WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en-US 00:00:01.520 --> 00:00:07.720 [Silence] 00:00:08.360 --> 00:00:10.660 Good morning, everyone. Thanks for coming to this week’s 00:00:10.660 --> 00:00:14.660 Earthquake Science Seminar. Today we have Gordon Woo 00:00:14.660 --> 00:00:17.980 and Maurizio Gobbato from Risk Management Solutions giving 00:00:17.980 --> 00:00:24.320 the seminar. Next week, we will not have a formal seminar on Wednesday. 00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:29.500 But we will have an informal brown bag lunch on Thursday 00:00:29.500 --> 00:00:33.800 in Moffett Field with Camilla Penney, who is a 00:00:33.800 --> 00:00:38.539 researcher at COMET and visiting at Caltech currently. 00:00:38.539 --> 00:00:43.790 And more details about that will be in your email soon. 00:00:43.790 --> 00:00:46.239 And with that, I will hand it over to 00:00:46.240 --> 00:00:49.480 Sarah Minson to introduce today’s speakers. 00:00:53.560 --> 00:00:57.440 - Hello. Good morning, everyone. Our speakers today come to us 00:00:57.449 --> 00:01:00.629 from RMS. This is Gordon Woo. 00:01:00.629 --> 00:01:06.200 He got his Ph.D. in theoretical physics at MIT and is – has many positions 00:01:06.200 --> 00:01:10.160 but is currently working out of the London RMS office but visits us 00:01:10.160 --> 00:01:12.910 frequently in California and will be speaking with us today. 00:01:12.910 --> 00:01:16.220 Our other speaker is Maurizio Gobbato, who got his Ph.D. in structural 00:01:16.220 --> 00:01:19.630 engineering from UC-San Diego and is currently RMS’ principal 00:01:19.630 --> 00:01:23.880 catastrophe risk modeler right across the bay in Newark. 00:01:23.880 --> 00:01:26.560 Thank you so much. - Thanks very much, Sarah. 00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:30.890 I’d like to start just by explaining how RMS got into all of this in the 00:01:30.890 --> 00:01:34.930 first place. It all started when I had a conversation with Richard Allen 00:01:34.930 --> 00:01:41.700 from Berkeley. This is going back to about 2015 – early 2015. 00:01:41.700 --> 00:01:47.780 And he was explaining to me that, as distinguished a seismologist as he was, 00:01:47.780 --> 00:01:52.140 he spent a lot of time on the road trying to raise money to pay for 00:01:52.140 --> 00:01:58.110 an earthquake early warning system. And I said to him, Richard, 00:01:58.110 --> 00:02:01.170 someone like yourself should not be spending a lot of time 00:02:01.170 --> 00:02:05.180 trying to raise money. His reply was one word – thank you. 00:02:05.180 --> 00:02:07.960 Thank you, he said. [chuckles] 00:02:07.960 --> 00:02:13.520 Now, Maurizio and myself are risk analysts. 00:02:13.520 --> 00:02:19.100 And it’s really the function of risk analysts to do the 00:02:19.100 --> 00:02:22.380 connecting work between the science and stakeholder. 00:02:22.380 --> 00:02:27.390 And also to essentially provide the kind of basis of information 00:02:27.390 --> 00:02:30.340 to make the funding more forthcoming. 00:02:30.340 --> 00:02:34.980 So that’s really where we started in all of this. 00:02:36.140 --> 00:02:39.720 RMS’ office used to be in Menlo Park quite a long time ago. 00:02:39.730 --> 00:02:45.350 It then moved across the bay to Newark, which is not that far 00:02:45.350 --> 00:02:50.070 from the Hayward Fault. And so any work that RMS does 00:02:50.070 --> 00:02:54.459 in the area of earthquake early warning is partly in self-interest. 00:02:54.459 --> 00:02:59.830 That every single staff member of RMS working in the Newark office 00:02:59.830 --> 00:03:02.210 is a potential beneficiary of an earthquake early warning, 00:03:02.210 --> 00:03:07.860 so it’s not just out of altruism that [chuckles] we come here today to try to 00:03:07.860 --> 00:03:12.600 explain the work we’ve done, but that this is much of self-interest as well. 00:03:13.340 --> 00:03:19.420 Of course, you all know about the Hayward earthquake of 1868. 00:03:22.940 --> 00:03:28.520 On the 150th anniversary of the earthquake, RMS produced a report 00:03:28.520 --> 00:03:35.830 on what the loss would be if that earthquake were to occur in 2008. 00:03:35.830 --> 00:03:41.270 And, for those of you who are not familiar with the kind of work that RMS does, 00:03:41.270 --> 00:03:46.849 so we gather information on properties, building styles, age, vulnerability, 00:03:46.849 --> 00:03:53.580 and so on, and make an estimate of loss. And most of it is for the purpose 00:03:53.580 --> 00:03:57.920 of trying to help insurers with their business in terms of 00:03:57.920 --> 00:04:02.240 underwriting and estimating losses and so on. 00:04:02.240 --> 00:04:07.180 But some of the work is used also in the public sector as well. 00:04:09.020 --> 00:04:12.340 I’m sure you’re all familiar with the fact that the idea of an earthquake 00:04:12.340 --> 00:04:16.250 early warning started with this Hayward earthquake. 00:04:16.250 --> 00:04:21.889 And remarkably, the idea came to a physician, Dr. Cooper. 00:04:21.889 --> 00:04:27.740 Now, the Hayward earthquake was 160 ago. 00:04:27.740 --> 00:04:33.190 So why is it – why is it that it’s taken so long for an earthquake early warning 00:04:33.190 --> 00:04:38.860 system to be operating in California? Why has it taken so long? 00:04:38.860 --> 00:04:43.560 Well, lots of reasons. Just technological – the actual 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:48.260 technology to provide an earthquake early warning system superior to this 00:04:48.260 --> 00:04:52.630 kind of telegraph idea that Dr. Cooper had, it’s taken a long time for the 00:04:52.630 --> 00:04:56.620 seismology to reach a stage where this is viable. But it’s not just that. 00:04:56.620 --> 00:05:00.680 It’s also to do with funding. That the cost-effectiveness of 00:05:00.680 --> 00:05:04.190 such a system is not self-evident. It’s not self-evident. 00:05:04.190 --> 00:05:08.540 And so there does need to be work done to help justify it. 00:05:09.370 --> 00:05:14.080 This is the Golden Gate Bridge. The seismic retrofit of this cost 00:05:14.080 --> 00:05:20.680 $645 million. This money could have been raised in Marin County alone. 00:05:20.680 --> 00:05:24.530 Because, north of the Golden Gate Bridge is Marin County, 00:05:24.530 --> 00:05:26.870 which is not just one of the richest counties in California. 00:05:26.870 --> 00:05:30.400 It’s one of the richest counties in the whole of America. 00:05:32.229 --> 00:05:36.680 So I figured out – it’s only – I mean, each individual living in 00:05:36.690 --> 00:05:39.220 Marin County would have to pay a couple thousand dollars. 00:05:39.220 --> 00:05:42.050 And, given how wealthy people are there, it would be a no-brainer 00:05:42.050 --> 00:05:44.970 for them to pay for this. Because, if you imagine the 00:05:44.970 --> 00:05:49.300 Golden Gate Bridge shut for a couple years after an earthquake, 00:05:49.300 --> 00:05:51.280 essentially those people in Marin County would be refugees. 00:05:51.280 --> 00:05:54.720 They’d have to get to San Francisco by ferry. 00:05:54.720 --> 00:05:58.620 So it’s a complete no-brainer, okay, this. However, now, if you take earthquake 00:05:58.630 --> 00:06:03.580 early warning system – and these are costs which were around a few years 00:06:03.580 --> 00:06:07.900 ago, at least, that installation would – for a West Coast system would be about 00:06:07.900 --> 00:06:12.900 $38 million, and annual operating costs about $16 million. 00:06:12.900 --> 00:06:15.860 And you ask the question, is this cost-effective? 00:06:15.860 --> 00:06:19.460 Of course, we have the blind zone. The quality of seismic construction 00:06:19.460 --> 00:06:22.120 in California is very good and getting better. 00:06:22.120 --> 00:06:25.660 I checked this morning on how many unreinforced masonry buildings 00:06:25.660 --> 00:06:29.320 there are in Berkeley. Eight. Eight buildings in Berkeley. 00:06:29.320 --> 00:06:32.320 [chuckles] Unreinforced masonry buildings. 00:06:32.320 --> 00:06:37.830 And also an earthquake early warning system is not really going to be that 00:06:37.830 --> 00:06:40.460 effective if a building collapses. So there are lots of reasons why 00:06:40.460 --> 00:06:44.860 you’d wonder just how effective such a system would be. 00:06:46.700 --> 00:06:51.600 Now, I said before that it’s up to risk analysts to provide the link, 00:06:51.610 --> 00:06:55.860 or the bridge, between the scientific community such as yourselves 00:06:55.860 --> 00:06:59.830 and the many stakeholders there are, which are members of the public, 00:06:59.830 --> 00:07:04.400 or they could be businesses, corporations, and so on. 00:07:04.400 --> 00:07:08.169 And so this is a function which organizations like RMS 00:07:08.169 --> 00:07:11.960 are well-suited to fulfilling. 00:07:13.600 --> 00:07:19.650 The basic framework of analysis, which we’ve undertaken to assess 00:07:19.650 --> 00:07:24.889 the cost-effectiveness has been the standard method of catastrophe risk 00:07:24.889 --> 00:07:29.710 modeling, which involves building a stochastic model of earthquake 00:07:29.710 --> 00:07:34.410 occurrence itself, assessing ground shaking for different earthquakes, 00:07:34.410 --> 00:07:39.500 characterizing damage, and figuring out what the actual cost of all that would be. 00:07:39.500 --> 00:07:41.380 So we make use of all the work done 00:07:41.380 --> 00:07:45.340 on seismic hazard assessment, such as UCERF3. 00:07:45.340 --> 00:07:50.190 Work done on ground shaking and ground motion prediction equations, 00:07:50.190 --> 00:07:54.590 such as done, to a large extent, at Berkeley. 00:07:54.590 --> 00:07:58.490 And also assessing the vulnerability of different 00:07:58.490 --> 00:08:03.080 structures which exist in California. 00:08:03.080 --> 00:08:09.819 Now, to make a bridge to the whole question of how much money is worth 00:08:09.819 --> 00:08:19.451 spending to mitigate this short-term risk, I’m going to turn to the hazard of fire. 00:08:19.451 --> 00:08:25.490 This is a picture of the fire following the Great Earthquake 00:08:25.490 --> 00:08:28.510 of 1906 in San Francisco. 