to the press and to the public. 00:01:46.500 --> 00:01:50.125 But then we also have our local geology department, which we are – 00:01:50.125 --> 00:01:53.250 the Puerto Rico Seismic Network is part of the geology department. 00:01:53.250 --> 00:01:56.578 But they also have their great local expertise. 00:01:56.583 --> 00:02:01.375 We had such a – for this particular sequence, Jim Joyce, who also was 00:02:01.375 --> 00:02:04.375 able to communicate with the press and the public, as well as Stephen Hughes, 00:02:04.375 --> 00:02:08.500 who is our landslide expert in the department. And he also helped us 00:02:08.500 --> 00:02:13.125 out during the sequence as far as communicating those dangers. 00:02:13.125 --> 00:02:18.000 And, when you have these official sources they go – the official scientific 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:21.750 sources to the government sources. And the official – emergency 00:02:21.750 --> 00:02:23.625 management will talk to the government officials. 00:02:23.625 --> 00:02:25.875 They’ll talk to the press and the public. And the government officials will 00:02:25.875 --> 00:02:29.250 talk to the press and the public. So, even though there’s one source 00:02:29.250 --> 00:02:33.125 of scientific information, that information essentially 00:02:33.125 --> 00:02:35.865 could go through whisper- down-the-lane sequence. 00:02:35.865 --> 00:02:39.500 And that can and does happen. And it’s important to note for – 00:02:39.500 --> 00:02:42.125 it’s official – it’s important that all the official sources talk to 00:02:42.125 --> 00:02:44.625 each other because one thing that’s important during this type 00:02:44.625 --> 00:02:48.661 of sequence is to have consistent information. 00:02:48.661 --> 00:02:54.125 You can talk about how, with the day of the 6.4, the tsunami information 00:02:54.125 --> 00:02:59.125 to the public was not consistent because there was a disagreement between what 00:02:59.125 --> 00:03:04.125 the PTWC put out as well as – then compared to the Seismic Network 00:03:04.125 --> 00:03:09.607 and the agencies based on different protocols and local preferences. 00:03:10.490 --> 00:03:13.750 So that’s something that is going to be discussed and something that 00:03:13.750 --> 00:03:16.318 needs to be addressed in the future so that doesn’t happen. 00:03:16.318 --> 00:03:19.412 So you have to have a consistent message from all three. 00:03:19.412 --> 00:03:22.500 And one thing that also can happen during this type of communication, 00:03:22.500 --> 00:03:27.732 when you have multiple official sources, there can be some confusion. 00:03:27.732 --> 00:03:31.750 Because all the official sources will talk to all of the sources 00:03:31.750 --> 00:03:34.404 on the right-hand portion of this screen. 00:03:34.404 --> 00:03:39.084 And, with the public, the public might go to the USGS ComCat catalog, 00:03:39.084 --> 00:03:40.997 and they might go to the PRSN catalog. 00:03:40.997 --> 00:03:45.854 And, if PRSN has not finalized and sent our final earthquake location 00:03:45.854 --> 00:03:49.244 to the USGS, they might get two different locations. 00:03:49.244 --> 00:03:52.114 Or they might get two different magnitudes for the same event. 00:03:52.114 --> 00:03:55.595 And that will cause – that can and did cause confusion. 00:03:55.595 --> 00:04:01.415 And I think part of that is, there is not a lot of education of how the 00:04:01.415 --> 00:04:05.661 three agencies over here on that far left work together. 00:04:05.698 --> 00:04:08.475 Or, what is the Advanced National Seismic System? 00:04:08.475 --> 00:04:11.605 That is not in the public idea, so they don’t understand, when they 00:04:11.605 --> 00:04:17.768 see a final location of PRSN in USGS, that that is a PRSN location. 