WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:04.420 --> 00:00:07.635 ... so they could learn from the folks there. 00:00:07.635 --> 00:00:13.598 So here Margot is now coming back to us to teach us and tell us about recovery. 00:00:13.687 --> 00:00:18.320 She is going to give us a perspective we haven't heard before. 00:00:18.320 --> 00:00:22.778 She's been involved first-hand in the long-term recovery at Christchurch, 00:00:22.778 --> 00:00:26.886 New Zealand, and in the four years following the earthquake. 00:00:27.640 --> 00:00:30.280 She was a deputy general manager and then general manager 00:00:30.280 --> 00:00:32.804 of Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority 00:00:32.804 --> 00:00:37.000 infrastructure rebuild team in 2011 and '12 00:00:37.000 --> 00:00:40.071 focused on the prioritization of the work program to 00:00:40.071 --> 00:00:44.746 fit long-term recovery outcomes. So big decision-making. 00:00:45.178 --> 00:00:48.434 Margot then moved into a strategic advisory role 00:00:48.588 --> 00:00:52.772 supporting the refresh of governance and funding frameworks. 00:00:52.772 --> 00:00:56.138 Then the she left CERA -- and I'd be interested to know why -- 00:00:56.138 --> 00:01:01.558 and now works as an independent consultant nationally and internationally 00:01:01.558 --> 00:01:04.206 supporting others in their decision-making 00:01:04.206 --> 00:01:09.785 to resolve complex problems related to city and system functionality. 00:01:10.277 --> 00:01:13.487 So Margot will explain how she got to that point. 00:01:13.487 --> 00:01:15.272 And we would be interested, from the audience, 00:01:15.272 --> 00:01:17.989 does anyone here -- why did you come today? 00:01:17.989 --> 00:01:24.920 And if you'd like to throw out some questions for Margot, raise your hand. 00:01:25.455 --> 00:01:29.335 Is there anything you'd like -- she can talk on many subjects. 00:01:29.335 --> 00:01:32.240 So anyone got any questions? 00:01:34.313 --> 00:01:37.983 No? They're just all here -- go for it. 00:01:41.285 --> 00:01:44.068 - Okay. [inaudible] - Yeah, go ahead. 00:01:44.551 --> 00:01:46.848 So welcome, Margot Christeller. 00:01:46.848 --> 00:01:48.528 - Okay. - There you go. 00:01:48.528 --> 00:01:51.061 - Hello? You can hear me? 00:01:52.103 --> 00:01:56.235 Hello. Can you hear me at the back clear enough? 00:01:56.235 --> 00:01:58.433 Thank you, Anne. 00:01:58.433 --> 00:02:00.411 So I thank you for having me here today. 00:02:00.411 --> 00:02:05.531 And I would like just to start off by saying -- to reiterate what Anne 00:02:05.531 --> 00:02:10.080 has said, that I'm no longer here with an institutional view. 00:02:10.080 --> 00:02:14.127 The observations I present today are my own based on my experiences. 00:02:14.127 --> 00:02:16.417 So please take this as my observations 00:02:16.417 --> 00:02:19.492 and not of any institution back in New Zealand. 00:02:19.492 --> 00:02:21.199 Hopefully I reflect the views of those 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:25.695 back in New Zealand, but I'm not speaking for any one party. 00:02:25.695 --> 00:02:28.834 So what I'm going to talk -- about 40 minutes, I understand, 00:02:28.834 --> 00:02:30.794 and hopefully plenty of time for questions. 00:02:30.794 --> 00:02:34.287 But please also do put your hand up at any time. Interrupt. 00:02:34.287 --> 00:02:36.828 I prefer discussion-based presentations. 00:02:36.828 --> 00:02:39.078 If you think I've gone past something a little bit too quickly, 00:02:39.078 --> 00:02:41.119 and you want some more detail. 00:02:41.119 --> 00:02:42.778 But I'm going to talk about what happened very quickly, but I 00:02:42.778 --> 00:02:48.105 understand you're relatively familiar. So I'll go through those slides in a hurry. 00:02:48.105 --> 00:02:50.674 But then I'm also going to show the consequences of the shock 00:02:50.674 --> 00:02:53.163 on the community and on the economy. 00:02:53.163 --> 00:02:56.089 And what we did -- what we all collectively did 00:02:56.089 --> 00:02:58.093 in the first, second, and third years, 00:02:58.093 --> 00:03:01.069 that in my view made some of the biggest differences 00:03:01.069 --> 00:03:03.362 for long-term recovery. 00:03:03.362 --> 00:03:05.991 Then I'm going to present you with some of my observations 00:03:05.991 --> 00:03:09.298 of what worked well and some observations on some things maybe 00:03:09.298 --> 00:03:14.947 we should think about that in hindsight we may have done slightly differently. 00:03:14.947 --> 00:03:18.015 And then I'm going to present some questions to you -- 00:03:18.015 --> 00:03:21.135 some challenges to you -- and what it might mean for what you do. 00:03:21.135 --> 00:03:24.242 Please realize I'm not quite sure who I've got in my audience, 00:03:24.242 --> 00:03:26.807 and so I'm leaving it very high-level. 00:03:26.807 --> 00:03:31.514 That's where I'll need your help to make it particular to you. 00:03:32.534 --> 00:03:36.842 So how did I get here, and why am I here? 00:03:36.842 --> 00:03:40.641 I'm just -- that's a photo out of the press the day after the earthquake. 00:03:40.641 --> 00:03:42.310 That's me in the middle of it. 00:03:42.310 --> 00:03:45.712 So why I feel I've got some mandate to speak to you is not only because, 00:03:45.712 --> 00:03:49.319 for the last four years, being involved in long-term recovery, 00:03:49.319 --> 00:03:51.936 but to be effective in long-term recovery, 00:03:51.936 --> 00:03:56.267 you have to understand the context of the community that you're working with. 00:03:56.267 --> 00:03:58.754 So I'm a local. I live in Canterbury, New Zealand. 00:03:58.754 --> 00:04:01.291 I had been away for 20 years, but I came back. 00:04:01.291 --> 00:04:05.608 Came back with a young family from Wellington city to Christchurch. 00:04:05.608 --> 00:04:07.630 And Wellington city was the city where, of course, 00:04:07.630 --> 00:04:10.947 we expected the earthquake to be. Certain sense of relief that we 00:04:10.947 --> 00:04:14.934 were now on the South Island safely with our young family. 00:04:14.934 --> 00:04:18.594 And before the earthquakes and before I came to Canterbury, 00:04:18.594 --> 00:04:22.082 I had 10 years in the prime minister's department of New Zealand 00:04:22.082 --> 00:04:25.143 working on security and strategic issues. 00:04:25.143 --> 00:04:27.684 For 10 years before the earthquake, my focus was on 00:04:27.684 --> 00:04:32.691 economic infrastructure -- systems which make communities operate. 00:04:32.691 --> 00:04:36.568 And then what made it really relevant for me to help my own view 00:04:36.568 --> 00:04:41.581 on why I wanted to help in the last four years was I was there. 00:04:41.581 --> 00:04:45.048 I unfortunately found myself at the CTV Building. 00:04:45.048 --> 00:04:48.151 I watched it collapse -- one of the two buildings which collapsed 00:04:48.151 --> 00:04:52.298 in Christchurch after I had pulled myself out of a car park building, 00:04:52.298 --> 00:04:55.572 which was where I was at the time. 00:04:55.572 --> 00:04:59.924 And I spent six to almost eight hours trying to help recover people. 00:05:00.639 --> 00:05:03.487 That impacts you, and it makes you want to be involved. 00:05:03.487 --> 00:05:06.442 So I now am part of the privileged few, or unprivileged, 00:05:06.442 --> 00:05:08.304 to be called a first responder. 00:05:10.806 --> 00:05:12.940 So very quickly, Christchurch and Canterbury -- 00:05:12.940 --> 00:05:15.467 Canterbury the region, Christchurch the city -- 00:05:15.467 --> 00:05:19.511 about 460,000 to 480,000 people, depending on how big you -- 00:05:19.511 --> 00:05:22.943 how many of your satellite towns you incorporate. 00:05:22.943 --> 00:05:28.131 A regional population of over half a million -- about 570,000 people. 00:05:28.131 --> 00:05:29.997 The city is the gateway to the South Island, 00:05:29.997 --> 00:05:32.763 international airport, international port. 00:05:32.763 --> 00:05:37.615 The hub of the international program going to Antarctica. 00:05:37.615 --> 00:05:41.788 And the Canterbury region is about 15% of New Zealand's GDP. 00:05:41.788 --> 00:05:45.518 Very agricultural-based. But the city was the service center 00:05:45.518 --> 00:05:51.478 for the region and also has a large professional and light industrial sector. 00:05:52.031 --> 00:05:54.023 The other thing about Christchurch is we are more England 00:05:54.023 --> 00:05:58.795 than England in places. Enormous amount of historic fabric. 00:05:58.795 --> 00:06:02.655 You can see some buildings there that gave us a sense of place 00:06:02.655 --> 00:06:05.595 on the map -- 150 years of history. 00:06:05.595 --> 00:06:09.095 Not much in the context of some of your cities, of course. 00:06:09.095 --> 00:06:14.271 But we're relatively new, but we do have this wonderful fabric. 00:06:15.098 --> 00:06:17.834 I'm speaking to the converted here. I'm sure you all know, 00:06:17.834 --> 00:06:20.969 but that's the situation we sit on -- a very basic map. 00:06:20.969 --> 00:06:24.003 We expected the Alpine Fault in the South Island of New Zealand 00:06:24.003 --> 00:06:25.932 to be our biggest risk area. 00:06:25.932 --> 00:06:28.633 That is still perceived as one of our biggest risks. 00:06:28.633 --> 00:06:32.747 Christchurch on the South Island is a good two hours' drive from there. 00:06:32.747 --> 00:06:37.007 We always thought we had some element of risk with the S-wave 00:06:37.007 --> 00:06:41.322 of a large Alpine Fault collapse, but we had no -- most of us 00:06:41.322 --> 00:06:45.212 had no understanding of what we were actually sitting on, 00:06:45.212 --> 00:06:47.736 and that's what we'll talk about today. 00:06:50.773 --> 00:06:52.703 So what actually happened? 00:06:52.703 --> 00:06:56.955 We've had 19 earthquakes over 5.2 magnitude. 00:06:56.955 --> 00:06:58.665 And that was over 18 months. 00:06:58.665 --> 00:07:01.929 So it's not one event. It's a series of events. 00:07:01.929 --> 00:07:04.677 The largest, of course, was the first one -- 7.1 magnitude 00:07:04.677 --> 00:07:08.532 in the middle of the night in September 2010 00:07:08.532 --> 00:07:14.095 and then progressively through 2011 and some in 2012. 00:07:14.095 --> 00:07:16.713 That's more or less a visualization, and I'm sure you've seen 00:07:16.713 --> 00:07:20.071 some of these slides before with the decay curve. 00:07:20.071 --> 00:07:22.770 So living through an earthquake is not a reality. 00:07:22.770 --> 00:07:25.046 You live through a series of earthquakes. 00:07:25.046 --> 00:07:30.365 My home is 10 miles from the original earthquake, the 7.1 -- and old farmhouse, 00:07:30.365 --> 00:07:37.062 but it did significant damage even though it was wooden with a light roof. 00:07:37.062 --> 00:07:41.173 And one of my four children still hasn't got over that event. 00:07:41.173 --> 00:07:44.066 That first one also caused -- was the first -- our first visibility 00:07:44.066 --> 00:07:48.389 of the damage liquefaction can cause, and we will discuss that later. 00:07:48.389 --> 00:07:51.307 But we really thought is we thought we'd had our big earthquake. 