NEPEC Meetings

2013

November 4-5, 2013, Menlo Park, California

The NEPEC met at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) western headquarters in Menlo Park, California. The Council received briefings on the history and current state of scientific investigations of earthquake processes in and around the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California, and engaged in discussion of USGS priorities for instrumentation and scientific investigations in the future. The Council received updates on past topics of discussion, including work with social and behavioral scientists on improving hazard and risk messages; development of improved methods for calculation of short-term aftershock probabilities; USGS collaborative work with the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); status of an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3); and on the delivery of near-real-time earthquake information by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC).

2012

September 17-18, 2012, Golden, Colorado

The NEPEC met at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) western headquarters in Menlo Park, California. The Council received briefings on the history and current state of scientific investigations of earthquake processes in and around the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California, and engaged in discussion of USGS priorities for instrumentation and scientific investigations in the future. The Council received updates on past topics of discussion, including work with social and behavioral scientists on improving hazard and risk messages; development of improved methods for calculation of short-term aftershock probabilities; USGS collaborative work with the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); status of an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3); and on the delivery of near-real-time earthquake information by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC).

2011

November 14-15, 2011, Seattle, Washington

The NEPEC met on the campus of the University of Washington on November 14 and 15. The Council received briefings on lessons learned from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan subduction earthquakes, monitoring and research efforts relating to earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, research and development relating to earthquake early warning and short-term aftershock forecasting, and recent findings from the study of episodic tremor and slip and from the analysis of various seismic hazards in and around the State of Washington. The Council also received brief updates on the project used to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012, and on other topics.

April 16, 2011, Memphis, Tennessee

The NEPEC met at the Crowne Plaza Memphis Downtown on April 16. The Council received a report from the Independent Expert Panel on New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquake Hazards, a subcommittee charged with commenting on the level of hazard posed by future large earthquakes in the region and on priorities for future research to better constrain that hazard. The Council also received briefings on other topics relating to earthquakes in the central US, on earthquake swarms recently active in Arkansas, on communication of seismic hazard in the Pacific Northwest, on the project used to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012, on the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and on other topics.

March 14-15, 2011, Meeting of expert independent panel, Memphis, Tennessee

Noting the substantial uncertainties regarding the history and future of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, in January, 2011 the NEPEC convened an Independent Expert Panel on New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquake Hazard, and charged that eight-member panel with providing a report commenting on the level of hazard posed by future large earthquakes in the region, and on priorities for future research to better constrain that hazard. The panel met by phone several times in February, March and April, and also held a two-day meeting in Memphis, Tennessee in mid-March, in which they interviewed a number of key experts having different knowledge and perspectives on the issues. The panel plans to release a draft report for public comment on or about Monday, April 4, with comments to be received by email to NMSZpanel@gmail.com no later than Sunday, April 10. The NEPEC plans to receive and review the panel's report at its April 16 meeting (see above).

2010

November 3-4, 2010, Pasadena, California

NEPEC met to review plans and progress related to understanding, forecasting and communicating about earthquake occurrence in California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Central United States. The Council discussed forming subcommittees to focus on: (1) methods for rapidly estimating the probability of a large earthquake following a possible foreshock or during a swarm of seismicity, procedures by which Council findings are to be transmitted to the USGS, and the format and content of earthquake advisory statements that may be composed and delivered at times of heightened concern; (2) earthquake occurrence and forecasting in the Pacific Northwest; (3) the level of earthquake hazard in the Central and Eastern U.S.; and (4) review procedures for the project intended to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012.

2009

November 4-5, 2009, Pasadena, California

On November 4, NEPEC met jointly with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC), to review methods for rapidly estimating the probability of a large earthquake following a possible foreshock or during a swarm of seismicity, review and discuss procedures by which Council findings are to be transmitted to the USGS and to the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), and discuss the format and content of earthquake advisory statements that may be composed and delivered at times of heightened concern. Findings of an International Commission convened by the Italian government to provide advice on “operational earthquake forecasting” following the damaging L’Aquila earthquake of April 2009 was also presented. The Councils also discussed review procedures for the project intended to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) in summer 2012. On November 5, NEPEC discussed outcomes of the previous day’s meeting, planned topics to be explored by the Council in future meetings, and received briefings on previous discussion topics, including on scientific issues related to earthquake occurrence in New Madrid Seismic Zone, and an update on the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability.

July 2, NEPEC Subcommittee at CEPEC, Pasadena, California

A subcommittee of the NEPEC attended a meeting hosted by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC), at which attendees examined current understandings of earthquake activity and history, were briefed on new approaches for determining foreshock probabilities, and discussed the crafting of pre-event background scenarios for reference by CEPEC when considering the implications of a potential foreshock or a swarm of small earthquakes.

Agenda (PDF)

August 26, NEPEC Subcommittee at CEPEC, Pasadena, California

A subcommittee of the NEPEC attended a meeting hosted by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC). Attendees reviewed current understandings of earthquake activity, reviewed approaches for calculating earthquake probabilities during an earthquake swarm, began the development of advisory language under various scenarios to present to the Director of CalEMA, and identified ways for CEPEC and NEPEC to more closely coordinate their activities.

Agenda (PDF)

2008

September 10-11, Palm Springs, California

The Council received briefings on the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF2) and relevant activities sponsored by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC); updates on  the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and on various proposed prediction methodologies; a report from a February, 2008 workshop on episodic tremor slip; and discussed issues related to the content and issuance of earthquake advisories.

2007

May 18, Portland, Oregon

Meeting focused on the science and hazard implications of episodic seismic tremor and fault creep detected in the Pacific Northwest from northern California to southern British Columbia. The Council received from scientists on the observations and tectonic context, and from emergency managers on the communication of research findings and their policy implications to governments and the public.

2006

Conference call March 4

This initial discussion of the newly seated Council included discussions of the reasons that the NEPEC was reestablished, scope of NEPEC activities, history of past NEPEC activities and reports, and potential topics for future briefings, meetings, and work.

Call summary (PDF)

May 4-5, Menlo Park, California

Initial meeting of the reconstituted Council included briefings on the Parkfield earthquake experiment, earthquake prediction research supported by NASA, the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), short-term aftershock hazard forecasting,  and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probability (WGCEP).

October 16-17, Riverside, California

The Council received briefings on the Regional Likelihood Methods (RELM) project, the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probability (WGCEP).

Conference call  October 25

The participants discussed options for the Council’s role in the process of developing and reviewing the earthquake rupture forecasts to be delivered by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP).

Call summary (PDF)