00:04:17.779 --> 00:04:22.935 Or, if they see – don’t see a PRSN location in USGS, they don’t realize 00:04:22.935 --> 00:04:26.404 that that earthquake hasn’t been finalized by PRSN yet. 00:04:26.435 --> 00:04:32.091 So that is maybe pointing out an issue that we have to address in the future as far as 00:04:32.091 --> 00:04:36.943 our communication is, how do we get people to understand how the official 00:04:36.943 --> 00:04:40.685 sources work and communicate together. 00:04:40.685 --> 00:04:44.388 Now I’m going to address three major issues that came up – 00:04:44.388 --> 00:04:47.388 or, challenges that came up during this sequence. 00:04:47.388 --> 00:04:54.533 The first one is unrealistic expectations. And this is for – especially for PRSN. 00:04:54.544 --> 00:04:57.525 They have an idea – the public, the press, and the government, 00:04:57.525 --> 00:05:01.894 even, have an idea that PRSN has an army of scientists. 00:05:01.894 --> 00:05:06.095 They think that we have – if you talk to the public, sometimes the public thinks, 00:05:06.095 --> 00:05:09.044 oh, you don’t have – what do you mean you don’t have 100 employees? 00:05:09.044 --> 00:05:14.734 We have maybe 20. And that includes everything from our data analysts, 00:05:14.734 --> 00:05:21.054 the three scientists on staff, which we could say three, but really is we have 00:05:21.054 --> 00:05:26.834 one and a half because of administrative and other university duties. 00:05:26.834 --> 00:05:30.245 We have – and that includes our secretarial, administration staff. 00:05:30.245 --> 00:05:34.798 That includes our education staff. That includes our IT staff. 00:05:34.799 --> 00:05:38.791 And people don’t realize that we are a very small operation 00:05:38.791 --> 00:05:42.025 that’s punching much larger than our body weight. 00:05:42.701 --> 00:05:47.221 So they think that they make a phone call to PRSN immediately after 00:05:47.221 --> 00:05:51.431 an earthquake – especially when that 6.4 happened in the morning hours – 00:05:51.431 --> 00:05:54.943 early morning hours, they expect that someone is going to physically 00:05:54.943 --> 00:05:57.779 answer the phone. When the reality is that PRSN, 00:05:57.813 --> 00:06:02.301 the analysts on duty are busy dealing with sending out the earthquake alerts 00:06:02.301 --> 00:06:05.958 and sending out the tsunami information that goes with those earthquake alerts, 00:06:05.958 --> 00:06:09.432 and then dealing with the aftershocks – the immediate aftershocks that are 00:06:09.432 --> 00:06:12.240 coming in that are also causing alarms. 00:06:12.717 --> 00:06:17.697 So that is the first challenge that we have to – that we have is that 00:06:17.697 --> 00:06:21.546 there’s this unrealistic expectation of instant gratification, and they think 00:06:21.546 --> 00:06:27.276 that we have more resources than we actually have. 00:06:27.276 --> 00:06:31.917 So one way we started to address this is, because to set up a press conference 00:06:31.917 --> 00:06:37.616 in Puerto Rico is not an easy feat, is one thing that we did is we started 00:06:37.616 --> 00:06:42.036 using Facebook Live more. And that was an advantage to us. 00:06:42.036 --> 00:06:45.016 Now, when we did the Facebook Live, we had to have it done 00:06:45.016 --> 00:06:49.326 both in English and Spanish. So you usually have to have two people. 00:06:49.326 --> 00:06:52.026 One person would just – one person would do the Spanish, 00:06:52.026 --> 00:06:55.847 and then I would do the English immediately afterwards. 00:06:55.847 --> 00:07:02.136 And then we also brought in – brought in volunteers to do sign language. 00:07:02.143 --> 00:07:06.017 And that is something that we’re working on because you can’t do 00:07:06.029 --> 00:07:09.857 real-time closed-captioning with these Facebook Lives yet, that we 00:07:09.857 --> 00:07:14.365 have to make it accessible as much as possible for the population. 00:07:14.365 --> 00:07:19.166 The other thing is, we started using – we got – we started writing kind of blog 00:07:19.166 --> 00:07:24.404 or newspaper articles for Temblor. I know this is a online blog. 00:07:24.404 --> 00:07:27.177 It’s not an official resource. But it has advantages. 