WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en-US 00:00:02.520 --> 00:00:06.070 I’m going to assume it’s okay. Okay. So my name is Steve Hickman. 00:00:06.070 --> 00:00:09.299 I’m the director of the Earthquake Science Center. 00:00:09.299 --> 00:00:14.035 And welcome to Menlo Park. And welcome to the 17th annual 00:00:14.035 --> 00:00:18.039 USGS Northern California Earthquake Hazards Workshop. 00:00:18.039 --> 00:00:21.130 The goal of this workshop, of course, is to share the latest work that 00:00:21.130 --> 00:00:25.230 we’ve done related to earthquake hazards and science and monitoring 00:00:25.230 --> 00:00:29.030 and risk mitigation activities in the northern California area, 00:00:29.030 --> 00:00:31.900 communicate with our colleagues, so that we can develop 00:00:31.900 --> 00:00:36.160 state-of-the-art earthquake hazard products for northern California. 00:00:36.160 --> 00:00:39.476 This has been an eventful year, as I hardly need to tell you all. 00:00:39.476 --> 00:00:43.750 We’ve had 6.4 magnitude and 7.1 magnitude earthquakes in Ridgecrest, 00:00:43.750 --> 00:00:46.984 California, which you’ll be hearing about during this workshop. 00:00:46.984 --> 00:00:52.790 We also had the 30th anniversary of the 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989. 00:00:52.790 --> 00:00:57.070 It coincided with rollout of the public alerting for ShakeAlert early warning 00:00:57.070 --> 00:01:00.829 system, which you’ll be hearing about. And now we’ve had a series of 00:01:00.829 --> 00:01:04.489 damaging earthquakes in Puerto Rico, which are ongoing and have 00:01:04.489 --> 00:01:08.359 consumed a lot of public concern and of course attention from 00:01:08.359 --> 00:01:12.238 the engineering and response and scientific communities. 00:01:12.238 --> 00:01:16.350 I do represent the Earthquake Science Center, and we have about 00:01:16.350 --> 00:01:20.579 150 scientists, technicians, and administration people here – 00:01:20.579 --> 00:01:24.549 Menlo Park and Moffett Field, which is just about 10 miles south of here. 00:01:24.549 --> 00:01:29.640 We also have an office in Seattle and in Pasadena, California. 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:32.259 If you wander the halls around here, you’ll notice things may seem 00:01:32.259 --> 00:01:34.820 a little bit empty. It’s because most of our staff has 00:01:34.820 --> 00:01:38.759 already moved to our new offices at Moffett Field in Mountain View. 00:01:38.759 --> 00:01:41.849 And, in about two to three years from now, everyone from the USGS 00:01:41.849 --> 00:01:44.860 will be there. We will have vacated this site, and we’ll all 00:01:44.860 --> 00:01:47.776 be down there at Moffett Field. So, in a couple years, maybe three 00:01:47.776 --> 00:01:54.569 years, Northern California Workshop will be there as it was in 2017. 00:01:54.569 --> 00:01:56.670 This move to Moffett has been a great thing for us. 00:01:56.670 --> 00:01:58.265 A lot of collaborations with NASA. 00:01:58.265 --> 00:02:02.089 Bringing all the USGS people into one building – one office – has been great. 00:02:02.089 --> 00:02:05.310 We actually communicate. It’s surprising how hard it is to 00:02:05.310 --> 00:02:08.732 communicate with your colleagues when they’re one building away. 00:02:08.732 --> 00:02:11.765 I want to say the turnout for this workshop has been really nice – 00:02:11.765 --> 00:02:15.360 spectacular. We have 150 people signed up. 00:02:15.360 --> 00:02:18.232 We have representatives from the U.S. Geological Survey; 00:02:18.232 --> 00:02:22.240 from a number of universities; from geologic engineering 00:02:22.240 --> 00:02:26.990 and risk management companies; from water, power, and energy 00:02:26.990 --> 00:02:29.576 agencies; from the Coast Guard; Department of Health and 00:02:29.576 --> 00:02:34.090 Human Services; and also disaster and technical – disaster response 00:02:34.090 --> 00:02:37.890 and technical organizations from the Bay Area. 00:02:37.890 --> 00:02:39.870 So it’s really nice to have this crowd here. 00:02:39.870 --> 00:02:41.950 I really want to thank you for showing up. 00:02:41.950 --> 00:02:44.867 Earthquake hazards were never more important in northern California 00:02:44.867 --> 00:02:48.803 and the Bay Area than they are now. We feel earthquakes all the time. 00:02:48.803 --> 00:02:53.342 It reminds us we live in earthquake country. And thank you for being here. 00:02:53.342 --> 00:02:55.500 And I’m going to turn it over to Keith Knudsen, who is the 00:02:55.500 --> 00:02:58.100 deputy science center director and coordinator for 00:02:58.100 --> 00:03:01.423 Northern California Earthquake Hazards Program. 