Are there geomagnetic precursors to earthquakes? - Two statistical studies from California (In-person presentation)
Karl Kappler
QuakeFinder
- Date & Time
- Location
- In-person presentation (online via Microsoft Teams)
- Host
- Michael Blanpied
- Summary
Short term (days to hours) earthquake forecasting is a hard scientific problem. Monitoring electromagnetic (EM) rather than mechanical/seismic activity may provide a breakthrough in this research. Anecdotal EM studies of single earthquakes lack of reproducible observations, and non-uniqueness of the anomalies when data are examined over the long term. However, in the early 2000s, a private humanitarian effort (QuakeFinder) was established to address the deficiency of data and to build out a dataset appropriate for statistical analysis. Three-component induction magnetometers were deployed at more than 100 stations running along the San Andreas and other major faults in California. More than 300,000 station days have been acquired with many stations nearby to significant earthquakes. The goal was to determine if there is a natural signal prior to moderate to large (>M4) earthquakes within range ( < 40 km) of the magnetometer instruments. Two major peer-reviewed statistical analyses (QuakeFinder and Google GAS) were done in 2019 and 2022. Both studies indicated rejection at the 99.7% confidence level of the null hypothesis (that there is not an electromagnetic precursor to earthquakes) at a baseline when crude noise compensation measures are applied. These statistical studies form the basis of further investigations, perhaps by USGS, to move the technology towards an operational, short term (days not seconds), earthquake warning system.
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