00:08:28.510 --> 00:08:34.539 And, of course, with the wildfires here in California still ongoing and 00:08:34.539 --> 00:08:38.880 have been obviously in the news very significantly over the last few years, 00:08:38.880 --> 00:08:45.010 and especially over the past week, the question one can ask is, 00:08:45.010 --> 00:08:49.640 how much money can or should be spent to mitigate the risk 00:08:49.640 --> 00:08:53.740 of somebody dying from fire? Okay, now, if you take Pacific 00:08:53.740 --> 00:09:00.770 Gas & Electric, okay, a question which could be asked now about PG&E is this. 00:09:00.770 --> 00:09:04.930 Did they ever do a cost-effectiveness study to assess how much money 00:09:04.930 --> 00:09:08.770 they could or should have invested to prevent wildfires 00:09:08.770 --> 00:09:14.120 being caused by the failure of some of their towers? 00:09:14.120 --> 00:09:17.330 And the answer to that question is, they didn’t do any such study. [chuckles] 00:09:17.330 --> 00:09:20.940 No such study was done of whether it’s worth spending the money to do this. 00:09:20.940 --> 00:09:23.680 Of course, Gavin Newsom is threatening all kinds of action 00:09:23.680 --> 00:09:27.200 against PG&E as a result. Okay, but if you want to make 00:09:27.200 --> 00:09:30.000 some kind of judgment as to whether it’s worth spending money 00:09:30.000 --> 00:09:34.540 to mitigate risk, you need to do some kind of cost-effectiveness study. 00:09:34.540 --> 00:09:43.120 Now, if you take fire safety in residential homes in California, 00:09:43.120 --> 00:09:48.850 as of 2011, fire sprinklers have to be installed in new homes – 00:09:48.850 --> 00:09:52.440 new one- and two-family dwelling homes. 00:09:52.440 --> 00:09:57.640 Now, a fire sprinkler is not a smoke alarm system. 00:09:57.640 --> 00:10:02.320 It’s a lot more expensive than that. So the question is, is it worth 00:10:02.320 --> 00:10:06.440 requiring new homes to be equipped with fire sprinklers? 00:10:06.450 --> 00:10:08.820 Is it worth doing that? And the answer is, yes. 00:10:08.820 --> 00:10:14.930 It is worth doing that. And a study was done by the National Institute 00:10:14.930 --> 00:10:18.940 of Standards and Technology for the U.S. Fire Administration. 00:10:18.940 --> 00:10:23.860 And they showed that it was beneficial for a fire sprinkler system 00:10:23.860 --> 00:10:29.390 to be mandatory in new homes. And, for this, you need to have 00:10:29.390 --> 00:10:35.620 a bridge between the cost and the benefits of such mitigating action. 00:10:35.620 --> 00:10:40.790 And, for this purpose, the willingness to pay to save a life from 00:10:40.790 --> 00:10:44.839 a horrible death from fire in a home was set at $8 million. 00:10:44.839 --> 00:10:48.380 This was back in 2005, which would be – in today’s money, 00:10:48.380 --> 00:10:50.390 it would be, like, $10 million. 00:10:50.390 --> 00:10:56.760 And this is pretty much a standard figure for cost-benefit analysis 00:10:56.760 --> 00:11:00.980 in the USA. So it’s pretty much a standard kind of figure. 00:11:00.980 --> 00:11:04.680 So we’ll call it $10 million as of today. 00:11:04.680 --> 00:11:10.200 Now, turning the clock back to 2014, this is just a picture of some of 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:14.390 the damage from the South Napa earthquake. 00:11:16.420 --> 00:11:21.640 It has been shown time and time again that rushing outside buildings is not 00:11:21.640 --> 00:11:25.660 really a good idea because you get hit by debris and all kinds of things. 00:11:25.660 --> 00:11:32.060 It’s much better to try to stay indoors, and you’d be better off that way. 00:11:32.060 --> 00:11:39.160 Also, for the elderly, one of the big worries now, and especially in the 00:11:39.170 --> 00:11:44.589 future, where we have a growing population in California, as elsewhere, 00:11:44.589 --> 00:11:48.760 is that, if you take the elderly population in California, 00:11:48.760 --> 00:11:53.959 about 3.7 million older adults, falls are a leading cause of 00:11:53.960 --> 00:12:00.220 non-fatal hospitalized injuries. And one of the kind of sad aspects 00:12:00.220 --> 00:12:05.040 of what happens if older people fall is that they may well not regain 00:12:05.040 --> 00:12:08.540 their mobility and independence, that they have a higher risk of death. 00:12:08.540 --> 00:12:12.850 So, in particular, what we do not want older people doing in the event of 00:12:12.850 --> 00:12:17.360 feeling ground shaking is for them to be going downstairs or otherwise 00:12:17.360 --> 00:12:20.250 running the risk of falling and being injured. 00:12:20.250 --> 00:12:23.640 So here, again, this is one of the plus factors of an earthquake 00:12:23.640 --> 00:12:27.320 early warning system, that older people in particular 00:12:27.320 --> 00:12:30.840 can be assisted with this kind of warning. 00:12:30.840 --> 00:12:34.880 Now, the standard mantra of an event of feeling ground shaking is 00:12:34.880 --> 00:12:39.940 drop, cover, and hold. This slide, which has “duck, cover, 00:12:39.950 --> 00:12:44.410 and hold” on it actually comes from PHIVOLCS in the Philippines. 00:12:44.410 --> 00:12:47.620 So this is what’s – their kind of poster 00:12:47.620 --> 00:12:50.890 for what to do in the event of an earthquake there. 00:12:50.890 --> 00:12:54.870 Now, one of the aspects of an earthquake early warning system, 00:12:54.870 --> 00:12:59.910 which I think has not really been, to my knowledge anyway, 00:12:59.910 --> 00:13:05.529 discussed that much is whether it might be advisable to try to 00:13:05.529 --> 00:13:10.680 encourage people to – yes, to drop, by all means, but then to try to take 00:13:10.680 --> 00:13:14.410 the extra time afforded by an earthquake warning system to 00:13:14.410 --> 00:13:19.660 find a natural place to duck under. Okay, because, like, if you did have, 00:13:19.660 --> 00:13:22.930 for example, five or 10 seconds, or maybe even 15 seconds, 00:13:22.930 --> 00:13:26.760 of earthquake early warning, then rather than just dropping down 00:13:26.760 --> 00:13:30.890 where you are and putting your hands over your head and praying or whatever, 00:13:30.890 --> 00:13:35.589 you could say, well, I’m going to – there’s a table over there. 00:13:35.589 --> 00:13:37.810 I’m going to go over to that table there and duck under that table. 00:13:37.810 --> 00:13:41.680 So, if the ceiling collapses, then I could be saved. 00:13:41.680 --> 00:13:44.780 So that’s something I’ll come back to in a second. 00:13:45.840 --> 00:13:53.960 This slide comes from a paper by Kuyuk and Allen, which gives warning times 00:13:53.960 --> 00:13:57.400 [inaudible] – this is from the epicenter. And so I had a brief conversation with 00:13:57.400 --> 00:14:03.190 Sarah a minute ago about this slide. There is an issue to do with this 00:14:03.190 --> 00:14:06.290 connected with false alarms, which I won’t go into. 00:14:06.290 --> 00:14:12.070 But if we could just presume that this kind of situation is valid, 00:14:12.070 --> 00:14:22.120 that according to the interstation distance, then you will have a certain 00:14:22.120 --> 00:14:24.910 amount of warning time, which increases with distance 00:14:24.910 --> 00:14:29.130 from the earthquake epicenter. Then what we have is this kind of 00:14:29.130 --> 00:14:35.340 situation, where, on the slide, DCH stands for – well, it’s an 00:14:35.340 --> 00:14:42.070 acronym for drop, cover, and hold. So the proportion of people who could 00:14:42.070 --> 00:14:47.730 actually make their way to a safe place. So if you take this schematic 00:14:47.730 --> 00:14:51.720 of an apartment. A one – an apartment on the same level. 00:14:51.720 --> 00:14:53.480 There are different rooms in the apartment. 00:14:53.480 --> 00:14:58.990 And so the idea here is that, if you had, say, 15 – if you had eight seconds, say. 00:14:58.990 --> 00:15:01.930 If you had eight seconds, then you could sort of drop on the ground and 00:15:01.930 --> 00:15:05.910 then crawl for eight seconds or – one of these days, it might be possible 00:15:05.910 --> 00:15:09.430 for people to have a message saying, you’ve got eight seconds before 00:15:09.430 --> 00:15:13.100 the earthquake shaking will start. Okay, but the idea here is that, 00:15:13.100 --> 00:15:16.180 rather than just dropping down and hoping that the ceiling doesn’t 00:15:16.180 --> 00:15:20.510 fall on top of you, you could try to find an optimal place, which is like 00:15:20.510 --> 00:15:24.810 some kind of sturdy table, where, even if the ceiling did fall down, 00:15:24.810 --> 00:15:28.720 you wouldn’t be seriously injured. Okay, so the idea here is that, 00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:31.899 in one second, you’ve got no choice but just to – just to essentially 00:15:31.899 --> 00:15:33.889 drop down where you are and hope for the best. 00:15:33.889 --> 00:15:36.790 Eight seconds, you might be able to find a good place in the same room. 00:15:36.790 --> 00:15:40.649 In 15 seconds, you might be able to find a good place in the room next-door. 00:15:40.649 --> 00:15:43.741 And if you’re lucky enough to have 22 seconds, then you 00:15:43.741 --> 00:15:47.480 might be able to find the best place on the same floor. 00:15:47.480 --> 00:15:50.940 And often, it may be the case that the best place is a dining room table. 00:15:50.949 --> 00:15:54.730 Okay, they’re often sturdy. And a dining room table might 00:15:54.730 --> 00:15:59.680 accommodate some members of a family, if not the whole family. 00:15:59.680 --> 00:16:06.910 A few weeks ago, I happened to be at a party close to San Francisco airport. 00:16:06.910 --> 00:16:10.320 And they were lucky enough to have this very big dining room table there. 00:16:10.320 --> 00:16:16.110 So, if you had a large family there, that, in the event of receiving a warning – 00:16:16.110 --> 00:16:19.339 like, one day if it said you’ve got, say, 15 seconds before the 00:16:19.339 --> 00:16:21.480 shaking starts, well, great. Then the best – your whole 00:16:21.480 --> 00:16:24.680 family can duck under this table. And even if the chandeliers come down, 00:16:24.680 --> 00:16:29.020 if the ceiling falls down, okay, they should avoid serious injury. 00:16:29.020 --> 00:16:33.220 Okay, so it’s – I think this is one of the things which may happen in the future. 