PAGER - M 5.2 - IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREEN

Download Alert PDF What's this?Thursday, May 3rd, 2012 at 10:09:35 UTC (14:39:35 local)Location: 32.8° N, 47.7° EDepth: 9kmEvent Id: USC0009HZ9Alert Version: 5Created: 1 week, 1 day after earthquake.

Alert Information

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	99
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	1
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	99
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	1
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	0
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 billion (RED)	0
10 to 100 billion (RED)	0
100 billion + (RED)	0

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	9,934k*	171k	4k	0	0	0	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1983-05-28	85	5.5	VII (2k)	0
2002-06-22	331	6.5	VIII (4k)	227
1977-04-06	292	6	VIII (31k)	366

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
IV	Dehloran	46k
IV	Abdanan	19k
III	Kuhdasht	100k
III	Shush	52k
III	`Ali al Gharbi	20k
III	Al `Amarah	323k
III	Khorramabad	330k
II	Ahvaz	841k
II	Kahriz	767k
II	Kermanshah	621k
II	Arak	504k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1975-01-14 22:07 UTC	5.1	35.4° N, 44.81° E 15km	IQ	V (59 k)	0	0
2	1975-09-01 23:15 UTC	4.9	33.34° N, 49.11° E 10km	IR	VI (682)	0	0
3	1977-04-06 13:36 UTC	6	31.96° N, 50.65° E 11km	IR	VIII (31 k)	366	366
4	1977-06-05 04:45 UTC	6.1	32.61° N, 48.08° E 10km	IR	VIII (3 k)	0	0
5	1978-12-14 07:05 UTC	6.1	32.13° N, 49.64° E 18km	IR	VIII (7 k)	76	76
6	1979-04-18 14:42 UTC	5.1	33.4° N, 46.41° E 14km	IR	V (16 k)	0	0
7	1980-02-21 13:59 UTC	4.7	32.1° N, 47.33° E 33km	IQ	IV (3 k)	0	0
8	1980-10-19 17:24 UTC	5.8	32.7° N, 48.57° E 18km	IR	VIII (156)	0	0
9	1980-12-19 01:16 UTC	6.2	34.48° N, 50.65° E 13km	IR	IX (609)	26	26
10	1980-12-22 12:51 UTC	5.7	34.43° N, 50.63° E 18km	IR	VIII (28)	3	3
11	1982-07-19 07:19 UTC	4.9	33.5° N, 46.07° E 25km	IR	IV (31 k)	0	0
12	1983-05-28 11:35 UTC	5.5	32.59° N, 48.58° E 20km	IR	VII (2 k)	0	0
13	1983-11-17 09:10 UTC	4.7	31.56° N, 47.36° E 15km	IQ	V (46 k)	0	0
14	1984-03-26 12:00 UTC	4.7	34.62° N, 45.41° E 33km	IQ	IV (10 k)	0	0
15	1985-02-26 20:36 UTC	4.7	32.58° N, 47.28° E 20km	IR	IV (31 k)	0	0
16	1986-03-15 07:59 UTC	4.8	32.39° N, 46.98° E 15km	IQ	V (229)	0	0
17	1987-05-29 06:27 UTC	5.3	34.06° N, 48.29° E 25km	IR	VII (116 k)	2	2
18	1988-01-26 09:34 UTC	5.5	32.76° N, 47.11° E 25km	IR	V (21 k)	0	0
19	1988-01-26 14:36 UTC	4.9	32.74° N, 47.09° E 15km	IR	V (1 k)	0	0
20	1988-01-27 07:44 UTC	5	32.8° N, 47.02° E 20km	IR	V (363)	0	0
21	1988-01-27 13:05 UTC	4.9	32.7° N, 47.05° E 15km	IR	V (1 k)	0	0
22	1988-01-28 01:34 UTC	4.7	32.76° N, 47.11° E 15km	IR	V (477)	0	0
23	1988-01-28 05:03 UTC	4.7	32.62° N, 47.03° E 20km	IR	IV (27 k)	0	0
24	1988-03-30 02:12 UTC	5.9	30.85° N, 50.18° E 28km	IR	VIII (5)	0	0	landslide
