Towards Next-generation Catastrophe Modelling
Video not found
Please check back later. Videos are usually posted within 24 hours.
Nikola Blagojevic
Stanford University
- Date & Time
- Location
- Hybrid In Person and Online-only seminar via Microsoft Teams
- Host
- Alan Poulos
- Summary
Existing catastrophe modeling software combines hazard, exposure, and vulnerability models to assess future disaster losses. While this approach is effective for evaluating direct losses, such as repair costs and casualties, it faces challenges when assessing indirect losses, such as those caused by building and infrastructure downtime or supply chain disruptions.
The primary limitation lies in treating assets as isolated elements of the built environment. However, research developments over the past decade have led to the creation of regional recovery models that account for functional interdependencies among assets. These models enable more accurate estimates of functional downtime by incorporating factors such as regional resource constraints, access to repairs, and infrastructure interdependencies.
This talk introduces the iRe-CoDeS framework, which models the built environment as a network of interacting components across various infrastructure systems and building stocks. It captures these interactions by simulating the flow of resources during post-disaster recovery. This framework advances existing catastrophe modeling software, paving the way for next-generation tools that enhance the assessment of indirect losses and downtime. Applications of the framework to simulate post-earthquake recovery of San Francisco and support recovery management after the recent LA wildfires will be demonstrated.