00:16:33.220 --> 00:16:35.980 And this is one of the reasons why I think, once earthquake early 00:16:35.980 --> 00:16:43.360 warning becomes widely accepted and adopted in California, then this 00:16:43.360 --> 00:16:45.960 whole mantra about, should it be drop, cover, and hold or duck, cover, 00:16:45.960 --> 00:16:50.860 and hold, will become a key question. Because these precious seconds could 00:16:50.860 --> 00:16:56.649 be used to find a really good place to duck under, so that, even if the 00:16:56.649 --> 00:16:58.579 worst-case scenario happened, like the ceiling came down, 00:16:58.579 --> 00:17:02.880 the chandeliers came down, the ceiling came down, that, 00:17:02.880 --> 00:17:07.060 most likely – well, most likely those under the table would 00:17:07.060 --> 00:17:12.440 survive fairly unscathed, even if the dining room table was a write-off. 00:17:12.440 --> 00:17:14.860 But anyway, that’s something for the future. 00:17:14.869 --> 00:17:18.139 But, in a way, it’s one of the consequences of an earthquake early 00:17:18.139 --> 00:17:21.149 warning system, which I think is very exciting for the future, which is this – 00:17:21.149 --> 00:17:24.559 that we can move towards a system where not only will we be 00:17:24.559 --> 00:17:28.690 trying to prevent deaths from earthquake, but we’ll try to prevent 00:17:28.690 --> 00:17:35.039 serious injuries as well. So fewer head injuries, fewer broken bones, and so on. 00:17:35.039 --> 00:17:39.970 I won’t go into the kind of technical detail of the calculation that much, 00:17:39.970 --> 00:17:44.780 but the kind of analysis which has been done has been to consider 00:17:44.780 --> 00:17:49.500 buildings of different construction classes with different damage ratios. 00:17:49.500 --> 00:17:52.920 So my colleague Maurizio will talk about some aspects 00:17:52.920 --> 00:17:56.920 of this following my summary presentation. 00:17:58.460 --> 00:18:05.780 And we have – the lambda here is the ratio of what the – is essentially 00:18:05.789 --> 00:18:11.509 is the reduction in fatalities if you manage to find a safe place as opposed 00:18:11.509 --> 00:18:16.279 to not finding a safe place. So what I’ll do is just summarize 00:18:16.279 --> 00:18:19.359 some of the kind of results from all this, that we start off 00:18:19.360 --> 00:18:24.760 by using a standard output from UCERF3. We have the – 00:18:24.760 --> 00:18:30.220 kind of the main active faults in California. 00:18:30.220 --> 00:18:36.529 From the UCERF3 publication in BSSA of 2015, we have these ranges 00:18:36.529 --> 00:18:49.860 of probability for events of sizes 7, 7.5, and 9 for the faults, which are listed. 00:18:49.860 --> 00:18:54.549 Now, this is obviously a subset of all the faults. 00:18:54.549 --> 00:19:04.369 Again, the purpose of this study was really just to try to assess this 00:19:04.369 --> 00:19:17.380 proposition that there was enough scenarios for which the saving in life 00:19:17.380 --> 00:19:23.730 corresponding to them if these events occurred would be sufficient to justify 00:19:23.730 --> 00:19:27.380 the expenditure of the earthquake early warning system. 00:19:28.100 --> 00:19:32.999 Now, for those particular scenarios, if an earthquake occurred during 00:19:32.999 --> 00:19:39.470 the daytime on a weekday, then you might get this reduction 00:19:39.470 --> 00:19:42.129 in number of lives saved indoors. And these would be mainly from 00:19:42.129 --> 00:19:48.879 people in offices of different types. Because the actual nighttime deaths – 00:19:48.879 --> 00:19:51.729 people are living in their wooden houses – 00:19:51.729 --> 00:19:56.899 is, by comparison, much smaller. 00:19:56.899 --> 00:20:01.869 One of the main contributors to the effectiveness of an earthquake early 00:20:01.869 --> 00:20:06.580 warning system is hopefully that there will be a lot fewer or a significantly 00:20:06.580 --> 00:20:14.350 smaller number of ignitions in the event of an earthquake. 00:20:14.350 --> 00:20:17.970 Because we all know from the wildfires of the last few days, and the last few 00:20:17.970 --> 00:20:22.749 years, indeed, okay, that the actual property loss from fire 00:20:22.749 --> 00:20:26.710 can be astronomical. Okay, now, just for one scenario alone, 00:20:26.710 --> 00:20:31.039 this is a magnitude 7.8 southern California ShakeOut scenario, 00:20:31.039 --> 00:20:34.809 1,600 ignitions might result from that. 00:20:34.809 --> 00:20:38.920 Half of them outside the blind zone, a quarter gas-related. 00:20:40.240 --> 00:20:46.420 For this particular scenario, the burnt area had a value of $40 billion. 00:20:46.429 --> 00:20:50.190 If 1% of the ignitions might be averted through earthquake early warning 00:20:50.190 --> 00:20:54.320 ignition control, the loss saving might be about 400 million. 00:20:54.320 --> 00:20:58.480 And there’s a 10% chance of this scenario occurring in 30 years. 00:20:58.480 --> 00:21:04.600 So the expected saving from this would – over a 30-year period 00:21:04.600 --> 00:21:08.509 would be about – would be $40 million, which would cover the cost of installing 00:21:08.509 --> 00:21:12.979 an earthquake early warning system. So just the fire loss mitigation itself 00:21:12.979 --> 00:21:16.450 would justify spending the money on the capital equipment 00:21:16.450 --> 00:21:20.460 to install an earthquake early warning system. 00:21:20.460 --> 00:21:24.560 Just moving on, so these are sort of fairly basic calculations that the 00:21:24.560 --> 00:21:26.820 operational cost of an earthquake early warning system. 00:21:26.830 --> 00:21:31.710 And this actually does include Pacific Northwest as well as California. 00:21:31.710 --> 00:21:37.119 This is estimated to be roughly about $500 million – 30 times 16 00:21:37.119 --> 00:21:43.059 is roughly $500 million. And the willingness to pay from the 00:21:43.059 --> 00:21:47.720 fire example is $10 million to save a life. 00:21:47.720 --> 00:21:50.710 So what we’re looking at is, we want to be reasonably confident 00:21:50.710 --> 00:21:56.940 that we could save 50 fatalities over a period of 30 years. 00:21:57.360 --> 00:22:02.360 Now, this may not sound much, but then if you put this into context 00:22:02.369 --> 00:22:08.409 of the past, over the past 60 years, which is double the 30 years I’ve been 00:22:08.409 --> 00:22:11.279 talking about, there have only been somewhat less than 00:22:11.279 --> 00:22:20.049 200 earthquake deaths in California. Which, in a way, is a – is really – 00:22:20.049 --> 00:22:23.409 is an accolade for the engineering community that the quality of 00:22:23.409 --> 00:22:25.950 construction has been especially good that the number of deaths 00:22:25.950 --> 00:22:29.840 has been less than 200. If you take the Napa earthquake 00:22:29.840 --> 00:22:34.950 of 2014, there was only one death in that earthquake. 00:22:34.950 --> 00:22:39.509 One unfortunate lady died after being hit in the head by a TV. 00:22:39.509 --> 00:22:43.779 And, of course, TVs – the old-fashioned TVs, 00:22:43.779 --> 00:22:47.580 which used to be sort of freestanding are getting less and less common. 00:22:47.580 --> 00:22:50.210 They’re more or less – they’re more – so more are mounted these days. 00:22:50.210 --> 00:22:52.499 So I think these kind of tragic accidents, I suppose, 00:22:52.500 --> 00:22:55.620 are less likely to occur in the future. 00:22:55.620 --> 00:23:01.640 And, of course, apart from the reduction in fatalities, 00:23:01.640 --> 00:23:08.980 there are lots of other benefits, most of which are less tangible. 00:23:08.980 --> 00:23:11.679 I discussed reduced fire following earthquake. 00:23:11.680 --> 00:23:15.160 Fewer industrial accidents. Fewer road, rail, aviation accidents. 00:23:15.160 --> 00:23:20.299 Of course, the BART has invested already in an earthquake early warning system, 00:23:20.300 --> 00:23:23.020 which those like myself, you travel on the BART, 00:23:23.020 --> 00:23:26.500 so should be grateful for. 00:23:26.500 --> 00:23:31.799 There will be fewer injuries amongst the population who happen to be outside. 00:23:31.799 --> 00:23:36.679 Less disruption of hospital and school schedules. 00:23:36.679 --> 00:23:41.909 More resilient economic recovery. Less PTSD – post-traumatic stress 00:23:41.909 --> 00:23:45.409 disorder, which, of course, is hard to estimate, but it’s – 00:23:45.409 --> 00:23:49.099 after major earthquakes, it’s not well-known that the prevalence 00:23:49.099 --> 00:23:51.460 of PTSD can be very significant. 00:23:51.460 --> 00:23:56.179 It can be 20, even 30, percent. It can be extremely high. 00:23:56.180 --> 00:24:01.060 And greater peace of mind amongst the local population as well as visitors. 00:24:01.060 --> 00:24:05.640 So earthquake early warning should not be just a benefit for those who live 00:24:05.649 --> 00:24:11.999 and work in southern California, but it should be a benefit for all those who 00:24:12.000 --> 00:24:17.520 happen to be visiting California from out of state, or indeed, from abroad. 00:24:18.600 --> 00:24:25.400 With reference to the second item on fewer industrial accidents, 00:24:25.400 --> 00:24:33.260 a point I’d like to make is that the future funding of an earthquake 00:24:33.269 --> 00:24:36.009 early warning system is by no means guaranteed – the operational – 00:24:36.009 --> 00:24:41.979 the annual operational cost. And quite apart from getting 00:24:41.979 --> 00:24:49.239 contributions for funding from Washington and also from Sacramento, 00:24:49.239 --> 00:24:54.820 there is a need for the private sector to make a contribution to the operation 00:24:54.820 --> 00:24:59.629 of an earthquake early warning system because every single business which 00:24:59.629 --> 00:25:03.960 operates in California is a beneficiary of an earthquake early warning system, 00:25:03.960 --> 00:25:08.789 irrespective of how well-constructed a particular office or factory is. 00:25:08.789 --> 00:25:15.820 The fact is, that all staff members of a corporation based in California 00:25:15.820 --> 00:25:21.220 will be traveling in and around the state, and wherever they are, they will benefit 00:25:21.220 --> 00:25:23.920 from having this earthquake early warning system. 