00:03:03.213 --> 00:03:05.436 [Applause] 00:03:05.461 --> 00:03:07.579 - Is that for me? 00:03:08.690 --> 00:03:10.605 Thanks, Steve. 00:03:10.605 --> 00:03:13.940 So, as Steve mentioned, today I’m wearing the hat – 00:03:13.940 --> 00:03:17.420 my hat of coordinator for northern California for the 00:03:17.420 --> 00:03:19.291 Earthquake Hazards Program of the USGS. 00:03:19.291 --> 00:03:23.060 And, in addition to the goal of this meeting that Steve described, 00:03:23.060 --> 00:03:26.660 which is to get together and share our research, one of the things 00:03:26.660 --> 00:03:30.060 I’m really focusing on – where are the holes in the research? 00:03:30.060 --> 00:03:32.669 What are the outstanding research questions? 00:03:32.669 --> 00:03:36.180 Part of my role as a coordinator is to guide future research, 00:03:36.180 --> 00:03:39.260 both internally and externally. So we’re going to have discussions 00:03:39.260 --> 00:03:43.550 along those lines tomorrow afternoon. And I hope that all of you feel free 00:03:43.550 --> 00:03:46.530 to come up and offer your suggestions and to make comments 00:03:46.530 --> 00:03:50.550 and ask questions during that part of the session. 00:03:50.550 --> 00:03:54.590 So I’m going to go over a few logistics. I’ll start with a safety moment. 00:03:54.590 --> 00:03:58.900 So I used to do this by saying, so we all feel shaking, what do we do? 00:03:58.900 --> 00:04:01.010 But I think I’m going to change that and say, 00:04:01.010 --> 00:04:03.942 so everyone’s phone goes off at the same time. 00:04:04.648 --> 00:04:06.940 What do we do? 00:04:06.940 --> 00:04:09.037 Drop, cover, and hold on. Right. 00:04:09.037 --> 00:04:12.815 And so we’ll drop, cover, and hold on. And then, if we need to evacuate 00:04:12.815 --> 00:04:16.370 the building, there’s a door there with stairs downstairs. 00:04:16.370 --> 00:04:19.329 There’s a door here. I think there’s a door behind this. 00:04:19.329 --> 00:04:24.650 And we’ll all convene in the grassy area right outside. Okay? 00:04:25.354 --> 00:04:27.037 - [inaudible] [laughter] 00:04:27.069 --> 00:04:32.099 - Well, you’ll just have to grab coffee on the way out. 00:04:32.099 --> 00:04:34.319 The bathrooms are to the right around the corner. 00:04:34.319 --> 00:04:36.148 And, if they’re full, you can go downstairs. 00:04:36.148 --> 00:04:38.560 There’s another set of bathrooms downstairs. 00:04:38.560 --> 00:04:43.020 We have food today, and when you registered for the meeting, we’re asking 00:04:43.020 --> 00:04:48.889 $10 for snacks for both days, and then lunch today is pizza, I think. 00:04:48.889 --> 00:04:51.020 And tomorrow is Mediterranean. And if you signed up – 00:04:51.020 --> 00:04:53.699 and only if you’ve signed up and paid your $10 for lunch, 00:04:53.699 --> 00:04:56.449 you can join us and participate in lunch. 00:04:56.449 --> 00:05:00.979 We’ll have poster sessions and lots of time to visit and see posters, 00:05:00.979 --> 00:05:04.180 and they’re in the room right – you go through the doors – 00:05:04.180 --> 00:05:07.346 start down the hallway and take your first right, in the big room 00:05:07.346 --> 00:05:12.719 on your left there. Please, if you brought posters, hang them soon. 00:05:12.719 --> 00:05:17.494 The Menlo Park Fire Department has a fire truck parked out in front. 00:05:17.494 --> 00:05:22.423 So, when you tweet your photo in the fire truck – with the fire truck, 00:05:22.423 --> 00:05:25.779 please be sure to mention what a great meeting this is. 00:05:26.670 --> 00:05:32.629 Authors, please – in order to maintain the sanity of the organizers and the 00:05:32.629 --> 00:05:36.370 session chairs, make sure your talks are loaded well before – talks are 00:05:36.370 --> 00:05:38.729 loaded to this computer here. We’re using this computer. 