00:07:51.307 --> 00:07:53.927 We'd had the 7.1. We were starting to recover by February, 00:07:54.064 --> 00:07:58.067 and everything looked glowing. So we had no idea. 00:08:00.497 --> 00:08:03.926 This map is just a very stylized one, of course, but I just wanted to 00:08:03.926 --> 00:08:06.451 put it into context if you haven't seen it. 00:08:06.451 --> 00:08:09.851 So the first big -- oh, I'm sorry, we're not allowed to use the pointer, 00:08:09.851 --> 00:08:11.342 So I'm not quite sure how I am to show you. 00:08:11.342 --> 00:08:16.031 But the red line on the left-hand side and the star -- the star is the first fault -- 00:08:16.031 --> 00:08:19.244 the first rupture of the Greendale Fault. 00:08:19.577 --> 00:08:23.845 And it moved progressively from west to east over the ensuing months. 00:08:23.845 --> 00:08:25.847 And then in February -- Christchurch city is on 00:08:25.847 --> 00:08:28.085 the right-hand side -- Christchurch central. 00:08:28.085 --> 00:08:32.922 The yellow lines -- dotted lines were the two unknown fault lines. 00:08:32.922 --> 00:08:37.046 Over -- if you -- if you squint, the whole thing was a west-to-east 00:08:37.046 --> 00:08:41.270 movement over progressively and 13,000 earthquakes 00:08:41.270 --> 00:08:44.272 which were at a level which could be felt. 00:08:44.272 --> 00:08:46.091 The gap is always an interesting one. 00:08:46.091 --> 00:08:49.228 So, in the audience, if you look to -- between the red line and 00:08:49.228 --> 00:08:52.852 the two yellow lines, there's a gap. We're all quite interested about what 00:08:52.852 --> 00:08:56.542 that gap means with respect to energy and retained energy. 00:08:59.502 --> 00:09:02.654 So on this world scale, very quickly, this is PGA. 00:09:02.654 --> 00:09:06.513 I'm sure you're familiar with -- preach to the converted as well. 00:09:07.153 --> 00:09:09.287 But on the left-hand side, the red arrows are our 00:09:09.287 --> 00:09:12.333 four biggest earthquakes in Christchurch. 00:09:12.333 --> 00:09:15.652 The only one with a larger -- the 2.7g force was 00:09:15.652 --> 00:09:18.054 the Tohoku earthquake, of course. 00:09:18.054 --> 00:09:22.460 But it was quite deep and a long way off shore. The damage was the tsunami. 00:09:22.460 --> 00:09:26.334 So we registered quite high, as you know, in the world of events. 00:09:26.334 --> 00:09:30.421 And 1g is what our building code would -- you'd normally expect 00:09:30.421 --> 00:09:35.638 a code to survive to. But we had 2.2g's more than once. 00:09:38.381 --> 00:09:40.014 Photos like you've seen before. 00:09:40.014 --> 00:09:42.474 So I won't focus too much on these at all. 00:09:42.474 --> 00:09:46.257 But the left-hand side -- the railway line was the Darfield fault line going 00:09:46.257 --> 00:09:51.454 across the plains, and the other photos are actually from inside our city. 00:09:52.130 --> 00:09:54.838 The bottom right-hand photo is the CTV Building, which collapsed, 00:09:54.838 --> 00:09:58.091 which is where I unfortunately found myself operating that day. 00:09:58.813 --> 00:10:01.011 I love that photo. 00:10:01.011 --> 00:10:04.224 Just put it in there because we'll talk about multi-hazards shortly. 00:10:04.753 --> 00:10:06.449 So we didn't only suffer shaking. 00:10:06.449 --> 00:10:09.348 What we didn't understand is earthquakes is not just about shaking. 00:10:09.348 --> 00:10:11.498 It's about multi-hazard. 00:10:11.498 --> 00:10:14.023 And in the Port Hills areas, we did have massive amounts 00:10:14.023 --> 00:10:18.299 of rock roll, rock fall, and mass movement areas. 00:10:18.299 --> 00:10:21.599 Mass movement areas are something that we still need 00:10:21.599 --> 00:10:27.573 a lot of science done on and who is responsible for mitigating the risks. 00:10:27.573 --> 00:10:31.594 And of course, one of the other hazards that we did suffer that you will -- 00:10:31.594 --> 00:10:35.391 you would have learned about in the last four years is liquefaction. 00:10:35.391 --> 00:10:39.668 So it's not something insignificant when 400,000 tons of silt come out of 00:10:39.668 --> 00:10:45.545 the ground, encapsulating, or enclosing infrastructure under the ground. 00:10:45.545 --> 00:10:48.809 But it was so big, it was the structures above the ground as well. 00:10:50.334 --> 00:10:52.650 The jelly effect is terrifying as well. 00:10:52.650 --> 00:10:56.092 So we're going to talk about not only what this means for infrastructure 00:10:56.092 --> 00:11:00.497 and for assets and for stuff like cars, but what it does to the psychology of 00:11:00.497 --> 00:11:06.031 people when the land they depend on is no longer what they think it is. 00:11:06.031 --> 00:11:10.471 And some people got caught like those cars did, but nobody died in it. 00:11:12.592 --> 00:11:15.972 And then another hazard that we were unfamiliar with 00:11:15.972 --> 00:11:20.251 except for our scientist community, of course, was lateral spread. 00:11:20.251 --> 00:11:23.120 That's along one of our two river edges. 00:11:23.120 --> 00:11:25.310 And it's normal asset management practice in a city 00:11:25.310 --> 00:11:30.326 to put some of the significant infrastructure systems on the edges. 00:11:30.326 --> 00:11:32.608 Because that's just what we do. 00:11:32.608 --> 00:11:36.408 They go through suburbs, but they also go around suburbs. 00:11:36.408 --> 00:11:39.710 And so of course these -- lateral spread did a lot of damage 00:11:39.710 --> 00:11:44.251 to some of our large lateral infrastructure systems underneath 00:11:44.251 --> 00:11:50.134 the ground, and of course the roads which go across the top of them. 00:11:50.134 --> 00:11:53.731 And then there's the people, of course, the most important factor. 00:11:53.731 --> 00:11:56.464 And Christchurch -- because cities are only about 00:11:56.464 --> 00:11:59.118 housing the people who want to live there. 00:11:59.118 --> 00:12:01.899 Large displacement of people in the east. 00:12:01.899 --> 00:12:04.254 The eastern suburbs were the most affected suburbs 00:12:04.254 --> 00:12:06.409 because the land was the poorest. 00:12:06.409 --> 00:12:08.925 And again, I understand most of you know an awful lot about 00:12:08.925 --> 00:12:11.831 what's happened in Christchurch, so I won't explain the -- too much 00:12:11.831 --> 00:12:16.322 of the story, but do put your hand up if you don't -- not sure what I'm talking about. 00:12:16.949 --> 00:12:20.789 But the eastern zones, underneath the land was very wet. 00:12:20.789 --> 00:12:23.385 The gravel beds allowed the liquefaction to come up through it. 00:12:23.385 --> 00:12:27.311 So the houses sunk, and all the services that people would expect in their 00:12:27.311 --> 00:12:32.626 community were damaged and, in quite a lot of cases, beyond repair. 00:12:32.626 --> 00:12:36.945 They had no choice but to move in that very short term. 00:12:36.945 --> 00:12:40.810 But also, our central business district, the day of the earthquake, at the end 00:12:40.810 --> 00:12:45.724 of the day, the Army came in and put a cordon around the central city. 00:12:45.724 --> 00:12:48.189 And many people lived within that cordon. 00:12:48.189 --> 00:12:51.546 It wasn't just the commercial sector that got locked out. 00:12:51.546 --> 00:12:55.931 The cordon was up for almost two years in some parts of the central city. 00:12:55.931 --> 00:13:00.275 So those people who lived there were displaced for a very long time. 00:13:01.207 --> 00:13:06.731 Schools were also inside the cordon, as were some of our health sector. 00:13:10.404 --> 00:13:13.584 I'm sorry about the quality of this when we blow it up as big as this, 00:13:13.584 --> 00:13:18.510 but this is just a stylized view of what happened to the coast 00:13:18.510 --> 00:13:21.573 on the east and land subsidence. 00:13:21.573 --> 00:13:25.146 So the river running for the east coast, on the right-hand side of course, and the 00:13:25.146 --> 00:13:29.759 wiggly line coming into the central city is one of our two main rivers. 00:13:30.290 --> 00:13:37.566 The square box in the middle is a stylize of our central area -- business district. 00:13:37.566 --> 00:13:42.917 But around the river, the pink area was up to 3 feet of land subsidence. 00:13:42.917 --> 00:13:45.467 Yellow indicates at least two inches. 00:13:45.467 --> 00:13:48.626 So you can see most of the city subsided a little bit, 00:13:48.626 --> 00:13:52.806 but some areas subsided considerably. 00:13:55.412 --> 00:13:58.374 Water supply -- 25% of our water pipes were damaged. 00:13:58.374 --> 00:14:02.731 There was no formal water supply for weeks in some areas. 00:14:02.731 --> 00:14:06.883 And remember, too, as I said, it wasn't an event. 00:14:06.883 --> 00:14:09.990 So every time we started to re-establish some sort of basic 00:14:09.990 --> 00:14:14.557 network supplies to our communities, quite often, another event would happen, 00:14:14.557 --> 00:14:18.668 and any temporary supply networks were then re-broken again. 00:14:18.668 --> 00:14:22.410 We really depended on water being brought into our city, 00:14:22.410 --> 00:14:25.868 not only for drinking -- what we also forget, it's about [inaudible], 00:14:25.868 --> 00:14:30.326 but we really forget it's about light industry and about food production. 00:14:30.326 --> 00:14:35.365 So many of our services to provide food to our community 00:14:35.365 --> 00:14:38.481 were also unable to operate. 00:14:40.774 --> 00:14:44.869 31% of our sewer pipes were damaged, so therefore, no toilets. 00:14:44.869 --> 00:14:47.124 And over the next two months, over 11,000 port-a-loos 00:14:47.124 --> 00:14:50.426 were brought into the city for people to use. 00:14:50.426 --> 00:14:54.904 And also, in the meantime, people were digging holes and storing waste. 00:14:54.904 --> 00:15:00.084 But not only were the systems broken in places, the biggest point about 00:15:00.084 --> 00:15:04.304 our wastewater and our stormwater systems is the land had tilted. 00:15:04.304 --> 00:15:06.470 The whole land platform had tilted. 00:15:06.470 --> 00:15:10.686 And those two networks were gravity-fed networks. 00:15:10.686 --> 00:15:13.974 So not only do we have breakage in certain areas affecting 00:15:13.974 --> 00:15:16.621 immediate communities on top of those breaks, 00:15:16.621 --> 00:15:21.040 the entire system stopped functioning because the land had tilted. 00:15:21.040 --> 00:15:26.017 So even if you were in an area away from broken pipes, that didn't mean 00:15:26.017 --> 00:15:30.270 that you weren't affected because your system didn't operate, either. 00:15:30.270 --> 00:15:33.082 The further west you went, the least breakage, 00:15:33.082 --> 00:15:37.977 but this land tilt meant that areas unexpectedly were not serviced. 00:15:39.370 --> 00:15:41.852 52% of roads -- sealed roads were damaged, 00:15:41.852 --> 00:15:44.543 so there was no way to drive for a long time. 00:15:44.543 --> 00:15:46.376 Not only were they damaged, but remember, we've now 00:15:46.376 --> 00:15:51.603 got 400,000 tons of silt sitting on some of these roads as well. 00:15:51.603 --> 00:15:57.079 We depended very considerably in that first period with volunteer service. 00:15:57.079 --> 00:15:59.910 I don't know if you've heard of our Student Volunteer Army, 00:15:59.910 --> 00:16:03.166 but 18,000 students rallied around from New Zealand and came with 00:16:03.166 --> 00:16:07.795 shovels and buckets and helped the community dig their homes and their 00:16:07.795 --> 00:16:13.411 gardens and their roads clear of silt so that they could start to move again. 