PAGER - M 5.3 - SICHUAN-YUNNAN-GUIZHOU REGION, CHINA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: YELLOW

Download Alert PDFWhat's this?Friday, September 7th, 2012 at 04:16:30 UTC (12:16:30 local)Location: 27.6° N, 104° EDepth: 10kmEvent Id: USC000CHPPAlert Version: 5Created: 1 week, 2 days after earthquake.
Global Location

Scientific Analysis

This earthquake is the second of two events of similar magnitude and location in a heavily populated region. PAGER treats each earthquake a stand-alone event and results do not take losses from fore-, main-, or aftershocks into account.

Alert Information

Yellow alert level for economic losses. Some damage is possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of China. Past events with this alert level have required a local or regional level response. Green alert level for shaking-related fatalities. There is a low likelihood of casualties.
Estimated FatalitiesFatality Alert Level: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)
 
65
1 to 9 (YELLOW)
 
30
10 to 99 (YELLOW)
 
4
100 to 999 (ORANGE)0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)0
100 thousand + (RED)0
Estimated Economic LossesEconomic Alert Level: YELLOW
ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: YELLOW
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)
 
5
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)
 
19
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)
 
35
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)
 
29
1 to 10 billion (RED)
 
11
10 to 100 billion (RED)
 
2
100 billion + (RED)0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli IntensityIII-IIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXX
Est. Population Exposure---*30,855k*4,204k908k143k0000
Perceived ShakingNot FeltWeakLightModerateStrongVery StrongSevereViolentExtreme
Potential Structure DamageResistantnonenonenoneV. LightLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. Heavy
VulnerablenonenonenoneLightModerateModerate/HeavyHeavyV. HeavyV. Heavy
*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area
Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan
Population Exposure Map

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and ductile reinforced concrete frame construction.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)Dist (km)MagMax MMI (#)Shaking Deaths
1996-02-043785.5VII (12k)0
2004-08-10345.3VII (32k)4
1974-05-10646.8IX (23k)1541

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.
MMICityPopulation
IVZhaotong109k
IIIWeining57k
IIIXunchang65k
IIIBijie78k
IIIYibin242k
IIXichang127k
IITaiping3k
IIChangsha2k
IIAnshun352k
IIYongchuan94k

(k = x1,000)

Historical Events Map
Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#Date/TimeMagLat, Lon, DepthCountryMax MMI (Exposed)DeathsSecondary Effects
ShakingTotal
11974-05-10
19:25 UTC
6.828.18° N, 103.99° E
10km
CNIX (23 k)15411541
21975-01-15
11:34 UTC
629.41° N, 101.74° E
34km
CNVIII (157)00
31976-11-06
18:04 UTC
6.327.63° N, 101° E
9km
CNIX (101)3333
41976-12-13
06:36 UTC
5.927.36° N, 101° E
8km
CNVIII (2 k)22
51985-03-29
11:15 UTC
4.929.35° N, 104.95° E
35km
CNVI (539 k)22
61985-04-18
05:52 UTC
5.725.92° N, 102.86° E
4km
CNVIII (6 k)2222
71986-08-06
19:55 UTC
5.329.28° N, 100.75° E
11km
CNVII (181)22
81986-10-06
23:28 UTC
5.425.37° N, 102.41° E
21km
CNVII (10 k)00
91989-11-20
03:18 UTC
4.529.94° N, 106.83° E
33km
CNIII (2,529 k)77
101989-11-20
03:21 UTC
5.229.88° N, 106.83° E
25km
CNVII (493)44
111990-08-18
13:38 UTC
5.727.01° N, 101.22° E
15km
CNVIII (855)00
121992-12-18
11:21 UTC
526.33° N, 100.75° E
22km
CNVI (11 k)11
131993-01-31
19:33 UTC
4.725.83° N, 101.42° E
25km
CNVI (108 k)22
141995-10-23
22:46 UTC
6.225.98° N, 102.19° E
13km
CNIX (290)5353
151996-02-03
11:14 UTC
6.627.3° N, 100.29° E
4km
CNIX (224 k)309309
161996-02-04
16:58 UTC
5.526.99° N, 100.28° E
17km
CNVII (12 k)00
171996-02-06
07:36 UTC
5.427.14° N, 100.34° E
16km
CNVII (2 k)00
181996-02-07
21:31 UTC
4.727.46° N, 106.64° E
10km
CNV (186 k)00
191996-09-24
19:24 UTC
5.527.21° N, 100.33° E
8km
CNVII (4 k)11
201997-08-13
08:13 UTC
4.829.42° N, 105.56° E
35km
CNIV (337 k)00
211998-10-26
20:01 UTC
4.727.19° N, 100.92° E
25km
CNVI (88 k)00
221998-11-19
11:38 UTC
5.627.26° N, 100.96° E
5km
CNVII (50 k)56landslide
231999-01-02
17:55 UTC
4.527.2° N, 100.99° E
15km
CNVI (3 k)00
241999-08-17
10:41 UTC
4.829.35° N, 105.51° E
35km
CNIV (257 k)00
251999-11-24
16:40 UTC
524.59° N, 102.85° E
15km
CNVII (360)11
262000-01-14
22:09 UTC
5.525.55° N, 101.12° E
14km
CNVII (37 k)77
272000-01-14
23:37 UTC
5.925.56° N, 101.07° E
25km
CNVII (432 k)77
282000-01-26
20:55 UTC
4.924.15° N, 103.65° E
35km
CNVI (863)00
292000-08-21
13:25 UTC
4.925.73° N, 102.24° E
5km
CNVI (60 k)11
302001-02-23
00:09 UTC
5.629.46° N, 101.08° E
7km
CNVIII (14)33
312001-05-23
21:10 UTC
5.427.62° N, 100.9° E
2km
CNVII (1 k)22
322001-06-23
02:48 UTC
4.829.32° N, 105.49° E
35km
CNIV (277 k)00
332001-07-14
18:36 UTC
4.724.38° N, 102.63° E
30km
CNVI (286 k)00
342001-10-27
05:35 UTC
5.526.29° N, 100.59° E
6km
CNVII (64 k)11
352002-04-30
04:56 UTC
4.829.46° N, 105.65° E
33km
CNIV (580 k)00
362003-07-21
15:16 UTC
5.925.95° N, 101.26° E
35km
CNVII (110 k)1616landslide
372003-10-16
12:28 UTC
5.625.88° N, 101.26° E
35km
CNVII (13 k)33
382003-11-14
18:49 UTC
5.627.46° N, 103.97° E
35km
CNVII (12 k)44
392004-08-10
10:26 UTC
5.327.32° N, 103.92° E
13km
CNVII (32 k)44
402005-08-05
14:14 UTC
5.226.57° N, 103.03° E
47km
CNV (1,064 k)00
412006-07-22
01:10 UTC
4.928° N, 104.14° E
55km
CNV (292 k)022landslide
422006-08-25
05:51 UTC
528.01° N, 104.15° E
21km
CNVII (159)11landslide

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.