00:25:23.920 --> 00:25:27.720 So, before I hand over to Maurizio, I just would like to make another point 00:25:27.720 --> 00:25:32.580 about RMS’ involvement in all of this, which was that, when I had my 00:25:32.580 --> 00:25:36.110 conversation with Richard Allen about the funding for an earthquake 00:25:36.110 --> 00:25:40.850 early warning system in California, I did say to him that, at RMS, we have 00:25:40.850 --> 00:25:45.149 a corporate social responsibility officer. And, in fact, when I originally got 00:25:45.149 --> 00:25:50.969 involved in this back in 2015, my idea was that we at RMS might be able to 00:25:50.969 --> 00:25:56.469 reach out to other corporate social responsibility officers in the Bay Area 00:25:56.469 --> 00:26:02.869 and elsewhere to try to encourage corporations within the state to make 00:26:02.869 --> 00:26:08.090 a contribution towards the operating costs of an earthquake warning system, 00:26:08.090 --> 00:26:12.409 which would benefit all their employees, apart from being an altruistic 00:26:12.409 --> 00:26:19.989 gesture to help all those who will live and work in California. 00:26:19.989 --> 00:26:26.029 So I’d just like to end my talk with – just with this basic message, 00:26:26.029 --> 00:26:30.700 which is that it’s great that a lot of progress has been made on the 00:26:30.700 --> 00:26:33.619 development of an earthquake early warning system in California, 00:26:33.619 --> 00:26:39.249 but this system should be operating in perpetuity. 00:26:39.249 --> 00:26:43.200 We want the system to be always operating, forever. 00:26:43.200 --> 00:26:47.440 Okay, and this cannot be guaranteed without private sector funding. 00:26:47.450 --> 00:26:54.619 Okay, we can’t guarantee that the president will – or Congress – 00:26:54.619 --> 00:26:56.669 obviously President Trump wants to slash the budget for 00:26:56.669 --> 00:26:59.740 earthquake early warning. We all know that. 00:26:59.740 --> 00:27:04.360 I see his picture is still out there. I saw [chuckles] – out in the front. 00:27:05.120 --> 00:27:09.799 But there’s no guarantee that there will be funding for the system, say, 00:27:09.799 --> 00:27:12.369 in Sacramento, by the state legislature or whatever. 00:27:12.369 --> 00:27:18.999 Okay, so I do feel that, going forward, that there does need to be this 00:27:18.999 --> 00:27:26.100 appreciation by corporate California that a contribution to the operating costs 00:27:26.100 --> 00:27:29.669 of an earthquake early warning system is something that they can do in the spirit 00:27:29.669 --> 00:27:33.339 of corporate social responsibility, which will not only benefit all 00:27:33.339 --> 00:27:36.629 their staff, but also all the people of California. 00:27:36.629 --> 00:27:40.399 Okay, so that’s my way just of – why Maurizio and I are actually 00:27:40.399 --> 00:27:45.529 here today was actually partly just to put all this in the context of fundraising – 00:27:45.529 --> 00:27:49.100 not just now, for the future. Because, again, it’s wonderful to see 00:27:49.100 --> 00:27:57.210 this MyShake app released just recently, but we want this to be part of 00:27:57.210 --> 00:28:01.780 California culture forevermore. Okay, thanks. 00:28:01.780 --> 00:28:04.420 And I’ll just pass over to my colleague. 00:28:05.840 --> 00:28:09.860 I should say that, after Maurizio finishes, we both can take questions. 00:28:12.140 --> 00:28:14.700 - Thank you, Gordon. Good morning. 00:28:16.240 --> 00:28:19.820 So my second part of the talk is basically trying to give you some ideas 00:28:19.820 --> 00:28:24.749 on how I was able to provide Gordon those numbers in terms of injuries 00:28:24.749 --> 00:28:28.759 or fatality reductions. For the sake of time here, 00:28:28.759 --> 00:28:33.929 I’m not going to show all the scenarios that I ran for him – for us. 00:28:33.929 --> 00:28:41.360 I’ll just focus mainly on six cases that I think are interesting to show. 00:28:41.360 --> 00:28:47.039 But, before I do that, I would like to give you an idea on – so, how can we 00:28:47.039 --> 00:28:53.509 use our in-house catastrophe modeling software to come up with a cost-benefit, 00:28:53.509 --> 00:28:58.349 or an idea for could be a cost-benefit, for an early warning system? 00:28:58.349 --> 00:29:03.730 So the idea was to use our commercial software for workers’ compensation 00:29:03.730 --> 00:29:10.509 in the United States, where we are able to provide a loss caused by injuries 00:29:10.509 --> 00:29:16.380 or fatalities. We have a six-injury scale from medical only to fatalities. 00:29:16.380 --> 00:29:20.219 And the software, basically what it does, at each analyzed location, it comes up 00:29:20.219 --> 00:29:25.340 with the proportion of people in each of those injury levels and the associated 00:29:25.340 --> 00:29:31.470 cost. Now, in this presentation, the cost is not the main topic. 00:29:31.470 --> 00:29:36.489 So I will focus more on the casualty rates – so little cr-i, which essentially 00:29:36.489 --> 00:29:41.780 are a byproduct of our casualty vulnerability functions and tell you 00:29:41.780 --> 00:29:45.499 what’s the proportion of people in each injury level bucket. 00:29:45.499 --> 00:29:49.139 And n-sub-p is the number of people at a given analyzed location. 00:29:49.139 --> 00:29:51.669 So the exposed population at a given building, for example, 00:29:51.669 --> 00:29:55.440 affected by a given earthquake footprint. 00:29:55.440 --> 00:29:58.669 And so the software basically does that at the location level, 00:29:58.669 --> 00:30:03.160 and it aggregates up to postal code, county, or portfolio level. 00:30:04.020 --> 00:30:08.980 So, in terms of number of people – so when I ran the analysis for this study, 00:30:08.980 --> 00:30:13.960 I was looking at daytime versus nighttime event occurrences. 00:30:13.960 --> 00:30:20.660 So, for the – for event occurrences during nighttime, I looked a ZIP code 00:30:20.669 --> 00:30:23.519 level in terms of resolution – residential population of the 00:30:23.520 --> 00:30:26.620 United States, and trended it to the 2019. 00:30:26.620 --> 00:30:31.119 So, overall, is roughly 39 million-plus in California. 00:30:31.119 --> 00:30:37.519 For the time – for daytime occurrences, I was looking at the working 00:30:37.519 --> 00:30:43.679 population, and for that, we have an in-house exposure database, 00:30:43.679 --> 00:30:47.399 which we call Worker’s Compensation Industrial Exposure Database, 00:30:47.399 --> 00:30:54.299 which has, by line of business, by ZIP code, the number of employees 00:30:54.299 --> 00:30:56.479 across the entire state of California. 00:30:56.479 --> 00:30:59.779 Together with that, though, I would – since I was not just interested in 00:30:59.779 --> 00:31:03.070 workers’ compensation benefits in terms of reduction of fatalities 00:31:03.070 --> 00:31:06.919 and injuries, so I had to pair what I call the residual – 00:31:06.919 --> 00:31:12.309 or residential non-working population. And I got that from the 00:31:12.309 --> 00:31:17.140 American Community Survey. And, again, it’s trended to 2019. 00:31:19.029 --> 00:31:21.640 So it was a – for the daytime, it’s a combination of people being 00:31:21.649 --> 00:31:25.409 in commercial or industrial occupancy type of buildings. 00:31:25.409 --> 00:31:29.710 And people still in residential, or educational – for example, 00:31:29.710 --> 00:31:33.599 people in school. For the first part, one important thing 00:31:33.599 --> 00:31:36.869 of the model is that we vary the percentage of people at work as – 00:31:36.869 --> 00:31:40.959 according to the time of the day. And, again, that’s from 00:31:40.959 --> 00:31:47.440 the U.S. Census as well. So those are publicly available curves. 00:31:47.440 --> 00:31:52.509 And this is just to make you aware of the fact that the numbers you are going 00:31:52.509 --> 00:31:57.139 to see in a little bit are a daytime average. So I’m not looking for what I’m going 00:31:57.139 --> 00:32:02.239 to show at peak or worst-case scenario. So it’s somehow an average of these 00:32:02.240 --> 00:32:05.580 curves in terms of people being in office. 00:32:06.980 --> 00:32:11.559 So, in terms of the six scenarios that you’re going to see, I looked at the – 00:32:11.560 --> 00:32:15.000 sort of a today replica of the 1906. 00:32:16.940 --> 00:32:20.680 A magnitude 7 along the Hayward Fault and one along the Calaveras Fault. 00:32:20.680 --> 00:32:22.300 This is for the Bay Area. 00:32:22.300 --> 00:32:29.159 And, for the Los Angeles area, I looked at a replica of the 1994 Northridge 00:32:29.159 --> 00:32:34.349 as worst-case scenario for an early warning, let’s say, and you see why. 00:32:34.349 --> 00:32:40.369 And as well as a replica of the 1857 Fort Tejon – 7.9. 00:32:40.369 --> 00:32:46.330 And the 7.5 along the San Jacinto Fault. And also an extra one on the Sierra Madre, 00:32:46.330 --> 00:32:53.970 I think, which I used for – to do some sensitivity studies on 00:32:53.970 --> 00:32:58.989 benefit versus blind zone radius. And I’ll show that in a second. 00:32:58.989 --> 00:33:02.039 As Gordon showed earlier, all the numbers you’re going to see here are 00:33:02.039 --> 00:33:07.440 based on the work done by Gordon and Richard Allen and the Kuyuk 00:33:07.440 --> 00:33:12.820 and Allen paper from 2013. Gordon had a slide earlier where 00:33:12.820 --> 00:33:18.409 we looked at a blind zone of roughly 25 kilometers, which, according to 00:33:18.409 --> 00:33:22.929 this plot, corresponds to an average interstation distance of 20 kilometers, 00:33:22.929 --> 00:33:26.999 and that’s basically why – the reason why we chose that is because we 00:33:26.999 --> 00:33:29.879 focused on the Bay Area and this Los Angeles area, which is roughly – 00:33:29.879 --> 00:33:37.629 that’s what was in [inaudible] the 20 kilometers average interstation distance. 00:33:37.629 --> 00:33:42.029 But for – I have also one slide in which I vary the radius of the blind zone. 00:33:42.029 --> 00:33:48.600 So I will consider distances or radii from 20 up to 50 kilometers. 00:33:49.880 --> 00:33:54.039 So in terms of workflow, first of all, we created our baseline. 00:33:54.039 --> 00:33:57.669 So what if there is no earthquake early warning? 00:33:57.669 --> 00:34:01.499 So we – for nighttime, we were estimating the number of injuries 00:34:01.499 --> 00:34:06.190 and fatalities for people in residential settings, which, in California, 00:34:06.190 --> 00:34:10.250 are 95% wood buildings – SFDs and MFDs – 00:34:10.250 --> 00:34:13.340 single-family dwellings and multi-family dwellings. 00:34:14.210 --> 00:34:18.040 For the daytime, we looked at working and non-working population. 00:34:18.050 --> 00:34:21.919 So there was a mixture of commercial, industrial, and residential buildings. 00:34:21.920 --> 00:34:24.859 And that was our baseline. 