00:16:16.291 --> 00:16:20.009 So you've all seen damage photos, but the hill damage, of course -- 00:16:20.009 --> 00:16:21.910 top left-hand corner. 00:16:21.910 --> 00:16:23.124 The flat damage. 00:16:23.124 --> 00:16:25.118 And it wasn't just low-income housing. 00:16:25.118 --> 00:16:30.176 Some of our best and most expensive housing was in areas of land damage. 00:16:30.176 --> 00:16:33.603 Because we tend to have some of our more wealthy communities 00:16:33.603 --> 00:16:39.164 up against water -- they like water views or they like sea views over cliffs. 00:16:39.164 --> 00:16:40.858 So some of our most expensive housing, 00:16:40.858 --> 00:16:45.302 as you'll see in that photo, was sitting on top of cliffs before the earthquake. 00:16:45.302 --> 00:16:48.988 And after the earthquake, they weren't sitting on top of a cliff. 00:16:49.472 --> 00:16:53.277 The demolition of this Port Hills is ongoing five years later. 00:16:53.277 --> 00:16:55.758 That house has only just recently been pushed down 00:16:55.758 --> 00:16:57.746 because of the dilemma of how to do it safely. 00:16:57.746 --> 00:17:00.950 How do you get people up there safely onto areas of land 00:17:00.950 --> 00:17:04.916 which is so damaged you wouldn't want to be there? 00:17:07.735 --> 00:17:11.749 So I've just put in a few slides here because driving here today, 00:17:11.749 --> 00:17:14.916 Michael said to me that you might want to see how we used some data 00:17:14.916 --> 00:17:16.966 that unexpectedly -- had to use data 00:17:16.966 --> 00:17:19.774 to try and work out where everybody had gone. 00:17:19.774 --> 00:17:23.690 And where people had gone, where business had gone, what was happening 00:17:23.690 --> 00:17:28.202 at 3:00 in the morning, you know, at lunchtime, at 3:00 in the afternoon. 00:17:28.202 --> 00:17:33.988 We needed to know where to focus our attention for people and for business. 00:17:33.988 --> 00:17:37.633 So we -- this is a good one. In November 2011, 00:17:37.633 --> 00:17:40.673 we were trying to estimate the residential abandonment. 00:17:41.048 --> 00:17:43.581 And we could street visit every week, 00:17:43.581 --> 00:17:46.814 and people were doing that, and the civil defense people were doing that. 00:17:46.814 --> 00:17:49.474 But one street, if you went back the next week, there could be 00:17:49.474 --> 00:17:53.441 people there who weren't there last week because they had come back. 00:17:53.441 --> 00:17:56.482 And one measure that we did use was using power meter data 00:17:56.482 --> 00:18:02.666 to work out areas of intensive house use or actually abandonment. 00:18:02.666 --> 00:18:06.545 To get to that data was -- would normally be extremely difficult. 00:18:06.545 --> 00:18:10.362 This was a good example of normal institutional barriers being dropped 00:18:10.362 --> 00:18:15.788 to allow us to access data sets that you normally wouldn't be able to access. 00:18:15.788 --> 00:18:21.019 And I really like -- we did the same in the hill areas. 00:18:21.019 --> 00:18:22.622 We were looking at change of power usage 00:18:22.622 --> 00:18:24.814 to be able to understand what was going on. 00:18:24.814 --> 00:18:29.240 This next one, I love it. It's a heat map, we call it. 00:18:29.240 --> 00:18:30.760 And Michael and I -- yes? 00:18:30.944 --> 00:18:34.552 - My name is [inaudible] with the California Geological Survey. 00:18:34.552 --> 00:18:38.553 When you -- talking about the electrical power, getting that data, 00:18:38.553 --> 00:18:41.048 how did you go about breaking through those barriers? 00:18:41.048 --> 00:18:42.154 - Very interesting. 00:18:42.154 --> 00:18:47.357 We thought -- we presumed it would be difficult. 00:18:47.357 --> 00:18:49.721 Because in normal times, it is difficult. 00:18:50.871 --> 00:18:54.900 One thing we have learned, and I'll talk about this shortly, is how shock 00:18:54.900 --> 00:18:59.844 magnifies weaknesses, but it also magnifies opportunities. 00:18:59.844 --> 00:19:02.642 And it also gets rid of institutional barriers. 00:19:02.642 --> 00:19:05.050 Everybody wants to help. 00:19:05.050 --> 00:19:08.387 So our chief executive, we -- his staff was saying, 00:19:08.387 --> 00:19:09.817 we don't know how we're going to do this. 00:19:09.817 --> 00:19:12.244 Our chief executive went and talked to the chief executive of the power 00:19:12.244 --> 00:19:17.775 company and said, we need your help. And he said, how can we help. 00:19:17.775 --> 00:19:21.730 So one of the lessons will be is how -- that's cool. 00:19:21.730 --> 00:19:25.011 That sort of interaction between sectors is really cool. 00:19:25.011 --> 00:19:27.610 Well, we've all retreated, of course, now back to normal behavior, 00:19:27.610 --> 00:19:29.410 which is what you see after events. 00:19:29.410 --> 00:19:32.334 So we needed to work out, what happens in that period of time when 00:19:32.334 --> 00:19:36.536 institutional barriers do get dropped to allow some very cool things to happen? 00:19:37.141 --> 00:19:39.038 And why do we retreat back? 00:19:39.038 --> 00:19:41.096 And some of those answers are quite clear, for example, 00:19:41.096 --> 00:19:43.678 commercial sensitivities. 00:19:43.678 --> 00:19:46.355 However, some of them are perceived risks. 00:19:46.355 --> 00:19:48.450 That's why we protect data. 00:19:48.450 --> 00:19:51.347 So there is a lot of work going on now about, you know, how could we have 00:19:51.347 --> 00:19:57.339 more ongoing strong relationships with asset owners to collaborate, 00:19:57.339 --> 00:20:01.891 not only in times of disaster but just actually in peace time? 00:20:01.891 --> 00:20:03.867 That work? 00:20:04.566 --> 00:20:07.391 We were trying to work out where businesses had gone. 00:20:07.391 --> 00:20:12.589 Now, we knew that the big businesses in the central city -- in the middle, 00:20:12.589 --> 00:20:15.470 that doesn't represent our central city. 00:20:15.470 --> 00:20:20.310 There's a little yellow right in the middle, but on our east, 00:20:20.310 --> 00:20:23.501 we had significant amount of light industrial business. 00:20:23.501 --> 00:20:25.321 So the businesses in the middle of the city had gone, 00:20:25.411 --> 00:20:27.274 of course, because it was the cordon. 00:20:27.274 --> 00:20:29.639 But we didn't know where businesses had displaced to. 00:20:29.639 --> 00:20:33.060 Because we were trying to find them and trying to find people. 00:20:33.060 --> 00:20:34.920 And one thing we did is we started to -- 00:20:34.920 --> 00:20:40.152 we got access to cell phone tower data at different times of the day. 00:20:40.152 --> 00:20:42.572 So at night, you could see that all the cell phones had retreated 00:20:42.572 --> 00:20:47.008 back to the suburbs into homes, but these particular sorts of heat maps, 00:20:47.116 --> 00:20:51.481 we were -- we were able to use them over a series of months to track 00:20:51.481 --> 00:20:55.285 the activity at 10:00 in the morning and at midday and at 2:00 in the afternoon 00:20:55.372 --> 00:20:57.791 so that -- and we assumed -- we made an assumption 00:20:57.937 --> 00:21:01.233 that a lot of that was business activity, and we were right. 00:21:01.233 --> 00:21:05.371 That's where people had moved their head offices to. 00:21:05.371 --> 00:21:08.960 And because buildings were gone or businesses were shut where 00:21:08.960 --> 00:21:11.984 they normally were, people were operating out of houses 00:21:11.984 --> 00:21:16.387 or garages or school buildings or whatever they could find. 00:21:16.387 --> 00:21:19.737 So this has allowed us to then work with the people like the 00:21:19.737 --> 00:21:27.144 transport people to recognize these new areas of intense activities 00:21:27.144 --> 00:21:30.672 so that we could then affect good outcomes with the traffic flow. 00:21:30.672 --> 00:21:34.348 We could move road systems to accommodate where business 00:21:34.348 --> 00:21:35.847 had gone to. 00:21:35.847 --> 00:21:38.798 So I just put a few of those slides in, and I can talk in more detail about 00:21:38.798 --> 00:21:41.945 some of the other cool things which happened with information 00:21:41.945 --> 00:21:46.810 that you wouldn't normally be able to do but we could do. 00:21:46.810 --> 00:21:49.278 And lastly, there was data collected by what's called 00:21:49.278 --> 00:21:52.391 our Earthquake Commission. It was able to tell us much about 00:21:52.391 --> 00:21:55.697 the impact of the quakes on residential dwellings, remembering that 00:21:55.697 --> 00:22:00.631 the 2006 census was the best available information pre-earthquake. 00:22:00.631 --> 00:22:04.277 All of these less formal data sets played a valuable role in giving us some 00:22:04.277 --> 00:22:09.472 situational intelligence on the status of business in residential Christchurch. 00:22:09.472 --> 00:22:12.563 It's worth noting that no smart meters were installed north of the Waimak 00:22:12.563 --> 00:22:18.118 River, which is in our northern city, so our knowledge of that area was limited. 00:22:19.799 --> 00:22:24.361 So just back to the facts, and then we'll move on to my observations. 00:22:24.361 --> 00:22:26.045 So more than 1,800 commercial buildings 00:22:26.045 --> 00:22:28.617 have now been taken down around the building. 00:22:28.617 --> 00:22:32.097 I don't know the exact percentage, but more than 50% of those 00:22:32.097 --> 00:22:37.575 are because of -- they are no longer economic to repair. 00:22:37.575 --> 00:22:41.817 So there's a difference between buildings being dangerous 00:22:41.817 --> 00:22:48.297 and therefore taken down versus no longer economic to repair. 00:22:48.297 --> 00:22:50.617 Our central city, you can see the gaps already. 00:22:50.617 --> 00:22:54.117 This was in 2013 -- just two years ago, of course. 00:22:54.117 --> 00:22:56.463 But even then, we still had some going, 00:22:56.463 --> 00:23:00.142 some were uncertain, and see how few were staying. 00:23:01.007 --> 00:23:03.413 We must remember, and we reiterate time and time again, 00:23:03.554 --> 00:23:06.875 the New Zealand building code did what it was meant to do. 00:23:06.875 --> 00:23:09.322 It kept people alive. 00:23:09.322 --> 00:23:12.484 It didn't, of course, take responsibility 00:23:12.484 --> 00:23:16.899 for retaining economic value in buildings. 00:23:18.800 --> 00:23:21.747 We'll get back to that economic value question. 00:23:22.361 --> 00:23:23.824 So what did we do about it? 00:23:23.824 --> 00:23:27.147 In a nutshell, the Christchurch city, like most first-world cities, 00:23:27.147 --> 00:23:31.163 we have normal regulatory financial leadership and governance 00:23:31.163 --> 00:23:36.235 frameworks -- were operating in our city before the earthquakes. 00:23:36.235 --> 00:23:40.897 But the -- and we also had our normal civil defense emergency management 00:23:40.897 --> 00:23:45.351 framework, which did kick in in that first emergency phase. 00:23:45.351 --> 00:23:48.882 It did an excellent job -- the civil defense framework. 00:23:48.882 --> 00:23:54.612 And they were extremely well-trained staff 00:23:54.612 --> 00:23:58.748 were in effect for the first eight weeks. 00:23:58.748 --> 00:24:00.687 Remembering we had multiple events, 00:24:00.687 --> 00:24:06.593 so that did re-trigger the civil defense framework from time to time. 00:24:06.593 --> 00:24:10.534 But because of the scale of the events and the destruction 00:24:10.534 --> 00:24:14.816 on both the community and the fabric, a new -- 00:24:14.816 --> 00:24:17.487 the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Act was introduced. 