Pathways to effective earthquake scenarios in uncertain contexts
Yolanda Lin
University of New Mexico
- Date & Time
- Location
- Online-only seminar via Microsoft Teams
- Summary
Current policies, risk management practices, emergency preparedness, and scientific research interests are often shaped by the effects of past events. However, our past experiences and current methodologies may not prepare us for low probability events that have the potential to affect our natural, built, and social environments. This is especially true in regions of low- to moderate- seismicity, where uncertainties regarding the long-term seismicity of these regions, unknown faults, and limited historical records complicate the selection of an earthquake scenario, which are often needed for purposes of emergency management and planning. What are some ways that we can identify effective earthquake scenarios in these uncertain contexts? In this talk, I will highlight how we can leverage downward counterfactual thinking in these data-sparse contexts. Additionally, I will present a new consequence-driven approach to earthquake scenario selection that can be used to integrate stakeholder interests directly within the scenario selection process. Finally, I will discuss how we can use scenarios in order to quantify and celebrate mitigation and resilience efforts that can uncover "invisible benefits" and help move us beyond a focus on short-term loss avoidance.
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