PAGER - M 6.5 - 37.1 km (23.1 mi) WNW of Ferndale, CA

Alert level does not include impacts from earthquake-related hazards such as tsunamis, landslides, fires or liquefaction.

Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: ORANGE

Download Alert PDF What's this?Sunday, January 10th, 2010 at 00:27:39 UTC (16:27:39 local)Location: 40.7° N, 124.7° WDepth: 29kmEvent Id: NC71338066Alert Version: 2Created: 50 weeks, 1 day after earthquake.

Alert Information

Orange alert level for economic losses. Significant damage is likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of the United States. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Green alert level for shaking-related fatalities. There is a low likelihood of casualties.

Estimated Fatalities

ESTIMATED FATALITY ALERT: GREEN
ESTIMATED FATALITIES (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 (GREEN)	73
1 to 9 (YELLOW)	27
10 to 99 (YELLOW)	0
100 to 999 (ORANGE)	0
1 to 10 thousand (RED)	0
10 to 100 thousand (RED)	0
100 thousand + (RED)	0

Estimated Economic Losses

ESTIMATED ECONOMIC ALERT: ORANGE
ESTIMATED VALUE IN USD (LEVEL)	Probability (%)
0 to 1 million (GREEN)	2
1 to 10 million (YELLOW)	10
10 to 100 million (YELLOW)	28
100 million to 1 billion (ORANGE)	35
1 to 10 billion (RED)	19
10 to 100 billion (RED)	5
100 billion + (RED)	1

Detailed Information

Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity		I	II-III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X
Est. Population Exposure		---*	161k*	338k*	17k*	46k	66k	7k	0	0
Perceived Shaking		Not Felt	Weak	Light	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong	Severe	Violent	Extreme
Potential Structure Damage	Resistant	none	none	none	V. Light	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy
Potential Structure Damage	Vulnerable	none	none	none	Light	Moderate	Moderate/Heavy	Heavy	V. Heavy	V. Heavy

*Estimated exposure only includes population within calculated shake map area

Population Exposure
Population per ~1 sq. km. from LandScan

Structure Information Summary

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist.

Historical Earthquakes (with MMI)

Date (UTC)	Dist (km)	Mag	Max MMI (#)	Shaking Deaths
1975-08-01	308	5.8	VIII (13)	0
1980-11-08	61	7.3	IX (17k)	0
1993-09-21	290	6	VIII (26)	1

Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses.

Selected Cities Exposedfrom GeoNames Database of Cities with 1,000 or more residents.

MMI	City	Population
VIII	Ferndale	1k
VII	Eureka	26k
VII	Humboldt Hill	3k
VII	Bayview	3k
VII	Cutten	4k
VII	Pine Hills	3k
VI	McKinleyville	15k
VI	Arcata	17k
IV	Redding	92k
IV	Red Bluff	14k
III	Chico	71k

(k = x1,000)

Nearby Events in the EXPO-CAT Earthquake Catalog
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Deaths		Secondary Effects
#	Date/Time	Mag	Lat, Lon, Depth	Country	Max MMI (Exposed)	Shaking	Total	Secondary Effects
1	1975-08-01 20:20 UTC	5.8	39.5° N, 121.39° W 9km	US	VIII (13)	0	0
2	1980-11-08 10:27 UTC	7.3	41.11° N, 124.3° W 17km	US	IX (17 k)	0	0
3	1983-08-24 13:36 UTC	6.2	40.29° N, 124.63° W 22km	US	VII (2 k)	0	0
4	1987-07-31 23:56 UTC	6	40.39° N, 124.2° W 18km	US	VIII (3)	0	0
5	1991-07-13 02:50 UTC	6.8	42.2° N, 125.77° W 11km	US	V (52 k)	0	0
6	1991-08-17 19:29 UTC	6.1	40.25° N, 124.12° W 12km	US	IX (176)	0	0
7	1991-08-17 22:17 UTC	7	41.75° N, 125.57° W 14km	US	V (155 k)	0	0
8	1992-03-08 03:43 UTC	5.4	40.26° N, 123.97° W 14km	US	VII (43)	0	0
9	1992-04-25 18:06 UTC	7.2	40.34° N, 124.09° W 15km	US	IX (2 k)	0	0	landslide, liquefaction, tsunami
10	1992-04-26 07:41 UTC	6.5	40.51° N, 124.31° W 20km	US	IX (1 k)	0	0
11	1992-04-26 11:18 UTC	6.6	40.42° N, 124.42° W 22km	US	IX (33)	0	0
12	1993-09-21 03:28 UTC	6	42.31° N, 122° W 11km	US	VIII (26)	1	1	landslide
13	1993-09-21 05:45 UTC	5.9	42.35° N, 122.09° W 35km	US	VII (5 k)	0	0
14	1994-09-01 15:15 UTC	7	40.38° N, 125.78° W 11km	US	V (134 k)	0	0
15	1994-12-26 14:10 UTC	5.5	40.71° N, 124.04° W 26km	US	VII (83 k)	0	0
16	1997-01-22 07:17 UTC	5.7	40.21° N, 124.29° W 15km	US	VII (132)	0	0
17	2000-09-03 08:36 UTC	5	38.38° N, 122.41° W 10km	US	VI (79 k)	0	0
18	2005-06-15 02:50 UTC	7.2	41.23° N, 125.98° W 11km	US	V (71 k)	0	0

MMI	City	Population
VIII	Ferndale	1k
VII	Eureka	26k
VII	Humboldt Hill	3k
VII	Bayview	3k
VII	Cutten	4k
VII	Pine Hills	3k
VII	Myrtletown	5k
VII	Fortuna	11k
VI	Hydesville	1k
VI	Rio Dell	3k
VI	McKinleyville	15k
VI	Arcata	17k
VI	Blue Lake	1k
V	Redway	1k
V	Hayfork	2k
IV	Fort Bragg	7k
IV	Laytonville	1k
IV	Weaverville	4k
IV	Crescent City	7k
IV	Willits	5k
IV	Lewiston	1k
IV	Willow Creek	2k
IV	Covelo	1k
IV	Central Valley (historical)	4k
IV	Shasta Lake	11k
IV	Anderson	11k
IV	Redding	92k
IV	Cottonwood	3k
IV	Palo Cedro	1k
IV	Montague	1k
IV	Red Bluff	14k
IV	Corning	7k
IV	Yreka	7k
IV	Los Molinos	2k
IV	Orland	6k
IV	Weed	3k
III	Dunsmuir	2k
III	Mount Shasta	4k
III	Willows	6k
III	Hamilton City	2k
III	McCloud	1k
III	Shingletown	2k
III	Chico	71k
III	Durham	6k
III	Biggs	2k
III	Gridley	6k

(k = x1,000)

PAGER content is automatically generated, and only considers losses due to structural damage. Limitations of input data, shaking estimates, and loss models may add uncertainty. PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence. However, information on the extent of shaking will be uncertain in the minutes and hours following an earthquake and typically improves as additional sensor data and reported intensities are acquired and incorporated into models of the earthquake's source. Users of PAGER estimates should account for uncertainty and always seek the most current PAGER release for any earthquake.