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Table 1. Probabilities of one or more M>=6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR, 2003-2032.
Source Fault Probability 95% Confidence Bounds
SFBR region 0.62 [0.37 to 0.87]
San Andreas 0.21 [0.02 to 0.45]
Hayward/Rodgers Crk 0.27 [0.10 to 0.58]
Calaveras 0.11 [0.03 to 0.27]
Concord/Green Valley 0.04 [0.00 to 0.12]
San Gregorio 0.10 [0.02 to 0.29]
Greenville 0.03 [0.00 to 0.08]
Mt. Diablo thrust 0.03 [0.00 to 0.08]
Background 0.14 [0.07 to 0.37]