00:24:17.487 --> 00:24:19.829 And the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority 00:24:19.829 --> 00:24:23.225 was introduced to administer the act. 00:24:23.225 --> 00:24:28.001 The thing about the act -- the recovery act was it's extremely draconian. 00:24:28.001 --> 00:24:31.195 And I use that word quite forcefully because it does -- 00:24:31.195 --> 00:24:36.122 it could overrule all acts of Parliament in New Zealand except for two. 00:24:36.122 --> 00:24:39.605 So it even overruled our Resource Management Act and all the 00:24:39.605 --> 00:24:43.709 normal bylaws that our local council could normally operate with. 00:24:43.709 --> 00:24:48.555 So a very powerful piece of legislation was put in for five years. 00:24:48.555 --> 00:24:50.542 It finishes next April. 00:24:50.542 --> 00:24:54.121 There is now discussion -- no, sorry, there was agreement and announcement 00:24:54.121 --> 00:24:56.927 about four months ago now, it's going to be replaced 00:24:56.927 --> 00:25:01.546 with the Christchurch Regeneration Act. 00:25:01.546 --> 00:25:05.120 So we're moving from a recovery act, after five years. 00:25:05.120 --> 00:25:08.762 Recovery is not completed, and it will not be for a long time. 00:25:08.762 --> 00:25:11.627 So it's being replaced by a new act of Parliament 00:25:11.627 --> 00:25:14.599 called the Canterbury Regeneration Act. 00:25:14.599 --> 00:25:18.012 That is currently in the bill stage. It's in Parliament. 00:25:18.012 --> 00:25:20.037 And it's open for consultation. 00:25:20.037 --> 00:25:22.951 It's worth looking at it because we're trying to define 00:25:22.951 --> 00:25:25.480 what regeneration means. 00:25:25.480 --> 00:25:28.372 And of course, like, what does recovery mean? 00:25:28.372 --> 00:25:29.955 Everybody has a different view. 00:25:29.955 --> 00:25:34.747 So I think it's a very -- knowing five years later, we still feel 00:25:34.747 --> 00:25:38.794 we need an act of Parliament is something that you need to be aware of. 00:25:38.794 --> 00:25:43.785 Because we do need special powers still, even five years on. 00:25:44.938 --> 00:25:47.818 But one of my observations I'll make now is, from the beginning, 00:25:47.818 --> 00:25:53.557 I wonder if everybody who was involved in recovery in the institutional level, how 00:25:53.557 --> 00:25:56.745 they saw the people of Christchurch, the people who lived there. 00:25:56.745 --> 00:26:01.707 So were we clients, were we partners, or were we stakeholders? 00:26:02.177 --> 00:26:06.399 And those three words have completely different meanings. 00:26:06.399 --> 00:26:11.105 And if they're partners, then maybe there's some things 00:26:11.105 --> 00:26:13.794 we should have done slightly differently. 00:26:15.105 --> 00:26:18.627 So what else did we do? What collectively have we done? 00:26:18.627 --> 00:26:20.892 We put in the new act. We put in the recovery authority. 00:26:20.892 --> 00:26:24.647 But that's kind of clear, really, isn't it? Cash is king. 00:26:24.647 --> 00:26:28.190 New Zealand's highly insured, and New Zealanders are highly insured. 00:26:28.190 --> 00:26:32.284 This event was the fourth-to-largest insurance event on the planet ever -- 00:26:32.284 --> 00:26:36.086 although it's tiny, wee New Zealand and tiny, wee Christchurch -- 00:26:36.086 --> 00:26:40.861 that made the re-insurance industry around the world sit up and look. 00:26:40.861 --> 00:26:43.389 We have caused them quite a lot of dilemma. 00:26:43.389 --> 00:26:47.145 So knowing that we're -- houses are well-insured, our businesses 00:26:47.145 --> 00:26:50.170 are well-insured, our lives are highly insured, 00:26:50.170 --> 00:26:55.299 there's still an element of real risk at the beginning because nothing's working. 00:26:55.299 --> 00:26:56.723 There's no power. 00:26:56.723 --> 00:26:58.265 That means there's no money machines. 00:26:58.265 --> 00:27:00.379 There's no shops close by. 00:27:00.379 --> 00:27:03.640 You need to eat, and people need to get out of town. 00:27:03.640 --> 00:27:07.278 But on top of that, you need money to run your businesses. 00:27:07.278 --> 00:27:09.580 And the government worked very closely with some of the 00:27:09.580 --> 00:27:15.647 pre-existing relationship partners they had in Christchurch city, 00:27:15.647 --> 00:27:19.746 particularly in the business community, and said, what can we do to help 00:27:19.746 --> 00:27:24.421 keep you guys going past this very first period of time? 00:27:24.421 --> 00:27:28.708 And they said, cash is king. Our business owners need money 00:27:28.708 --> 00:27:33.210 to pay their staff, to pay their bills, to take the pressure off them 00:27:33.210 --> 00:27:36.728 as business owners, while they try to work out what was going on 00:27:36.728 --> 00:27:39.801 with their business and also while they were trying to work out 00:27:39.801 --> 00:27:42.475 what to do with their insurance. 00:27:42.475 --> 00:27:47.765 And so what was called the Business Wage Subsidy was introduced. 00:27:47.765 --> 00:27:51.720 And it's different from what has happened here, I understand, 00:27:51.720 --> 00:27:55.055 where grants and subsidies are given to individuals here. 00:27:55.467 --> 00:27:58.805 The grants were given to the business owners. 00:27:58.805 --> 00:28:00.998 Just to reiterate, this is the private sector, by the way. 00:28:00.998 --> 00:28:03.805 So public sector salaries were still getting paid. 00:28:03.805 --> 00:28:07.274 And the private sector, very -- it took very little to prove 00:28:07.274 --> 00:28:09.565 that you owned a business because our systems 00:28:09.565 --> 00:28:12.440 in New Zealand -- our tax systems record that anyway. 00:28:12.440 --> 00:28:15.278 A business owner filled in a form. They got money. 00:28:15.278 --> 00:28:18.720 That money was used to pay a wage subsidy. 00:28:18.720 --> 00:28:20.526 Not only did it mean that the business owner 00:28:20.526 --> 00:28:24.365 didn't have to worry, the worker didn't have to worry. 00:28:24.365 --> 00:28:28.102 So the day after the earthquake -- this took about a week or two or three. 00:28:28.102 --> 00:28:32.005 But the workers -- people could stop worrying about having to go to work 00:28:32.005 --> 00:28:37.044 to earn some money to feed their family or to get their family out of town. 00:28:37.044 --> 00:28:39.566 Their salary was going to get paid. 00:28:39.566 --> 00:28:42.182 The unintended consequence -- but actually maybe an intended 00:28:42.182 --> 00:28:46.210 consequence -- I shouldn't say that, is that it meant that those people, 00:28:46.210 --> 00:28:49.182 rather than worrying about going to work, they could stay at home 00:28:49.182 --> 00:28:52.991 in their community and be the parent they wanted to be or the child they 00:28:52.991 --> 00:28:57.009 wanted to be or the school board representative they wanted to be. 00:28:57.009 --> 00:28:59.361 They could help dig their community out of the mud. 00:28:59.361 --> 00:29:02.017 They could make -- do the barbecue that night. 00:29:02.017 --> 00:29:04.623 So we transferred our business workforce back 00:29:04.623 --> 00:29:07.623 into their own communities by unlocking them from the fear 00:29:07.623 --> 00:29:11.706 of business failure because there wasn't enough cash. 00:29:11.706 --> 00:29:14.116 Another thing with -- just done with cash, which I didn't realize 00:29:14.116 --> 00:29:17.119 until quite recently, is I think some of you 00:29:17.119 --> 00:29:21.105 have met the vice chancellor of Canterbury University, Rod Carr. 00:29:21.105 --> 00:29:24.918 He gave every student $50 cash. 00:29:24.918 --> 00:29:26.985 It doesn't sound like a lot, but it was enough to buy your food 00:29:26.985 --> 00:29:30.601 or your bus ticket out of town or actually just to manage yourself 00:29:30.601 --> 00:29:32.854 for the next couple of days. 00:29:32.854 --> 00:29:36.326 Now, I suspect it's an unintended consequence this time, but because 00:29:36.326 --> 00:29:41.719 these kids had a way to survive for a little bit, they chose not to leave. 00:29:41.719 --> 00:29:46.404 And they're the ones who turned out to be this enormous volunteer army -- 00:29:46.404 --> 00:29:49.725 the Student Volunteer Army we had in Christchurch city. 00:29:49.725 --> 00:29:53.849 As I said, we had tens of thousands of students rallied by the 00:29:53.849 --> 00:29:57.090 university students in Canterbury University. 00:29:57.090 --> 00:30:00.901 And they literally dug the communities out of the bog. 00:30:01.585 --> 00:30:04.438 Unintended consequence of a bit of cash? Who knows. 00:30:04.438 --> 00:30:09.575 But the power of cash is king -- I really think we need to learn from that. 00:30:10.220 --> 00:30:12.905 Red zoning. So what is the red zone? 00:30:12.905 --> 00:30:17.567 We need to change that title, in my view. It has an element of negativity to it now. 00:30:17.567 --> 00:30:20.077 But that's the river running through our city. 00:30:20.077 --> 00:30:24.018 So the weakest land that subsided the most, 00:30:24.018 --> 00:30:27.813 it is still sitting on vulnerable soils and gravel beds. 00:30:29.909 --> 00:30:32.518 The government had to work out collectively with everybody else 00:30:32.518 --> 00:30:35.691 in that very short period of time what to do with the tens of thousands 00:30:35.691 --> 00:30:41.234 of people at homes in this district, which is substantially destroyed. 00:30:41.234 --> 00:30:43.900 The government had a different -- and it's a very specific problem, 00:30:43.900 --> 00:30:46.836 as that, in the 1930s, the New Zealand government 00:30:46.836 --> 00:30:50.557 set up their own insurance company called EQC. 00:30:51.369 --> 00:30:54.216 The New Zealand government insures land underneath 00:30:54.216 --> 00:30:56.804 residential houses in New Zealand. 00:30:57.332 --> 00:31:00.335 So they take responsibility as an insurance company. 00:31:00.335 --> 00:31:02.903 So they had two hats here. 00:31:02.903 --> 00:31:09.222 They had not only as the -- responsible for the citizens of New Zealand and the 00:31:09.222 --> 00:31:13.459 citizens of these communities, but they also had a financial risk because they 00:31:13.459 --> 00:31:17.729 owned an insurance company to repair the land under these homes. 00:31:17.729 --> 00:31:22.583 So cut a long story short, the decision was made to offer people in the worst 00:31:22.583 --> 00:31:26.212 affected areas, which is what we called it at the time -- now known as the 00:31:26.212 --> 00:31:34.169 red zones -- that people were offered the 2007 value of their properties. 00:31:34.169 --> 00:31:39.683 So the government offered to buy your home off you if you chose. 00:31:39.683 --> 00:31:43.308 And there was a lot of dilemma there because a lot of people have -- 00:31:43.308 --> 00:31:45.603 over the years, some people have seen that as compulsory 00:31:45.603 --> 00:31:48.709 acquisition, but it's not. It was an offer. 00:31:48.709 --> 00:31:52.968 Some people did not accept it and are still there. 00:31:52.968 --> 00:31:56.829 And also the dilemma is, now, as a taxpayer, we own large swaths 00:31:56.829 --> 00:32:02.875 of land through the city, which 99.9% of people have moved out. 00:32:02.875 --> 00:32:05.237 And those homes have now been cleared. 