00:07:27.177 --> 00:07:31.866 One, it does have a DOI. And secondly, it let us put out the – 00:07:31.866 --> 00:07:33.857 all the papers we wrote in Spanish and English. 00:07:33.857 --> 00:07:39.067 So, again, that bilingual need was attended to. 00:07:39.067 --> 00:07:42.447 And we were able to go directly to the internet – directly to the audience. 00:07:42.447 --> 00:07:45.757 We didn’t have to go through the press or the press office 00:07:45.757 --> 00:07:48.407 to get that information out there. 00:07:48.407 --> 00:07:51.157 And so, while they were somewhat scientific, they weren’t 00:07:51.157 --> 00:07:56.116 completely scientific articles. So they were accessible to the public. 00:07:56.116 --> 00:08:00.037 And I think using something like Temblor is actually very advantageous 00:08:00.037 --> 00:08:03.826 as a scientist, as a network, to get information out 00:08:03.826 --> 00:08:06.507 without necessarily having to go through the press. 00:08:06.507 --> 00:08:10.877 Because the press do have – they call up, and they say, 00:08:10.877 --> 00:08:15.207 we need this information right away. One thing that we can handle better, 00:08:15.207 --> 00:08:19.657 and I think that’s something that we’ve learned from, is that we need to stop 00:08:19.657 --> 00:08:24.747 and say, we’re going to do a Facebook Live update at 9:00 a.m. and 9:00 p.m. 00:08:24.747 --> 00:08:30.267 Or 7:00 a.m. and – or, 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. and be done. 00:08:30.267 --> 00:08:34.297 Because otherwise, most of our first few days as a scientist were spent 00:08:34.297 --> 00:08:38.257 on the phone answering press questions when maybe it would have been better 00:08:38.257 --> 00:08:44.096 just to do one YouTube or Facebook Live conference. 00:08:45.185 --> 00:08:49.576 The second one – challenge was the misinformation. 00:08:49.576 --> 00:08:54.867 And I’m saying misinterpretation. I know Lorna already just talked 00:08:54.867 --> 00:08:59.577 about this. One was that we had a rumor of drilling offshore 00:08:59.577 --> 00:09:06.086 causing the earthquakes. Which we all knew was not true. 00:09:06.086 --> 00:09:09.867 But that misinformation, rumor, got going on social media. 00:09:09.867 --> 00:09:13.617 And part of it was, people will take a report, or a figure like the one 00:09:13.624 --> 00:09:17.077 I’m showing you on the right, and they would say, oh, look, 00:09:17.077 --> 00:09:19.585 southwest Puerto Rico. They must be drilling there. 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:23.427 But, if you read the report, it basically says it’s not viable. 00:09:23.427 --> 00:09:28.737 And thankfully, we did have support for dealing with that type of issue. 00:09:28.737 --> 00:09:33.267 Second thing is, with the aftershock forecast, what we found, especially 00:09:33.267 --> 00:09:36.919 with many of the meteorologists on the island, they were initially 00:09:36.919 --> 00:09:40.597 misinterpreting what these numbers meant. 00:09:40.597 --> 00:09:44.346 So this is – I would say that’s not misinformation. 00:09:44.353 --> 00:09:46.833 It was much more misinterpretation. It’s a new product. 00:09:46.855 --> 00:09:49.341 And so how you communicate to the public is something that 00:09:49.356 --> 00:09:52.677 needs to be taught. And then we have the last one, 00:09:52.677 --> 00:09:54.786 which I call it Monday morning quarterbacks. 00:09:54.786 --> 00:09:58.115 Because people forget what the sequence – it started on a single fault. 00:09:58.158 --> 00:10:01.267 It started on – likely, it’s going to be the Punta Montalva Fault. 00:10:01.267 --> 00:10:04.794 So, as a seismologist, we say, okay, we have the Punta Montalva Fault. 00:10:04.794 --> 00:10:10.786 It looks like we’re having a nice, simple aftershock sequence on that single fault. 00:10:10.786 --> 00:10:15.507 The 6.4 occurred on a different fault. And then – so that means we went 00:10:15.507 --> 00:10:19.997 from a single-fault sequence to a multiple-fault sequence. 