25	1990-05-24 15:12 UTC	4.9	32.79° N, 46.78° E 15km	IR	V (1 k)	0	0
26	1991-11-04 01:50 UTC	5.6	30.69° N, 50.25° E 18km	IR	VIII (295)	0	0
27	1991-11-10 15:19 UTC	5	30.59° N, 50.27° E 25km	IR	VII (101 k)	0	0
28	1992-03-04 11:57 UTC	5.1	31.61° N, 50.76° E 25km	IR	VII (32 k)	6	6	landslide
29	1992-12-11 09:25 UTC	4.8	32.87° N, 46.43° E 15km	IQ	V (734)	0	0
30	1994-07-31 05:15 UTC	5.5	32.68° N, 48.42° E 17km	IR	VII (1 k)	0	0
31	1994-10-11 20:31 UTC	4.7	33.55° N, 45.78° E 15km	IQ	V (2 k)	0	0
32	1998-01-19 22:08 UTC	4.8	33.82° N, 46.02° E 15km	IR	V (2 k)	0	0
33	2001-03-23 05:24 UTC	5.4	32.98° N, 46.64° E 12km	IR	V (12 k)	0	0
34	2001-11-29 15:49 UTC	4.7	33.63° N, 45.98° E 15km	IR	V (2 k)	0	0
35	2002-02-20 10:12 UTC	4.9	33.7° N, 45.73° E 25km	IR	IV (27 k)	0	0
36	2002-04-24 19:48 UTC	5.4	34.6° N, 47.4° E 25km	IR	VII (28 k)	2	2
37	2002-06-18 03:19 UTC	5.3	33.34° N, 45.95° E 29km	IQ	V (80)	0	0
38	2002-06-22 02:58 UTC	6.5	35.59° N, 49.02° E 11km	IR	VIII (4 k)	227	227
39	2002-06-26 18:18 UTC	4.6	35.55° N, 48.87° E 8km	IR	VI (5 k)	0	0
40	2002-09-04 09:22 UTC	4.7	33.94° N, 46.06° E 33km	IR	IV (102)	0	0
41	2002-09-25 22:28 UTC	5.6	32.08° N, 49.33° E 24km	IR	VII (2)	0	0
42	2002-12-24 17:03 UTC	5.2	34.54° N, 47.48° E 30km	IR	V (74 k)	0	0
43	2003-06-24 13:01 UTC	4.6	33.02° N, 49.46° E 15km	IR	VI (77)	1	1	landslide
44	2003-12-11 16:28 UTC	5	32.03° N, 49.26° E 25km	IR	VII (59 k)	0	0
45	2004-02-12 09:20 UTC	4.8	33.53° N, 45.84° E 17km	IQ	V (1 k)	0	0
46	2004-10-16 10:04 UTC	4.8	33.43° N, 45.92° E 20km	IQ	IV (22 k)	0	0
47	2004-11-22 04:01 UTC	5	33.21° N, 47.95° E 25km	IR	VI (62 k)	0	0	landslide
48	2005-01-25 00:04 UTC	4.8	33.92° N, 45.86° E 34km	IR	IV (1 k)	0	0
49	2005-01-25 08:07 UTC	4.8	33.29° N, 45.88° E 15km	IQ	V (1 k)	0	0
50	2005-01-25 08:21 UTC	4.9	33.37° N, 45.87° E 24km	IQ	IV (18 k)	0	0
51	2005-01-25 11:39 UTC	4.9	33.37° N, 45.88° E 41km	IQ	V (56 k)	0	0
52	2005-05-03 07:21 UTC	4.9	33.66° N, 48.67° E 27km	IR	VI (36 k)	4	4
53	2006-03-31 01:17 UTC	6.1	33.51° N, 48.76° E 7km	IR	IX (10 k)	70	70
54	2007-03-06 22:32 UTC	4.7	33.49° N, 48.93° E 16km	IR	VI (4 k)	0	0
55	2007-06-18 14:29 UTC	5.5	34.44° N, 50.83° E 5km	IR	VII (1 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
IV	Dehloran	46k
IV	Abdanan	19k
III	Kuhdasht	100k
III	Shush	52k
III	`Ali al Gharbi	20k
III	Al `Amarah	323k
III	Khorramabad	330k
III	Susangerd	41k
III	Al Majarr al Kabir	36k
III	Aleshtar	28k
III	Al Hayy	78k
III	Shushtar	78k
III	Al Kut	315k
III	Mehran	12k
III	Borujerd	252k
III	Nurabad	74k
III	Azna	47k
II	Ahvaz	841k
II	Ash Shatrah	83k
II	Nahavand	76k
II	Kahriz	767k
II	Malayer	177k
II	Ilam	141k
II	Kermanshah	621k
II	pamas	1k
II	Famast	1k
II	Masjed-e Soleyman	112k
II	Harsin	58k
II	Aligudarz	91k
II	Ramhormoz	39k
II	Sarpol-e Zahab	52k
II	Arak	504k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.