00:34:26.080 --> 00:34:30.440 Then we looked at what I called average probability of collapse of 00:34:30.450 --> 00:34:35.500 our analyzed building locations. Average, meaning – because we were 00:34:35.500 --> 00:34:42.580 looking at ZIP-level resolution, and it was – so used some of our 00:34:42.580 --> 00:34:47.220 inventory assumptions. So, in terms of year built, 00:34:47.220 --> 00:34:52.460 construction type, occupancy, height, et cetera, et cetera. 00:34:53.730 --> 00:34:57.740 To note that when we – all the locations we think that that blind zone, 00:34:57.750 --> 00:35:02.859 those 25 kilometers, didn’t – were cut off from receiving any 00:35:02.859 --> 00:35:08.089 earthquake early warning benefit, based on the numerical simulations. 00:35:08.089 --> 00:35:12.920 As well as the buildings that were modeled as collapsed based on that 00:35:12.920 --> 00:35:17.970 collapse probability function were not assigned any earthquake early 00:35:17.970 --> 00:35:23.839 warning system benefit in terms of reduction of injuries and fatalities. 00:35:23.839 --> 00:35:28.700 Then what we did was performing 500,000 random realization of potential 00:35:28.700 --> 00:35:30.640 earthquake early warning system reductions at each 00:35:30.640 --> 00:35:36.089 of the analyzed locations. Reductions in terms of injuries, 00:35:36.089 --> 00:35:40.369 for five injuries levels that we had, and fatalities. 00:35:40.369 --> 00:35:49.050 And to do that, we kind of randomized, among other things, that lambda 00:35:49.050 --> 00:35:53.830 coefficient that Gordon showed earlier briefly, which is a function of 00:35:53.830 --> 00:35:57.470 the construction class, level of damage, and the injury level. 00:35:57.470 --> 00:36:00.720 So the – I don’t want to go too much into detail here, but we assumed that 00:36:00.720 --> 00:36:04.079 we didn’t have a perfect knowledge on what was the proportion of people 00:36:04.080 --> 00:36:10.420 that could find a safer spot or being – or duck, cover, and hold, let’s say, 00:36:10.420 --> 00:36:12.300 and get some benefit out of that. 00:36:12.309 --> 00:36:16.030 So there was some uncertainty around that that we introduced. 00:36:16.030 --> 00:36:22.690 In the end, what we can get out of this workflow was probabilistic distribution 00:36:22.690 --> 00:36:29.069 functions for the relative or absolute reduction for the number 00:36:29.069 --> 00:36:32.710 of injuries or fatalities. So, from that, we can get an expected 00:36:32.710 --> 00:36:38.440 value, let’s say, for the relative reduction or absolute reduction. 00:36:38.440 --> 00:36:43.560 Or some confidence bounds or 90th – or the 5th and 90th – 95th percentiles, 00:36:43.560 --> 00:36:45.890 for example, of those distributions. 00:36:45.890 --> 00:36:49.950 And, in the slides that are coming, I will just focus on the 00:36:49.950 --> 00:36:53.300 expected values of those PDFs. 00:36:54.200 --> 00:36:57.900 So I have a few slides that will look similar to what you see now, 00:36:57.900 --> 00:37:02.599 and this is for the first scenario that we ran for the Bay Area 00:37:02.600 --> 00:37:07.540 as a replica of the 1906 7.9 earthquake. 00:37:07.540 --> 00:37:11.460 While we were estimating without early warning, the range of fatalities 00:37:11.460 --> 00:37:18.099 that can go from 150 to 750. And also, for the next slides to come, 00:37:18.099 --> 00:37:23.309 normally the lower number is the nighttime value, and the highest 00:37:23.309 --> 00:37:28.800 number is the average or – daytime average during a weekday. 00:37:30.060 --> 00:37:32.840 Same thing for the serious injuries – 300 to 800. 00:37:32.840 --> 00:37:36.240 Now, for this particular scenario, assuming that the fault rupture starts 00:37:36.250 --> 00:37:41.630 from the – from this epicenter here, which is historical pinpoint, we have 00:37:41.630 --> 00:37:46.740 roughly 45 to 55% of the fatalities and serious injuries within that blind zone, 00:37:46.740 --> 00:37:48.980 depending if you look at the nighttime setting or daytime setting 00:37:48.980 --> 00:37:53.040 and you account for commuting fluxes. 00:37:53.670 --> 00:37:58.580 For this scenario, we estimated that we could save roughly 15 to 60 fatalities 00:37:58.599 --> 00:38:03.750 and 30 to 70 serious injuries. Which – and, overall, if I do a – 00:38:03.750 --> 00:38:07.769 take an average across fatalities and injuries, and daytime and nighttime, 00:38:07.769 --> 00:38:10.789 roughly it’s an 8 to 10% reduction in injuries – 00:38:10.789 --> 00:38:14.109 serious injuries and fatalities for this type of scenario. 00:38:14.109 --> 00:38:19.660 And that’s the type of results that I was providing Gordon, scenario by scenario 00:38:19.660 --> 00:38:27.220 case, so he could make some judgment on what the potential benefits could be. 00:38:29.420 --> 00:38:33.820 If we move to the Hayward Fault, so that’s the second scenario we ran, again, 00:38:33.820 --> 00:38:38.160 with the fault rupture starting from the north end near Berkeley, 00:38:38.160 --> 00:38:40.619 a similar number of fatalities here. 00:38:40.620 --> 00:38:45.819 So 160 to 500 – that’s consistent with what we had on the other slide. 00:38:47.360 --> 00:38:53.080 The reduction, though, in this case, it’s, like, 5 to 10% if I look at an average 00:38:53.089 --> 00:38:55.990 aggregate across injury levels and fatalities. 00:38:55.990 --> 00:39:00.799 But, if we are assuming that the fault starts rupturing around 00:39:00.800 --> 00:39:05.320 Hayward or Fremont, then this percentage reduction, it’s cut roughly 00:39:05.320 --> 00:39:09.840 in half in our simulation. So it goes down to 2-1/2 to 5%. 00:39:11.160 --> 00:39:12.960 If we move to the Los Angeles area, 00:39:12.960 --> 00:39:18.140 and we looked at the historical 1994 Northridge. 00:39:18.140 --> 00:39:21.840 Especially in nighttime, there is basically no benefit. 00:39:21.840 --> 00:39:27.340 Everybody is inside the blind zone, or 90% of all of the people is inside 00:39:27.340 --> 00:39:32.060 the blind zone, plus most of the people are in residential settings. 00:39:33.300 --> 00:39:36.580 There isn’t much benefit anyway. 00:39:36.580 --> 00:39:40.059 The numbers of fatalities we thought earthquake early warning, 00:39:40.060 --> 00:39:44.740 nighttime versus daytime, ranges from 85 to 250, 260. 00:39:44.740 --> 00:39:49.210 If I looked at an across-the-board average percent reduction for this type 00:39:49.210 --> 00:39:53.060 of event, a 6.7, so lower magnitude than what you saw before, 00:39:53.060 --> 00:39:57.540 it’s roughly 0.5 to 1.5%. So this type of event is clearly 00:39:57.540 --> 00:40:00.730 something that wouldn’t work for an early warning system. 00:40:00.730 --> 00:40:05.130 But, if we start looking at other events – so, like, a 7.9, the Fort Tejon – 00:40:05.130 --> 00:40:10.250 so this is kind of a replica of the historical, there we go – 00:40:10.250 --> 00:40:15.600 we can get a percentage reduction of roughly 30 to 40%, as expected. 00:40:17.080 --> 00:40:21.020 Given the amount of warning time, according to the Richard Allen models 00:40:21.020 --> 00:40:24.800 that the people in this area might get. 00:40:25.640 --> 00:40:29.860 In terms of absolute number of fatalities, though, as you can see, is less than 00:40:29.869 --> 00:40:36.730 what you saw earlier for Hayward or the replica of the 1906. 00:40:36.730 --> 00:40:42.360 If we move to the San Jacinto type of earthquake, we modeled there 00:40:42.360 --> 00:40:47.240 a 7.5 magnitude. Again, fairly far away from 00:40:47.240 --> 00:40:51.680 the greater Los Angeles area as the starting of the rupture. 00:40:51.680 --> 00:40:54.599 Again, in this case, we have a 20 to 45% reduction, 00:40:54.600 --> 00:40:58.780 on average, across serious injuries and fatalities. 00:40:58.780 --> 00:41:01.400 And, again, if you look at the nighttime event, roughly you get 00:41:01.400 --> 00:41:09.860 50 fatalities and up to 250 for a daytime weekday event. 00:41:11.100 --> 00:41:14.579 Finally, I wanted to show how I looked into the influence 00:41:14.579 --> 00:41:19.950 of the blind zone radius. So, for that, I selected 00:41:19.950 --> 00:41:25.720 a 7.5 earthquake on the Sierra Madre segment. 00:41:25.720 --> 00:41:31.200 So around here. And this is the Los Angeles area. 00:41:31.200 --> 00:41:35.980 And I varied the radius of this blind zone for a 7.5 starting here 00:41:35.990 --> 00:41:41.299 from 20 to 40 kilometers in this case. And the best-case scenarios, 00:41:41.299 --> 00:41:45.980 I was getting reduction around 7 to 8 – 7-1/2 to 8-1/2%. 00:41:45.980 --> 00:41:51.160 And, in the worst-case scenario, so 40 kilometers blind zone radius, 00:41:51.160 --> 00:41:55.410 I was going down to 2 to 2-1/2% at the most. 00:41:55.410 --> 00:41:59.480 The blue line here corresponds to a nighttime occurrence of the event, 00:41:59.480 --> 00:42:02.109 and the red line to a daytime occurrence of the event. 00:42:02.109 --> 00:42:07.829 In terms of absolute number of fatalities, it’s quite more severe than any of 00:42:07.829 --> 00:42:12.180 the others that I showed for the Los Angeles area. 00:42:12.180 --> 00:42:16.500 So here, we are – we are talking really about hundreds, even at night, 00:42:16.500 --> 00:42:20.260 and almost 1,000 during the day. 00:42:21.320 --> 00:42:26.420 But if you look in terms of fatality reduction, yeah, we are roughly 50%, 00:42:26.420 --> 00:42:32.400 60 if it’s a daytime event. And it’s roughly a 6 to 7% reduction. 00:42:32.400 --> 00:42:35.940 This is assuming you are at 25 kilometers radius. 00:42:35.940 --> 00:42:39.520 That’s – that was my baseline reference point. 00:42:40.630 --> 00:42:46.180 And I will leave space for questions. I just want to point out that, 00:42:46.180 --> 00:42:51.119 according to the model that we use – according to the fact that you allow 00:42:51.120 --> 00:42:57.740 for longer warning times if you are far away – further away from the 00:42:57.740 --> 00:43:02.600 starting of the rupture, you can get up to 40 to 45% reductions 00:43:02.600 --> 00:43:07.480 in terms of injuries and fatalities savings. 00:43:07.480 --> 00:43:09.540 But you can go even down to zero if you look at the 00:43:09.540 --> 00:43:12.789 Northridge event, for example. 00:43:12.789 --> 00:43:17.289 The results that I showed are based on our stochastic view of those events. 