00:10:19.997 --> 00:10:24.067 And so it’s kind of like apples and oranges as a seismologist. 00:10:24.067 --> 00:10:30.099 So we went from a nice, simple apple to a complex fruit salad. 00:10:30.099 --> 00:10:32.239 And people were saying, why didn’t we know. 00:10:32.239 --> 00:10:35.825 Why didn’t we know that those were foreshocks? 00:10:35.825 --> 00:10:40.552 And the reality is, there was – at the time, there was no way to know. 00:10:42.029 --> 00:10:44.637 So how do we address that? One, call backup. 00:10:44.637 --> 00:10:47.646 I know some people on this panel today were part of that backup. 00:10:47.646 --> 00:10:51.166 So thank you very much. It’s appreciated. 00:10:51.166 --> 00:10:55.687 We have good relationships with EcoExploratorio and Ada Monzon. 00:10:55.687 --> 00:11:01.346 And that actually helped aid us. And so that pre-existing relationship 00:11:01.346 --> 00:11:05.891 did help us address some of those needs very quickly. 00:11:05.896 --> 00:11:08.966 I’ve got to say – again, Lorna already mentioned this – we already had 00:11:08.966 --> 00:11:11.875 a paper that was signed by 28 geologists that came out 00:11:11.875 --> 00:11:14.404 to help us deal with the fracking issue. 00:11:14.404 --> 00:11:18.375 Also the geology department was invaluable. 00:11:18.375 --> 00:11:22.250 Our [inaudible] colleagues in the geology department would come in and 00:11:22.250 --> 00:11:25.375 would help us. Either they were dealing with social media – 00:11:25.375 --> 00:11:29.375 Jim Joyce took out a couple of the press to the Punta Montalva, 00:11:29.375 --> 00:11:31.875 explained what was going on, which was great. 00:11:31.875 --> 00:11:36.000 And also cutting out the middleman with Facebook and social media – 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:39.625 going directly to the public was actually quite useful 00:11:39.625 --> 00:11:42.875 because it let us control the message. 00:11:44.381 --> 00:11:50.250 And the other issue is geography. And this is – hopefully, with COVID, 00:11:50.250 --> 00:11:53.375 things will be changing – is the reality is, Puerto Rico is – Puerto Rico 00:11:53.375 --> 00:11:57.896 Seismic Network is in Mayagūez. The source region of the earthquakes 00:11:57.896 --> 00:12:00.875 is the red – is the red square in southwestern Puerto Rico. 00:12:00.875 --> 00:12:05.138 The government, the news media, everyone else is based in San Juan. 00:12:05.138 --> 00:12:09.375 And the time between Mayagūez and San Juan, going the northern route, 00:12:09.375 --> 00:12:15.125 is about three hours – 3-1/2 hours, maybe 2-1/2 if you get really lucky. 00:12:15.125 --> 00:12:17.875 Because you have to think about, during this earthquake sequence, 00:12:17.875 --> 00:12:22.875 the southern route was not very available because of damage to PR 2. 00:12:23.983 --> 00:12:27.500 So we’re talking – if they wanted us to come and talk to the government 00:12:27.500 --> 00:12:31.148 or go down to Caguas emergency management, it’s talking 3-1/2 hours 00:12:31.148 --> 00:12:34.539 for just us to get a physical person there. 00:12:34.539 --> 00:12:37.875 And so that geography became an issue. Because when [inaudible] says, 00:12:37.875 --> 00:12:42.000 oh, we want you in San Juan at 6:00 a.m. to give a talk or tell us 00:12:42.000 --> 00:12:44.875 about this, and at the same time, we need to be out in southwest 00:12:44.875 --> 00:12:49.805 Puerto Rico installing stations to help monitor the sequence, 00:12:49.805 --> 00:12:54.625 we end up with an issue of, we can’t be in two places at once, 00:12:54.625 --> 00:12:57.375 and we’ve run out of manpower. It goes back to that unrealistic 00:12:57.375 --> 00:13:01.500 expectation. We are only human and can only do so much. 00:13:01.500 --> 00:13:05.500 So how can we address that? One is to encourage more telemeetings. 