00:32:05.237 --> 00:32:10.890 So we own, collectively, every taxpayer, this large area of land that we now 00:32:10.890 --> 00:32:14.182 collectively have to decide what to do with. 00:32:14.182 --> 00:32:19.675 So as taxpayers -- so it's the federal government. They've got a view. 00:32:19.675 --> 00:32:23.649 And of course, the people who live there as ratepayers in the city have a view 00:32:23.649 --> 00:32:27.879 about what they want done with this land in the future. 00:32:27.879 --> 00:32:30.588 These discussions are only just starting now. 00:32:30.588 --> 00:32:32.867 And so when we talk about long-term recovery, we haven't 00:32:32.867 --> 00:32:36.779 even started yet really engaging with the community on the 00:32:36.779 --> 00:32:43.655 future use of a very, very large part of our city fabric. 00:32:45.792 --> 00:32:48.764 So there it is, the red zone on the right-hand side of the city 00:32:48.764 --> 00:32:51.182 with the coast on the side, of course. 00:32:51.182 --> 00:32:53.802 And in the middle, you can see the square box. 00:32:53.802 --> 00:32:57.209 On the left of the square box, the green part is Hagley Park. 00:32:57.209 --> 00:33:00.369 The right-hand side of that was our central business district. 00:33:00.369 --> 00:33:03.269 So another very instrumental thing that we did, and that collectively 00:33:03.269 --> 00:33:06.946 was done in that first six months was the creation of the 00:33:06.946 --> 00:33:10.946 Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team, otherwise known 00:33:10.946 --> 00:33:15.276 as SCIRT, which is kind of cool when 99% of the staff are men, 00:33:15.276 --> 00:33:17.748 but we moved through that moment. 00:33:17.748 --> 00:33:22.578 But what happened is it was pretty clear from the beginning 00:33:22.578 --> 00:33:26.302 that this job of fixing the infrastructure was bigger than Ben-Hur. 00:33:26.302 --> 00:33:28.266 We just didn't -- it was bigger than any system 00:33:28.266 --> 00:33:32.837 that we had or collective idea of how we were going to do it. 00:33:32.837 --> 00:33:38.408 So it was agreed that there would be a new -- I use the word "alliance." 00:33:38.408 --> 00:33:41.309 That is not a common structure of alliance. 00:33:41.309 --> 00:33:43.949 An alliance of three funders. 00:33:43.949 --> 00:33:47.109 So the Christchurch City Council, who owned the Three Waters 00:33:47.109 --> 00:33:49.278 in-roading system. 00:33:49.278 --> 00:33:51.702 With the New Zealand Transport Authority, which is the equivalent 00:33:51.702 --> 00:33:58.677 your federal roading people who own -- who look after state -- or the main 00:33:58.677 --> 00:34:04.734 road system around the country but also cost-share some of the roads -- 00:34:04.734 --> 00:34:08.120 the main roads through cities. They're the asset owners -- 00:34:08.120 --> 00:34:10.643 the Christchurch City Council and the NZTA. 00:34:10.643 --> 00:34:13.299 Then we had a third one, which was the Christchurch 00:34:13.299 --> 00:34:16.936 Earthquake Recovery Authority. So we came in as a funder through 00:34:16.936 --> 00:34:21.916 the recovery lens, not through the asset owner or asset manager lens. 00:34:21.916 --> 00:34:25.383 And collectively, the three funders formed an alliance with the 00:34:25.383 --> 00:34:31.064 five largest construction companies in the Southeast Asia area. 00:34:31.723 --> 00:34:35.290 And the difference between a normal alliance and this one -- 00:34:35.290 --> 00:34:37.182 one of the difference -- two things -- commercial 00:34:37.182 --> 00:34:40.816 teaching model was put into it, which I can describe more about if you wish. 00:34:41.404 --> 00:34:44.107 But more importantly, for the five constructors, there were 00:34:44.107 --> 00:34:50.763 three funder partners with three strategic views on what recovery is. 00:34:50.763 --> 00:34:53.887 So that's been a real dilemma over the last five years 00:34:53.887 --> 00:34:56.438 about what the job of recovery is. 00:34:56.438 --> 00:35:00.830 Was it a recovery function or an asset management function? 00:35:00.830 --> 00:35:04.156 Asset repair function or a service delivery function? 00:35:04.156 --> 00:35:08.308 So we'll get back to this issue of prioritization in a minute. 00:35:08.308 --> 00:35:11.230 The first six months of this work program, we asked 00:35:11.230 --> 00:35:15.821 the asset owners who had all their fabulous, skilled engineers working 00:35:15.821 --> 00:35:20.856 for them, so the civil engineers -- of course, all forms of engineers, 00:35:20.856 --> 00:35:23.734 they had to become familiar with geotech engineers 00:35:23.734 --> 00:35:27.503 who they didn't have embedded into the council so much. 00:35:27.503 --> 00:35:30.942 Because we hadn't realized how vulnerable our land was. 00:35:30.942 --> 00:35:33.929 But at this stage, I was then brought into CERA 00:35:33.929 --> 00:35:38.006 to help work out what the job was of this new agency. 00:35:38.094 --> 00:35:42.802 So it was being constructed in the first year. But what was its job? 00:35:42.802 --> 00:35:45.555 And if you -- so the engineers wanted to get on and build it 00:35:45.555 --> 00:35:52.135 through the asset lens -- rebuilding the assets. 00:35:52.135 --> 00:35:55.551 But we had the social -- the people who are very interested in people 00:35:55.551 --> 00:35:58.392 who wanted to do it a different way, or the economists. 00:35:58.392 --> 00:36:00.634 So I'll explain how we went about this. 00:36:00.634 --> 00:36:03.861 For the first six months, we said to the Christchurch City Council 00:36:03.861 --> 00:36:08.125 and the NZTA, can you please get on with asset assessments. 00:36:08.125 --> 00:36:10.286 Because you are the experts. You know these assets. 00:36:10.286 --> 00:36:12.774 They're your assets, and you know how to assess. 00:36:13.458 --> 00:36:18.848 So away they went. This started when they were set up in September 2011. 00:36:18.848 --> 00:36:22.228 But also please keep in mind that we were continuing to have earthquakes. 00:36:22.228 --> 00:36:24.315 So I feel so sorry for those guys. 00:36:24.315 --> 00:36:27.074 We sent them a function, but every two or six -- you know, two months 00:36:27.074 --> 00:36:29.661 or another six weeks later, we'd have another event. 00:36:29.661 --> 00:36:33.427 So any assessment they had done, to a certain extent, had to get re-assessed. 00:36:33.427 --> 00:36:36.562 We had set a time clock for them, and they had six months 00:36:36.562 --> 00:36:39.675 to tell us as much as they could. 00:36:39.675 --> 00:36:44.269 In the meantime, I set forth with as many people as I possibly could, 00:36:44.269 --> 00:36:46.515 knowing the engineers were doing what we called the first layer 00:36:46.515 --> 00:36:50.754 of the map -- of the infrastructure rebuild map. 00:36:51.262 --> 00:36:55.036 And I had sat down with -- collectively with all the social agencies. 00:36:55.036 --> 00:36:59.027 Then -- I'm not a specialist, but I know how to bring people together. 00:36:59.027 --> 00:37:01.689 So I found them, the main people -- the earthquake 00:37:01.689 --> 00:37:06.228 recovery authority had a social team -- social management team. 00:37:06.228 --> 00:37:08.643 So did the Christchurch City Council, of course. 00:37:08.643 --> 00:37:11.205 But by then, we had Red Cross in town. We had everybody that you would 00:37:11.205 --> 00:37:15.121 normally expect who comes into a city after an event. 00:37:15.121 --> 00:37:19.193 So we asked them, if we gave you this map, and -- 00:37:19.193 --> 00:37:21.202 well, we said, here's the map. 00:37:21.202 --> 00:37:24.889 If it was up to you through the social lens, in which order 00:37:24.889 --> 00:37:27.847 would you repair the infrastructure underneath the ground? 00:37:27.847 --> 00:37:30.326 The three water systems, the telecommunications, 00:37:30.326 --> 00:37:33.078 the energy systems, and the roads. 00:37:33.078 --> 00:37:35.226 In which order to affect the best outcomes 00:37:35.226 --> 00:37:38.484 for you through the social lens? 00:37:38.484 --> 00:37:42.320 And at the same time, we did exactly the same through the economic lens. 00:37:42.320 --> 00:37:44.827 We spoke to the business community, and we said, if you were allowed 00:37:44.827 --> 00:37:48.964 to build the city in an order that you think is best to keep 00:37:48.964 --> 00:37:52.094 the economy functioning, which order would you build it in? 00:37:52.094 --> 00:37:55.164 And we did the same with the environmental teams. 00:37:55.164 --> 00:38:00.901 And at the same time, I was working back in Wellington at the equivalent 00:38:00.901 --> 00:38:03.957 of the federal government, and asked the ministries who owned the 00:38:03.957 --> 00:38:09.952 above-ground assets -- so schools, particularly medical emergency, 00:38:09.952 --> 00:38:13.392 schooling, and housing -- exactly the same question. 00:38:13.757 --> 00:38:17.145 If you were allowed to decide which order we put -- 00:38:17.145 --> 00:38:20.252 we fixed the roads and the pipes. 00:38:20.884 --> 00:38:24.393 So this enormous program of work was set off in September 2011. 00:38:24.393 --> 00:38:30.282 And the engineers came up with their map on the 17th of February 2012. 00:38:30.282 --> 00:38:35.745 And they presented us with the first map of how they'd build it as engineers. 00:38:35.745 --> 00:38:40.123 And it was a fabulous exercise. We sat down with big maps. 00:38:40.123 --> 00:38:43.252 And what they wanted to do was start in the east, of course, because it was 00:38:43.252 --> 00:38:47.278 more damaged, and some of our main gravity-fed systems 00:38:47.278 --> 00:38:51.347 had their hubs on the east, like the Bromley septic system. 00:38:51.347 --> 00:38:54.101 And then they wanted to progressively move west. 00:38:54.101 --> 00:38:58.498 Those colors shows time scale, by the way, but I won't show -- that's another 00:38:58.498 --> 00:39:04.890 whole lecture -- but fundamentally from east to west, they wanted to go. 00:39:04.890 --> 00:39:07.052 So then we talked to the social people, and said, well, look, we're going to 00:39:07.052 --> 00:39:10.344 go from east to west, we think, unless you tell us you want any different. 00:39:10.344 --> 00:39:14.243 But they said, hm, that's not so bad because most of our most vulnerable 00:39:14.243 --> 00:39:16.605 communities are on the most damaged land 00:39:16.605 --> 00:39:19.400 in the poorer housing, which is in the east. 00:39:20.040 --> 00:39:23.263 So they weren't uncomfortable with us starting in the east 00:39:23.263 --> 00:39:26.593 knowing that those services were going to get fixed first. 00:39:26.593 --> 00:39:30.249 So therefore, being able to fix the physicality of the most 00:39:30.249 --> 00:39:33.082 vulnerable communities first, before we got to some of 00:39:33.082 --> 00:39:35.517 our more wealthier communities in the west. 00:39:35.840 --> 00:39:38.343 However, there were pockets of social 00:39:38.343 --> 00:39:41.762 vulnerable communities, of course, right around the city. 00:39:41.762 --> 00:39:44.036 So when they were -- it became apparent that we weren't going to get to 00:39:44.036 --> 00:39:48.913 some of those other areas for four, five, or six years, what happened is, 00:39:48.913 --> 00:39:53.405 Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team and the social agencies 00:39:53.405 --> 00:39:57.895 pulled together and built the most amazing social engagement 00:39:57.895 --> 00:40:03.065 program to go with this program of work so that those communities 00:40:03.065 --> 00:40:06.386 who were going to be left last, who were quite vulnerable, 00:40:06.386 --> 00:40:09.490 had an intense social program put into them. 00:40:09.490 --> 00:40:13.828 But also, the communication around this program was intense at all times. 