Major Quake Likely to Strike San Francisco Bay Region Between 2003 and 2032
On the basis of research conducted since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists conclude that there is a 62% probability of at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing widespread damage, striking the San Francisco Bay region before 2032. Major quakes may occur in any part of this rapidly growing region. This emphasizes the urgency for all communities in the Bay region to continue preparing for earthquakes.
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Fact
Sheet (printer
friendly PDF version)
Is a Powerful Quake Likely to Strike in the Next 30 Years? -
Full
Technical Report
Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2003-2032. -
Summary
of Findings(printer friendly
PDF version)
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Earthquake
Planning Scenario ShakeMaps
Maps displaying estimated intensities and ground motions for "Earthquake Scenarios" - events on faults that have ruptured in the past or have a likelihood of rupturing in the future. Files of ground motion ready for input in FEMA's publicly available loss estimation software HAZUS can be found under the "Download" tab. -
Estimated Earthquake Losses for the Bay Region
The USGS, the California Office of Emergency Services, the California Geological Survey, and the Association of Bay Area Governments jointly conducted a loss estimation study focused on the ten most likely damaging earthquakes forecast for the Bay Region by the Working Group. -
Bay
Area Earthquake Probabilities Webcast
USGS Scientist, Dr. David Schwartz, discussed the new probability study at UC Berkeley on Tuesday April 22, 2003 [1hr, 10 min RealPlayer required]. -
Probability
Study Graphics for Media Use
This page gives you access to the original graphics files used to produce the USGS Report on the new San Francisco Bay Region Earthquake Probability Study.
Probabilities (shown in boxes) of one or more major (M>=6.7) earthquakes on faults in the San Francisco Bay Region during the coming 30 years. The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032. Knowing this will help people make informed decisions as they continue to prepare for future quakes.