00:05:38.729 --> 00:05:41.620 We’re not plugging in other computers. Make sure they’re loaded well 00:05:41.620 --> 00:05:47.159 before your talk. And we’re going to – we’re hoping to – as long as the 00:05:47.159 --> 00:05:50.430 technology works, we’re going to record these talks and post them 00:05:50.430 --> 00:05:53.659 on our seminar website. So I’ll be hopefully remembering 00:05:53.659 --> 00:05:57.578 to ask each presenter whether they’re okay with that. 00:05:57.578 --> 00:06:00.270 And the last thing for authors. You should know that there 00:06:00.270 --> 00:06:04.389 are reporters – there’s at least one reporter in the room. 00:06:04.389 --> 00:06:08.650 Whether that changes what you say, that’s up to you. 00:06:08.650 --> 00:06:10.960 And the last thing I’d like to do is recognize the 00:06:10.960 --> 00:06:13.227 organizing committee for this meeting. 00:06:13.227 --> 00:06:16.249 So, Sarah Minson, who will come up here is next, is lead. 00:06:16.249 --> 00:06:20.018 She provides a lot of the brainpower, and especially the energy, so thanks, 00:06:20.018 --> 00:06:23.484 Sarah. And then I’ll read the names of the rest of the people. 00:06:23.484 --> 00:06:27.699 Susan Garcia, Shane Detweiler, Jessica Murray, Belle Philibosian, 00:06:27.699 --> 00:06:32.416 Austin Elliott, Alex Grant, David Schwartz, Annemarie Baltay, 00:06:32.416 --> 00:06:34.710 Tom Hanks, and Scott Haefner. 00:06:34.710 --> 00:06:37.200 So maybe we can start by thanking all of them. 00:06:37.200 --> 00:06:41.188 [Applause] 00:06:41.188 --> 00:06:44.667 Okay. And, Sarah. 00:06:49.770 --> 00:06:53.427 - Hello. And we’re only two minutes behind schedule already. Woo hoo! 00:06:53.427 --> 00:06:55.830 Okay, so I’m just going to very quickly walk you through what you will 00:06:55.830 --> 00:06:58.589 be seeing over the next two days. We are going to start with 00:06:58.589 --> 00:07:02.229 a 30th anniversary of Loma Prieta. And I know what you’re thinking. 00:07:02.229 --> 00:07:06.689 Wasn’t Loma Prieta in 1989? Wasn’t the 30th anniversary in 2019? 00:07:06.689 --> 00:07:10.210 But we did a quantitative analysis, and we determined that October 2019 00:07:10.210 --> 00:07:14.727 is closer to January 2020 than it is to January 2019. 00:07:14.727 --> 00:07:20.289 So, 30th anniversary of Loma Prieta, followed by looking at the Ridgecrest 00:07:20.289 --> 00:07:23.150 sequence, which Steve was talking about as one of the many exciting 00:07:23.150 --> 00:07:26.960 things that happened this year. Especially asking what we – 00:07:26.960 --> 00:07:29.909 what the implications are of such a complex faulting sequence 00:07:29.909 --> 00:07:33.589 for earthquake hazards in northern California. 00:07:33.589 --> 00:07:36.380 We’ll do lightning talks and posters. 00:07:36.380 --> 00:07:40.750 And another one of the very exciting things that happened this year is 00:07:40.750 --> 00:07:43.939 ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system, went live in California. 00:07:43.939 --> 00:07:49.169 Woo hoo! So we are also going to look at the rollout and what exciting 00:07:49.169 --> 00:07:51.610 developments are happening in earthquake early warning. 00:07:51.610 --> 00:07:55.734 That will take us to the end of the day. Everyone go home. Sleep. Come back. 00:07:55.734 --> 00:07:58.689 Then tomorrow morning, we are going to talk about liquefaction, which is 00:07:58.689 --> 00:08:02.879 a very important hazard in northern California, which has not been 00:08:02.879 --> 00:08:05.199 discussed for a few years in this workshop, so we’re going to 00:08:05.199 --> 00:08:07.849 try and bring that back. And then, sadly, this year 00:08:07.849 --> 00:08:11.719 we lost Paul Spudich, so we’re going to have a little get-together 00:08:11.719 --> 00:08:15.220 celebrating his life and career. And then finally, we are going to 00:08:15.220 --> 00:08:17.380 have a mini-workshop inside the workshop. 00:08:17.380 --> 00:08:21.929 It is the Russian nesting doll approach to workshop design. 00:08:21.929 --> 00:08:26.229 We’re going to be looking at the known unknowns of earthquake hazards, 00:08:26.229 --> 00:08:29.240 broken down into what we don’t know about seismic sources, what we 00:08:29.240 --> 00:08:32.320 don’t know about shaking, and what we don’t know about risk. 00:08:32.320 --> 00:08:35.718 And, by talking at five times normal speed, I have gotten us 00:08:35.718 --> 00:08:40.250 back to almost the right time to start. Woo hoo! 00:08:40.275 --> 00:08:43.132 [Applause] 00:08:44.354 --> 00:08:49.180 So, let’s get things started with the 30th anniversary of the Loma Prieta 00:08:49.180 --> 00:08:54.160 earthquake, and our moderator is going to be Carol Prentice. Woo hoo!