00:40:13.828 --> 00:40:18.117 Lots of warning about why somebody was coming to dig up your road 00:40:18.117 --> 00:40:22.211 or make it harder for you to operate for six months or six weeks. 00:40:22.211 --> 00:40:25.428 But also in areas -- why they aren't coming to you now. 00:40:25.428 --> 00:40:27.869 Because when people aren't -- when you don't see things being 00:40:27.869 --> 00:40:31.932 fixed fast in your area, you feel very vulnerable, and you get quite angry. 00:40:32.372 --> 00:40:35.734 So they did an amazing job of talking to the people. 00:40:36.363 --> 00:40:39.711 Through the business lens was the first time we really had to kind of tweak 00:40:39.711 --> 00:40:45.071 the program in early 2012 away from optimal engineering solutions. 00:40:45.071 --> 00:40:48.932 Because down -- more to the southeast on the map here, 00:40:48.932 --> 00:40:52.371 in the area which we weren't going to get to for about 18 months, optimally, 00:40:52.371 --> 00:40:56.539 for the engineers, was where our light industrial area was. 00:40:56.539 --> 00:40:59.251 And we needed them functioning pretty quickly. 00:40:59.251 --> 00:41:05.131 So SCIRT created more programs of temporary work in that area to get those 00:41:05.131 --> 00:41:10.358 businesses up and running quite quickly in that 12-month period. 00:41:11.000 --> 00:41:13.854 At this stage, at a policy and strategy level, behind this direction 00:41:13.854 --> 00:41:17.373 and instruction, is a nervousness that, every time you move something 00:41:17.373 --> 00:41:21.310 off the optimal engineering map, every time you literally move 00:41:21.310 --> 00:41:24.943 their design plan, that comes with a financial cost 00:41:24.943 --> 00:41:27.799 because it's no longer optimal or most efficient. 00:41:28.033 --> 00:41:31.279 So we had to -- we had to weigh up constantly -- 00:41:31.279 --> 00:41:35.166 every time we asked the chief executive to think about changing the way 00:41:35.166 --> 00:41:37.154 that they were going to do this system because 00:41:37.154 --> 00:41:41.738 somebody was going to have to pay for that to change. 00:41:41.738 --> 00:41:45.015 And then, through the environmental lens, we did the same thing. 00:41:45.015 --> 00:41:48.988 So some pipes from -- some parts of the city 00:41:48.988 --> 00:41:52.747 were dumping more stuff into rivers than they wanted -- 00:41:52.747 --> 00:41:54.624 -- the environmentalists, or actually anybody, 00:41:54.624 --> 00:41:56.775 because it was water quality risk, so we had to put some 00:41:56.775 --> 00:42:01.476 temporary programs of work into some areas to stop that, 00:42:01.476 --> 00:42:05.166 knowing that the permanent repair solution wasn't coming for some time. 00:42:05.858 --> 00:42:09.751 This story is all about collaboration. 00:42:09.751 --> 00:42:13.297 And there is -- SCIRT is doing a legacy program at the moment. 00:42:13.297 --> 00:42:14.993 You need to become familiar with it. 00:42:14.993 --> 00:42:18.404 They've got a large program discussion there about how they brought these 00:42:18.404 --> 00:42:26.075 communities of people together and how effective it's been, and it is still going. 00:42:26.075 --> 00:42:30.606 So in the end, the prioritization model does look like -- oops, I'll just -- 00:42:30.606 --> 00:42:35.248 I'll go back -- was asset criticality first, of course, asset interdependence, 00:42:35.248 --> 00:42:39.252 but then we introduced and we agreed onto that map 00:42:39.252 --> 00:42:42.002 the social outcome statements, so medical, emergency, 00:42:42.002 --> 00:42:46.839 schooling, housing, and transport systems were then put onto the map. 00:42:46.839 --> 00:42:49.735 We also had some temporary dependencies put on. 00:42:49.735 --> 00:42:52.285 So engineers want to fix roads and bridges 00:42:52.285 --> 00:42:56.382 so people can go from A to B in a particular order. 00:42:56.382 --> 00:42:58.615 But we had to ask them to change that, too, 00:42:58.615 --> 00:43:03.042 because bridges weren't being used just for normal behavior. 00:43:03.042 --> 00:43:08.275 We had 400,000 tons of liquefaction to move out by truck, but the -- 00:43:08.275 --> 00:43:12.340 most of the central business district was being deconstructed. 00:43:12.340 --> 00:43:17.053 So truckload of truckload after truckload of serious waste 00:43:17.053 --> 00:43:19.485 was being moved out of the city. 00:43:19.485 --> 00:43:22.697 And a couple of the bridges that they were using, which were the ones 00:43:22.697 --> 00:43:27.790 which were still able to be used, were right through residential zones. 00:43:27.790 --> 00:43:31.250 So we had to work really closely with the demolition program people 00:43:31.250 --> 00:43:35.061 and the infrastructure rebuild people and the social people because actually 00:43:35.061 --> 00:43:38.682 it wasn't optimal to have 24/7 trucks -- large trucks moving through 00:43:38.682 --> 00:43:42.615 communities, moving demolition waste in a hurry because that's 00:43:42.615 --> 00:43:44.488 what the demos boys needed to do. 00:43:44.488 --> 00:43:47.998 They were instructed to get it out of town through these communities. 00:43:47.998 --> 00:43:51.875 So we had to actually temporarily repair some other routes 00:43:51.875 --> 00:43:56.135 to allow trucks for demolition waste not to go through communities. 00:43:56.135 --> 00:43:59.035 Again, not optimal for the demolition program or 00:43:59.035 --> 00:44:03.566 for the engineering program, but actually optimal for the community. 00:44:03.566 --> 00:44:07.582 So a very powerful -- some lessons can come from Christchurch 00:44:07.582 --> 00:44:10.871 about this interdependence between different programs 00:44:10.871 --> 00:44:14.321 and trying to keep the people at the top of the list. 00:44:14.321 --> 00:44:16.953 The other things we've done, of course, in the middle of the city -- 00:44:16.953 --> 00:44:20.190 so this is a magnified view of our CBD. 00:44:20.190 --> 00:44:23.051 Park on the left and the central city on the right. 00:44:23.051 --> 00:44:26.181 So I'm not going to dwell on this too long because we haven't got time, but we 00:44:26.181 --> 00:44:31.320 have created a new central city recovery plan and another whole structure. 00:44:31.320 --> 00:44:36.702 A regular -- a formal new plan, which is redesigning our central city, 00:44:37.346 --> 00:44:42.378 The intention was try to intensify new development into the middle and 00:44:42.378 --> 00:44:48.211 to create a nice place in the next five, 10, or 20 years for the city to be reborn. 00:44:49.546 --> 00:44:53.526 So along the way, lots more new toolkits have been designed -- new land zones, 00:44:53.526 --> 00:44:57.480 new codes, new foundation solutions, new building techniques. 00:44:57.480 --> 00:44:59.646 The SCIRT mechanisms, of course. 00:44:59.646 --> 00:45:02.746 And now we're also moving into this new -- these new frameworks 00:45:02.746 --> 00:45:07.800 of governance and leadership and statutory frameworks five years on. 00:45:07.800 --> 00:45:09.814 So it's been announced that Canterbury Earthquake 00:45:09.814 --> 00:45:14.144 Recovery Authority is being transitioned out next April. 00:45:14.144 --> 00:45:18.478 And we're getting a new Regeneration Christchurch agency, 00:45:18.478 --> 00:45:22.799 which is a collaboration between the government and the local council. 00:45:22.799 --> 00:45:25.715 It has an independent board who are going to be appointed 00:45:25.715 --> 00:45:30.015 collectively by the minister and the mayor of the city. 00:45:30.015 --> 00:45:34.212 So a whole different way of functioning is now about to kick in. 00:45:34.212 --> 00:45:36.487 Far more partnership and far more collaboration 00:45:36.487 --> 00:45:39.313 at the senior governance and leadership level, which is giving 00:45:39.313 --> 00:45:44.406 the community much more feeling of ownership of the future of the city. 00:45:44.406 --> 00:45:47.122 So the next five years are going to be equally as intense 00:45:47.122 --> 00:45:51.223 as the last five, but in completely different frameworks. 00:45:52.672 --> 00:45:56.902 So now $100 million of rebuilds are happening a week in the city now. 00:45:56.902 --> 00:46:01.689 We've got more -- finally we've got more cranes on the skyline 00:46:01.689 --> 00:46:05.695 putting buildings up rather than taking them down. 00:46:05.695 --> 00:46:09.466 And -- but we've still got very large areas of the city still to be filled. 00:46:09.466 --> 00:46:11.614 One good thing is we now know the vulnerability 00:46:11.756 --> 00:46:13.753 of the central city to the river system. 00:46:13.753 --> 00:46:16.473 So we're not -- we're not going to block it out. 00:46:16.473 --> 00:46:19.518 We're just -- we're turning our city to face the river, 00:46:19.518 --> 00:46:22.919 but we now know how to build next to the rivers. 00:46:23.614 --> 00:46:27.362 So the middle of the city there on the top right, still large areas which are vacant. 00:46:27.362 --> 00:46:31.385 Bottom left is one of our historic precincts, which has reopened again. 00:46:31.385 --> 00:46:33.759 Top left is the temporary cathedral. 00:46:33.759 --> 00:46:36.586 Temporary -- it might be there for 50 years. We're not sure. 00:46:36.586 --> 00:46:40.312 Bottom right, we have literally got block after block after block 00:46:40.312 --> 00:46:44.420 of new buildings being built and suburb after suburb after suburb 00:46:44.420 --> 00:46:49.151 of new housing being built to new codes. 00:46:49.151 --> 00:46:52.207 So what are the other things that have made -- in my view, made the biggest 00:46:52.207 --> 00:46:55.478 difference in the last few years and are still making the biggest difference? 00:46:55.478 --> 00:46:58.421 So we're now open to trying new ways of doing things. 00:46:58.764 --> 00:47:01.735 We have the new land use strategy. We have created a new resilience 00:47:01.735 --> 00:47:04.462 framework and a new sustainability framework. 00:47:04.462 --> 00:47:09.820 And we're working at new ways to create -- to attract private investment. 00:47:09.820 --> 00:47:13.123 There's a new imperative in the dialogue about future shock. 00:47:13.123 --> 00:47:15.322 We have a growing acceptance of the transformational technologies 00:47:15.322 --> 00:47:17.551 that we're going to be using in the future. 00:47:17.551 --> 00:47:20.133 And we have just kicked off in New Zealand the national recovery 00:47:20.133 --> 00:47:23.217 legacy program that I will talk to you about, but later, 00:47:23.217 --> 00:47:26.595 because that's what you need to connect to. 00:47:26.595 --> 00:47:29.040 But what, in my view, might we have thought about -- 00:47:29.040 --> 00:47:33.244 should we think about in the big scheme of things? 00:47:33.244 --> 00:47:36.417 In hindsight, were we, from the beginning, on the same page, 00:47:36.417 --> 00:47:39.867 or did we stay in our sectors for too long? 00:47:39.867 --> 00:47:42.601 What did recovery mean? 00:47:42.601 --> 00:47:45.573 So for the geotech engineers, recovery is about land repair. 