00:43:17.289 --> 00:43:22.339 So we didn’t use any footprint based – or publicly available footprints 00:43:22.339 --> 00:43:26.920 for those type of events. We were – they were fully stochastic, 00:43:26.920 --> 00:43:32.430 even the Northridge – the Northridge event that you – that you saw. 00:43:33.900 --> 00:43:38.200 And one point I wanted to make is, these are just scenario-based analysis. 00:43:38.200 --> 00:43:44.170 So, if you want to come up with an annualized loss-cost benefit of an 00:43:44.170 --> 00:43:49.910 early warning system, or a cost-benefit as a function of the return period 00:43:49.910 --> 00:43:55.539 of exceedance probability, then it’s a whole different story. 00:43:55.539 --> 00:44:00.650 You need – we would have it for – at least in our modeling suite, 00:44:00.650 --> 00:44:05.970 we would have to go through all the stochastic event data set, and for each 00:44:05.970 --> 00:44:11.050 event and each location, apply this algorithm, and – in a simulation-based 00:44:11.050 --> 00:44:14.329 approach, and then come up with a – for example, an exceedance probability 00:44:14.329 --> 00:44:17.230 curve for the number of fatalities with a early warning in California 00:44:17.230 --> 00:44:19.670 and compare that without an early warning. 00:44:19.670 --> 00:44:24.060 And there, we can get some metrics on fully probabilistic terms. 00:44:24.060 --> 00:44:29.119 Right now, at this stage, we focused only on the scenario-based analysis, 00:44:29.119 --> 00:44:34.799 and here I showed only a few of those that we – that we performed. 00:44:34.800 --> 00:44:38.500 And I think I’m on time to leave some space for questions. Thanks. 00:44:38.500 --> 00:44:39.900 [Applause] 00:44:39.900 --> 00:44:40.960 And thank you. 00:44:40.960 --> 00:44:43.859 [Applause] 00:44:44.340 --> 00:44:46.260 - Do we have any questions? 00:44:47.640 --> 00:44:50.660 [Silence] 00:44:51.380 --> 00:44:53.960 - Hi. Thank you. Very nice talk. Question. 00:44:55.440 --> 00:44:59.240 How does – how do your results or analysis compare to areas where there 00:44:59.240 --> 00:45:02.460 is earthquake early warning in existence, and there have been large earthquakes, 00:45:02.460 --> 00:45:05.700 and I’m thinking of Japan and Mexico, for example? 00:45:06.420 --> 00:45:11.060 - Yeah. I’ll just make a comment about this. 00:45:11.060 --> 00:45:15.079 As far as I’m aware, this is the first cost effectiveness study done for 00:45:15.079 --> 00:45:19.610 any earthquake early warning system. And that’s because the biggest driver 00:45:19.610 --> 00:45:24.240 of funding for such a system are big earthquakes themselves. 00:45:24.240 --> 00:45:27.420 So, I guess in Mexico, of course, it was the 1985 earthquake. 00:45:27.420 --> 00:45:31.060 And for Japan, it was the Kobe earthquake of 1995, right? 00:45:31.060 --> 00:45:37.400 So if you – if you take those particular implementations of earthquake early 00:45:37.410 --> 00:45:41.289 warning, as far as I’m aware, there have been no cost effectiveness 00:45:41.289 --> 00:45:45.730 studies like this that essentially the – these are systems which are put in 00:45:45.730 --> 00:45:53.900 place as a way of trying to do something to mitigate risk 00:45:53.900 --> 00:45:58.660 in the aftermath of these terrible events themselves. 00:45:58.660 --> 00:46:08.520 So, if you take Japan now – even now, I’m not quite sure exactly what 00:46:08.530 --> 00:46:14.740 a cost effectiveness study would reveal for the system in Japan. 00:46:14.740 --> 00:46:23.830 But they – the whole instrumentation system in Japan is good for multiple 00:46:23.830 --> 00:46:25.880 purposes quite apart from earthquake early warning. 00:46:25.880 --> 00:46:30.759 So the – so, in a way, I think earthquake early warning is, to some extent, 00:46:30.760 --> 00:46:36.520 a spinoff from the investment in instrumentation in general in Japan. 00:46:37.460 --> 00:46:44.380 But I know that, in Europe, I think there’s currently an initiative 00:46:44.380 --> 00:46:47.750 to look into earthquake early warning in Europe. 00:46:47.750 --> 00:46:53.320 But then, the actual cost effectiveness of an implementation in Europe, 00:46:53.320 --> 00:46:58.640 say particularly – like, in Italy, for example, is rather dubious in 00:46:58.640 --> 00:47:06.910 the sense that countries like Italy are less prone to earthquakes of 00:47:06.910 --> 00:47:10.190 the size of those which can occur here in California. 00:47:10.190 --> 00:47:14.240 And correspondingly, the amount of warning time is greatly reduced. 00:47:14.240 --> 00:47:17.740 So I know there is a study ongoing at the moment, 00:47:17.740 --> 00:47:22.320 but it’s not clear exactly what the outcome of that would be. 00:47:23.320 --> 00:47:25.080 - Just a ... - [inaudible] 00:47:25.080 --> 00:47:28.400 - No, that's okay. Just a quick follow-up regarding Japan. 00:47:28.400 --> 00:47:32.620 We are currently working on our model update for Japan. 00:47:32.630 --> 00:47:37.740 So it could be possible that we are going to run additional analyses for that case. 00:47:37.740 --> 00:47:42.779 For Mexico, we don’t have a readily available model for casualty in-house, 00:47:42.779 --> 00:47:47.099 so that would have required much more work to run those analyses for Mexico. 00:47:47.099 --> 00:47:50.829 - Let’s just say that – anyway, if you say Mexico, then anyway there’s some 00:47:50.829 --> 00:47:55.780 similarities with the Pacific Northwest where, if the threat comes from a major 00:47:55.780 --> 00:48:01.740 subduction zone earthquake, then it’s much easier to see the 00:48:01.740 --> 00:48:05.579 effectiveness of the system because you know that you’ll get 00:48:05.579 --> 00:48:07.359 a substantial amount of warning. 00:48:07.360 --> 00:48:11.620 So I think Mexico is in that kind of category. 00:48:12.800 --> 00:48:14.080 Yes? 00:48:15.240 --> 00:48:20.020 [Silence] 00:48:21.080 --> 00:48:23.740 - Hi. It was an interesting talk. 00:48:23.740 --> 00:48:27.450 For your model, what human behavior models were you using, and what 00:48:27.450 --> 00:48:33.740 research had you drawn upon in terms of incorporating that in your research? 00:48:38.500 --> 00:48:41.220 - What do you mean by human behavior? Like … 00:48:41.229 --> 00:48:44.710 - So how did you incorporate what we know about human behavior 00:48:44.710 --> 00:48:48.259 in earthquakes in terms of what their response is going to be? 00:48:48.259 --> 00:48:53.480 - Oh, so in those – in how I randomized, for example, that lambda. 00:48:53.480 --> 00:48:56.470 It was mainly a function of the – so the – how I introduced 00:48:56.470 --> 00:49:00.740 the uncertainty, that was mainly a function of injury type 00:49:00.740 --> 00:49:02.900 and level of damage in the structure. 00:49:02.900 --> 00:49:11.040 I didn’t really look at age of the people, for example, or any other factors. 00:49:11.040 --> 00:49:13.299 So that’s a … - So you didn’t look at any kind of 00:49:13.299 --> 00:49:17.789 actual human response data? - No. Not for that, no. 00:49:17.789 --> 00:49:21.859 - I should say that the – that, in many ways, this is – this is kind of a schematic 00:49:21.859 --> 00:49:28.470 analysis in the sense that that is – it’ll take time to assess exactly what 00:49:28.470 --> 00:49:32.981 the behavior of individuals would be. In the context of earthquake early 00:49:32.981 --> 00:49:35.999 warning, obviously, we don’t have information on that, so – 00:49:35.999 --> 00:49:37.890 or, right at the moment. So it’s something which 00:49:37.890 --> 00:49:41.680 will evolve over time. But, I mean, in the slide that I showed, 00:49:41.680 --> 00:49:49.170 the basic premise is that, one day – well, I mean, even now with the MyShake 00:49:49.170 --> 00:49:55.440 app, that once people get a message that there’s an earthquake coming, 00:49:55.440 --> 00:50:04.240 then what people should do is actually to drop and find their way to 00:50:04.240 --> 00:50:09.200 a pre-identified place of relative safety, like under a table or something. Right? 00:50:09.200 --> 00:50:11.930 And so – I mean, that’s the kind of behavior one would hope would follow, 00:50:11.930 --> 00:50:17.180 that people would try to find their way to a place where, even if the ceiling 00:50:17.180 --> 00:50:20.980 collapsed, and even if the building collapsed on top of them, that they’d 00:50:20.980 --> 00:50:25.759 have a chance of surviving without too much injury if they were under a – 00:50:25.759 --> 00:50:28.279 like I said, a table. You know, so that’s really – 00:50:28.280 --> 00:50:32.460 so are you actually working in some of the human behavior aspects? 00:50:32.460 --> 00:50:34.760 - Yeah. I am. I’m a social scientist here at the Survey. 00:50:34.769 --> 00:50:37.480 - Okay, well, maybe we can talk to you afterwards then. 00:50:37.480 --> 00:50:40.350 - Yeah. Yeah. And I had some questions about the PTSD literature because there 00:50:40.350 --> 00:50:42.109 is quite a bit of PTSD literature in our [inaudible]. 00:50:42.109 --> 00:50:43.519 - Yeah. My wife is actually a psychologist. 00:50:43.519 --> 00:50:48.869 She’s been – she used to work at the VA on PTSD, so that’s a forefront of my – 00:50:48.869 --> 00:50:52.559 it’s actually a very serious problem. But PTSD is one of those kind of 00:50:52.559 --> 00:50:58.859 conditions of which it’s not in plain sight, so people suffer from it 00:50:58.860 --> 00:51:02.499 without often it being diagnosed. 00:51:04.940 --> 00:51:10.540 [Silence] 00:51:11.240 --> 00:51:15.560 - Yeah. This is sort of a trivial comment or question. 00:51:15.569 --> 00:51:22.110 But if you look at this room, for example, what would you recommend 00:51:22.110 --> 00:51:26.280 in the way of duck, cover, and hold? [laughter] 00:51:26.280 --> 00:51:28.730 - Well – okay. - And how long would it take you to 00:51:28.730 --> 00:51:32.990 get to someplace where you were actually going to get 00:51:32.990 --> 00:51:38.069 some protection from it? I can’t imagine us all trying to 00:51:38.069 --> 00:51:41.430 squirm underneath these chairs. And maybe we [inaudible] 00:51:41.430 --> 00:51:44.809 that table back there. - Well, that’s a very good … 00:51:44.809 --> 00:51:48.040 - And two or – the two or three youngest people in the room 00:51:48.040 --> 00:51:49.980 would win that battle. [laughter] 00:51:49.990 --> 00:51:52.910 And … - Well, that’s a very good … 00:51:52.910 --> 00:51:55.140 - So … - In fact, what one would … 00:51:55.140 --> 00:52:03.839 - So you’ve got these highly variable protection from duck, cover, and hold, 00:52:03.840 --> 00:52:09.920 given the great variety of places where people work or go to 00:52:09.920 --> 00:52:13.180 seminars in our case here. 00:52:14.500 --> 00:52:16.300 Would you care to comment [inaudible]? 