Special Seminar: PAGER 2.0: Next Generation Forecasts to Inform Rapid Global Earthquake Response
Kishor Jaiswal
USGS
- Date & Time
- Location
- In-person and Online via Microsoft Teams
- Summary
Since 2010, the USGS PAGER system has delivered 24/7 rapid global assessments of earthquake impacts for over 10,000 events, enabling responders to quickly gauge the potential scale of disasters. However, catastrophic earthquakes increasingly demand more accurate, spatially detailed, and operationally actionable information than current products provide. To meet this need, USGS is now developing PAGER 2.0, a next‑generation framework capable of producing high‑resolution forecasts of shaking intensity, structural damage, and social and economic losses at local administrative scales worldwide. This effort is partly funded through the U.S. State Department's International Disaster Response (IDR). Establishing such capability requires detailed information on global building inventory and rapid characterization of their vulnerability to assess impacts from strong ground shaking. We welcome the partnership with academia and industry to improve the baseline data and model development efforts. We are also actively collaborating with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) to integrate the global exposure and vulnerability data, alongside continued testing of USGS’s in‑house damage and loss metrics using the ShakeMap atlas and AtlasCat datasets. Together, these advances aim to support faster, better targeted, and more effective global earthquake response.