00:47:45.573 --> 00:47:48.553 For most other engineers, it was about building back. 00:47:48.553 --> 00:47:51.332 For policy planners, it was about making sure the right regulations 00:47:51.332 --> 00:47:53.841 were in place and policies were in place. 00:47:53.841 --> 00:47:57.220 But did we all have a view to whether we wanted to build back -- 00:47:57.220 --> 00:48:00.474 build back or build forwards? 00:48:00.474 --> 00:48:03.599 And I do think that we have a tendency to want to build back. 00:48:03.599 --> 00:48:05.615 We look in the rear-view mirror. 00:48:05.615 --> 00:48:09.240 We don't think -- actually, some of what we had before 00:48:09.240 --> 00:48:12.288 was sub-optimal anyway -- was degenerating. 00:48:12.288 --> 00:48:14.767 Or the building codes -- now we know more. 00:48:14.767 --> 00:48:17.840 We need to think completely differently. 00:48:18.679 --> 00:48:19.901 I'm going through these really fast. 00:48:19.901 --> 00:48:22.487 I'm not -- I'm going to skip over that one because I'm conscious of time. 00:48:22.487 --> 00:48:26.626 One of the things that is very important is, for the first two years, 00:48:26.626 --> 00:48:31.486 we deferred to this thinking -- phases of recovery, 00:48:31.486 --> 00:48:34.626 which were linear -- one after the other, more or less. 00:48:34.697 --> 00:48:40.616 So emergency, then restoration, then reconstruction, and then improvement. 00:48:40.616 --> 00:48:43.672 This is -- this is -- this is very much civil defense thinking, 00:48:43.672 --> 00:48:45.687 which is right in their framework. 00:48:45.687 --> 00:48:48.130 Because their view is emergency framework. 00:48:48.130 --> 00:48:50.491 But putting off improvement right out at the end creates 00:48:50.491 --> 00:48:54.696 real problems at the beginning, or in long-term now, about the place 00:48:54.696 --> 00:48:58.291 of improvement, resilience, and betterment, and the -- 00:48:58.291 --> 00:49:01.925 and the whole of recovery over time. 00:49:01.925 --> 00:49:05.503 So it took us two years to realize it's not a nice -- like that. 00:49:05.503 --> 00:49:08.134 It's actually more like this. 00:49:08.134 --> 00:49:10.376 I think this turns into a slide. I'll just see. 00:49:10.376 --> 00:49:11.514 Yes. 00:49:11.514 --> 00:49:14.662 So they are overlapping. 00:49:14.662 --> 00:49:16.254 They take time. 00:49:16.254 --> 00:49:18.840 And reconstruction starts at the beginning. 00:49:18.840 --> 00:49:23.021 We also realized that visioning and looking forwards should have started -- 00:49:23.021 --> 00:49:27.800 oopsie daisy -- should have started right back at the beginning. 00:49:27.800 --> 00:49:31.026 That, as I said, took us 18 months to two years to realize. 00:49:31.026 --> 00:49:33.129 So there are some lost opportunities around 00:49:33.129 --> 00:49:36.790 some of the strategic thinking in that first two years. 00:49:38.635 --> 00:49:40.779 - Question on that. So are you saying that maybe 00:49:40.779 --> 00:49:44.550 within the -- like, what would be the optimal to start that thinking about 00:49:44.550 --> 00:49:48.063 what new -- what the new looks like? Six months or ... 00:49:48.352 --> 00:49:49.933 - No. - ... [inaudible] or ... 00:49:49.933 --> 00:49:52.591 - So I want to create a new slide. I haven't found it yet. 00:49:52.591 --> 00:49:53.919 Good question. 00:49:53.919 --> 00:49:58.896 Optimally, it should be way back here before any event. 00:49:58.896 --> 00:50:00.896 Because you never know what event's going to happen, 00:50:00.896 --> 00:50:03.093 where it's going to happen, and when it's going to happen. 00:50:03.093 --> 00:50:08.333 So at any time, if you're in the field of recovery, you should be very, very 00:50:08.333 --> 00:50:13.017 familiar with the communities that you're involved in in peace time, like now. 00:50:13.388 --> 00:50:15.706 So this particular valley, right now, no earthquake. 00:50:15.706 --> 00:50:17.627 So you need to understand what the people who live 00:50:17.627 --> 00:50:20.998 and work here think their future is. 00:50:20.998 --> 00:50:22.666 And you should take your blinkers off about 00:50:22.666 --> 00:50:25.138 what's happening right now and think, actually, in the 00:50:25.138 --> 00:50:28.769 -- in the -- in 20 years, what might this community look like. 00:50:28.769 --> 00:50:32.644 So if an event happens, you don't get stuck in the time you -- 00:50:32.644 --> 00:50:35.663 when that event happens. The conversations about 00:50:35.663 --> 00:50:39.734 the future of that community have already been happening. 00:50:39.734 --> 00:50:44.253 So even these slides indicate that these conversations start at the beginning, 00:50:44.253 --> 00:50:49.170 which is the latest you should do it is the day after the earthquake. 00:50:49.170 --> 00:50:53.480 These conversations are, for you, not about when an event happens. 00:50:53.480 --> 00:50:58.916 You should really be very, very familiar with your community's futures now. 00:50:58.916 --> 00:51:01.659 So I know that sounds very esoteric and strategic. 00:51:01.659 --> 00:51:05.720 But if you fly in to help a community, and you don't understand 00:51:05.720 --> 00:51:09.113 what they think their future is, then it will take you at least 00:51:09.113 --> 00:51:13.743 a year or two, like it has for many of us, to understand what that is. 00:51:13.743 --> 00:51:16.658 This is very important in the world of underlying 00:51:16.658 --> 00:51:19.679 natural hazards or actually climate change. 00:51:19.679 --> 00:51:22.267 So we have confronted that problem right now, 00:51:22.267 --> 00:51:26.413 where five years on, the city has tried to assimilate 00:51:26.413 --> 00:51:31.099 some new thinking around retreat areas because of climate change 00:51:31.099 --> 00:51:34.639 and sea level rise into their new planning. 00:51:34.639 --> 00:51:37.228 It's just too hard for the community to cope with. 00:51:37.228 --> 00:51:41.288 They're coping with too much as it is of other stories and other conversations -- 00:51:41.288 --> 00:51:44.279 backwards-looking, try to repair their homes and their communities. 00:51:44.279 --> 00:51:47.706 They just don't have the brain space to say -- 00:51:47.706 --> 00:51:53.526 to start a whole conversation right now about these other strategic issues. 00:51:53.526 --> 00:51:56.756 If we'd been having those conversations over time, 00:51:56.756 --> 00:52:00.065 that would be least difficult post-disaster. 00:52:01.186 --> 00:52:03.546 Something to learn from. 00:52:03.546 --> 00:52:07.109 Are your communities ready to actually have actual long-term conversations? 00:52:07.554 --> 00:52:10.926 So what didn't -- what many people didn't realize is 00:52:10.926 --> 00:52:12.010 an earthquake isn't an earthquake. 00:52:12.010 --> 00:52:16.497 It's a multiple series of events and multiple event expectations. 00:52:16.497 --> 00:52:19.676 The science community knows that, but the people who live in communities 00:52:19.676 --> 00:52:22.506 don't realize that, when you've had an earthquake, watch out, 00:52:22.506 --> 00:52:24.912 there's probably some more coming. 00:52:24.912 --> 00:52:28.741 and the seismologists and the engineers were telling us this, but we 00:52:28.741 --> 00:52:32.048 weren't listening. We said, oh, phew, we've survived the earthquake. 00:52:32.719 --> 00:52:36.916 So we didn't realize, and so I'll explain why that's so important in a minute. 00:52:36.916 --> 00:52:39.527 We didn't understand decay curve expectations 00:52:39.527 --> 00:52:43.092 that there will be some big ones, but over time, it will diminish. 00:52:43.092 --> 00:52:46.322 Because as we had repeatedly large earthquakes, we thought, this is our 00:52:46.322 --> 00:52:50.250 new future is that we are -- we're going to be having these now for 10 years. 00:52:50.250 --> 00:52:54.175 We just simply -- most people didn't understand. 00:52:54.175 --> 00:52:59.066 And if we had understood more about our underlying environment, then we 00:52:59.066 --> 00:53:02.064 would have been more accepting of what we were going through. 00:53:02.064 --> 00:53:04.158 We didn't understand it triggers natural hazard 00:53:04.158 --> 00:53:07.672 or multi-hazard events -- so rock roll, rock fall. 00:53:07.672 --> 00:53:09.492 We didn't understand that codes only were there 00:53:09.492 --> 00:53:13.081 to save lives not economic value of buildings. 00:53:13.081 --> 00:53:16.102 And, in the case -- many of us looked to our insurers 00:53:16.102 --> 00:53:18.539 to think that they were going to be our rebuilders. 00:53:18.539 --> 00:53:21.052 So a lot of dilemma there because insurers are insurers. 00:53:21.052 --> 00:53:23.672 They're not rebuilders. 00:53:24.250 --> 00:53:26.165 So why does -- why is this a problem? 00:53:26.165 --> 00:53:28.600 This slide here, the psychosocial recovery. 00:53:28.600 --> 00:53:31.751 This curve -- underlining -- that I can show you the growth curve 00:53:31.751 --> 00:53:35.539 that we talked about before. The curve on top is psychosocial 00:53:35.539 --> 00:53:37.998 recovery curve that comes from the Red Cross framework. 00:53:38.731 --> 00:53:41.959 If you take off from the dotted line to the right, that's the grief curve -- 00:53:41.959 --> 00:53:44.960 a normal grief cycle. Everybody goes through 00:53:44.960 --> 00:53:49.646 grief differently, but that's kind of the theory of grief. 00:53:49.646 --> 00:53:52.731 But when you've survived a big shock event, 00:53:52.731 --> 00:53:54.282 then you have this bit on the left-hand side. 00:53:54.282 --> 00:53:59.026 So the first bit is, yay, I've survived. The next bit is survival guilt. 00:53:59.026 --> 00:54:00.960 And then you go through the grief curve. 00:54:00.960 --> 00:54:03.116 Every single person who lives in that community, 00:54:03.116 --> 00:54:05.792 that curve is in a different place. 00:54:05.792 --> 00:54:08.141 So although we're way out on the growth curve now 00:54:08.141 --> 00:54:12.251 for rebuild of physical assets, many people are very, very low 00:54:12.251 --> 00:54:16.065 in the psychosocial recovery curve because they're still deeply impacted. 00:54:16.065 --> 00:54:20.271 Their home is not fixed, or they've still got health issues or whatever. 00:54:20.271 --> 00:54:22.670 And what I really want to say that this isn't about earthquakes. 00:54:22.670 --> 00:54:26.604 For you guys, what you know, you need to be able to explain this to people. 00:54:26.604 --> 00:54:30.324 This is about any sort of shock or stress. 00:54:30.324 --> 00:54:32.371 So although you're earthquake experts, 00:54:32.371 --> 00:54:35.378 you're actually experts in dealing with post-shock. 00:54:35.378 --> 00:54:37.167 So climate change is coming. 00:54:37.167 --> 00:54:40.427 And people don't understand the shock that that is likely to create. 00:54:40.427 --> 00:54:44.782 And you are going to be the new experts. So shock magnifies weaknesses 00:54:44.782 --> 00:54:48.455 and opportunities and breaks down those institutional barriers. 00:54:48.455 --> 00:54:51.520 So you are going to have to help other communities of people 00:54:51.520 --> 00:54:56.144 understand these -- that your skill sets are going to be transferable away from 00:54:56.144 --> 00:54:58.942 earthquake recovery to shock recovery -- 00:54:58.942 --> 00:55:02.391 manmade shock or natural hazard shocks. 