00:52:16.300 --> 00:52:21.390 - Well, yes. Well, yes. Because I think probably what I’d hope for is an 00:52:21.390 --> 00:52:30.440 evolution of preparedness as – the whole process of the implementation 00:52:30.440 --> 00:52:33.690 of earthquake early warning becomes more the norm, like in California, 00:52:33.690 --> 00:52:38.369 where – like, in individual homes or in offices, that there would be 00:52:38.369 --> 00:52:44.040 well-identified places where people could find safety. 00:52:44.040 --> 00:52:48.109 Max Wyss has promoted the idea of an earthquake closet for a long time. 00:52:48.109 --> 00:52:56.020 Even without an earthquake closet, that – it’s not a great – it’s not a great – 00:52:56.020 --> 00:53:04.980 it’s not really a big deal to make sure that there is, say, a really sturdy table in, 00:53:04.990 --> 00:53:11.130 say, a given office area for the particular purpose that people could 00:53:11.130 --> 00:53:14.539 duck under it in the event of a warning. So I think this is something 00:53:14.539 --> 00:53:16.680 which will happen in the future. I mean, in Israel, for example, I do know 00:53:16.680 --> 00:53:23.509 that some enterprising entrepreneurs did develop an earthquake-proof table, 00:53:23.509 --> 00:53:27.600 which essentially was designed to withstand essentially 00:53:27.600 --> 00:53:30.509 a massive boulder landing on top of it, for example. 00:53:30.509 --> 00:53:35.569 Okay, I think – I mean, that’s the kind of enterprise which may well 00:53:35.569 --> 00:53:39.829 be forthcoming in the future. I mean, in a few years’ time, hopefully, 00:53:39.829 --> 00:53:48.009 as more and more people have this early warning app, then essentially it should 00:53:48.009 --> 00:53:52.559 become part of earthquake preparedness for – both for homes and also for 00:53:52.559 --> 00:53:55.960 offices, to make sure that there are places where people can duck. 00:53:55.960 --> 00:53:59.340 Like, take this conference room. Yes, I mean, I wouldn’t like to pass 00:53:59.340 --> 00:54:03.339 judgment on the likelihood of the ceiling collapsing in the event of an 00:54:03.339 --> 00:54:09.470 earthquake, but it would not be stupid to just make sure that there were some 00:54:09.470 --> 00:54:14.829 basic preparedness measures taken so that people could duck under 00:54:14.829 --> 00:54:19.680 something rather than just hope that the ceiling doesn’t come down and that 00:54:19.680 --> 00:54:23.530 you don’t get badly injured if it does. So I think it’s all part of the 00:54:23.530 --> 00:54:26.150 whole evolution of the process of earthquake early warning. 00:54:26.150 --> 00:54:30.500 So it’s not just a seismological issue. And it’s an issue, like, as far as human 00:54:30.500 --> 00:54:35.740 beings are concerned, of trying to understand how people would behave 00:54:35.740 --> 00:54:39.400 in the event of an earthquake, but also to make sure that there’s 00:54:39.400 --> 00:54:43.349 a basic safety infrastructure around so that people could duck under. 00:54:43.349 --> 00:54:48.509 Because, I mean, in the ideal situation in the future, hopefully we can – that, 00:54:48.509 --> 00:54:53.819 even if a really large earthquake were to occur, then hopefully, if people 00:54:53.819 --> 00:54:57.430 did manage to protect themselves by ducking under a sturdy table, 00:54:57.430 --> 00:55:00.069 then the number of serious injuries in the event of an earthquake could 00:55:00.069 --> 00:55:04.880 be really quite drastically reduced. That’s the hope, anyway. 00:55:04.880 --> 00:55:07.340 So other questions? Yes? 00:55:07.820 --> 00:55:10.260 - I just have a comment. 00:55:11.820 --> 00:55:15.780 For the benefit of everybody in this room, including Tom Hanks, push 00:55:15.780 --> 00:55:19.869 two of these chairs together, and squirm underneath it. [laughs] 00:55:19.869 --> 00:55:25.579 It’s as good as a table. - Yeah, that’s not bad. 00:55:25.579 --> 00:55:30.270 They should – I don’t know if there is such a person here at the [chuckles] – 00:55:30.270 --> 00:55:33.789 in this building, but there should be someone here whose job it is 00:55:33.789 --> 00:55:37.820 to think about these things. And I will say they should be 00:55:37.820 --> 00:55:42.520 placing guidance. Yes. I mean, it’s – or, to put it simply, 00:55:42.520 --> 00:55:48.490 one would be better off underneath those seats than just crouching on the 00:55:48.490 --> 00:55:51.860 floor here, just hoping that the ceiling doesn’t come down. 00:55:55.100 --> 00:55:58.249 - I was thinking you ought to insert evaluate ahead of 00:55:58.249 --> 00:56:02.180 duck, cover, and whatever. [laughs] 00:56:03.580 --> 00:56:06.480 Survey your scene and – because I was thinking you could stick 00:56:06.480 --> 00:56:10.650 your head under a chair. And then I was also thinking 00:56:10.650 --> 00:56:12.730 what Wayne was suggesting. - But, again … 00:56:12.730 --> 00:56:15.109 - It assumes the room is not very full. 00:56:15.109 --> 00:56:18.140 - That’s – well, again, I do think that this … 00:56:18.140 --> 00:56:20.820 - [inaudible] better than being under the [inaudible]. 00:56:20.820 --> 00:56:22.600 These things would be falling. 00:56:22.600 --> 00:56:26.079 - I’ve done a rudimentary literature search. 00:56:26.079 --> 00:56:32.579 I don’t think that the arrival of earthquake early warning has yet raise 00:56:32.580 --> 00:56:35.620 this question as to whether the mantra should be duck, cover, and hold 00:56:35.620 --> 00:56:40.779 rather than drop, cover, and hold. Okay, because – and especially – 00:56:40.779 --> 00:56:44.950 I did ask this question before the seminar started, which is that hopefully 00:56:44.950 --> 00:56:49.749 one of these days in the future, individuals will be able to receive 00:56:49.749 --> 00:56:54.039 on their cell phone an estimate of how many seconds that they have 00:56:54.039 --> 00:56:56.309 before the shaking would arrive. Okay, we aren’t there yet. 00:56:56.309 --> 00:56:58.670 But hopefully that’ll be in the future that we get a message 00:56:58.670 --> 00:57:01.480 saying earthquake coming in X seconds. 00:57:01.480 --> 00:57:04.400 So if it’s 10 seconds, then you could say, well, I don’t know a good table 00:57:04.400 --> 00:57:08.300 here, but the dining room is over there. I’ve got 10 seconds to get to the 00:57:08.309 --> 00:57:10.289 dining room and duck under the dining room table. 00:57:10.289 --> 00:57:12.970 Okay, so if you think – imagine that world, 00:57:12.970 --> 00:57:15.910 which may not be that many years in the future. 00:57:15.910 --> 00:57:22.140 Okay, then the idea of preparing for that kind of situation about having a suitable 00:57:22.140 --> 00:57:26.869 table would be a really good idea. And also, in the world of the future, 00:57:26.869 --> 00:57:31.009 where you are told how many seconds that you have, then surely it must be 00:57:31.009 --> 00:57:33.400 better to duck, cover, and hold than just drop, cover, and hold – 00:57:33.400 --> 00:57:35.430 rather than just get on the floor and start crawling around. 00:57:35.430 --> 00:57:39.100 If you got – if you know you got 10 or 15 seconds, okay, then use it 00:57:39.100 --> 00:57:44.009 to find the best place to crawl under. Because, I mean, if you are underneath 00:57:44.009 --> 00:57:46.220 a really sturdy table, I think you’ve got a very good 00:57:46.220 --> 00:57:50.100 chance of avoiding really serious injury. 00:57:52.880 --> 00:58:00.920 - Have you done any analysis of the cost-benefits of sort of automated 00:58:00.920 --> 00:58:04.859 responses? Like slowing the BART trains and opening the fire station 00:58:04.859 --> 00:58:06.930 doors and whatever else? - Well, we have – but in fact – 00:58:06.930 --> 00:58:10.400 but obviously, for – I mean, for those organizations that you 00:58:10.400 --> 00:58:15.609 just mentioned like the BART and the fire departments and – 00:58:15.609 --> 00:58:18.349 included, they would have just done their own assessments. 00:58:18.349 --> 00:58:23.930 So it’s, like, just to – in a way, the BART is a classic case of a 00:58:23.930 --> 00:58:30.720 commercial organization which has invested money for a system. 00:58:30.720 --> 00:58:34.410 And, in fact, the cost effectiveness studies there is a no-brainer. 00:58:34.410 --> 00:58:40.839 Because, if a BART train is derailed, the cost of the damage to the 00:58:40.839 --> 00:58:43.809 BART train, I think, is in the millions of dollars or something. 00:58:43.809 --> 00:58:48.910 So even if you don’t take into account the reduction of injuries to passengers, 00:58:48.910 --> 00:58:53.239 just in terms of the loss to rolling stock stock and so on, it’s really a no-brainer 00:58:53.239 --> 00:58:58.980 for the BART to have invested in this. And one of the points I’m making is 00:58:58.980 --> 00:59:03.829 that, even for commercial organizations in California who do not have this 00:59:03.829 --> 00:59:07.140 no-brainer argument of why they should be investing in this – 00:59:07.140 --> 00:59:10.960 on their own – and in fact, what I do know to date is that huge amounts 00:59:10.970 --> 00:59:16.779 of effort have been invested in people talking to corporations to say, look, 00:59:16.779 --> 00:59:20.460 if we had earthquake early warning, you can turn off your systems early 00:59:20.460 --> 00:59:24.130 so to avoid fire and explosion and so on. It’s a very hard sell. 00:59:24.130 --> 00:59:27.150 And in fact, one of the reasons why we haven’t seen so many 00:59:27.150 --> 00:59:29.820 implementations of earthquake early warning in California, or elsewhere, 00:59:29.820 --> 00:59:36.200 for that matter, is because if you just look at it in strict commercial terms, 00:59:36.200 --> 00:59:38.430 it’s not at all obvious to many corporations that it 00:59:38.430 --> 00:59:41.240 really makes sense to do this. So that’s the reason why. 00:59:41.240 --> 00:59:47.089 What I’ve stressed is that corporations could contribute to the funding of this, 00:59:47.089 --> 00:59:51.859 not in terms of their own advantage, but in terms of the benefit to the 00:59:51.859 --> 00:59:54.700 community in general, essentially just appealing to the sense of 00:59:54.700 --> 00:59:57.509 corporate social responsibility. If you take some of the richest 00:59:57.509 --> 01:00:01.700 corporations in the world, whether it’s Apple or Google or Facebook, right, 01:00:01.700 --> 01:00:05.600 these major corporations, okay, that they could be contributing money 01:00:05.600 --> 01:00:08.960 to the operation – the operation of an earthquake early warning system, 01:00:08.970 --> 01:00:14.550 not because they may benefit in their well-designed offices, but for 01:00:14.550 --> 01:00:19.040 the benefit of the whole community within the state of California. 