00:13:05.500 --> 00:13:08.000 And, thanks to our friend on the right-hand picture here, COVID, 00:13:08.000 --> 00:13:11.875 hopefully that will actually be occurring more in the future. 00:13:11.875 --> 00:13:17.216 So it’d be easy for us to be based in Mayagūez, [inaudible], talk to the press 00:13:17.218 --> 00:13:22.125 or talk to the government officials for 15 minutes, get what’s needed to be – 00:13:22.125 --> 00:13:25.646 get them the information they need, and then go back to work at the network. 00:13:25.646 --> 00:13:30.375 One thing that is being floated is having someone – a designated and trained 00:13:30.375 --> 00:13:34.662 representative that’s based at the University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras. 00:13:34.662 --> 00:13:38.576 Possibly, like, I could beg Lorna to come – go do this. 00:13:38.576 --> 00:13:41.250 To have someone designated as our official representative 00:13:41.250 --> 00:13:45.125 in that area that we know and trust. 00:13:45.125 --> 00:13:49.500 The other thing is, right now, when we did this – originally did the Facebook 00:13:49.500 --> 00:13:53.375 and YouTube broadcasts, they were very sporadic in our response. 00:13:53.375 --> 00:13:56.500 And what we really need to do is set up, like, a schedule of 9:00 a.m., 9:00 p.m., 00:13:56.500 --> 00:14:00.125 so we know what needs to be done, when it needs to be done, 00:14:00.125 --> 00:14:03.250 and the press and the public also know this. 00:14:03.250 --> 00:14:06.013 The other thing that was done is we met press in the field. 00:14:06.013 --> 00:14:09.875 I know that there were a couple days when we were actually out installing 00:14:09.875 --> 00:14:14.779 stations that we did have CBS and Ada Monzon come and meet us in the field. 00:14:14.779 --> 00:14:19.375 And another thing that’s important is – and really acknowledge the support 00:14:19.375 --> 00:14:24.250 that you have as a network. And I think the USGS is a huge support. 00:14:24.250 --> 00:14:29.469 And the ANSS relationship was critical during this time, not only of getting 00:14:29.484 --> 00:14:34.570 the instruments out and helping us deal with the response, but also 00:14:34.570 --> 00:14:38.977 helping us deal with the press and the public and how the message – 00:14:38.977 --> 00:14:42.467 things like the aftershock forecast. So the takeaways. 00:14:42.467 --> 00:14:46.794 We have to be clear, concise, and consistent from official sources. 00:14:46.794 --> 00:14:50.000 And we do need the education products for things like aftershock 00:14:50.000 --> 00:14:54.750 forecasts and what is the ANSS. Because those are two gaps that I saw. 00:14:54.750 --> 00:14:57.375 And I think there’s a need to humanize responders. 00:14:57.375 --> 00:14:58.750 Because people think we’re superhumans 00:14:58.750 --> 00:15:00.750 that don’t need to sleep or eat. 00:15:00.750 --> 00:15:04.875 And I think, with modern media, social media and – modern media are the key. 00:15:04.875 --> 00:15:09.584 Twitter, Facebook, Snapchat. And there needs to be some more 00:15:09.591 --> 00:15:14.125 flexibility from the government officials for briefings to make it 00:15:14.125 --> 00:15:16.781 more doable for us as human beings. 00:15:16.781 --> 00:15:19.875 And the other thing – ask for help. It’s there. 00:15:19.875 --> 00:15:22.125 And going to leave it at that. 00:15:24.414 --> 00:15:28.422 [silence] 00:15:28.422 --> 00:15:30.930 - Thank you so much, Elizabeth. That was a fantastic talk. 00:15:30.930 --> 00:15:35.133 And I really love what you said about responders being human beings. 00:15:35.133 --> 00:15:38.250 You know, we often forget that, you know, when you’re working 00:15:38.250 --> 00:15:42.500 in the disaster space, there’s just so much pressure to get work out there 00:15:42.500 --> 00:15:46.313 and work done so quickly, and yet responders do absolutely need rest. 00:15:46.313 --> 00:15:47.750 And there’s not that many of us. 00:15:47.750 --> 00:15:50.867 So that was an incredibly insightful talk. Thank you so, so much.