00:55:02.391 --> 00:55:08.387 So be aware -- I'm not sure about in this particular community, 00:55:08.387 --> 00:55:12.424 but we certainly don't have a whole pool like you of experts in some of these 00:55:12.424 --> 00:55:16.563 forthcoming transformational changes coming through climate change. 00:55:16.563 --> 00:55:19.533 We will be looking to those of you who are used to dealing with 00:55:19.533 --> 00:55:22.529 large shocks and transferring a whole lot of your knowledge 00:55:22.529 --> 00:55:26.364 and understanding into that new event. 00:55:27.269 --> 00:55:29.311 No pressure, guys. [laughter] 00:55:29.311 --> 00:55:31.738 So the next 25 years are not going to be like the last 25 years. 00:55:31.738 --> 00:55:35.145 So I challenge you to look forwards. It is not going to be the same. 00:55:35.145 --> 00:55:38.179 I put that slide up originally about five presentations ago, and it said, 00:55:38.179 --> 00:55:43.077 the next 50 years are not going to be the same as the next -- as the last 50 years. 00:55:43.077 --> 00:55:46.288 And one of the top guns of Greenpeace came and saw me afterwards and said, 00:55:46.288 --> 00:55:48.226 you're not -- you're not -- you're not right, Margot. 00:55:48.226 --> 00:55:53.586 It's the next 25 years is not going to be the same. So I've changed it. 00:55:53.586 --> 00:55:55.882 And he's dead right. 00:55:55.882 --> 00:56:00.038 So if you are still caught in thinking what's happening and basing everything 00:56:00.038 --> 00:56:03.786 on lessons learned from before, I ask you to take your blinkers off. 00:56:03.786 --> 00:56:06.811 Take your rear-view mirrors off. Please just look forwards. 00:56:06.811 --> 00:56:09.451 Because there's a whole lot of transformational change opportunities 00:56:09.451 --> 00:56:14.857 coming, especially in technological change, seismic testing, et cetera, 00:56:14.857 --> 00:56:19.003 which should possibly reset completely some of the thinking 00:56:19.003 --> 00:56:22.371 that you should be putting into your recovery framework. 00:56:22.371 --> 00:56:23.951 I've taken out a slide there. 00:56:23.951 --> 00:56:29.461 There was a article in the New York Times when I was there seeking a new -- 00:56:29.461 --> 00:56:32.195 it was a vacancy for the New York Economic Development Corporation. 00:56:32.349 --> 00:56:38.175 A person or persons to come and create -- design the new system 00:56:38.175 --> 00:56:41.948 for keeping the water out of lower Manhattan. 00:56:41.948 --> 00:56:44.770 So the words in it precluded the opportunity 00:56:44.770 --> 00:56:48.308 of thinking we don't have to keep the water out. 00:56:48.308 --> 00:56:53.101 If we don't want to keep the water out, is there other opportunities? 00:56:53.101 --> 00:56:55.617 Because what is the future of some of your cities? 00:56:55.617 --> 00:56:58.317 And you are going to have to transfer your knowledge to some of these. 00:56:58.317 --> 00:57:02.136 The photo on the right is a true photo. The one on the left, of course, isn't. 00:57:02.136 --> 00:57:05.052 And I scared them by putting that up on the picture. [laughter] 00:57:05.052 --> 00:57:07.687 So is it our problem or is it not our problem? 00:57:07.687 --> 00:57:09.686 Is this a subway, or a subsea? 00:57:09.686 --> 00:57:12.403 Do you want to try and keep the water out of your cities? 00:57:12.547 --> 00:57:14.497 I'm just using water as an example. 00:57:14.497 --> 00:57:16.598 But in your case, in California, what are you going to do about 00:57:16.598 --> 00:57:20.366 this drought business? Because you've got 39 million 00:57:20.366 --> 00:57:24.700 people here now, but you've got 60 million people here by 2050. 00:57:24.700 --> 00:57:27.738 I understand that, in the next two to three years, it's going 00:57:27.738 --> 00:57:30.981 to go to court about who gets priority for the water. 00:57:30.981 --> 00:57:34.583 Is it going to be your cities, or is it going to be your agriculture? 00:57:34.583 --> 00:57:36.142 Now, play that debate through. 00:57:36.142 --> 00:57:40.868 If the cities win, and the farms don't, where's your food coming from? 00:57:40.868 --> 00:57:43.245 If the other side wins, and the farms get it, 00:57:43.245 --> 00:57:46.374 and the cities don't, there's going to be mass migration. 00:57:46.705 --> 00:57:48.158 So that court case, at the moment, 00:57:48.158 --> 00:57:50.909 is quite an interesting future that you've got. 00:57:50.909 --> 00:57:56.017 And I can't see that communities like yours starting to really dwell on, 00:57:56.017 --> 00:57:58.946 in this real? Do they really accept some of these futures? 00:57:59.327 --> 00:58:01.989 And should your skills that you look to with earthquake recovery 00:58:01.989 --> 00:58:04.309 start to think about some of these issues? 00:58:04.309 --> 00:58:07.940 Because there aren't communities like you thinking like this. 00:58:08.402 --> 00:58:10.963 So I challenge you to think forwards. 00:58:11.529 --> 00:58:13.142 So what are the opportunities for you? 00:58:13.142 --> 00:58:17.235 I've said those. I'm not going to dwell on it because we're running out of time. 00:58:17.235 --> 00:58:18.855 And I'll just skip through these. 00:58:18.855 --> 00:58:19.999 Are you ready to ride the wave? 00:58:19.999 --> 00:58:23.092 Now I just want to show you, this is a block on Christchurch now. 00:58:23.092 --> 00:58:26.576 And this is the way we see it in the future. 00:58:26.576 --> 00:58:30.133 So that's now. It is being planned like this. 00:58:30.133 --> 00:58:32.347 These are the new cities of the future. 00:58:32.820 --> 00:58:35.115 So you need to be part of these conversations. 00:58:35.115 --> 00:58:39.239 You need to attach to it. It's not just about build back old. 00:58:39.239 --> 00:58:43.254 So are you aware of the transformational changes coming that you need to 00:58:43.254 --> 00:58:47.625 assimilate into your thinking to help rebuild cities and communities? 00:58:47.625 --> 00:58:49.830 So on that note, I'm not going to go through the rest of the slides. 00:58:49.830 --> 00:58:52.895 I'm conscious I've used way more than my time. 00:58:52.895 --> 00:58:55.515 I have got some other opportunity slides here I can talk to you about, 00:58:55.515 --> 00:58:59.829 but I'd rather open it to the floor knowing I've done a lot of talking. 00:58:59.829 --> 00:59:03.140 Is there anything particular you'd like to ask me that I can try and answer now 00:59:03.140 --> 00:59:08.252 or that I can then start a dialogue with you over the next ensuing few months? 00:59:10.120 --> 00:59:13.430 - Yeah, so we are -- knowing to feel free to leave if you have to, 00:59:13.430 --> 00:59:18.333 but also going to go to lunch afterwards if you want to follow up. 00:59:18.333 --> 00:59:23.962 - Thanks. It was a really informative and inspiring talk. 00:59:23.962 --> 00:59:28.762 Probably like others in the audience here, I've been thinking about what 00:59:28.762 --> 00:59:35.064 lessons can be learnt and applied to California or other parts of the world. 00:59:35.064 --> 00:59:40.278 And, as I think your talk has emphasized, the actions that 00:59:40.278 --> 00:59:44.935 you've instituted in New Zealand are very -- in many ways, 00:59:44.935 --> 00:59:47.340 very particular to the culture of New Zealand. 00:59:47.340 --> 00:59:53.767 And so, in different cultural settings, like California or like recovering 00:59:53.767 --> 00:59:58.522 from the Tohoku earthquake in Japan or the L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, 00:59:58.522 --> 01:00:02.921 different strategies and actions are needed. 01:00:02.921 --> 01:00:04.375 Do you have a comment on that? 01:00:04.375 --> 01:00:06.890 - Yes. That goes back to the question raised earlier. 01:00:06.890 --> 01:00:09.069 I totally understand that every community is 01:00:09.069 --> 01:00:11.798 different from the next, even in one county. 01:00:11.798 --> 01:00:15.114 So this question about, when do you start those conversations 01:00:15.114 --> 01:00:18.060 with communities about their future, you do it now. 01:00:18.060 --> 01:00:21.480 Because it's not just about their futures. You need to understand the regulatory 01:00:21.480 --> 01:00:26.483 environments, the policy environments, how they see their own futures. 01:00:26.483 --> 01:00:29.697 But also what their federal governments are expecting. 01:00:29.697 --> 01:00:32.508 So what we can show you is some of the principles -- 01:00:32.508 --> 01:00:35.438 some of the things which have worked quite well and not well for us. 01:00:35.438 --> 01:00:40.820 But at a framework level, that learning can be transferred, but I do -- I cannot 01:00:40.820 --> 01:00:48.000 reiterate enough the power of pre-existing relationships across sectors. 01:00:48.000 --> 01:00:50.481 So not just between the engineering communities. 01:00:50.481 --> 01:00:52.859 The engineers with the policymakers. 01:00:52.859 --> 01:00:55.948 The -- I'm talking about you as a community of engineers, I suspect, 01:00:55.948 --> 01:01:03.644 but I'm not sure, but also business leaders are very powerful people 01:01:03.644 --> 01:01:07.693 in their communities, but they're not often in the public institutions. 01:01:07.693 --> 01:01:13.511 You really need to have relationships not just across public institutions. 01:01:13.511 --> 01:01:15.993 Now, that's different from having workshops with them. 01:01:15.993 --> 01:01:19.839 That's the -- that's the beer after the meeting or the glass of wine, 01:01:19.839 --> 01:01:23.028 to be honest, when -- after you've had a formal meeting is to 01:01:23.028 --> 01:01:26.289 sit down and say, well, now, what do you really think? 01:01:26.289 --> 01:01:28.157 And actually, would that really work? 01:01:28.157 --> 01:01:29.833 Because you don't want them going away saying, yeah, right, 01:01:29.833 --> 01:01:33.640 that's great for California, but that's not going to work in our environment. 01:01:33.713 --> 01:01:38.349 You want them to tell you that rather than just let you plow ahead 01:01:38.349 --> 01:01:41.702 thinking this is going to work. The best way to have that 01:01:41.702 --> 01:01:47.017 trusted conversation afterwards is to have that trust beforehand. 01:01:47.622 --> 01:01:49.641 Does that answer your question? 01:01:49.641 --> 01:01:51.074 Hope so. 01:01:51.074 --> 01:01:54.493 - All right. So we'll finish up, and please come up to Margot in the next five 01:01:54.493 --> 01:01:58.865 minutes -- Margot if you've got more questions, and then we'll go for lunch. 01:01:58.865 --> 01:02:01.575 I'm going to make a plug for the [inaudible] scenario that we're building 01:02:01.575 --> 01:02:04.537 right now because that's what we're trying to get at is to have 01:02:04.537 --> 01:02:08.852 these collaborate -- build the scenario collaboratively with partners and 01:02:08.852 --> 01:02:12.227 stakeholders and try and have these conversations ahead of time 01:02:12.227 --> 01:02:15.220 and to address your list of issues that you showed. 01:02:15.658 --> 01:02:17.440 Yeah. 01:02:17.927 --> 01:02:18.821 So thanks, everyone. 01:02:18.821 --> 01:02:20.784 - Thank you for your time. 01:02:20.784 --> 01:02:22.587 [ Applause ] 01:02:22.587 --> 01:02:25.147 - Please come and talk. I'm here for a bit longer. 01:02:27.084 --> 01:02:32.243 [ Silence ]