01:00:22.020 --> 01:00:26.599 - Thanks for a really interesting talk. And I wondered – you talked about – 01:00:26.600 --> 01:00:29.580 the math you showed, if I understand, had, you know, maps of the blind zone 01:00:29.580 --> 01:00:32.320 or late-alert zone. Have you – obviously speed 01:00:32.320 --> 01:00:35.600 is of the essence in getting alerts out, and internet-based alerting 01:00:35.600 --> 01:00:39.740 is faster than cell phone apps, which is, in turn, faster than 01:00:39.740 --> 01:00:42.980 wireless emergency alerting. Have you looked at the tradeoffs 01:00:42.980 --> 01:00:47.760 between alerting time in an optimal system versus one that has more realistic 01:00:47.760 --> 01:00:50.520 delays through different mechanisms? - Well, thank you for that. 01:00:50.529 --> 01:00:51.880 And I’ll say something. We would – we’d be interested 01:00:51.880 --> 01:00:54.369 in looking at in the future. Obviously the technology is evolving. 01:00:54.369 --> 01:01:01.869 But I think – but I think that – and, again, I mentioned the – the kind of – 01:01:01.869 --> 01:01:04.130 the [inaudible] of the future where people are told how many 01:01:04.130 --> 01:01:08.520 seconds that they have. This kind of technology is going to be – 01:01:08.520 --> 01:01:11.460 it’s going to cost money. It could be expensive, okay, 01:01:11.460 --> 01:01:14.900 to do the basic development. And some of it might be done here 01:01:14.900 --> 01:01:22.680 at the USGS, which, in a way, just shows that this whole discussion 01:01:22.680 --> 01:01:26.280 about cost effectiveness is one which will always be with us. 01:01:26.280 --> 01:01:28.360 Essentially that whenever there are new developments which are going to cost 01:01:28.360 --> 01:01:31.190 money and so on, people would say, well, is it really worth doing this? 01:01:31.190 --> 01:01:33.299 Okay, so – yeah. - Yeah. That’s one reason I was asking. 01:01:33.299 --> 01:01:37.140 Because, if you could demonstrate there would be a greater reduction 01:01:37.140 --> 01:01:40.940 in injuries and fatalities, or economic loss, by speeding up from, 01:01:40.940 --> 01:01:44.589 say, four to two seconds for some particular distribution mechanism, 01:01:44.589 --> 01:01:47.700 once the early warning is issued, that could provide the motivation 01:01:47.700 --> 01:01:49.510 for investing in that technology. - That’s – I thank you for that. 01:01:49.510 --> 01:01:51.380 It’s a very good suggestion. - That would be really strong feedback. 01:01:51.380 --> 01:01:55.180 - No. In fact, I think that that is a very good example of something which could 01:01:55.180 --> 01:02:00.420 and should be done in the near future to address that kind of question. 01:02:00.430 --> 01:02:05.039 I think – going forward, I think there will always be an evolving need for 01:02:05.039 --> 01:02:10.829 these kind of studies to – just to show that technological developments 01:02:10.829 --> 01:02:17.420 are headed in a good sort of economic direction to make sure that the money 01:02:17.420 --> 01:02:21.109 is being spent where it’s needed. In fact, I just – what I said before 01:02:21.109 --> 01:02:26.450 about PG&E, which is, in a way, that the absence of this kind of cost 01:02:26.450 --> 01:02:28.759 effectiveness studies, there’s no better illustrator than the failure 01:02:28.759 --> 01:02:33.910 of PG&E to do such a study for their distribution system. 01:02:33.910 --> 01:02:36.660 If they had done such a study, we wouldn’t – well, quite possibly 01:02:36.660 --> 01:02:40.740 wouldn’t have had these dreadful fires the last couple years. 01:02:42.540 --> 01:02:45.100 [Silence] 01:02:45.820 --> 01:02:48.940 - Do we have any final questions? 01:02:51.220 --> 01:02:56.420 [Silence] 01:02:57.220 --> 01:03:01.220 - What method of warning is used in Japan, and is there – like, 01:03:01.220 --> 01:03:05.920 is there anything considered here for big, open space – public space … 01:03:05.920 --> 01:03:09.140 - What I do know is that they do have a cell phone system, 01:03:09.140 --> 01:03:13.380 where essentially everyone gets a sound message, 01:03:13.380 --> 01:03:16.720 which has a very distinctive ring to it. 01:03:16.720 --> 01:03:18.680 I won’t repeat it. It’s – I’m not sure if I could 01:03:18.690 --> 01:03:21.490 reproduce it very well, but it has a very distinctive ring to it. 01:03:21.490 --> 01:03:24.829 So immediately, you hear it, you recognize it’s the – it’s an earthquake. 01:03:24.829 --> 01:03:27.380 And I think that works quite well in Japan, 01:03:27.380 --> 01:03:30.480 having this kind of automated system on cell phones. 01:03:36.820 --> 01:03:39.700 - Well, what is – is there anything considered, 01:03:39.700 --> 01:03:45.160 or what is being considered in California? 01:03:47.340 --> 01:03:50.500 - I’m not the best person to answer that question. 01:03:52.160 --> 01:03:56.720 - Well, so on October 17th, the anniversary of Loma Prieta, 01:03:56.730 --> 01:04:00.450 there was the roll-out of the MyShake app, which is a cell phone app. 01:04:00.450 --> 01:04:04.420 So that is free to download, and many people have downloaded it already. 01:04:04.420 --> 01:04:07.760 So there are – and that’s one app. There are other apps. 01:04:07.760 --> 01:04:12.060 ShakeAlertLA – city of L.A. has an app. There’s another one coming out soon. 01:04:12.069 --> 01:04:14.470 So there are a number of companies working on developing cell phone 01:04:14.470 --> 01:04:18.680 applications to distribute ShakeAlerts that are generated by USGS. 01:04:18.680 --> 01:04:22.320 Wireless emergency alerting, which is operated through the FEMA – 01:04:22.320 --> 01:04:25.780 IPAWS Gateway is another one. So those two things are now on 01:04:25.789 --> 01:04:29.619 people’s phones, and there’s statewide alerting in California right now. 01:04:29.619 --> 01:04:34.369 So there is also internet-based alerting, which is faster, that’s been going on 01:04:34.369 --> 01:04:36.720 for a while – for example, the BART and other users. 01:04:36.720 --> 01:04:41.029 So the technical end users tend to base their warnings on internet, 01:04:41.029 --> 01:04:43.720 which is fastest. And then the public alerting, 01:04:43.720 --> 01:04:47.380 right now, is mostly through cell phones – either the wireless 01:04:47.380 --> 01:04:51.839 emergency alerting or these apps. Mexico City, of course, has big alarms 01:04:51.840 --> 01:04:54.900 and loudspeakers that broadcast that people can hear. 01:04:54.900 --> 01:04:57.500 And that’s a different system altogether. 01:04:57.740 --> 01:05:01.460 - Is that being considered at all here? - Not the – not the – not the audible 01:05:01.460 --> 01:05:05.410 alarms because we have such a dispersed risk, we’d have to 01:05:05.410 --> 01:05:08.099 put them everywhere. But right now, it’s mostly focusing on 01:05:08.099 --> 01:05:13.440 internet-based, cell phone alerting, and also as a transmission on the 01:05:13.440 --> 01:05:16.319 commercial radio and TV sideband. So that’s also being discussed. 01:05:16.319 --> 01:05:20.280 - It wouldn’t be that stupid to have some kind of siren or something. 01:05:20.280 --> 01:05:25.440 Get going back to Dr. Cooper in 1868 with the idea of ringing bells 01:05:25.440 --> 01:05:29.510 in churches in San Francisco to warn people. 01:05:29.510 --> 01:05:35.059 But, yeah, I mean, like a – I’m speaking of being in London, of what happened 01:05:35.060 --> 01:05:39.560 during the Blitz, when obviously there were – there were air raid sirens, 01:05:39.560 --> 01:05:42.200 which sounded. So, yes, I mean, that could – 01:05:42.200 --> 01:05:44.759 obviously, if you take people who are out in the street or whatever, 01:05:44.760 --> 01:05:47.560 they may not have their cell phone switched on, and be able to hear – 01:05:47.560 --> 01:05:52.600 especially a siren. Okay, then – well, that could be one method. 01:05:54.080 --> 01:05:57.500 Old-fashioned, but it could still be effective. 01:05:57.500 --> 01:06:02.040 - There’s a big lag time, it just – you know, finding your phone. 01:06:02.040 --> 01:06:04.680 Does it interrupt your phone somehow to go off on … 01:06:04.690 --> 01:06:08.210 - Yeah. So the strategy is, right now, to have your phone make a very 01:06:08.210 --> 01:06:10.999 distinctive noise so you don’t have to pull it out of your … 01:06:10.999 --> 01:06:12.499 - Right, yeah. - … out of your pocket. 01:06:12.499 --> 01:06:14.910 - [inaudible] - Yeah. So, I mean, there’s a lot of social 01:06:14.910 --> 01:06:18.369 science research, which Sara mentioned, and also a lot of work in the ShakeAlert 01:06:18.369 --> 01:06:23.529 community on how to make alerts as instantly recognizable by the user 01:06:23.529 --> 01:06:26.660 as possible. So things that speak on your phone, things that make 01:06:26.660 --> 01:06:29.430 a distinctive noise – these are – these are the goals. 01:06:29.430 --> 01:06:32.249 And right now, there is actually – they’re audible alarms. 01:06:32.249 --> 01:06:35.670 So hopefully, you will not be having to read text while you’re 01:06:35.670 --> 01:06:37.859 trying to react to something. 01:06:37.860 --> 01:06:41.860 Texts are important, but you do save – you know, use up time there. 01:06:41.860 --> 01:06:43.580 - Yeah. Okay, thank you. 01:06:44.260 --> 01:06:47.440 - What a great discussion. Okay, let’s thank our speakers one more time. 01:06:47.440 --> 01:06:51.300 [Applause] 01:06:51.300 --> 01:06:54.710 There are still openings in the afternoon for meetings, so if you 01:06:54.710 --> 01:06:57.799 would like to meet with our speakers or join us for lunch, please come to 01:06:57.800 --> 01:07:00.880 the front, and we will organize that. Thank you. 01:07:02.160 --> 01:07:13.240 [inaudible background conversations] 01:07:13.240 --> 01:08:06.860 [Silence]